Another reason to turn off the blow-drys on biz TV and listen to blogs like Big Al’s where one is more likely to learn the truth.

Quoting Jay Taylor:
“The producer wanted to know why I thought the gold price had fallen on Thursday, as he thought it should have risen because of the decline in stock prices and a downturn in confidence in the European Union’s resolve to “fix” Europe’s economic problems. I suggested to him that I thought the work of GATA helped explain one possible answer to that question. I told him I thought GATA provided some pretty strong evidence that the gold price is from time to time rigged by the same folks responsible for the LIBOR fraud.

“The producer responded by asking me to please avoid talking about GATA. It was OK for me to say what I believed, he said, but not to say the name “GATA,” because, in his words, “That causes a lot of trouble around here.”

http://www.gata.org/node/11635

Hey Big Al

Regarding your disagreement about some of your bloggers and commentators expressing “gold to decline in value”: I would suggest that gold can still drop in price but that doesn’t mean it drops in value. There is a difference.

As far as a floor in gold goes, “yes” but that can change, although I admit, technically it looks good but there is still a little caution. Fundamentally, it only makes sense to purchase gold as an insurance policy no matter if the price goes down or not. Gold can do well in BOTH environments – deflation and inflation, but much better as an insurance policy 😉

stay frosty

Big Al and all:
As long as we live in a NEGATIVE real interest rate environment there will be a positive upward trend in the PM sector. Also, the underlying global/macro environment has never been more supported of holding physical metals than ANY other time in recent history. The current fiat currency system WILL NOT die overnight, but will seem like a “cold-cock” punch to the unaware or ill-prepared investor who foolishly “suckles” to fabrications and promises of US dollar-denominated assets. A person’s only calculation should really be HOW MUCH do I allocate to this sector for protection and capital asset growth as a “leverage” play against a vastly accelerating currency devaluation.
Marc

Al, thanks for the follow-up.
I have to agree with you and Marshall regarding fundamentals, in fact I have there are not many arguments againts the them. Harry Dent’s comments are the only one that I have heard on the negative side, siting defaltion.
Edelson is a chartist and a “cycle” man, I have difficulty believing his theories.
As for the pure chartists, I believe that they are spilt between up and down.
Thanks again TR, Al and Marshall.

Bitting on SLW ( under $26) and NEM(under $44) during the summer doldrums turned out to be a fun move. I am now looking up North to see somemore Yukon drill results.
I have become a fan of the producers linking divends to the price of the target metal.
R-einvest those dividends in the other side of the barbell loaded up with juniors and exploration plays.

Most of the guys @ KWN think gold is going up. I enjoyed the recent interviews.
Personally I figure alot of “stuff” is on its way up and gold should retain its purchasing
power as it always has.
Silver, I cant be too sure of other than everything going up and maybe gold drags silver up.
From what I read (dont have the articales) demand has not met supply for silver this year and next year we should expect another 300 million production.To me thats fundimentally down for the silver price.
Sprott says he is going to buy 8 million oz but 4 million was just found on a sunken british merchant vessel.
I dont see fundimentals for silver saying up but nothing makes sense, its all rigged as far as I am concerned so we will see. Especially when we cant be sure if what we read is true, example, reuters was hacked and false stories put out. (or is that true?)
Agriculture on the other hand, fundimentally up, up and away.

I think there is just a really confusing mixture of bearish and bullish indicators for gold right now.

Bearish:
Ongoing weakness in Euro and Eurozone: multiple credit crises there, could last for years.
EU is slow to respond to crises (compared to USA in 2008 crisis)
Lehman-style event in Europe causing market crash and crash in gold and silver with stock market.
US dollar strength on this deleraging along with above with dollar index perhaps to 90+: see stockcharts.com gallery view of $USDX.
Low premiums exist on a lot of semi-numismatic coins – often these premiums are high at a bottom in gold.
Slowdown in Indian and Chinese growth and possible falling demand for PMs there from private investors?
Romney as new president with tighter monetary/fiscal policies, perhaps?
VERY Poor performance in gold in this correction, 10 months in and STILL in bottom quartile of the range unlike other corrections that had much better performance at this stage.
Seeming total lack for months of buying impetus from the base of this correction.
The price seems totally at the mercy of comments from central bankers with no independent monentum at all.
Big head and shoulders can be drawn in gold target $1300.
Already had failures of bullish flags/pennants in gold during this correction.
Poor performance of gold stocks in general e.g HUI, XAU indices with HUI dipping below 400 recently.
Gold has spenct some time under 200 day moving average, starts to look like a mini bear market instead of a sharp bull market correction.

Bullish:

Commitment of Traders COT reports fund long positions and Commercial short positions at 3+ year lows.
I wonder if the low level of positions in the COT report indicates exit of speculators from gold on long and short side – will they ever come back? Maybe it’s an indicator of the demise of the paper market with physical market taking over – and physical offtake could now dictate the price – a different complexion for the market.
Long correction has occurred already and base at $1540 or so tested several times.
Seeming inevitability of huge money printing / QE in many countries, EU, USA, UK, Japan, etc.
Credit downgrade of USA could spark big gold rally and trash this current US dollar rally.
Any decent outcome in EU going forward could spark gold off again.
The classy royalty gold stock Fraqnco-Nevada has broken out to new high. (However, big silver stock Fresnillo rallied to new highs on the first relief rally in silver in mid-2011 and then silver crashed again later).
On other occasions, gold below its 200 day moving average has preceded rallies (as one would expect, because it was still a bull market)

I still fear a spike lower in gold and silver on a market crash before a major rally.
A spike lower to $1300 would be a 33% correction like in 2008, perhaps that could be followed by a near treble to match performace from 2008-2011 going from $680 to $1925?
So perhaps there is potential for move to $3750 from a $1300 base in that case.
Personally, I would love to see a rocket rally in gold from the low here, similar to silver’s rally in 2010-2011.

Hey Big Al, you said about a month ago that you’d have an audio segment from Del at Premium Exploration every couple of weeks.. So far nothing,, is there a reason for this?

Al,, your competitors have misread the tea leaves…..
China…..green tea…..does not like green bucks….they know the outcome of fiat….
India…tea served in gold cups……..
Your competitors need to keep their eyes on the east…..(just like Baroll says)

Just for the record, I, like Al, am also not agreeing or disagreeing with the the text about L. Williams which was a summary I copied from someone else, not my typewriting style. And, like Al (and the sponsors, too, I guess,) I’m certainly not advocating getting out of all carefully selected and diversified “paper.”

Nobody is better than Alf Fields for technicals. He thinks we go higher in the gold price.

Something is going to give soon. The weekly Bollinger bands are narrowing significantly for gold. The dollar is starting to look suspect. The Djia/Gold ratio is moving ever closer to the 200 week MA. GDXJ and other gold related charts appear to show bottoming. The momentum indicators for gold are moving in the positive for the first time in months. I believe there is a better then 50/50 chance that we move higher. Do we move high enough to break new highs? I doubt it. We could move in this consolidation for weeks yet.

Hi Big Al,
Am I getting greedy? These prices are good for adding ounces and positions.
Best to all.

Mark Alan makes a good point on values and valuations. If the NYC boyz drive the Dow to $20,000; and gold is $5,000, what is the Dow worth?…Not much. This can happen and they’ll claim Happy Daze are here again. I am an Alf Fields fan. We both do techie stuff. I had an unannounced high on a gold forecast to $4450 (not published) and I have several more stop and go points from $1,923 all the way to the $4,450. When Alf Fields predicted $4,500 I was smiling broadly knowing I was on the right track. Alf is one of best. So is Louise Yamata who won the National Trading Forecast Championship four times!! I have heard her institutional forecast letter costs $150,000 per year. WOW- Traderrog

Been buying Allied Nevada as of late. They keep coming up with great numbers.

Hi Al, Larry Edelson is a long term bull and is not saying that Gold or Silver will go down long term. However, he does believe that they are both in an intermediate downturn which if you look at the yearly chart of both metals is true. I don’t think you can disagree with that. Silver is significantly lower than it was a year ago as is gold. His point is that although we are bulls, most of the rest of the world is not and gold is merely a side-show to the mainstream. Until we have our day in the sun when the fiat system finally collapses we will not be able to sit at dinner parties and tell the other 90% of people how clever we are. If all the debt is monetized then yes gold will go to the moon, but history has told us that what happens is actually that the debt is written off. Greece will leave the euro and their debt will default – deflationary. Portugal, Spain, Italy probably the same. These events IN THE SHORT TERM will be deflationary and not inflationary and that is where Edelson is coming from. Hard assets are the way to go but as one of your posters said, that may well mean the gold and particularly silver will go down in price in the short term and that short term could easily mean for another year or so. It will be monetization of debt ( QE etc) that will inflate PM prices but until that happens, the risk is to the downside in large falls. The charts still show an intermediate down market and that trend is still intact.
Greg