Market Trends – Mon 14 May, 2012

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Roger Wiegand

  1. On May 14, 2012 at 4:37 pm,
    frr says:

    Excellent Comment Trader Rog – Go away in May or hang on (for another day) as it could go the other way!

    I’m hanging in there – even after expending too much fire power on the way down – though thanks to the even lower prices I’m not really smarting, just calculating a similar outcome as in late 2008, when you could throw darts and made a bundle in pm stocks.
    Getting ready for another game of darts …

    • On May 15, 2012 at 4:24 pm,
      Jerry O^OTB says:


  2. On May 14, 2012 at 6:36 pm,
    wyn harter says:



  3. On May 14, 2012 at 10:43 pm,
    Ken says:

    Well, I said early this morning that I thought gold would hold 1550.

    What a market timer I am! Now let me look into my crystal ball and see what tomorrow will bring….hmmm….Uh oh….I see someone eating glass…er…it’s me…

    I will quit while I’m ahead.

    My guess is gold will hold 1550 for this week at least. But like I said Euroland problems will probably help the dollar short to mid term which could mean gold and silver get beat up some more but longer term I’m still bullish.

    But I’m no market timer. I would just keep dollar cost averaging and keep your allocations straight.

  4. On May 15, 2012 at 6:35 am,
    Dan, calgary says:

    Hi Rog,

    I feel for you trying to forcast in this crap. The Fed didn’t do anything at the last meeting of the pee-brained, so maybe this is the setup forming now for some sort of QE. Investors will sell in May and get QE shortly after to completely change their views. Then the Fed could take more credit for “fixing” things.


  5. On May 15, 2012 at 7:07 am,
    Dan, calgary says:

    Calgary housing figures up %30 over one year ago. I have lived in and around Calgary all my life and this whole province of Alberta is filling up with people to work in the Oilsands industry and the services that go along with a young and growing population.

    I mentioned an unemployed relative just out of university with a civil eng. degree and the person I was talking to asked for his application right away for Suncor Insitsu project. Just an anectdote.


  6. On May 15, 2012 at 9:01 am,
    traderrog says:

    Canada and most things Canadian is the place to be. The banks did not mess up and they are commodity driven. We think $1550 gold can hold up but under 1535 we got a problem. I took a beating like so many but the year is young and I expect to trade my way back to some good numbers. Big news this week is Europe is caving in politically on the austerity programs- Not working- Bonds too smashed and too much debt. NEXT THEY PRINT LIKE CRAZY UNTIL THE COWS COME HOME. Look for gradually rising inflation, precious metals rising like Phoenix from the ashes and a wild election year. Europe is toast and Greece holds the keys this week. When they fall, five more Euro-nations tumble behind them and then all hell breaks loose. Our top numbers for gold and silver through 2015 are now $156-$256 for silver and $4400 to $5,000 for gold. The next World War in 2014 is a jobs program. The hyperinflation will rip up the lower 1/3rd of global national populations. – Traderrog

    • On May 15, 2012 at 9:43 am,
      John W. Robertson says:

      I put the war sometime in 2015, 3 years away. Close enough to Roger’s prediction. Many of us here on KER know the cause and the ultimate effect that will occur. We’re far-out in front of the rest of those who don’t look at macroeconomics, or who are absorbed with celebrities (many of whom consider gold bulls to be far-out there, period). At least we have facts and history on our side, not blissful ignorance and government-provided statistics.

      California’s annual budget crisis (and soon, Illinois and a few others will again join them) should remind many of us well-fed, generally affluent North Americans that things aren’t as rosy as some spin them to be on this side of the pond. Remember…even when California ‘fixes’ the problem this year with more cuts and furloughs of government workers, it will still all happen once again in 2013, then 2014, etc. Think of that…Gov Brown, a Democrat, critiqued AH-nold who tried to do exactly what he is doing today. Brown’s excuse, of course, was ‘we didn’t know it would be this bad’. Really.

      Baby boom demographics, 0.0% interest rates and still very few international Treasury in-flow buyers (which is a Federal issue), harder-boiled selling of state and muni bonds, and on top of all that existing debt — state, federal, and personal — serve to remind us that the debts of 5 years ago aren’t fixed, and the fundamentals continue to get worse.

      • On May 16, 2012 at 7:47 am,
        castanheiro says:

        Hi John W R,
        Always great to hear from you and enjoy your words of wisdom. Keep an ‘ear to the ground’ and an ‘eye to the sky’. Our “exodus” is rapidly approaching. “)

        • On February 1, 2014 at 7:32 pm,
          Matei says:

          It’s posts like this that make surfing so much plauesre

    • On May 16, 2012 at 7:44 am,
      castanheiro says:

      Hello Trader Rog,
      That fact that you’re still sticking your neck out and trying to make calls in this convoluted, messed up, market is gutsy indeed. I don’t see how you can make any sense of the day to day gyrations. Too many factors that make it unpredictable to me. Appreciate you laying out your forcasts and all the good work you and Big Al do on a daily basis. I’ve got relatives in Ontario, so may have to make a run for it one of these days, ha ha, half kidding, just half.
      On a practical note. Put in a small garden this year and will be doubling my canning this fall. Am suddenly finding that I love seeing plants grow and taking considerable delight in discovering my ‘greenthumb’.
      Best to all,

      • On May 16, 2012 at 1:54 pm,
        John W. Robertson says:

        Thank you for you kind comment, Castanheiro. I always regard your comments with respect and interest, and have yet to disagree with anything you’ve written!

        I moved from a house 2 years ago, but I had a mandarin tree. You could eat the fruit from that tree even when it was green — it was so tasty! Fresh mandarins from November to April. Nothing like running one’s own garden. Just be careful…in some states, that could be ‘illegal commerce’.

        I don’t like talking of war, but before all of this is over, we could have another one. Gardens may not be absolutely necessary in North America where food has always been so abundant. But one never quite knows. The problem today is, while no one wants a war (just like America didn’t want any involvement in Europe, either in the first 3 years of WW1 or the first 2 of WW2), sometimes countries get drawn-in through other, unpredictable circumstances. Syria and Iran…two different catalysts, one region, and one of the world’s most important commodities in the area. But who knows…I still don’t write-off Kashmir or Afghan/Pakistan border issues. There are several regions that can reach critical mass in more ways than one.

        • On May 16, 2012 at 10:32 pm,
          castanheiro says:

          Hello John W R,
          You’re welcome and this comes with all sincerity. All I can say is ditto to you as well. You are most generous and magnanimous, a true gentleman, like Big Al.
          Best to you!

  7. On May 15, 2012 at 9:38 am,
    Dan, calgary says:

    I just heard on the radio that U.S. inflation is 2% and falling due to energy and commodities and manufacturing is up. All is well. Soundbites like John W. was talking about when the three stooges came out and poo-pooed gold. This is a staging ground for QE3.


    • On May 15, 2012 at 12:12 pm,
      Mark Alan says:

      hey Dan

      That’s what bites my arse! First they say they don’t use food and energy to calculate inflation because they are too volatile to measure adequately, but then they turn around and use them when prices are falling. See the b.s. behind all this? Of course you know, but I am amazed at how most people just don’t care and don’t even realize it. I guess the masses have become whores of phraseology.

      take care and stay frosty

      • On May 15, 2012 at 12:35 pm,
        Dan, calgary says:


        Great points. lies and apathy are a lethal combination. Aurizon punished today on good drill results. What the %$#^#%??????!!!!???