Technical and fundamentals comments on the USD and S&P
Today with Rick we focus on the more high level charts of the US Dollar and the S&P 500. Rick shares his technical outlook but also dives into some fundamental reasons for the Dollar moving higher and the S&P moving lower.
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Very possible Professor.
I, for one, simply don’t understand how this game of musical chairs can continue. What is your opinion?
The irony woukd be that the low volatility assets in a mania will now become the high volatility assets in a rout.
Mr. Big Al Korelin,
Please be careful with what you say in this blog and everywhere else for that matter.
I am afraid when Hitlery wins she will be going after people with a vengeance. No telling what may happen…an out of the blue IRS audit…or much worse.
And Bill will again have all the gooberment’s power at his disposal to destroy anyone he didn’t destroy when he was pres. Just look at the criminal…would you put anything past a person like this????
Clinton refuses to speak to his son…
http://www.infowars.com/banished-the-untold-story-of-danney-williams-search-for-his-father/
I don’t know. The manipulation level on many markets is getting higher every year.
I don’t believe fundamentals hold except over the long term.
I worry about the stability of the whole system.
The number of times I see intervention in front of some news breaking out, or when certain markets are closed gets more and more often.
Bad political news now only comes out at about 4p.m. on a Friday.
If bad news has come out over- night, then the stock market will get kicked up by large volume right at the opening.
Large movement in precious metals tend to happen only when New York is closed.
What really worries me is that high speed trading might create an instability that blows up some market. I know there are circuit-breakers that are supposed to stop that from happening, but I still worry.
DEFLATIONARY DEATH SPIRAL IS COMING!
2016 = 2+0+1+6 = 9
9 is the highest number in the universe, therefore stocks ha e hit their all time highs.
If you take the 2, then take 2+6 you get 8, plus the 9 and add the 1 you get
289+1 which is 290
The 290th day of the year is next Monday October17th.
NEXT MONDAY IS BLACK MONDAY
PREPARE FOR A STOCK MARKET CRASH.
This has been planned for years.
Also if you listen to the Beatles White Album backwards you will hear number 9 repeated over and over again.
The Beatles were trying to warn us!
It’s a deflationary death spiral!
Call up your gold and silver dealer, they will gladly sell you all the gold and silver you want so save you from this economic storm!
Don’t worry if the premiums are high, they promise too buy it back from you at a discount!
Of course, anything is possible James. I, for one, don’t agree regarding a crash this coming Monday.
I also don’t put a lot of credence in The Beatles. Great musicians, but economic experts, certainly not!
What do the Beachboys, Bob Dylan, and the Rolling Stones have to say? Get them on the Weekend Show, Big Al!
Mick Jagger went to the London School of Economics. Let’s hear what he thinks about gold, stocks, and Brexit.
I did not know that,thanks Bonzo
Funny Bonzo Barzini.
Excesior, I’m serious. Mick Jagger did go to the London School of Economics.
Years ago a friend of mine served Mick a dinner. The tab was large, the tip was nil. Mick is full of him self. ( good performer, goofball )
Bonzo – I thought asking Mick Jagger to come on the show to discuss Gold & Stocks was funny. I also thought it was funny to ask the Beach Boys & Bob Dylan what they think. Does Bob Dylan even know what planet he’s on any more? (lol)
I got a laff James, Oct 17 eh?
I always new there was hidden messages in those pot smoken, meditaten, long haired hippie type music makers songs.
They are from England and the queen did knight them and everyone knows she is totally spooky.
Ya ever see that woman without make up? really spooky.
The dollar is a buy on the weekly chart but I will be surprised if it can break through its downtrend resistance which is about 1.5% above the current level.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=W&yr=3&mn=9&dy=0&id=p61448357603&a=480294658
The CRB broke its four month downtrend resistance yesterday:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CRB&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p79724867172&a=462466862
Thanks for the input, Matthew!
“The CRB broke its four month downtrend resistance yesterday”
I like that,thanks,Matthew
Apparently “Stuff” is on the rise…….
Both gold and commodities in general are up more than 20% this year which shows that the dollar’s strength has been relative to other currencies and not real.
+1
You can’t make this crap up!
Once again another FED head gives a speech in no less tha Sydney Australia
Nice work if you can get it!
SYDNEY, Oct 11 (Reuters) – Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans said on Tuesday he “could be fine” with raising U.S. interest rates in December, but he would prefer to see how the economy and inflation progressed before deciding.
Speaking to media after a speech in Sydney, Evans said the U.S. economy was on a solid footing and last week’s payrolls report was a “pretty good number”, so a hike in December would not be a surprise.
However, he cautioned that it might be better to allow inflation to rise closer to the Fed’s 2 percent target before moving on policy.
We might raise, we could raise, but we won’t raise, but we might
More data
We must see more data
Eight years of data wasn’t enough
We must see more data
All they do is go all over the world on our dime and talk out of both sides of their mouth
Economic Twilight Zone
James, never forget the Federal Reserve is a PRIVATE Bank.
They can do whatever they want.
It’s all gravy train. And if they make too much, they have to return some to the Treasury.
You think that causes them to be efficient!
So if Rick’s 113 dollar becomes reality, then why didn’t he discus golds drop to his old long term sub 900$ mark? Won’t that happen if the dollar rockets to that level? The gold bugs will be wiped out. This is NOT looking good. I still can’t imagine the dollar going up much here. I must be confused or something;}
He’s actually bullish both gold and the dollar. I also maintain that if the bulls are right about the dollar and I am wrong, gold will still be fine. In other words, the dollar will continue to fall in real terms even if it rises versus other currencies.
Yeup. I see no reason why both Gold and the USD couldn’t rise relative to other currencies in tandem.
The Beatles know a lot above money, they sang “Can’t buy me love” “Money” and “Tax Man”
The Stones know a lot about money too they sang “Satisfaction” and “You can’t Always get what you want”
and Led Zep knew a lot too they sang “buying a stair way to heaven”
Sad truth is they know ore than 90% of the other hucksters and scammer out there
If Clinton that Jezebel really is plus 11 how come stocks aren’t soaring?
Good point.
Rick called for $850 gold and 120 $
I called him out on it and many people said I was wrong.
Now he is 113 $ and yes gold would go sub $900
If the price moves in his favor he will take credi, otherwise he takes it once step at a time.
Very convenient
He always takes it one step at a time and is very clear about what he is saying.
Gold is not going to $900 even if the dollar goes to 120.
I could be wrong, but it seems impossible for gold to implode when negative interest rates engulf most of the world. It’s going to be an interesting few months here. I have my Depends “adult undergarments” at the ready!
I agree confused. With the negative rate environment, it will be difficult for Gold to simply implode. Pull back….yes….. fall out of bed to $800-$900 not as likely…..
Stewart Thomson has it right:
“The bottom line is that with the exception of China, governments around the world have done nothing for Main Street while central banks have provided gargantuan stimulus to financial assets. That’s about to change, and the change is incredibly inflationary.”
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/thomson_s/thomson_s_101116.html
Matthew, I FED to agree with you regarding gold.
Both the $ and gold could move up together.
Well will see , you never know
S/b be “tend” not FED
Nice elephant in the room…..
Yes gold and the $ could move up together. But right now they aren’t.
I believe last weeks exodus from the gold and silver markets, which are continuing into this week was an early shot across the bow.
Something big and nasty is coming our way and the smash in g and s signaled it.
A Deutsche Bank failure, a war, who knows?
This is October and anything can happen
Next Monday could be Black Monday
Until things reverse stick with the trend.
Both bonds and stocks are leaving
Alcoa is getting crushed
This week we could see some PPT to patch the cracked bit watch out next Monday!
Does anyone remember what happened the last time the Chicago Cubs won the World Series?
Well, I got the volatility pop I’ve been looking for.
I was starting to give up hope when I posted this chart yesterday:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p40022763124&a=481196869
I think this correction in the S&P 500 may have some legs. Say…top 5 in past 2.5 years.
If so, that could kick precious metals shares while they’re down. If so, we’d get fire sale prices.
have mine. I loose money again. Big fire at my house. stacoks are just paper gold.
With a bit of patience I think you’ll do fine.
Of course, I’ve suffered a lot for my patience, so what do I know? But things are looking up, in my eyes.
not looking up for me. look at 50 day M_AV on gold. I think it cross 200 in november and then we get death cross. you know about D Cross here?
Hi GH. I posted a Clive Maund article. I realize he’s been spot on and dead wrong and all over the map this year, but your comments on the S&P made me think about the chart the ole’ Cliver posted.
THE GROWING THREAT OF A DEFLATIONARY MELTDOWN AND A BIG DOLLAR RALLY…
Clive Maund – October 8th, 2016
Like you, I can’t resist reading Clive. He started the gold rally in excellent form, but turned bearish early, I believe. ‘Spot on and dead wrong’ — sounds like me, lol.
This article is interesting, but this part doesn’t quite resonate for me: “but not if we spiral into a deflationary meltdown, as we may be about to”.
Yes, of course, we may be about to…but I can’t think of why TPTB won’t produce the currency units necessary to float this thing for a while longer. Deutsch Bank? Then again, there may well come a moment when it falls apart, and at that moment, it would be best to be already prepared.
The dollar, I’m still expecting it to go down. Of course, that’s what I said last week, and it did the exact opposite. I’m still expecting it to turn down short of previous highs around 100.
His last chart, predicting a sharp fall in the $SPX does seem plausible, though maybe it will bounce around that first support, 2070-2090. But I guess I should wait for more solid confirmation of this breakdown before jumping to conclusions. There are lots of fakeouts.
The COT chart is impressive, to my novice eye. It’s eased very little, and is still very high relative to where it was last Dec. What does this imply?
Yes, I was just referencing the S&P 500 Head & Shoulders chart from the Clive article.
You had mentioned, “I think this correction in the S&P 500 may have some legs.”
It may have a head and shoulders along with those legs….. 🙂
Obviously if the S&P rolled over this fall, it would spike volatility was my other thought.
Big OWL thanks for mentioning.
Fitts has an interesting take on the Black budget(nothing to do with African-Americans). If The Pentagon can be find $6.5 trillion missing funds, where did it go .?
“Be”….some how got put in , this phone is possessed….
“Not ” missing
OOTB – did you happen to purchase the phone CFS was using before switching?
Black Budgets Matter!
Btw ….KER is the go to site, bar none …
+1
Agreed with Rick, hopefully deflation takes over from central bank criminal insanity. Long November VIX and waiting for a washout in silver to add more physical…
First Majestic is imploding at a faster rate than 2008 FWIW.
AG IS Dying. its dying. below last fib. I bought some before. My stocks down agin. Why talk stupid about dollar going down next to gold when gold and stocks both down? some people not making sense here. James said gold has a d but now he says up with dollar. more alcohol will help
Sorry if Excelsior already copied and pasted.Enjoyed my thanksgiving.GZZ and its subsidiaries.
http://thomcalandra.com/quebecs-emerging-minerals-masters/
Hey – I had not seen that latest from Thom Calandra on Abitibi Royalties and Golden Valley mines. Been swamped all day and just now catching up on everything.
Much appreciated Wolfster.
I always like Ricks picks, but 1.20 on the dollar just won’t happen. I can see the buck hitting,, a buck (1.00) and then doing a blowoff top.
Dollar 89 first. This is a trap.
Austin-Fitts is a scaremonger, who sells the Solari Letter. Since the EU is a mess, the Euro and the GPB should decline against the dollar. I find it hard to believe the Yen and the RMB will gain a great deal, which is what would be required for the dollar to fall.