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Al and Rog,
A very Merry Christmas to you and your family. Thanks for this great program and the chance to learn so much.
You all don’t learn nearly as much as I do.
Thanks to all.
Wishing everyone a very Merry Christmas and a happy and healthy New Year.
The ECB bailout of Europe really seems to have slipped under the pundits’ radar… it seems to have the potential to head off a Lehman-type collapse in Europe; a TARP + QE1 + QE2 move all in one, if I understand correctly; see this link:
I know there are no crystal balls out there, but have yet to hear any of my favorite analysts address this… I would really like to have some vague idea about how this venture might calm (or not) markets over the next 6 months or so.
Since there seemed to be some doubt regarding my assessment of the Dow yesterday, specifically the period between late October and today, I decided to ask a market veteran, expert, and perfectionist, Stewart Thomson, retired Merrill Lynch broker. Not surprisingly, he agreed that we have a bullish H&S continuation pattern that should be good for gold stocks if it activates.
I think the pattern will activate tomorrow or Monday.
Matthew, your last assertions (no H&S formation in the Baltic & Dow outlook in the very short term) can not convince me. We will see…
Peace and Harmony for the coming Christmas Days to all of you!
When the price at the apex of the right shoulder was exceeded a month later, the H&S ceased to exist.
Patterns with an extended right shoulder perform as well as patterns with a symmetrical looking. Symmetry helps for the identification but is not the conditional rule.
You are right about symmetry. It’s the passage of time in conjunction with the loss of symmetry that negates the pattern. If the BDI goes sideways for another month, will you still consider the pattern intact? The best H&S patterns activate very soon after the right shoulder has formed. This has been my experience, and I have learned not to ignore the evidence contained in that experience.
Another possibility is the pattern is indeed already breaking out, but slowly, with a mild retracement after the Dec 9th peak.
Yes, the importance of the “neckline” is that it is a low-level support going back to 2003. Price is testing and retesting this area since reacquiring this level in Sept. For a better perspective, look at a 10 year non-log chart. A bottom could be in place.
The bullish H&S pattern (Dow) activated today. We’ll see if we now head straight for the target area, or if we first pull back to the neckline about 100 points below today’s close before heading higher. My guess is we just continue higher as shorts cover. A shorting opportunity of our own could be near.
Ron Paul’s portfolio is interesting but tame.
erry Christmas to Al et al from Spain…..but soon to be in Caribbean like Don Coxe is currently.
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