Weekend Show – Markets and Metals – A look ahead to the Fed Meeting and Recapping October

October 30, 2021
Full Weekend Show


On this Weekend’s Show we recap the month of October for markets and metals and look ahead to the Fed meeting next week. With a Fed tapper all but guaranteed we will finally get to see how much is priced in. 


It was a good month for commodities broadly but they all came off highs made earlier in the month.


Please keep in touch by emailing us at and We love hearing your thoughts on the companies we interviews throughout the week and key topics you want more discussion on.



  • Segment 1 and 2 – Mike Larson, Editor of The Safe Money Report kicks off the show by sharing his outlook for US markets, the trend in yields, and how a range of commodities are set up to the end of the year.
  • Segment 3 – Jeff Christian, Managing Partner at the CPM Group joins us to elaborate on his Group’s recent long term bullish commentary on the precious metals. We discuss the key drivers for gold, silver, PGMs, and base metals.
  • Segment 4 – We wrap up the Weekend Show with Calibre Mining (TSX:CXB – OTCQB:CXBMF) and the Company’s acquisition of Fiore Gold. Ryan King, VP of Corporate Development and IR at Calibre outlines the key growth factors for the Company, leading to the estimated 245,000 oz/year of gold production.


Exclusive Company Interviews This Week






Mike Larson
Jeff Christian
Calibre Mining – Ryan King
    Oct 30, 2021 30:30 AM

    Thanks again to all the contributors here. There’s heaps of information that has been really helpful….even Joe, who I’m gonna partially agree with here.
    After a disappointing quarter I think AUY needs to be rerated DOWN. Even silver credits didn’t save it, so why pay a high multiple for AUY compared to say, CXB, BTG or KRR, which are less expensive. The same could probably be said for NEM.

      Oct 30, 2021 30:57 AM

      Good thoughts Terry. CXB and KRR that you mentioned are 2 of the better growth oriented gold producers out there with plenty of both operational development upside as well as solid exploration upside, and have grown in weighting in my portfolio personally. AR would be another..
      Yes, thanks to all the KE Report contributors that came on as guests during the week, all the company executives that came on for interviews to update us on their progress, and of course, to all the listeners of the show and the KER crew here on the blog that share their insights with our community.
      Ever Upward!

        Oct 30, 2021 30:11 AM

        Here is an interesting promo piece that (CXB) Calibre put out on their site, that is really well done with many charts, tables, and graphics to put things into perspective:
        3 Big Reasons (And One Really Big Reason) Gold Investors Need To Pay Attention To Calibre Mining Right Now

          Oct 30, 2021 30:26 AM

          David Erfle Discusses the Calibre (CXB.TO) – Fiore (F.V) Acquisition and Tax Loss Selling
          Mining Stock Daily w/ Trevor Hall- 10/26/2021
          “Junior Miner Junky, David Erfle, joined us to discuss his thoughts on the acquisition of Fiore Gold by Calibre Mining. We also chat about the current uptrend in precious metals and some individual junior explorers. David also has some thoughts about the status of 2021 tax loss selling.”

          Oct 30, 2021 30:51 AM

          Ex What is your best estimate of the MRE on Fenelon by WM hopefully early next week. Ounces and G/T. Best guess on the new number coming out of Mart also if you would be so kind. I believe you are a shl if not mistaken

            Oct 30, 2021 30:45 PM

            Hi Monty. Yes, I’m still a shareholder and good question on where (WM) Wallbridge Mining’s maiden resource will come in and at what grade?
            Nobody really knows. I see investors in chat forums pontificating about 5 million-10 million ounces, but I don’t think that is realistic, and that is a very difficult feat to pull off coming out of the gates. I’m personally going to be happy if it comes in around 2 million – 3 million ounces, and extremely happy if it comes in above 3 million ounces and closer to 4 million ounces.
            I’d be a little let down if it was below 2 million ounces, after what feels like waiting an eternity, but then keep in mind, in reality they’ve only been drilling the Area 51, Gabbro and Tobasco – Cayenne zones for just over 3 years now, so it seems like a stretch to already have 4 or 5 million ounces. (again, if they do then I’ll be thrilled of course). It’s just more realistic to plan for a maiden resource of 2-3 million ounces, but my concern is with such high market expectations, that whatever it is may disappoint some investors. If they came out with 2.2 million or 2. 5 million or 2.7 million ounces of gold equivalent, that would be huge win in that Detour Lake area, but some investors that were thinking pie in the sky may get frustrated at that (even though that would be a big win).
            As far as grade, I’m anticipating that the overall bulk mineable deposit targeted for open pit extraction will average between 1 g/t – 2 g/t. They have a large number of intercepts grading between 1 g/t – 2 g/t which will make up the bulk of the mineralization, with various high grade shoots or mineralization to at depth that are the sexier double digit grades of 10 g/t-30 g/t, but that won’t be the majority of the makeup of that deposit. Keep in mind that the Detour Lake mine next door (that Kirkland Lake bought last year) is mostly mining sub 1 g/t material and doing it quite profitably. Again, I see retail investors mostly discussing those headline numbers on the high-grade hits, which are definitely there, but some of them are going to be below what is included in the maiden resource estimate focused on the bulk mining scenario (and not the underground mining scenario). Now if for some reason the team at WM puts out a resource higher than 2 g/t gold, then for that kind of an open pit mine…. then again I’d be incredibly pleased.
            > So if was going to take a wild guess (and that is all it would be) – I’d go with 2.7 million ounces of gold equivalent at 1.8 g/t gold. That would be a big achievement in just 3 years time, but I’m thinking the expectations (at least from retail investors) are much higher than that, and likely misplaced. I could be way off, but that’s my take on it.
            We’ll all know soon enough when their maiden resource comes out, and that will really help the market get their head around the minimum value underpinning things, but again, I see the strength of Wallbridge as their exploration upside and amazing land package (in addition to all their Nickel assets which I don’t believe they are getting much credit for at present). Until then…. Cheers!

      Oct 30, 2021 30:47 AM

      speaking of KRR – here was our interview with Oliver at Karora from earlier this week:
      Karora Resources – Introducing this gold-nickel producer, growing production from 120,000oz/year to +200,000oz/year by 2024
      Korelin Economics Report – Oct 28, 2021

      Oct 30, 2021 30:53 AM

      Terry, I agree with you on AUY—-I purchased a very little of it recently to put it on my watchlist—-I do that with stocks that I don’t want to lose touch with and hope to purchase in larger quantities in the future when prices are lower. AUY felt the wrath of the market on Friday along with other stocks with lower then expected quarterly results. I wouldn’t be surprised to see AUY break out of its’ trading range and start to move lower.

        Oct 30, 2021 30:56 AM

        Hi Doc

        What is your best estimate of the MRE coming hopefully net week for WM. G/T and ounces. What is best guess with stock price where it is. As to what the market is pricing in now. They are also updating Martiniere also. Your thoughts on that is you would be so kind. thanks. I believe if not mistaken you are a shl.

      Oct 30, 2021 30:27 PM

      Yamana : A Bellwether off the Bottom :

    Oct 30, 2021 30:23 AM

    Nomad takes a 2.375% stream on Equinox’s flagship project

    I really like this deal. I am a big Equinox fan and Greenstone is there most important project.

      Oct 30, 2021 30:00 AM

      Yes, I saw that news with Nomad and Equinox. I like and have positions in both companies, and will congratulate Vince and the team at NSR on picking up another solid royalty the next time we have them on the show.

      Oct 30, 2021 30:55 AM

      Thomas, as you probably know from my comments over the last weeks/months, I am also a big fan of EQX; in fact it is one of my largest positions and I am planning on adding to that position on any pull backs.

        Oct 30, 2021 30:05 AM

        Hi Doc – EQX has sure had a nice bump over the last month or so, but then again, so has most of the PM sector. I last bought some on Aug 20th @ $5.94, trimmed a bit off that position on Oct 13th @ $8.07.
        Equinox closed the week on Friday at $7.43 (but it was up around $8.20 just a week ago), so it’s started to digest that bounce and has moved back down some, to where I may add a bit if it gets back down below $7 again.

          Oct 30, 2021 30:12 AM

          Ex, 6 is an excellent technical area to purchase more—same area that I’ll purchase more.

            Oct 30, 2021 30:52 PM

            Sounds good Doc. Yes, if EQX got back down to $6 again, I’d definitely add some to the heap, (again I bought some in late August just under $6, and was happy to pick up shares at that level and would do the same thing again). However, I’d say anywhere between $6-$7 is a great place to accumulate more for the longer term valuation higher where we’ll see it back to double digits in the teens for an easy double from there. Really it is very likely a double from even current levels, on a safer well-run producer.
            That’s maybe not as zesty as a 5-10 bagger on the exploration plays or the small producers with exploration upside, but I believe there is a place in one’s portfolio’s for a slow and steady double with much less risk for a portion of ones funds, similar to a number of the royalty companies at this point in their valuations. If a real PM mania kicks in then EQX and the royalty companies may even go up 3 times or 4 times, but my baseline thesis in those is at least a double in the next 12-18 months, and then a potential to be a 3x-4x gainer in 2-3 years.

          Oct 30, 2021 30:30 PM

          $6 would be great – I doubt a bit that we see this level again – hoping that tax loss season will still come

          Ex might be right, that below $7 is already a good time to buy

          I am not really good in trading. Long term the current pull back is probably a good buy

    Oct 30, 2021 30:22 AM

    DOLLAR : Upthrust into FOMC & NFP Week :

      Oct 30, 2021 30:51 AM

      SILVER : Holding the Crow Line (NY Time now 20211030.1050)

      Oct 30, 2021 30:06 AM

      Thanks BDC, it will be interesting to see how the greenback performs next week, with a particularly pivotal Fed meeting on tap. Markets are waiting for clarity on if the Fed is indeed moving forward with the start of tapering, and how much per month the reduction in bond purchases will be (most estimate about $15 billion per month will be removed sequentially until they are not buying any bonds by June 2022).
      If for any reason the Fed waivers and kicks the can down the road, that could get really interesting, but most do expect the central banksters to move forward with the start of tapering, and it should be mostly priced into markets at this point. We’ll see how it goes…

        Oct 30, 2021 30:30 AM

        Lawrence Lepard – The U.S. dollar ‘as we know it’ will be dead in 10 yrs, bitcoin price to hit $2 million in 5 yrs
        Kitco News – Oct 20, 2021

          Oct 30, 2021 30:32 AM

          Lyn Alden – Bitcoin crashed last time it hit an all-time high, what about this time?
          Kitco News – Oct 26, 2021

          0:00 – Stagflation
          2:51 – Biggest macroeconomic risks
          7:59 – Inflation hedges
          14:15 – Bitcoin
          20:00 – Crypto winter

            Oct 31, 2021 31:00 AM

            That was a particularly great segment with Lyn Alden, as are most of her segments, and definitely worth the time to review that discussion with David from Kitco.

      Oct 30, 2021 30:34 AM

      Jeff Christian – The Truth on Gold, Silver, the US Dollar, & China that Investors Don’t Want to Hear
      The Jay Martin Show – Oct 9, 2021

    Oct 30, 2021 30:13 AM

    I am bullish on uranium but playing devils advocate…….with one of the factors for supply being less than demand being the physical purchase by non users of uranium purely for investment purposes, is there not a price level where these investments in uranium will be sold???

      Oct 30, 2021 30:23 AM

      Some other warehousers and funds that are holders of physical uranium may hit the markets with some supply at these prices in the high $40’s or especially if things hover in the low $50s, but then again, now Kazakhstan is going to be coming to the market with another physical Uranium fund that will mop up even more supply as it comes to market, similar to Yellowcake and the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust.
      It is likely that utility companies are going to have to face the reality that it is time to come to the table with the Uranium producers and developers and negotiate new longer-term off-take agreements in the $50’s or for some projects to come back online even up to the $60s.

        Oct 30, 2021 30:50 AM

        Uranium Market Minute Episode 22: Uranium SUPER-CYCLE Incoming?
        Justin Huhn – Uranium Insider – Oct 21, 2021

          Oct 30, 2021 30:53 AM

          Uranium Market Minute Episode 25: Sprott Physical Uranium Trust – Steady as She Goes
          Justin Huhn – Uranium Insider – Oct 26, 2021

    Oct 30, 2021 30:15 AM

    Danielle DiMartino Booth – ‘Aggressively’ Hold These Assets As Fed Can’t Acknowledge Problematic Inflation
    Kitco News – Oct 27, 2021
    “The Federal Reserve has kept its monetary policy “inappropriately” too easy for too long, triggering inflation. And now the central bank could be forced to tighten aggressively,” said Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of Quill Intelligence.
    “Quantitative easing is a failed experiment,” Booth told Michelle Makori, editor-in-chief of Kitco News. “We have much more going on here than supply chain disruptions. And there are much more problematic forms of inflation that I don’t think [Fed Chair] Jerome Powell is prepared to acknowledge. But it is the sticky type of inflation that the Fed has to be most concerned with. And that is beginning to bleed through into housing and rental inflation.”

      Oct 30, 2021 30:45 AM

      Could Powell be tasked to play a 21st Century ‘Paul Volcker’?

        Oct 30, 2021 30:21 PM

        Not a chance. Volcker’s interest rate peak of 15.8% (10 year) happened in September 1981, 36 years after the 1.7% all-time low in 1945. In 2016, we saw a new all-time low of 1.5%. That was our 1945, 35 years after Volcker. Perfect. Or so we thought. Thanks to the brazen psychopaths in charge, a new record low was reached in August last year at a whopping 67% below the 2016 low (0.5%). My point is that Volcker came onto the seen at what would’ve been the top anyway. Market forces/mother nature were doing their thing in response to other natural market forces as well as the parasite/political class doing their thing. Commie bankster puppet Nixon brought us the blow-off in inflation and therefore interest rates. Volcker’s heroics were manufactured by the media.
        The top, or “Volcker period” for this cycle is decades away and real rates must remain negative most of the time until we get there.
        Don’t forget that nominal rates rose with gold throughout the 1970s but real rates stayed negative until the end when they spiked to something like 6%. It is also worth noting that USA, Inc. was the world’s number one creditor back then while today it is the number one debtor.
        The deflations have been wrong all a long and are really going to be baffled in the years ahead.

          Oct 30, 2021 30:55 PM

          Agreed Matthew. Well-stated.

            Oct 30, 2021 30:43 PM

            40 years ago the policies Volcker was chosen to institute sealed the destruction of much American heavy industry, this after Kissinger had cajoled Nixon and Connolly into dumping Bretton Woods, while bursting open the door to cheap-labor China.
            Could something similar happen again? You bet!

          Oct 30, 2021 30:52 PM

          A typo caught my eye in my last line: “deflations” should be deflationists.

          BDC: It’s not gonna happen. You’ll see.

            Oct 31, 2021 31:17 AM

            Yep. The deflationists have been wrong all along, and where they used to be SO vocal about the impending doom and everything going down the toilet in a market implosion, they’ve been relatively MIA over the last 2 years as inflation has reared it’s ugly head again. It was inevitable after all the money printing and central bank intervention, and that is why anyone with 2 brain cells to rub together knew Pumping Powell was full of horse dung when he stated in January and February that inflation would only be “transitory” and last a month or two.
            Initially the general markets thought it would be over by March or April,; and people came out take victory laps in the summer when there was a slight downtick in the rate of inflation but…. Nope…. Most of us on this site, and thankfully most of the guests we brought on the KER show, saw through this BS narrative, and knew the only thing that would be transitory was the use of the word “transitory” to describe inflation. It’s been here all year long and at higher levels than the pre-pandemic economy, so the proof is in the pudding at this point.
            Even though there were some things like lumber or used car prices that may have been supply chain related, or some skewed stats due to the base effect and year-over-year calculations from the lock-downs in 2020 to the reopening trade in 2021, that doesn’t explain the run up in Oil, Nat Gas, Copper, Zinc, Lead, Aluminum, Agricultural commodities. The rising wages, when paired with higher input costs and transportation/energy costs lead to a classic “cost-push inflation” model, and it was as obvious in early 2021 when the central banksters were trying push the transitory narrative, as it is now.
            Even though Jeff Christian made the point that it’s a nuanced answer with some areas of supply chain being transitory, and others being stickier, he still went on to focus on the base effect from 2021 to 2022 and say we may see the numbers cool back off, but that misses the point really. The point is that inflation at 5% or 4% or even 3% if that is where things pull back to next year, is still far higher than where interest rates are at with the 10 year hovering around the 1.3%-1.6% range most of this year. Inflation is also higher than where it has historically been for more than a decade, so even a rate of 3% is not “transitory” is far higher the sub 1% – 2% inflation we saw since the Great Financial Crisis.
            That means that Real Rates with these CPI inflation readings have been and are still negative, and will remain negative into next year even if the year over year rates of inflation pull back some. It’s also a far cry from the month or two “transitory” inflation the Fed and the lame stream financial media was pushing at the beginning of 2021.
            Even if the Fed does hike interest rates in 2022, there is no way they can mathematically hike them over inflation to 3% 4% 5% etc… without crushing the financial system…. so they won’t. That means the Fed, once again, will remain “behind the curve,” just like they always have been, and will sacrifice running inflation to focus on employment instead. This means that inflation will continue to erode every citizens purchasing power, and US treasuries are a guaranteed loser of a bet for the foreseeable future. It will be interesting to see where the money in bonds rotates into, and it’s likely that it goes a few different places – general markets, energy sector, cryptos, and yes… even some into the precious metals. It won’t take a very big amount of capital flows to pour into the tiny PM sector in the next 2-3 years to really move the sector in a disproportionate way compared to other larger sectors.

            Oct 31, 2021 31:52 AM

            You two are most likely correct.
            The odds are long in your favor,
            but certitude should be avoided.

            Oct 31, 2021 31:45 PM

            Good point BDC. Nothing is for certain in these crazy markets, and with the action and intervention we’ve seen in both fiscal and monetary policy the last few years. While anything is possible, it is still best to work in probabilities. That’s all any of us can do when sailing in these uncharted waters.

            Oct 31, 2021 31:21 PM

            I completely agree about avoiding certitude generally so when I show it, it’s with that in mind. I am that sure that they will not aggressively raise interest rates anytime soon. Market forces could give lurches against the central planners but positive real rates won’t be tolerated.

      Oct 30, 2021 30:01 AM

      Great interview with DDB. She sounds very open about the Fed and politics. Digital currencies sound threatening as the new fiat as opposed to an investment option.

        Oct 30, 2021 30:58 PM

        Absolutely Lakedweller2. DDB is a very sharp macro economics thought leader, and if I see her interviewed I try and tune in to get her take on things. She has had the same basis premise for over a decade now, but in 2021 heading into 2022 we are much closer to the scenario she’s warned about for years, and she updates her message as the Fed experiment and MMT consequences pile up, and as inflation has reared it’s head, precisely as she projected it would. Good stuff!

    Oct 30, 2021 30:41 AM

    ‘How Can This Possibly Not Be A Bubble?’
    Jesse Felder – The Felder Report (10/30/2021)

    Oct 30, 2021 30:49 AM

    There is so much time wasted everywhere discussing “The Troubles and The Problems of The Federal Reserve Board”, what they should be talking about is, “We need to abolish The Federal Reserve Board.” All the problems the economy faces have been caused by The Federal Reserve Board, and you can’t keep expecting The Governors of The Fed to use the same solutions that got us here and expect a different outcome. The Reserve Board is beaten, we need to abolish it and institute sound money. Otherwise the problems will keep getting worse until there is a crash, and then the politicians will turn to their masters “The Bankers”, and this mess will start all over again. Financial insanity and madness are what has been the norm since the creatures of Jekyll Island took over in 1913.

    Oct 30, 2021 30:30 AM

    The PM market is terribly weak and will likely get very bad over the next few months.
    Any rally should be sold.
    I’ve been saying for awhile that the miners will be decimated… rising costs, lower PM prices = burning the candle at both ends and shareholders caught in the middle will get burned.
    Newmont confirmed this with their dismal earnings report and guidance.
    Gold has nothing going for it right now, crypto has captured the imagination and the wallet of many people who normally would be buying gold during times like this. It’s nonsense, but you can’t tell that to anyone who is into it.
    I suspect this crypto nonsense was released to capture $$ to put a lid on inflation, sopping up gobs of capital that normally would have gone into gold and other assets. Then, when enough of that excess money is captured…. POOF! They’ll pull the plug on it and all that $$ will go to money heaven. People will freak out, but there will be nothing they can do about it.
    It’s the only explanation I have for this crypto nonsense.
    PMs are dead in the water for the foreseeable future. You’d be better off sitting in cash, because god knows you’ll need it. At least you can only count on inflation reducing your wealth rather than a stock plunging by 1-3% a day.

      Oct 30, 2021 30:18 PM

      Joe, your points are well founded: they make sense; however, when has common sense and rationality reigned? None of us know the future, including ‘those in control’.
      Every significant next moment is a 50/50 proposition. Whether 50:1, 100:1, or 1000:1, the next one could be that ‘one’.
      Las Vegas casino owners count on probabilities to overcome such downturns. With volume, and ‘odds’, they win the bet most every time.

      Oct 30, 2021 30:06 PM

      Joe you could be right that there are a few more months of pain in store for the PM sector, but you were also echoing that same perma-bear message in late August through early September, when that was actually a good time to have been accumulating the miners, and since then many are up double-digits 20%-40%, which has been a great tradable rally for anyone that dared to “buy low.”
      Personally, I took tax loss sales in mid July, and bought or added more to about 2 dozen names + over a month later in late August through mid September, and the vast majority of those are nicely in the green at this point. Even if they do pull back some from here, I’m not expecting a washout, because the sector is already washed out.
      Also, if you wrong and the PMs just tread sideways or blast higher, then folks listening and selling everything here would be chasing higher prices (which is what longer term bull markets eventually do…. shake off as many riders off the back of the bull and inflict the most pain as possible as it climbs the wall of worry). It always amazes me that people think they need to go “all-in” or be “all-out” when it is much safer and more strategic to buy in tranches and sell in tranches, to tier into a good cost basis and then fade out of rallies in several tiers.

        Oct 30, 2021 30:49 PM

        Gold and Silver To ‘Eclipse’ Record Highs In 6 months, This Is The Trigger

        Kitco News – Oct 30, 2021
        “It’s been ‘a mad world’ out there with record-high equities, real estate and more. But the long-awaited surge in gold and silver is coming in the next six months,” said Mike Larson, senior analyst at Weiss Ratings.
        “If you’re in a world where many assets are over-valued, where real estate is extremely highly valued, stocks are extremely highly valued, and so on. What hasn’t run up and remains relatively cheap? The biggest, most obvious answer to me is precious metals. And of course, the shares of the companies that mine them,” Larson told Michelle Makori, editor-in-chief of Kitco News, on the sidelines of the New Orleans Investment Conference.
        “What’s been holding gold and silver back this year is the fear that the Federal Reserve will have to act aggressively and raise interest rates quickly in order to fight off inflation.”
        But that is not going to happen, according to Larson. “There’s going to be a realization in early 2022 that the Fed is not going to be able to be aggressive. People need to realize that this Fed is very tentative. It’s a Fed that has a lot of political pressure to favor the employment side of its mandate over inflation.”

          Oct 30, 2021 30:48 PM

          Larson is correct; the Fed will not aggressively raise interest rates to fight inflation. The herd is worried for nothing.

            Oct 31, 2021 31:20 AM

            Agreed. Mike Larson made a similar point here on the weekend show, but I felt he made the point better on that Kitco interview.

    Oct 30, 2021 30:42 AM

    Joe, there is a lot of money to be made in the commodity markets if you are diversified in your thinking and keep your money moving around. When I read the Bullboards, which are called that because they are full of Bull, most of the so called investors are only in the one stock, never read about the fantastic opportunities as money twists and turns and fall in love with their investment. They aren’t traders they are suckers that are marks for the people that constantly do research and move their capital around, ever aware of the dangers inherent in stock investing. Traders will do well, buy and hold has rarely worked because the kind of people who keep the same stocks aren’t contrarians and never book a profit when it is available, always believing that their investment will go higher. Not understanding that markets go up and down and when they go down the money rarely returns to the same investment, is a loser’s game.

    As far as crypto’s are concerned most people don’t view them as an alternative to the dollar or gold. They are mostly greed driven and will never sell in time and will see their money got to money heaven. Crypto’s will be banished by The Bankers and the government because they view it as a threat to their monetary control. I think on that point we can agree. DT

      Oct 30, 2021 30:48 PM

      Some interesting thoughts there to mull over DT. Thanks for sharing your unique perspective sir.

      Oct 30, 2021 30:46 PM

      I prefer a mixed bag. I have made the most in the ones I have held the longest…but only because they kept performing. The best performers have funded the ones I have flipped more. But, the biggest problem I have experienced is the limited windows of time that is permitted for miner performance. It forces fast trades and long term often is a fantasy. Two months here, two months there and prolonged periods of decline or sideways moves. What is successful but rare, is the exceptional quality play that succeeds in spite of price suppression and can extend its price performance when the pack is stifled.
      That’s why I say, the fast trade may work out of necessity, but it is the long trade that may be the better producer. It is tough when the purpose of intervention is to prevent any long term momentum as it would threaten the “perception” that a fiat currency is not failing.

        Oct 31, 2021 31:11 AM

        It really does come down to trading the junior mining space, as you mentioned Lakedweller2, with some being short duration swing-trades for the base hits, and a few exceptional companies, being able to truly be “buy and hold” speculations for longer durations. It is just quite rare for any company to be able to sustain quality news flow and growth, to where they buck the underlying trends in the sector and just keep running higher.
        For example I remember moves in some stocks moving counter to the rest of the herd of miners in the past like 2014-2016 in Newmarket, Richmont, Lake Shore Gold, Claude, etc… back at the end of the last bear market as they started moving up first on fundamental operational news, or in some of the rough patches over the last few years in 2017-2019 where K92 Mining, Atlantic Gold, or Minera Alamos had bucked the trend of other producers/developers. There were also dozens of small explorers that popped on drill news success and sustained some level of success even during bearish moves in the PMs, showing that true discoveries get rewarded (like Silvercrest, Great Bear, GT Gold, Tudor, Skeena, etc… and more recently companies like New Found Gold and the other Newfoundland area play stocks, or Rupert resources, or Eskay Mining, etc…).
        One of the more recent examples from this year has been Emerita Resources on the back of their legal successes and exploration success where EMO has bucked the trend of most other companies in 2021. It has been a story marching to beat of it’s own drum and a unique scenario in and of itself, so hats off to you and Doc Jones for doing fantastic in that trade.
        In general though, most of the people that have been “buy and hold” investors for long periods of time over the last decade, have either been stuck in a down draft, or sideways channel. Either they bought into strength and watched the valuations decay over time as more dilution and endless capital raises affected many stocks, or some of the larger majors essentially went nowhere in a sideways whipsaw pricing channel unable to created sustained runs for investors. Of course, there area few exceptions, but they are just that… exceptions.
        For the vast majority of the gold and silver stocks, they have been and still are just trades, and those that bought the dips and sold the rips over the last decade have fared MUCH better than those that simply bought and held. This is why some have still been able to grow their portfolio size from year to year, while many are sitting on cumulative loses from 2011 to 2021, because of difference in understanding, approach, and strategy. The sector is seasonal, volatile, and oscillates from despair to euphoria quickly, and the mining stocks… even more so. Those moments of despair need to be capitalized on with buying, and the euphoric moments need to be sold into… Rinse and repeat.
        As we’ve pointed out on here so many times when people categorically say the sector has gone nowhere or is in a decade bear market, there have been plenty of nice tradable rallies over periods of time that could have resulted in multibagger gains, but investors needed to buy into oversold setups and then sell into overbought setups and not get married to any stocks.
        There was the big 8 month surge in mining stocks from Jan 2016 – August 2016, the Q1 Runs (really from late December – mid Feb or early March) in 2017, 2018, 2019, there was the smaller fall rallies into winter in 2017, 2018, and the more extended surge in 2019 that went from the summer to the Q1 of 2020. Then after the Pandemic Crash of 2020 in March, there was the epic move higher from mid-March 2020 through August of 2020, but again, by late July 2020 the BPGDM was hitting readings of 100 for several weeks, so that was the time to trim again. Well, I did trim in July/Aug of 2020, but now in retrospect, we know looking back it would have been better in the vast majority of miners to have sold completely out of the space and waited a full year until March of 2021.
        However, even in March of 2021, earlier this year, there was a nice dive down in pricing into that double-bottom in Gold at $1673 / $1677 where the miners really sold down hard. Just like in 2020, that March weakness and extreme oversold condition was a buy in the miners, and then they rallied for a few months into this summer in June, that was a great trade. Most investors in March were calling for Gold to break down into the low $1600’s or even the high $1500’s though, so as a result, few had the gonads to buy into that March weakness, but those that did were rewarded with a several month rally from late March through early June.
        . It was obvious though, by many comments here and elsewhere, that most people have not been trading this sector like that, and many have just been sitting in positions and moping at the malaise (especially from many of the comments over at where many people seem to fall in love with the early stage explorers they hold) . There are some active traders here and elsewhere though, like yourself David, that did actively trade during those periods, and scooped up some nice valuation scalps, and that has been the way to play it ever since this bull market started in early 2016 in the miners. It’s definitely not easy, and if one get’s wrong-footed in the trend it is easy to get out of synch with the ebbs and flows of the sector, so many traders have been served losses by trying to be the hero going in big with a concentrated bet on drill play, or chasing a hot shiny object higher, only to see it do a return trip where they get stuck as a bag-holder or blow up their trading account getting too aggressive. Still, for those with diversified portfolios, and the propensity to buy during the periods of the worst sentiment, and light up during the uplifts, there has been money to be made in this sector since 2016.
        We’ve all just experienced yet another bounce recently, that rewarded those traders that bought more miners or added to positions from mid-August to mid-September, and just had about a month of double-digit returns coming into late October, that would have outperformed most other returns that generalists got in tradition stocks and mutual funds all year long. Once again though, few investors were actually buying into the weakness 1-2 months ago, and so another rally came and went.
        For those people that sat idly by, and did not buy a few months back, their rose-colored glasses know only the longer term pain, because they’ve missed rally after rally of shorter-duration gains, and they did not make hay while the sun was shinning… so they’ve become sector rain clouds.
        Sometimes the sun doesn’t shine but a month or two in this sector, with the longest runs only lasting 3-8 months. That means if people have wanted to harvest gains since the kickoff of the bull market in January of 2016, then they had to buy weakness and sell into strength, and most waited for too much evidence of a uptrend BEFORE they got positioned, which had them buying the peaks, and then they held into pullbacks and didn’t buy into weakness, but rather they whined into weakness.
        Bottom line: There have been very few periods of time since the PM market topped in late 2011 where investors could just buy and hold for years for the best performance. This isn’t the tech sector or social media stocks, it is a cyclical sector where traders need to be incredibly nimble. I guess technically those that bought in early 2016 could have held through the sideways chop and whipsaws of 2017 and 2018 and the first half of 2019, and waited for things to pick up again from mid-2019 through mid-2020 and still done well if they sold into the Summer rally of 2020, but most didn’t do that. Also, to have bought in early 2016 and done nothing but hold to 2020 would have had a lot of “opportunity cost” and “dead money” for years in the middle from mid-2016 to mid 2019, if they were just holding and not actively managing their portfolios, so that still wouldn’t have been the right strategy.
        Again, the commodity sector and monetary metals, and especially their related miners, are not general stock market blue chip stocks or the FAANG stocks that can just be bought and held into perpetuity for a decade. Where people get it wrong and mix in philosophies from other sectors is that those generalist stocks (like the DOW, Nasdaq, or S&P 500 indexes or the dividend paying blue chip stocks) are the kinds of stocks Jessie Livermore was discussing when he wrote about being an “old turkey” and “buying right and sitting tight.”
        People unfortunately extrapolated that advice for the general markets and tried to apply it to the mining stocks for the last decade and made bad decisions to sit in losing trades for far too long as a result. I remember in the summer of 2016 all the people extolling the virtues of being an “old turkey”, and we saw that again in the summer of 2020. All they ended up being were straight-up turkeys though. Most of the best wins in the resource stocks, whether it was gold/silver, or the palladium stocks, or copper stocks, or lithium stocks, or uranium stocks, were short duration trades over a few months or maybe in the best-in-class companies over 1-2 year periods. Even the best stocks eventually peaked out and traded sideways or pulled back down from their highs after the new buying got exhausted. There has been no compelling reason to “buy and hold” the resource stocks since the period from early 2009-late 2011. Those that were old turkey in this sector since that time, were served up at the farmhouse table as roadkill long ago.
        The consolation prize is that moving into next year, when the Fed policies around hiking rates come to forefront, we may actually be getting closer to a time where people could buy and hold for a period of time from 2022 into 2023 or 2024 and be rewarded over a longer stretch of time. It may be more reminiscent of that 2009 – 2011 period again. However, they should have been accumulating into the weakness in the middle of this year, or any future weakness we see over the next few months, and sadly most haven’t or won’t buy these lows, and will wait for too much proof next year once the easy money is made. We just saw this exact same thing play out in the Lithium stocks and Uranium stocks. People quit believing the eventually rally was coming, they ignored all the signs fundamentally and technically that the move was upon us, and then waited until the stocks went up 3x, 5x, 8x, 10x to finally start taking notice, having missed all the easiest returns. That’s the way it’s always been and is the way it will always be, and that is what makes a market.
        Ever upward!

          Oct 31, 2021 31:05 AM

          Hi Ex/Shad, excellent piece on trading, journalism is just one of the many feathers in your hat.

            Oct 31, 2021 31:42 PM

            Haha! Thanks DT. Happy Halloween!

            Oct 31, 2021 31:13 PM

            Hi Ex, I have a recording of Jacob Marley from The 1952 production of a Christmas carol with Alistair Sims that I play on Halloween. It scares me, can you imagine what it does to the kids. Scrooge you have labored on your chains these many years! LOL!

            Nov 01, 2021 01:52 AM

            Haha! Good call on the scary Scrooge quotes DT.

          Oct 31, 2021 31:42 PM

          Great summary. Although Great Bear is my second largest position and I have held it the longest, I don’t have a single buy, much less a stock in my portfolio that qualifies for a long term gain. If it makes a profit, which allows me to sell a few shares and buy something else at a discount, then I will flip some shares. Even though my first buys of GBR were around .40 cents, my lowest cost shares remaining are probably about $10 or more. So I guess a long term hold means holding a stock with a certain “name” and not shares qualifying for a taxable long term event. I am determined to hold some Emerita long term which means I have to make it to May…I already sold my Aprils. The house looks good with the new paint job and roof…. :). So I guess long term means longer than most. Ride it a little longer because of performance. But, not dump it all at once. Most I just dump and roll.

            Nov 01, 2021 01:55 AM

            Good thoughts Lakedweller2, on Great Bear, on when to hold em’ and when to fold em’, but also on taking your profits from 2020 and putting them into the tangible home repairs. A wise move indeed.

          Oct 31, 2021 31:10 PM

          Good stuff. Graduate level.
          Required reading for newbies.

            Nov 01, 2021 01:57 AM

            Thanks BDC. Just some stream-of-consciousness thoughts to mull over on the more short-lived windows of time available to harvest gains in the resource stocks, whether they are gold/silver, palladium, copper, lithium, uranium, etc… It’s just a different kind of investing strategy compared to those longer term buy & hold strategies that work better in the general markets and more traditional sectors like tech, healthcare, financials, consumer discretionary, etc…

    Oct 30, 2021 30:57 AM

    Thanks for the great show Kory and Ex!! I’m a buyer of Calibre now!!

      Oct 30, 2021 30:59 PM

      Really? At this price? Why?
      They just purchased another company, it’s going to take the better part of a year to digest that acquisition. Assuming everything goes off as planned, the stock has zero upside momentum.
      The only thing that could help would be if the POG goes up, and it’s clearly not doing that.
      You may consider other stocks that pay a dividend, like AEM. They are going to be in the same boat, digesting the acquisition of KL, but at least you’ll get paid to wait with a decent dividend.
      But even with that, their stock price will suffer as well.
      The only impetus for buying Calibre would be if the stocks goes below 1 dollar USD, and even then with the weakness in gold for the next year you’ll probably be able to get it for 50-75 cents.
      Good luck.

      Oct 30, 2021 30:16 PM

      Thanks Charles. Yes, Calibre is one of the better growth oriented producers out there, like Karora or Argonaut Gold, and I’m as excited about their exploration and development upside (to bring on more spokes to their hubs) as I am about their potential operational upside with lowering costs and expanding production metrics.
      In Nicaragua, when CXB brings in their Eastern Borosi project in the next year or two into the production profile it will be a very transformative boon to production there, and they also have new discoveries at Panteon north, at Tigra (outside their pit shell resources), near their Libertad Mill, and a new gold zone near their Limon complex at their Portal target. Lots of room to bring more ounces into production there over the next few years.
      With the Fiore assets, as Ryan pointed out in the interview, they believe they can take advantage of all the mine, expanded heap leach pad, and increased crushing and milling investments that Fiore made at their Pan mine while still expanding with exploration and mine life. Then next the nearby Gold Rock project will be a substantial development asset to bring into production in the next 2 years that will be transformative for the Nevada operations, essentially doubling them. Beyond that there is still a lot of exploration upside at both the Illipah and Golden Eagle projects for that blue sky potential.
      Ryan mentioned that pro-forma they could see a production profile in 2022 in the mid 200,000 ounces per year (pushing 250,000) ounces. Many peer gold producers at 200,000 ounces per year would be in the $1.3 Billion valuation at today’s prices and currently Calibre is at a $425 Million valuation, so it’s easy to see them going up 2-3 times in valuation just on that.
      However, Ryan also mentioned that as Eastern Borosi in Nicaragua comes online by 2023 and same thing with Gold Rock in Nevada, that their production profile could be up in the 350,000 per ounce production profile in 2 years, so that will be even further upside giving them possibly a 4x potential from here, and that is if gold prices stayed at $1800, which is unlikely. If we see an increase in gold prices back into the $1900’s or $2000’s again, then Calibre has even more potential than that for even further valuation increases to get them more in line with their peer group.
      Despite Joe’s comments above, to the contrary AEM/KL doesn’t have that kind of organic growth potential on a percentage basis of their current valuation, and as a Major with far more eyeballs and analysts following both companies and the new combined entity, AEM/KL is already priced more fairly, with not nearly as much of a rerating potential as CXB/F will have over the next 2 years.

        Oct 30, 2021 30:38 PM

        I lived Costa Rica in 2008 and everything bad that happened always blamed on Nicaraguans. Lots of banditos up there. I got held up one night coming home from the pub and everybody said it must have been a Nicaraguan.

          Oct 31, 2021 31:17 AM

          Ha! Well, thanks for sharing that story Terry. Yeah, I think Nicaragua has done a lot over the last few years to improve things politically and for foreign investment of capital.
          I’ve personally done quite well in my only 2 positions in Nicaragua this year in both Calibre and Mako Mining, with a few solid swing-trades in both, and currently nice green in the money positions in both. I was secretly hoping that Calibre would takeover Mako Mining to create an even larger Nicaraguan base of operations, but that can always happen further down the road when Mako really spreads it’s wings as a new producer and gets its reserves built up and expands it’s production profile. As mentioned above, I’m a fan of the transaction for Calibre to diversify it’s jurisdiction risk by picking up Fiore in Nevada for now, and there is plenty of room to grow both operations and exploration at both complexes for the next 2 years. That will time out well with when Mako Mining has had more time to show the marketplace what they can do, and then maybe Calibre and Mako can join forces down the road…

            Oct 31, 2021 31:54 PM

            MKO numbers are impressive. Producing now with more to come.

            Oct 31, 2021 31:06 PM

            A concern with Mako is 659,000,000 shares outstanding, which is considerably more than the usual there. It’s more Aussie style. Now they have this NCIB deal where they repurchase some shares. A little strange.

            Nov 01, 2021 01:04 PM

            Yep, Mako Mining is blowing and going and now that they are in commercial production, they should not have to dilute the share-count much further. Most of that expanded share-count came from the prior situation with Golden Reign and Marlin, before being merged to form the new Mako Mining entity with a focus on production and exploration. Far more important to me than a sharecount on a company is where it is valued in market cap, as that is really where the rubber meets the road on share price x share count. I get excited when I look at Mako’s market cap at $205 Million US, and then consider that many other producers are trading a multiples of that, (not to mention to all the exploration stocks trading at multiples of MKO that don’t have economic studies or permits or mines & mills built, etc…). In that sense Mako still looks like it is at relatively cheap valuation overall.

    Oct 30, 2021 30:59 PM

    IPT is up 65% versus NEM since August and is going to beat it for a long time to come.
    IPT:NEM daily:

      Oct 30, 2021 30:21 PM

      +1 I’ve loved the recent run up in IPT, and believe there is substantial room to run many multiples higher as the PM bull market gets more traction in 2022 and 2023. As mentioned previously, I’d added more tranches of Impact Silver on Aug. 23, Aug. 31, and Sept 16th, which has worked out pretty well thus far, with those well in the green, and my overall position well in the green. I’m also anticipating that Fred and the exploration team will also pull more rabbits out of the hat through the drill bit, and believe they’ll keep hitting pay-dirt for not just Silver, but also at some of their Gold and Copper targets they’ll be testing.

      Oct 30, 2021 30:21 PM

      Impact..Impressive. This is the first and best silver story I’ve had since my first wife got my junk silver stash back in 1995.

    Oct 30, 2021 30:17 PM

    Another black eye for the mining industry in Peru and the growing jurisdiction risk in certain local communities there.

    Alex Black @BlackAlex58 – 7:00 AM · Oct 30, 2021·Twitter
    “The Apumayo mine camp in Ayacucho, Peru in flames. People in the sierra of Peru now feel empowered by the communist govt to take matters into their own hands when they dont agree with mine owners. Not a good precedent for Peru mining!”

    Oct 31, 2021 31:05 PM

    The Ruble collapse 1998…gold saved the ruling elite…Then they bought everything…they still rule everything…lmao

    Oct 31, 2021 31:33 PM

    There’s an upside gap in the EUR/USD tonight, which may fill in short order.
    If so, this could mean a near-term pop (or better) in the PM Miners Monday.

      Nov 01, 2021 01:06 AM

      Wrong! It’s actually the breakdown gap from early Friday.
      This may mean going into the Wednesday FOMC at 1800.

    Oct 31, 2021 31:55 PM

    My first acquaintance with this:$BPGDM
    Weekly(CBD): 10.76 — Now CW(D): Target F
    Daily (ABCD): 10.00 — Now CW(B): Target D
    GUESS: Two Chapman Wave steps down to 10.38

    Oct 31, 2021 31:05 PM

    Alll Aussie U miners down Monday AM, except Paladin(PDN), which is a little stronger being a near term producer, I guess.
    Phosphate miner Avenira(AEV) up strong lately, big share volume but not much in dollar terms.

    Oct 31, 2021 31:17 PM

    It is interesting that of all the gold and silver related ETFs and the metals themselves, only SGDJ and SLV finished the week above their anchored VWAPs based on the govid crash lows over 19 months ago. SGDJ now has three straight weeks above it while SLV has two. Gold, GLD, IAU, OUNZ, PHYS, PSLV, GDX, GDXJ, SIL, and SILJ all have zero weekly closes above that anchored VWAP and Silver has one for the week that ended on 10/22.

      Oct 31, 2021 31:31 PM

      One of the oldest gold funds out there, USERX (est. 1974) matches Sprott’s SGDJ at three weeks.

      Oct 31, 2021 31:04 PM

      ASA is a closed-end fund established in 1958 and it beats them all with four straight weeks well above its anchored VWAP. This makes sense and is a good sign for our juniors considering its composition. As of one month ago, about 40% of its nearly 100 holdings are exploration companies and 19% are development companies. 75% have market caps below $2 billion and only 6% are above $10 billion. Further to my liking, only 0.1% are royalty companies.

      Nov 01, 2021 01:23 AM

      Ok Matthew…more work for larry already.💩 i have to discover what anchored vwap is…..My vwap only works in time frames less than daily because on daily it is always embedded mid the candle…..soo, i wanted to see if volume was supporting the moving average weekly and monthly…now i guess their is a way?….i will go and read up on stockcharts i guess what it is and find out if TDA even has that…good find

    Nov 01, 2021 01:58 AM


    Nov 01, 2021 01:46 AM

    Friday: Possible PM Swing Low.

      Nov 01, 2021 01:33 AM

      Bust (for now).

    Nov 01, 2021 01:18 AM

    Gold update!

    I’m not putting to much emphasis on FOMC or anything else that’s smoke in the air to me. Everything is already priced in. I like how gold started the overnight move and I’d like to see us hold this level and next weeks kevels with a small bullish green candle and if that’s the case we can have a really good November.

    Let’s go and tag that $1810 region give or take and close above that on a weekly to set the stage.

    Good luck to all

      Nov 01, 2021 01:24 PM

      Ditto……… Glen………

    Nov 01, 2021 01:48 AM

    Same algos…just another day. Algos don’t even care what the counterfeit paper market is doing. Maybe the rest of the day will have a touch of a market…nah

      Nov 01, 2021 01:51 AM

      Looking better…as the day goes on, more miners turn green. Someone is NOT doing their job.

    Nov 01, 2021 01:01 AM

    Tarek Mansour say’s Jerome Powell has a 26% chance of being replaced by December. This is such rubbish but The Fed has cast such a spell over the sheep that they are blinded by the nonsense. Now expect The Federal Reserve to come out with a countervailing statement, “The Federal Reserve Board does not contemplate replacing our current Chairman Jerome Powell by December”. That should keep the sheep prattling on for another three months while Washington burns and Nero Powell fiddle faddles. DT

      Nov 01, 2021 01:50 AM

      What are they going to do…replace Powell with Jamie Dimon so he can do it as a part time job and remain on the Board at the same time. If they want to get serious…start with audit and then try to explain what they find. Nero and the Charlie Daniels band…all at once.

    Nov 01, 2021 01:02 AM

    Michael Boutros (46:20 — Rates, Gold, Silver, Oil):

    Nov 01, 2021 01:44 AM

    GDX turned after a 50% Fib retracement and more than a 61.8% Fib fan retracement. There’s also a couple of light fork supports in play…

      Nov 01, 2021 01:10 AM

      Hammer thing…hope it works again