Market Trends – Thu 22 Dec, 2011

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Roger Wiegand

  1. On December 22, 2011 at 2:34 pm,
    Karen says:

    Al and Rog,
    A very Merry Christmas to you and your family. Thanks for this great program and the chance to learn so much.

    • On December 22, 2011 at 3:44 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Hi Karen,

      You all don’t learn nearly as much as I do.

      Thanks to all.

      Big Al

  2. On December 22, 2011 at 2:39 pm,
    Karen says:

    Wishing everyone a very Merry Christmas and a happy and healthy New Year.

  3. On December 22, 2011 at 2:47 pm,
    Dirk B says:

    The ECB bailout of Europe really seems to have slipped under the pundits’ radar… it seems to have the potential to head off a Lehman-type collapse in Europe; a TARP + QE1 + QE2 move all in one, if I understand correctly; see this link:

    I know there are no crystal balls out there, but have yet to hear any of my favorite analysts address this… I would really like to have some vague idea about how this venture might calm (or not) markets over the next 6 months or so.

  4. On December 22, 2011 at 2:58 pm,
    Matthew says:

    Since there seemed to be some doubt regarding my assessment of the Dow yesterday, specifically the period between late October and today, I decided to ask a market veteran, expert, and perfectionist, Stewart Thomson, retired Merrill Lynch broker. Not surprisingly, he agreed that we have a bullish H&S continuation pattern that should be good for gold stocks if it activates.
    I think the pattern will activate tomorrow or Monday.

    • On December 22, 2011 at 3:18 pm,
      Anna Boeddeker says:

      Matthew, your last assertions (no H&S formation in the Baltic & Dow outlook in the very short term) can not convince me. We will see…

      Peace and Harmony for the coming Christmas Days to all of you!

      • On December 22, 2011 at 3:26 pm,
        Matthew says:

        When the price at the apex of the right shoulder was exceeded a month later, the H&S ceased to exist.

        • On December 22, 2011 at 3:40 pm,
          Anna Boeddeker says:

          Patterns with an extended right shoulder perform as well as patterns with a symmetrical looking. Symmetry helps for the identification but is not the conditional rule.

          • On December 22, 2011 at 4:13 pm,
            Matthew says:

            You are right about symmetry. It’s the passage of time in conjunction with the loss of symmetry that negates the pattern. If the BDI goes sideways for another month, will you still consider the pattern intact? The best H&S patterns activate very soon after the right shoulder has formed. This has been my experience, and I have learned not to ignore the evidence contained in that experience.

    • On December 22, 2011 at 9:53 pm,
      John W. Robertson says:

      Another possibility is the pattern is indeed already breaking out, but slowly, with a mild retracement after the Dec 9th peak.

      • On December 23, 2011 at 6:40 am,
        Matthew says:

        Yes, the importance of the “neckline” is that it is a low-level support going back to 2003. Price is testing and retesting this area since reacquiring this level in Sept. For a better perspective, look at a 10 year non-log chart. A bottom could be in place.

    • On December 23, 2011 at 1:35 pm,
      Matthew says:

      The bullish H&S pattern (Dow) activated today. We’ll see if we now head straight for the target area, or if we first pull back to the neckline about 100 points below today’s close before heading higher. My guess is we just continue higher as shorts cover. A shorting opportunity of our own could be near.

  5. On December 22, 2011 at 3:04 pm,
    Matthew says:
  6. On December 23, 2011 at 7:53 am,
    cfs2000 says:

    erry Christmas to Al et al from Spain…..but soon to be in Caribbean like Don Coxe is currently.

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  8. On February 3, 2014 at 4:20 pm,
    Karlita says:

    Andrea – I think being wholehearted shloud include plenty of B&J’s. It’s all about being true to yourself, right? Don’t be ashamed of your relationship with Ben OR Jerry! I’ve found them to be good listeners, soothing to the soul, and slightly crunchy. All good things.