Sean Brodrick – Gold and Oil Stocks Outlook, Will They Catch Up To The Commodity Prices?
Sean Brodrick, Resource Analyst at Weiss Ratings shares his thoughts on gold and oil stocks. Both of these commodities have been running higher but the stocks broadly are lagging. We discuss why the stocks are lagging and if they will catch up, to the upside, to the underlying commodities price. There is a lot to say about the more defensive shift going on in the markets.
Sean’s thoughts on interest rate increases is too MSM. Can’t happen! Get some facts here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zqrcZ4pB1-I&t=2372s Steph Pomboy and David Rosenburg.
Discussion took place on Feb. 3 but data points still remain valid. Good listen.
Sure, I’m wrong. Meanwhile, my subscribers took 2 more rounds of gains today.
FWIW, we’ll only know who’s right longer term in the long term.
Sean:
No meanness intended in my post. I simply meant that your words on interest rates is widely stated by many others. This is not a comment on your abilities at guiding your subscribers to good mining stock investments. I’ve actually followed you since you originally covered GPL way back in the day. Keep doing what you do!
SD, thanks for the video you posted yesterday. I had never heard of the guest but it was quickly clear to me that he’s worth hearing from. Like all good technicians, he ignores all the news that supposedly moves markets and focuses on the charts. One salient difference I might have with him pertains to rising interest rates and their effect on gold. I say “might” because he didn’t say enough for me to be sure. He thinks they will be a problem for gold but didn’t qualify his remarks. I’d be in agreement with him if he was referring to rising real rates but he didn’t say that so I assume he was talking about rising nominal rates. For now at least, I see little chance of real rates or real rates going materially positive so I welcome any rising nominal rates that we might get. Not only are they not bad for gold, they are good for it since they represent falling bonds and a headwind for stocks, both of which keep a firm bid under gold. In addition, rising rates are another manifestation of inflation. Think of them as the price of capital going up just like the price of a loaf of bread.
It should be no surprise that I agree with him about buying gold miners, silver, and silver miners and skipping gold itself. I’m not saying people should sell the gold they already have; just that they shouldn’t choose it with news funds.
Matthew, I bought more LOMLF today. Are you buying OGZPY today?
Bonzo, I think OGZPY is going lower so no need to buy yet.
As for LOMLF, I think your buying was near perfect, at least from an intermediate perspective (the one that matters most!).
You don’t need forks or any other annotations or tools to see how great the chart looks:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=LOMLF&p=W&yr=4&mn=2&dy=0&id=p33891378821
I don’t own it but would sure keep it if I did.
Thanks, Matthew. LOMLF looks good to me too, as well as Moriarity, Wetterling, and Quinton.
Sberbank may be of interest too
Matthew, I think you may have misunderstood, missed or perhaps were distracted with something else while listening. Rosenberg , in my perspective is maybe one of the 3 most respected analysts in North America. Pomboy, another stellar realists like Rosenberg. May be worth to go back for a 2nd listen.
Thanks for your perseverance and aid to KER
Thanks Marty. My comments pertained to an interview that Silverdollar posted yesterday. I guess I should have responded under it instead of this one to make sure there’s no confusion.
I haven’t yet had a chance to watch the one that you’re referring to.
The 2 year UST note price finished today at 1 cent above its 21 year MA and just above some Fibonacci and fork supports. It looks like it is close to launching a big bounce which will be particularly good for silver and our miners.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USTU&p=M&yr=17&mn=2&dy=0&id=t7973809124c&a=1117078165&r=1645665368461&cmd=print
Quarterly 2 year:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USTU&p=Q&yr=40&mn=2&dy=0&id=t8950302878c&a=1117086723&r=1645668534263&cmd=print
I can’t say that I agree with Pomboy’s call that the Fed won’t get off a single rate hike but I do completely agree with Rosenberg’s view that real rates will remain negative.
I think Rosenberg is a straight shooter who knows a lot but it seems his Keynesian training gets in the way at times. He said that treasuries don’t lose you money even during recessions (“never ever”) because he conflates dollar measurements of value with real ones, the ultimate being gold.
He thinks equities are coming off the biggest bubble since 1929 and “certainly” greater than the dot com bubble because this one is broader based. I’d like to hear more from him on that because the all-time high Shiller PE ratio for the S&P 500 remains 44.19 which was reached in December 1999 (it reached about 37 last month) and the all-time high gold value (real value) of the S&P 500 remains 5.56 ounces reached in April 2000. At the 16 year high last month, it was less than half that at just 2.68 ounces. So, based on the price paid for earnings or based on the price in real money, the biggest bubble by far happened in 1999/2000.
Consistent with the view that 1999/2000 marked the real all-time high for paper assets and even most real estate is the fact that gold and authoritarianism have both been rising ever since.
The Keynesian school of economics exists solely to provide political cover for the unsound economic and monetary policies that plunder us all in perpetuity.
Keynes said:
“For at least another hundred years we must pretend to ourselves and to every one that fair is foul and foul is fair; for foul is useful and fair is not. Avarice and usury and precaution must be our gods for a little longer still.”
— — — — —
“Education: the inculcation of the incomprehensible into the indifferent by the incompetent.”
— — — — —
“I work for a Government I despise for ends I think criminal.”
Silver doing great today………. JMO
Jerry, your opinion is correct. Silver has now confirmed gold assuming it can hang onto the current level through this week’s close. This is the last piece of the puzzle that I needed. Gold has been “out” and ready from much lower levels whether the price-only guys know it or not. Higher gold to finish the month still wouldn’t do for them what they’ve expected if silver didn’t do what it’s done today.
It is finally above its 200 day MA as well as its upper Bollinger band and looks great in other ways, too. So it should be no surprise if it remains strong until Friday’s close. Then next week will be all set for impressive upside as shorts are forced to compete aggressively with new longs to get themselves out of further trouble.
SLV too…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p41731441125&a=994384467
Glad…….. I could help with the puzzle parts……… 🙂
Hoping this is the move, that most or a few have been waiting for…… FILL THE CUP…. 🙂
Have to hand it to you Matthew – Your calls regarding the bottom have been dead on. You were out earlier than most and I had my doubts for a while, but your charts have just been too compelling to ignore. Well done sir.
Thank you Charles, I’m glad if the charts have been useful.
Agree.
Thank you, I appreciate it.
HUI is getting ready to surprise a lot of people with another quick move higher.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI&p=D&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&id=p80586508682&a=1115085819
Hecla is ready to go much higher quickly.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HL&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p32666682975&a=1037810281
The last couple days have been great in Hecla, so looking forward to it continuing to blast higher.
DIA:GLD is below its 200 week MA for the first time in over a year.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DIA%3AGLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p11653113271&a=1116098205
Wow, gold @ $1930! Thanks Mathew, thanks much to your analysis, I gambled all in long on Jr’s when Doc chickened out to mostly cash
Gold at $1942! Russia goes full scale invasion, bastards
$1948!
Unlike Obama, when Putin puts a line in the snow he backs it up.
That’s great Buzz. You should congratulate yourself for taking the right action when it was most difficult to do so. Be prepared for some potentially wild swings in the days and weeks ahead!
Right on, & I’ve got a full metal jacket of silver stocks—
SPQ : https://tinyurl.com/2vc9pznu
NatGas Rocket Launched
Ukraine Effect?