Marc Chandler – Recapping the inflation data from this week and changes in Fed expectations

October 15, 2021

Marc Chandler, Managing Partner at Bannockburn Global ForEx and Editor of the Marc to Market website joins me to recap the inflation data released this week. He provides a comparison of the data to last year and the data we saw just a few months ago. We also address the key drivers holding inflation at the higher levels, including energy prices, the labor market, and commodity prices. This all ties into the changes in expectation for Fed policy as we move to next year and a possible rate hike.



Click here to visit Marc’s website and keep up to date on his daily market and data commentary.

    Oct 15, 2021 15:30 PM

    Hope you all enjoyed the PM bounce, but I’m afraid it was a false move.
    Downtrend in PMs and the miners will continue next week.
    Bottom has yet to be seen.

    Oct 15, 2021 15:28 PM

    Silver and the gold and silver miners (all the gold/silver mining ETFs) went up versus gold (real money) today and finished well off of their morning lows. We now have a great/bullish week in the bag.
    Weekly MACD buy signals are coming soon to the ETFs…

      Oct 15, 2021 15:07 PM

      Suprised to see my miners hang in there while the metals were down. IPT looks good, finding more silver so looking to add more Impact.

        Oct 15, 2021 15:41 PM

        IPT just broke its 8 month downtrend and gave its first weekly MACD buy signal in 17 months. Fundamentally, it has never looked less risky.

          Oct 16, 2021 16:25 AM

          Nice. I am thinking ISVLF could pull back a bit more on Monday. Thoughts??

            Oct 16, 2021 16:06 PM

            It sure could pull back more on Monday but the odds of doing so are probably not much better than 50-50. The technicals are mixed across timeframes. For example, the 10, 15 and 30 minute charts have corrected enough to suggest a turn back up and the 5 minute chart looks better than they do. However, the 1 hour chart is on “young” sell signals and points lower while the 2 hour chart remains a net buy but an aged one with mixed signals. The 4 hour and daily charts are on buys that could benefit from a dip lower that doesn’t last long BUT could easily extend without one. The new development that would make me a happily hasty buyer (if I owned little or none) is the new weekly MACD buy signal. It could very easily override the signals of the lesser charts and send IPT significantly higher before it takes a decent break.
            Those who hate drawdowns more than they like a great deal might do better to wait for a material pullback than to be a hasty buyer as I would. I’m more interested in the big picture so the weekly MACD buy signal trumps the rest and I would not berate myself if I bought it and then watched lower prices appear due to those short term considerations. Everyone needs to think about these scenarios and decide for themselves what they are comfortable with. Layering into a position at multiple price points is always a good idea in my book.
            If Monday does begin with more weakness, I wouldn’t be surprised to see ISVLF dip to no lower than about .44 before reversing. That’s still 3.5 to 4 percent lower from yesterday’s close so it probably won’t be there for long if it does get there.

            Oct 16, 2021 16:02 PM

            Thanks for the reply. I’ll watch the open on Monday closely.