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Are you going to sleep well tonight?

Big Al
August 21, 2015

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To quote Jack Nickelson, what as The Joker he said the following.

unnamed

We don’t know if an enema is going to actually happen, but something certainly will much sooner rather than later!

Discussion
174 Comments
    Aug 21, 2015 21:40 PM

    DOW 18351 to DOW 16460 is a 10.30% drop.

    How often do we get 10% drops? Just something to think about.

    Aug 21, 2015 21:47 PM

    Looks like Rick was right that we were headed for an August sell-off.

      Aug 21, 2015 21:00 PM

      He has been waiting for a day just like today for a couple years already. If he did not make a killing today I am going to be seriously disappointed. I am betting he did very well though which would explain his absence. Probably didn’t have time to pick up the phone when Al called!

        Aug 21, 2015 21:41 PM

        Maybe but I don’t think so.

        Another 10% and I will do pretty well also. Don’t want to wish others bad luck but we are due!

    CFS
    Aug 21, 2015 21:54 PM

    Expect a massive attempt by the PPT to boost the market first thing Monday morning, which will fail.

      Aug 21, 2015 21:58 PM

      You mean by buying back all their short positions…….

      Aug 21, 2015 21:04 PM

      I imagine, as Chris suggested, sometime on Sunday someone from the Fed will make some reference to IR hikes possibly being off the table in September.

        Aug 21, 2015 21:10 PM

        No, Bob – more likely China will announce further easing. Not sure we get anything substantive from the Fed before Fischer’s speech in Jackson, WY a week from tomorrow

          Aug 21, 2015 21:19 PM

          I am surprised China will listen to US. Maybe.

            Aug 21, 2015 21:44 PM

            That has nothing to do with listening to the US. They are trying to keep their own house of cards from imploding and getting totally out of their control.

          Aug 21, 2015 21:43 PM

          I suppose the big worry in China now is that their people will look at the US close tonight, panic on Monday morning in Shanghai/Hong Kong and begin dumping at a faster rate.

            Aug 21, 2015 21:46 PM

            Could be, Bob — Private investors are pulling money out of Chinese stocks as fast as the government is dumping it in, At times, faster. If China comes out with a true “shock and awe” – type stimulus, it could arrest this for a while. But it sure appears in China – and now, here – that investors don’t want to buy the dips any longer, and just want out. This “enema” will be fun to watch!

            Aug 21, 2015 21:10 PM

            LOL 🙂

            Aug 21, 2015 21:12 PM

            Good thoughts Mr. T. Crazy times.

          LPG
          Aug 21, 2015 21:52 PM

          Hello Chris,
          For a sec, I thought you were referring to this Jackson 🙂
          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HGhCsznO0S8
          Best to you,
          LPG

            Aug 21, 2015 21:44 PM

            Many thanks for your input here, Chris!

        Aug 21, 2015 21:43 PM

        Really doesn’t make sense to me, Bob.

      Aug 21, 2015 21:42 PM

      We shall see, Professor.

      By the way, why do you think that it will fail?

    Aug 21, 2015 21:02 PM

    Excellent commentaries today and yesterday guys – thanks for sharing your expertise.

      Aug 21, 2015 21:45 PM

      They are a group of very decent and very bright individuals. We are very lucky to call them our friends!

        Aug 21, 2015 21:34 PM

        Yes, Thanks Big Al. They are an excellent panel of deep thinkers and bright individuals.

    Aug 21, 2015 21:05 PM

    It’s interesting. Gary sees a bubble phase coming in the general stock market.
    Someone like Tim ‘Cyclesman’ Wood would say that this 2009-2015 market is a bear market rally in character that just happened to go to new highs, as he said was the 2003-2007 rally. He would say the bubble phase was 1999-2000.
    I can’t make up my mind and figure whether the bubble phase was way back in 1999-2000 and the Fed has pushed the bounces higher by fighting the deflation of the bubble twice already. I like Doc’s point that a lot of people can’t afford to buy stocks as they could in 1999. Too many unemployed and too much debt overhang. Remember the real estate market is not generally at new highs. As Chris says in this piece “People are satiated” (with credit).
    It’s gonna be interesting all right Al.

    I just thought of something: in the 2000-2002 bear market there was the crash in 2000 and then a large decline into March/April 2001. In late August 2001, I saw the market starting to pick up momentum to the downside. (it was 28 August 2001 I think). This continued and on 11 September 2011, I turned on my AOL internet connection fully expecting that a market crash was going to happen that day. I turned it on just before 2 pm UK time which was just before 9 am NY time and the first thing I saw was a little thumbnail picture of a smoking WTC tower. Somehow that changed everything as they say – but even so, when you look back at that chart, a stock crash was coming anyway.
    I feel now a little like I did in March or September 2001 expecting the market to tank in a major way. Although somehow, there seems to be a little too much crash talk already. That might mean talk of the end of the world is premature.

    Even so, I think there will come a point at which sentiment really falls apart and confidence in the money masters falls apart. We never quite got there yet. That means that at some point, downside will be practically unlimited, regardless of sentiment.

    Personally I don’t really lean towards Gary’s view of an upcoming bubble phase because the deflation is taking the desire to speculate out of the markets. In other words, it may be all over and may have actually been set in motion way back in March 2000 when the Nasdaq crashed.

      Aug 21, 2015 21:18 PM

      In the UK house prices are crazy – huge ramping of house prices partly due to Chinese and Russians pumping money into hard UK assets to shelter their cash and partly because Brits, finding themselves priced out by the Chinese and Russians, are also bidding up prices higher and higher.

      As a result few Brits I know have spare cash to go into stocks.

        Aug 21, 2015 21:28 PM

        Also Bob, in the UK the stock market hasn’t been so hot since the 2000 crash. Basically, the FTSE has never been able not in the 2003-2007 or 2009-2015 rallies to hold over the 2000 highs which were about 7000 on the FTSE 100.

        The US markets broke free ages ago from previous highs and broke out in the German DAX a few months ago. The FTSE (and NASDAQ) never broke out. I was waiting to see if they would and confirm a genuine bull market. Gary could be right that there could be a big pullback and then a bubble phase – but somehow I feel that we are at the end of a long consolidation and rescue attempt already and the bubble was way back in 1999-2000.

          Aug 21, 2015 21:46 PM

          Yep, I have made the mistake of having money in the FTSE whereas the US markets have the bigger growth gains.

          I think Gary is right about the bubble yet to come. I am not so sure about the crash, before the bubble, being in Octoberish though. I think it could be happening now. We will just have to wait and see.

            Aug 21, 2015 21:50 PM

            I have until December 1st to wait for my short to work!

            Aug 21, 2015 21:39 PM

            Good discussion Bob UK and Silverbug Dave. Interesting FTSE and Bubble thoughts.

        Aug 21, 2015 21:48 PM

        Very possible Dave. And, I am not being overly simplistic here. The pieces are in place and would do their jobs if the “inviolable hand” were allowed to exist.

        Aug 21, 2015 21:49 PM

        Kind of like what is happening in Vancouver,BC with the Asian demand.

      Aug 21, 2015 21:48 PM

      Tim Wood will be proven correct. After the Dow made a secular top in 1966, it managed to make a nominal higher high in late 1972 but that was still just a bear market rally or, stated another way, a cyclical bull within a secular bear. By late 1974, the Dow had plunged to a new secular low well below the previous low in 1970.

      History repeats and we are now probably in the first half 1973.

    Aug 21, 2015 21:05 PM

    LONG WEEKEND WORRIERS ………will have a lot to think about…….

      Aug 21, 2015 21:52 PM

      Yes, we certainly do Indiana!

      I personally will be waiting anxiously for the Far East markets to open! How about you?

        Aug 22, 2015 22:57 AM

        We are headed in the correct direction………fear not……………….INDY

      Aug 22, 2015 22:09 AM

      Na. sleep tight everyone. We’re on the side of the angels!!

    Aug 21, 2015 21:07 PM

    Yep……I am going to sleep great tonite…thank u very much!! YOU CANNOT print money nd EXPECT prosperity…do you guys honestly think….over 200 countries want to play our games……nope..QE 4 NEXT WEEK??

      Aug 21, 2015 21:15 PM

      ME TOO………………………

        Aug 21, 2015 21:20 PM

        concerning the zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

          Aug 21, 2015 21:53 PM

          Common man, WAKE UP as we need your continued input.

          I am sitting at my computer after watching the Seahawks play the Chargers. Another ho-hum game. Why does anyone watch NFL pre-season?

            Aug 22, 2015 22:53 PM

            Go Chargers Big Al..u love SAN DIEGO!!!

      Aug 21, 2015 21:41 PM

      I rarely get more than 4 hours of sleep, but I feel pretty good about this last week and plan on having a relaxing weekend…..so yeah….I may just go to sleep and go for 6-7 hours. Nice……

        Aug 22, 2015 22:00 AM

        GOOD way to die young………..sleep deprived……………………. OOTB

          Aug 22, 2015 22:08 AM

          Today, I happen to be personally sleep deprived from last night. Here is the best advice I can possible give, “don’t ever get old!”

            Aug 22, 2015 22:52 AM

            Wishful thinking………………think young…………………………….ootb

    CFS
    Aug 21, 2015 21:09 PM

    Keynes was an idealistic socialist cum communist, who was influenced by the rise of the Soviet Union and the post world war One depression. He died too soon to realize how insane his theories were, masked by the onset of WWII in 1939.

    Aug 21, 2015 21:14 PM

    12million VN DONGS…….FOR $935 us………….

    CFS
    Aug 21, 2015 21:15 PM

    Please note: I am not saying there are not extreme times in which Governments should be allowed to deficit spend. I am saying that if a Government overtaxes, it be drag the economy down; and if it deficit spends indefinitely, it will collapse the economy.

    CFS
    Aug 21, 2015 21:19 PM

    This is not an extreme time in which a government should be allowed to overspend, because the whole global economy is overtaxed and the indebtedness appears that it will collapse much of the world economy.
    I would surmise that the first to arise out of the ashes will actually be the emerging market economies.

    Aug 21, 2015 21:20 PM

    Another thing: I heard some people saying there may be a good move down in the stock market, kind of 15-20% ish, some have even said only 10%. I think there are quite a lot of people coming in with that sort of point of view from mainstream sources.

    In Liaquat Ahamed’s ‘Lords of Finance’ book, it has quotes from some of the analysts in 1929 that said the Dow would have a correction of 15-20%. In early 2000 I had a printout of a stocxks round table with Byron Wien and others where someone was saying the Nasdaq would probably have a 20% correction.

    Now we are hearing the same stuff as then.

    This is good for a laugh:

    I just heard on CNBC: “If you are a long term investor you should absolutely be buying this.” David Seaburg. Long-term investors should be buying: Trader
    Fri, 21 Aug ’15 | 9:09 PM GT. It’s Quite illuminating hee hee. One guy in that video says something interesting about the oil market, that Putin or some Saudi prince might be the only guys in the world who know where the bottom is in the oil market!

    Seaburg mentions the lack of breadth in the market but he doesn’t say that this feature was a big indicator in 1929 and 1999!

    Aug 21, 2015 21:25 PM

    ART CASHIN………….”EXPECT A BAD OUTCOME”…………kwn

    Aug 21, 2015 21:28 PM

    Y

    CFS
    Aug 21, 2015 21:40 PM

    Printing money does not produce growth.
    Printing money may appear to give growth on a temporary basis, but this is not real growth.
    All markets, naturally grow, as populations grow , progress/inventions are made, more productive ways of doing things are achieved (such is the history of mankind).
    Natural growth is only impeded by excessive taxation. , or depletion of resources.

    CFS
    Aug 21, 2015 21:48 PM

    For those who watch CNBC:

    Ask yourself this question:
    If a panelist thought there was going to be a stockmarket collapse, do you believe he would tell the public to sell everything?

    So why do you watch CNBC?.

      Aug 21, 2015 21:03 PM

      Well said CFS.

        Aug 22, 2015 22:55 PM

        PROFESSOR- BINGO>>>SPOT ON!!!

      Aug 21, 2015 21:03 PM

      I actually don’t Professor, I just get quick macro quotes from there.

    Aug 21, 2015 21:49 PM

    The price action this week reminds me a lot of ’87. Others who are as old as I am, will remember the market peaked in August of ’87 and after an initial sell-off, traded in a range for a couple of months. The real break down began the week before Black Monday (with the decline on Friday particularly horrendous).

    So will history repeat itself? Perhaps if the Chinese markets cooperate — so everyone will probably be glued to the action in the overseas markets on Sunday night.

    The S & P 500 is quite a bit above the 200 week moving average. There is a lot of air below the current price level. Just to reach the 200 week average, the S & P would have to give back all of 2014 and would find itself at price levels from the middle of 2013.

    Can you give back two years of performance in 2 weeks. Yes, you sometimes can. But whether it happens all at once or over time, I agree with both Gary and Jay that we’ve got much lower numbers in the broad market to look forward to.

    Meantime, the most recent crash in the mining stocks seemed predicated on the belief that $1000 or less was in store for the physical gold market. To the extent that gold reclaims the $1200 area, the miners could have quite a move to the upside (even without the resumption of a bull trend). Rather, just unwinding the sub $1000 thesis.

    Have a good weekend.

      Aug 21, 2015 21:04 PM

      Thanks Eric, I personally agree with you.

    Aug 21, 2015 21:52 PM

    The Great Depression in the US started before the 1929 stock market crash, the crash was a result of The Depression not the other way around. DT

      Aug 21, 2015 21:56 PM

      Forced selling is triggered by margin calls which is what they will be desperate to stop on Monday.

        Aug 23, 2015 23:39 AM

        Agree. The Feral Reserve has to try and pull a ‘Bullard’ again by jawboning about QE4. It’s all they’ve got left, and it did work to stop the October 2014 plunge in its tracks. The ‘market’ was on the verge of margin calls being triggered back then.

    Aug 21, 2015 21:54 PM

    I remember vividly, Eric — still have my August, 1987 newsletter after all these years urging people to get out. The Dow at that point had spiked 50% or so already for the year.
    The big comparison was, in ’87, even many usually liquid and big name stocks even went “no bid.” That’s around the corner now, if selling like this week’s keeps up. The big problem for the bulls right now is who is going to BUY what they want to sell? The entire market is one giant liquidity trap if this keeps up.

      Aug 22, 2015 22:02 AM

      Mr. T. – Good thoughts on the coming liquidity trap.

    CFS
    Aug 21, 2015 21:55 PM

    For those with contacts at Kitco:
    Why has their dollar index having problems. e.g. today it is currently at 94.80, which is correct, but the change is showing 0.00.

      Aug 21, 2015 21:05 PM

      I understand that it had a software problem.

    Aug 21, 2015 21:56 PM

    The irony about commodities may be that the prices may stabilize or stay the same under a declining dollar.

      CFS
      Aug 21, 2015 21:31 PM

      Inflation has not shown up because the US dollar is the reserve currency, and is considered “strong” by many non-americans.
      It is difficult to do a full mathematical analysis, because so many countries have been using announced and hidden QE. But money printing always shows up as price inflation, sooner or later. Price increases are, of course, not uniformly distributed; bubbles are blown. However, crude estimations, based on US, China, Japan money creation alone would indicate at least a 40% rise in prices in the future, world-wide.
      That’s built in.

    Aug 21, 2015 21:59 PM

    @CFS… I remember watching Wall Street Week on the Friday night before the crash in ’87, and Martin Zweig used the crash word. But you are right that few are willing to ever climb out on that limb.

    @Dick Tracy — you are right. Much in the same way that it takes the ‘authorities’ a long time to identify (rear view mirror style) that we were in a recession. In that regard, I think we are in a recession at this very moment, but even if I am right, it could take a long time for the data to demonstrate it.

      LPG
      Aug 21, 2015 21:01 PM

      Eric,
      I think the Wall Street Week you are referring to is actually available on Youtube for those interested. I watched it about 3 months ago… That’s vintage material in my book.
      Best to all, and GL investing/trading.
      LPG

      Aug 21, 2015 21:07 PM

      So very true, Eric!

    Aug 21, 2015 21:02 PM

    Anyone have a thought on why AG and AU went in an opposite direction today?

      Aug 21, 2015 21:15 PM

      On days like this of acute commodity weakness/economic worries, gold is viewed as money/safe haven, whereas silver is more likely to be lumped in with the industrial metals crowd.

        LPG
        Aug 21, 2015 21:03 PM

        +1 to Chris’ take on Ag/Au divergence.
        LPG

          Aug 21, 2015 21:35 PM

          I dont think so….SILVER WILL eventually tag alongwith gold big time…plus it only a INDUSTRIAL metal because the WEST thinks so..ah,the billions of people in the EAST also look upon silver as IND and monetary metal…

        Aug 22, 2015 22:07 AM

        Agreed. In this kind of environment with economic uncertainty, crashing Asian markets, Europe in a funk, slow growth, and commodity weakness, it tends to favor gold more. Silver will eventually play catch up though once things plateau.

      Aug 21, 2015 21:23 PM

      Captain: Bob Hoye has been saying for years that in a monetary crisis, gold gains value relative to silver. The ratio is a sort of barometer. The higher it gets, the worse the financial problem.

        Aug 21, 2015 21:08 PM

        Hadn’t thought of that before. Thanks Robert!

    CFS
    Aug 21, 2015 21:05 PM

    Why is the mainstream news so pro-Islamic?

    e.g. An Islamic terrorist opens fire today on an Amsterdam-Paris train with an AK 47, three wounded.
    Reads in the media as unknown person opens fire.
    Luckily he was overpowered by 2 US unarmed marines and another person.
    Unfortunately the Moroccan terrorist was only roughed up, and did not receive a broken neck. The wimpy French do not any longer have a death penalty for terrorist acts. Ah, Mme La Guillotine!

      Aug 22, 2015 22:12 AM

      It’s like when Jeremy Corbyn (the aspiring leader of our Labour Party) says he disapproves of the settlements he’s anti-Semite. Sheer humbug!

    Aug 21, 2015 21:07 PM

    @ Chris Temple — well said, regarding the liquidity or lack thereof. When the real breakdown occurs, a lot of market darlings are going to find that there is no “depth” in their stock. Just a lot of trap doors.

    @Dai Uy — my opinion for the divergence is that gold was acting like a monetary metal and exhibiting its safe haven status, while silver was acting like an industrial metal and selling off in the same way oil was (fear regarding a global recession).

      Aug 21, 2015 21:15 PM

      Ditto

      Aug 21, 2015 21:23 PM

      Eric, you nailed it when times get real tough and we have been in that situation for a while despite the government statistics, the Asians are paralyzed and they only want gold in a real crisis. DT

    Aug 21, 2015 21:11 PM

    Dai :
    I don’t have your answer, but the gold, silver ratio jumped from 72.96 on Monday the 17th to 75.30 on Tuesday the 18th.

      CFS
      Aug 21, 2015 21:36 PM

      The plunge protection team was created after 1987, so it will be interesting to see if they can impede the crash.
      Communication is much faster now, so they have a serious problem.

        Aug 21, 2015 21:10 PM

        Again a valuable comment, Professor!

    Aug 21, 2015 21:21 PM

    I was just reading up on Black Monday in 1987 – started off in Hong Kong and spread around the world as the sun rose. First went Asia, then Europe and then North America. It became a Black Tuesday in Oz and NZ.

    22.61% fall on the DJIA.

    According to wikipedia:

    ‘By the end of October, stock markets in Hong Kong, Australia, Spain, the United Kingdom, the United States and Canada had fallen 45.5%, 41.8%, 31%, 26.45%, 22.68% and 22.5% respectively. New Zealand’s market was hit especially hard, falling about 60% from its 1987 peak, and taking several years to recover.’

    Aug 21, 2015 21:30 PM

    Who could sleep well with all the excitement going on at least for the participants in the financial markets on both sides of the fence.

      Aug 21, 2015 21:11 PM

      Not sure, Mr. Tracy!

    Aug 21, 2015 21:38 PM

    Fear not………….

    Aug 21, 2015 21:41 PM

    The first metal to be used as currency was silver over 4,000 years ago.
    Wikipedia:
    The silver standard is a monetary system in which the standard economic unit of account is a fixed weight of silver. The silver specie standard was widespread from the fall of the Byzantine Empire until the 19th century. Following the discovery in the 16th century of large deposits of silver at the Cerro Rico in Potosi, Bolivia, an international silver standard came into existence in conjunction with the Spanish pieces of eight. These silver dollar coins played the role of an international trading currency for nearly four hundred years.
    Sounds familiar:

    The use of silver as money was very established at the time of the Ming Dynasty (1368–1644). Paper money was first issued in 1375 by the founder Hongwu Emperor amid the ban of silver as medium of exchange. But due to the increasing depreciation, the paper money became basically worthless and the ban on silver usage was finally lifted in 1436…..

      Aug 21, 2015 21:52 PM

      If you think that is amazing go have a look at when the first sewing needle was believed to have been invented – and why it is considered the greatest human invention.

      Night from the UK.

        Aug 22, 2015 22:09 PM

        I looked Bob. Yeah, that is amazing and I had not heard it before. 17,,000 years ago makes needles pretty much one of the first major advances in technology for us humans. And they were no doubt used as money then even as the North American Indians were trading in stone tools, skins, colored earth pigments and sea shells. Silver coinage looks pretty modern compared to how they were living. Its kind of interesting too that the natives of Canada and the US were not even at the level of smelting basic ores at the time of their discovery nor did they yet have the wheel. They were truly a prehistoric stone age culture working with the most rudimentary of bone, stone, twine and leather tools. So maybe being a Seamstress is really the worlds oldest occupation.

      Aug 21, 2015 21:37 PM

      SILVER is gold on steroids…….eventually…it will go up and outperformGOLDwhen it is said and done

    CFS
    Aug 21, 2015 21:47 PM

    The US stock market has lost about $1.4 Trillion this week.
    A few weeks could add up to serious money! And we don’t have serious money, with all the printing.
    The fiscal operating debt is greater than the annual economy of the US.
    Unfunded commitments are more than 10 times the annual US economy.
    AND the scum in Washington are adding to the commitments, giving handouts to illegals, talking up war with Russia. Why do we allow this? Any of this utter stupidity.

    Our founding fathers warned us about uncontrollable government and debt……

      Aug 21, 2015 21:12 PM

      You should have attended our normal Friday afternoon Discussion Group today!

    Aug 21, 2015 21:11 PM

    I’m an insomniac so I never sleep well and it wears me out.

    Dow down 531. Nasdaq down 171. S&P 500 shed 1.1 trillion in market cap this week.

    CFS
    Aug 21, 2015 21:12 PM
      Aug 22, 2015 22:17 AM

      I don’t know anyone up in our neck of the woods (conservatives or liberals) who support Hillary.

    CFS
    Aug 21, 2015 21:20 PM

    Where’s the Federal Grand Jury?

    Where is the Special Prosecutor?

      Aug 21, 2015 21:13 PM

      Again Professor, read “Unlimited Access”!

    Aug 21, 2015 21:39 PM

    Two snips from the “Fool”;

    “In the past four years the stock market has corrected by 5% or more seven times. On each occasion there was pissing and moaning in the steerage section of this blog. And every time this marked an attractive point to enter the market, which continued to advance. The pullback now is exactly in line with the average of all the others. So, draw your own conclusions. I’m not going to spoon fed it.”

    “But, don’t sweat it. This is not the prelude to a deflating world. Your investments will not disappear. Nothing has changed to derail the US, even as Canada continues to limp along.”

    http://www.greaterfool.ca/2015/08/21/get-a-grip/

      Aug 21, 2015 21:03 PM

      The Dow is down 10%+ from its high and is technically unlike all the other pullbacks. I don’t know what that guy is looking at.
      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p95489531168&a=421507197

        Aug 22, 2015 22:17 AM

        Great point on the breaking below the 50 day moving average, and that trend line.

          Aug 22, 2015 22:18 AM

          correction: 50 week moving average

      Aug 21, 2015 21:30 PM

      I don’t know; he prolly has an app for that – and a juicy ex-politician’s pension, so he doesn’t care.

      I like this from the comments:
      “Gotta admire your optimism boss…You’re gonna go through a lot of lipstick the next few months…

      “Never been in gold but do you figure there’s a time one should pick up a few ounces……just for the halibut?”

        Aug 21, 2015 21:30 PM

        Funny 🙂

        Aug 22, 2015 22:06 AM

        Or he has a bunch of condos he is trying to sell……………..

          Aug 22, 2015 22:08 AM

          If you are referring to me, only one.

            Aug 22, 2015 22:54 AM

            condos are like arces ……you only need one………… 🙂

            Aug 22, 2015 22:14 AM

            We live in a great one that is very convenient. 2200 square feet and on the 16th fairway. We absolutely love it. The price was also right when we purchased it.

            Aug 22, 2015 22:28 AM

            Living on a golf course is as good as living on the ocean and water….jmho

            Aug 22, 2015 22:49 AM

            It is nice Indiana, but it is not the water.

            Aug 22, 2015 22:02 AM

            I know, that is why I like Florida and Charleston SC….

            Aug 22, 2015 22:14 AM

            The water!

            Aug 22, 2015 22:30 AM

            The water…. like ocean……….

            Aug 22, 2015 22:33 AM

            That’s interesting, I assumed that you meant the Okefenokee Swamp.

      Aug 22, 2015 22:18 PM

      I think Garth is going to be wrong this time if he is suggesting this is a garden variety decline. Maybe he missed that part about half the worlds major indices all being in decline together, entering bear markets or outright crashing. But then again his idea of a good year is posting a 7% or 8% annual returns. What the hell? Shad just pulled off a 40% single day gain in under a few hours tops if I am not mistaken.

      And speaking of being on the wrong side of an investment philosophy….Garth has been telling us all about the Great Canadian housing bust (it’s imminent!) since 2006. I am not there in Canada Irwin….but has it yet arrived?

    CFS
    Aug 21, 2015 21:18 PM

    I’m kicking myself for not choosing to buy SQQQ

      Aug 22, 2015 22:00 AM

      I actually had SQQQ and got stopped out right before the free-fall. Sigh.

    CFS
    Aug 21, 2015 21:27 PM
    CFS
    Aug 21, 2015 21:49 PM

    https://youtu.be/TBxToKI0QnQ

    The problem with his theory is that the industrial sector is NOT limited in size, because there are always new inventions and ideas. The drag caused by overtaxation impacts research and development the most, because these have the longest term effects and pay-back. That is one of the problems of government consuming too much.
    Prof. Zeleny’s model, like so many models, is insufficient.
    Just as the Global temperature model is insufficient.

    CFS
    Aug 21, 2015 21:08 PM

    https://youtu.be/wwQfDhohsA4?t=225

    You really need to watch this, folks.

      Aug 21, 2015 21:16 PM

      I kind of realize that from first hand experience.

    Aug 21, 2015 21:51 PM

    Gold priced in oil just might be putting in a double top -for now, anyway.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD:$WTIC&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=11&id=p09397504571&a=401460858&listNum=1

    Aug 21, 2015 21:56 PM
    Aug 21, 2015 21:04 PM

    We’re used to looking at the Dow-gold ratio but I like the perspective provided by turning that around. Here’s a 20 year monthly chart of gold-Dow:
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD:$INDU&p=M&yr=20&mn=11&dy=30&id=p65845226627&a=386301182&listNum=1

    Aug 21, 2015 21:13 PM

    Silver-Dow picked a logical place for not just A low but THE low:
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER%3A%24INDU&p=M&yr=20&mn=11&dy=30&id=p26511457977&a=421516892
    Sorry non subscribers, it’s another monthly chart.

    Aug 21, 2015 21:13 PM

    Keep the market wraps coming…obviously a huge success…Gary your 1550 prediction for this fall helped cause me to go short and make 4 figures today 🙂 I think I’m going to try your service!

      Aug 21, 2015 21:17 PM

      You got a deal, Mr. Proud Canuck!

    Aug 21, 2015 21:17 PM

    Again The Great, we do have freedom of speech in this country.

    Aug 22, 2015 22:17 AM

    Ziomists are not true Jews James. How many times will it take for you to get that? Your issues with BM are more those of you failing to come to terms with YOURSELF.

    Aug 22, 2015 22:14 AM

    Andrew, “Zionists are not true Jews”

    Ok – here’s you’re chance. explain that bizarre statement to me …

    Aug 22, 2015 22:15 AM

    Al, yes we have freedom of speech in this country.

    Unless you are a Christian like Heavy Hitter

    You can’t have it both ways

      Aug 22, 2015 22:04 AM

      I agree with your comment re HH James. However when people become absolutely offensive their posts deserve to get deleted. Al may not have been entirely consistent on that score.

        Aug 22, 2015 22:10 AM

        Am now deleating them all, Reverend.

        This has to stop!

      Aug 22, 2015 22:14 AM

      Not true James about your implication re: Heavy.

      He got a little out of hand as some are now getting. These type of comments will all be removed.

      We have to keep this somewhat sensible and non offensive.

    Aug 22, 2015 22:16 PM

    I think if BM wants to to make comments about Isreal killing babies then people need to respond to that sort of hate speech.

      Aug 22, 2015 22:32 PM

      I already have Mr. Pittsburgh.