Market Commentary with Rick and Chris
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Clive Maunds thinking
Gold finally crashed key support at last year’s lows on Friday, which was a very bearish development that has opened up the prospect of an immediate severe decline at least to the strong support in the $1,000 area. Such a decline will have grave consequences for the Precious Metals mining industry, whose costs have risen sharply in recent years, and is expected to lead to a massive wave of company failures, as many who have been “hanging on by their fingernails” finally lose the fight and disappear over the cliff. This will eventually lead to an acute gold supply shortage, which will be exacerbated after the dollar’s deflation panic “swan song” rally is done, and the dollar is then pushed off its perch as the global reserve currency by the actions of China and Russia (and others) working in concert to bring it down. This will lead to a massive resurgence in gold and silver and to the stocks of mining companies who weather the imminent Great Cull going ballistic.
Don’t need to to look at gold mining. Silver mining disaster is already here. Unless the price of silver rises sharply, the over $20/ounce guys are done. Unfortunately they include nearly every one of them. The sole sure survivor I think is Silver Wheaton.
SLW is a royalty silver streaming company of perfection!
SLW will be $100 +++ one day…after silver finds its low(s) at $13-$10-$8…I’ll be buying SLW with a wheelbarrow what ever its price is @ once the bear is done with silver….unless the whole precious metals sector goes dead just as the uranium and rare earths did
It has not happened in thousands of years!
If this doesn’t cause a silver miner’s disaster I don’t know what will. Try to raise capital in this “Wiley E Coyote” moment.
I’m having a “Franky” moment. (;-)
franky is going to be pissed …..when he finds out you have enter into his creative space………….:)………..:)
That is dangerous, Dan!
And Santa Cruz Silver!
That scenario could fit into Gary’s time line. The only way I have been able to make money lately is to do short term swing trades using mostly the RSI and an educated guess.
Very interesting scenario, bb
GOOD MORNING RICKY. I’m honored I was worthy of a feature in your essay this weekend and 8 very glad to see you have remained as steadfast in your expectations for deflation as Mr Bo has on 2000 gold by years end.
I thought I would provide a quick history lesson for those on Al and Cory ‘ s sight in regards to line drawing and in particular your condescension towards your peer interviewers right here on the kereport. Here are two fabulous interviews from Oct 15th (right during the launch of the bear as you mentioned).
First from the “inflationist”
http://www.kereport.com/2014/10/15/conventional-markets-putting-intermediate-bottom/
Then the counter (note the condescending laugh at the thought of a bottom and continued bull in 5 the sm s)
http://www.kereport.com/2014/10/15/ricks-technicals-wednesday/
I do want you to know I enjoyed the read and will certainly continue to monitor your technicals as they have made for fantastic contrarian indications. I actually preemptively shorted tlt at 121 for a little profit but as my stops are break even and you have recommended I hold it I just may. I will also begin with a tranche in the pms shortly as we seem to have solid contrarian numbers in store. But I’m glad to know you think my buying power is going to increase while everything gets much cheaper in the coming months and years. Cheers
Bank of Japan decided to go all in.
Everyone is buying everything with a Yen going down the toilet.
They are buying stocks, they are buying real estate, they are buying art, diamonds, cars, wine, everything they can fetmtheir hands off.
They are exiting yen and buying anything. Except gold and silver.
Does this really make sense to anyone?
Rick calls it deflation
james you are the poster investor example for the pm’s sector, its like a deer locked in the headlights of an oncoming freight train…chooo-chooo
anyone can make money in a bull market but when it ends investors look to common sense and fundamentals to hold onto losing positions….WTF
I thought you said in big block letters the bottom was in!!! buy, buy, buy just a couple weeks ago? what typing in big block letters creates THE bottom, maybe open your window (please don’t jump) and yell out the bottom is in, maybe the BOJ will hear you and buy Yen and sell US dollars….not!!!
Why people continue to fight the trend in motion is beyond me, searching for answers from the same clowns who have been wrong for years….perhaps sell an oz and hire a shrink…good luck!
Hey where did the god fearing goofball HH go, I miss all his brother love see you on gold island crap….ya and I’m the idiot, what a joke
I agree.
However that can’t explain why everything else is going up.
However I should add oil is starting to crack as well.
It’s all manipulated, some things lower, some things higher
I said it before and i will say it again..the US CONTROLS THE MARKETS with their reserve currency they can PRINT PRINT PRINT so no matter what money they lose it doesn’t matter. They want to kill the mining of gold and silver to absolute zero then when all the companies are bankrupt and out of business they will buy them up…again it costs nothing more then a little bit of ink or data entry points….buy up the mining business and so we go to a gold standard…no big deal thye control the gold…and the world currency in a new form…..You can’t win against an unlimitied printing press
When they revalue………..it will be a lot higher than it is………..You can not win with SHORT TERM THINKING………….they want it , and you must have some of what they value…………….
I completely agree with your comment about short term thinking, out of the Box!
I have to disagree Reo. The world can win if the others want to!
Rick A looks like your much, much lower Oil call will be in play soon enough, Gary you better sell your long oil trade
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-03/wti-tumbles-29-month-lows-after-saudi-price-cut
only reason the HUI is up today is the Q results from AU…too bad Goldcorp, Newmont and Barrick didn’t deliver the same as that would have put in a trade able bottom heading into tax loss selling…oh well
AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (AU) -NYSE
10.14 Up 1.87(22.61%)
JJ sometime ago you had a comment about M Armstrong. I looked up his site, best financil advice I have received for a long time, and thankyou
well 1 out of a 1000 isn’t bad, good for you, glad you benefited as there is nobody better on the planet when it comes to global capital flows mainly because it is not his egotistic opinion but all computer data facts, gold bugs hate him and I’m a gold bug, but I trade from both sides so I don’t care what gold does while it finds its bottom..he has made me a lot of money. Marty still see’s $4500-$5gs years from now not based on a US dollar collapse but a collapse in confidence towards global governments…time will tell
What is Armstrong full name. Can’t find him on google
Go to http://www.armstrongeconomics.com SILVERMAN.
Then click the link for his blog.
He is a popular guy. I would l like to have him on our show, but apparently he has no interest. Oh well!
JJ,
People who have allowed themselves to become consumed with the gold and silver story for the most part can’t be talked out of thinking foolishly and dangerously when their belief system is effectively a cult mental state of mind that financially, if not timed correctly and intelligently can be as dangerous as a Jim Jones toxic koolaid death rehearsal of brainwashed followers marching to their own demise.
Watching the destructiveness of a gold and silver bear market and its powerful hold over people who refuse to step aside and remain solvent when all objective evidence shows that this is what they should do leaves one wondering how mankind ever got this far in his evolutionary growth.
The commitment to self destructive behavior in this complex is simply stunning to watch from the sidelines.
The carnage in this sector has farther to go. And it will be immense. But all you have to do is step asside until the smoke clears.
Someday in the future there will be a time to reinvest in this sector, but by all accounts and a simple elementary connect the dots assessment tells you that that time is not now.
By the time this correction has run its course I expect this site and the greater community here to be a wasteland of depression, excuses and the old tried and true blame someone else syndrome.
lol really hard and V they will still be calling the bottom all the way down. Exactly what you have said why can’t the gurus say the same at amin, step aside make some money in the US equites and wait for confirmation the gold bull has returned, yet every $100 pop brings out calls to the moon, insane!
R.A. very smart guy but has not made a penny shorting the pm’s sector, whats up with that?????
Manipulation will always be excuse #1 yet why would anyone use that as it clearly suggest your not too bright, why would you trade a manipulated market….hello!
JJ,
Good point on Rick not making money in a clear down trend setting. He has been a staunch deflation guy like forever and he never pulled the trigger on PM’s weakening and making some cash while riding it to the downside.
Simply amazing.
V. I don’t listen to Rick very often but I know he is a deflationist. Why didn’t he short gold, or silver especially, if he thinks deflation is coming? It seems a no-brainer. Any idea why?
You are a smart guy V, so why do you listen to Rick?
Hi Al,
Actually, I really like and appreciate your way a thinking Al. I think we should listen to everyone just as you always like to say. There are some exceptions and no one has all the answers that’s for sure, but generally I’m very open to a serious and well balanced thesis.
I listen to Rick because I think he offers value and smarts to the equation. My only thing with rick was I was surprised he didn’t do more in the area of shorting or hedging with his clear bias to the deflation camp with a weakening trend in the metals.
In full disclosure I didn’t get everything correct myself. We live and learn and rise to fight another day.
V
As you know V with my personal timeframe it makes no difference. Hey man, good to have you participating!
Al, thank you for providing all of us this superb site to exchange ideas.
V
No Lawrence I really don’t. Rick is a lot smarter than I am so it is surprising because all of those pivot points had to tell the story in some form or fashion.
They were certainly telling him there was deflation coming.
Funny Rick you will short a bull market which is obviously the US equities of which the past 3+ years has been buy the dips, which is classic bull market action.
Yet gold has been in a bear market for 3+ years and you don’t short a bear market as clearly the trade in gold for years has been sell into all rallies.
Rick your pm’s targets and Oil are very real based on the action of the BOJ..the upcoming ECB and the US$ rally they will continue to create..can’t wait for all the goldbugs here to light up and pile on your targets, oh they only do that to me, lol
Gold hitting the 50dma @ $1250 and then not holding $1242 while the miners were flat lined was a signal to cut long positions and get short, again as miners lead down yet again.
and all those that think gold is manipulated wake up!!! every central bank in the world is desperate to create inflation NOT deflation and gold tanking off $1923 is very deflationary, think about it, the anti gold banks should be popping gold and silver trying to create the myth of inflation in assets that everyone looks towards as inflation indicators.