Marc Chandler – Hawkish Fed Policy Combined With Inflation and Growth Data; What Would Be Considered A Normal Correction?
Marc Chandler, Managing Partner at Bannockburn Global ForEx and Editor of the Marc to Market blog joins us to share his thoughts on the more hawkish Fed policy and how it will continue to impact financial markets. This ties into a discussion on how the Fed is viewing inflation and economic growth. What everyone is wondering though is will the Fed lead us to another recession and what is a reasonable correction in the markets considering the high valuations.
Hunter has been hypnotized by Peter Schiff. Not so much that see things playing out the same way in the financial markets as Schiff, but that he says the same thing over & over & over. You could probably pull-up something from him 2 years ago, and it’s the same message.
I don’t have a problem with a bold call, but to simply say the same thing year after year until it hopefully happens doesn’t do anyone a bit of good, and shows you’re not really doing much research or analysis, or maybe it’s incorrect, and needs to be altered.
Brain wash= you
Peter Schiff has One of the best reputations and most honest person out there that I have seen for over 20+ years and he backs it up. He called the housing collapse way before many and now so many pundants jump on his waggon trying to call gold going to the moon and challenging him they had to be ashamed of them selves. It’s disgusting to see how many people are trying to make money now doing a Peter Schiff their way back then being a pioneer and a leader in the sector. It really pisses me off how dumb the sheep are and how many people that were on the wrong side of things now I want to do newsletters and make money following him and discrediting Peter Schiff views.
I’m not amazed money is evil and Peter is as honest as they come.
Glen
Glen
So it sounds like you agree on the comment on “Hunter simply repeating himself”, but not so much the Schiff analogy. Maybe we agree on 50%.
Schiff may be be an honest guy, I’m not saying he isn’t honest. He got the Commodity & EM cycle from 2000-2011, called the Stock market bubble of 2009, and the Housing bubble…totally agree on that. But lets get real, since 2011 or so, he’s been calling for another stock market bubble to burst, Gold going to the Moon, Hyperinflation in the US, and the US to potentially default on it’s debt. I will give him the stock market bubble, which maybe we’re seeing deflate right now, but to say those other things over a 10 year period (2011-2021) in literally every single interview he does, at some point you do lose some credibility.
Nawanda,
I guess this is Where me and you differ on credibility. Peter Schiff deserves all the credit in the world when it comes to his analysis he has been dead in. He thesis will prove to be no different as you already stated the bubble in the stock market is bursting and all the pain coming which you mention of 10 years which by the way he has been predicting all this way before that will end up coming true.
All the late comers in the pass few year for example Rickards and so many more were so out of tune in 2006/2008 while Peter put them all to bed. They now all preach gold. Take for example the last YouTube video with Peter and rickards peter gives him a bit of education once again on the matter.
I don’t discredit people for there timing that is each and everyone’s own due diligence. All I care for is the reliable material and the facts and he continues to preach the same with great results. What is yet to come will keep making him a top tier economist and add more accolades to his already impressive résumé.
Remember Peters portfolio is diversified in countries like china etc we’re products are made and real gains and investments will pay dividends down the road.
I would agree when it comes to timing with stocks his approach has been off at times but there is no perfect market timer imo. I don’t look to enter purchases either with his timing only his views and direction of economics is what I’m truly interested in. His forward vision has been and continues to be top tier
The dollar topped at an important fork resistance this week but broke through a more important fork resistance to do so. Maybe it is on its way to its P&F chart price objective of 1.11? If so, I believe it will have a significant correction or consolidation first.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=W&yr=4&mn=1&dy=0&id=p58016827816&a=1103528047
I highly doubt it Matthew,
The US dollar is up shading massive quarterly resistance and arc movement and I will bet such call. It could get there I just don’t see it with such bullish sentiment at sky rocket level.
It is my opinion they have ran the stops in everything to fleece.
Time will see.. I don’t see dollar going above a buck
Glen
Notice that I said it would have a significant correction first. It will not hit 1.11 during the current move which is now a year old but it could definitely do so in the next 2-3 years.
If it can finish this quarter just above the current price, it will have a huge quarterly chart breakout.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=Q&yr=25&mn=0&dy=0&id=p56759305985&a=1104618259&r=1643425596050&cmd=print
It just had its best weekly finish in 19 months and probably has a bare minimum of another 100 basis points of upside before stalling.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=W&yr=2&mn=7&dy=0&id=p45281476050
Avi Gilbert shared an excerpt from a book by Bob Prechter pertaining to news driving the markets and Prechter is right on…
“Observers’ job, as they see it, is simply to identify which external events caused whatever price changes occur. When news seems to coincide sensibly with market movement, they presume a causal relationship. When news doesn’t fit, they attempt to devise a cause-and-effect structure to make it fit. When they cannot even devise a plausible way to twist the news into justifying market action, they chalk up the market moves to “psychology,” which means that, despite a plethora of news and numerous inventive ways to interpret it, their imaginations aren’t prodigious enough to concoct a credible causal story.
Most of the time it is easy for observers to believe in news causality. Financial markets fluctuate constantly, and news comes out constantly, and sometimes the two elements coincide well enough to reinforce commentators’ mental bias towards mechanical cause and effect. When news and the market fail to coincide, they shrug and disregard the inconsistency. Those operating under the mechanics paradigm in finance never seem to see or care that these glaring anomalies exist.”
https://goldseek.com/article/sentiment-speaks-everyone-going-be-right-about-bear-market
Sounds similar to intervention and manipulation.
Only if you’re pinning it on mother nature. Elliott Wave theory, like technical analysis in general, gets its utility from nature, not man. It’s more discovery than invention.
My pitchforks do not provide support and resistance levels, they expose them along with their angles. That’s why some work very well and others not at all, or close to it. It’s like a room full of crisscrossing laser beams in movies that become visible with smoke. Technical analysis is the smoke.
The perceived randomness of market action is an illusion.
GLD filled its December 16th gap today.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p57889480144&a=1104574067
They can toy with the stocks but there not going to break pennant in the monthly.. it is way to tight explosive move higher is coming
Glen
I agree, since the bottom fell out of every JR I own…
35 years of the S&P 500 vs Gold (monthly):
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX%3A%24GOLD&p=M&yr=35&mn=3&dy=0&id=p00256839478&a=1104679669&r=1643442909479&cmd=print
Two more Schiff forks (that might be more relevant than the one above):
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX%3A%24GOLD&p=M&yr=35&mn=3&dy=0&id=p48023373779&a=1104681131&r=1643443157139&cmd=print
Does anyone else on this page listen to David Hunter? https://marketsanity.com/part-2-2david-hunter-own-these-assets-for-the-coming-meltup-the-80-crash-that-will-follow/.
He’s got some thoughts further out on the limb than most and it isn’t going to take too long (his estimate) for his melt-up to begin. Right now, the common narrative seems to be that Powell is a threat and markets will be going down, not up. Could he be right and markets are headed higher, much sooner than most are thinking? Might pay to at least be aware of his forcast! FWIW