Is a continued strong US dollar going to play havoc on the markets?
Rick Ackerman kicks off today with coverage first on gold and oil. We then get into the US dollar and how it could influence investing throughout this year. The dollar can build strength in two ways, one through global currency weakness and the other through US strength. Which will be the main driver?
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i think gold is hot right now, silver seems quite limp, makes no sense, but clearly it’s not silver’s moment..for the moment
Need a breakout beyond$16.37
Here’s a Gold chart. Note the Stochastics RSI at the top, and the Slow Stochastics and ADX green line turning down and red line turning up at the bottom.
Also note how the 200 week EMA has acted as a ceiling the last 2 times Gold tried to break out. If Gold could close above that $1258.35 level, and the $1263 recent top it would be bullish. However, Gold looks rather top-heavy based on the chart.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p31442434201
To include today’s action, here’s your chart with GLD in place of $GOLD. I see a picture that is much more promising than the last moves that ended near the 200 w ema. The Slow STO and ADX look better and the volume is much better. More importantly, price is in its fourth week near the high while the other peaks failed in two or less.
Yes GLD has held up twice as long as the prior 2 attempts at the 200 week EMA, so maybe 3 times a charm? We’ll have to ask IrishTony if he has any lucky charms.
I’ll still say that the slow stokes and ADX still look like they could turn down soon, but maybe that is the new normal if this really is a baby bull. I’m trying to look at the chart objectively though and if it was a stock of any other company I’d take profits here.
I may be way off, because as you’ve noted we Gold may be using a different playbook now. Again, if Gold or GLD can close decisively above the 200 week EMA, and the recent February peak, then another good leg up could take off.
Matthew you made a really good point over the weekend, that it also could just move sideways, move back down on the indicators (but not in price), and then blast higher, so I’m keeping that in the back of my mind as well…..
Don’t get me wrong, there are risks here and you are right that the Slow STO is very elevated. I’m just impressed with some of the details and still have to give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls.
Excelsior & Matthew
I have spent some time, over the weekend, with charts that were bullish (e.g. AAPL in the early 2000s), to see what bull patterns look like. Essentially, I am trying to compensate for my own recency bias. My new lens sees a bullish pattern, not another bear pattern.
On another point, as the time that gold spends in this 1190-1260 range progresses, the upcoming (predicted) decline below 1190, will continue to diminish in Breadth, Depth, and Volume.
Me? I think the re-test of 1190 was the local bottom. It might be re-tested, but as each day progresses, it becomes more unlikely.
Brian
Good thoughts Brian. Yes, even though the indicators in the charts seem overbought, there is no denying that Gold had a strong rally in overnight trading, then all day Monday, and this has continued into after-hours trading.
Gold is still range-bound to some degree, but if it closed above that 200 week MA (now it’s $1258.16), and the $1263 recent top it would be very bullish. In that scenario you could be right that $1190 was the recent bottom & support. Until that happens we are in a limbo as far as Gold, and may just keep trudging sideways.
As for the stocks GDXJ, GDX, GLDX, TGLDX, and USERX were all positive today.
I bought back a few more mining positions, and also took out a little JDST at the end of the trading day as a slight hedge since we are in a positively-biased yet neutral environment for the miners.
Gold is continuing to climb in after-hours trading at $1246.40. Will it break through the 200 week MA and prior high tonight or tomorrow?
I’ll concede you are correct that Gold is acting quite bullish, and may very well surprise to the upside. To me it looks way overbought and like it should roll over, but if this is the new normal to stay overbought in the baby bull, then maybe I need to get more bull-headed.
Here it is with IPT overlayed. Notice that IPT peaked 3-4 weeks earlier than GLD both previous times and was well off its high by the time GLD peaked.
If IPT peaked 3-4 weeks before GLD this time as well, that means another high is coming for gold. However, since IPT is holding up so well, that’s not what I think it is telling us. Instead, I think both are going higher but IPT is going much higher.
Silver dropped about 4% last week and is still below $15 yet the silver juniors are holding up extremely well and USA is up 16.67% right now. That seems like a clear message to me.
Yes I think Silver had more catching up to do relative to Gold, so I haven’t been tracking the Silver miners versus the spot price of Gold, but that is interesting.
Here’s a chart with GLD but with USERX as the black line. They seem to be fairly well correlated on the peaks.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p96894011176
Is Silver Leading?
February 28, 2016 – posted by Surfcity on Goldtent TA Paradise
Excelsior and Mathew
What would be your #1 favorite (READ: Most potential for gains with some risk) silver miner stock, after Alexco, Impact, Americas, and Avino? I would like to do some research.
Or maybe, It’s time to by some SLW and just relax?
Berian
Well this is very speculative, but I expect the highest percentage returns in near term silver producer Nicola Mining (previously Huldra Silver).
What I like about it is that they already built their mine and mill before the pricing fell out of the bottom. There are very few mills that will get commissioned or permitted so this will allow them to process other mines product in the area. They also have the ability to process contaminated soil and do the reclamation work.
Here is the Corporate Presentation for Nicola Mining:
I also am a big fan of Silvercorp and have a core position but trimmed some back the last 2 weeks. Very solid, 3 mines, used to have a share price ten times as much and they didn’t have their costs anywhere as low as they do now. (very low costs)
Here is the Corporate Presentation for Silvercorp:
http://silvercorpmetals.com/investors/corporate_presentations/
I, personallly, like Silvercorp.
I also have a small position started in Aurcana. They have 2 Silver Mines (Mexico/Texas), but the TX mine is on care and maintenance. Over the last few years they made some terrible decisions with reverse splits, grade estimate fails, cleared out their whole management team, restructured, and I believe they may be a turnaround story.
Here is the corporate presentation for Aurcana:
http://www.aurcana.com/_resources/presentations/Corporate_Presentation.pdf
I like them in the order you listed them. I still think Impact will be the gains winner when it’s all said and done, but Alexco might be slightly more of a sure thing because of the resources it has already drilled off. I have to admit that I own more IPT than AXU.
I also am considering a position in Kootenay Silver (purchasing Northair Silver & Pan American Silver just bought 20% of their company).
Sorry, I misread your question. I’ll have to get back to you on that.
Bonus round:
I have been watching Bear Creek Mining for 2 years and about ready to pull the trigger over the next few months.
Bayhorse Silver has 2 properties that can go straight into mining (unique laws and permitting), on previously producting properties. They need to raise money, but once they do or if they JV’d the project, they’d be off to the races.
Dolly Varden Silver is a takeout prospect that I believe Hecla will purchase. Hecla just loaned them some money, and they just moved their offices inside of Hecla’s building. (ding ding ding).
Cymbols! Thanks Ex
And your #1 favorite, Ex? Drum roll please…
Great ideas. You two guys are the best !
Super Bonus Round on Speculative Silver Stocks:
I also believe that Excellon and Arizona Mining (previously AZ mining, and prior to that Wildcat Silver), don’t get enough recognition. Arizona mining is producing.
Santacruz mining (previously a sponsor here on KER) is a producer, they have a nice little mine, and some other projects, but need higher prices. Their offtake agreement at $17 an ounce ends sometime soon.
Minco is a good little producer, with a few challenges, but higher prices will cure all.
Mines Management finally got things going again after a long wait, so there may be some action there.
The Canasil / Orex story has been interesting with their exploration success lately.
Defiance Silver (if they are even in business still) has an amazing potential upside on their property, but I can’t tell if they are restructuring at present.
Canarc Resource corp is very interesting and I almost took a position a few weeks back.
Mirasol is one of Brent Cooks favorites and they are developing and exploring a very nice, and he feels economic, resource.
Silvercrest has all their spinoff properties that didn’t get bought during the First Majestic takeover, and they are a great exploration team, so I’m watching their progress.
Here are a few others I’m still digging into:
American Silver Mining Company, Apogee Silver, Aura Silver, Avrupa Minerals, Levon Resources, Maya Gold & Silver, Max Resource corp, Silver Bull resources, Silver Range Resources (Strategic Metals has a big position), Southern Silver Exploration, and Vena Resources.
Matthew – If we take out Alexco, Impact, Americas Silver, and Avino Silver & Gold?
My # 1 longer term Mid-tier Silver producer (minus the above stocks) is Silvercorp.
(I own or recently owned Aurcana, Great Panther, Hecla, Endeavour and Fortuna and like them all for different reasons)
My #1 Speculative company is Nicola Mining
(Kootenay, Arizona Mining, Bear Creek, Bayhorse Silver, and Dolly Varden as others I’m considering)
I also have considered just buying Silver Wheaton and the ETF (SILJ) and never thinking about investing in individual stocks again and just letting it ride……. 😉
a final thought…..there are very few pure Silver plays, so most of them have base metal credits of Copper, Lead, and Zinc. Most of the companies listed above fit this. Trevali mining & Arizona mining are calling themselves Zinc plays, but they have a lot of Silver, and used to position themselves that way.
There are also a few Gold/Silver companies worth mentioning, that I consider “Gold” companies, but that have very nice Silver credits:
McEwen Mining, Mandalay Resources, Klondex Mines, Paramount Gold & Silver, Sierra Metals, Starcore International, Sabina Silver & Gold, and there are others but this is plenty to research for now.
Actually, you make a point that I have considered.
Once I own all of the stocks I feel comfortable owning, do I start looking for more speculative (uncomfortable) companies to own? Or do I just put the remaining into a liquid, easily tradable ETF or streamer to reduce risk and worry.
I reviewed all of your suggestions and, to be honest, I’m not sure what I will do with my final silver purchase
However, you are situated quite nicely when you decide to go all-in; there will be no hesitation hovering over a “BUY” button, for you, I imagine?
My master plan is to have 12 Silver stocks (6 Mid-Tiers, 4 Smaller producers, 2 Speculative), and then any remaining position in Silver Wheaton and the ETF (SILJ).
Some of the stocks I like are not in the ETFs (yet), and some have such a small weighting in the ETFs that I’d rather hold them separately and rebalance accordingly. I am more actively managing my account though.
If I didn’t want to think about all the individual companies or take much risk then I’d just split my money 3 ways (SLW), (SIL), and (SILJ).
Here are the updated holdings inside of SILJ. Looks like they just rebalanced also:
PureFunds ISE Junior Silver (Small Cap Miners/Explorers) ETF (SILJ)
FIRST MAJESTIC SILVER CORP AG 14.73548589
PAN AMERICAN SILVER CORP PAA CN 13.42784266
MAG SILVER CORP COM MAG CN 11.29145198
FORTUNA SILVER MINES INC COM FVI CN 5.059576516
COEUR MINING INC. CDE 4.973112852
MANDALAY RES CORP COM MND CN 4.831223231
HOCHSCHILD MINING HOC LN 4.590659536
SILVERCORP METAL INC COM SVM CN 4.427086262
ENDEAVOUR SILVER CORP EXK 4.16531604
SABINA GOLD & SILVER CORP COM SBB CN 3.897670607
SILVER STANDARD RESOURCES SSO CN 3.721386636
GREAT PANTHER SILVER LTD GPL 3.489495385
SIERRA METALS INC SMT CN 3.4707869
ALEXCO RESOURCE CORP AXU 3.188280123
TREVALI MINING CORP TV CN 2.938504908
BEAR CREEK MNG CORP COM BCM CN 2.127012719
MIRASOL RES LTD COM MRZ CN 2.125406417
AMERICAS SILVER CORP USA CN 2.019874071
IMPACT SILVER CORP IPT CN 0.659084507
SANTACRUZ SILVER MNG LTD SCZ CV 0.658612088
GOLDEN MINERALS CO AUMN 0.650067869
AURCANA CORPORATION AUN CN 0.494985528
MINCO SILVER CORP COM MSV CN 0.458027798
EXCELLON RESOURCES INC EXN CN 0.448324655
KOOTENAY SILVER INC KTN CN 0.395906253
Nice work, E!
Got lucky last decade with Keith Barron’s Aurelian when he was a regular on financialsense, a 32 bagger, and Minefinders a 30 bagger. And SilverStandard , a 22 bagger. It’s been a long drought.
Above all, I thank God for the TA in 2003-04 schooling that preserved 70 % of those gains.
Nicely done Mary.
It’s going to be another fun run for the next few years to get some multi-baggers.
Since we’ve been discussing Silver today, are there any companies you really like in the Small or Mid-Size producers, or in the development and exploration Juniors?
Marty…..not Mary….. sorry was typing too fast. : )
Osisko Reports Preliminary 2015 Results
MONTREAL, QUEBEC–(Marketwired – Feb. 29, 2016)
Midas Gold Provides Update on Previously Announced C$55.2 Million Financing
VANCOUVER, BC–(Marketwired – February 29, 2016)
First Dore Bar Produced at Starcore’s Altiplano Plant
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA–(Marketwired – Feb. 26, 2016)
Au/Ag Positions I’ve added the last 6 months by $ amount- TAHO, NSU, RGRNF( a GDX component) all for the dividend component of 3.7%, 7%, 7.5%, all CFP as well as FSM, PVG, EGDFF,@ $.27 & SGSVF @$.40, not really a Ag play but a royalty deal with Glencore, a bit nebulous at this time.
A very good list of companies. I am not familiar with Regis Resources Limited, or with Energold Drilling Corp. so I’ll check them both out. Thanks Marty!
Ex, the President CEO and Director of Energold is also the President and CEO of Impact Silver.
Energold is Impact’s largest shareholder with more than a 10% stake.
Thanks Matthew. Very interesting.
The weekly chart in $US Gold is showing an important moving average crossover, and prices holding above the 89-week EMA.
That is interesting that it is holding above the 89 week EMA.
OK FranSix – You get the chart of the day award 🙂
Thank-you all, I’ve done my good deed for the day.
Here’s another good chart from Gold Tent today looking for a close above the 38.2% fib.
After watching the near-fi movie ‘Children Of Men’ I find myself urging on the gold price: ‘You can do it! Push! Breath and push!
Ha! Precious Metals Lamaze.
“Children Of Men” has some of the longest shots (longest scene without cutting) in the history of film.
Maybe the most important event with gold, in February, is what DID NOT happen: Gold DID NOT have an overnight downdraft back to 1090. For goodness sakes, it’s touching 1240 today on a slow graceful rise into the monthly close. Gold DROPPED nearly $100 on the last leap day, 2012.
The Silver Hammer continues, though. Looks like someone does NOT want $US15.00 silver again.
Brian
What about silver? Is it just going to ride on the coat tails of gold then?