Market Close for Tuesday
The biggest mover of the day was oil. Popping from lower support and moving up over 5%. We discuss what this markets looks like technically and the fundamental drivers. We also quickly touch on the US equity markets as well as the VIX.
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I got an email from Jim Sinclair yesterday calling for gold@125K. He certainly did make that call!
Posted at JSmineset – In Response to Federal Reserve & Clintons Doomed-Clif High
Posted November 15th, 2016 at 11:59 AM (CST) by Bill Holter & filed under Bill Holter.
In response to Federal Reserve & Clintons Doomed-Clif High
Posted November 14, 2016
Jim/Bill,
I can’t wrap my head around the housing call.
“In short, High says your home will go down in value while you are paying much more for supplies to live in it.”
If the cost of a front door or new siding approaches the cost of a home, wouldn’t the home price also rise?
Put another way, if the cost of a snickers bar approaches the cost of a home, wouldn’t that force the home price higher?
Unless, of course, the carry costs of the home (insurance, RE Taxes, utilities, etc.) become so onerous that home affordability drops.
Am I correct?
Another thing, the following flies above my head. No clue as to the reasoning.
“They are worried about the destruction of all of this debt by dollars pouring back into the U.S. The debt is actually being paid off by all this money coming back into the U.S. It’s not an actual increase of actual cash. It is a destruction of all the derivatives . . . It is debt destruction for sure. “
Any simplification?
Yours,
CIGA Wolfgang Rech
Wolfgang, I believe he speaks to the ability of others to purchase your home. It does not matter what it costs to build something if no one can afford to buy it…
Bill
Bill has explained it well. Might I add if your house is selling in dollars, what are they going to be worth?
Jim
The Dow is up close to 1,000 times since the 1896 low so what’s another 5 or 6 fold?
There have been a few people that were saying gold/dow will get to 1-1.
It was close for 1980.
http://www.macrotrends.net/1378/dow-to-gold-ratio-100-year-historical-chart
Meet Dr. Judy Shelton, Trump’s economic advisor, fan of Ron Paul and Sound Money
http://www.fourwinds10.net/siterun_data/government/elections/news.php?q=1479148126
Trump Economic Advisor Wants America to Go Back to Gold Standard
by Chris Matthews AUGUST 18, 2016
http://fortune.com/2016/08/18/trump-gold-standard-economic-advisor-woman-judy-shelton/
Good luck
Better do an AUDIT first…..
Dear US Mint, We Gave You The FOIA Funds, Now Give Us The Fort Knox Audit Documents!
Interim research update.
As readers might have saw on these pages, since 2014 I’ve been investigating the inventory audits of the US official gold reserves, which should proof the existence of the metal that embodies the credibility of the world reserve currency. My first article showed the official narrative: all the bars of in total 8,134 tonnes of gold spread over depositories at Fort Knox, West Point, Denver and New York, have been carefully counted, weighed, assayed and inventoried in between 1974 and 2008.
In subsequent posts I’ve exposed there is a vast array of problems to be found with the physical audits.
Thanks for the updated info.
I bet the mint director is afraid to reveal the truth .
Bolton considered for a post ,an insider
Same old faces
Sen. Rand Paul says neither Giuliani nor Bolton would get his vote for secretary of state
Paul argued that Giuliani and Bolton, the people whose names have circulated most widely, “have made it clear that they favor bombing Iran.” Choosing either for a key administration job, he said, would go back on the “America First” foreign policy that helped Trump win the Republican primaries, to the surprise of the Republican Party foreign-policy establishment.
Bolton is a loose cannon, imho
Despicable man, from what I’ve seen.
I agree
That stands out like a sore thumb!
Latest Short List For Trump Cabinet Positions – It’s A “Knife Fight”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-15/latest-trump-cabinet-short-list-its-knife-fight
Zero Hedge comments section –
Everybody write Trump’s team and tell them your displeasure about the suggestion that Bolton be involved in anything related to the government. Do it now….. visit https://apply.ptt.gov/yourstory/
Bob M, needs to look down the road, oil is not an important commodity anymore, The Saudis also don’t seem to see the future. Canada has a dead fish on it’s hands it’s called the Alberta tar sands. People are slow to accept the inevitable because most of us are programmed to like our surroundings and not what will change for us. DT
Japex postpones Oil Sands expansion project to mid-2017
Cecilia Jamasmie | Nov. 8, 2016
http://www.mining.com/japex-postpones-oil-sands-expansion-project-mid-2017/
I think you overstate. Tell me a commodity more important than oil, currently. Even if oil is supplanted by nuclear and renewables for energy, it will still be important for all the materials and chemicals which can be derived from it.
Tar sands, could be, as their energy return on energy invested is quite low.
Agreed GH. Oil does have many applications beyond the energy component and will be with us for some time. The West just won’t be held captive by OPEC and the Middle East moving forward.
Dan Tsubouchi: Three Themes to Change Your Energy Views
by @KeithSchaefer on November 15, 2016
https://www.ceo.ca/@keithschaefer/dan-tsubouchi-three-themes-to-change-your-energy-views
Uranium collapse signals 2020 positive supply shock: GoviEx CEO
Daniel Major | about 11 hours ago
“The spot uranium price has now fallen over 85% from its 2007 peak and is at a level not seen since mid-2004.”
“The uranium market is showing all the signs of a cyclical industry suffering a post-party hangover — except this was an all-weekend party session. However, there are indicators that negative factors influencing the industry will soon be removed, laying the groundwork for the return of a stronger market.”
“The one key factor that underpins any cyclical industry is demand. And the evidence is clear: there is robust future growth in nuclear energy. China and India are providing solid reactor build programs, the U.S. and Europe have come to realize that nuclear energy has to be part of a clean energy basket, and even Japan has indicated that reactor restarts are going to continue (albeit slowly)…”
http://www.mining.com/web/uranium-collapse-signals-2020-positive-supply-shock-goviex-ceo/
OPEC’s bearish report provides little hope for oil markets
Oilprice.com | about 13 hours ago
http://www.mining.com/web/opecs-bearish-report-provides-little-hope-for-oil-markets/
Can Trump really revive the U.S. Coal Industry?
2 days ago |By Gregory Brew for Oilprice.com
http://www.mining.com/web/can-trump-really-revive-the-u-s-coal-industry/
Dubai Agency to Build 250-MW Pumped-Storage Hydropower Project
November 15, 2016 – By Elizabeth Ingram
DT, I didn’t verify it but a few years ago, I read that petroleum has over 30,000 industrial applications while the runner-up commodity (silver) has over 10,000.
But even if we focus only on energy, oil is still the most important commodity and will be for a very long time.
Matthew, if you believe in driverless electric cars, oil won’t be an important commodity in five years. Nuclear energy might be but technology is moving so fast that they may not need a lot of new nuclear power plants. This world has so much technology that humans aren’t in the driver’s seat anymore. DT
“This world has so much technology that humans aren’t in the driver’s seat anymore.”
– DT
*DT – Apparently Olli is in the driver’s seat now…. 🙂
Olli: the 3D printed Self-Driving Minibus
“Meet Olli, a 3D printed minibus capable of transporting 12 passengers! The vehicle was unveiled by Arizona startup Local Motors outside of the US capital city, Washington. The electric, self driving shuttle was created in a partnership with IBM, using their Watson supercomputer.”
https://3dprintingindustry.com/news/olli-3d-printed-self-driving-mini-bus-82713/
October 2016 Plug-In Electric Vehicle Sales Report Card
2 weeks ago by Jay Cole
“Overall for 2016 a total of about 120,500 plug-ins have been sold, against ~92,330 sold in the first 10 month of 2015 – good for a gain of ~31%….”
http://insideevs.com/october-2016-plug-in-electric-vehicle-sales-report-card/
Tesla’s Future in Trump’s World
November 15, 2016 – By Tom Randall – Bloomberg
“1. Solar and wind subsidies are probably safe
2. Even without incentives, renewables will get cheaper
3. Gasoline fuel-efficiency targets could be dismantled
4. Electric vehicle incentives will expire on their own
5. States wield the power of their own incentives
6. Keystone’s resurrection won’t make gasoline cheaper”
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/articles/2016/11/tesla-s-future-in-trump-s-world.html
Hi Ex, do you know that the new wave of technology is replacing construction workers employed on high rise residential, commercial, or industrial buildings. That is all the work we have here, they have taken away almost everything else. I don’t want to alarm people but in Germany 25% of the mail is being delivered by driverless vehicles and robots who ride shotgun inside, in one year they are looking at tripling that capacity. DT
That’s the real issue with many of the jobs that have been lost. They weren’t just lost overseas, they were lost to robots, and those jobs are never coming back.
_____________________________________________________________________
Technology could kill 5 million jobs by 2020
by Ivana Kottasova
“Developments in artificial intelligence, robotics, and biotechnology, would disrupt the business world in a similar way to previous industrial revolutions, the World Economic Forum said in a report published Monday….”
http://money.cnn.com/2016/01/18/news/economy/job-losses-technology-five-million/
However, robot repair and technology jobs will at least grow (but not enough to offset the lost jobs of the worker bees)
http://static.srcdn.com/wp-content/uploads/total-recall-police-suit-factory-trailer.png
An artificial intelligence system takes control of a futuristic car manufacturing plant in this short movie by architectural film studio Factory Fifteen (movie).
But just wait until the robots get fat and lazy and sit home all day watching robot soap operas…
Then you have.. rowbutts
Matthew, do you own any oil stocks? I have lots of Royal Dutch Shell, XOM, DVN, SU, and CVX. I hope oil will be a good business for 20 years.
Warren Buffet just sold his 30 million shares in Suncor.
Bonzo, I do not right now but oil should do very well for the next twenty years now that it has most likely made a once-in-a-lifetime low.
Thanks, Matthew. Earlier this year Kyle Bass was pounding the table for oil stocks.
My RDS and XOM were bought in 1980 at less than $2 a share (after splitting 32 for 1 since then), so I’d hate to sell and have to pay taxes.
Congratulations on your wise investments and thanks for the bit about Bass. I was starting to think he was focused only on JGBs. 🙂
A very smart man, Bass.
You boys see this?
CNN Dem Strategist Mocks White Trump Supporter Beaten In Chicago
Paul Thompson, CEO of Mexus Gold US, Updates Listeners on Mexico Mining
Jasyn Blair – November 15, 2016
$TXG $TORXF Torex Gold: A Junior Miner Trading For Fire Sale Prices
Nov. 15, 2016 – Taylor Dart (3,659 followers – Seeking Alpha)
CANADIAN ZINC REPORTS RESULTS FOR THIRD QUARTER 2016 Vancouver, British Columbia, November 15, 2016 – $CZN $CZICF
Prairie Creek Optimization Projects Under Way
Positive Metallurgical Test Results from Newfoundland Deposits
http://www.canadianzinc.com/images/Docs/News_Releases/CZNNR20161115.pdf
In case you haven’t noticed……
Italy’s first bank starts a bail-in process.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-14/monte-paschi-begins-bondholer-bail-will-equitize-over-%E2%82%AC4-billion-junior-bonds
At least it is not nation-wide.
Spain is next in line to have problems!
If DeuscheBank goes, most of Europe banking will collapse.
Video Update: Gold Bull Market on Hold…?
11/15/2016 | Jordan Roy-Byrne CMT, MFTA
“Could the bull market in Gold & gold stocks be on hold for a little while? We discuss our medium term outlook in this 16 minute long video. ”
How Will Gold Trade in This ‘Twilight Zone’ – Marin Katusa
Nov 15, 2016 – Video Interview from Silver & Gold Summit
“There are several factors that has gold prices stuck in what Marin Katusa describes as a “twilight zone.” Founder of Katusa Research and one of the organizers behind the Silver & Gold Summit, Katusa told Kitco News that gold prices could move either way, even below $1,100 an ounce. The yellow metal has been under pressure since the U.S. election, hovering near the key support level of $1,200.”
Streamers or Miners? Where Are The Best Returns?
Nov 14, 2016 – Guest(s): Nolan Watson
$SSL $SAND Sandstorm CEO Nolan Watson & $MUX McEwen Mining CEO Rob McEwen went head-to-head at the Silver & Gold Summit, debating whether or not producers or streamers provide the best returns for investors.
Kitco News’ Daniela Cambone caught up with Watson following the debate to find out why he thinks investors shouldn’t given up on the sector. He remains optimistic on gold prices, calling any weakness just a “knee jerk reaction” to overblown optimism on the U.S. economy.
Gold: The Cost Of Production Is Near
Stewart Thomson – Nov 15, 2016
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/thomson_s/thomson_s_111516.html
COPPER CALLS GOLD BOTTOM ON TRUMPHORIA SURGE…
Clive Maund – November 13, 2016
Moriarty: There is More Opportunity Today Than There Has Ever Been in History
by Ceo Technician | Bob Moriarty – November 14, 2016
Interesting how Bob thinks silver is currently a buy,
But that gold is still expensive compared to other commodities,
I remember in a previous article he thought gold would next be a buy between 1150-1200 ?
Is that what you still think Bob M ?…always appreciate your thoughts.
Cheers.
For global Copper miners, era of going it alone may be over
Reuters – COMMODITIES | Wed Nov 16, 2016
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-cesco-copper-mining-idUSKBN13B0UZ
Bayhorse Silver (BHS) Reports On Drill Program, Bridging The Gap Project, Kellogg, Idaho, USA, And Files A National Instrument 43-101 Report
VANCOUVER, BC–(Marketwired – November 16, 2016)
The gold miners bullish percent index is lower now than it was in January:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BPGDM&p=W&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p20165789460&a=486723457
What a reversal from earlier in the year. I’ve been adding to positions throughout November, because the miners have been on clearance sale. Monday morning was a particularly good day to buy some shares that have already started recovering a bit.
What do you think of the analysis from some that we may stay down in the metals & miners for the next few months? Personally, I believe the institutional funds will be buying this weakness in miners and that they’ll take off first and lead the metals higher.
Here’s an interesting editorial I was reading on Seeking Alpha this morning:
Good Times Ahead For Gold And Gold Miners
Nov. 15, 2016 – Andrew McElroy (3,392 followers)
http://seekingalpha.com/article/4023570-good-times-ahead-gold-gold-miners?ifp=0
Decade of gold mine declines poised to spur deals, prices
16th November 2016 BY: BLOOMBERG
“What we’ll possibly see is consolidation in the industry as a result, whether that’s a large company taking over smaller ones, a number of smaller ones getting together, or even two or three large companies being merged,” Ian Telfer, chairperson of Vancouver-based Goldcorp, said in an interview….
This is absolutely a sweet spot to start adding miners! Maybe the low is this week or maybe it has already hit the low for some miners who knows, but what I can say is that the daily and more so the weekly combined with Matthews bullish index chart is screaming gold moving next I to that 1500/1550 call I made a while back.
Look for car and euro to rise as well..
Agreed there is good value here in the miners Glenfidish.
What are your thoughts about the analysis where many believe we may go down through $1200 to the $1080 or $1050 area again, and that this may drag out over 3 more months?
Personally, I see it as possible, but with the miners this oversold, and if we really did start a new bull market this year, then I see the miners moving first and surprising investors once again.
I’m watching for when miners signal they want to move higher, and will be taking my cues from that kind of action. The Jr miners outperform the metals, and this year they’ve lead the metals.
I meant loonie/cad
And the US thinks it is so far ahead of the world…..
Hi shad
I believe there is a good chance we can break 1200 or go even lower but it seems to me that the miners have put in or are very close to putting in a bottom and that’s all the matters to me. I’m really looking at this sell off from august as tax season selling premature. I think the miners go up from here and zig zag side ways and next year first quarter really take off..
Good thoughts and I’m looking at things in a similar way regarding the miners. Cheers!
IMHO the recent move down in the junior PM market will trigger more TLS and put a cap on most stocks until January. I see many 200 day moving averages broken or touched to think TLS is ending.
However in the oil market there may not be TLS as much.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TGL.TO
The 200 day is rising after a brief touch.
Meant to post a yearly chart of Transglobe.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TGL.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p59731953918
Yes Dan, calgary…. Tax Loss Selling – I’m buying back shares I sold in July & August from distressed investors that bought near the summer tops, and are selling these losses.
“One man’s trash is another man’s treasure” 🙂
Glenfidish, I believe you are thinking in western terms.
Gold is a world market.
There is considerable Asian buying of gold. Real Gold, not paper.
Every time it drops a little in price buying picks up greatly.
Asses in learning…..
How little they know…
Jim Sinclair DID NOT Make the 125K Gold call…It was Clif High
High can’t name a price for gold and silver, but his “predictive linguistics” says, “At some point in 2017, probably past mid-year, we’re going to be looking at hyperinflation so bad that the DOW will be measured around $100,000 to $125,000. Meaning, the dollar will be so worthless that it will take $125,000 to buy the little basket that is the DOW.
I also have language that says an ounce of gold will be approaching the DOW in terms of value. This is not ludicrous. In the last depression in 1933 and 1934, after the shutting of the banks . . . we had a point where gold and the DOW were the same, and gold dominated the DOW for decades.”
http://usawatchdog.com/federal-reserve-clintons-doomed-clif-high/