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Unemployment numbes? Common, how about a dose of reality!

Big Al
February 7, 2014

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Discussion
36 Comments
    bj
    Feb 07, 2014 07:30 AM

    I understand they inflated the employment numbers by now counting nannies and housemaids, for example, in the non-farm payrolls. Am I correct?

      Feb 07, 2014 07:23 AM

      In my opinion, looking for a job is a tough job itself. why don’t count it as a job? We have hope to get the employment to 0 if we get even more accurate definition

    Feb 07, 2014 07:37 AM

    Great discussion , I continue to follow your website. I like how your guests discuss the daily events.

    Feb 07, 2014 07:58 AM

    What about….HouseBoys ? ………. HA

    Doesn’t anyone care.

      bj
      Feb 07, 2014 07:47 AM

      By adjusting the sample space they changed the statistics to flatter their intentions. It goes to the core of credibility of those we’re suppose to give our “full faith and trust”.

      I have a dumbwaiter in my house ,,,does that count….

    Feb 07, 2014 07:07 AM

    Bj…this the new American way. Sad but true.

    b
    Feb 07, 2014 07:12 AM

    Recently, the polls have been showing fewer people believeing their governments.
    The same thing is happening to the religious organisations.

    I guess its possible people have begun to think for themselves. Longshot I know but possible.

    b
    Feb 07, 2014 07:13 AM

    I forgot to mention big companies too, but maybe people have been distrustfull of them for awhile now.

    Feb 07, 2014 07:52 AM

    One issue I find disturbing is the intrusion technology is having visa via the job market, today I was reading that a museum is employing robots for security after hours.

    McDonalds and fast food restaurants will start increasing the use of technology now that the minimum wage has gone up. Most of the jobs out there are unskilled or semi skilled, where are people going to work in the future, you can’t just give them enough money to eat, that is perpetuating permanent poverty. DT

    Feb 07, 2014 07:20 AM

    cant agree – the whole purpose of technology is to make life easier and better for everyone.

    those people whose jobs are being replaced by robot/computers are now free to pursue more worthwhile pursuits

      Feb 07, 2014 07:30 AM

      In a perfect world, yes.

      In the real world, their more worthwhile pursuit will most likely become gov’t dependency b/c more and more regular people can no longer get by in the US.

    Feb 07, 2014 07:32 AM

    yes i agree

    utopia and the time machine sum it up best

    Feb 07, 2014 07:51 AM

    Chalk it up to the Post Davos/Post Groundhogs Day rally!

    Feb 07, 2014 07:05 AM

    Despite all its problems and regulations; Despite a tyrannical Marxist despot as president, the USA is still one of the better countries to start a business.
    What a bunch of wimps the posters above sound like. Sorry, guys, it has always been the case that the most, by number, jobs available are low paying jobs. But this is still the land of opportunity.
    It is still easier in the US than most countries to make it by hard work and enterprise, without resorting to crime or cheating anybody.
    I detest, however, all the focus on Government handouts, welfare, etc., when the talk should be about enterprise, education, reduction of impediments to growth and Government getting OUT of the way.
    Now I better get off my soapbox, before somebody knocks me off this high perch.

      Feb 07, 2014 07:20 PM

      CFS, a lot of people can’t access jobs in today’s market b/c they will never have the necessary skills especially when the low level jobs are no longer there. As a society you must give these people something they can work at and not welfare and I do believe we all need a chance to feel productive and most people want to feel they are contributing and not marginalized. DT

    Feb 07, 2014 07:04 PM

    Gary, we have reached your price target of 1268. Are you buying?

      Feb 07, 2014 07:11 PM

      I did lift my hedges today. I think the miners are going to deliver a 7-10% gain next week.

    Feb 07, 2014 07:15 PM

    Today is one of the best days I’ve seen in a long while in the market. Canadian brokers are finally selling me all the shares I’m bidding for.
    Concentrating on Quebec companies I’ve been picking up shares today.
    I’m accumulating, and I’m prepared to wait however long as necessary for PMs to take off. Got to love sale prices!

    Feb 07, 2014 07:21 PM

    Gold is in Backwardation again for the first time in a while.

    Indicates physical shortage to me.

    Feb 07, 2014 07:59 PM

    As great as the two day move has been in the broad market, the moment of truth is straight ahead at the 50 day moving average (basis the S&P 500).

    As I previously mentioned — we will learn more from the bounce than the initial down draft. “Buy the Dip” has become so ingrained over the past several years, that it is reduced to muscle memory.

    Will this be the time that the ‘dip buyer’ is hurt? If they can get it out above the 50 day, the bulls may yet again have it under control. If it fails and then heads down (especially if it accelerates) through the recent low, then it is bombs away.

    Meanwhile, you’ve got to love the action in the mining stocks today. Have a good night everybody.

      Feb 07, 2014 07:57 PM

      From the strength of the market and the fact it refuses to go down with all the uncertainties and bad news, I feel it will go up in the next few months. The crash has to come later this year if it happens at all this year. Hope we don’t go into a hyper-inflationary boom directly from here.

    MANIPULATION ……COME ON…………..

    GET the real numbers…..of unemployment from JOHN WILLIAMS……

      Employment numbers………..one only has to go back to the 1970 ….to see the difference……..at 7% ,,,were there 52million on food stamps……….
      We do not have jobs….we have slave labor………

    Feb 07, 2014 07:13 PM

    Where are all the Doom and Gloomers today? Ha…..can’t believe your eyes I guess. Oh look Ma, the Dow went up 200 points but we all said it ws going to crash and now we lost our shirts on a bunch of bad bets. Can’t say I didn’t tell you but as usual nobody listens because they are so cocksure of their wrongheaded thesis. And now Zerohedge reports equity redemptions in this recent time hit an all time high as fear drove retail money like a scared beaver back into hiding. They will be back. More ammo to power things up later on. In the meantime, so much for fundamental analysis and the info that leads some of you to believe the world is about to end. Sorry, it ain’t over yet folks.

      Feb 07, 2014 07:28 PM

      The market is manipulated, the debt in all countries is huge and if you think that The Dow is coming back for anything other then a blow off top as it enters maybe it’s last sensational phase, you are not being realistic, and as you say you are a trader, I don’t want to even ascertain why?

      NYC
      Feb 08, 2014 08:52 AM

      LOL Bird…..agree

    Feb 07, 2014 07:35 PM

    I, for one, have not said it was going to crash.
    It will crash at sometime, but not yet, because stocks are expensive but not over-bought.
    I measure stocks by several measures but P/E ratio is the simplest.
    While a P/E of 17 to 20 may seem high. In an environment where bonds are earning only 2 to 3%, a 5% return (i.e. P/E = 20) is reasonable, not high relatively.

    For those that complained about coffee’s recent drop; it simply got overbought.
    PSI on CAFE and JO both went over 70. It is not uncommon to get price drops when stocks are overbought. My guess is those drops were temporary.
    I had trailing stops and was stopped out. but I believe the fundamentals are still in place for coffee and agriculturals to go up.
    I am also noticing particular relative strength in oil/gas. An example of this would be chevron, CVX. While any extrapolation of its current chart would not project an upward movement, fundamentals plus volume suggest to me a gain in near future.
    Some of the rarer metals are also strong, (Rare earths, lithium and uranium),but the market is very volatile right now.

    Anybody read the Road to Roota…..Bix Weir…….?

      Feb 08, 2014 08:46 PM

      Interesting, but a little far out for me.

      If I understood correctly, he paints Greenspan to be a closet hero working a deep game to bring us back to a gold standard. Maybe so, but it will take a lot of convincing for me to believe that. Apologies, Bix, if I got it wrong.

    CFS
    Feb 07, 2014 07:05 PM

    There are increasing rumors in Europe that the court system will rule against the European Central Bank does not have the legal ability to buy Eurobonds for the purpose of driving interest rates down. The legal argument seems simple, if I understand it:
    The ECB does not have the right ( under EU rules) to manipulate markets.
    Buying Eurobonds affects interest rates and thus is manipulating interest rates.
    How different the thinking across a few miles of Atlantic ocean!
    If the Court rules against the ECB, this will have a dramatic effect worldwide on interest rates.

    Feb 07, 2014 07:41 PM

    The BULLS are coming out of the closet!

    Never mind that they are coming out KICKING AND SCREAMING!

    There is something in the air.
    There is something fluttering in the wind.

    The GOLD BULLS sense something is changing.

    They can feel it. They can almost taste it.

    Right around the corner…

    How did that song go from “West Side Story?”

    Who knows?
    It’s only just out of reach
    Down the block, on a beach
    Under a tree
    I got a feeling there’s a miracle due
    Gonna come true
    Coming to me
    Could it be?
    Yes it could
    Something’s coming
    Something good
    If I can wait
    Something’s coming I don’t know what it is
    But it is
    Gonna be great!

    Am I wrong?

    Al has been whistling another tune from another era lately… “This could be the start of something big”

    You’re lunching at Twenty-One and watchin’ your diet
    Declining a Charlotte ruse, accepting a fig
    When out of a clear blue sky, it’s suddenly gal and guy
    And this could be the start of something big

    Great songs to be sure

    But do the lyrics really tell us the truth regarding the gold picture?

    Maybe Yes. Maybe No.

    Check out the parable of the Chinese Farmer

    So where are we really?

    Let’s start with the STOCK MARKET

    Today’s job report, and the non revised December report, were horrible.

    Everyone can agree to that (except the shills and cheerleaders that CNBC drags in now and then.)

    HOWEVER THE STOCK MARKET DOESN’T CARE.

    The stock market hit a bump in the road this week and spooked some people.

    However at the end of the day the correction was short lived and mild.

    It looks as if it is business as usual again.

    The last couple of days in spite of the data just shows this market just disregards all bad news.

    Even the taper no longer matters.

    AND THE FED WILL NEVER PUT FIGHTING BACK IN HOCKEY

    It went down a few days and everyone got excited.

    But hey they have to pretend it can go down once in a while.

    It wouldn’t be much fun if it never went down.

    There has to at least be the POSSIBILITY of it going down.

    Heck these guys don’t even tolerate one bad day anymore, let alone a week.

    Kind of the like the bank robber who wants to get away with it, but deep down he likes the thrill of knowing there’s at least a chance he can get caught.

    This is where we are in the stock market.

    Now let’s turn to GOLD

    Let’s first put the manipulation theories on the back burner.

    Once again GOLD HAD EVERY REASON TO TAKE OUT SOME RESISTANCE LEVELS AND FAILED.

    Like I pointed out almost two years ago – GOLD IS DEAD ON THE BOARD.

    Therefore the gold price action for the week is a “D”

    You might think I am being especially hard on gold – I am.

    Every time it tried to take out the $1270 – $1275 area it was wacked down, easily.

    This is a failure no matter how you look at it.

    Today’s price action looks good, but it could just be because of the Sochi news. Time will tell.

    You can claim a SMALL VICTORY and take CONSOLATION in the fact that it managed to hold support at $1250.
    This is a good thing.

    It does look like gold could be forming a bottom, or base here at the $1250 level.

    HOWEVER I honestly thought we had a triple bottom until the crushed it down in APRIL.

    SO ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE

    OIL IS QUIETLY KNOCKING ON $100 AGAIN.

    Could this portend an oil/gold rally? Who knows?

    Right now CNBC is starting to parade gold bulls out only for laughs.
    After they reluctantly say they like gold they are summarily scorned and they swab the deck.

    I dont know if this is a good thing or a bad thing.

    BOTTOM LINE…

    Right now everything is in MANAGED CHAOS

    The markets, the job numbers, QE, Emerging Markets

    This is the NEW NORMAL

    Gold will not prosper in this environment

    Bill Gross said the days of making fast money are over, and the days of making slow money might be over also.

    Stocks look like they’ve turned the corner
    MY HONEST ASSESSMENT OF THIS 14 YEAR GOLD MARKET:

    GOLD FAILED

    That’s just the truth.

    BUT FAILURE ISNT FATAL

    I am willing to believe but PATIENCE AND HOPE ARE NOT INVESTMENT STRATEGIES.

    Feb 07, 2014 07:13 PM

    I put in large investment in Intel & Cisco on the last bad in the market as I saw a big turnaround coming. Gold is again put in a weak performance so I put some of that money to work in the regular market for safety. Gold should have taken out 1300 by now and a weak period is coming soon around mid February. Took a big hit last week on NEM that got hit hard even with great production results.

      Feb 09, 2014 09:46 AM

      But Matthew called it a “buy”.