Huge movements in the conventional markets to kick off the week
Gary kicks off today with his comments on the markets. With the Dow starting the day down over 1,000 points and markets all around the world continuing to fall are we for a horrible bear market.
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I think Gary already made the call when he was pounding the table 2 weeks ago on buying gold. He also got this crashy pullback right too. Wish I had pulled off the VIX/UVXY trade, wow. End of this year will be interesting.
Gary
OK, now I’m confused……………….again. Gold is not participating in the downdraft today of the US markets or dollar. Is there an obvious explanation that I’m missing? Can’t imagine there are that many gold sellers around. Can you tell from your charts/insights that there is a major battler going on between the paper bears and the physical bulls? Is this even possible? Silver is trading like a metal so the shorts are not even squeezed here.
DGHH, The miners are having a struggle so far today. I expect it’s due to “Mr Margin” making some calls today. Gold may hold on the flight to safety, but PM stocks could be a little weak until the margin calls end.
Actually I kind of thought GDX and GDXJ held up fairly respectably considering the carnage elsewhere. Maybe it just proves that stock is held by strong hands because the sell-off across the board barely moved them and that tells me optimism is high on that front and investors are prepared to wait out this market.
Gold too. It decoupled today by not following silver and the other PM’s down and while it did not benefit from the flight to safety neither did it crack under the onslaught of selling. Again, this may suggest that even under stress there are not going to be many dumping gold into a falling market as we have seen in the past. This was positive from that perspective. Gold was the one single commodity that remained stable and immovable while almost everything around it was in a steep fall.
Good point!
Can you believe I am finally feeling a positive vibe about these metals markets?
Big shock eh!
A number of folks are feeling that way, Listener.
Randgold held up very well in London. I too thought the miners held up well. I am looking on this as an opportunity to buy in for the longterm.
Well bite my tongue. GDX and GDXJ got murdered in the last hour of trading.
Bob UK – I believe Randgold has been a good proxy for GDX. The black line in this chart is GDX and the candles are for Randgold. Also note the importance of the 400 day exponential moving average (red line) for tops and bottoms.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GOLD&p=W&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p02947319592
Kudos again to Gary. How many so called advisers would just say “I was wrong” on the US$. 99% hedge & blame it on “something” else when they are wrong. Also, a huge thank you for allowing non-subscribers into the Saturday SMT conference.
wholly freakin guacamole Gary!!!
With regards to the dollar, with bonds climbing and stocks tanking it should be flying. My guess is some of the trillions in the dollar carry trade are unwinding/bailing. This whole short the Euro/long the dollar and short the yen/long the dollar rose to ridiculous levels. Everyone was on the same side of the boat.
plus smelling QE?
Exactly as I have been saying all along. When the whole crowd is on the same side of the boat you just know they will all get wet. You can’t teach this stuff in school.
No you certainly cannot “teach this stuff in school”.
Last night I said lookout below and sure enough, the Dow fell until finding support at the 200 dMA/233 dEMA.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU&p=W&yr=8&mn=5&dy=0&id=p36155196861&a=421704680
Actually that is pretty interesting how it landed right on the crossover before buyers came in and sent the Dow back up. You figure its in their program, Matthew?
Those moving averages are important and make for a logical place to cover shorts aggressively. The guys who started the rebound will be the same ones who initiate the next pounding.
I would agree with that. One thing worth pointing out though is that this decline, despite its size, is still contained within the rising trend channel where the DOW is concerned so it is not a certainty that much more of a fall is ahead. I won’t make that bet today anyway. Take a look at the monthly to see what I mean. We may have already seen the worst of the sell-off.
The weekly chart is not useful in making this judgement. Only the long charts make the insight obvious.
Yes, I think there is more downside but markets breath; so shorts can be covered and redeployed repeatedly within a downtrend.
Possibly for the time being. But, I am pretty convinced that we have not seen the end of this yet!
Correction: should be 200 wMA/233 wEMA. “W” for week.
IMPACT Silver Announces Second Quarter 2015 Financial and Production Results
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA–(Marketwired – Aug. 24, 2015)
2 of my recent short positions on oil producers closed this am at a sharp profit . I sill have 2 more short positions that look good as of now. quality stocks are on sale , but dont buy yet . wait till china market stops falling , probably this week . Then look to buy quality health care companys and some lesser know quality stocks . best of health and wealth to you all . S
You playing DWTI?
Jason, for the first time in months I took out first tier position in UWTI. If Oil gets down to $35, then I’m going in heavy with a tier 2 position in UWTI to average down.
Good luck mate!
OK – based on the overwhelming thoughts from energy pundits about Oil possibly getting down to $32-$33 as bottom, then I stand corrected and there is a school of thought that thinks it’s heading that direction. As a result, if there is a pop in Oil off the $38 support in the next few days, then I’ll cash out, and wait for a further drop. If Oil doesn’t ever pop and just keeps heading down then I’ll average in around $33 as a second tier. I think Oil may pop back up to $40+ before heading down that low. It’s at $38.06 in after hours trading, so we’ll see how it goes tomorrow.
Probably not a bad idea, Shad.
So far crude oil is up to $38.82 in after markets. If this continues tomorrow we could see a push towards $40. That will be an escape hatch from my UWTI position, and then I’ll try to be more patient and wait for the lows in Oil……but we’re getting close.
I am kind of hoping today it begins building a technical base before running higher.
I like the idea of Oil building a technical base around $38-$39 and then moving higher gradually, and it is in oversold territory here. Unfortunately, it is looking more realistic that Oil will get a minimal bounce on Tues maybe Wed, and then head even lower to the mid to low $30s before finding bottom.
My thought is that the the $38 level did just hold as support, and oil is currently priced at $39.05 in overseas trading, so it may be bouncing to $40+, before turning back down lower. I was thinking calls for $32-$33 sounded a bit extreme and really thought the $38 area would be support (and maybe $35). However, there were so many energy pundits that came out of the woodwork today expecting $32-$33 oil, that is has me re-evaluating my thesis of where Oil should bottom. This is commodity to watch because it’s getting darn close to a bottom.
I don’t know if you’ll be able to see this chart correctly or not, but it does look like a low is coming soon.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24WTIC&p=M&yr=20&mn=10&dy=0&id=p97076214727&a=375436964
What are your thoughts on that $33.55 trough from 2009 as a potential bottom?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24WTIC&p=D&st=2001-01-01&en=(today)&id=p51446861804
Looks like a good possibility to me.
Unprecedented times? Of course!
DWTI?
(DWTI) is the ETF that is 3xshort Oil. It has been the clear trade the last few months as Oil fell further. This was predicted, but Oil is look like it’s downside is limited from here, so I’m not shorting it any more personally.
I believe Oil is finally getting close to bottoming, and I’ve been waiting for $38-$40 range as a potential turning point, so I took out a position in (UWTI), 3xLong Oil today at the levels targeted. As mentioned above, if Oil drops to $35, then I’m going in very heavy in UWTI as a second tier. If oil got down to $32-$33 (which is unlikely) then I’d take out a final 3rd tier position and average down for the second time. I’ll be incredibly surprised if Oil doesn’t bottom by $35, but these are surprising times….
Shad, I am kicking myself for not holding DWTI (I bought at $59 and sold out around $58 earlier this year!). I just scooped up 4000 shares of UWTI at $.78 today. Not certain the bottom is in with oil yet but it sure feels like it is close! Google Finance’s weekly RSI registered a 0 reading today on USO. Weekly at 0! That’s just nuts!
Yep. I’m in the same boat. I had DWTI in June and July for short periods of time but didn’t hang onto it. Today Oil finally hit the zone I’ve been looking for as a bottoming zone, and great deal of the sell-off was due to the Russian Ruble issues.
We may be a little early to the party, but the downside is more limited than the upside at this point, and if Oil drops further then I’m willing to average down 2 more times.
Reverse that last statement. The Russian ruble issue was due to the falling oil price.
_________________________________________________________________________
Oil Price Plunge Pushes Ruble to Seven-Month Lows
Economy likely to fall deeper into recession
http://www.wsj.com/articles/russian-ruble-sinks-to-seven-month-lows-1440411048
Russian Ruble Collapses to 7-Month Low on Weak Oil Prices
MOSCOW — Aug 24, 2015
Apparently the culprit with Oil is China….
____________________________________________
Crude prices sink on China slowdown concerns
38 Mins Ago
Reuters
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/23/us-crude-dips-to-around-40-on-demand-concerns-supply-glut.html
Thanks Shad!
The talking heads on CNBC think $32 is in the cards. It’s possible, but dang that’s low.
If we get a bounce from here then I may take profits and wait for a further pullback instead of averaging down. We’ll see…
Wiseguy – isn’t it a bit early for UWTI as isn’t there daily decay with UWTI?
Here is a segment from an interesting article that sees the new range as $32-$3 in oil. I guess I’m wrong and maybe Oil has further to fall. They did note the support at $38 though. We’ll see if it bounces from $38, but their title is already out of date…..
_____________________________________________________________
Crude Oil Prices Hit an Intraday Low $39.86 per Barrel
By Gordon Kristopher • Aug 24, 2015
“Bottom fishing, short covering, and lower crude oil prices could support crude oil prices. The nearest resistance for crude oil prices is seen at $50 per barrel. Prices hit this level in August 2015. In contrast, weak demand cues and record supplies could drag crude oil prices lower. The nearest support for crude oil prices is seen at $38 per barrel. Prices tested this level in February 2009.
Crude oil price charts suggest that crude oil prices could average between $33 per barrel and $43 per barrel in the near term. The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) estimates that crude oil prices could average around $49 per barrel in 2015 and $54 per barrel in 2016. Citigroup forecast that crude oil prices could hit $32 per barrel in the near term.”
http://marketrealist.com/2015/08/crude-oil-prices-hit-intraday-low-39-86-per-barrel/
that should have said the new range as $32-$43. not $3. 😉
Bob UK, you are probably right. Oil could still keep dropping here.
Yes, it may be a bit early still and things have slid further this afternoon in Oil. If it bounces up from here this week, then I may sell out and wait to see if the pundits are correct about $32-$33 oil being the target. We are right under $38 at $37.97, so I want to see if there is a bounce from here first.
I believe Oil may pop back up to $40+ before heading down as low as $32-$33, so let’s see if $38 will hold in overnight and pre-market trading.
So far this evening Oil has bounced off the $38 zone (yes I know it dipped briefly below it to $37.94, but close enough).
Crude Oil $38.82 +0.58
I got out of my UWTI trade at $.82 this morning, and decided to move to the side until we confirm the lows in Oil. As mentioned above that long term support at $33.55 may come into play. I’ll probably go back into UWTI much heavier next time once Oil gets below $35 or indicates it definitely has bottomed for the long haul.
Really, Shad? I got out of UWTI at $ .82 too, LOL. I saw it falling and took the profits. I don’t trust whatever strength oil did have even though it’s back up to 82 cents now.
I think Gary has nailed it!!!!
I have a feeling Rick will disagree with Gary that the dollar has topped.
We will see later today.
BIG AL! I made 26% shorting the S&P this morning and I TOOK my profits! SPXS!!!
Congratulations Jason.
I was a bit luckier in my short.
Well you got that OLDer wiser thing working to your advantage Al. lol I’m not there yet.
In this particular case, Jason, I also add the word, luckier.
Congratulations Al.
Nice one Big Al!
Great work Jason.
I wrote this yesterday:
………..I am not a chartist or cycles person, although I do try to listen to everyone and not criticize other techniques of prognostication. I am a fundamentalist, first and foremost, although I do take into consideration charts and cycles for timing.
With the RSI at 33 for $USD it could reasonably be claimed that the dollar is becoming close to oversold and thus should bounce soon and increase in value.
The main advantage the dollar has is that it is the reserve currency and for those people living in countries with weak currencies it is often considered a safe haven.
I would like to discuss, however, a fundamental reason why I expect the US dollar to drop.
What makes most of the world work is the use of energy. For the Western world that essentially means oil.
Since the price of oil has declined from over $100 dollars a barrel to about $40 a barrel, this means most importing countries do not need to hold as many dollars for oil trade. i.e. There will be a reduced demand for dollars for the biggest item in world trade.
It is for this reason; without consideration of manipulation, without conspiracy theories, that I believe we will see weakness in the US dollar index. ………..
Now I wish to comment further.
From a fundamentalist point of view, there are increasing reasons for the dollar to actually climb after a few days.
First the oil price is close to bottoming, so the reason for the dollar drop given above is ending.
Despite the worldwide phenomenon of market collapses, we are about to come into a time when people are looking for a safe haven.
because of the depth of the bond market, compared to precious metals, I believe that will be one of the primary choices of money managers around the world for a safe haven, which will give strength to the US dollar.
I said in this forum, over a year ago, I believe that if something can’t happen, it won’t happen. This was in regard to Federal Reserve interest rates. I do not anticipate any significant move upward in interest by the Fed. I do expect a widening interest rate spread and a significant upward move in the interest rates associated with corporate bonds; EVEN if we have a new round of QE.
Big Al, I asked permission to discuss the hazards of real estate as a safe haven. May I discuss this?
Of course. I would like to hear your thoughts on real estate.
yes
Gold is not going to be $5000 three years from now.
HUI is not going to 200.
Gary’s targets are way too high in my opinion.
Actually, some time ago I think Gary’s HUI target was 1000 (not 200). Am I correct?
PF:
Events and circumstances change. With that, opinions change. Fact is nobody has a chrystal ball, but Gary is offering his best analysis at this point in time and provides the reasoning behind his thoughts. You are free to dis-regard if you choose. Best of luck to you in your decision making.
Why do you say gold will be $200 three years from now, PF?
I will posit the possibility that silver will go up to be higher 3 years from now.
Here is my reason.
Silver is both an industrial metal and a precious metal.
It is predominantly mined as a biproduct of copper , zinc and gold mining.
If copper and zinc mining is reduced by a recession, then the supply of silver will be reduced. However, the needs for silver in industry have been steadily increasing over the last few decades, so even a recessionary slow-down may not reduce industrial needs. With demand steady or increased and with supply reduced, price will go up.
I didn’t say that. Read the comment more carefully, please.
gary I think that you are gonna be proofed wrong regarding the dollar.Although the dx has broken the support it doesn’t mean that it has changed trend.Instead of a triangle it is forming a zig-zag.Regarding gold it is very near the 1180 strong support which has turned resistance.dx and gold are still moving in sync to each other.Nothing changed imo.Eur/usd are heading to parity and below and gold to 820 (200ma).
Don,
People have been telling me I’m wrong all year. So far it hasn’t worked out so well for them. 🙂
Gary, previously you called for the Dollar Index to retreat to the 38% fibonacci at 92.183 before heading to 120. It hasn’t even made it there yet! Why the change in your Dollar outlook?
Wise,
Because the cycle patterns have changed. We now have a fialed intermediate cycle in progress. That should not have happened if the dollar was going to go to 110 or 120.
Gary I am a technical guy and believe me I am not seeing any change in trend at all in dx.usd is building momentum right now for another leg up.Just a healthy correction to approx 89.5 i.e. 50% retracement of the leg up from 8th may 2014.Enough to fill the gap.
I agree.
Well Gary maybe this call was the right one and we should follow Leonardo Fib. …
On August 20, 2015 at 5:33 pm,
gabriel says:
The Screwtape Files called a bottom for gold on July 9th 2015 of U$1,081/oz.
Jason Zweig got a mentioncalling sell on gold and calling it a pet rock at…yes you guessed it…the very bottom $1,080/oz day.
http://screwtapefiles.blogspot.ca/2015/07/1081-gold-bottom.html
“I’m not expecting the 61.8% fib level to be hit.
Time is running out for buyers in my opinion, and the next leg of the secular bull is likely to be the most explosive and volatile we’ve seen since the late 1970s, so hang on tight. “
Nasdaq almost green. Too funny. CBs in total control of markets.
Yet, again Spanky!
Gary,
You are spot on regarding the dollar and the stock exchange. You are ..way… Wrong regarding gold! It is not even remotely close to a bottom! The emerging markets and commodities should bottom this week.
Gold is going down!
On this I have to agree with Gary, Chartster
Al,
Buy metals and miners at your own risk. Gary is usually spot on. And no one is better calling the conventional markets than he is. I tell my friends about him all the time. Regarding the metals, he’s wrong today. I would be selling you out if I didn’t voice the opinion.
Chartster, you’ve been calling for this huge plunge to happen imminently for over a year. I’d just like to know if there is anything that will make you decide that you’ve got it wrong.
Do you have an upside breakout price you are watching?
Matthew,
I did think the bottom was going to happen last November, until it stopped at 1130..
I’ve been thinking the bottom would happen this fall, and still do. It’s just not now.
You know how low I think it’s going.. At any rate, the bear ends with a wash. We haven’t seen the washout, yet.
Matthew,
I’d get freaked if gold hit 1308 before the wash. I’m still expecting 1225 shortly, but maybe it just heads down from here. This gold market is a hard pill to swallow lately. We all reserve the right, to be wrong..
Why didn’t gold suffer such a wash in 1999?
This is the new narrative, Matthew.
Why is the CRB close to the same value of when we went off of the gold standard?
Why is gold no longer listed as a commodity?
My question is, why are you certain there will be a wash this time when there wasn’t one at the end of the secular bear in 1999?
Gold is a commodity. Money is gold.
To sum it up, bookoo phyz is going to hit the markets. After that happens, load the truck!
Merci 😉
Thanks Chartster.
See my comment to don above.
You’ve been making great calls all year , man. I just know that gold is going down, and I know why. Just because the dollar is heading south, does not mean gold is going up.
I mean no disrespect, I just disagree.
Well if everything turns green, the FED will have to hike rate in September …
What to do ?
Gold just topped along with the yen today. New lows coming as the Fed raises rates in September. US equities the only place to be.
Dow has to be putting in one of the biggest tails in history on the daily candle chart. A new era in the bull about to begin.
Starting right now, Spanky?
Yes, sir. If anything, it is going to take a long long time to chew through today’s tail. The market could bounce and trend sideways to down for a year or more, easily. But there is no way the CBs will just give up so easily. This is the endgame, and they will fight tooth and nail before letting things just roll over.
The yen putting in a massive topping candle today. Again, even if it is headed higher it will consolidate today’s ridiculous move for a long time, which means tail winds for US equities.
I think that you are kind of right about the “end game”
The “tail” is about 6.4% so far. There was an almost 9% tail (shadow) on October 10, 2008 and an 8% tail on November 21, 2008. The final low was about 23.5% lower than that October 10th close.
Sell the rally (not advice -it’s up to you to decide when).
What you are saying then is this tail qualifies to make a continuation of the declines a fairly good probability? Its my opinion as well. I thought that spike was pretty notable although I did not check back on the record from the past for comparison.
I like Gary he has the guts to change his mind and I applaud him for that.
I have yet to note one instance where Doc has been wrong. He was saying the dollar is going down as most of the world said the pennant formation was perfect.
AL, you have the A team on your show. Congratulations.
We certainly do Silverbug Dave.
Thank you, by the way!
I agree about Gary changing his mind, that’s the professional, objective thing to do when the evidence says you should.
I have also consistently thought the dollar’s top was in place. In fact, on the very morning of the day it topped, I said:
On March 13, 2015 at 8:52 am,
Matthew says:
The dollar is massively overbought even on the monthly chart. Why no talk about selling into strength? Where are the contrarians? The dollar can (and I believe, will) retrace the entire move going back to July.
You lock in your dollar gains by buying things that are now cheap.
The day before the huge plunge in the dollar, I said:
On March 17, 2015 at 8:08 am,
Matthew says:
I agree but think that the dollar is about to take a break no matter what Yellen says.
Staying long UUP puts…
Exactly my sentiment too. This is one thing we have always agreed on Matthew and it turns out we were absolutely correct. Great to hear Gary finally just call it the way he sees it. The facts are pretty hard to argue with now.
I doubt we hear a peep out of the buck20 crowd.
Certainly not right now, Chartster!
Sure it is Matthew. What do you think about those guys who refuse to do that?
I did say I WAS LONG…………………………….. OOTB……..J. THE LONG…..
One day out of a 1200 ain’t bad……………..lol
Hey Franky! I am getting my tail handed to me today on Russia! RUSL
THIS IS FRANK………….NO Y………….lol……….
Russell with the bear……….the CLAW
I considered re-opening my spreadbetting account. Then I thought well the Dow will probably open 1000 points down this morning and then pop up. Basically you could go short then get a short bid filled right at the bottom and watch yourself get stopped out as it rises. Or maybe the Fed could do something overnight or at the weekend and gap the market up against any overnight short position. So I thought, why bother?
It’s then that you realize that the whole of the financial markets are just a complete farce and a casino.
I wonder, if the realization dawns on people that this is the case will spell the end of all this madness.
That would mean a return to gold and a ban on most derivative products would be necessary to restore any form of honesty in the system and a ban on most derivative products.
I repeated myself but maybe that is good – a ban on most derivative products.
This WE, I noted M.A matrix has a huge trading cycle move for gold on the week of Oct. 26th and also a decent panic cycle on the week of Sept 28th, which is commensurate with heightened volatility.
We shall see.
GL to all investing/trading.
LPG
I GUESS THE PLUNGE PROTECTION TEAM is not through yet.
HA,…..good one……………….OOTB
This is a CRASH UP………….per Cath. Austin Fitts…..
I think you have your lids and floors mixed up again.
“So I think we’re talking about an extraordinary change. We currently have an enormous percentage of both the corporate and individual economies in North America and in Europe dependent on government subsidies. How they’re going to transition as subsidies go away will have a big swing on how much of a debt load the equity markets are going to have to carry. We can either write down the debt or crash up the equity market and I think everybody’s preference, from investors to government policy makers to G-7 leadership, is to have a crash-up. So I think the chances of a crash-up are much better. That said, right now the tensions geopolitically are enormous and in a situation that is this fluid, anything can happen.”
See more at: http://www.thedailybell.com/exclusive-interviews/34665/Anthony-Wile-Catherine-Austin-Fitts-on-Moral-Investing-and-the-Coming-Equity-Crash-Up/#sthash.t1lQeBYo.dpuf
Miners getting absolutely destroyed. I got out of silver for a small loss, this does not bode well. Cashed in some nice profits on biotech puts this morning at least.
Congratulations, Dan.
Those taking comfort in gold today can forget about it.
SILVER IS GETTING CRUSHED AND NOT COMFIRMING GOLD.
The worst for stocks could be in.
Silver, the worst investment out there, will continue to get slaughtered.
For long term investors take a good look at a long term chart, like the 10 year.
Golds move was nothing but a blip.
This was not the big big move Gary was pounding the table about.
Once again he was wrong
Silver is never expected to hold up as well as gold on days like this. Is James (the lesser) your identical twin? 🙂 lol
bingo.
TRUE GOLD MINING REPORTS Q2 2015 FINANCIAL & OPERATING RESULTS
AUGUST 24, 2015
bingo bongo…….
Pittsburgh Phil is actually HeavyHitter. The writing style is a dead giveaway. Double spacing, brash irrational assertions, confrontational prose and an individual attack by name. I could pick him out from a mile off.
Hey Heavy!….hows the Rapture, man?
I have to disagree. I see James.
Al could check his IP address.
YUUUUUUUUUUUP, that’s James alright!
Now that you mention it….you could be right. There is no guilt or accusing fingers being pointed in that post that Heavy used to be so good at leaving.
Gold/silver ratio out at 78-79 is a sign of severe financial stress in the system. Above 80 really bad.
It closed near its low for the day:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD%3A%24SILVER&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p59872114785&a=408585455
Why would you say that around $1070 up to about $1160 is wrong?
Matthew are you posting this chart to say GDXJ will hit lower support around mid 18s and reverse??? What is your point here? Thanks.
Yes, and to show that the recent low is also trend support. We could see a retest of the low without even getting an MACD sell signal.
Of course, if gold doesn’t hold up, we could easily see new lows. Here’s another showing the next very minor support areas.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p39006829807&a=421817442
Anybody flip JDST today? I wanted to buy at $8.75 with a sell stop at $10.75. Didn’t feel like dealing with good faith transfers and unsettled funds for a $100 scalp.
Martin Armstrong rules Al Korelin and the gold trads drool. I can’t believe anyone is listening to you gold trads. Gold is so bullish that the miners had such a big day, NOT. See you at 850.00 on Nov 12 2015. Oh and by the way buy the dip in the $DOLLAR and the S$P. Keep listening to the gold trads and go broke.
Haven’t gone broke yet, Greg. Sorry!
What’s a trad, Garg?
Ha….what’s a Garg?
Yeah…. what the hell is a Garg? or a trad? Have we entered a parallel universe?
😉
What you’re saying is nonsense, btw. When everything falls BUT gold, that means gold went UP. Just because it didn’t go up as much as YOU think it should have in terms of U.S. dollars doesn’t mean that it didn’t go up substantially versus most REAL assets.
Gold blasted 60% higher in ONE fricken month in oil value and 23% in DOW value at the same time. It even jumped 14% versus the USDX.
Gold is now well out of its upper Bollinger band and so a pullback would make perfect sense here. But the fact remains, it did its job.
Don’t you get tired of kneeling before Martin?
When mid Nov, rolls around we will see who is kneeling.
It doesn’t matter what happens, it won’t be me. That’s a fact.
Gold is only up 3 to 5 times versus most commodities since the summer of 2008 (the eve of the meltdown and sheeple recognition that things aren’t what they seem) and 400% vs oil, arguably the most important commodity, yet buffoons and frauds would like you to believe that gold is no safe haven.
Some people’s kids… what can you do?
Did anyone go short gold yesterday? or was everyone long?
Just thinkin, when everyone sees the same thing the market goes the other way.
Bird not being around the drop didn’t get called, he was good at seeing those coming.
I guess the blogoshere will be shouting “attack” again.
I said a pullback was likely but that was hardly an impressive call. Just look at the indicators and price action. See that last candle and how it closed below the open and back inside the upper Bollinger band. Also note that the target of that halfway pattern had been reached and finally, look at the rest of the indicators and how overbought, or close, they’d become.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p00684348230
Priced in oil, gold is extremely overbought and at a three decade high. At least for the short term, oil is far more appealing and less risky (that does not mean that I’m selling any gold to buy oil but you can be sure that someone is).
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD%3A%24WTIC&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p98080486921
Would it not make more sense to say that oil is oversold? It has been the one moving hard this last while, not gold. The funny thing is I am a little optimistic gold right now and see the potential for a move up. Guess I am alone again.
To say that oil is oversold versus gold is exactly the same as saying gold is overbought versus oil. Short term in particular, I would favor oil much more than gold when comparing one versus the other. I am bullish both versus dollars longer term but oil appears to have more potential in the short term.
Remember that dollars are netted out of the picture in the chart I put up.
Very enjoyable interview. Of course, Gary is saying what I want to hear……but that doesn’t make it wrong. He could be making the call of the century and everyone should take heed. We’re in unprecedented times.