Targets for US markets, bonds, gold and oil
Rick Ackerman starts today with his targets and outlook for US markets, long term bonds, gold and oil. It is important to know that Rick’s targets are importnat price levels to watch how the investment moves when it reaches those. Some of the higher targets can be shorted but as Rick points out with his oil target you should have a tight stop if you decide to take a position.
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As a shareholder in FFMGF, I’m biased. This is a 4 to 5 year buy and hold.
FF.V mines are no doubt 5-15 years out to production or sold off. With this issue , you ar buying Keith Neumeyers expertise.
Big fan of FFMGF. Agree with CFS that it’s a 4-5 year buy and hold, but unless it’s a fraud and Neumeyer, Sprott, etc. want to go to prison (I don’t think it is obviously) then it should do really, really well because they know what they are doing.
Risk is gold never takes off I guess, which IMO is very low, or that there are nasty issues with the properties they buy, but again they’ve been around a long time and know the ropes and looks like FFMGF is sticking to pretty safe jurisdictions.
Doesn’t mean it won’t move big before then (challenge may be to not be tempted to sell out too soon IMO)
Here’s a link to a recent radio interview with Marin Katusa about FFMGF and his investment in it.
JAY T………..THANKS FOR THE POST on Katusa
Mark Gix !!! I think you’re have a good plan ! Buy in a Bike drop ! Sprott will Buy in a BIKE strange DROP !!!! ALL THE BEST !
Franky – I for one am buying this Bike drop, but I’m not following Sprott int the BIKE strange drop.
Exactly. Same here.
😉
Mark, the real truth on First Mining is they are and have purchased a bunch of uneconomic and marginal gold properties that will only be viable in an extreme gold price environment and even then they are all years away from ever producing an ounce of gold if they ever do.
I know many folks get carried away with some of these these story stocks sometimes but when you really dig deep you find they are not as good or as well managed as publicized. That’s not to say you can’t make some money with this company as the gold price rises.
To boot this company has only been in existence for less than a year and they have diluted the hell out of the shareholder base and as of today the O/S float stands at over 293,000,000 million shares. This is a rollback company in the making.
I like Keith Neumeyer and his First Majestic and think he is pretty solid but I don’t think everything he touches will turn to gold, if you get my drift.
Hope my harsh opinion doesn’t ruffle too many feathers, but that’s the way I see it.
V
Vortex I share some of your concerns on the dilution of First Mining that has developed so quickly, and figure they will roll that stock back eventually. As for the quality of the assets, I haven’t got a great handle on each property they acquired, but I believe Keith mentioned on an interview recently that he was buying based on the price of an ounce of gold or silver in the ground.
Personally, I like the prospect generator model, but think some of the companies I posted Corporate Presentations for below (Abitibi Royalties, Altius Minerals, Eurasian Minerals, Strategic Metals, Transition Metals, Typhoon Exploration, Oban Mining, and Millrock Resources) are better valued. Most of those have key strategic partners, existing or developing Royal Streams, and exploration JVs already in place. In contrast, First Majestic is just buying the properties and holding them from what I’ve seen thus far.
Check out some of the project generators below and let me know if any ring your bell.
Yes Ex, everyone involved in this sector buys and invests in the companies they find compelling and we all live with our choices.
There is no magic bullet or perfect blueprint for most of this stuff. We all have our metrics for investing in these high beta burning matches and hope for the best.
You have a lot of great little companies listed and in reality there are just too many for me personally to follow. I’m really looking to find 10 to 20 of the really top tier of the exploration / advanced late stage pre-production stories and accumulate large share positions to hold for the next 3-5 years. Of course share dilution of the smaller non-profitable companies is one of my top indicators for that decision as a long-term shareholders.
I’m fully cognizant that there are folks here that could careless about that dynamic.
Keep up the great work and bringing the meat and potatoes about great little companies that look promising. Really appreciate it. 🙂
Thanks Vortex. The companies below were just the Prospect Generator business model with Royal streams, similar to First Mining Finance, so that is why I posted them on this thread.
Earlier in the week I posted every Major producer, Mid tier producer, Small producer, Near-term producer/Development company, Streaming company, and big list of Exploration companies.
Based on your response, you may want to check out the Small Producers and Near Term Producers/Development company lists.
Cheers.
Despite a truly massive push-back in the conventional markets, the fundamentals for gold prices continues to improve, as we’ve seen a moving average crossover. Further declines are in the offing, and gold prices are lagging this indicator, which us strongly inversely correlated:
Thank you everybody for the answers about First Mining!
I have understand that this is not a stock for quick gain but could be a winner in the long term.
For quicker gains maybe it would be better to buy paas-ag-ssri or even the more speclative bear creek or silvercorp.
I had bought Canyon gold and found myself with First Mining,this is beacuse of my question. 🙂
First Mining is run by Keith Neumeyer who I have a great deal of respect for, and he feels now is the time to gobble up assets and hold them for better times. With this strategy Keith won big with First Quantum, then created a huge Silver company First Majestic using the same strategy. He sees First Mining as three times a charm.
Other companies that are prospect generators like this are Strategic Metals, Eurasian Minerals, Millrock Resources, Oban Mining, Typhoon Exploration, and Transition Metals. It is an interesting busienss model where you JV with other companies or sell off properties as you develop the resources. Companies like Idaho North also have Coeur paying for their exploration, so there are different spins on the idea.
In fact, Niogold was a good Prospect Generator that had been forgotten about and Oban Mining just scooped them up on the cheap. That was a wise acquisition for Oban Mining.
I also had bought Niogold and ended in Oban!! 🙂
I used to hold shares in Niogold and still have a small position in Typhoon Exploration because they were both prospect generators for Aurizon Mines (who got acquired by Hecla, and that is why Hecla’s Gold revenue has surpasses its Silver revenue). I still hope one day that Hecla who still has the JV earn-in rights passed to it from Aurizon will buy out little Typhoon.
Here is a page that show the Hecla 50/50 with Typhoon for the Fayolle property:
As for Oban it is looking more and more interesting as they grow their asset base:
Corporate Presentation for Oban Mining Corp:
http://www.obanmining.com/_resources/ObanCorporatePresentation.pdf
Ex – Did you see the press release from TYP the other day? I’m no geo but that OreVision technology seems exciting.
I’ve been accumulating TYP on weakness for the last several months since I think there’s a lot more going for their properties than is widely recognized. Right now, it trades at .1 times book and has more cash than market cap so I am treating it like an out-of-the-money call that doesn’t expire. With a market cap of $1.6M, bull market sentiment alone could deliver a ten or twenty bagger eventually.
http://explorationtyphon.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/2016_03_15-EN.pdf
“The company was awarded the 2010 “Entrepreneur of the Year” and “E3 Plus (Environmental Excellence in Exploration)” by the Quebec Mineral Exploration Association (AEMQ).
The shares of Typhoon are listed on the TSX and trade under the symbol TYP. It should be noted that the company has only 35,426,791 shares outstanding.”
That’s a pretty tight share structure and they have had no rollbacks.
Wow. No I hadn’t see that release on the OreVision technology they are using to map out exploration targets. Very cool!
Thanks Matthew.
Great point on Typhoon being like and out of the money call, because it is trading below cash value and no value is being given to their exploration targets.
Again, I hope Hecla buys them out eventually (but it is more likely that Hecla will buy Dolly Varden Silver next).
If not maybe First Mining or Oban Mining will buyout Typhoon. I’m underwater on it at present, but maybe I can average down a bit to near parity and wait for the kernel to pop.
It ran from .06 to .27 in 2014. So it can move when the time is right – news or no news. It went ten fold in five months back in 2006.
I’m going to take another look at Dolly Varden.
Hecla just gave Dolly Varden Silver a loan…..AND….. Dolly Varden just moved into Hecla’s headquarters. Seems like they are already starting to the process of merging.
“VANCOUVER, BC / ACCESSWIRE / February 3, 2016 / Dolly Varden Silver Corporation (TSX.V: DV | OTC: DOLLF) (the “Company” or “Dolly Varden”) is pleased to announce receipt of C$500,000 in funds comprising the second and final tranche of the previously announced senior secured loan (the “Loan”) from Hecla Canada Ltd. and Robert L. Gipson, two significant shareholders of the Company.”
“In January, Dolly Varden reduced staff and consolidated its corporate office within Hecla Canada’s Vancouver corporate office space, allowing elimination of monthly office rent payment.”
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/dolly-varden-silver-draws-final-233000937.html
Here’s a new release of Oban Mining today. Very timely with our discussion:
Oban Intersects 11.39 g/t Au Over 19.9 Metres at Windfall
TORONTO, ONTARIO–(Marketwired – March 18, 2016)
Abitibi Royalties is a royalty company (similar to Streaming in some aspect, but endorsed by Rob McEwen he owns 9% of the company). They have some JV ideas or prospect generating ideas themselve.
Corporate Presentation for Abitibi Royalites. (worth reviewing pages 4-5 for peer comparisons to other Streaming & Royalties companies and many other gold companies like Klondex, Kirkland Lake, Lake Shore Gold (prior to merger), Claude (prior to merger), Argonaut, Wesdome, Richmont, and Timmins Gold.
http://abitibiroyalties.com/investors/presentations/rzz-march2016.pdf
Are SSRI and HECLA still silver companies or they are transforming themselves in gold companies according to you?
We discussed Altius Minerals as another Royalty comapany and JV Exploration company with a similar Approach to Abitibi Royalties above, only with more Base Metals exposure.
Corporate Presentation for Altius Minerals:
Hecla is polymetallic miner like most, but over 43% of their revenues come from Gold, 28% from Silver, and rest from a mix of Base Metals. So I’m considering them a Gold company now.
I believe Silver Standard Resources is getting to be in a similar situation where they’ll be more evenly weighted across Gold, Silver, and Base Metals.
This is like Klondex that is Gold, but with big Silver assets, and the same thing with McEwen Mining. Mandalay Resources have 3 mines with more Gold, some Silver, and some Base metals but they are still considered Silver miners to some. Sierra Metals is another company with a similar mix of assets that shows up in Silver and Gold lists, but is a well-rounded producer.
There really are very few pure Silver or pure Gold plays.
Even the streamer Silver Wheaton has a huge Gold position now, and the Gold streamers like Franco-Nevada, Royal gold, and Sandstorm gold have Silver, Base Metals, Diamonds, and other energy commodities exposures.
Everyone is a mixed bag these days.
Here is the Corporate Presentation for Eurasian Minerals (like Abitibit they have royalties, stock placement in other companies, and JV exploration agreements).
Here is the Corporate Presentation for Strategic Metals that like Abitibi and Eurasian Minerals also has some Royalties, some investment in other explorers, and some JV deals.
Here is the Corporate Presentation for Millrock Resources doing the same prospect generator model of JV exploring their assets, and then splitting off royalty streams:
http://www.millrockresources.com/investors/corporate-presentation/
Here is the Corporate Presentation for Transition Metals doing the same thing:
http://www.transitionmetalscorp.com/images/stories/Investors/Presentations/presentation.pdf
Sure, Mark. IMO we need to consider that while it could take 4-5 years to play out, it could also “take off at any time” to $1 to $2 if an institution or more retail traders get interested (e.g. on news of another acquisition). It has 260 million shares with avg. volume of 500k/ day, so definitely room to trade a lot more (I’m looking at FFMGF as I buy it on the US market)
Say it goes to $20 a share eventually, which I think is reasonable because their goal is 20 million ounces and they have around 9 mln to date I think. If so, missing the first big up move could cost a lot of gain.
If this was a single junior vs. a portfolio/ roll up model or had management I’d never heard of or running on fumes for cash, I wouldn’t touch it, but with all the positives it seems to have IMO it’s worth putting a couple of grand in and just watching it for a few years.
Everyone has to decide what’s right for them, but I decided to just accumulate a position and see what happens.
Thank you JayT , very appreciated.
OBAN Mining !!! is good Mark gix A good buy one a strange DROP ! I will buy diss stock !!!
1 BEAD Thing First mining ! (((((( 312 000 OOO )))))) shares is a wonderffull short game !!!! ONLY buy in strange DROP !!!!!!!
Franky – Good point about “ONLY buy in strange DROP !!!!!!!”
Go for it Mark!!
I have asked Al to invite Keith Neumeyer on as one of his guests. Al said he would.
Good idea. He’s been on in the past.
I would also ask……….Martin Katusa………….
Yeah, it would be good to get an update from Marin on Oil, Uranium, and Gold.
Added some more VIXY today at 12.63. S&P hit 2052 just above my target.
Paul I added some more Volatility position in TVIX this morning and shorted Oil this morning as well. I wrote you a few questions on the Market Wrap from yesterday but will just re-post it here. Any thoughts you have would be appreciated:
“I mentioned yesterday that for WTI Oil that the $42.41, and $42.58 (2 significant prior troughs) and $42.52 (200 day EMA) represent the most likely resistance, so if Oil gets up to $42.50 then I’m going to heavily short Oil. [I did add to my DWTI position this morning at the $118.21 price point]
Do you think we have just arrived at the “feel good Friday” Oil nostalgia short-term top?
I’m expecting Oil to start pulling back next week as there are no real reasons for Oil to be up knocking on $42.50 again. However, if there was a close in Oil in the $43-$44 zone then it could run a few buck higher. Your thoughts?
As for a target that Oil may pull back to: The prior trough at 34.53, the minor peak at $34.82. and the 50 day EMA at $34.59 seem like good first layer of support. So the mid-$34.50ish range seems like a good spot to take profits on a short. I believe you posted yesterday that you saw similar support in that area. Correct?”
Here’s a chart that shows the recent peaks and troughs of significance:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24WTIC&p=D&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&id=p65393873743
I was hoping for a correction to around 34.50 but it ended at 36. Oil is looking quite strong and doing only minor corrections. It looks like the next correction might only make it to 38. We just had a mini correction down to 39.60 only and it looks like it will still turn up. The Vix may be close to a bottom. The market could still head higher to near 2080 max but will need to correct to the 1930 to 1950 area.
Forgot to mention. I think it will top near 42.50 unless some more positive news comes out that could drive it to 45.
Thanks Paul for your thoughts. It sounds like we are in pretty close agreement then because I was looking for $42.50 to be the top as mentioned, and I did short Oil this morning when it hit $42.40 and got into DWTI at $118.21. DWTI made it up to $129.73 earlier and has pulled back to $126, so it does look like today may have been the short-term top in OIl.
I guess I’ll be extra careful around the $38 Oil level then as that could be the bottom, but I’m still looking at that $34.53-$34.82 zone of congestion as the Oil pullback target.
As for Volatility, I agree and even though it seems unpopular to doubt this rise in the general stock markets, things have been too smooth, too complacent, and no real news flow other than the Fed.
Personally, I added just a smidgen more TVIX at $5.32 this morning to keep building the position. Now if the Stock market explodes to the upside this will be painful, but I’m expecting next week to be much more choppy and less complacent, and the Oil rally is getting long in the tooth at this point.
The oil rally won’t last, and we could see panic selling to $32/barrel
By Lawrence Lewitinn – (features Bill Baruch, chief market strategist at iiTrader)
“….The technicals are also pointing to lower crude prices, according to Baruch. Despite high prices for 2016, oil has moved relatively sideways all month and broke below an uptrend line. He sees further resistance at its 200-day moving average, near $42.80 per barrel. If oil fails to break above that average and instead falls below the 100-day moving average, “you’re going to start to see a lot of selling that comes from there,” Baruch predicted.
To add insult to injury, crude’s relative strength index (RSI), which measures a contract’s up days versus its down days, is near an elevated reading of 70.
“This is an overbought technical that says the market is going to have to retreat,” Baruch said.
“There’s a good 15% to 20% move down from here once this exuberance from the weaker dollar gets moved aside,” he added. “If the market gets below some of these levels around $37 to $36 in the May contract, you’re going to see panic selling that brings this thing back down to $32. So that’s what we’re looking at, depending how it plays out over the next week or two.”
Thank you Shad. Good article and I agree with it. Looks like WTI peaked today around 42.50 just as you were discussing yesterday so your instincts were on the mark again. We still need a little push lower for my liking but that looks like it will come after hours now.
Thanks. We’ll have to see how the markets react next week as Martin Armstrong was expecting a run to $45-$49. It just seemed there would be a lot of congestion around $42.50 and when it got close this morning I jumped on DWTI. That traded ended the day positive, and grew a little in after-hours trading, but I didn’t sell and held over the weekend because if Oil drops down a few bucks, that ETF can move up in a big way.
Technicals aside, I don’t any reason for Oil to have climbed back to $42.50 and most of the short-cover rally is getting exhausted here. We’ll see how next week goes…
I think someone posted yesterday on Armstrongs projection. Was he saying a drop to 38 first and then swing back to 45 or something like that? There were a lot of conditions in that forecast though so you still have to play it by ear. Nothing is written in stone yet. I think if what he is saying comes to pass then a bullish rising channel will be created that traders can start to play off. If he is wrong we should see a retest of the lows.
Here was that Armstrong piece again. I believe his thought are contingent on Oil closing above $34.69 in the month of March, and then he saw $45-$49 as first resistance, but then a 3 month rally that may reach $69-$70. That is a little too bullish for my tastes and outlook.
___________________________________________________________________________
Crude Update March 16th, 2016 – Armstrong
On Friday we elected the Weekly Bullish Reversal we had at 38.40. Crude pulled back for two days marginally to try to retest the previous reversal at at 32.40. We have now gaped up and the major Weekly Bullish Reversals we have warned about stand up at the $45 level. We are in this period we warned about that the 1st quarter would have to try the souls of most traders. It has been March and May as key targets in time and April has been a panic cycle in many markets as well. Here the low is in February, not last December. If we at least close March above the February high of 34.69, then we have a shot of more than a one-month knee-jerk reaction high. Then we can look for a possible 3 month rally into May. The two primary target at the $45 and $49 level. That has to be exceeded to hope for an rally to reach the formidable resistance zone in the $69-$70 area.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/crude-update-march-16th-2016/
I guess if the US Dollar did crash and burn, it would cause inflation in all the commodities, so maybe that is the rationalization.
Still the prettiest pig in the barnyard, Excelsior!
Yes, to clarify, I wasn’t saying the dollar was going to crash, but there have always been those that are waiting for that. My point was that for Oil to surge to $70 like Martin Armstrong believes, it would take a major sell-off in the USD to allow that kind of rise. Personally, I just don’t see Oil at $70 any time soon. I think a range of the $30s-$50s seems most reasonable.
I posted an article from Bill Baruch at iiTrader earlier this week, and he called $40 Oil the “new $60 Oil”. Basically where we are at is going to be the new normal for a while, and this will be the last nail in the coffin for a lot of the over-leveraged companies, or non-economic companies below $50 Oil. When they all capsize, then supply will diminish and prices can rise once the huge oversupply glut has been digested.
Remember when Armstrong said gold would go below $1000 sometime between 9/2015 and 3/2016?
He later said that the low would most likely be in April ’16 if gold finished 2015 below $1184. Well it finished over $120 lower than that so is he standing by his call that the low will be in April?
I’ve said for the last couple of years that his role is to keep his followers out and it seems he’s done a good job.
Al, not anymore. The yen is now a much prettier pig and even the euro pig and Loonie piglet look better at this point.
You really think so, Matthew?
Matthew – I tend to agree, and should further clarify that I’m not a big Martin Armstrong fan. I don’t think he’s a buffoon, but he’s been off on his calls much more often than his die-hard supporters like to mention.
Obviously, I bet against his prognostication of surging oil prices by shorting Oil at $42.40 since my technical analysis led me to believe that was a congestion zone and I expect a pull back to the intra-day low for Oil of $37.74 on Tuesday March 15th.
If that level right below $38 Oil breaks, then it may drop to the $34.53-$34.82 congestion zone.
That’s just my trading thesis. I’m willing to admit I could have my tail-end handed to me on a platter if Oil jumps to $45-$49 like Martin Armstrong targeted. If Oil breaches $43.46 then I’d sell that short position at a loss and lick my wounds.
Also, some of those other currency piglets are looking a little better like you mentioned 🙂
No, he’s definitely not a buffoon. He’s probably been dead-on for a special few and purposely wrong for those who only read his free stuff. Those who buy his reports probably get their money’s worth but not much more. ($500? lol)
It’s like the “Alert Service” that some newsletter writers offer for five times what the lower subs pay — the lower subs get Alert Service picks only after the Alert Service subs have taken their positions.
Yes, that’s a very good point about the alert services. After other traders find out about them most of the move has happened already. Makes sense, otherwise why would you want to pay them, but I guess I’m looking at many of these “pundits” mid-term directional calls and often I find it better to digest their opinions, get an overall feel for peoples projections, and then boil it down to the charts I’m watching and do my own thing (with as much information as needed to push the buy or sell button).
It does make me nervous when my decision is at odds with pundits that have a fairly good track-record, but any day one takes a trade, there’s always another camp that expects just the opposite to happen. Comes with the territory and human nature to look at things differently.
I definitely appreciate your feedback Matthew, and get just as many good ideas, warnings, or confirmations on the KER blog, that I do listening and reading a million editorials each day.
Cheers!
The ECB and John Law. Well worth a read…
Thanks Andrew………..great read…….History will repeat for sure.
12% DUST, 14% NUGT, 7% UWTI this week.
Yes nice read but there is no timeline. Will it happen one year from now or ten? I recall reading similar articles in 2008 and yet here we are seven years later waiting got the collapse.
Does anybody have a suggestion about First Mining?
The management is buying LOTS of profitable mines at VERY low costs yet it is not partecipating to this upleg in PM.
Could be a good idea to take advantege of this low price?