Can Gold close above the downtrend line on the monthly chart?
Today with Craig Hemke, from TFMetalsReport.com we take a look at the monthly gold chart. There has been a downtrend line in place since 2011 that gold is finally threatening to break. This would be significant for technical traders and combined with a seasonally good period for gold could bring in some more buying.
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Here is the chart…
to create a trend line you need two reference points so the date is not 2011 but the second monthly high in 2012 .I thought it was a chart of the Japanese Yen as gold and yen trade together so we will need a stronger Yen to breakout. silver broke out on the monthly chart back in April leaving $16 behind. of course Turd will blame manipulation if the breakout fails…geeesh!!
I know there is no such thing as manipulation in the gold market, I am one of the turds…wells fargo is opening up millions of false accounts, banks caught manipulating libor, banks stuffing sh%t into subprime mortgages for their own clients to buy, several banks already paying fines for being found guilty of forex fraud, and in hft and spoofing…and Enron, Madoff, and on and on an on infinity
but somehow gold could never ever be manipulated
good gosh how niave and stupid can some people be
Criminality is a pigment of your imagination James.
I think I may have mentioned a time or two that this stuff is criminal from top to bottom.
I only keep what I can have stolen without concern in my trading account for example.
More than that is plain foolish as far as Im concerned.
I forget, was it MF Global, Ann Bernhart? a few others I believe have been saying as much.
Bitcoin too, millions stolen.
Phyzz, If you dont hold it you dont own it.
Digits on a screen are just that, digits on a screen.
james my portfolio of gold and silver miners are up over 200% in 2016 so manipulation works for me!
Here’s the beginning of Turd’s downward trend…
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/170246#comment-170246
He’s been making stuff up as he goes along for years now. Most people realized it long ago and left.
Anyone recall the totally (and admittedly) fabricated B.S. that Turd tried pulling on his followers following the silver May massacre?
(H)ot, (E)xplosive, (H)istoric…..anyone recall that completely fabricated nonsense?
“Low E”
By Turd Ferguson | Friday, January 4, 2013 at 12:42 pm
As a middle-aged American male, I’m told by my television that I should be concerned about “Low T”…Big Pharma slang for low testosterone. So far, so good on that one (as MrsF will attest wink). A much bigger problem right now is “Low E”…Turd slang for low enthusiasm.
Maybe tomorrow I’ll write a post that discusses the MOPE and crap of yesterday. That The Fed can/will end QE as soon as later this year is so nonsensical that it doesn’t deserve logical refutation.
Maybe tomorrow I’ll write a post that discusses the latest BLSBS, replete with buried statistics and mentions of participation rates and seasonal adjustments.
Maybe tomorrow I’ll write a post that includes a bunch of charts with lines drawn all over them, showing where price might stop and reverse.
For now, I only want to write about the one thing that bothered me the entire time I was on vacation…the CFTC.
You see, here’s the problem: I’d like to have hope. I see things. I talk to people. I read a lot. And I think. All of this leads me to the conclusions I espouse here. Namely, that the end of The Great Keynesian Experiment is upon us and we all need to prepare accordingly. The politicians are all corrupt. The U.S., and the world for that matter, is ruled in favor of the very few, particularly the international bankers. The global economic system is about to collapse and morph into something completely different from what we’ve all known our entire lifetimes.
But, I’d like to have hope. Hope that I’m wrong. Hope that I simply have an overactive imagination. Hope that I am just channeling Russell Crowe playing John Nash, seeing clearly nothing but make-believe conspiracies and foolishly connecting the dots.
But the problem is…the CFTC. There the illusion and hope unravels.
You’ll surely ask me how I know and I’ll say “I don’t”. So, don’t bother. I have no proof. Only faith and trust which could also be misplaced. But I am entirely confident that the CFTC has been given, all wrapped up in a neat little package, everything they need to prove, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that the metals markets are wholly and entirely manipulated for the gain of a few bullion banks. Instead of acting promptly, to restore order and confidence in “free and fair markets”, they dawdle. They stall. They issue no statements. They conclude no investigations. And, most importantly, they allow the crime to continue as if nothing has changed. Only now they are accomplices, to the point of being co-conspirators.
And this is the problem. Hope is gone. Not that the CFTC was some hoped-for, last bastion of integrity. That’s not it at all. They are, instead, the proverbial “straw that broke my back”. Because now that I know that the CFTC is negligent and corrupt and only serving to protect and defend their TBTF overlords, my hope is gone. And, again, I’m not talking about hope for a resolution to the metals manipulation, I’m talking about hope that the entire western political and economic system really isn’t as corrupt and narcissistic as it seems. For it’s impossible not to reach the following conclusion:
The CFTC is protecting a major TBTF, Fed primary dealer by refusing to acknowledge the manipulation.
If this one, government bureaucracy is in the back-pocket of the banks, all of the rest likely are, too.
And if all of the agencies are in the back-pocket of the banks, then the politicians are, too, because most of the bureaucrats are political appointees.
And if all of the politicians are in the the back-pocket of the banks, then the entire political system is a sham. There are no elections. It’s all just an illusion designed to mollify the masses.
And if that’s the case, what kind of world do we really live in?
So, you can see my problem here. I suffer from “Low E”. Why bother to write about all of the day-to-day stuff? Why mark up all my silly charts? Once hope is gone, soldiering on can get pretty challenging. Perhaps I can draw renewed inspiration from the idea of “awakening the masses”. Logic suggests that only by operating within the matrix can you reach those still contained therein. But I don’t know. I really don’t. Inevitably, the first question is: Why try at all?
Let me work on that for a while and I’ll get back to you soon. Maybe tomorrow.
TF
Junior silver miners are set to outperform not only major producers of the precious metal, but also all gold miners over the coming years to 2020, according to a new analysis from BMI Research.
By looking at a selection of companies included in BMI’s newly published outlook for mining stocks— such as Tahoe Resources and KGHM Polska — the research firm states that as commodity prices improve, those who invested in smaller silver miners and embraced the illiquidity risk associated with their shares will be rewarded.
Investors who took on the higher illiquidity risk on top of the risks associated with smaller companies by investing in junior silver miners will be rewarded now, says BMI.
“Shares of silver mining companies are more thinly traded, being exchanged in lower volumes and with a limited number of interested buyers and sellers,” it says.
“This illiquidity often leads to volatile changes in price when transactional activities increase, as a new dollar invested in the silver market has a much greater effect on the price than the gold market,” the report adds.
BMI bases its assertions on a couple of facts and one theory:
Fact 1: Juniors usually recorded a smaller decrease in net income than larger companies in 2015. For example, while Tahoe Resources registered -179.2% of net income growth in 2015, KGHM Polska registered -304.6%.
Fact 2: In the past few months of rising commodity prices, junior miners’ equities have been outperforming the majors.
Theory: The small cap premium theory indicates that stocks with low market capitalisations can be expected to earn higher returns than stocks with higher market capitalizations during bull markets.
Junior Silver Miners To Continue Outperforming
Following the footsteps of small silver miners, their gold counterparts are also expected to outperform large cap miners when it comes to share prices and financial health. In 2015, for example, Kinross Gold’s registered -15.7% of net income growth, while GoldCorp registered -92.4%.
By forecasting an annual average of $1,500 an ounce by 2020, BMI predicts higher returns for investors who buy into smaller gold companies that carry a lot of risk. “Junior miners and explorers bear the major costs and risks associated with discovering and developing new economically-viable gold deposits,” they say. “Larger gold miners rely on exploration and development by juniors extensively, constantly acquiring them at a speed faster than acquisitions of other junior metals miners, buying their projects or partnering with them for development.”
To provide a better understanding of early stage companies with market capitalization of less than US$10bn, the firm outlined their main characteristics:
BMI Research’s small companies. August 24, 2016
Great article B – Much appreciated! There were many great quotes in it:
“Junior silver miners are set to outperform not only major producers of the precious metal, but also all gold miners over the coming years to 2020,”
“Investors who took on the higher illiquidity risk on top of the risks associated with smaller companies by investing in junior silver miners will be rewarded now, says BMI.”
“The small cap premium theory indicates that stocks with low market capitalizations can be expected to earn higher returns than stocks with higher market capitalizations during bull markets.”
“In the past few months of rising commodity prices, junior miners’ equities have been outperforming the majors.”
_________________________________________________________________________
This has been the exact reason that being “selective’ with the JR miners has allowed many of us to have returns that outperformed in a major way just throwing darts at the Kitco list (mostly the larger household names that lagged in performance for all the reasons just mentioned in this article).
If investors want to just buy the Kitco lists, then the safest way to do so is just buy the ETFs GDX, GDXJ, SGDM, SGDJ. There are a few more unique smaller JR companies featured in the funds GOEX, TGLDX, or USERX.
*However, for those willing to do the work and research to truly analyze companies for out-sized gains, then being “selective” with these small “early stage companies with market capitalization of less than US$10bn” that this article mentions is the key.
To do that, often one must look for companies that are NOT on the Kitco list, and not in the ETFs and Funds; but they definitely shouldn’t just throw darts to find them (and likely won’t because there very few places where they’ve all been gathered together).
Luckily, the sharp contributors here on the KER review a number of these undervalued or unknown companies here quite regularly.
That is why so many of us blew the doors off the returns of ETFs and Funds by being positioned in these smaller market cap companies, that are off the radar of most investors.
For ideas on some of these companies go back and check the last 2 weekend shows for those TARGETED lists in each sub-sector. I guarantee you’ll find some companies you’ve never even heard of to check out.
I’d steer clear of the jumbled eyesore mashup of multiple sectors that was posted in Rick A’s editorial today, as they are just a trainwreck, not filtered or grouped in any discernible fashion, and thus not an efficient way to research this topic.
Good luck to everyone in their investing, and if you have a small unloved or undervalued Jr miner that seems like a good opportunity – don’t keep it a secret 🙂
Excalibur resources- on the Toronto exchange. A really small streaming companyvin it’s infancy. One of the sprott resource symposium lecturers suggested it as a recommendation (i can’t remember who).
By the way Excelsior, thanks for sticking with the forum. I really value your commentary.
Thanks Nick. I was starting to think the problem would not ever get addressed, but once I saw the news that site had FINALLY been cleaned up, then my reason for leaving was lifted, and the blog’s future seemed less dim.
I’m not familiar with Excalibur Resources but will check them out and add them to the streaming list.
Just to return the favor, I mentioned Marlin Gold mining on the KER show a few times and posted their corporate presentation from Beaver Creek Precious Metals Summit on the Weekend show.
The quick blurb is that Marlin Gold has a currently Producing mine, a gold mine development project, AND ownership of Sailfish Royalty company with streaming deal with Golden Reign, and NSR on the Kootenay Silver Project, and Endeavour’s next Silver project. The other thing is that insiders hold almost all the available stock. I’ve never seen anything like it. I guess their plan is to dilute their stake over time by acquiring more streams and royalties, and more gold mine acquisitions. The plan is to eventually spin out the royalty company and keep a partial stake in it.
I wasn’t aware of any other small company doing streaming deals until an investor I respect a great deal pointed out Marling Gold to me, so just passing it along.
There is David Morgan’s new Lemurian Royalties – that may do a combination of both royalties and streams, but I believe it is still a private company.
I’ll have to check out Excalibur Resources and do some homework on it, but thanks so much for the heads up on it.
Nick – Thanks again for the heads up on Excalibur Resources. Just at quick glance it looks like they are still on the very front end of getting things ramped up with their streaming company. You did mention that they are in their infancy though, and yes, I’ll definitely keep an eye on their progress.
Most of their August Corporate Presentation is still discussing the value of the Streaming Business model (which I’m sold on as a good strategy), but I’d to see how they build up their portfolio of streams and royalties over time.
EXCALIBUR UPDATE ON PERU GOLD STREAM
August 05, 2016
Looks like they are going to be changing their name in the near future:
EXCALIBUR CLOSES ACQUISITION OF HIGH STREAM CORP AND PROPOSES NAME CHANGE TO METALLA ROYALTY AND STREAMING LTD.
September 01, 2016
oops, didnt show the aug 24 list.
It’s fine, you more than compensated with your unfiltered, non-specific, and non-targeted lists of hundreds of companies on Rick A’s blog today.
Thanks for your contributions.
Put them in order shad,
ones that have copper/tin
manganese/tin
silver/lead
etc etc
however you want, just make lists.
Thanks for your permission B. Yes sir!
B – Let’s make a deal.
I’ll keep posting about the topic of this site – Investing in resource companies in the raw materials and energy sectors, if you’ll keep wowing us with posts about slavery, the benefits of socialism, and how you like to go down to the coin store and buy gold rounds.
Oh, if you’d keep updating us on how terrible the USA is constantly that would be great!
Please just don’t use anything invented in the USA to post those responses with….which is pretty much most of what exists today in the modern tech world.
I wouldn’t want you to take advantage of the terrible country that is the USA or get mixed up in the nefarious things that came from the USA….. so please stop driving automobiles, flying in airplanes, or utilizing satellite coverage on your smartphone, or utilizing your internet connection to speak to us.
That way you can have a clean conscious.
Deal?
Those who can’t view a monthly chart can rest assured that it looks great.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=M&yr=17&mn=3&dy=22&id=p37018891870&a=473303339
Live gold price.org
http://goldprice.org/live-gold-prices.html
One of a few options.
Silver closed at $20.37 on the SGE.
If you had 10 different technical analysts they would all draw the lines on the charts in a different place. Each of them would say that the others are doing it all wrong.
I took profits today on ASM (mining), NUGT (mining), MRO, and UWTI. Only netted $67 but profit is profit. Doubled down on DUST today and DWTI just before the closing ding dong.
$TED rose higher again on declines in $IRX. We are ‘as high’ in the $TED as we were in the last 10% correction in the markets.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24TED&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p83433609267&a=410205553
If you are wondering why Pt and Pd have been out-performing in the last few days. Shipments from S. Africa are down, and there is talk of more unrest in the mines…..hard to believe another strike possible just yet, but I would not bet against it!
Great point CFS. Rhodium is actually up the most on a percentage basis, followed by Palladium, and then Platinum.
Silver 19.86 +0.05
Platinum 1055.00 +5.00
Palladium 693.00 +10.00
Rhodium 635.00 +10.00
Yes, I was hoping there would be a break from the constant circus with labor union strikes in S. Africa, but like you said ” I would not bet against it! “
We are all ants having a discussion on where the other ants on the ant hill are going to go next. Along comes a big boot….wham! We then talk about how the hill has lost support.
http://incakolanews.blogspot.com/search/label/technical%20analysis
Well, that’s one way of looking at it I guess….
Some of those graphics and knocks against TA are pretty funny though 🙂
Ex, that guy is an angry little Marxist. I’ve never come across one of those that can comprehend the value of technical analysis. This makes sense when you realize than logical, rational, and DECENT people are not Marxists.
*that not than
Yeah, as you know, I’m a big fan of technical analysis, but after reading articles, editorial, and thousands of charts there have been times where some of those spoofs outlined in that piece hit pretty close to home. Especially with Elliot wave.
A few of them just made me laugh is all. Laughing is always good.
I agree with you, I just don’t like that guy at all. He knows a thing or two about mining stock fundamentals but, other than that, he is ignorance personified.
I’ve seen his site referenced a few times, but never dug in deep on his ideology before. Thanks for heads up though, as I’ll make a note of his disposition.
I know Ex got it but I hope it was obvious that the Marxist I was referring to is at incakolanews – I was NOT talking about Paul W.
I have been reading his site for years and never thought he was a Marxist. There is a difference between going after capitalists and going after crony capitalists and corruption. I have always thought he does the latter. If you think about it, how could any Marxist really be involved in mining stocks or the stock market?
He knocks the common sense economics of the Austrian School (which he clearly does not understand) and has shown disdain for the (ethical) principles that clash with the (unethical) principles of the authoritarian, wealth-redistributing left. He digs the nanny state as long as it adheres to his ideas about what is right and has shown contempt for those who place individual rights superior to those of the collective.
The left (collectivists which include socialists, communists and fascists) is made of nothing but hypocrisy and inconsistent thinking so it is ridiculous to think that its members would not be involved in mining stocks or the stock market.
Once you understand the guiding principles of Marxism, then you understand that you can discard the definition found in most dictionaries and textbooks for it is a smokescreen.
If we cut through the illusions, we find that Marx’s ten planks of the communist manifesto have been implemented in varying degrees and in various ways all over the world – including the U.S.A.
Thanks CFS.
It would be great to get Michael Belkin back on the KER sometime. Very sharp guy.
I second that. Belkin is smart!
Technical alert. The Black Swan pattern called the problems in 2008 with a 100% success rate.
http://bp1.blogger.com/_7Se7iswAanA/SEWX7Qn9U7I/AAAAAAAABBg/8GujvGLqqhg/s1600-h/black_swan.gif
+1
More like a Raging Bull pattern. Since when do black swans mark a low? 😐
Touche’
(ha, ha, ha – excellent point)
One could say that often the Black Swans cause people to seek the safety of Gold.
Maybe we aren’t in a Bull or a Bear market. Maybe we are in a Swan market?
Oh my god… thats a classic.
I am yanking the TA guys chain a bit but sometimes I can’t resist. I am a contrarian. I really do value technicals when it comes to sentiment and timing an entry or exit point but trading on pure chart patterns without knowing the fundamental of a company or knowing the big picture is far too simplistic. Just to be clear, I don’t think Craig (Turd) is in this camp so my kidding today wasn’t specifically pointed at him.
The best TA people I find always have one eye on the fundamentals and aren’t afraid to go against the herd. I found Gary Savage was great at this and really miss his input. Bob Moriarty is not really a chartist or technical trader but it is always great to hear his comments about the herd. Whenever he calls for a turn, I listen.
Those are some solid points Paul W and I agree with a number of things you said.
I do still go regularly check out what Gary S. has to say on his site. He has an interesting video up now on what he thinks will play out with Gold, but we agreed not to post his material on here on KER. It is recommended to check out though.
As for Bob Moriarty – agreed, he is very good at calling turns in the market, and while he wouldn’t describe himself as a technician, he’s pretty sharp with it, and has a number of technicians he showcases on his site.
+1 Bring back the Savage!
Al decided Gary was only using the site to advertise for subscriptions if I recall.
So, bye bye Gary.
Gary has a site , no need for Gary here. You can tune in,get what you need in 5-10 min then return here for some meat and potatoes info.
point taken, but I do like a little “cycles theory” thrown in to bring a different take on things. He was also right way back when everyone was pooing all over him. If he really was doing too much self promo, I get Al’s call.
I gave Gary credit for his double bottom call, in December and I do think he has some great info, his Guru rating was 47%…
Agreed OOTB. GS still just a great job of over-viewing his cycles theory and posts charts and videos over at his site regularly. I still take great delight in listening to his voice when he gets on a rant…”Just like they do every time, everyone is on the wrong side of the boat……..” Always makes me laugh.
He does a fantastic job of unpacking his case and giving the technical evidence for his thesis, so I’m always willing to consider his perspective.
At least Big Owl is consistent .and been here for a looooooong time.
If people are goi g to start talking about their portfolios then state what you have.
Otherwise it’s all bs
When I biy or sell something I declare. I don’t have to.
I don’t owe anyone anything. But if I am going to make calls then I declare.
Jr. your portfolio is up 200% for 2016?
Tell us what it is, otherwise it means nothing.
Anyone can say anything.
You sound like a newbie
james my point was really directed at manipulation as we never hear it as our pm stocks reach for the sky yet as they pause or fall manipulation is the excuse…my portfolio winners were BTO…IPT…MUX but regardless of what I own try and find a silver gold miner that isnt up 200%+++ in 2016…heck if you havent had a fantastic year owning the miners you really our clueless and should be trading something else or in all honesty nothing!
ur right James, Im in and out of a few of them.
Thats why I rarely mention what I have, half the time they lose anyway. lol
Over three years ago I identified $1340 as the CRUCIAL KEY LEVEL that the gold battle would take place.
Anyone who has been paying attention knows I’ve been repeating this price all these many months.
I said repeatedly gold must take out and hold this level.
Using Numerical Analysis and Extrapolation I landed on this price long before it was on anyone’s radar screen.
In an honest market we should blow right by this level, given the FED, BOJ and ECB policies in place.
However the market is capped at this level.
Just yesterday I said it was now or never.
This is why my grading system is so important
right now as you know gold is a “d” and silver is an “f”
people don’t want to hear it, but it is very objective and accurate
we need to take out this level.
if we don’t gold sinks, if we do there isn’t much between now and $1800
cross your fingers and root it in
and may these #$%$# manipulating it at this level be fed to the lions