Joel Elconin – Markets Continue To Fall: A Trade War Is War
Joel Elconin, Co-Host of the PreMarket Prep Show joins us to discuss the markets continued fall, and if this could develop into a major market crash.
The discussion begins with an overview of the significant declines in major indices, including the S&P 500, Dow, NASDAQ, and Russell, highlighting the widespread market downturn. Joel elaborates on the limited support and uncertainty affecting market sentiment, emphasizing the role of geopolitical factors and US policy decisions. We discuss the implications of overvalued markets, algorithmic trading, and the impact of current US economic policies, such as tariffs, job cuts, and reduced government spending, on potential recession risks.
The conversation shifts to the ongoing trade wars and their global impact, leading to capital outflows from the US and a weakening dollar. Joel provides technical analysis, suggesting key levels for potential market corrections and emphasizes the shift from growth to value sectors in investing.
Miners move in conjunction with stocks during hard down days for stocks. You’re wasting your time if you expect that to change because it never will. Today counts as “hard down” as the Nasdaq 100 approached 5% down (XAU and HUI are down about 3.1% at the moment while NDX is down 3.8%).
YOY NDX is up almost 8% while GDX is up over 37%. YTD NDX is down 7.2% while GDX is up 20%.
These sectors have now (finally) completed their turns but most won’t believe it until it becomes much more obvious.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NDX&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p80713900077&a=1926264541
Regarding TSLA, there could be a bounce from this daily oversold level but the bigger that bounce is the more aggressive sellers it will attract. It was bullishly out of sync with the stock market when I said it was going up a few months ago but it no longer enjoys that position at all.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TSLA&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p24393986869&a=1926276800
Bitcoin is really just a vehicle for leverage to the Nasdaq. Those who think it’s going to protect them during a stock market collapse are in for a rude awakening.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BTCUSD&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=0&id=p45828853984&a=1926389429
The USD was feeble today considering the carnage in stocks. UUP finished 1 cent below the 30 week MA.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p56426057072&a=1453073823
IPT vs QQQ finished above the 55 day MA for the first time in almost 4 months.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V%3AQQQ&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p14961798468&a=1718741939
Weekly TLT:SPY just hit its highest RSI in many years. Just one of countless bearish developments/details for the stock market.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT%3ASPY&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=0&id=p15834622180&a=976582407
The HUI is up 219% since its January 2016 low while the S&P is up 210% since its January 2016 low. At best, the S&P was up 239% which happened this quarter and the HUI was up 277% which happened in Q3 2020 (4.5 years ago). So it is clear which one is leading but both benefitted very similarly from the central banks’ and governments’ ridiculous profligacy for the last 9 years. Now that some of that profligacy is being reined in which sector do you think will outperform?
Century-to-date also goes to the HUI and by a good margin: 326% vs 280%.
Today the Dow managed to break the 200 day MA as well as its double top neckline.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p63454820724&a=1926635492
Terry mentioned yesterday that Buffet wanted to put a Dairy Queen in every mall in China. If anyone has seen the story of McDonald’s when Ray Kroc got involved McDonald’s was losing a lot of money because the McDonald brothers wanted to make their milkshakes with real ice cream and that required expensive walk-in freezers. An associate of Ray Kroc suggested a powder that when mixed with water tasted just like a regular milkshake that used real ingredients. Ray Kroc went behind the McDonald brothers and started using the powder-based milkshakes in the franchises and it was an instant success and McDonald’s profits soared.
That lesson was not lost on Buffet, can you imagine the profit to be had by selling soft ice cream in China through Dairy Queen. LOL! DT
Google, Intel, and Tesla are getting hit hard in China because of Trumps tariffs. Canada is signing long term oil contracts with The Chinese to sell oil that would have normally flowed to the US. China is finding new partners to supply corn, cotton, and soybeans, and American railroads are finding there is a lot less shipping traffic. Doug Ford here in Ontario has slapped a 25% electricity tariff on power that goes to Wisconsin, Michigan, and New York, and affects 1.5 million homes. The backlash has begun and even though Trumps tariffs don’t start here until April 2nd, Ford can’t wait for Trump to keep changing his mind, it’s all or nothing. DT
DT – Good commentary. Useful. Thanks! BDC
Hi BDC, for every action there is a reaction. I happen to like a lot of what Trump is doing but I think he made a big error imposing tariffs. DT
US stock market loses $4 trillion in value as Trump pushes ahead with tariffs. DT 😒😢🙄
Time and time again DT had cried wolf, wolf, and the wolf had made only the fleeting of visits. Time and again The Federal Reserve Board had not correctly reported on inflation and although inflation was much higher it had failed to bring hard times. Why, nonsense! aren’t our tech businesses running at full blast and in good health. Why, the tech industries are those that the most cautious of investors would select with an eye to the future.
Still there remained doubters. This bull market has survived some great shocks maybe it will survive the one we saw today. But once the stocks fall enough and the profits disappear the mood can change in a heartbeat and the markets are all about psychology. DT
Good analogy DT….yes the wolf eventually shows up.🤣…..hope you held off on buying EMO for a day. Better price today before it rips. I’m basically holding a lot of Magna and Emerita is next followed by Osisko Metals. I’m not worrying too much longer term. The short term general pull down just creates nice buying opportunities for new funds. Cheers
WR, I held off on Emerita yesterday but today is a whole new ballgame like “BITS and BITES”! DT
https://www.tradingview.com/x/KM1wg7mr/
NatGas : Holding High, For Now.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/h7xxdvlN/
Dollar : Slightly Lower.
Opportunities In Growth-Oriented Gold Producers – Part 9 (Heliostar Metals)
Excelsior Prosperity w/ Shad Marquitz (03-11-2025)
https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/p/opportunities-in-growth-oriented-6ee
Ex, I’m glad to see you posting again, I guess you got tired of being in the wilderness and longed for the action of the posting section at The Ker Report. LOL! What would life be without a little give and take. Like Trump says tension is good but all this change all the time leaves most in an atmosphere of bewilderment. LOL! DT
Thanks DT. Yeah, it was nice to get out in nature for some respite over the weekend, but I’m back in the saddle this week and have been interested to see the strength in the PM stocks today here on Tuesday.
Heliostar is on my radar and in my portfolio, when I go down to the underground in downtown Toronto which we call “The Path” a great place to get some walking in when the weather is inclement, I usually meet with a few buddies, and we discuss what we like in the stock market. It’s always a lot of laughs, fun and pushing whatever is your favorite and right now mine is Heliostar. I will make sure they get the message. I mentioned on the weekend that Heliostar will see a dollar this week, you have to be conservative because if you screw up you will soon here about it from the other chirpers. LOL! DT 🤣🤣🤣
Yes indeed, Heliostar is set up for an exciting year (well, really a solid next few years) as a new gold producer. I’m not going to bang on about how bullish I am on it here, as I just wrote 12 pages on it on that Substack article linked above. 🙂
Cheers!
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/index.php
Short-Term Energy Outlook Report
(Release Around Noon)
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/index.php
NatGas : Increasing Prices Expected.
(Unusual Bullishness!)
Hey anyone… I missed the meeting, is Silver a precious or industrial metal today?
Good one Dan! Silver sure looks to be acting like a precious metal today, despite all the comments we hear to the contrary about it being mostly an industrial metal now.
It is nice to see silver, gold, and the PM stocks diverging from the general stocks markets lately, which is also a sign that silver is getting a flight to safety bid like gold as things deteriorate in the tech stocks and cryptoverse.
Maybe a sea-change moment for silver… $33 is the deal on this weekly going back to last May.
We have the sea-change in my view. It began with the sector-wide launch one year ago and was finally completed last week. yes there are still some things that will add strength and conviction to this new bull but we have enough to expect a bullish change in the character of the trading action.
Today I added to my NFGC, HL, CDE and IPT.
28.5 years of individual trading and I don’t think in all those next 26+ years I’ve experienced such an abusive smackdown in the miners, particularly silver miners one day and then a back at THE BOYZ that seem to stuff their buried faces into the mat. I had placed @7am bids on both AYASF AND EXK BELOW THEIR BOLLINGER BAND LIMITS EXPECTING ANOTHER BRUTAL TAKEDOWN DAY. I HAD THE RIGHT STOCKS, BUT SOMEBODY STEPPED IN TO NEGATE ANOTHER TUMULTUOUS DOWN DAY. WHAT A DAY !
Yeah Marty – wild action lately.
As for Endeavour Silver (EXK) I picked up some shares on Feb 24th @ $3.84 and it has rocketed higher closing today at $4.52. EXK was up 24% just today! Fun times in the silver stocks for sure.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/NSaeVoYT/
GOLD : Bearish Gartley Target : $2807
DT….the ripper is OM not EMO right now. 😉
Looks like TSLA is gunning to fill the gap at $219, then meander for a few days and off we go. By looking at the chart, this is a overreaction to Musk’s involvement with DOGE and X outage news. Not bullish with Silver miners looking at today’s action. Once again its been proved, mining stocks move in conjunction with general stock market and until that behavior changes, they are not going anywhere quick.