Is this market collapsing?
We chat with Doc about the question of is this market collapsing? He continues to think we will have to wait until early next year to truly experience the true fall.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
I would like to discuss this with you sometime over the telephone. (alkorelin@gmail.com)
Busy trading today but will email my phone number.
SPOT ON jon!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
been saying that for years, the boogie man does not exist! BIG PLAYERS WILL MOVE MARKETS AT WILL always have always will
exactly, it’s a convenient story…I lost because the PPT intervened. Same thing with GATA – when gold goes up it’s buyers, when gold goes down it’s “THEM” capping it. no way the gov’t has managed to trade the markets for 30 years without a single leak or footprint.
You don’t even grasp why the PPT was created, jon.
It does NOT have a mandate to ensure up markets.
It has a mandate to stop chaos or total market shutdown.
It only intervenes when other techniques fail.
I was on the floor trading through 87 and was part of the trading group that submitted testimony that later helped form the PPT. THEY DO NOT TRADE, THEY DO NOT INTERVENE, THEY ARE A POLITICAL BODY THAT MAKES RECOMMENDATIONS AND HAS NO DAY-TO-DAY ACTIVITY AT ALL. Sheesh.
“POLITICAL BODY” THAT RECOMMENDS……….
THAT IN ITSELF IS NOT A ….FREE MARKET……….
GIVE ME A BREAK……………..
You are misinformed, Jon.
The PPT does not intervene on any regular basis, but they do intervene at times.
Since a Rule 48 was, in fact, declared today, I was expecting intervention. I have not observed any intervention as yet.
Gee, 30 years on the floor and in the pits as a trader, knowing so many contacts on trading desks, and I’m misinformed. LOL, okay, thank you.
Last week, Al mentioned that he would like comments to be “substantiated” (I think this is the exact word he used).
I suspect that if I k-i-n-d-l-y ask people who pretend they can see/observe the PPT intervening/in action to substantiate their observation, we might be in for some “interesting” comments…
Just my 2cts.
GL to all investing/trading.
Why does any intervention need rule 48, all they need is a FUTURES account (the futures ALWAYS move before the cash so that is where invention would happen, not on NYSE listed stocks).
Bingo! Thank you Jon. I wish more people appreciated that point of yours.
Franky, if you read this, I miss you.
I preferred some of your “wackos” Youtube links compared to this empty PPT bla-bla-bla.
My 2cts.
LPG
Maybe you just need a hug, big guy. ๐ ๐
+++2
Matthew, next time, would you be my Valentines ???
๐ ๐ ๐
Hope all’s well.
LPG
Funny thread.
PS. – I agree LPG, the continuing Plunge Protection Team debate isn’t going anywhere.
Hello Shad,
Do you agree w. me just because you’d like to be my Valentines instead of Matthew ????
๐
Hope all’s well.
Best as always,
LPG
Ha! No, I’ve already got a Valentine but thanks LPG.
I just think we’ve strayed from the normal market analysis and gotten way off into the conspiracy camp with the constant blaming of every move in the general markets, gold, oil, and currencies on the PPT or Fed. They don’t have that kind of power. I have no doubt that larger banks (even foreign banks) and institutional investors may act as buyers on behalf of the Fed at times, but even still, this is a huge market with millions of small to large players oscillating in a dynamic environment, and no organization can control it all.
Personally, I’d rather get back to good ole’ market analysis and technical analysis and share trading ideas that will make us all some money, and quit telling ghost stories about the boogeyman.
Have a rest of the week sir!
It is good to be different and follow the crowd……………………………CCF
Jon, I’m just a stupid old man, who reads a lot………
This is an excerpt from a Republication Party document, I believe, written shortly after the last crisis (2011):
JON, Please read the section between the *******
markings down below.
……
THE ISSUE IS LONG-RANGE U.S. SOVEREIGN SOLVENCY
The battle over the long-range sovereign solvency of the United Stated has resumed, following the inability of those controlling the U.S. government to address the issue meaningfully during the collapsed negotiations seen in the July-August 2011 period. The unfolding catastrophe in the control and containment of mortally-unbalanced federal fiscal conditions should intensify in the next week or two, as the debt-ceiling crisis hits the threshold of U.S. Treasury forbearance.
What is at risk here is not just the usual, extremely-virulent political bickering that increasingly has dominated the headline communications between competing philosophies within the political system, but rather the financial survival of the United States as we know it.
As a Symptom of a Failing Political System, a Government Shutdown Should Be Savaging the Markets and U.S. Dollar. Thank goodness for the Presidentโs Working Group on Financial Markets! Post-shutdown selling of stocks and the U.S. dollar and buying of gold was averted, despite early selling of stocks and the dollar, as the risks of a shutdown moved to a virtual certainty.
***********************
Created under President Ronald Reagan in the wake of the 1987 stock-market crash, the Plunge Protection Team (PPT), as some call it, was intended as a vehicle of market stability, a group assigned the responsibility of maintaining orderly financial markets. Headed by the U.S. Treasury Secretary and the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, the PPT has intervened largely to prop the stock market, as seen with the S&P downgrade in 2011 of U.S. Treasury securities. Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan also indicated PPT actions had been taken to buy the U.S. dollar and to sell gold and oil during Iraqi crises.
What happened overnight with the shutdown was a circumstance that had to be watched by the PPT. Supportive actions for stocks and the U.S. dollar, and continued selling of gold were extremely likely. Market fundamentals eventually will prevail.
**********************
Developing circumstances here will be addressed as necessary.
…….
You should get off the floor sometime soon.
The Presidents Working Group, which was created to stabilize markets after the 1987 crash IS THE BIG BANKS! . They are the PPT and they are also the owners of the Fed. In short they are the owners of our country! And yes, they do make money on both sides of the market. But to imply that collectively these big banks are omniscient and all powerful as well such that they can always control all market outcomes would be incorrect. All you need to do is revisit the outcome of another monetary dictatorship, namely the former Soviet Union to see what will ultimately lie ahead for the U.S. as well. To say that the PPT is always active would be a mistake, except that its major players, the major financial institutions in the money centers are in fact ALWAYS a major part of all our financial markets. So its very difficult to know when they are manipulating the markets, though Dr.Robert McHugh has some measure that indicate when the PPT is more active. The PPT are the people who are in and out of our government (AKA Government Sachs) and they are the ones that made sure the tax payers footed the bill for the 2008-09 market meltdown resulting from their criminal behavior. If you think the PPT is not there to keep the existing system in place, no matter what it takes, then you are ignoring the stated purpose of the President’s Working Group.
+1 Jay
How otherwise rational people can continue to delude themselves is beyond me, but far from unusual!
You know Al, if you really do believe the PPT buys and manipulates the markets, why would you EVER take a short side bet, because you have no edge on the trade and are counting on pure luck to make any money.
Simply Jon, because I think that they can loose control. My short was based on the very short term even though my broker thought I was nuts not to leave it in play. I will take $500 to $2700 anytime.
But that’s the issue and where the logic breaks down. If it’s the PPT, they almost ALWAYS win as the markets have gone higher for 6 years, therefore they must have massive profits from buying the dip. Add to that the leverage that can be used when you don’t care if you are wrong means that they are probably geared 100-200-300x their capital. Bottom line, for the whole PPT theory to work, it only follows that they have unlimited fire power, never loose, report/disclose to no one, pay no taxes and are completely hidden, so they can NEVER loose control. It’s either a fully rigged market (PPT/Fed) ir they do nothing, its binary. Gold should have NEVER gotten to 1900 if they can cap it at 1100, crude should have NEVER gotten to 120 if they can cap it at will wherever they want.
It is not logical to conclude that the market would never drop (or that gold would not have reached 1900) if the PPT were intervening.
“Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan also indicated PPT actions had been taken to buy the U.S. dollar and to sell gold and oil during Iraqi crises.”
Greenspan was on the PPT. He should know.
Jon, what will satisfy you as proof of PPT action?
At least in the past.
They clearly did not act today.
Al:
It’s wonderful to believe in a PPT and gold manipulation. That way when a trade goes sour, we can always blame the PPT.
But when a guy who is there everyday and has been for 30 years, why don’t we drop the blinders and admit, yea, maybe the facts indicate there is no action from a PPT and nobody “suppressed” gold from $252 to $1923?
People: When you need to believe in the tooth fairy or the PPT or the CARTEL, have a drink or go hug your dog.
What if there is a Tooth Fairy Cartel with deep pockets (hey they got plenty of money to buy kids teeth don’t they), and they are the one’s secretly supporting the markets on behalf of the Plunge Protection Team?
If anyone even considered that idea then you need 3 drinks and to hug your dog.
BOB M…………..are you a HOARDER OR SPECULATOR?
A speculoarder?
funny………..lol………good one………….
I would rather hold an ounce of gold than a Tbill. But I was a buyer at $252 and $4 silver so I guess I am a hoarder. There will come a time to sell but it’s not next week.
Or next month for that matter, Robert.
Thanks BOB for the reply…one hoarder to another…….cheers…………
Bob…don’t need to believe in any of that to have a drink and hug my dog…do it everyday..in fact it’s scotch time now and my dog is waiting…Cheers and regards….
does the dog , lick the bottle , before or after you hug him
cheers gator……good to see you are still around……………..jthelong
Some insiders are buying. Unfortunately that cannot be monitored in real time.
But I did notice buying in Baytex Energy, for example, and a few mining stocks, which I know nothing about, but will slowly look at them.
If it cannot be monitored in real time (and it can’t) how do you ‘notice’ insider buying, curious to know please?
Jon, I have no contacts on the floor of any exchange. A few banking friends in London is the extent of my contacts.
So how do you think I can post actions of Soros, Icahn, etc in the market?
When an entity owns more than 10% of a company they have to file details of share transactions, which are public, and monitorable, but not in real time.
Are these small cap stocks?
I think the conventional markets will go down this week… perhaps spurred on by a biggish drop in China this week tonight and tomorrow… and then, once Labour Day has come and gone in the US… it will be onwards and upwards in the conventionals for a month or two…
Perhaps, over the Labour Day weekend, it will be a convenient time for someone from the Fed to say no IR rise this year…
Just trying to think like one of the lizard people.
Good reptilian logic Bob UK.
Specific stocks that might interest this forum that show insider buying activity are:
Alamos gold. Buying consistent and often, but not heavy.
Mandalay. One-off purchase of almost a million shares,
Sabina 300K shares bought
Ami.to 300K bought
Insider buying in energy stocks: Bonterra, Sunshine oilsands, Baytex,
Insider buying in Agrium, but there always is. (for last 10 years anyway)
I have no way of determining the reasons for the buying, and my list is FAR from complete.
You may assume I own shares in stocks I mention having insider buying, because if I had seen considerable insider selling, I probably would have sold those stocks.
No recommendations are implied here……just observations.
These are block trades, all of them, hedge fund on both sides of the first three you mentioned. I just talked to my trading desk, you have NO idea what you are talking about saying this is insider buying.
you want me to post the names of the actual insiders, Jon.!
Depending on the exchange you have to look up reports e.g. SEDI for TSX, which have to be filed by insiders.
For Alamos Gold for example:
AGI.TO
I don’t know if this table will post.
As of 11:59pm ET August 31st, 2015 Filing
Date Transaction
Date Insider Name Ownership
Type Securities Nature of transaction Volume or Value Price Aug 26/15 Aug 26/15 Murphy, Paul Direct Ownership Common Shares Class A 10 – Acquisition in the public market 2,500 $4.89
Aug 14/15 Aug 14/15 Porter, James Direct Ownership Common Shares Class A 10 – Acquisition in the public market 10,000 $4.67
Aug 17/15 Aug 14/15 Cormier, John Andrew Direct Ownership Common Shares Class A Amended Filing 10 – Acquisition in the public market 6,800 $4.74
Jul 22/15 Jul 20/15 Murphy, Paul Direct Ownership Common Shares Class A 10 – Acquisition in the public market 2,000 $4.65
Jul 5/15 Jul 3/15 Garson, Anthony Direct Ownership Rights Deferred Share Units 97 – Other -28,323 $7.14
USD Jul 16/15 Jul 2/15 Edwards, Alan R. Direct Ownership Common Shares Class A 00 – Opening Balance-Initial SEDI Report 48,398 Jul 15/15 Jul 2/15 Smith, Ronald Direct Ownership Common Shares Class A 00 – Opening Balance-Initial SEDI Report 8,106 Jul 15/15 Jul 2/15 Bostwick, Christopher John Direct Ownership Common Shares Class A 00 – Opening Balance-Initial SEDI Report 28,497 Jul 14/15 Jul 2/15 Chavez – Martinez, Mario Luis Direct Ownership Common Shares Class A Amended Filing 00 – Opening Balance-Initial SEDI Report 40,653 Jul 14/15 Jul 2/15 Daniel, Mark
etc.
Okay, i’m going back to work, only jumped on this site cuase a client asked me to check it out…wow, the lack of REALLY knowing what is going on is astounding. Goodl luck PPT-inventionists!!
Question?……….WHO was that WACKO , BAULD HEADED NY STOCK EXCHANGE PRESIDENT in 2000 ….who made $149MILLION and asked to give some of it back…..wondering minds want to know
REALITY SUCKS……….SOMETIMES………….
FFM CCF, here’s the answer to your question, if I am not mistaken:
http://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en-GB&source=hp&biw=&bih=&q=NYSE+ceo+giving+back+money&gbv=2&oq=NYSE+ceo+giving+back+money&gs_l=heirloom-hp.3…321.18664.0.19068.41.9.2.25.0.0.209.848.1j3j1.5.0….0…1ac.1.34.heirloom-hp..36.5.663.ufUuFqFoemo
Best,
LPG
LPG……AH, yes, thanks……..Grasso…………….OOTB
Mandalay – Insiders bought 945,000 shares last 7 days
https://canadianinsider.com/company?ticker=MND
So much for your 30 years experience.
that’s OLD news, public filings, you act like the blocks you quoted today are insiders. you are pretending to know stuff you don’t know. as for insider buying and selling, there is no way to know WHY it is happening. as a director I’ve gotten bonus money to use to buy stocks, it’s the bonus, doesn’t mean i am bullish, just like selling to buy a new car or boat doesn’t mean i am bearish. your cluelessness is astounding.
I am not acting like anything or pretending. I simply put up a link that speaks for itself.
When someone says “cannot be monitored in real time”, does that not imply it is recent, NOT right up to the minute?
I agree speculation is required to deduce cause for buying.
But people who know a company well usually do not buy stock because they want to lose their money down a sink hole, or even because they can think of some better place to spend it.
I’m just glad I still have a small position in Mandalay if all this insider buying is going on.
I THINK by years end………….the signs will be in………………………The CLAW
I like Almost gold, when they have their AGM meeting in Toronto the booze flows freely.
Almost gold is Alamos gold’s nickname on Bay street!
Dac,
Gold Canyon Resources up %60 today on deal with First Mining Finance.
Any takes out there on this deal???
http://web.tmxmoney.com/article.php?newsid=77874842&qm_symbol=GCU
I like the business model for First Mining Finance and they are gobbling up lots of interesting assets at fire-sale prices.
Doc
Docs, my S&P short up 12%! Dow drops below 15K it’s all over! Run for the hills with shotgun in hand!
Quarter rate hike happening in September. Banks have been ordered to pull the amount of money necessary to make it happen out of the stock market. This is the result and “what it looks like” when the banks now have to put those printed dollars on the books= a bit of a crash initially but cushioned for now as retail buys…Question is: Are the banks done pulling out or is there more ordered to withdraw?
Yep, let the market crash enough so that IR rise is cancelled – give the Fed the excuse to cancel – and then market soars for X months.
Jon is the only one here w/credibility, and what he’s saying makes sense.
Al, I’ve always been saying that, very very few folks have actual hands on experience, or are in the know – the rest have opinions, which even though may be well intended, and even though arguements seem logical, might be right or might be wrong.
There is no point at all at listening to an opinion on anything. Only the facts matter. And only those who are in the thick of it – i.e. are floor traders, or work for GS, or work at the Fed – have the facts.
That’s why I only look at charts. I recognize that I have no 1st hand info, so I just follow price.
Read Jon’s comments again – they make a lot of sense. And, he’s a floor trader, so have respect for this.
Another example (besides Jon) is Bubba, a floor trader. Here I re-post his Kitco report of last week, when he talks about gold. About how China is dumping gold on the public market, but that he suspects they are also buying though the back door. This would explain the pre-market dumps of gold.
Meaning, not everything is manipulation. Bubba doesn’t sit back and talk about gold manipulation, or the cartel, or any of that crap. He talks about what he knows and sees on the floor, in this case China.
Do all floor traders agree about this? I don’t know. Almost no one on this site has any hands on, real time, experience.
Al, I recommend you to get more folks who have this hands on experience. Problem might then be, will they tell the truth? I mean, they are running a business, so I would expect them to either avoid questions or not answer the whole truth. IMO.
Even though, what he said, was in conflict with what Alan Greenspan has said.
Even though you don’t actually have proof he was a floor trader! Interesting.
ditto
FFM..I’ll see your ditto and raise you three more….
you been nipping the scotch ……..gator……………give the dog a hug for me……..lol
funny.
CFS, correct on both counts.
And, about Greenspan, my point again is that, when we do hear from someone in the know w/the hard facts, we can’t be sure that they are telling the truth. So what he said may or may not be the truth, or the whole truth.
But yea, I have no idea if Jon is a floor trader. Or if you are, even though you never said you were!
I am not! ๐
For the record, just because I recognize that intervention exists does not mean that I care one way or the other about it.
Big money has always pushed markets around but now more than ever “manipulation” is built into the market because of the unprecedented actions of the central bankers. Aside from all the other influences, as long as the price and availability of capital is not set by the market (that is, as long as interest rates are manipulated), all prices are manipulated.
Agreed. I recognize that all markets are influenced and manipulated to some degree both up and down, and don’t care. Again, the markets have millions of participants and are so much bigger than any one entity or organization can control, and there is still a dynamic marketplace to trade every day.
For example, I have no idea if the Oil markets are manipulated up or down, and don’t care. Whether Oil is interfered with or not, I made 22% shorting it from yesterday to today, and did it based on the technical reasons mentioned yesterday. Manipulation never crossed my mind, just price targets.
The reason I visit this site is because it is relatively free of pumpers and dumpers. Of people who deliberately try to mislead.
Infinitely free of bogus tips, compared to, say, stockhouse.
Agreed CFS. There have been many good trading ideas I got off the blog in particular, and I like the editorials for a Macro overview. For example, I wouldn’t have a position in Mandalay if it wasn’t for your posts.
Keep on keepin’ on and good luck to you sir!
ditto
oh, I do not own Mandalay……….
You better get some Mandalay shares Contrarian’s Contrarian Frank…..before all the insider buyers get them all.
In all seriousness – It’s a well run company, has a dividend, and should be a multi-bagger over the next few years. (not investment advise….just my 2cents = nonsense).
I AM waiting for the TFC. to give me my tooth money…………
It’s big business – the Tooth Fairy Cartel doesn’t mess around…..
Here is Video proof of the Tooth Fairy Cartel and the big money in the Tooth Trade:
it is either 2% or lose a weener …….. lol
๐
My speculation is that after a large correction for the last few years, market will resume climbing later in the year. I mean DOW.
Doc,
Any thoughts on Teck Resources TCK – it hit that low of about 5 bucks last week and then soared tremendously on the coat-tails of the oil rally.
I see it dropped almost 10% today but wonder whether it has another 20% drop in it to take it back to that 5 buck area?
I am Welsh – I am genetically disposed towards the miners ๐
Funny Bob UK. I’m part Welsh as well…..that must be what it is…..
Bob; I’m keeping an eagle eye on TCK along with FCX. My gut and technicals tell me we have one more move down in these stocks toward the end of the year. At that time, I’m probably a buyer.
Thanks Doc.
Agreed Doc. Don’t leave out VALE along with TCK and FCX. They’ll all sink or swim together and those 3 are closely correlated.
TCK will be giving a major update on Sept 11. Might be worth the wait till then.
http://www.veracast.com/webcasts/baml/mining2015/id22207194624.cfm
Thanks CFS.
Thanks.
Here’s my big rant of the week:
1) Opinions from anyone do not matter. Only facts matter. And since humans routinely lie, or mislead (as CFS points out), etc, I just flat out can not trust that w/my money. The only fact that exists is PRICE. So that’s why I use TA.
2) No one can predict the future. Yet seems like all the time, every guest speaker is asked, and then answer, what’s next, as if they know. No one knows, nor can no. The only slight exception to this is Gary and Al, because they use Cycles and Hidden Pivots. These 2 methods use past history to calculate the next *probable* move. Not absolute, as both would freely say I imagine, but the next high probability move. That’s not predicting the future, but it’s kinda close.
3) Doc and Gary are different kinds of traders. Doc looks for trends to develop, and he then follows them, buying on the dip. Gary uses waves, and thus can buy earlier than Doc, if he thinks that a cycle has bottomed. In GDX, Gary is probably holding now because he thinks we’re at the bottom of the wave. Doc on the other hand is probably not holding because he’s 1st waiting for an uptrend (higher lows, highs), and then will buy on the dip. So it’s not about who’s right and who’s wrong, it’s about learning their respective styles, and risk mgmt. Rick lives from pivot to pivot, w/strong risk mgmt. 3 people, 3 styles, each following their way with strong discipline and risk mgmt.
correction … 2) the only exception is Gary and *Rick*
Good comments, Bill—you’re very right on. I use different technicals then both Rick and Gary. I’ve looked into Gary’s cycle theories to add validity to what I’m looking at. I also like to use them when they correspond to my technicals to add credence when I purchase stocks. The problems with cycles is that they can occasionally get pretty murky just like Elliot Wave theory.
A stock market sell off during September would actually be a strong sign that an interest rate cut will be implemented in October. And the reason for that is pretty straight forward. First, if stocks fall BEFORE a rate hike is announced then nobody could blame the Fed for having triggered a steep correction (or crash). Secondly, if stocks reach their bottom during this month into deep oversold territory then a rate hike would have little further impact.
Last, there is a very good probability that stocks would actually rally once a rate hike had been announced if the major corrective process had already completed. So this is about timing and I suspect the Fed is going to have to be cautious until they get the all-clear.
Rates go up and stock markets recover and rise. Its the perfect set up.
My apologies….I just wrote “interest rate cut” in my first sentence above instead of saying “interest rate increase”. Should have previewed my post before sending. Sorry about that.
Meanwhile, I neglected to make the point I started out wanting to talk about. It was this…..Even IF there is a PPT it defies logic they would intervene when it is well known by the market a rate hike is still on the table. It would be far more likely that a preference would be given to letting the market fall so that it is ready to bounce back hard in October when the hike is most likely going to be announced.
So we are on our own (if such as thing as the PPT still exists).
A Listener; watch CAFE which is an etf for coffee. I’m probably a buyer between 12 and 13.
It’s on the radar already. Thanks Doc
A listener, good points. Are you implying that some one is setting these up or God is helping?
No, Just saying that the gang at the Fed is surely well aware that the timing of a rate hike is better placed at the conclusion of the largest sell-off in the past many years than to hike before it.
The current market correction was fully expected by most professionals.
So a late October hike makes perfect sense if the lows are out of the way by then.
And that means equities will get bullish WITH a hike rather than sell-off because of one.
If you agree with my theory you would probably position to buy the market around the time of the next Fed meeting on October 27th to 28th. Either that or attempt to predict the bottom of this correction since it should precede those dates.
In other words….markets may get bloodied this month but will be ready to bounce back and recover 50 to 60 days from now after getting bashed around and showing worrisome volatility. This is actually a pretty good timing band based on the history of prior corrections (but not crashes).
I do think the market is aware of the timing as well. Fed watchers would not miss any coincidence in a correction relative the Federal Reserve meeting schedule and might try to overlay what many believe to be the last date in 2015 a rate hike could come. And they would likely assign a bullish bias for the remainder of the year.
So yes, we would still get a Santa Claus rally!
(Btw…there is one more Fed meeting in December 15-16 but I don’t think anyone sane believes we would get a rate hike so close to Christmas.)
Listener…good info. and theory..thanks…but there is no way I would touch this market..I am one of the doom and gloomers who think this whole financial mess will come tumbling down at some point…and at that time I will be glad I have the precious metals….regards..
ditto………….ditto…………..ditto
Gator,
Hope you’re well.
In case you haven’t done so, I suggest you take a listen to Martin Armstrong’s interview on Financialsense this week-end. It might provide some good food for thoughts and some historical perspective on some events.
Best to you and GL investing/trading.
LPG
We would like to get on our s)shoe, but he seems unwilling.
Maybe if you offered him a spot on the show instead of your shoe, he may play ball ๐
LPG I just listened to the Puplava Armstrong interview. It is a really good one. He mentions that reading Herbert Hoover’s memoirs for the period around 1931 is a good idea. Hoover wrote in this section of his memoirs:
“…enormous expansion of the Federal government; they mean the growth of bureaucracy such as we have never seen in our history. No man who has not occupied my position in Washington can fully realize the constant battle which must be carried on against incompetence, corruption, tyranny of government expanded into business activities.”
Hoover: “True liberalism seeks all legitimate freedom first in the confident belief that without such freedom the pursuit of other blessings is in vain. Liberalism is a force truly of the spirit proceeding from the deep realization that economic freedom cannot be sacrificed if political freedom is to be preserved.”
Thanks for sharing the quotes. Hoover is absolutely right; economic and political (and individual) freedom are inseparable.
The classical liberal is called a libertarian today. Today’s so-called liberals are tyrants just like their “right wing” counterparts.
Wow! Someone supporting my position without even realizing it. Knowledge and logic are important. Clearly the PPT did not intervene today, abd logic says they should not soon.
But I never claimed the PPT intervened regularly; that is not their mandate,. They exist to prevent chaos or collapse.
Hard to be logical, when half the population is doped up……..beginning in grade school.
The stock market is collapsing but before this happens it is going crazy, that is the only way on earth to describe what is happening? The big question is how much longer will the opportunity be around to sell at these prices.DT
Guess it depends on your interpretation of “collapse”. So far this is still technically just a correction of which the markets have experienced many in the past so its not like this is something special. Is the cup half empty or half full?
What I don’t get about raising interest rates is that many say if they do, that they won’t be able to pay off the interest on the debt. So they say this is just talk.
I have no idea.
There is a lack of knowledge of how creation of Federal Reserve notes work.
E.g. If the Federal Government ceased all taxation, would it be able to meet social security and welfare payments and pay all federal employees, etc?
The answer is YES. Even with zero income the Federal government can always pay all obligations.
It can create money!
The downside is that money flowing out of the country, without an offsetting amount flowing into the country will cause the exchange rate relative to other countries to change and the dollar to become worth less.
The biggest cause of the resultant drop in value actually has little to do with taxation directly.
As entities realize the country has no income, they stop lending it money, i.e. don’t buy bonds and treasury notes, so lesser money flows in, and a downward spiral starts very quickly..
However, there is political sensitivity to the appearance of not trying to balance income and expenditure.
So is the stock market collapsing? Hell no!
I just cannot understand the folks who keep saying that. For months and months (years in some cases) we have all been treated to an endless parade of gloom from the most popular alternate media web sites that host the dark opinions of famous names.
You know very well the guys and gals with the most negative outlook:
Egon von Greyerz, Stephen Leeb, Sinclair, Salinas-Price, Mcguire, Mannarino, Stockman, Andy Hoffman, Fleckenstein, Holter, Pento, Celente, Paul Craig Roberts, Turk, Austin-Fits, Charles Hugh Smith, John Williams, that hateful angry Rob Kirby or that anti-USA Michael Snyder.
That’s just a snapshot of a few but there are many, many more and you know well who they are. Some of them have been relentlessly bearish since the stock markets started surging 6 or 7 years ago (losing track of time) and to this day are still repeating the same damn thing having missed most of the bull market in equities.
But, like most of you out there I really like some of these people because they offer fine entertainment and do great interviews. Individually they are brilliant. As a group they make me feel like building a nuclear bunker and getting long Tin Foil and canned Tuna.
And lately they are all singing the same damned gloom song about crashes and lost wealth and our influence in the world being on the wane. It is so depressing. If I let them into my home too often and watch their interviews on my computer screen I also start to sink into a very funky negative way of thinking.
Maybe its the effect they have on me as a group. I cannot really fault any one of them individually but collectively they would be death for my portfolio if I listened too often and started to take them too seriously.
Between Shemita’s and blood moons and hyperinflations and insider conspiracy facts that nobody living can ever prove they offer a dogs breakfast of conflicting information that while helpful and often interesting is useless as trading information and will just make you poor if you rely on it day to day.
So I am turning them all off. They just got kicked off my computer screen once and for all. And good riddance to the whole lot. I am very sorry to say it but goodbye to you gloomers….
You have got to just go.
The stock market will be around for a long time……..over due for a correction…jmho
and most of the mentioned names come up with some good points ,,,,BUT, do your own DD………………………………………………………….THE CLAW
AND I agree with sometimes being to negative……………………….CCF
I’m sure they will miss you, but your points are well taken.
By the same token most of our society measures a person’s success by their wealth, and the people (gloomers) you mentioned have done very well for themselves, so you can ignore them or you can choose to include them in your thinking. I don’t see that as a need to take them too seriously and let it depress you. They are part of the overall picture and shouldn’t be put on ignore, in my opinion.
+1
Some of the guys on that list are simply recognizing reality. You can protect and profit from a bad situation without becoming negative.
In my experience, it is the scared/weak individuals that can’t be happy while also accepting some ugly truths. For them, denial is necessary for happiness. They make up the biggest part of the population. Candyasses. ๐
I too have mostly tuned them out, even though I think many make good points.
They have no sense of timing or proportion, and don’t present a balanced strategy. I’m sure some of those you have listed have cost many they want to help (giving them the benefit of the doubt) dearly by scaring them into irrationality.
I think it’s pretty simple. If one believes they may be right, assess the risks and take out insurance (gold, food, guns, land, whatever you think is warranted). After that, get on with everyday living.
Trade the markets if you want. But you can’t trade if every decision is condition with a sense of impending doom and urgency.
Yes they created the PPT, NO they do not buy stocks and futures. Seriously, if they did, why would they EVER go down? What happened, did they fall asleep and let gold rally to 1900 then wake up and jump in? Do you really think that they could do this trading without ever having ONE LEAK? Come on, I’ve been a floor trader since 1985 and know that yes, hedge funds and bank prop desks push things around, but not the PPT or the Fed. And do you know that banks make money on the short side too. This level of “THEY” playing in the markets is a joke.