No Weekend Show This Week
Shad and I were busy at the Beaver Creek Precious Metals Summit all week and unfortunately didn’t have time to record a weekend show.
It was a very productive conference. Over the next month you should see some new companies featured on the show.
The mood at the conference was very upbeat! The precious metals continued to move higher and the stocks are continuing to perform well. It’s looking like the last few months of the year could be very good.
We’ll be back with interviews on Monday! Have a great weekend everyone.
https://www.fibonomics.com/2025/09/natgas-gartley-golden-c.html
NatGas : Golden C : Slingshot Turn Northward : STEO Added
Watching UNG but Moxie has not generated a buy signal yet. It’s close though. I have a feeling UNG will drop under $11 then it will be a juicy trade.
CJ: That is possible. Note what’s coming next here. BDC
Update Completed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xfxxljzCutY
Bill Powers, David Erfle, Brian Leni
From Beaver Creek
If the dow/gold ratio closes here or lower at the end of this month, it will have taken out the closing low in 2020 and we’re probably headed for the 6-7 range on the next stop. Then, hopefully, we’ll see the 1-2 range again for the 3rd time in history.
Will gold price be higher than the DJIA as in Jan 1980 or in 1933? Rambus says gold could be 12299 in March 2033.
Canada’s 53 billion $ copper deal where Anglo American and Teck Resources merged, who wins and who loses. Copper is the artery for electricity. DT
It would be more bullish if the mood at the Beaver Creek Precious Metals Summit was less than upbeat but that’s a lot to ask considering all the evidence we have that the outlook for the sector is fantastic.
However, there IS some skepticism in the silver market since Sprott’s PSLV is currently trading at discount to NAV of -1.73% (NYSE). The last time it traded at a premium was 4 years ago and it wasn’t much of one. In 2011, it its premium to NAV was around 20% for most of the year and on January 9th, 2012, it hit a premium of 34%. It is very bullish that silver is still trading below NAV despite closing the week near $43.
When silver fell 72% from 2011 to its 2015 low, the lowest discount to NAV achieved was -1.29% when silver traded around $14 yet today’s is -1.73% at almost $43 silver.
A lot of people are going to regret selling their silver when it hits $50 again because that number no longer means much.
Monthly silver looks ready to add big gains quickly…
https://schrts.co/IzEJVMrE
In just 2.4 weeks, silver will log its best quarterly close by far.
https://schrts.co/aTKjEXGJ
SLV is again ready to go much higher vs QQQ…
https://schrts.co/vgFrhFCt
Gold looks superb vs the Dow and doesn’t need to accomplish anything this month to improve the outlook. This will be the 7th straight monthly close above both the 250 month simple MA and the 250 month exponential MA. The last time the Gold:Dow ratio climbed above those MAs was in 2008 but that setup was vastly inferior.
https://schrts.co/FQTrnrwi
GLD:SPY
https://schrts.co/YArYwadB
See my comment to Richard above. Do you think gold will cost more than the DJIA in the next 8 years?
Bonzo, it’s possible but I have no idea if it’s probable since the desires of the “powers that be” matter a great deal.
The Mexican peso looks ready to move higher.
https://schrts.co/XSBcpEch
I have a Mexican 2 1/2 peso gold coin that should go up even faster than the fiat peso.
Do you remember when I bought a truckload of PSLV @ 5.70 at a nearly 5% discount to NAV several years ago? I wonder if I should sell some and buy some SILJ?
I posted this chart the other day but it’s worth posting again. Silver looks a lot better than the senior golds right now…
https://schrts.co/gsYDkNPK
GDX is overbought, going parabolic and has hit its various P&F targets but it could still extend its move significantly and quickly with the rate cut next week.
https://schrts.co/sTURTYnN
GDX weekly
https://schrts.co/wdJJHpAe
GDX just had its best weekly close since 2020 versus the Nasdaq 100.
https://schrts.co/PKmjZtBW
In a bull market, I have no use for the best of the best. FNV smoked GDX from 2010 to 2022 but is now underperforming GDX and will do so for years to come.
GDX:FNV is about to put in its best monthly close in over 8 years…
https://schrts.co/rBztgWrB
That could change suddenly if Panama has a change of heart with the mine they confiscated .
A BIG IF ! I’ve never owned it. Thanks for all you charting and remarks, good way to finish off an extraordinary week in the miners
Revenue mix for the most recent quarter comprised of 82% precious metal, 14% energy and 4% iron ore and other so I wonder how much of a difference Cobre would make, especially with gold set to outperform copper for months to come. I know it would be meaningful but how meaningful?
I posted the following FNV chart in July when it was backtesting its breakout and trading around 160. Today it’s at 200…
https://schrts.co/gnRRTTxI
I do think FNV would be a great place to put some GDX profits ahead of a GDX correction.
I agree that it’s not the right time to buy FNV, WPM, AEM, and RGLD, but I won’t be selling them either as my cost for FNV is 20, for RGLD is 26, for AEM is 8, and for WPM is below 10, and I don’t want to pay the capital gains taxes. Rick Rule says FNV, AEM, and WPM are the best precious metal companies in the world and he will never sell.
There’s nothing wrong with keeping the best of the best just like keeping some physical metals. There’s an opportunity cost in doing so but there’s also safety.
Rick Rule has always promoted quality large caps and most people would be better off with them but they never match the smaller caps during a bull market.
Btw, I wouldn’t put AEM in with FNV, WPM and RGLD since AEM is a miner.
AEM has outperformed the royalty/streaming plays for the last couple of years, almost tripling vs FNV, and should continue to outperform them except when the sector corrects.
https://schrts.co/UJxKIJrN
GDX has doubled vs QQQ in the last 18 months but that outperformance is just the beginning.
https://schrts.co/RtekJrMz
Must have been a ton of whispers Friday @noon at Beaver Creek with BLACKROCK SILVER, VOLUME EXPLODED, price up 31%, then retreated 60+% of its gain. No news that I can find
I think BRC is still going higher but that volume spike is good reason for caution. Rising volume is bullish in an uptrend but spikes that are 4-5 times normal often show up near a major turn. The biggest volume spike of 2020 came one week before the top.
https://schrts.co/iBzTFaPC
From a monthly perspective, the volume spike in 2020 marked the top. And price almost went 5x that month so the next 2-3 weeks just might get wild to the upside.
I think that resistance line I drew off the 2020 and 2022 high monthly closes might explain Friday’s heavy profit taking…
https://schrts.co/cQkRTGkD
Silver:Gold (SLV:GLD) just put in its best weekly close of the year…
https://schrts.co/cQkRTGkD
Oops, wrong link; here’s the right one:
https://schrts.co/PKdfCYqe
Precious Metals Update: Gold, GDX, GDXJ, Silver, SIL, and SILJ To New Highs
Excelsior Prosperity w/ Shad Marquitz (09-14-2025)
https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/p/precious-metals-update-gold-gdx-gdxj
Great article Ex. I have become nervous about gains to date and length of the move. I had gotten so use to a couple of months of “recovery of gains” before another smash that this recent move makes me feel like a sitting target. Simultaneously the level of debt keeps growing, the tariffs have US companies throwing in the towel, foreign corporations are moving toward Eastern Markets, and everyone seems to want to kill each other for all the wrong reasons (a right reason would be self defense from someone with the wrong reason). Also looks like Wall Street keeps looking for Bag Holders to get out of their inflated values mess.
Who knows … but one of the other issues is “shut down of the US government” which seems totally consistent with current US fiscal programs. What happens if the US walks away from all government activity and just plays golf. That just may have some impact on most everyone but the very wealthy.
On the other hand, PMs may be all there is.
Much appreciated Lakedweller2. Yes, it feels odd to be well into the acceleration phase of a raging PM bull market, and see most of the sector ratcheting higher most of last year and this year.
As you mentioned there a plenty of positive macro tailwinds at the back of the PM sector, to keep fueling it higher in the medium to longer-term. Still, we are getting a bit extended here in the near-term, and I’ve been starting to lighten up just a little bit (10-20%) in some of my positions that have run the furthest, just to start raising a bit more dry powder in my trading account.
https://tinyurl.com/bddmb9wj
PMs Topped or Topping.
Good Times !!