Market Trends – Thu 10 May, 2012

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Roger Wiegand

  1. On May 10, 2012 at 9:58 pm,
    Conservative Canuck says:

    it’s 10:45pm mountain time and gold is down $8.10…If it were actually investors and not day traders determining the price of gold (ie. without the comex ) we would surely see a huge gain. China has been increasing its gold reserves 6 fold this year vs. last from my understanding…(but I welcome you to correct me if I’m wrong).

    Who cares if the US vs. EU are in worse shape beyond currency traders? The currencies both suck. People on this site, and sadly just 1% of North Americans, Europeans, and Asians all know this. In the late 70’s food and energy were included in the inflation numbers and everyone knew it was double digits and 15% invested in gold …today it isn’t and most people don’t. Just 1% own gold or shares in gold explorer/producers!

    I’m in P.TO/PPP for their 3:1 p/e and $80+ million in cash; if it drops so be it, it will be an even better value.

    • On May 10, 2012 at 10:00 pm,
      Conservative Canuck says:

      sorry that’s a p/e of three…and the stock trades at $3 any of you have nice rising stocks? I’m here to learn beyond my rant 😉

      • On May 11, 2012 at 9:30 am,
        Matthew says:

        I agree with you about PPP. I just finished accumulating it a few weeks ago. Goldcorp owns 31.2M shares; Tocqueville owns 5M; Sprott owns 1.1M, to name just a few of the top ten institutional holders. Cash flow for Q1 2012 was $0.24 per share compared to
        -$0.01 per share for Q1 2011. If presented with the right opportunity, I wouldn’t hesitate to buy more. Primero offers a superb opportunity at these levels.

      • On May 11, 2012 at 10:17 am,
        Matthew says:

        Should have said I agree with your whole post, not just regarding Primero!

  2. On May 11, 2012 at 12:57 am,
    har says:

    What freaking chart are you looking at?

  3. On May 11, 2012 at 12:57 am,
    har says:

    Hint: Don’t take investment advice from Goldman Sachs.

  4. On May 11, 2012 at 2:31 am,
    Martin (UK) says:

    Hi Irish
    SELL IN MAY & GO AWAY SEEMS TO BE FLAVOUR OF THE MONTH as I suspected. Current downtrend continues. If you all stop buying we will see the bottom much sooner, we can then back up the truck like in 2008!.
    I am keeping out of it at the moment :mrgreen:

    • On May 11, 2012 at 9:52 am,
      Matthew says:

      The bottom would come sooner still if people would stop selling. Buyers today can only pose a problem if they are too scared to hold through a dip tomorrow. The “Price Plopping Public” is notoriously easily scared out of their position because they go “all-in” at just one price point. Their actions are governed by the prevailing psychology of the moment, not by any longer term conviction based on analysis. They can’t see or understand trends. They generally believe that dollars (or even pounds!) offer more safety than gold or silver. They always end up price-chasing since they’re never bullish or bearish when they ought to be.

      • On May 11, 2012 at 10:00 am,
        Dan, calgary says:

        Or they are running out of investment capital to throw away and the mortgage payment is coming due. This would not be stupidity but necessaty.



        • On May 11, 2012 at 10:13 am,
          Matthew says:

          I count poor planning as stupidity. Those who run into that problem are obviously playing the short term. They aren’t investing or even speculating, they’re gambling. If they’re getting squeezed by living expenses, they obviously don’t know what they are doing.

          • On May 11, 2012 at 10:16 am,
            Dan, calgary says:

            You probably just described most of the small investors. That is the cause of the selling. Maybe assuming that they are the minority is a mistake.


          • On May 11, 2012 at 11:17 am,
            Matthew says:

            No, they are the public. I’ve never assumed they are the minority. If they were, it would be very difficult for anyone to make any money. If most participants weren’t perpetually on the wrong side, there would be no one to sell to at a premium and no one willing to sell at a bargain. Before anyone gets offended by this, it’s important to realize that all investors find themselves on the wrong side of a trade from time to time. The best investors are just better at keeping their alignment with the public to a minimum. Aside from those who are close to policy makers or those possessing insider information, we’re all in the same boat. We all succeed or fail based on our knowledge. Some of us have paid a hefty “tuition” to attain some knowledge – and the education never ends.

      • On May 11, 2012 at 10:07 am,
        Marc says:

        As always, Matthew, you, my friend, are EXACTLY RIGHT!! The dollar trade is like going from the “fire to the frying pan, boiling pot, inferno” or whatever you want to call it. It ain’t good….ain’t good at all…..very sad to see!
        All the best and have a great weekend.

        • On May 11, 2012 at 10:14 am,
          Matthew says:

          Have great weekend!

          • On May 11, 2012 at 11:35 am,
            Dan, calgary says:

            Thanks for the above reply Matthew. This site is a family and competition of sorts at the same time and I am trying not to pay any more tuition for my education. The separation between puplic and independant investor is a mind numbing task sometimes and will catch me again so my top priority is to keep my principle and have a nominal gain at least.

            Fear and greed and denial are dangerous for us all.


  5. On May 11, 2012 at 6:47 am,
    Peter says:

    Hi guys,

    This is a very different look behind the murky shadow scenes behind the precious metals markets.

    If Jim Willie at the Golden Jackass is to believed:

    It appears that the cartel bullion banks are being stripped of their gold by Eastern powers. This would help to explain why guys like Munger, Buffet would come out to make a “peak stupidity” claim that “civilized people don’t own gold and the only people who had reason to own gold was Jews just before the holocaust.” Even unqualified folks like Bill Gates are coming out to trash-talk gold, with Buffet continues on his vendetta against gold, as usual.

    Why is there a growing crescendo against gold in recent weeks, even as the price is very tame? The answer might be that it is these very (low) prices which are making it cheaper for their enemies in the East to strip the US bullion banks of their gold. Bloomberg just reported that “people are discovering that Gold has no intrinsic value.” Peak stupidity, indeed. They want people to sell their gold, because the bullion banks are desperate for it. Also interesting the suggestion that the bullion banks are attempting to restock their gold supply by naked shorting of GLD and then taking delivery of its gold. In the end, GLD might then end up as another cadaver.

    This is a very, very different picture from what we usually get. The implication is that it is the Eastern Coalition that is suppressing the price of gold in order to buy physical from the bullion banks at lower prices.

    On this, Willie writes:

    “The new paradigm shift is very much at work in the gold market, silver too. The gold cartel pushes down the PM prices with naked short ambushes, no collateral posted, grossly out of proportion with economic need or mining firm hedge practices, enough to engineer a 8% to 12% price decline. Limits are enforced of 1% gains but 10% swoons. But the Eastern Coalition, not to be confused with the Eastern Alliance, continues to push down the gold price in order to execute some important very high volume purchases. The coalition is comprised of a handful of extraordinarily wealthy Eastern families with heavy motive to disrupt the balance of banking power dominated by the New York and London crowd to the point of chronic hegemony and abuse. They had a $50 billion infusion last November to move the bullion metal out of cartel banks methodically. The coalition pushes down the gold price in order to conduct raids on the gold cartel member banks, exploiting their vulnerability with respect to margin calls on sovereign bond positions and currency positions. The UBS example several months ago was a textbook raid that has been repeated. My open guess is that the next victims are Royal Bank of Scotland, Barclays, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Citigroup. Keep in mind that UBS is not a minor player, but one of the two giant Swiss banks which sold out to the Wall Street and London banksters long ago. The Swiss banking system is far weaker than is widely known, the object of major lawsuits.”

    “Unique retaliatory treatment is reserved for Citigroup, as a result of special thefts committed against a certain family behind the coalition. This story will develop over time. [I wonder if he is alluding to the tungsten “gold” bars which were sold to the Chinese]. Information sources are less generous on details, an indication of the gravity of the situation and imminent important events to come. The gold wars are central to the global financial war in progress, with a great many sides and numerous arenas. Stratajema, you can crawl back into your hole, or else share your rich sources.”

    The interesting part I am talking about starts at the 7:25 time index.

    • On May 11, 2012 at 8:06 am,
      Dan, calgary says:


      Great info! The TSX.V is in a liquidity crisis for now. People are selling whatever has a bid and the JPM debacle will add to the liquidity issue. I don’t think this is the reversal yet. Still more downside to come although some of the micro-caps may move soon. This market sucks and I have reduced my positions and started buying lotto tickets for better odds at winning:)


      • On May 11, 2012 at 8:58 am,
        Peter says:

        It’s interesting that even with the JPM troubles the Dow is basically flat today. This suggests to me that the news was baked into the market before it became public. I.E. the big market players have known this was coming and positioned themselves accordingly. It’s not the little retail participant that moves markets.

        I wonder if this is why the DOW has been sliding for so many days. If this is why, then this MIGHT just be in interim bottom.

    • On May 11, 2012 at 5:28 pm,
      John W. Robertson says:


      CNN Money has also had a story this week “Why Gold Should be $50” (per ounce). This is so transparent, that the only reason for such a unified front on disparaging gold must be something big is looming very near. Buffet. Munger. Gates. Several news articles. Same 72 hour period, all admonishing gold. No cartel or group would do something so transparently unless they were really worried, willing to take the chance of being burned on their co-ordination of responses.

    • On May 11, 2012 at 6:36 pm,
      Bron Suchecki says:

      “the bullion banks are attempting to restock their gold supply by naked shorting of GLD and then taking delivery of its gold. In the end, GLD might then end up as another cadaver.”

      This doesn’t make any sense. There is covered shorting, where you borrow shares then sell them, or naked shorting, where you just sell shares and fail at settlement. In either case you are selling the share, which means you don’t have the GLD shares to give to the trustee to get the gold.

      The only way it would make sense is if you borrowed GLD shares, then gave them to the trustee in exchange for gold. You then deliver this gold to the person you sold gold to. But this means you are naked short gold in the OTC market, you are not naked short GLD. In this case GLD will not end up as another cadaver because the GLD shares were redeemed (extinguished) when the gold was removed from the vault.

  6. On May 11, 2012 at 6:48 am,
    Peter says:

    It’s me again,
    I came across this very interesting piece on on a very inconsistent Accumulation Distribution relationship. Have a look.

    Accumulation Distribution:

    Accumulation Distribution tracks the relationship between price and volume and acts as a leading indicator of price movements. It provides a measure of the commitment of bulls and bears to the market and is used to detect divergences between volume and price action – signs that a trend is weakening.

    • On May 11, 2012 at 7:32 am,
      Irishtony says:

      Thanks for the links, PETER i’m even more positive on silver now. Take care.

      • On May 11, 2012 at 9:01 am,
        Peter says:

        Yes, it’s sure interesting, ain’t it? How long can this continue? Things are getting curioser and curioser. I sure wouldn’t mind so see my portfolio reverse to the upside for a change.

        I pass time with day trading. I know that some consider it gambling, and maybe to some extent it is. But making a bit of money this way is good therapy, while I wait and wait and wait.

        • On May 11, 2012 at 9:19 am,
          Dan, calgary says:

          I am having trouble day trading so I am out of that mess. Silver may take one of its famous dumps here so JPM can suck the $2B back from the little guys. That will be the finishing touches on the right shoulder but could result in just a run out at the bottom with no big bounce back until the liquidity comes back after the next QE. The politicians are at the controls. Be afraid, very afraid.


  7. On May 11, 2012 at 9:19 am,
    Peter says:

    Turd Ferguson: Cartel Attempting to Transfer Manipulative Short Position to Speculators

    • On May 12, 2012 at 5:34 am,
      impeachemall says:

      In January, Jim WIllie claimed that Italian Unicredit would sink next. However, with two Italian-Goldmans in charge in Frankfurt and Rome, allowing Unicredit to go belly up was not at all likely at the time. Unicredit bounced nicely after the recapitalization.

      Now, talking to tfmetalsreport’s Craig/Turd, the Golden Jackass claims Deutschebank is next,

      • On May 12, 2012 at 9:29 am,
        Peter says:

        No one knows what’s going to happen. What we do is scrounge for information in order to connect dots, add on piece to the puzzle at a time. I am finding that the experts often don’t know anything in addition to what people in this chat forum know. None of the gurus we listen to should be taken at face value, even if the articles they put out contain valuable information. With regards to the Jim Willie article, I liked and shared it because we have been wondering what the HELL is happening, why is the price of gold so low when fundamentals are so bullish, and it provides a POSSIBLE explanation. It would explain a couple of things and provides a possible answer of the apparent desperation that comes through in the MSM drivel put out to discredit gold.

        Something’s afoot, but we don’t exactly know what. The “Eastern Coalition” theory makes sense. Someone HAS to be buying gold, and large amounts at these low prices, in view of the crushing debt and reliquification needs of…the world.

        • On February 3, 2014 at 7:55 pm,
          Soosoo says:

          I remember heraing that. I sailed on the ore boats in the late 90 s. I remember the fuss about that. I know it’s happening it’s hard to believe we’re that dumb (well sorta hard to believe). I know some countries have laws that virgin resources and land can only be owned by natural born citizens. I guess either way we look at it we’re screwed. Even if we do have another boom from any resource. We’re just laboring to give the meat and potatoes to someone else. Disgusting

  8. On May 11, 2012 at 9:39 am,
    Reo says:

    MARTIN…I also have been saying the SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY is coming for months I sold most of my gains back in early March. Next is the Summer Doldrums as it drifts down down..Might have somereal bargains in July. THis constant talk By Roger, John Embry, James Turk etc etc about a big parabolic move up in Gold and Gold stocks ANY DAY NOW ANY DAY NOW ANY DAY NOW wait for it don`t miss it etc etc is very ANNOYING. What are they trying to sell..subsriptions to their websites? They just rant along with the same calls for the last 6 plus years. Election this year too so that is going to change everything.



    • On May 11, 2012 at 9:59 am,
      Martin (UK) says:

      Hi Reo.
      Couldnt agree more, also Dan has mentioned JPM trying to recover th $2Billion. As far as I know they have many short contracts in silver.
      So look out everybody.
      Todays increase is manipulated to suck in buyers and then you will get whacked, probably next week. :mrgreen:

      • On May 11, 2012 at 10:01 am,
        Dan, calgary says:



      • On May 11, 2012 at 10:15 am,
        Marc says:

        You guys crack me up! It is all noise to me and most of us here. They can run but they can’t hide. Never, never enter these volatile market…with MONEY YOU NEED IN THE SHORT TO MEDIUM TERM….disaster. Prognosticate all you want. People, like Matthew, Mark A., John W., Jerry, Irish, Mr.C, etc. etc. I left OUT A LOT of folks here, just used names that are in this for the BIG MOVES in a secular BULL market SUPER CYCLE.

        • On May 11, 2012 at 6:26 pm,
          Jody D says:

          Keep stacking the physical! 🙂
          Jody D

          • On May 12, 2012 at 8:59 am,
            Marc says:

            Absolutely….Jody D……absolutely
            All the best,

        • On May 12, 2012 at 9:36 am,
          Peter says:


          I suspect different people are talking about different things here. On the one hand even the “worry warts” will agree that the bull market in gold is nowhere near over. On the other hand, I agree that there is also good reason to be worried.

          Irregardless of the fundamentals of gold, there is the reality of the teetering financial system. For those of us who are heavily into gold-related equities, the concern is that the markets could eventually crater, in case of a financial system collapse. Without massive money printing, I have no doubt that this will happen.

          The “bet” I am making is that THEY will not allow this collapse to happen. This parasite will be very careful to avoid the death of its host. This is my main hope and source of confidence.

          Ironically, as much as a lot of people here like Ron Paul, if he were to become president and QE were to be limited or stopped, the markets WOULD crater. So, for purely selfish reasons, I propose Bernanke for President.

  9. On May 11, 2012 at 9:40 am,
    Dennis M. O'Neil says:

    Conservative Canuck typed:
    “Who cares if the US vs. EU are in worse shape beyond currency traders? The currencies both suck.”
    CC it made me think of the following:
    When looking for a bride stay away from the whore house.
    When looking for a store of wealth stay away from the FOREX.

  10. On May 11, 2012 at 10:13 am,
    Ian says:

    I am one of the “SHEEPLE” and proud of it! In my opinion, the real panic, follower artists are not the Sheeple but much of the so called “Smart Money” like Hedgies, Berkshire Hathaway, JP Morgan, etc,etc,etc,etc……. I recommend for anyone who is interested that on May 9, on Mike Maloney’s excellent “” site, Theodore Butler has an article which clearly lays out the precious metals “PROGRAM”. When the Euro LTRO plan was implemented it seemed to be the concensus that it was anchored by swap exchanges with the Fed and the US $. I remember that this was nothing to worry about because it was a deal with “Combinations of Sovereigns that can”t default”. How soon we forget! We better hope the Euro Zone comes through as it sure appears to me that the US taxpayer “SHEEPLES” are on the hook for everything. At this point,our “Big Shots” probably want the prices of pm’s to go up but Eastern interests are now keeping it down until every last physical ounce has gone East and the ordinary person has nothing left to protect themselves. Where is the PM Industry? Who is a Leader? Why do they put up with the bashing time and time again? Thank goodness for the Sinclair’s, Korelin’s, Wiegand’s, Embree’s, Maloney’s, Turks, Butler’s etc,etc…. Share Buybacks and Dividend increases will tune up the shorts pretty quick! Regards, Ian.

  11. On May 11, 2012 at 10:20 am,
    traderrog says:

    The market problems are spread over the globe including banks, central banks, stocks and futures-commodities. Things are slowing down everywhere and normal trading and commerce is being drastically affected. We think that some semblance of normal will return but with more volatility than usual. I fear long term fundamental investing is finished for the intermediate and maybe longer term. Short term technical trading will work ,but you had better know what you are doing. Others should buy physical precious metals and mandatory sturr and select hard assets. The general markets in stocks and bonds will get smashed. If not before fall, certainly in September or October – Traderrog

    • On May 11, 2012 at 10:39 am,
      Peter says:

      TR (T-Rex?)

      If you believe that the markets are going to get smashed, are you getting out of those markets?

      If the markets at large will get smashed, we should also sell our already dirt cheap PM stocks. Agree?

  12. On May 11, 2012 at 11:26 am,
    Ian says:

    To quote Don Coxe as close as I can recall ” Buy PM Physical and Shares with proven ounces in the ground, unhedged and in politically secure parts of the World. NO MARGIN. I think it is implied to the level one is comfortable with in a diversified portfolio?

    • On May 11, 2012 at 11:49 am,
      Dan, calgary says:

      Aurizon released their numbers yesterday but I think it went down because of the increase on stock options from 7% to 10% of outstanding shares. The silly part is the stock price is down about 8% over the last two days. Bang! shot in the foot. I sold and bought partially back in at a lower price.

      I am trying to peek down the gun barrel to see if there is another bullet in the chamber. Aurizon has unhedged ounces and is in Quebec.


      • On May 11, 2012 at 1:44 pm,
        Matthew says:

        Dan, I like and own Aurizon too. It moved up over 20% in a few weeks. When it failed repeatedly at the 200dma, probably due to sector weakness, a little profit-taking turned into something more. I’ll be looking to get back what little I sold in the $5.40’s. In hindsight, I should have sold more. It’s a good company though -and getting better. It’s relatively low risk in my opinion. Niogold is looking better all the time. I think the odds are very good that Aurizon takes them out.

        • On May 11, 2012 at 4:13 pm,
          Dan, calgary says:


          I was busy yesterday morning and missed most the move. My only holdings now are Aurizon, Niogold and Aurcana. NioGold and Aurcana I picked up from this sight and are looking good although what this market needs is the sideline money in bonds to come back in. That may not happen really until November IMHOs.

          Thanks to all that we get along,


  13. On May 11, 2012 at 1:04 pm,
    Bob says:

    XRC NEW 52 WEEK LOW TODAY!!!!!!!!!!

  14. On May 11, 2012 at 3:36 pm,
    Jerry O^OTB says:


    Irish said something to the effect….that he enjoyed the gator meat , we had
    shipped him over St. PATICK’S Day,and it seem the queen enjoyed the feet and toe nails
    of the beast so much , he wanted to suprise her with even a larger treat , and he felt
    that he should dress up for the occation. , he also mentioned the large tooth ,which he was keeping for his lucky charm key chain was missing and wondered if Marc had taken
    it when he visited Irish at the Chicago jail, when they were at the convention.
    Well, anyway send the money to
    Jerry M..
    Lucky Gator Lane
    Sanford and Sun, Florida
    thanks for hellpinng

    • On May 11, 2012 at 4:06 pm,
      Marc says:

      Chicago jail….convention…..don’t remember…must gettin feeble, fragile and forgetful in my old age. I did wake up here, in SD with gator tooth in my mouth, though. I think I put it there to keep me from GRINDING my teeth at nite…beats the crap out of me where I got it.
      Sleep “full” in SD,

    • On May 11, 2012 at 4:41 pm,
      Jerry Mabie says:

      Please limit your donation to gold or silver bars and make sure you put a stamp on the envelope.