Al's Insights – Wed 8 Feb, 2012

Interference in the gold markets

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Al KorelinRoger Wiegand

  1. On February 8, 2012 at 1:51 am,
    cfs2000 says:

    Paper wags the bullion.
    Big boys rape the little guys (the ignorant), just as the government rapes the elderly by keeping interest rates low and lying about inflation.
    Twill always be thus; until the revolution, which gets nearer every day.

  2. On February 8, 2012 at 2:05 am,
    cfs2000 says:

    My efforts at TA (much more amateurish than TraderRog seem to indicate a definite buy in energy at the moment.
    E.g. for XLE or DIG:
    DIG – Ultra Oil & Gas (AMEX)

    Date Open High Low Last Change Volume % Change
    02/08/12 48.95 49.90 48.04 49.76 unch 524623 unch%

    Composite Indicator
    Trend Spotter TM Buy

    Short Term Indicators
    7 Day Average Directional Indicator Buy
    10 – 8 Day Moving Average Hilo Channel Buy
    20 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy
    20 – 50 Day MACD Oscillator Buy
    20 Day Bollinger Bands Buy

    Short Term Indicators Average: 100% – Buy
    20-Day Average Volume – 480621

    Medium Term Indicators
    40 Day Commodity Channel Index Buy
    50 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy
    20 – 100 Day MACD Oscillator Buy
    50 Day Parabolic Time/Price Buy

    Medium Term Indicators Average: 100% – Buy
    50-Day Average Volume – 724522

    Long Term Indicators
    60 Day Commodity Channel Index Buy
    100 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy
    50 – 100 Day MACD Oscillator Buy

    Long Term Indicators Average: 100% – Buy
    100-Day Average Volume – 1244247

    Overall Average: 100% – Buy

    Price Support Pivot Point Resistance

    49.76 47.37 49.23 51.09
    The only slightly negative aspect being RSIs getting up close to 70.

    • On February 8, 2012 at 10:42 am,
      Marc says:

      CFS 2000
      Thanks for the info….havent heard from you for a while. Then all of sudden, you throw out a classic CFS blog with great, detailed information.
      Again, thanks.
      BTW, been really thinkin about getting into a XLE position for a couple of weeks – this info is, of course, very helpful.
      All the best,

      • On February 8, 2012 at 11:51 am,
        cfs2000 says:

        For those thinking about oil, I throw in one other piece of information.
        France sold and delivered to Iran a significant quantity of land-to-ship missiles about 9 months to a year ago. (More advanced than exocet II s, but I forget their exact name.) So if Iran decides to take out one of the US flat-tops from 30 miles away, they have a good chance of succeeding. I just wonder the propaganda value of such a strike! – Must be very tempting to Iran. (Remember most of the British casualties in the Falkland war were from exocets the French sold to Argentina! So here we might go again!) Russia ia also stating that if the US interferes with Iran it will result in WW III. (See post on 321 Gold)
        Everything is clearly coming to a head as the petrodollar program and hence the US dollar as a world reserve currency is changing. India appears ready to trade gold for oil. Chinia is hoarding as much gold as it can reasonably get its hands on (and might trade it for oil) We live in interesting times!

      • On February 8, 2012 at 11:56 am,
        cfs2000 says:

        I was spending some time in Europe, but when patches of ice started to form on the lagoon outside Venice I decided to head for the southern Caribbean. (I will be in Barbados in a couple of weeks)

  3. On February 8, 2012 at 4:56 am,
    kp says:

    You guys should be more worried about the new FBI anti-terrorist law which makes Rog and All terrorists since they advocate gold ownership.

    I always wondered about you two – LOL

    • On February 8, 2012 at 10:17 am,
      John W. Robertson says:

      De facto confiscation. We had to expect it.

  4. On February 8, 2012 at 4:59 am,
    kp says:

    secondly, it is a sad day that one is considered anti-government when in fact we are trying to protect ourselves from government mismanagement. It just baffles me how your liberties are being threatened with no one taking notice>

    be safe everyone.

    • On February 8, 2012 at 10:22 am,
      John W. Robertson says:

      Recall the article from last week that several states (SC, UT at primary at this point, but 11 others) are trying to pass legislation to allow debts to be redeemed in gold or silver. Not that this would be clarifying with our Federal-Gov’t-knows-best reality today, but it’s not like we’re alone in that idea. Now, if you want to build a victory garden or bomb shelter, you’re on your own!

      I used to teach emergency preparedness, so I guess I have an ‘out’ on stocking up on Duracells. But that Mac-n-cheese is damning.

      • On February 8, 2012 at 10:52 am,
        Marc says:

        John W.
        I wouldnt be surprised if “they” are monitoring E-foods direct buyers – from George Noory fame.

        • On February 8, 2012 at 12:51 pm,
          John W. Robertson says:

          Let’s hope Costco doesn’t have to file a 1099 for every member who buys 6 or more cans of soup at once!

    • On February 8, 2012 at 12:33 pm,
      cfs2000 says:

      It is utterly incredible to me that over a decade ago during the savings and loan scandal over a 1000 miscreants were charged and tried and/or paid fines/spent jail time. But now under Obama, criminal prosecution of financial fraud has fallen to multi-decade lows during what is and remains one of the most target-rich environments in living memory. No one has been jailed over the mortgage scandals!
      Corsine is still walking free after the MFGobal theft.
      Those connected to the Emperor (did I mis-spell that? Empoorer might fit more aptly) always walk free, just as long as they make enough donations to the re-election campaign.

      • On February 8, 2012 at 1:00 pm,
        John W. Robertson says:

        No one in Europe or the US has been charged. Some even feel Barney Frank did a good job. MF Global is indeed the most egregious, and it was ‘regulators’ as much as Corzine who sub-ordinated customer’s accounts into something more like common shareholders.

  5. On February 8, 2012 at 5:33 am,
    Richard says:

    I agree with Trader Rog on the significance of technical analysis. It’s the primary way I trade. He obviously gets into the minutia more then I do and I’ve often not agreed with him on some of his predictions. Sometimes he’s right and sometimes he off but the important thing is technical analysis is more accurate the longer time frame that you look out. I feel he hasn’t been correct about his rather bullish statements he’s made over the last 4 months. It was obvious that we were entering a significant period of consolidation in the precious metal charts. In fact this period may exist longer then we realize. It could extend into this fall or beyond. However what is relevant is that we’re still in a precious metal bull market and patience will be the key.

    • On February 8, 2012 at 10:49 am,
      Marc says:

      I am leaning your way too….people coming into these markets now: Please READ Richard’s last statement – it will serve you very, very well for future deliberations.
      All the best,
      BTW, I would be VERY surprised if David Morgan’s $60 figure is a valid estimate for the 2012 silver forecast – QE3 will spike the PM’s higher and then pull back, but other than an obvious, unforeseen event, I think mid-to upper 40’s is what we are lookin at.
      But, who knows – I am very LONG – so who cares.

      • On February 8, 2012 at 12:58 pm,
        Richard says:

        Marc, I agree with you as regards David Morgan’s $60 dollar figure for 2012. If anything we could move up to test the $50 figure again in late fall but feel we’ll have to do some backing and filling until the 200 week MA moves higher to allow us to spring board off that.

  6. On February 8, 2012 at 5:36 am,
    Tex says:

    Speaking of interference…..and ‘free markets’… about insider trading…Goldcorp’s Ian Telfer denies wrong-doing in OSC insider trading probe. A March 21 hearing has been set by the Ontario Securities Commission regarding possible Securities Act violations resulting from alleged insider trading rings involving Canadian mining securities.

  7. On February 8, 2012 at 11:12 am,
    roger wiegand says:

    Richard: thanks for the comments on tech analysis. Everyone who uses tech info has too say WHICH TIME PERIOD IN THE DISCUSSION. You mentioned I was off on my bull comments over the past four months. Most of those were expressed in the longer view but I was early on others. I will make an effort to say which time period under discussion. I cannot reveal all of my forecasts as my Trader Tracks Newsletter readers pay good money for my work so I cannot give it all away free every day. The most important thing for us all is to stay on trend and not lose larger amounts of money. I trade only futures but my readers (about 90%) are stock traders. My account in futures since January 1, 2012, is up about +38%, primarily on futures spreads we bought last year. – Traderrog

    • On February 8, 2012 at 1:05 pm,
      Richard says:

      Roger, I would love to have your insight into the following. The stock markets have been trending higher and we may have one of those November to April seasonal moves in place—if that plays true, “go away in May” might well be in force again this year. I’ll probably be shorting the stock markets sometime in late March (or before if technically indicative). Unlike many I feel the catalyst may be a coming recession in late 2012 and early 2013—-this could very well be due to a harder landing in China then suspected along with bigger troubles in a couple of the larger Europe countries such as Spain and Italy. I’ve been looking at some stats out of China that are very troubling. My problem is this: if we are headed for a recession and a good sell-off in the markets, do you think that this time around the precious metal markets could be oblivious to it?

  8. On February 8, 2012 at 3:55 pm,
    Clay says:

    Manipulation in the markets, most certainly gold, silver and oil are fundamental facts. When Banks like JPM can get money from the Fed at next to no cost or interest, and when the Fed is actually owned and in part controlled by banks like JPM, who in their right mind would think that these bankers are not trying to control currencies or anything which competes with the Dollar for world trade and commerce. Of course without question gold and silver prices are controlled by people who have vested interest in their own banks and currencies. Oil is also controlled.

    The problem in most of the World markets and economies is that banks and governments are and have been increasing their control, everyone knows that. These heavy handed controls have consequences such as wars, bankruptcies, failed economies and business, and the worst of all loss of freedom and liberty. Capital controls are here and now, everywhere. It just happens that the US is one of the worlds worst right now and getting more severe every day.

    Nearly everything the government is doing is bad for the US and all people of the World. Things are going to get much worse and I absolutely guarantee that the US dollar will no longer be used as World Currency in next 19 months. That is when things in the US really get bad. Not later than end of 2013 when either the dollar dies or the politicians in Washington finally wake up and begin doing things that might have chance to save the nation.

    • On February 8, 2012 at 5:33 pm,
      cfs2000 says:

      Oh come on! The US dollar’s hegemony will last longer than 2013. I think you underestimate the sheer volume of dollars out there! How many countries use US dollars AS their own currency, after their’s has collapsed?…..That is in the teens!
      The US dollar WILL decrease in importance at a steady pace, but even WW III and the destruction of the US military will not kill the dollar so soon.

      • On February 8, 2012 at 6:09 pm,
        Clay says:

        cfs2000: OK I am gullible. But I can’t tell for sure if you are in jest or actually mean what you say.

        As per currency collapses, they usually never go down at steady pace. But even when they do, what happens to the economy in such countries? I don’t think in terms of decline of US dollar as being the serious issue, but more the decline in the US in general. Right now people with money are just sitting on it, and there is absolutely nothing from Washington that is going on to reverse it. People are more concerned about preservation of capital than return on capital, and until that changes the US is not going to see any kind of economic improvement.

        But my worst fear is, I don’t see any changes coming from the election process, just more bad shit. The country can not take it much longer and if one reads history we learn that declines happen extremely fast, never slow.

  9. On February 8, 2012 at 4:03 pm,
    Clay says: