Marc Chandler – China’s Rare Earths Shock: Escalating US-China Tensions, AI Fallout, & Market Ripples
In this Daily Editorial (Fri, Oct 10), Marc Chandler, Managing Partner at Bannockburn Global Forex and editor of Marc to Market, unpacks China’s post-holiday policy salvo and what it means for markets, AI supply chains, and resource equities. We cover how export restrictions on rare earths and processing tech, new EV battery curbs, and port levies on U.S. ships raise the stakes – and why the U.S. response could entrench a longer, messier standoff.
Key Discussion Highlights
- What China just did (and why it matters): Tightened export controls on rare earths and processing know-how; added limits on EV battery tech; announced special levies on U.S.-flagged cargo calling at Chinese ports – an escalation that targets chokepoints rather than finished goods.
- Semis vs. rare earths – who has leverage? The U.S. tried to corner advanced chips; China is signaling control over inputs (rare earths, high-performance magnets) that feed chips, defense, and electrification.
- AI growth at risk: If rare earth processing and magnets get squeezed, it reverberates through data centers, networking gear, and robotics – potentially clipping a major slice of U.S. growth attributed to AI investment.
- Market reaction and setup: Dollar strength faded; Nasdaq/S&P rolled over after fresh highs; meanwhile, U.S.-linked rare earth names caught a bid as investors handicap supply-chain reshoring and strategic stockpiling.
- Policy path from here: Tariffs vs. talks – what skipping APEC signals; why “first-mover” domestic processors may see sustained support; the transparency problem when governments take equity stakes.
- Beyond rare earths: Where China’s vertical integration and scale may pressure next (think pharma ingredients), and why Western timelines (3–10 years) make near-term substitution challenging.
Stocks / Symbols Mentioned
MP Materials (MP) • Energy Fuels (UUUU) • Trilogy Metals (TMQ.TO)
For more market commentary & interview summaries, subscribe to our Substacks:
The KE Report: https://kereport.substack.com/
Shad’s resource market commentary: https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/
Investment disclaimer:
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investing in equities and commodities involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Guests and hosts may own shares in companies mentioned.
People have no pride anymore if you watch Judge Judy it doesn’t matter whether it is the plaintiff or the defendant most of them are living off of government disability payments. There is corporate welfare and public welfare. America wants industry to return but who is going to sit in front of a sewing machine for 50 hours a week like in China and get paid a substance wage for real hard work. We in The West have forgotten what life once was before money printing and now we will have to compete because The West is losing to The East. DT
A lot of these Critical Minerals and Strategic Minerals have been going ballistic lately.
It’s not just the Rare Earths like we saw today, but one could include Uranium, or Antimony, or even Tungsten.
One of the companies I met with at some conferences earlier in the year, that I then brought on the KER show back in the summer is up in a huge way just in the last 6 months and even in the last few days. Talk about a rhino horn chart!
American Tungsten (CSE:TUNG) (OTCQB:TUNGF)
https://cdn-ceo-ca.s3.amazonaws.com/1keisal-American%20Tungsten%20-%206-month%20daily%20chart.JPG
They will need a LOT OF TUNGSTEN…..at FT.KNOX….. to transfer those filled bars to CHINA… 🙂
Ex, I talked to you about 6 months ago about Ares Strategic Metals, they are opening “The Lost Sheep Mine” in Utah. Ares has discovered Germanium and Gallium in their fluorspar and the stock has gone much higher. ( CSE-ARS) DT
Hegseth said he is going to let Qatar build an air force base in Idaho. Before jumping into such an absurd situation maybe he should ask the American Indians how that worked out having foreign military bases in their territories. They don’t need to build a base to train Qatar pilots when they can buy training pilot slots in the US through DOD and the USAF. That has been going on for over 50 years that I know of. I am sure Russia and China would like a few bases also. Maybe some country would like to buy Idaho.
America is broke it is the end of Empire, let other countries build military installations on your soil, isn’t that what America has been doing to the rest of The World for the last 80 years. Now the chairs are being re-aligned on The Titanic. DT
You got that right … no one should know better than the US about having bases in a foreign country and the political reasons for this intrusive behavior.
It’s a global empire owned and run by globalists. Americans have had no control over their country for well over a century.
Sure, R and C would like to have a place to park some planes in Idaho
Here’s a quote to warm your heart DT. ‘Even after more than doubling over the past 9-months, the combined market capitalization of every gold mining stock traded in the U.S. is only around $600 billion. Nvidia has had market cap corrections this size in a single day’–David Erfle at Kitco today.
Erfle then addresses the junior miners–‘Considering the length of the previous bear market, and the severely depressed levels seen in CDNX over the past 18 years in the junior space, a major top in this tiny sector may not be seen for 2-3 years.’
We need a price correction in the gold and silver prices with a consolidation for awhile. It would confirm that this bull market has a lot longer to run and it would be healthy. It would also get rid of a lot of weak hands.
Even if we have a correction I would not think the PM stocks would comparatively be affected as much.
Don’t you remember what happened in 2008, this time it will be worse because the pendulum has travelled much farther on the high side. DT
Luckily (at least for us) this is no 2008. That liquidity crisis was unique. What we have now is a dotcom style bubble but bigger. However, unlike the dotcom period, we now have a very ugly bond market that won’t be getting better anytime soon. On top of that, we now have the biggest names in banking turning bullish gold and even recommending up to a 20 percent portfolio allocation to it while the average allocation is currently under 0.5 percent. So I’m not even sure there will be a crash but I do think stocks will suffer a deep, protracted correction. Priced in real money, stocks have already suffered a deep correction but we haven’t seen anything yet. As for bitcoin, that post rate cut new high was a gift to those wise enough to sell. The coming BC collapse is going to fund gold, not stocks and especially not tech stocks. Most BC “investors” will of course be bag holders riding it all the way down while buying the “dip” but most don’t own much of it, even collectively.
Priced in Dow, gold is in blastoff mode after basing for over a decade…
https://schrts.co/QmRdETTC
Some here wonder why I watch Nvidia so closely, because it in my mind is the barometer for The Tech Bubble. Today it lost more than $230 Billion US. There will be a crash, nobody can predict the exact time but it is coming. The Canadian markets are closed on Monday, I just hope this isn’t the beginning because almost all crashes occur in the fall and in particular in October.
I would watch what happens to NVDA on Monday as The American markets are open. The everything bubble is very dangerous and with Trump talking up increased tariffs with China you must be vigilante. DT