Tuesday Morning with Rick
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Rick Ackerman is looking for oil to drop to the mid to low twenty dollar level. What are your thoughts on this?
Cdn$!
$25 cdn is about $15 usd!
Yep, as I implied in my prior post on this issue.
But you’re not saying that oil is being sold for $15, are you?
Anyway, it looks like the loonie is catching a bid…
http://schrts.co/NFlx4P
Al: Of the four amigo Rick is my favourite. But I appreciate that you poiltely challenge him on some of his comments. I hope you do it more with some of your other guests.
Bob
Fair enough, thanks Bob
Probably not a popular topic:
QUESTION: Dear Marty,
You have put your numbers out there for all to see for year end. Can they manipulate the closing due to thin markets, then reverse them to try and make you look bad?
Thank you.
Best,
TD
ANSWER: Sorry, but it is impossible. I tried myself to elect a number when I was the largest player in a market and could not. In 1998, I sold ¥1 billion yen against the Yearly Bullish Reversal at 147 on an MIT just before the LTCM collapse. I was awarded Hedge Fund Manager of the year for those trades. The market took it with no problem at my price and then collapsed.
In 1997, I stood up against all of the bankers and won when they were trying to manipulate silver. There are much bigger forces at work than you can imagine. You cannot manipulate a single market against the trend of the whole for you would have to do every market simultaneously, assuming that could even be done.
The numbers are the numbers and nobody can change that. These theories are excuses created by people who have never traded any size. It is like a man trying to write a book on how it feels to go through childbirth. Some things can only be seen or understood with experience — not BS.
The numbers are the numbers and they are either elected or not for a REAL reason. It is NEVER one single market in isolation. It is EVERYTHING collectively. Our forecast that gold peaked in 2011 was directly linked to our forecast that the Dow would take off to new highs, which also nobody believed. Barrons reported, perhaps tongue in cheek, on June 25, 2011: “The model pegged June 13-June 14, 2011, as the start of a long-term upward trend in the market, the market obliged by notching its first weekly rise since April 29.”
Yes, there are people who hate me because they use manipulation as an excuse for their incorrect forecasts. They would better serve their readers by actually trying to forecast market movements up or down rather than preaching only one direction which is more akin to what politicians do.
This entry was posted in Basic Concepts, Q&A and tagged real forecasting by Martin Armstrong. Bookmark the permalink.
I believe that all of us here firmly believe that to be true.
this site is rather dead..
Sending some positive vibes your way Agatha.
Let’s all be supportive and positive about what people say on here 🙂
Our site is rather dead? Well, okay.
I love this site and I love Rick’s advice. Gary is still missed and I appreciate Avi too.
Chris I love this site too….& absolutely adore everyone that comes on here…UHMMM nice boys….XXXXXXXXX
Sorry about the above post, but we are in the doldrums at the moment, stuck between Christmas & the new year so just aping around.
funny Irishtony.
Irish Tony is a cool dude!
Sounds good to me. Wish I could have got in on DWTI when it was below $100. Anywho, my Camry hybrid is LOVING these lower gas prices. We were sporting 39-40 MPGs on our holiday vacation to PA. I have a hunting trip planned for the afternoon. Probably top 40 MPGs since the car will be empty. Wife’s 1.5L commuter is loving the lower prices as well. We use nat-gas for heating and cooking and our local power plant does as well. Paid off the Summer vacation this month, Christmas is paid for, and the holiday trip is also paid off. Keep these lower prices coming my UWTI and ECA positions be darned!
Canada is already selling oil at $22 – $25.