Weekend Show – Sat 14 Apr, 2012

Gold, gold and more gold

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In this show Al discusses:

  1. Segment 1 – Olivier Garret, CEO of Casey Research, discusses how the U.S. is probably past the “turn-around point”.
  2. Segment 2 – Roger Wiegand weighs in with his “Miner of the Week” which is Northern Gold Mining Inc.
  3. Segment 3 – Louis James, of Casey Research, discusses his perception of how the world feels about the potential economic upheaval in the U.S.
  4. Segment 4 – Simon Mikhailovich discusses the critical difference between “safe haven investments” and “safe havens”.
  5. Segment 5 – James Turk discusses gold and the European economic environment.
  6. Segment 6 – Peter Grandich opines on the current performance of the mining shares.
  7. Segment 7 – Ron Hera discusses the correlation between the U.S. dollar and military conflicts.
  8. Segment 8 – Frank Holmes discusses investing and gold.



Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show


Featuring:
Al KorelinRoger WiegandSimon MikhailovichJames TurkPeter GrandichRon Hera
Frank HolmesOlivier GarretLouis James
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Comments:
  1. On April 14, 2012 at 4:15 am,
    Bob Kemble says:

    What a great show this weekend!
    Thank you!

    • On April 14, 2012 at 9:30 am,
      Big Al says:

      Thanks for the kind words, Mr. Kemble.

      Important to realize that it was great because of the guests which included a very smart listener!

      Big Al

    • On April 19, 2012 at 9:58 am,
      John W. Robertson says:

      Talk about an A-List show. Thanks Al.

  2. On April 14, 2012 at 5:34 am,
    Richard says:

    Good info, Al. There’s a large amount of comments one could respond to. One comment by a contributor was the encouragement to purchase dividend bearing stocks since their returns are greater then treasuries. One still has to be careful since if you have a general downturn in the market, capital losses certainly negate any return via dividends. Also, if we ultimately have some type of default in this country and other countries, the global demand will be tremendously impacted and many of these companies paying out dividends will have to pull in their horns and preserve capital and probably compromise those dividends. Just a thought.

    • On April 14, 2012 at 9:32 am,
      Big Al says:

      Morning Doc,

      Of course, you make a really good point.

      By the way, bit of a breakthrough on the course yesterday. Yea!

      Big Al

      • On April 14, 2012 at 11:14 am,
        Richard says:

        Better then the 20 handicap?

        • On April 14, 2012 at 12:33 pm,
          Big Al says:

          I will let you know in about a month. 20 handicap on our course (Ugh) and 17.6 index.

          Oh well, with the heck it is what it is!

          Big Al

  3. On April 14, 2012 at 5:53 am,
    Jerry O^OTB says:

    SEG 8…..CORRECTION TO FRANK……YOUR MONEY DOES NOT DOUBLE IN FIVE YEARS
    AT 12%
    IT takes….. 6 YEARS TO DOUBLE……..according to the
    RULE OF 72…,
    So, you say, but, that is an extra year of lesser gain, of lesser return and this in return is a magnifing number over an investment lifetime….
    Just my thoughts…..
    great show…..thank ootb

    • On April 14, 2012 at 6:02 am,
      Richard says:

      Jerry, you’re correct. I believe in order to double your money in an investment in 5 years you have to have a return of about 14.9% a year.

      • On April 14, 2012 at 9:32 am,
        Jerry O^OTB says:

        RICHARD,, YOU MIGHT KNOW THIS AL KNOW ,
        quick way to use the rule .

        .” RULE OF 72. .DOUBLING YOUR MONEY or paying intrest….

        is a simple DIVISION PROBLEM…..to figure either(….” INTREST OR TIME.”( time it takes to double your money)….
        EXAMPLE…..take the number. 72.. insert or .put the number in the division box…
        then…….take 6(representing TIME) …..and divide…..equals 12..(which reprsents INTREAT RATE.) .
        .YOU can change the time or interest rate, to figure ,,,
        just take the number you know…TIME. 5,7 10 years…(outside the box)….divide….this will give you the amount of intrest,,,,,
        ,
        if you know the INTREST RATE…10,12,14,16,28 % INTREST, divide and
        THE TIME..(will show how much time it takes to double your money
        or if you are paying the bankster how quick he gets your money..

        • On April 14, 2012 at 9:42 am,
          Jerry O^OTB says:

          PROOF READING 101……
          Correction….
          RICHARD ,, YOU MIGHT KNOW THIS ALREADY….
          I was thinking when typing, and had one eye closed,etc….
          but, I was thinking of AL, being a past banker must know this…

          • On April 14, 2012 at 2:21 pm,
            Mark Alan says:

            Are you hitting the “sauce” there Jerry?

          • On April 14, 2012 at 3:08 pm,
            Jerry O^OTB says:

            Mark…..When I said” PROOF” READING 101, I WAS’NT REFERRING TO ,
            how much PROOF there was on the label of the bottle..
            plus I have sworn off drinking since Irish and I were in Las Vegas

    • On April 14, 2012 at 9:33 am,
      Big Al says:

      Mr. In the Bo,

      I believe it is the rule of 72 and that provides a double in seven years.

      Big Al

      • On April 14, 2012 at 10:10 am,
        Jerry O^OTB says:

        BIG AL…..a double in… 7.2 years at 10% intrest…..

        great show…ootb….

        • On April 14, 2012 at 10:30 am,
          Big Al says:

          Okay, okay, okay I did leave out the percentage rate!

          Off to flog myself, In the Box!

          Big Al

          • On April 14, 2012 at 10:54 am,
            Jerry O^OTB says:

            I was just joking with you,,,,but, my point as before, is trying to show,
            a quick way to help others figure rates of return and how long it takes
            BUT, I BELIEVE….
            SOME INVESTORS FAIL TO REALIZE THE IMPORTANCE OF JUST A SMALL
            INCREASE OF 1-2% DIFFERENCE CAN MAKE…..
            and especially over 20,30,40, 70 years of investing….

    • On April 14, 2012 at 2:20 pm,
      Mark Alan says:

      And show me an “ordinary” year, especially after the last four that we have had! SSSshhhheeeeezzzzzz!

  4. On April 14, 2012 at 6:08 am,
    Bobby says:

    Jerry,
    Yes, you are correct! Eventhe rule of 69.3 only doubles every 5.775 years.

    • On April 14, 2012 at 8:10 am,
      Bobby says:

      Jerry, as i listened to Frank, i think he said growth will be 15-17% per year, maybe i am wrong, but i dont have time to relisten.

    • On April 14, 2012 at 10:16 am,
      Jerry O^OTB says:

      bobby…..that is high finance…….and if I tryed to explain that to IRISH,
      WELL YOU KNOW….

      • On April 14, 2012 at 10:21 am,
        Jerry O^OTB says:

        topo…tryed…tried

        • On April 14, 2012 at 10:31 am,
          Big Al says:

          Now, now, now, let’s not bring up the subject of challenged individuals!

          Big Al

          • On April 14, 2012 at 11:08 am,
            Jerry O^OTB says:

            Al,
            I am concerned with Irish, you know since our separation,
            I sent him back to Ft. KNOX, to retrieve the remaining bars,,,
            but, my last message from him, was somewhere in KNOX BAR AND GRILL,
            that was Thursday, then on Friday, it was JACK DANIALS DISTILLARY,
            AND Sat. morning…Kentucky White Lighting Pub., I hope he did not
            get the message wrong on the bars….

  5. On April 14, 2012 at 6:28 am,
    Clay says:

    Al: You have a good program this weekend, you are a hard worker. Also the people commenting on this web site are truly the cream of the crop.

    • On April 14, 2012 at 9:35 am,
      Big Al says:

      You bet Clay, we have a great “family” here!

      Big Al

      • On April 14, 2012 at 12:10 pm,
        Jerry O^OTB says:

        since I’m part of the “family”…what are we going to do about the inheritance tax,
        you know it ends this year….so, just send me my part now….and you will not
        be bothered later……Irish will not be affected since he gets his from the queen…

        • On April 14, 2012 at 12:32 pm,
          Big Al says:

          Actually, In the Box, you are more than just a part of the family. You are in charge of Irish and that carries numerous responsibilities. Not the least of which is taking care of the inheritance tax.

          Big Al

          • On April 14, 2012 at 1:53 pm,
            Jerry O^OTB says:

            Al,,,now that was a good one…..you are getting quicker in your thinking ,
            I was going to say, “with age comes wisdom”,but, the” age” part did not sound politically
            correct….
            ootb….

  6. On April 14, 2012 at 6:52 am,
    Bobby says:

    Great points by Olivier, one thing poped into my head while listening, but it could be contraversial:
    Maybe the US would be better off with a lame duck rather than a first termer. Really is there that much difference between the two?

    • On April 14, 2012 at 7:09 am,
      Richard says:

      There probably won’t be much difference although I would be more comfortable with a fellow that I perceive won’t compromise the constitution as much along with taking away our basic freedoms. When Obama moved to compromise religious freedom via the Catholic church and then was as verbal as he was regarding the Supreme Court, it really opened my eyes. Economically, there shouldn’t be much difference since any president now has their hands tied due to our debt issues. Policy will be guided by our overwhelming debt. The president will be totally reactive and captive to our financial circumstances.

      • On April 14, 2012 at 8:17 am,
        Bobby says:

        Richard, my point was that i do not think a first term president would be willing to do what it takes to address the debt issues, as this will cause much pain in the short term. Their sole purpose is re-election from the day that they take office. Lets face it, if we do not cure our economic problems we just might (think Germany) open ourselves up to other forms of government rule.

      • On April 14, 2012 at 9:39 am,
        Big Al says:

        HI Richard and Bobby,

        Doc, I like your comments re: the president.

        Bobby, I think the issue is much more complicated than just a lame duck vs. a first term president.

        There are so many more variables in existence now.

        Big Al

  7. On April 14, 2012 at 7:50 am,
    Clay says:

    Safe havens and safe assets, that is the question. The degree of worry and concerns about the future world wide suggest that there are no 100% safe havens or assets, only havens and assets that are less safe than others.

    Al, Your program and guests this weekend is definitely one of the top five of all you have produced, I am again listening to it the second time. Congratulations, and by the way your “Worrying” is producing wonderful results even more than profits. What good are dollar profits if one does not get to keep them?, this is the message Simon Mikhailovich and your other guests point out.

    Profits and safety are two concepts that are not necessarily mutual. When a person makes some good profits, they feel good about it and when a big loss occurs they feel bad, but more importantly what’s the difference learned between feelings in profits or losses and whats the respective responses?

    Big major changes in the future both politically and economically for the people of a nation are preceded by major worries of those seeking to understand which are always a small minority. This can be very dangerous for such people if they make the wrong decisions, or it can be their lifeboat away from such danger. It appears with high probability that an Iron Curtain is about to come down around the US and all its citizens, a curtain of imprisonment similar to North Korea, Cuba or the former Soviet Empire. Everything that has happened in the US for the last 20 years points in this direction. How long will this curtain stand?, is my big concern because it will depend on how many capitulate for basic needs and how many won’t.

    • On April 14, 2012 at 9:42 am,
      Big Al says:

      Morning Clay,

      Thanks for the kind words.

      Your final paragraph should concern every single thinking person out there!

      Big Al

    • On April 14, 2012 at 10:10 am,
      D.Brophy says:

      Hi Clay, what other place apart from here in the U.S. would be where your 2nd home be?

      • On April 14, 2012 at 10:32 am,
        Big Al says:

        Hi Denis,

        I am hearing more and more good things about Costa Rica. (From a whole bunch of people.)

        Big Al

      • On April 14, 2012 at 10:52 am,
        Clay says:

        Dennis, Chile, New Zealand, Australia in top categories. But I would not exclude Southeast Asia like Thailand or even Philippines.

        • On April 14, 2012 at 11:04 am,
          Big Al says:

          Actually Clay, I personally like Chile a lot. It is a very, very different culture however. Not worse, just different!

          Big Al

          • On April 14, 2012 at 2:56 pm,
            Jerry O^OTB says:

            Al,,,,you just like the wine, they have…..in Chile….

          • On April 14, 2012 at 6:04 pm,
            Jerry O^OTB says:

            a great place to live might be the ISLE OF GURENSEY,,there is no CENTRAL BANK there.

  8. On April 14, 2012 at 9:23 am,
    Mark Alan says:

    Great Weekend Show Big Al! WOW! What a line up! This is like the WORLD SERIES of gold investors!

    • On April 14, 2012 at 9:43 am,
      Big Al says:

      Morning Mark A,

      Yes, I really enjoyed putting this one together.

      Best,

      Big Al

  9. On April 14, 2012 at 10:21 am,
    skii says:

    Al, Rog,
    Did you guys ever check out Moneta, ME.TO?
    If you like NGM, Moneta is already there— same region, similar
    price point, share structure etc.
    just raised $3M at 30 cents. NGM is *approaching* 1M ounces, Moneta *already has* 3M ounces. $39M mkt cap at friday’s close. New 43-101 later this yr will probably show closer to 4M ounces.

    • On April 14, 2012 at 10:34 am,
      Big Al says:

      Sure have, and have nothing negative to say.

      We met the management of NGM in California courtesy of Laura Stein who is a very solid individual.

      That is where our interest came from and Roger was following the company a year prior to that introduction.

      Big Al

  10. On April 14, 2012 at 10:29 am,
    D.Brophy says:

    Hi Al, great show, super good cast of characters, Al you`ve out did yourself this time around.

    • On April 14, 2012 at 10:35 am,
      Big Al says:

      Many thanks, Denis. (By the way it is with one n isn’t it?)

      Big Al

      • On April 16, 2012 at 5:20 am,
        D.Brophy says:

        Al it doesn`t matter when I was born my mom wanted me called Dan,not Dennis, but my dad wanted nothing but all Irish names, but he conceded to having me called Denis, that`s french for Dennis, they my family(my dad, mom, brothers) had and finally my brothers call me Den. So it doesn`t matter.

        • On April 16, 2012 at 9:08 am,
          Big Al says:

          Gotcha!

          Big Al

  11. On April 14, 2012 at 10:37 am,
    Marc says:

    Big Al,
    Frank Holmes and James Turk are somewhat having divergent views. I would think James T. would think that a saving plan would have a little more that 5 to 10% of your assets in G and S. Because of counter party risk and fiat currency debasement – What good is it if your gains are getting wiped out by much greater macro factors that we discuss here ad nauseum? I think, for now, I will stick with a MUCH higher percentage of bullion, given the insanity out there in the global markets. Diversification is imperative but, in my humble opinion the 25-25-25-25 rule DOES NOT apply here. Maybe we should ALL go into this a little more deeply here on the blog. I am BY FAR not the prettiest baby in the nursery….matter of fact, I might need major reconstructive surgery when I can get it :) Am I nuts? What do you guys think?
    All the best,
    Marc
    BTW, I think Frank H. is one of the best “experts” out there. But I am more in James T. camp right now.

    • On April 14, 2012 at 11:57 am,
      Jerry O^OTB says:

      never ask an open question, concerning your sanity, for if you do,
      many will contemplate the accurracy of your comment.

      • On April 14, 2012 at 12:27 pm,
        Marc says:

        Jerry,
        My sanity or insanity is a foregone conclusion – its up to you to decide! Ha, ha!

    • On April 14, 2012 at 2:28 pm,
      Mark Alan says:

      I believe Turk still has that “old fashion” investment banker in him. He is a conservative guy and to be honest, I have heard him on two other interviews in the past, where he says VERY CLEARLY that “the old adage was 5% to 10% of your portfolio, but with the severity of what’s coming out of Europe and the macro-economic pictures that are not being discussed – Japan, the U.S., and Great Britian, one should REALLY CONSIDER A STRONGER ALLOCATION TO THE METALS. Because in the end, all fiat currencies are going to lose substantial value and you want gold and silver to protect your purchasing power.”

      I am 40% metals my friend, 45% cash, and 15% junior mining/energy

      • On April 14, 2012 at 2:32 pm,
        Marc says:

        Amen….Mark A……Amen

        • On April 14, 2012 at 4:17 pm,
          Marc says:

          I just listened to Simon’s interview again. He just nailed the point that, in my humble opinion, 5 to 10% of a safe haven Investment (asset) should be increased significantly. Sometimes unprecedented times means going out of your particular comfort level. These times call for that! I don’t think you can make an argument otherwise.
          Marc

          • On April 14, 2012 at 4:31 pm,
            Mark Alan says:

            See!? There is a few smart men out there – LOL!!!

      • On April 16, 2012 at 9:10 am,
        Big Al says:

        Morning Mark A,

        I applaud your diversification. I have simply chosen to be 25%, 25% and 50%.

        Best,

        Big Al

  12. On April 14, 2012 at 11:03 am,
    Big Al says:

    Marc,

    Having more than 5% – 10% in physical is a personal choice. Comfort level is very important.

    I just like to minimize my risk realizing at the same time I am somewhat minimizing my upside.

    Big Al

  13. On April 14, 2012 at 11:58 am,
    g kaiser says:

    nice place to hear a bit of informed new. Nice to see an open comment box!
    Thanks

    • On April 14, 2012 at 12:30 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Thanks g kaiser,

      Been doing this for awhile with our “family”

      Big Al

  14. On April 14, 2012 at 1:00 pm,
    Mark Alan says:

    Hey everyone

    I was watching this video analysis of the recent COT report done by gentlemen who does have a tendency to be a little,,,ohhhh….shall we say….”overly optimistic” Nevertheless, I thought the analysis was very good but the price projections i am not too keen on, at least in the short term to intermediate term. Check it out!

    http://www.superforce60.com/video/2012apr13spcotrtvid1/2012apr13spcotrtvid1.html

    • On April 14, 2012 at 1:45 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Thanks Mark A, I will.

      Big Al

    • On April 14, 2012 at 2:48 pm,
      Jerry O^OTB says:

      MARK…..THIS IS A GREAT POST…ON THE COT…..THANKS…..

      • On April 14, 2012 at 2:52 pm,
        Jerry O^OTB says:

        I like the post, because I have mentioned the $150 on silver …now, I have
        heard someone else, who sounds crazy….

        • On April 14, 2012 at 3:20 pm,
          Mark Alan says:

          Glad you like Jerry!

          I don’t doubt his future price projection one bit, in fact, I would not be surprised if it were to go higher. I just don’t like “time frame” for his projections. He gets a little “gung ho”, but at least he is a ardent gold bull!

  15. On April 14, 2012 at 1:31 pm,
    D.Brophy says:

    Could paper ETF`s on gold, silver, Pt, Pd, Rh be driving down physical gold price ? In that these paper ETF`s have been over sold. Do they become just more like bonds with nothing to back them up ? When rhodium was made into an ETF is was fairly high in cost yet it hardly ever moved or was selling. Now this might be what has kept gold at an even keel(no pun) price or what has hedged gold from going into the stratosphear as to price. All this paper is what the banksters might be doing to kept the price at where it is today. Since the evil empire(Obamaville) it used to be called the old soviet union by Reagan, but its now us. Obama another Castro my God, that`s right.

    • On April 14, 2012 at 4:55 pm,
      Clay says:

      The US has met the enemy and the enemy is its Federal Government. Seditious words yes, but the truth often is.

      One thing is certain even if such words are labeled sedition by the Fed and that would be the end of the dollar as world currency. So the Federal Government and all its power must weigh the extent to which it will persecute its own citizens under sedition with the consequences of dollar loss being accepted in response to world reaction. Certainly someone at the Fed or its associates has this concern, Jim Rickards if no one else, but prosecuting good Americans for sedition would have severe consequences. Unfortunately, the people running the Fed, White House and Capital hill are not very smart, otherwise they would not have gotten themselves and us in this situation. Kind of puts a whole new spin into Political correctives.

      • On April 16, 2012 at 4:29 am,
        D.Brophy says:

        As you have said the people running the Fed, White House, and Capital Hill are not smart that`s right but the people the voters themselves are oblivious to the fact of what`s going on with the currency or anything that matters in life in general. Its as if the people are on some drug(boze) trip down at some flop house in the middle of no where, dreaming. Just think of all those who went off to fight for the Union during the Civil War, or the rough-riders of Teddy Roosevelt they went like it was a way off to get out of working, or some week-end warrior type who went out for some glory, then ended up just fighting for his life at the end. As far as the end of the dollar is concerned, its the end of a way of life that is so terrible. Its going to be like those starting again in the old South at the end of the Civil War. History repeats itself over and over again. If the general population had had more heart knowledge of the God of the Bible, perhaps they could have had more consciousness of what might be happening today. But thinking back to the American Revolution they that had composed it had what we have here in this group of thinkers have – the same moral fiber of consciousness we`band of brothers/sisters`have what was like our forefathers had forethought.

      • On April 16, 2012 at 9:14 am,
        Big Al says:

        Morning Clay,

        When you refer to the people running the Fed, White House and Capital HIll, I assume that you are not just discussing the current time frame, but going back at least 25 years or longer!

        Am I correct?

        Big Al

    • On April 16, 2012 at 9:04 pm,
      Bron Suchecki says:

      Just because an ETF is a paper instrument, doesn’t mean they don’t have physical behind them. The ETFs certainly have a lot of issues with their legals, but they do have the physical metal and as a result have been impacting the price.

      You may have a point with futures, as that can just be one paper long versus one paper short, although any net difference is arbitraged back into the over the counter spot market.

  16. On April 14, 2012 at 4:08 pm,
    Marc says:

    Big Al,
    Simon M.’s about Paul K’s comments is the PERFECT analogy. Our kidney and liver are about gone and we keeping drinking and drinking and drinking…………….great comment!

    • On April 16, 2012 at 9:15 am,
      Big Al says:

      As I have said earlier, that is a great analogy.

      Big Al

  17. On April 14, 2012 at 6:04 pm,
    Keep Stacking says:

    Hi Big Al,
    Great show again. Segment 7 with Ron Hera connected many dots for me on the US (petro) dollar. Many thanks

  18. On April 14, 2012 at 6:29 pm,
    Mark Alan says:

    Now here is a country that got it’s act together and is fighting the corruption of the bankers! Frosty! REALLY FROSTY!!!

  19. On April 14, 2012 at 6:30 pm,
    Mark Alan says:
    • On April 16, 2012 at 9:15 am,
      Big Al says:

      Thanks Mark A,

      Big Al