Ed Moya – Counter Trend Rallies To Start The Week But Will Any Be Long Term Plays
Ed Moya, Senior Market Analyst at OANDA joins us to discuss the start of week trading where we are seeing counter trend rallies across the board. Pretty much every sector is bouncing higher while the US Dollar is pulling back. The Fed is in a blackout period so things are slow on that front, earnings from Bank of America and Goldman Sachs were strong but this rebound continues to be doubted.
Didn’t you say that last week, where the miners rallied the next day?
Didn’t you say that on Friday where the miners then rallied again today on Monday?
BTW – at 12:15 PST all 4 major PM Indexes are still in the positive on the day, as are most of the PM mining stocks not included in those indexes (many juniors are actually still up 2-6% on the day).
Where are you looking where the miners have “withered into the negative”?
– Surely not the actual data.
That cash you keep mentioning was good to deploy last week into the pain and many of those names are already up 5-10% from where you were clamoring for people to sell. It’s actually time to start deploying that cash, not selling stocks after such a large correction has already happened near their lows.
Isn’t the old investing adage to “buy low, and sell high” ?
Ex: You know you’re not supposed to argue with a fool. He’ll just pull you down to his level and beat you with his experience! Just sayin’.
Good point Silverdollar. It wasn’t so much arguing as simply pointing out that the mining stocks were in the green today, not withering into the negative as he claimed. He’s entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts. The fact is most PM mining stocks were in the green today, not in the negative. That’s the fact.
As far as the opinion side of things, the last 2 times recently he said to sell mining stocks and go to cash the miners rallied the next day for nice gains.
This was true at the beginning of the year when he was banging on his war drum to sell everything, and then the mining stocks rallied from January to early April. Again, he’s a great contrarian indicator.
Of course, during big rallies we don’t hear from Joe about buying, (as he goes quiet as a church mouse). This is true of most permabears or permabulls, they shoot their mouth off big, typically at the exact wrong times, and then when the opposite plays out they disappear for months at a time.
There have been a number of other rallies for a few months at a time over the last year or two, where it actually would have made sense to lighten up on mining stocks or sell and go to cash. However, selling now, near many stocks lowest levels after a 2 years of an overall correction in the PM stocks, seems like the wrong type of action to be taking.
If anything, last week was a time for investors with a medium to longer term horizon to start averaging into a better cost basis in mining stocks with some of their cash, or maybe still waiting if they want to try and time the exact bottom (usually a fool’s errand), but it has definitely not been the right time for selling positions these near lows. That ship sailed long ago, and if anything after the rally we saw the first 4 months of the year was the last good time to trim and sell.
Even those with a shorter-term time horizon would have been better off buying last week. Most mining stocks are up 5-10% from where he was saying “sell sell sell” near the depths last week, so people that did the opposite, would have already had a nice swing trade and I guess could have harvested gains today to build up more dry powder for a win by doing the reverse of what he suggested. Gotta love it!
Gold Update: Now Is The Time To Accumulate
July 17, 2022 – Smart Money Tracker
Sure enough… Joe comes out yesterday screaming to sell, and for the 3rd time since last week, the miners rallied again the day following his prognostication. People could make amazing money just day trading opposite of Joe’s “prophetic” calls.
Hey Ex, Say It Ain’t So Joe! He’s just getting his jollies Off! DT😜 LOL!
Yeah I know. He’s a lot less like “jolly” old St. Nicholas, and quite a bit more like Krampus though. 😉
Why? That question is never addressed. Just me.
Lakedweller2, you’re barking up the wrong tree to ask Joe “Why?” LOL!
He’s just a one trick pony that likes to perpetually say everything is going to break down… just like permabulls that are always saying everything is getting ready to go up perpetually. Broken clocks are correct twice a day, so at those moments where we see corrections he rides in and says “told you so.”
Notably, can you think of even 1 chart Joe has posted or any comments on technical analysis? (nope)
Can you think of the macro thesis he outlined using monetary or fiscal policy, or interest rates, or fluctuations in currencies, or prior price analogs of other corrections, or seasonal analysis, or quant analysis, or intermarket analysis, or really anything substantive to back his repeated perpetual position for more than a year now? (nope).
There is absolutely nothing wrong with being bearish or bullish, if one has a thesis and a reason for “Why?” they feel that way. We’ve had plenty of people that are bearish on Gold and the mining stocks for periods of time, on the show – Jordan Roy-Byrne, Doc Postma, Joel Elconin, Dana Lyons, Rick Bensignor, Ed Moya, Jeff Christian, etc…
They all came on and explained their rationale though, and provided technical or fundamental reasons for that thesis. Some were right on based on their thesis, some were right for reasons that had nothing to do with their thesis (but still claimed victory), and some were wrong. At least there was a logical reason for their bearish position though, that everyone could follow along with and track.
It should be pointed out that while all of them were bearish on gold and the PMs for short periods of time or for the medium-term, they were also all bullish the PM sector for the longer term, due to the obvious fundamental reasons. There were also month at a time where just the opposite happened and we saw rallies in the PM sector, where maybe it took their concepts longer to play out than even they expected. That kind of bearish commentary has something real it’s based on, just like a well reasoned bullish thesis, and which can be debated for it’s merits. At least it’s something one can sink their teeth into and reflect on.
Blind calls of “Sell, sell, sell” or “Buy, buy, buy” have zero value, without attaching a reason to it, and specifics. Any fool can trumpet a buy or sell call or throw out a random number target based on their hunch.
The question is, why do feel that way? What specific information and data are they using to form such a thesis?
How can we measure whether it was a good call or not based on their reasoning and the time horizon they laid out? Is it a precise call or reasoning based on a certain level or time period or even to transpire, or is it more general in nature based on larger trend at work? What are the parameters of the argument, be it bullish or bearish?
What data (fundamental or technical) would cause them to change that thesis or what would invalidate their thesis?
If they are wrong on their call, because clearly the fundamental data or sentiment changed, or the technicals changed, then will they admit their call was wrong? (not usually) Why did it go wrong? What can be gleaned moving forward?
Again, we saw Joe trumpet “Sell, Sell, Sell” right before the PMs and miners rallied from late last September through November, and then again they rallied from January to April, but we never saw the admission of getting it dead wrong. Conversely, where were the “Buy, Buy, Buy” calls during that time period when things were in a bullish trend? Oh that’s right… there weren’t any. That’s the same as being wrong. Pretty conveniently (but not surprisingly), he just went radio silence during the those time periods of rallies in the PMs. An honest or balanced person would concede they called it wrong and didn’t anticipate x, y, or z happening.
The bears like Joe and Paul only show up during periods when it has obviously been bearish recently, acting like they’d been right all along, then press their bets that the trend will continue… Sometimes the trend does continue for a while, and so then other people start thinking they may be on to something. However, any logical person won’t forget the string of terribly wrong calls they had over and over again.
Remember Spanky? He used to play the same game, but at least he provided a few reasons technically about why he felt the way that he did, even if it was mostly talk about black candles he found so worrisome and ichimoku clouds, but still it was something tangible. It was curiously hilarious that he seemed unable to simply post a chart for us and show his work though for inspection. Remember when he kept saying Silver would never get above $18 again in our lifetimes (and because of recency bias some people thought he may be onto something too)? Tragic comedy…
Sometimes “ONE TRICK PONYs”….. become very skilled in their craft….. They have it down , and no one can over achieve them…. … hummm…….. 🙂
Just passing through………. HAVE A WONDERFUL NIGHT…………. 🙂
Haha! Good one OOTB! Yes, maybe a master of one thing that is so amazing at this one trick that they are an expert, have a solid thesis based on facts, and can demonstrate proficiency in a topic.
That is night and day different that what we are talking about here though. 😉
Thanks for passing through buddy and yes, you have a wonderful night as well.
All this reminds me of Russell Hamilton, extolling the virtues of Biden presidency. A vehament Trump hater, haven’t seen him blathering his BS lately…
Yes Buzz, it is similarly irritating, but even R.H. varies up his messaging sometimes and provides his reasoning, flawed as it is.
This stuff from Joe is just a repetitive loop, trolling the site, to get his kicks. I was ignoring it the last dozen times or so, but he’s now posted the same basic message over and over again. He doesn’t like this sector, makes fun of resource investors constantly, and only comes here to degrade us and kick sand in peoples eyes that he knows invest in PM mining stocks during bearish periods. How is that a value add?
As mentioned above, there is absolutely nothing wrong with a bearish thesis, laid out with data and logical reasoning. What Joe does is nothing like that and is purposefully incendiary and he seems to take joy in others losses, which is pretty messed up.
Whatever… If he wants to come on every day and post the same message during bearish periods and take glee in the financial pain of others, and then go missing during each of the bullish rallies that succede his warnings, then that’s his opinion. However, we are allowed to have our opinions too, and I see him as one of the lowest value posters on the site.
Looks like you missed the bottom Joe. You should have put that worthless cash to use.
Anybody out there really want to understand the monetary system of this world and understand how most of what you think you know about the Fed is wrong? Listen to Jeff Snider’s best video:
Cory, can you set this blog back up so it will show our pictures again? You know, the way it used to show our pictures next to our posts? I am sure you want to see our handsome faces again. 🙂
If you are unable to get to this who should I contact? Shad? Mr. Big Al? Jimmy?
Hi Ebolan. Not sure if Cory will see your post, but I’ll ask him if there is a way. I was never sure how you guys added the photos next to your names on the old system, but maybe our web guy will know.
If you log into this Web site you can set your picture. You can go to gravatar.com and set it.
Charting The Dollar’s Perfect Parabolic Slingshot Advance & It’s Very Practical Implications…
Clive Maund – Monday, July 11, 2022
Stocks Climb, Dollar Eases As Fed Hike View Dialed Back
Chuck Mikolajczak – Reuters – July 18, 2022
“A gauge of global stocks rose on Monday and the dollar eased as investors dialed back expectations the Federal Reserve will take a more aggressive approach in hiking interest rates next week while the U.S. corporate earnings season picks up steam.”
“Expectations for a 100 basis points rate hike by the Fed at its policy meeting next week stood at about 31%, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool after reaching as high as 80% last week.”
Oil Gains $5 On Weaker Dollar, Tight Supplies
Laura Sanicola – Reuters – July 18, 2022
“Oil prices rose more than $5 on Monday, boosted by dollar weakness and expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve won’t raise interest rates by a full percentage point at its next meeting to combat inflation.”
Russia Bans Crypto Payments For Goods And Services
Anna Golubova – Monday July 18, 2022
“Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law amending the existing ban on crypto payments by adding more tokens to the list.”
“The new amendment bans using any security tokens, utility tokens, and NFTs (non-fungible tokens) as a form of payment for goods and services within Russia.”
A Rally In Bitcoin And Ether Push Crypto Market Cap Back Above $1 Trillion As Digital Assets Struggle Against Bear Market
Matthew Fox – Yahoo Finance – Mon, July 18, 2022
U.S. Home Builder Sentiment Plunges
Dan Burns – July 18, 2022
“U.S. home builder sentiment plummeted in July to its lowest level since the early months of the coronavirus pandemic, as high inflation and the steepest borrowing costs in more than a decade brought customer traffic to a near standstill.”
“At the same time, a gauge of activity in the services sector activity in the U.S. Northeast turned negative this month for the first time in a year, and firms there do not see an improvement over the next six months.”
“Production bottlenecks, rising home building costs and high inflation are causing many builders to halt construction because the cost of land, construction and financing exceeds the market value of the home,” NAHB Chairman Jerry Konter, a home builder and developer from Savannah, Georgia, said in a statement. “In another sign of a softening market, 13% of builders in the HMI survey reported reducing home prices in the past month to bolster sales and/or limit cancellations.”
Jerry……… is a share guy………….. 🙂
Well, thanks for sharing Jerry!
“Sharing is caring” as they say.
Happy to do so……………… 🙂
If the current fiscal and monetary maneuvers loose the building trades it becomes a depression……We only produce homes some cars a few chips a bunch of insurance and lots of social media nonsense…Does not seem sustainable…glta
Stock Market Today: Dow Ends Lower After Bad News from Tech Giant (Apple)
Liz Moyer – Investing.com – July 18, 2022
“U.S. stocks ended in the red on Monday, killing a rally after a report Apple would slow hiring.”
“The markets had been higher earlier as big banks kicked off another busy week of earnings and expectations eased about a big interest rate increase by the Fed.”
You all are working too hard. Just buy what Blowsi is buying….it’s worked for years…
Corruption marches on. Guess Pelosi’s husband needs $$$$ to pay for his DUI
Weekly /GC still shows the ABC down targets around 1500 to 1400….On monthly chart a high volume bar on 3/1/20 looks to want retest to confirm a new bottom…glta
When the conventional markets start to tank sometime after the interest rate hike of 1%, the margin calls start coming in. That’s when we get to see how badly run these derivative funds are. Nobody has been mentioning the collapse in the derivative market but like birds of a feather they will all crash together, because they are honeycombed, intertwined, and dependent on the other guys bad investment holding up! Henny Penny, The Sky Is Falling! DT
Not a good time to be holding a Derivative of a Derivative of a Derivative!😜
The definition of bewilderment, Derivative company A holding a 20% interest in Derivative company B, and B an interest in C, while C in turn is invested in A, while D holds shares in all the others. How do you figure out actual worth? DT
How To Determine The Value of A Derivative:
You audit the personal bank account of the spouse of the Banker.
Lake, you would need an army of professional financial advisors to look at the spouses holdings, they wouldn’t want to go there because none of them could figure out who owned what, and what the value is, of this mess of undigested securities. DT
Yeah…that is the humor in the situation. It is so corrupt and fraudulent that parking it in a spouse’s bank account is the height of blatant fraud.
okay got back in nugt today…30.31 w heavy position….no idea if this is tradable low or not…..let macd and slow stoch guide me
I think there’s still a good chance the miners will retest last week’s low while gold makes a new low in the 1680 to 1655 zone. Whether that happens or not, I bet the silver stocks will show more relative strength.
Same algos another day …. need some dog food (so does the dog). Bye for now.
Thanks Matthew..I am fully prepared to be stopped out…so far I am bumping along, at one point, like 5 pennies…lmao…I sure hope that there is not an AM gap down if i survive today…That actually is my concern…glta
Ex went down to the beach today to look at “The Bottoms” in his portfolio! DT
I have gone to the beach a number of times in the last 2 weeks (and saw a few bottoms), but as mentioned above, most of the stocks I’ve been adding to bottomed in the last 2 weeks and have already bounced up about 5-10%+ in many of them since then. If this keeps up I may trim just a hair off of some of them to raise a bit more funds, but they’ve been profitable trades thus far.
Hope you all took the opportunity today to SELL!!!!
As I type, it’s almost 12:00 PST, and the rally that started off the day has withered into the negative.
You still have an hour left to SELL and move into the safety and security of CASH.
You are going to want it.
You are going to need it.