Ed Moya – CPI Data Recap, Updated Rate hike Expectations and Corresponding Market Moves

February 14, 2023

Ed Moya, Senior Market Analyst to OANDA joins us to recap the January CPI data, that came in at as expected at a gain of 0.5% m/o/m headline and 0.4% m/o/m core. This corresponds to year over year increases of 6.4% headline and 5.6% core.


After recapping the data we take a step back to discuss how this impacts Fed policy and market expectations. Markets have been volatile today with not much change overall. This could be a sign that we are in for range-bound trading. We also look at the crypto markets and Bitcoin which is up today even with all the regulation talk in the news.



Click here to visit the OANDA website to follow along with Ed’s daily note.


    Feb 14, 2023 14:01 PM

    The Federal Reserve also had to lift the rate because inflation is one thing, but speculation was also rampant. Now they have to worry about a pinch in money coming to a sudden and alarming climax. Can it get any worse, you be the judge! DT

    Feb 14, 2023 14:24 PM

    Fed officials keep door open to peak policy rate above 5.1%

    Reuters – Feb 14, 2023

    “With the strength in the labor market, clearly there are risks that inflation stays higher for longer than expected, or that we might need to raise rates higher” than current forecasts hold, New York Fed President John Williams told reporters in New York.

    Speaking at Prairie View A&M University near Houston, Texas, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said that with an “incredibly strong” labor market pushing up wages and keeping inflation elevated, the Fed should not lock in a stopping point for rates just yet.

    “We must remain prepared to continue rate increases for a longer period than previously anticipated, if such a path is necessary to respond to changes in the economic outlook or to offset any undesired easing in conditions.”

    Feb 14, 2023 14:26 PM

    Dollar Gains As Inflation Remains Sticky; Sterling Retreats – Feb 15, 2023

    “The U.S. dollar climbed higher in early European trade Wednesday after U.S. consumer inflation remained elevated in January, while sterling fell after a drop in the U.K. CPI rate.”

      Feb 14, 2023 14:46 PM

      Traders Capitulate, Abandoning Fed Rate Cut Bets After CPI Spike

      Liz Capo McCormick and Michael MacKenzie – Bloomberg – Tue, February 14, 2023

      “Bond traders were once again forced to rethink the Federal Reserve’s path after inflation data showed prices remain stubbornly high. They now expect the Fed to continue raising interest rates through June and no longer see a rate cut as a sure bet this year.”

    Feb 15, 2023 15:04 AM

    ‘The nightmare isn’t over yet’: Senate Banking Committee reckons with FTX fallout

    Leo Schwartz – Fortune – Tue, February 14, 2023

    “After a series of high-profile congressional hearings in December after the collapse of FTX, the Senate Banking Committee held a largely muted affair on Tuesday, inviting a panel of expert witnesses versed in financial regulation.”

    “With lawmakers still working to understand the fallout of FTX’s bankruptcy and U.S. agencies cracking down on the crypto industry, senators probed the assembled professors about the feasibility of legislation, eager to change perceptions that Congress has taken a back seat when it comes to crypto regulation.”