Gary believes that after some hiccups we will see a very strong gold market.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Also when oil reverses (and I’ve targeted the $64-$66 range for about a month now as it’s ceiling). This will be the summer reversal, and time to get out of the way of the whipsaw, or trade it back and forth if that suits your fancy (risky though).
Does anyone think natural gas will get caught in this downward spiral when dollar reverses? I have natural gas, and thinking that it probably already bottomed.
Be interested to hear what you think of the other Daily Editorials we did today, Shad
I’ve been listening to them and enjoying them Big Al! (as I do every day)
You and Cory do a great job with our 4 Musketeers (Gary, Doc, Rick, Chris).
The weekend shows are always stacked with other top shelf commentators, mining executives, economists, newsletter writers, and kindred spirits.
Thank you for all the work you and Cory do to make this show and forum come to life.
Gary,
Good take on PMs. Long, mid and short term. I’m not sure if I would hold long over night right now. But, we will see.
A reversal on PMs and the dollar will come. When is the question.
I agree Chartster… when will the dollar stop dropping? I am still on the fence in terms of how fast gold will drop.
My gold bear position is getting HAMMERED today but I am sitting tight. My long position in oil is green so I am good there.
Here’s a 12mn video to chill – Franky style 🙂 Enjoy,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Czy0pXRRZcs
Best to all,
LPG
Franky style….I love it…..Cool is the way!
Can’t take the time to chill LPG!
Hello Al,
Have a glance once you have time. I will likely relax your mind.
As I say to a close friend who almost always tense: “take the time to chill… coz nobody else can do it for you”. 😉
Best,
LPG
The shares I watch have done almost nothing, they had a pop but now down again, big winner is 2%.
Just seems to me there are so few buyers its very difficult to get any kinda rise in them.
People are just not interested in gold.
Not yet, which is still a good thing.
Maybe you’r watching the wrong shares bb. The action is in Silver miners as discussed all Weekend show.
PureFunds ISE Junior Silver ETF (SILJ) -NYSEArca
8.10 Up 0.35(4.48%) 12:39PM EDT
Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. (FSM) -NYSE Watchlist
4.01 Up 0.23(6.08%) 1:21PM EDT
First Majestic Silver Corp. (AG) -NYSE
5.34 Up 0.24(4.71%) 1:21PM EDT
Endeavour Silver Corp. (EXK) -NYSE
2.26 Up 0.10(4.40%) 1:19PM EDT
Hecla Mining Co. (HL) -NYSE
3.25 Up 0.10(3.17%) 1:22PM EDT
Great Panther Silver Ltd (GPL) -NYSE MKT
0.59 Up 0.01(2.50%) 1:23PM EDT
In addition Uranium stocks have been on a tear since last week and some stocks are up over 12% since then. See the post on Chris T.’s blog yesterday for individual stocks.
P.S. – The audio commentators didn’t really talk about Silver miners on the weekend show, but the forum blog was chock full of Silver mining stocks, analysis, charts, etc….
Take another look at Santacruz Silver.
Yes, I am absolutely a fan of Santacruz Silver, and really enjoyed their segment. They are ready to rock and roll now for sure.
My point was that the macro commentators weren’t discussing the upside in silver miners compared to the gold miners in the short and mid term, in a more general sense.
I just checked gpr, up 1.43% a penny, looks like your looking at the American markets, I watch Canadian, a little different.
I don’t bother with GPR,FR, negative earning per shares, they losing money, havnt checked the others you mentioned, the ones I watch make money at about 7-$800 gold if I recall.
They pay dividends, cash on hand and cash flow yadda yadda.
If theyre not profitable under $1000 gold Im not interested right now.
Interesting tho, that companies losing money are increasing more than profitable companies that pay dividends.
Looks like some companies are a little more into marketing than others I would say.
BB – Yes I follow the US tickers and Great Panther was up 3.37% on the day, and they are a Silver company, not a Gold company, and they are making money, so I am not sure we’re talking about the same company.
Great Panther Silver Ltd (GPL) -NYSE MKT
0.60 Up 0.02(3.37%) 4:04PM EDT
Great Panther Silver Limited, a silver mining and exploration company, engages in the mining of mineral properties in Mexico. The company explores for silver, gold, lead, and zinc. It primarily owns a 100% interest in the Topia Mine consisting of 53 contiguous concessions covering approximately 6,258 hectors in Durango State; and a 100% interest in the Guanajuato silver-gold mine covering 1,107 hectares situated in the Guanajuato Mining District. The company also owns interest in the San Ignacio project, which lies within La Luz mining camp of the Guanajuato Mining District. In addition, it owns two exploration stage properties, such as the Santa Rosa project comprising 4 mining concessions that covers an area of approximately 1,514 hectares, located to the northeast of Guanajuato; and the El Horcon project, which consists of 17 contiguous mining concessions covering an area of approximately 7,908 hectares, located northwest of Guanajuato. Great Panther Silver Limited was founded in 1965 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
For the record here is how Great Panther Silver is doing from their Q1 release:
Highlights compared to first quarter 2014 (“Q1 2014”), unless otherwise noted
Record metal production of 987,887 Ag eq oz, representing a 48% increase and driven primarily by the addition of production from San Ignacio;
San Ignacio production increased by 164,982 Ag eq oz, to 217,429 Ag eq oz;
Silver production increased 61% to a new quarterly record of 597,111 silver ounces;
Gold production increased 28% to 4,703 gold ounces;
Cash cost per silver payable ounce decreased 35% to US$8.71;
All-in sustaining cost per silver payable ounce (“AISC”) decreased 39% to US$14.47
Revenues increased 57% to $20.3 million;
Net income totalled $3.6 million, compared to a net loss of $0.6 million;
Adjusted EBITDA was $3.7 million compared to negative $0.5 million; and,
Cash flow from operating activities, before changes in non-cash net working capital (“NCWC”), amounted to $4.8 million compared to $0.6 million.
Highlights compared to fourth quarter 2014 (“Q4 2014”), unless otherwise noted
Metal production on a Ag eq oz basis increased 8%;
Cash cost per silver payable ounce decreased 29% and AISC decreased 32%;
Revenues increased 42%;
Adjusted EBITDA increased to $3.7 million compared to negative $1.2 million;
Cash flow from operating activities, before changes in NCWC, improved by $6.1 million;
Cash and cash equivalents were $18.7 million at March 31, 2015 compared to $18.0 million at December 31, 2014; and,
Net working capital increased to $36.9 million at March 31, 2015 from $32.9 million at December 31, 2014.
Thanks Shad for the Great Panther update.
As Tony The Tiger says…….Great Panther is doing “G-R-E-A-T”!
BB – Also the rest of the companies I mentioned above and below were Silver companies or Silver ETFs, and they are without a doubt most of the leaders in the space.
Sprott Physical Silver Trust ET (PSLV)
Silver Wheaton Corp. (SLW)
Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS)
Coeur Mining, Inc. (CDE)
Silver Standard Resources Inc. (SSRI)
PureFunds ISE Junior Silver ETF (SILJ)
First Majestic Silver Corp. (AG)
Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. (FSM)
Endeavour Silver Corp. (EXK)
Hecla Mining Co. (HL)
Great Panther Silver Ltd (GPL)
There are some smaller producers and many explorers not on that list, but these companies are the baseline of the silver mining marketplace.
Your comments show you weren’t really looking at the companies or don’t know anything about silver miners.
“havnt checked the others you mentioned, the ones I watch make money at about 7-$800 gold if I recall.
They pay dividends, cash on hand and cash flow yadda yadda.
If theyre not profitable under $1000 gold Im not interested right now.
Interesting tho, that companies losing money are increasing more than profitable companies that pay dividends.
Looks like some companies are a little more into marketing than others I would say.”
Again, those are the flagship Silver companies, some do pay dividends, most are still doing quite well at $17 silver, and none of them really need to market themselves.
gpr. earning per share, -.24
I take that to mean they are losing money, I look for + eps.
I first bought gpr at 25 cents which seems about a hundred years ago now, but silver miners have taken a terrible beating so I stayed away from them, except for a free one or 2 I kept.
Correct: Great Panther Silver 1Q EPS $C0.03 >GPL
Wednesday 05/06/2015 08:16 PM ET – Dow Jones News
I’m not sure where you are getting the -.24 EPS, because they just announced last week an EPS of $.03 per share in Canadian currency, but they have done a lot to improve operations so maybe you are looking at 2014 annual numbers, instead of their most recent quarter, post-merger and mine improvements.
You are correct BB that Silver shares have taken an absolute beating…..That is when you want to buy them…..when there is blood in the streets. If we get a wash out where miners take it on the chin, I’ll be buying more, because they will survive this silver downturn and thrive afterwards.
GPL just spent an uncharacteristic amount of money to acquire Cangold Limited in February, so I would expect things to get better as silver prices improve and get back to the $18-$20 range. I think would be much different moving forward as here is their costs:
Cash cost per silver payable ounce decreased 35% to US$8.71;
All-in sustaining cost per silver payable ounce (“AISC”) decreased 39% to US$14.47
You can see where their Revenues increased 57% to $20.3 million due to this reduction.
I’ve owned Great Panther on and off again since 2010, but just established another new position recently when they sold off a little at the beginning of the year to make this merger happen as it gives them 2 more key assets, and they have the cash-flow to make them work where Cangold was stuck in the muck, with no way to raise money.
This was over a $4.00 stock in 2011 at the peak of the cyclical bull in gold mining stocks, and has sold down hard like almost every silver company. In addition, they had some cost control issues in 2012-2014, that they have made huge strives to address and they really have revamped everything and brought additional ore bodies into production now that have really helped all in sustaining costs big time. Lastly, they did have a crazy thing happen last year where protesters had broken in and vandalized their mine and living quarters, and they lost a little time mining.
What I see is a quality mid-tier producer, that had their butts handed to them the last few years in a declining silver space, but they did all the correct activity to right the ship, have their costs under control, have 2 solid mines and a 3rd being developed, and about 4 other key exploration properties post merger.
I would recommend at least keeping an eye on them and easily see them getting back up in the $1-$2 range in 1-2 years or higher, once things rebound in commodities, but to each their own.
Good luck in your investing BB, but I wouldn’t rule out the silver miners over the next 12 months. I expect them to outperform most of the gold miners.
BTW – There are silver companies that I like more that Great Panther (like Hecla and Endeavour and First Majestic in the mid-tier space), and in the smaller producers like (Scorpio, Alexco, Sierra Metals, the reforming Aurcana, and yes Big Al – even Santacruz Silver is looking good)
Here is the 1st Quarter Update from Scorpio Mining:
Two of my seven are in the red today, too. Stocks are acting as individuals, not a herd.
Agreed. But overall the mid-tier Silver producers are doing very well. I think the Silver Jr Miner ETF (SILJ) up 4.48% is a pretty good indication as there are about 40 silver stocks in that basket.
Here are the major Silver Miners – all up along with the Sprott Silver ETF in the 3-4.5% range in lock-step. It is always a stock pickers market, but almost all the significant silver producers are up today. Look at Silver Standard Resources today!
Silver Wheaton Corp. (SLW) -NYSE
20.98 Up 0.84(4.17%) 1:35PM EDT
Sprott Physical Silver Trust ET (PSLV) -NYSEArca
6.61 Up 0.25(3.93%) 1:38PM EDT
Coeur Mining, Inc. (CDE) -NYSE
5.62 Up 0.18(3.29%) 1:35PM EDT
Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS) -NasdaqGS
10.16 Up 0.41(4.21%) 1:35PM EDT
Silver Standard Resources Inc. (SSRI) -NasdaqGS
6.31 Up 0.83(15.15%) 1:37PM EDT – Over 15% increase today – Gazooks!
I agree with Brien when he says, “not yet and that is a good thing”!
The worlds CB’s have created great distortions where conventional economic thinking and trend plays fail to place investors on a profitable footing. It now appears as if what was up is now down; right is now the new left, and as a result, an investor must position himself contrary. The economy (as measured by GDP) is flat to down; yet the equity markets drift skyward. As the economy sinks into recession; bond yields begin an inexorable rise. Savers are decimated as financial repression becomes the law of the world – WTF.
Thinking and investing along the lines of workable scenarios in the 80’s and 90’s now results in tremendous portfolio loss. I do believe conventionalism will rule the day – how far in the future till the reset, no one knows, however, it seems ever closer as I tear off each calendar page. Would it not be prudent to simply stand aside and let the geniuses (who believe they have it all figured out) continue to play the markets; so I can pick up the pieces at discounted prices after the reset? That seems a viable strategy in lieu of all this mumbo jumbo which is foisted as market analysis propounding portfolio diversification based on reading tea leaves, gut feelings, chicken entrails, etc. – anything to keep the minions in the markets!
Just once in my life I would like to read a high profile analyst who just tells the truth – “In this environment, I have no idea what is happening (or going to happen) so best to step aside, hang on to your money so you can play when sanity reigns”. But as we know – that type of advice does not sell subscriptions nor generate commissions.
David,
Very well said. Bring on the reset!
Agreed. Very well said David.
I have to point out that if you know what the truth is, then you DO know what is happening yet claim that no one does.
Also, the closest one can get to “stepping aside” is to hang onto gold money not government debt money. The last few years notwithstanding, this is the safest big-picture bet.
Funny David, that is pretty much what I said in three editorials so far today.
I may not be the brightest light bulb in the string, but I do realize common sense when I see it!
“Not the brightest bulb in the string” … now that is funny.
Permission to use that one this weekend, Al?
The hand-wringing continues and the miners look better than fine. I’m sure many are taking this “opportunity” to sell in May.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p91984405141&a=401328840
I’ll be selling in May if we get a little more upside in the miners over the next week or so, but want to see if this has any legs first.
Personally, I still am waiting for the summer washout to hit but this won’t start until oil gets up a little higher ($64-$66) and then turns down, and the US dollar gets down near 92, and bond market sorts it’s identity out but starts to have lower yields again touching all time lows.
Shad, you say that like it’s a done deal, but what if there is no washout? I do expect a daily top in June or sooner, but I don’t believe that we’re going to get a weekly top until much later.
WMK,
I’ve actually asked myself exactly the same question: what if there’s no washout…?
Best to you & GL to all investing/trading.
LPG
what if there’s no washout…?
https://www.dropbox.com/s/gnyjpzzfpr1anih/GLD-UUP.jpg?dl=0
You are correct WMK, nothing is guaranteed, that is just my current plan, and like the Fed says, “It is data dependent.” 🙂
Of course things could always change, and you’re 100% correct to challenge the assumptions I made. It just my personal plan I am sharing.
Just so you know I haven’t ruled out the lows may have come in Nov. and I said so to Gary yesterday.
On May 12, 2015 at 12:01 pm,
Shad says:
“I haven’t lost site of the fact that we haven’t disproved that November was the lows in gold and the miners yet, so we still could be in a stealth bull market and not even realize it. I’m not really married to a bullish position, and if it looks like the washout is coming on hard, then I’ll obviously trim positions or sell most positions and get out of the way of the falling knives.”
So while it is possible that we won’t have the washout, in my opinion, it isn’t as probable as retesting the Nov. lows later this year in spot pricing. Now, as we’ve discussed quite often, that doesn’t mean the miners will test their lows.
Hey I could also be figgin’ crazy too, so what do I know? 😉
Thanks. I new you were crazy! 😉
The most wonderful thing about the early stages of a new bull market is that no one believes in them. It’s called climbing the wall of worry and most investors are going to be left behind.
Forget all the TA and opinion and nonsense from the preambles. Buy when things are cheap. Sell when they are dear.
Things are really cheap right now.
Bob, take a look at V.FMG. Would love your take.
I have owned shares in FMG for years. I wish they would do something. They are in a good neighborhood but you have to keep projects moving forward. They haven’t even updated parts of their web site since 2011. They have nice results but need to drill and to do that they need money.
Yes, they certainly are, Roert!
Jim is working on it. He is not a pump and dumper and doesn’t want to update when nothing is going on. Once things are moving the company will update the website. Why update with fluff makes u look like fluff. I am a massive shareholder so am bias. Jim is a honest guy that has a lot of skin in FMg. And the drill results are matched by very few.
I agree with Bob except for “forget the TA.”
Good points Bob. Buying when things are cheap and selling when they are dear is great. Some of the miners were more cheap last week : – )
As for opinions, what an investor personally considers “cheap” is their opinion, unless of course they do some FA and TA, so TA has it’s place.
But I do agree with you that people love to complicate things with too much TA and over analyze everything, and that most people won’t recognize the early stages of a bull market.
Nonsense. Silver was cheap at $4 and obviously cheap. The fact that no one wanted it didn’t change the fact that it was cheap at $4. Likewise it was expensive at $49++ in April of 2011 regardless of the fact that everyone loved it. It really is that simple.
Everyone has an idea of what every market will do on any given day and can draw beautiful squiggles on charts but having an opinion isn’t the same as making money. I heard it said once that opinions are like anal orifices. Everyone has one and most of them stink.
I have watched people use TA for 50 years and while it’s cute, I don’t know anyone who can accurately call markets using nothing but TA. It may be interesting but it’s more noise than signal.
And I know that all the fundaments are aligned at both tops and bottoms. When everything is going perfectly for an investment, you should sell and when everything is a perfect disaster, you should buy.
But buying cheap and selling dear is easier. And more profitable.
I do agree with you that using (fundamental analysis) FA to buy cheap (when everythings a perfect disaster) is important, and selling dear (when everything is going perfect) is when to take profits.
$4 silver and $49 silver are the extreme pole in the Silver universe, and are more obvious that $15-$17 silver, where we are getting into the neighborhood closer to the all in costs of production. At this point it can be more someone’s opinion on if $16 Silver or $20 Silver is expensive or cheap. TA can be a nice tool, in conjunction with fundamental analysis, market sentiment, and experience. Many people do take technical analysis to the extremes though and do way out on a limb with beautiful charts and squiggles though….for sure 🙂
BTW – I’ve been a Uranium miner buyer for the last year, so I do get the concept of buying the unloved assets when it is a perfect disaster 🙂
Cheap obviously is relative, we never know when things are going to get cheaper but in the range from $49++ to $14, silver is cheap in here. It got up to 75 to 1 to gold so even relative to gold it’s cheap. People tend to way overthink investing. I remember back in 2004 when someone had bought Silverado at $.10 and it went to $.75 and he wanted to know what to do. I said sell if you want a profit. He did sell. Eventually. At $.05.
If you wan’t take a profit when you can, the only other alternative is to take a loss.
I concur 100% sir, and have been guilty of taking profits a little too early at times, but better than the opposite. I always respect your opinion Bob, and keep things simple.
Much appreciated and have a wonderful night!
We have interesting times ahead and there will be some wonderful opportunities to make money in resource shares. You don’t have to be a permabull or marry shares to profit.
The more we ask of our charts, the more difficult it is to get things right consistently, but countless traders know for a fact that TA is profitable. Interpretation and application is everything and that comes down to the individual, not TA in general.
I know that the more strictly I apply my signals, the better the result. Every time I mess up it’s because I’ve veered from the signals that work.
Having said that, I look at it as another tool, not something to live and die by like most chartists.
Very well said WMK.
TA can be another tool to complement fundamental analysis, and the 2 come together to give one a general overview of sentiment towards a stock or sector.
At that point, using common sense when these indicators paint a picture that an asset is undervalued is the time to buy, and when it becomes over-valued is the time to sell.
For folks that wonder, revelations are here:
http://www.talkshoe.com/talkshoe/web/talkCast.jsp?masterId=85857
L8r ~ Wolf Wall Street
anyone see captain wave on gold eagle….?
Major Markets Via E-Wave Analysis
By Captain Ewave – May 12, 2015
We can now likely conclude that wave *ii* of .c. in gold has ended at 1178.20, a 20 tick failure on our charts, meaning we were targeting 1178, and gold went 20 cents shy of that.
Read More »
how bout gold separating from the mining stocks
I think that a better way to put it Agatha is, “mining stocks separating from gold”!
Divergence has been the new normal…. (now that’s a far-out statement)
Today though, Gold, Silver, Platinum, and Palladium were up together, and the vast majority of the miners I follow were up nicely. The one exception were the PGM miners & explorers, which were all down from yesterday, but I’ve noticed in this sector that often the spot price and the equities are negatively correlated for some reason.
Uranium miners, Fertilizer and Potash companies, Lithium miners/producers, and Rare Earths were up.
Base Metals and Oil were mixed bags.
Looking at the GDXJ chart, as offered as an example of miner strength, has me baffled! Lower lows and lower highs is a sign of sustainability? Hey, but who knows, in this up is now down world one could hypothesize it does illustrate bullishness. In the old days, the chart would be a poster child for: Lower lows to come; caveat emptor. Carpe diem boys!
Agreed David. I am seizing the day as in the mid-term there could definitely be a break down, but many times we need a bullish impulse leg to get everyone back in before the rug gets pulled back out from under them again.
It’s a day to day adventure for sure!
I thought we all knew that we are talking within the context of the bigger cyclical downtrend. There’s more to TA than just one obvious trend. A market has to turn somewhere and there’s a smaller trend (higher highs, higher lows!) that is up and looking better and better.
RSI, MACD and price just made a new high today; price is above important moving averages which have bullishly turned up; daily MACD has been on a buy since 3/18 (weekly MACD has been on a buy since 1/1 -meaning the big drop into March could’ve been bought with confidence, which I did).
As of today, GDXJ was up 29.5% in just two months and practically no one seems to have noticed much less capitalized on it. Some even suggest that it has been “sideways action.”
Carpe diem indeed!
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=22&id=p42968320630&a=408031879
Btw, there are a lot of indicators that are meant to be used in conjunction with price action but few seem to do it.
Agree WMK> This was a pop (aka a counter-trend breakout in a cyclical downtrend), packaged within an even larger secular uptrend.
It’s like there is the Secular Interstate, with Cyclical highways, and mini-dirt roads.
Yes the MACD is a good indicator, breaking above the trendline and 20 week MA, the bollinger band, and the prior peak in GDXJ, and the falling dolllar and wacko bond market gives PMs a little more oomph.
The counter-trend (pop) was expected, but I have no idea how much momentum there will be hehind it. My best guess is a week or two until I we revert back to the downtrend into summer (but that is merely speculation, but with good reasons).
We’ll have to let it cook a little while, and then check the thermometer in a week or two to see if the turkey is done.
I like your analogy but I disagree with calling this a “pop” since the rise out of the March low has been anything but “poppy,” for the most part. Here we are almost 30% higher in two months and no one seems to have noticed it. It has been very unlike the previous bear rallies that flew sharply higher only to burn out and spend much more time dropping.
There’s nothing wrong with waiting for the bigger trend to change but it’s not in me to do that.
I see more upside from here but there will be pullbacks.
I hear what you are saying about the larger “unnoticed” 30% up trend out of March. My frame of reference was based on the last 2-3 weeks since the pop and decline in late April through present.
The “pop” I was referring to was the pop from 1180 on March 11 to 1215 today in just 2 days. Gold got stuck in a range between $1177 – $1193 since May 1st, and finally decisively broke above that level is all I’m saying. It was a bit more dramatic and had more conviction than the action lately. I also think it has room to go from here, but will be short-lived (5-8 days) in my opinion.
For me a Pop as I throw the word around is temporary counter-trend move to the larger cyclical trend. Its not very specific time-wise, but to me implies a short duration. A new upleg or 1, 3, 5 wave up or 2, 4 wave down in Elliot Wave Theory can be a bit longer, but can be used in very small or long time frames as well. A pop is usually 2-7 % , just like a dip is – 2-7%. Anything more is a new wave up or a bigger correction down.
Words are clumsy and different people associate different meaning with them. I do agree with you though that the move out of March has been much stronger than most anticipated (me included) or have realized (99% of main-stream media).
I do see more upside from here in the short-term though.
Watch bonds and they will signal problems.
It’s healthy when the sector takes more time to rise. It keeps that wall of worry going.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=9&dy=0&id=p97513412600&a=404851394
I agree on watching the bond market Bob M. It has been a circus lately, but the long term treasuries and 30 year bonds have been pushing the markets around as of late.
At this point, a sub 1k washout in Gold has been “in the cards” since forever. It has yet to appear. In the mean time, good gold companies are making money and building massive bases. If we get a $50 pop the payoff will be very nice. The downside of these stocks are much less than you think. I’m with Doc on this one. I’m also with other non gold bugs who know charts and fundamentals, they like this action as it has been very profitable for 5 months now. The longer the wall of worry is stretched out the better as it keeps the froth out. There are 35+ good gold/silver plays out there all showing very solid chart strength. The next %-5-10 hit to the conventional markets will only accelerate the sector rotation which has been happening more 5 months now in the PM’s. It is still very hard psychologically to invest in a sector whose recent past has left a path of pain and sorrow for so so many people who believed that non-state controlled markets existed. Still digital printing of fiat has its limits and those limits will be revealed in the passage of time….wheather it be 5 months or 5 years down the road. Good luck KERers!
Very good thoughts Confused. This is why I’ve been in the miners about 40% of the overall position I want, because there has been some good strength in them since the end of last year. The miners are individual businesses and their merit should really be weighed individually, as some are doing very well in the current environment.
The washout won’t appear until the dollar bottoms and starts heading back up, and until oil tops and starts heading back down.
Also, when the bond yields come back down this will be an indicator to watch, as they may reverse everything that just happened over the last few weeks and make all time lows in interest rates one last time. That should coincide with the bottom in commodities. I would suggest caution in the current PM rally, as it likely won’t last a very long time before heading back down into the summer doldrums.
One more point about “managed” markets. They have been around forever. This is not new. The scale however is new. There is a lot of risk in the NYC exchanges and having faith that the “Fed has your back” will eventually be revealed as the stupidest advice in the world. No offence to Gary here!!! My point is that eventually the game will change because of factors that fiat printing won’t be able to manage and repair. Sure it could be further down the road, but thinking you will be smarted than the market to get out of the way is hubris. Remember hubris is what got us here!
True indeed Shad. Still not a good reason to be completely out at this point or over the summer. Too many turds & dirty swans flying about. I might sell in a week or so but ONLY if that dollar heads back up in a convincing manner. Too many traders assume that will happen which makes it a dangerous call in my books. Will react appropriately when the time comes.
Yep. I’m thinking along the same lines…..and am poised to react quickly….while watching out for the many turds & dirty swans flying about. It’s a messy job……
I’m leaning towards just trimming positions that are profitable if we get a big spike up soon, and lowering my overall cost basis in those positions and then see what kind of downtrend we get (mild mannered or the big wash).
Messy job, but somebody has to do it!
Buy Sell GREAT PANTHER SILVER LTD 10:57:08 AM EDT
Symbol T Bid Ask Last Change Volume FSI
GPR CA T + 0.70 0.71 0.71 0.00 (0.00%) 69,000
Bid Lots 28 Ask Lots 24 Earn. Per Share -0.24
Day High 0.71 Day Low 0.70 Price/Earnings 0
Open 0.70 Yield 0.00 Dividend 0.00
52 Week High 1.60 52 Week Low 0.63 Ex-Dividend
Does earn per share -.24 mean GPR is losing .24 per share? What am I misunderstanding?
Also, note GPR hasn’t budged.
I don’t think people are interested in PMs yet, remember, they have been burned repeatedly, PM price might have to show its up and going to stay up.
Just saw your post Shad, eps is from the broker site, checked 2 they the same, maybe the info is months old? No idea why that would be the case but maybe.
Also, GPR (not that it matters) pays no dividend.
Its also barely moving, we just hit 1227 about gold price and gpr didn’t move.
Hey BB – Just saw your responses down here. Yeah their 1st quarter press release from May 6th had them at $.03 EPS in Canadian currency, and it you look at the stats posted from that release it shows the same for Q1. They did have a -(.19) EPS in Q4 so maybe it’s pulling in old data and hasn’t updated to the new info yet, as it’s only been a week.
Great Panther has done a great deal to improve their operations, just acquired a company so they are on the offensive, and their all in costs are lower than the current Silver price so they are making money at this level. It will be much better for them and producers like Scorpio and Alexco once Silver is at $19 and above.
I do believe Great Panther will get re-rated by the marketplace though and will be a $2+ stock in 1-2 years. It isn’t going out of business anytime soon, and the time to buy assets is when they are unloved and cheap. That would be anything under $.75 Canadian.
Regardless, I didn’t mean to get camped out on Great Panther, as isn’t my favorite Silver stock, as mentioned up above:
On May 14, 2015 at 3:30 am,
Shad says:
BTW – There are silver companies that I like more than Great Panther (like Hecla and Endeavour and First Majestic in the mid-tier space), and in the smaller producers like (Scorpio, Alexco, Sierra Metals, the reforming Aurcana, and yes Big Al – even Santacruz Silver is looking good)
My point yesterday up above, was that as sector, on the initial push out of the gate, the mid-tier and major Silver producers out-performed the gold producers. I expect that trend to continue when silver does finally get up in the $19 range and above later this year. At that point, waiting to see interest from other investors will be too late and one would miss 20-30% moves in this sector. It sounds like you prefer Gold companies, because you keep measuring the silver companies against Gold’s movements. To me the Silver price is much more relevant since that is their commodity (most also have base metal credits in Lead, Zinc, Copper so those can affect the economics as well).
Good luck to you in your investing BB.
Shad, GPR in 2 years being $2 is pretty much a no brainer if gold goes up a bit.(the market keeps working ,brokers don’t go broke banks don’t freeze or bail everything in lol)
There are a few no brainers out there, the trick is owning the most “no brainer” you can find.
agreed.
There is a very interesting ETF (SILJ) that gives someone an exposure to almost every company in the Junior Silver mining and some of the mid-tiers. I like holding some of these stocks separately to trade, but I may just take a long term holding in this ETF because it does have a nice mix. I’ll list it here so people can also check out these companies individually:
PureFunds ISE Junior Silver (Small Cap Miners/Explorers) ETF (SILJ) as of 05/08/2015
Silver Equity % Total Net Assets Quantity Market Value (Base)
HOCHSCHILD MINING 13.80% HOC LN 429054 678043.51
MAG SILVER CORP COM 12.60% MAG CN 88406 618699.39
FORTUNA SILVER MINES INC COM 10.69% FVI CN 140790 525261.94
MANDALAY RES CORP COM 7.61% MND CN 507500 373640.24
ENDEAVOUR SILVER CORP 5.82% EXK 140719 285659.57
TREVALI MINING CORP 5.21% TV CN 262278 256018.56
SILVER STANDARD RESOURCES 4.91% SSO CN 45095 241357.20
SILVERCORP METAL INC COM 4.56% SVM CN 176837 223816.53
BEAR CREEK MNG CORP COM 4.54% BCM CN 230358 222954.76
SIERRA METALS INC 4.30% SMT CN 182230 211045.21
SILVERCREST MINES, INC. SVL CN 189718 200884.34 4.089809295
GREAT PANTHER SILVER LTD GPL 356526 195732.77 3.984928352
SABINA GOLD & SILVER CORP COM SBB CN 530000 157835.96 3.213386251
ALEXCO RESOURCE CORP AXU 292228 117504.88 2.392284786
SCORPIO MNG CORP COM SPM CN 559618.96 115733.75 2.356226306
GOLDEN MINERALS CO AUMN 231794 95267.33 1.93954995
AURCANA CORPORATION AUN CN 244602 49573.97 1.009277693
SANTACRUZ SILVER MNG LTD SCZ CV 260311 41990.85 0.854892764
EXCELLON RESOURCES INC EXN CN 92854 39942.16 0.813183433
MIRASOL RES LTD COM MRZ CN 52414 37721.95 0.767982122
SILVER BULL RES INC SVBL 275352 30288.72 0.616648807
KOOTENAY SILVER INC KTN CN 70964 27590.75 0.561720768
MINCO SILVER CORP COM MSV CN 34514 14275.55 0.290636279
IMPACT SILVER CORP IPT CN 78054 14205.14 0.2892028
REVETT MNG CO RVM 7000 3232.6 0.065812584
If you want some exposure to some of the Majors then you’ll like Coeur, First Majestic Silver, Pan American Silver, Silver Standard Resources, Silver Wheaton, Hecla, and Fresnillo.
oh, and yes I agree, % wise silver should be the “action” over gold.
Yes. Here is a good article that CFS posted on the Rick Ackerman blog towards the bottom. It highlights the 7% increase in Silver surge versus Gold’s 3% increase. On those kind of rallies, the Silver miners should come back into full favor with the quickness.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-14/gold-gains-3-month-high-silver-surging
Great show and I’m in 100% agreement with Gary’s assessment. Here were my comments on the show yesterday:
On May 12, 2015 at 12:01 pm,
Shad says:
I completely agree Gary, and think when the dollar does start its climb up higher that it will start to pressure the precious metals at that time.
My expectation is still for the washout in PMs over the next few few months along with the commodities, but think we need a little more bullishness before that will start. I am just looking at the short term to see if Gold and in particular the miners have a little more steam left. Also, if/when we get that sentiment washout later this year, I’ll be getting the most bullish when I see people throwing in the towel, and when sentiment gets its most bearish towards PMs.
I am keeping a position in PMs that I started building positions in basket of miners & explorers last year and overall the the basket of stocks and ETFS is profitable or at an break-even presently. Also, I’ve had a great time playing GDXJ to upside and the downside using (JNUG) and (JDST) irregardless of the spot price.
I haven’t lost site of the fact that we haven’t disproved that November was the lows in gold and the miners yet, so we still could be in a stealth bull market and not even realize it. I’m not really married to a bullish position, and if it looks like the washout is coming on hard, then I’ll obviously trim positions or sell most positions and get out of the way of the falling knives.
On May 12, 2015 at 12:08 pm,
Shad says:
If we do see further dollar weakness down to 92 that may give a little life to a further rise in commodities for a short bit. If the dollar gets down there, then I’ll start taking profits in a number of commodity-related plays.
On May 13, 2015 at 9:23 am,
Shad says:
…..and we got our breakout today. Dollar down to $93.52 (closing in on the $92 level).
Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) -NYSEArca
26.65 Up 0.77(2.98%) 12:18PM EDT – Just took out key resistance at $26.57
PureFunds ISE Junior Silver ETF (SILJ) -NYSEArca
8.03 Up 0.28(3.59%) 11:47AM EDT – JR Silver Miners outperforming Jr Gold miners
Right on schedule.
On May 13, 2015 at 9:34 am,
Shad says:
I am not implying this is the major bottom, just the PM price pop that was expected, and that the silver miners would out-perform the gold miners on legs up and on dips down.”
I’ll be watching for the dollar to get down around $92 and the Bond market long term yields will level off and start reversing. That’s when I’ll sell into the strength on the PM pop. (next week?)