Weekend Show – Sat 5 May, 2012

Clearing up false information on companies

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In this show Al discusses:



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Featuring:
Al KorelinRick HonsingerRob GreyMartin ShefskyRoger WiegandBruce Bragagnolo
Gary CopeBen Whiting

Comments:
  1. On May 5, 2012 at 4:25 am,
    MissiveDuTexas says:

    I understand we`re talking mostly about juniors here that do not have the influence or power of the majors, but once the international financiers pull the rug under everyone`s feet, we can all counter their agenda by implementing “raw materials economics” at the local level. Counties have the power to implement a script approach, and matching this with “raw materials economics” will bring back real wealth and growth to the economy.

    Depression scrip was used during the depression era (1930′s) as a substitute for government issued currency. Because of the banks closing temporarily and the lack of physical currency, someone had to come up with another form of currency to keep the economy going and a way for trade to continue.

    http://www.depressionscrip.com/

  2. On May 5, 2012 at 4:28 am,
    MissiveDuTexas says:

    Starting in the 1920s and going through the 1960s, several entrepreneurial gentlemen of profound knowledge and inquisitive nature about macro-economics became the “Founding Fathers of Raw Material Economics.” They re-examined the Franklin-Jefferson principles by researching and analyzing the nation’s economic records. Their findings are summarized above.

    Those “Founding Fathers” were: Charles B. Ray, Carl H. Wilken, Dr. John Lee Coulter and J. Carson Adkerson. They were ably followed by such stalwarts as Arnold “Red” Paulson, Vince Rossiter, Merle Willard, Kermit Couch and others.

    The NORM “Hall of Fame” located at this website provides a brief history and tribute to these down-to-Earth visionaries.

    http://www.normeconomics.org/birth.html

  3. On May 5, 2012 at 4:43 am,
    MissiveDuTexas says:

    I read this statement and can really grasp what a threat this approach is for the debt-based monetary system controllers. They`ve been suppressing this information for decades now. Time to wake up.

    ” The health, robustness, and sustainability of the American economy is directly tied to the production of raw materials and the price at which those raw materials first enter into commercial channels. When raw materials enter trade channels at prices in balance with the prices of labor and capital, the economy operates on an earned-income basis with no buildup of public and private debt. Conversely, when raw materials enter trade channels at less-than-parity prices with labor and capital, the economy lacks sufficient earned dollars to operate on an debt-free basis, therefore, public and private debt accumulates.

    That simple explanation of raw material economics explains why America today suffers from more than $50-trillion in public and private debt and why much of it is unserviceable.”

    http://www.normeconomics.org/

  4. On May 5, 2012 at 4:48 am,
    MissiveDuTexas says:

    Somehow the system keeps reposting these duplicates with all new comments, not my doing Al.

    • On May 5, 2012 at 10:39 am,
      Big Al says:

      Morning Missive,

      Many thanks for this information. I will some a fair amount of time on this.

      Best,

      Big Al

      • On May 6, 2012 at 5:37 am,
        MissiveDuTexas says:

        If you so choose, I would suggest to start by reading “Unforgiven” by Charles Walters. You will then be able to easily calculate how much wealth is simply stolen under the debt-based monetary system.

        The thing with this is that each city, county and state can also very easily calculate how much tax revenue they are loosing because this new wealth does not enter the market at it`s fair value.

        If I had money to spare, I would send a copy of this to every Texas state representative. The uproar amongst the tax revenue hungry would be quick.

        • On May 6, 2012 at 9:23 am,
          Big Al says:

          Thanks Missive,

          I will.

          Big Al

  5. On May 5, 2012 at 5:18 am,
    Bobby says:

    Poll:
    GOLD: Even though they think Gold is safe, the small investors are not buying Gold and Silver. Look at the dropping premiums and talk to the retailers. also, do your own poll with people you meet, they will say, “yeah gold is safe” do you own any? “well, no” Have you ever seen a gold coin? “No. Try it, I have for years and still get the same answers.
    REAL ESTATE: TR is totally correct. additionally, people dont need 2 homes to live in.
    Deversification: TR is correct, Do not spread too thin. One does not have to be in ALL asset classes.

    • On May 5, 2012 at 8:17 am,
      Marc says:

      Big Al, Bobby and all. My humble opinion:
      Gold, Silver, miners and cash PRODUCING real estate….that is pretty much it. I just got a condo in escrow in an amenity-laden complex in SD. Getting out the LAST OF my BONDS, paid all cash and increased my cash flow for my family. IF this deal passes through escrow – it is a SHORT SALE – I will fill REAL GOOD about this hard asset out of the banking sector, and I will get a return of around 5% (cash on cash). Oh, and by the way, I am getting it for 40 cents on the dollar! Wish me luck, this is a great deal and there are plenty of them out there NOW! BTW, B OF A is the lender and they are getting eatin alive on this deal – if it closes….no wonder banks are in trouble! In real estate – CASH IS KING!!
      All the best,
      Marc

      • On May 5, 2012 at 8:19 am,
        Marc says:

        Finally, I tried to get more diversity, but I am making nothing on my cash. No way am I going to be a “sitting duck”. Nope – No way :)
        Marc

        • On May 5, 2012 at 9:04 am,
          Marc says:

          Big Al,
          Quick comments on all the GREAT work you do on these companies. You are very much hands on and your “complete disclosure” and putting boots on the ground is very much appreciated. It provides a lot of confidence and streamlines the decision making process for all the outfits you cover. There is nothing like putting your neck out there; putting skin in the game and backing up your comments with cold hard facts/dialogue. Personally, I am now invested in approximately six of these companies you have brought to the table. Very important to note – I made these decisions myself….no other person is responsible for my investment decisions.
          All the best,
          Marc

          • On May 5, 2012 at 10:45 am,
            Big Al says:

            Marc,

            Thank you.

            Big Al

          • On May 5, 2012 at 4:30 pm,
            Jerry O^OTB says:

            DITTO

      • On May 5, 2012 at 10:44 am,
        Big Al says:

        Morning Marc,

        The little blond lady and I have done the same thing up here in Semiahmoo!

        We bought our first smaller condo at about a 30% discount from the high and will use it as a cash producer probably for as long as we are around.

        We purchased our second one at about a 45% discount from the high and will live there for a long, long time.

        Picking up my dawg tickets this week!

        Best,

        Big Al

        • On May 5, 2012 at 12:02 pm,
          Marc says:

          Congrats Big Al!

          • On May 5, 2012 at 3:35 pm,
            Big Al says:

            HI Marc,

            Don’t know if it is congrats or not. I don’t really see how we could go appreciably lower, but I have certainly been wrong before!

            Big Al

      • On May 5, 2012 at 1:17 pm,
        Bobby says:

        Marc,
        Well, I would not buy a unit without at least a 8 cap, would perfer a 10, but they will not be avaliable for a year or so. Also, I hear many poeple say they purchased property .40 on the dollar. Is this todays dollar, in other words 60% below current appraisal? Or is this the unreal dollar of past. Well, let me know how you make out. Is the SD San Diego or South Dakota? If you can see the ocean it might be ok, if not, well you know what they say. Perhaps after a career in real estate, i am a bit to hard on investors. I made many people rich with great buy way before the bubble. Now farm land…that is a different story. Good luck.

        • On May 5, 2012 at 1:31 pm,
          Marc says:

          Bobby,
          Thanks for the input and response. The unit is located in the pacific beach area of San Diego. This area is a magnet for singles and unmarried couples wanting to crowd to the beach. Additionally, when I say 40 cents on the dollar. It had a 253K loan on it and was in the high 200 ‘s when it sold back in 2006, I believe. So, maybe 44% of its past, bloated-bubble price. I too am a real estate guy. Your comments are definitely understood. I feel comfortable at a 5 cap on a beach asset that in NOT a paper asset. Very unlikely to get a 8 or 10 cap here. Bonds or payed for RE – to me, a very easy choice to make. As long, as it provides a solid POSITIVE CASH FLOW.
          All the best,
          Marc

          • On May 5, 2012 at 4:01 pm,
            Bobby says:

            Marc,
            Marc,
            I raised my family in Coronado, so i know PB well or did in the 80′s. It fits the Location, location, location criteria so you could go well, 10 caps were common in the early 00′s and I expect to see them again before the market turns, but nobody really knows. I go back and forth with buying real estate with cash, where you cant go wrong, but all big money was made with the fantastic leverage that it afforded. Nice that Cali has prop 13 to control taxes, but association fees could run rampant, also rent control possibilities could throw a wrench in the works. The other wild card is Cali itself, one of the reasons that I left the state. And Yes a 5 cap in todays market is fantastic, i suggest keeping dry powder, but hey, what do I know.
            God Bless and all the best,
            Bobby

        • On May 5, 2012 at 3:38 pm,
          Big Al says:

          Hi Bobby,

          I must admit that I know very little about investing in real estate.

          I purchased our places because I needed a place to put some cash and because I could not pass up a 2500 sq ft great home on a wonderful golf course.

          Best,

          Big Al

          • On May 5, 2012 at 4:04 pm,
            Bobby says:

            Al,
            I am sure you have and will continue to do well especially with your gold game. :)
            I am probably too negavite on RE, but never liked to catch a falling knife with any investment.
            Bobby

          • On May 5, 2012 at 4:05 pm,
            Bobby says:

            OOps, freudian slip… i ment to say GOLF game. :) Hey we should have take the derby tip.

          • On May 5, 2012 at 7:25 pm,
            Richard says:

            Al, I’ve also invested in real estate and bought and sold apartment complexes. I sold my last complex in 2006 prior to the real estate crash. It was sold to 3 fellas from New York that had REIT experience. They bought at the top and I couldn’t believe the price they paid. On a P&L basis, it didn’t make any sense to me. When the crash came the bank got the property back.

    • On May 5, 2012 at 10:41 am,
      Big Al says:

      Good points Bobby,

      I will say I walked past a dealer up here in Vancouver yesterday and, as I have seen for the past months, years, there was a substantial line of folks waiting to purchase bullion.

      Best,

      Big Al

      • On May 5, 2012 at 1:24 pm,
        Bobby says:

        WOW, those Canadians are smart, Apmex is selling 1 oz Maples $ 45 over spot, about 50% +discount in premium. All other US dealers that have reported this week say the retail market is slow, that’s all I can go by. How is gold sold in Canada? what sort of premium are they charging. Personally I hate to pay over spot, but tough to get any quantity without paying the piper.

        • On May 5, 2012 at 2:23 pm,
          Jerry O^OTB says:

          Bobby,,,, sometimes you can beat Apmex’s price at Lear Capital….
          the freight is the secret…where in the country you live will help
          a small percent….

          • On May 5, 2012 at 2:24 pm,
            Jerry O^OTB says:

            ps…but, the selection is smaller at Lear….

        • On May 5, 2012 at 3:40 pm,
          Big Al says:

          HI Bobby,

          I would suggest you get a quote from Kitco.

          Best,

          Big Al

          • On May 5, 2012 at 4:52 pm,
            Bobby says:

            Big Al, Thanks,
            My buying days are over, I went all in several years ago. My latest task it trying to figure out when to sell and how to get the best price.
            BTW, I did best by buying privately, follow the guys waving those “we buy gold” signs and you might find a great deal.
            One thing for sure, they will not be the guys that I will be selling to! :)

            Bobby

  6. On May 5, 2012 at 5:37 am,
    Dennis A says:

    I wish you`d asked Bruce when the 1st qtr. result would be out.

    • On May 5, 2012 at 10:47 am,
      Big Al says:

      Done Denis,

      I will be talking with him later today.

      Great evening last night, by the way. Great conversation, great food and great wine. We had a ball!

      Big Al

  7. On May 5, 2012 at 9:36 am,
    Tom says:

    Hi Al et al,
    I hear the term mid to long term bull all the time. Can anyone put a number of years on mid to long-term? It almost seems as though since Gold has been down so long we have reached a midterm. Maybe I’m wrong. Thanks Tom

    • On May 5, 2012 at 10:12 am,
      Richard says:

      I’ll attempt to give it to you in “innings”. I believe the secular bull market in gold is only in about the 2-3 inning. I have a number of reasons for that view.

      • On May 5, 2012 at 10:13 am,
        Richard says:

        By the way, those innings are based on price, not time.

      • On May 5, 2012 at 12:21 pm,
        John W. Robertson says:

        I think the 3rd inning, based on price, is exactly correct. Based on time, we’re maybe in the middle of the 5th…and we might go into extra time.

        Short, mid and long term are useful terms, but they’re also used as fortune-teller terms just because there is no definition to their time periods. In my own mind, short 3 years. But those change depending upon asset class, how fast a market is moving, cause-and-effect of a given situation, etc.

        As Marc notes in his response, the cause of gold’s price is not fixed yet, and in fact, it’s still worsening. From that alone, we can say gold can be expected to remain in a long-term uptrend (though as Matthew always venerably points out, in terms of real buying power, gold is just staying the same…it’s really a long-term down trend in the value of money).

        • On May 5, 2012 at 4:03 pm,
          Vortex says:

          John, Richard, and Tom,

          It is really intriguing and thought provoking to try and quantify where the gold/silver bull market actually is in time and price.

          Using the baseball innings analogy I agree that in terms of price, we are probably in the 3rd or 4th inning. In terms of the time factor I also agree that we are probably in the 5th, maybe early 6th inning or there a bout’s.

          Time and price discovery is a crystal-ball crap-shoot at best, but in all fairness we do have some very respected analysts and historians that have in the past, and continue to provide evolving solid and realistic projections as the world’s political, social and financial viability and stability continues to be called into question.

          From my non-professional, armchair analyst view point I think it would be wise to view this bull market in a pragmatic and conservative manner. I think we are best served by leaving the $30,000 an ounce hopium projections for the star gazer’s and concentrate on more realistic exit points and future actions. That’s not to say it’s not possible, just highly unlikely and improbable.

          A $30,000 US an ounce price tag for gold bullion means that the Mad Max series would look like a comedy movie in comparison.

          I know that no one was opining in on price points specifically, nevertheless I think it’s kind of neat and maybe even worthwhile to provide some perspective, because at some point in the future all of us are going to need an exit strategy from the gold and silver markets. It is vitally important that you are already game planning for an exit point and have solid facts, numbers and potential asset’s to buy to better validate and guide those parameters as the dynamic’s in the world continue to change.

          From a conservative standpoint and using the information we have access to today, I would use the price variables in the $4,500 to $7,000 US range. $4,500 in a conservative top and $7,500 as a parabolic blow-off top. These figures IMO are very realistic and provide data point to ponder.

          Additionally, to establish some type of time and price indicators I would use a time differentiation of a bull market top sometime around the 2015-2017 time-frame. I think those are very realistic time and price equations as we stand here today. Remember this is a battle, a long battle that requires patients, courage, strength and a whole lot of commonsense with a little luck thrown in for good measure.

          No bull market lasts forever and this one is no different.

          Big Al, I think a very worthwhile discussion on one of your superb upcoming weekend shows should be centered on some possible prudent exit strategies from possible guests such as David Morgan, Rick Rule, Bob Moriarty, Trader Rog, Rick Ackermen, or any number of other expert’s I may have forgotten.

          Even possibly Mike Maloney. I bet he would love to come on and provide some valuable tidbits of information as he see’s it. The names of superb guests are endless.

          This is a very important, but seldom discussed equation that is paramount for all PM holders to ponder.

          Even a high-tech, high powered NASA Space Shuttle while streaming into orbit at thousands of mile’s per hour will eventually need a place to land and so will PM’s investors.

          Respectfully

          V

          • On May 5, 2012 at 4:41 pm,
            Marc says:

            Hi Vortex!
            Yes, ABSOLUTELY! I agree 1000%. I have touched on the “exit strategy” a few times on this blog and I am so glad you readdressed this very, very valuable topic. I for one, am going to start pinpointing investment RE….apt units in SD (single, duplexes and tri’s), if things goes as planned. But, nothing goes as planned. I would certainly welcome your input and all others on this very vital topic. All suggestions is just frosting on the cake for me to ponder!
            All the best,
            Marc

          • On May 5, 2012 at 5:26 pm,
            Vortex says:

            Hi Marc, always great to hear from you!

            I really like your thought process as it relates to potential cash flow properties. That is precisely the types of future investments that should be sound options as we wind down this PM bull market in the years to come.

            But we still have a long ways to go so accumulate and save in gold and silver as well as other prudent assets and you and yours should come out of this generational global deleveraging and currency extinction event with the ability to transition to the next economic system relatively pain free.

            Good on you Marc, because an exit strategy is going to be just as important as when to buy.

            An additional thought as well is the option of never selling all of your stash, maybe just a percentage you deem appropriate while holding some bullion in physical form back for the kid’s or as a lifetime savings vehicle.

            Just a thought.

            V

          • On May 5, 2012 at 6:49 pm,
            John W. Robertson says:

            V,

            Absolutely, exit points are the other half of the equation. There’s a few criteria I have considered in the past little while:

            1. Technicals – I think some kind of blow-off top/railroad track pattern is the likely end game. It’s a long ways off of course, and some might be able to trade-in and out on the way up to that top. Of course, there are the Nadler’s of today who feel the technicals are already saying gold is at that blow-off top. But from my perspective, we have to watch the volume as well as price, and try to merry it up with that blow-off pattern some time in the future. We also have to look at the correct, underlying asset for the technical measurements, which are probably front-month gold futures or some repudiable spot price….that latter point might be harder than it sounds in the future.

            2. Fundamentals (surprise!) – whether gold will equal the Dow or not isn’t really the concern to me, but rather just how much value the USD will lose, and how people in general are faring when that happens. Also, we’ll have to look at the % of gold bought for investment. If it reaches something like 90%, that would probably forebode a top (and quite possibly sooner than that very high level…I think right now its only around 20%, but I’m just guessing…someone check World Gold Council or whoever is trustworthy on that).

            3. Alternatives – it’s pretty early to talk about it now, although Bobby and Marc talking about real estate is highly topical. I think when some investors start leaving metals for RE, and possibly even bonds again (thinking about this on the other side, after bonds have been burned to a crisp), that will be a warning that metals are falling out of favor.

            Glad you brought it up. It seems early, but of course, talking exit strategies never can be discussed soon enough.

          • On May 5, 2012 at 11:47 pm,
            Vortex says:

            John R,

            More great talking point’s as always. Maybe we’ll get this thing figured out before it’s all said and done.

            take care

            V

          • On May 6, 2012 at 9:30 am,
            Dennis M. O'Neil says:

            The key to as you say ‘landing’ is IN TERMS OF.

            In this monetary mayhem rodeo there is no 1980 Volker solution.
            Debt addicted societies cannot afford high interest rates.

            There will come a day when we no longer can export our inflation and our reserve currency starts the second leg of a round trip. When your most successful grand kids are a hair dresser and a tattoo artist something will have to give. Here is Mike Maloney’s take on in term of cash flow real estate.

            In the below video there are appearances by both James Turk and GATA’s Bill Murphy.

            http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vAAIwef3dOg

            Note the 1980 chart showing 816 ounces of silver buying a medium home.

            Also note how brief a period there was to buy at that level.

            Understand that the transition should be done over time at varying levels.

            Do not be a hero. Leave some on the table for the brave. Get while the getting is good.

            Also note John W.’s post about the dangerous direction of France and realize our real estate market

            is a sitting duck target for taxation and price controls. Slums get that way when ROI renders upkeep a poor business decision. Although Maloney seems fixated on cash flow real estate. When you lighten up it will make sense to spread the wealth.

            On the bright side…… Von Mises would say a credit over expansion will either end in a deep deflationary recession or the destruction of the currency involved. Understand there is an unfortunate third option which we often see in history……War and plunder.

          • On May 6, 2012 at 9:32 am,
            Big Al says:

            Morning V,

            Great points.

            My thoughts re: gold are perhaps a bit more conservative. (Same for silver.)

            These levels are just fine with me. That is not to say that I don’t expect the prices to rise. That is to say that the mining companies in which I am invested are very profitable at these commodity price levels. Investing in them is evolving into a simple profit and loss exercise. I am very comfortable when that is the case as opposed to investing based on drill holes!

            Have a great rest of the weekend,

            Big Al

          • On May 6, 2012 at 10:45 am,
            Vortex says:

            Howdy Al,

            You made some really good point’s. Realistically, I agree that leveraging yourself to extreme price points in the future is a mug’s game. The market can and will make total fools out of people or completely bankrupt them altogether.

            Keeping a balanced view of these markets is paramount to retaining what little cash we may have.

            Personally, I think folks that are banking on $10,000 gold and $500 silver and other such nonsense have diluted themselves with visions of riches beyond avarice. You can never say never, anything can happen but not realistic. Balance is the key.

            I would expect that before gold was to reach even the $7,000 blow-off top I stated. the PTB / political clown car brigade of numerous countries will in all likelihood implement some draconian measure or legislation that will effect price negatively.

            Conclusion: I agree with you, think conservatively and use reasonable price assumption’s and it should bode well for PM investors in both physical and mining stock’s in the end.

            Respectfully

            V

          • On May 6, 2012 at 11:46 am,
            Dennis M. O'Neil says:

            Focusing on $ amounts and blow off top calculus is entertaining but in the end who cares about the nominal top or bottom of anything.
            It is wise not to be involved in selling a top or buying the bottom of anything.
            Numerically……? it is just a unit of measure.
            We should focus on value.
            Perform your technical analysis on real term value not dollar denominsted dilusion.
            Concentrate on purchasing power not how many units of whatever you have.
            History has a way of just happening….we are about to live through an interesting part of it. When certain people who refuse to lose begin losing the rules change and things become interesting. We should all put on our big boy pants and enjoy the ride.
            .

      • On May 5, 2012 at 12:24 pm,
        John W. Robertson says:

        OK, now I know for a fact that WordPress can delete info. I just proofed my comment, and was using the greater than and less than characters (i.e. chicken lips), and it stripped out the info between them. Beware!

        What I tried to say in paragraph two, second sentence, was “In my own mind, short term is less than a year, mid term 1-3 years, and long term greater than 3 years.

        Don’t use the actual greater/less than characters or it will strip out the info between them.

        • On May 5, 2012 at 3:42 pm,
          Big Al says:

          Thanks John W,

          I certainly did not know that.

          By the way, I pretty much agree with your time frames.

          Big Al

        • On May 6, 2012 at 6:28 am,
          Marc says:

          John W.,
          Great input on the “exit strategy” topic……as usual. :)
          All the best,
          Marc

          • On May 6, 2012 at 1:57 pm,
            Big Al says:

            V, Denis, John W and all,

            Exit strategy is critical and we will discuss that soon.

            Regarding the comment about putting on your big boy pants and enjoy the ride, I agree with one exception. I am not really sure that the ride will be that enjoyable. I have a funny feeling that things will get very, very ugly. I also think that the beginning of that scenerio will happen sooner rather that later.

            Nothing is for sure of course, but I would say that the odds are in favor of my opinion.

            Stay informed and let’s look out for each other.

            Big Al

    • On May 5, 2012 at 10:17 am,
      Marc says:

      Tom, I will chime in if that’s ok.
      1. If negative real interest rates are still the norm, then gold/silver will prosper.
      2. You have to look at the current insanity of the ENORMOUS money printing to keep the economy churning – barely. Grossly debasement of the paper currencies.
      3. The US is under a severe debt-burden (AND Europe, Japan and others!). Mathematically impossible to get out of without causing extreme financial, social and emotional hardship on its citizens.
      4. The BRICS (China, Russia,Brazil, India,etc.) are creating a new paradigm of a new global economic infrastructure centered/anchored on hard asset currencies and a predominance of commodities as the massive populations come “on-line” in the coming years.
      5. There are other reasons. But, in a nutshell, fundamental supply and demand factors, hard currency necessities for a non-chaotic, non- manipulated financial system and a convergence of western world expansive credit histories and the east demanding a more hard currency formulated trading system will provide the vital factors for upward pressure on gold and silver prices/values for the foreseeable future. Where are we in this current bull cycle? In my humble opinion, not EVEN CLOSE to the end. Years? How is this? We are in year 12 or 13 of a 20 YEAR BULL MARKET SUPER CYCLE. There, I said it. Now, only time will tell who is right and wrong. I am not in this market to make a yearly prediction – I just want to be on the RIGHT SIDE of the trade when the enormous up-swings come in this massive bull market.
      All the best,
      Marc
      Hope that helps!

      • On May 5, 2012 at 10:50 am,
        Big Al says:

        Great contribution, Marc!

        Thanks,

        Big Al

      • On May 5, 2012 at 4:57 pm,
        Bobby says:

        Marc,

        I like your thinking here for sure
        Bobby

        • On May 5, 2012 at 8:51 pm,
          Marc says:

          Bobby,
          Thanks for ALL your input!

      • On May 5, 2012 at 7:32 pm,
        Richard says:

        Marc, according to my charts, you’re pretty close to the time frame for the end of this bull. Also, based on my charts and other reasons, I’ll make a bold prediction that we’ll see a price for gold at the top of this market of no less then $8000.00.

        • On May 5, 2012 at 7:58 pm,
          Big Al says:

          That Richard, is a bold prediction.

          Have a great rest of the weekend!

          Big Al

        • On May 5, 2012 at 8:50 pm,
          Marc says:

          Doc,
          As you know, like many others on this vital blog, I pay STRICT attention to what you and others have to say!!
          All the VERY BEST to you and yours!
          Marc

    • On May 5, 2012 at 10:48 am,
      Big Al says:

      Hi Tom,

      1 year or better.

      By the way, regarding your comment on gold being down. Go back to the beginning of this century or go back a couple of years!

      Best to you and please keep your comments coming our way.

      Big Al

  8. On May 5, 2012 at 9:54 am,
    Dennis M. O'Neil says:

    Below is an excerpt followed by a link to an article posted 5/1 over at KITCO. I read a lot of these but for whatever reason this one I thought interesting. I link to it in case you missed it. It provides great points for the inevitable debate with the empty suit regurgitating the latest Paul Krugman column, to wit:
    The “Mistake of 1937″ – by Steven Saville
    “Monday-morning Keynesian is an economist who always knows, with the benefit of hindsight, how much ‘stimulus’ should have been provided to the economy to bring about a sustainable recovery. Since these economists begin with the premise that monetary and/or fiscal stimulus helps the economy, if an economy tanks despite the concerted application of stimulus measures they inevitably conclude that the stimulus was insufficient. They never seriously question the correctness of the underlying premise.”

    http://www.kitco.com/ind/Saville/20120501.html

    Kentucky Derby tip……I’ll Have Another——provided track is FAST

    • On May 5, 2012 at 10:52 am,
      Big Al says:

      Hi Denis M,

      Remember man, hindsight is ALWAYS 20 – 20!

      Enjoy the Derby,

      Big Al

      • On May 5, 2012 at 3:50 pm,
        Dennis M. O'Neil says:

        It is a shame bad they pay you in fiat notes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

        BTW….I only bet the Triple Crown races and if I am lucky 1 nice day a Saratoga per year.
        That was a beautiful race.
        Go to the Sanita Anita Derby ESPN link to see a masterpiece!.
        I’ll Have Another!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

        • On May 5, 2012 at 8:05 pm,
          Big Al says:

          HI Denis,

          Another what? I’ll bet I know.

          Great day for you, congratulations!

          Big Al

    • On May 5, 2012 at 3:49 pm,
      Marc says:

      Dennis,
      You NAILED IT!! Great job!

      • On May 5, 2012 at 7:46 pm,
        Dennis M. O'Neil says:

        If I was a geologist and had the same luck I would call it a career.

        • On May 5, 2012 at 8:53 pm,
          Marc says:

          Funny….Dennis! LOL!

  9. On May 5, 2012 at 12:08 pm,
    John W. Robertson says:

    I was looking into the candidates for France’s elections (plural, as their run-offs seem to go on for months).

    It looks like the Left are going to take it, by a guy named Francois Holland. Here’s some of his campaign platforms (source Wikipedia):

    * Income tax would be raised to 75% for incomes beyond one million euros;
    * the retirement age would be brought back to 60 (with a full pension) for persons who have worked 42 years;
    * 60 000 jobs cut by Nicolas Sarkozy in public education would be recreated.
    * Homosexual couples would have the right to marry and adopt
    * Residents without European Union passports would be given the right to vote in local elections after five years of legal residency.
    * regulate rises in rent;
    * use punitive measures to compel towns and cities to apply the 2000 law on solidarity and urban renewal (fr), which mandates the providing of social housing;
    * provide public lands for the building of social housing.

    Sound pretty bad? Well, wait until you read about this next guy, Jean-Luc MĂ©lenchon. This is the real reason I decided to leave a comment. After Hollande, he was the next most popular left-of-center candidate, and it shows you what’s on the minds of the French right now. Brace yourselves:

    * proposed raising the minimum wage to €1,700; (that’s per month)
    * setting a maximum wage differential of 1 to 20 in all businesses, so that employers wishing to increase their own salaries would also have to increase those of their employees;
    * setting social and environmental norms which businesses would have to respect in order to receive public subsidies;
    * supporting social enterprises through government procurement;
    * taxing imports which do not meet certain social and environmental norms;
    * reestablishing 60 as the legal retirement age with a full pension.
    * There would be an “ecological planification” towards a green, sustainable economy, backed by a “green rule” (règle verte) to be inscribed in the Constitution.
    *proposed a progressive taxation, with higher taxes on the wealthy and a 100% tax rate (my emphasis) beyond an income of €360,000 (thereby creating a maximum wage);
    * expatriate French nationals established in a country with a lower tax rate than in France would pay the difference in tax in France.
    * Businesses creating jobs, paying higher wages and/or providing training would receive tax cuts. (at least he got one right)
    * Healthcare costs would be fully reimbursed by the state, and the right to die would be recognised.
    * The right to abortion would be secured through inclusion in the Constitution.
    * Homosexual couples would have the right to marry and adopt.
    * Naturalisation of foreign residents would be facilitated, and foreign residents would have the right to vote in local elections.
    * all elections would be based on proportional representation, with gender parity.

    • On May 5, 2012 at 12:21 pm,
      Big Al says:

      HI John W,

      This is very interesting to say the least.

      You know, something that I find interesting is the fact that people do not realize the success of true free markets.

      France, at one time, was an incredibly strong country and look where it is today.

      I personally have absolutely no desire to visit France. Most of the folks don’t want me there anyway. They would like my tourist dollars but they would probably prefer that I spend them without coming to their place.

      Europe really is a great example of the “something for nothing” mentality.

      That is a bit of a broad generalization as I am sure that many of the people are warm, friendly and intelligent.

      Last comment, look what happened to Russia with their “grand experiment”!

      Big Al

      • On May 5, 2012 at 12:31 pm,
        John W. Robertson says:

        France is like a talented sports team that just keeps screwing-up. They are a nuclear power. They have some very bright scientists. They are centrally located in Europe. They have vacation spots second to none. And they keep scaring the world away, with their attitudes, policy and taxes.

        Thanks for the great show…nice to hear Rick talk about the silver smelter. Formation rides again.

        • On May 5, 2012 at 3:44 pm,
          Big Al says:

          Hi John W,

          Yep, I do not understand the French.

          Formation should be fine!

          Big Al

    • On May 5, 2012 at 12:47 pm,
      Dennis M. O'Neil says:

      Informative post John W.
      MĂ©lenchon might as well reinstate the Assignat and the Guillotine.
      Francois Holland is not much of an improvement.
      What must Germany be thinking?
      I note all of the denomination are in Euros…. which assumes it will exist indefinitely.
      Who is going to pony up for France to act like Greece.
      It is one thing if one on your kids is a spendthrift….you make thoughtful provisions.
      But when your neighbors kids are all spendthrifts and somehow you or on the hook for funding their antics it becomes intolerable.
      Like a teapot with a broken release valve…..this will not end well.
      After all was said and bloody done in the French Revolution….Napoleon consolidated power with a gold coin.

      • On May 5, 2012 at 6:58 pm,
        John W. Robertson says:

        Dennis,

        I guess with 100% taxation, even on expats, the theory is they’ll have plenty of euros to pay for pie-sky policy “dreams”. Monaco is already a bit crowded, but any rich French have probably long ago left for it. It sounds like The Revolution never ended. Let’s just hope the Dems don’t draw upon too many of those ideas.

      • On May 5, 2012 at 7:57 pm,
        Big Al says:

        Hi Denis,

        Just got back from Vancouver.

        I hate to say it, but France is a powder keg waiting to explode and cause a lot of collateral damage!

        Big Al

        • On May 5, 2012 at 10:05 pm,
          Dennis M. O'Neil says:

          I hate to say John W. and Al that currency decay leading to the next War is the heart beat of history. I hope someday this sick cycle meets logistical challenges.

          • On May 6, 2012 at 2:00 pm,
            Big Al says:

            Don’t disagree, Denis M!

            Big Al

  10. On May 5, 2012 at 3:30 pm,
    MissiveDuTexas says:

    BTW guys, just my two cents here.

    I’m sure if any of you ask around you will find in you community at least a few individuals who went through something like similar to the following.

    A guy finds a great piece of land (location, location, location) and goes to the bank for a loan. The bank manager, agreeing that this property is great, issues a progressive loan, where as the house is build, portion of the loan will be issued for defined milestone. In the meantime, the manager starts to covet the property. He knows any technicality can justify withholding the next portion of the loan, therefore stalling completion of the work, and eventually, if the loanee cannot find funds elsewhere, he`ll be able to foreclose on the property, the loanee loosing everything.

    That is how I`ve always seen juniors involved in bank loans for each step until production. Financial Statements certainly do not disclose the “technicalities” of all the loans commitments. The owners of the ordinary shares are taking all the risks without full awareness of the risk their funds are exposed to.

    Some companies are considering issuing their dividends in gold. Great. I`d like to see some disclose the full extent of the risk they take with loan commitments, particularly those in production with positive cash flows. The rest I consider too risky for my hard earned money.

    • On May 5, 2012 at 8:08 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Evening Missive DuTexas,

      I will comment on this in the coming week.

      My experience has been in a bit of a different direction.

      Best,

      Big Al

  11. On May 5, 2012 at 4:03 pm,
    Steve says:

    Who’s who in the zoo?God still reighns all of it.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QcvjoWOwnn4
    steve

    • On May 5, 2012 at 7:13 pm,
      John W. Robertson says:

      You know, I’ve heard about this speech but I never saw the movie yet…thx for posting.

    • On May 5, 2012 at 8:08 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Of course He does, Steve!

      Big Al

    • On May 5, 2012 at 9:57 pm,
      Dennis M. O'Neil says:

      Wow…why have I never seen that?

  12. On May 5, 2012 at 5:44 pm,
    Frank says:

    Al, I would like one clarification. Formation Metals is your sponsor and you have expressed you are friends with the executives, but do you hold any shares in this company? No offense, maybe you have made this clear elsewhere and I missed it. .

    • On May 5, 2012 at 8:10 pm,
      Big Al says:

      HI Frank,

      The only reason I do not own any shares at this point is because of personal financial conditions.

      Tell you what, I will definitely buy some share this Wednesday. (Three business days after today as I always disclose.)

      You got my word, man!

      Big Al

  13. On May 5, 2012 at 7:25 pm,
    Jed Davis says:

    Timmins, Exeter and Extorre are solid juniors with proven management and proven resource. At these prices, I know of no better junior companies with which to put my money into. While others are nervous and have been shaken out, I am backing up the truck. If you know of better values, let us know because over the past 3 years, I have not found better Gold juniors.

    • On May 5, 2012 at 8:12 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Evening Jed,

      Don’t know if I would back up the truck. All I can say is that I am very comfortable with the management of these three companies.

      Best,

      Big Al

  14. On May 5, 2012 at 11:07 pm,
    Dennis M. O'Neil says:

    I’ll Have Another!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    • On May 6, 2012 at 4:19 am,
      Bobby says:

      nice pick, Dennis

  15. On May 6, 2012 at 8:05 pm,
    traderrog says:

    France is now moving commie left as we did forecast. This acclerates the bond implosion and now Germany must react to what France is doing. The Merkel-Sorkowzy duo had a chance to delay the inevitable but now they are finished sooner rather than later. The next event will be to see if and when Germany exits the Euro and Euroland committments to save itself. We think its too late as the tie-ups between nations and all the credits will take it all down. Warren Buffet was saying they are in trouble and the usa is safe. We are not safe it just takes longer for the crash. With no usa national budgets for three years, bush tax cuts ending, more taxes on dividends; and the president moving American faster left each day; I see a -38% Dow by the end of the year from the current highs. If things are viewed as worse in the media we get a -50% selling event. It the banks go on holiday the haircut is -62% or worse. The summer riots will be a mess
    Traderrog