Market Trends – Tue 15 May, 2012

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Featuring:
Roger Wiegand

Comments:
  1. On May 15, 2012 at 1:37 pm,
    Jerry Mabie says:

    Most interesting. According to liquidity flow reports the commercial traders are buying the euro in massive size, in opposition to the large speculators and funds who are shorting it. There is an article on graceland updates that presents an interesting scenario.

    • On May 16, 2012 at 4:12 am,
      Jerry O^OTB says:

      Jm…thanks for the update……I am sure glad you decided to contribute…no kidding,
      and we did not chase you off….you have some great input……and besides now,
      I can appreciate your contribution more since Santorum is history….just kidding
      hey , have a great day…..go gators…..

      • On May 16, 2012 at 9:04 am,
        Stephan B. Feibish says:

        From a former Gainesville resident. I second that. Go Gators! and Go Shands Hospital.

        • On May 16, 2012 at 1:24 pm,
          Silverbug Dave says:

          As a gold holder, it feels I am down the road in Lossville at the moment!

        • On May 16, 2012 at 4:26 pm,
          Jerry O^OTB says:

          If you have lived in Gainsville,,,you must have loved the “love bugs”…they are in
          full force this time of the year…..My son, has been teaching Latin at Uof F….
          and I hated the love bug….

      • On May 16, 2012 at 11:59 am,
        Jerry Mabie says:

        OTB: I hear you. The worse things get the more I see what Ron Paul could do to resolve this mess. I’ve been in his camp since April. After seeing a portion of the “rules of engagement” our troops are forced to operate under I am totally in Paul’s camp. Bring our troops home. Protect our border and eliminate nation building.
        OTB you were one of the people who influenced my decision to re-examine the candidates positions. This brings up another question.
        What do I do with the “tolerance” cap. Into the closet for now along with the Irish gator suit. ….Go Gators…..

        • On May 16, 2012 at 4:30 pm,
          Jerry O^OTB says:

          Hang on to the hat…..we may need it…the gator suit will come in handy in case we need to retreat to the swamp….
          by the way,,,thanks for all the kind words…..go gators…..

    • On May 16, 2012 at 9:06 am,
      Stephan B. Feibish says:

      If Greece leaves the Euro. That makes the Euro stronger. Same for the other PIIGS leaving Euroland.

      • On May 16, 2012 at 10:54 am,
        castanheiro says:

        Hi Stephan B Feibish,
        Greece will be forced to leave, although the EU will make it look as though they left of their own accord. This highlights the despotic mindset behind Socialistic systems. Member states are only valuable as long as they contribute to the success of the ‘whole’. Once they become a liability, they are surreptitiously “kicked to the curb”. In Socialism, there is no love for one another, no consideration for each other, no care for individuals. None! This is the manifestation of the selfish, narcisitic and brutal attitude resident and operative in all systems of government that do not promote individual freedoms and liberties. Remember, Germany never did want to join the EU. Merkel would be all too happy to return to the Deutzmark, AFTER, she has obliterated all other industrial competitors in her neighborhood. Germany hopes to be the last man standing so they can once again rule Europe. History just continues to repeat, repeat, repeat…………

    • On May 16, 2012 at 9:06 am,
      Stephan B. Feibish says:

      If Greece leaves the Euro. That makes the Euro stronger. Same for the other PIIGS leaving Euroland.

  2. On May 15, 2012 at 2:52 pm,
    Dai Uy says:

    TR:

    Wheat seems to folow an uptick in corn. All CBOT ag commodities seem to be up today.
    A lot of wealth leaving Greece and headed to London; upscale housing real estate there up 30-40% this year.
    Query: Should Greece or some of the other PIIGS abandon the Euro, would that not make the Euro stronger?

    • On May 15, 2012 at 4:34 pm,
      EDWARD MURPHY says:

      yes it absolutely would; after another initial cliff dive

      • On May 15, 2012 at 5:19 pm,
        Dai Uy says:

        Edward

        And I can’t imagine how Greece, perhaps others, could possibly pay for necessary imports with a highly inflated(worthless?) drachma…………………….or otherwise engage in International trade………………..Reminds me of the old oil filter TV ad: “You can pay me now or you can pay me later”.

  3. On May 15, 2012 at 3:31 pm,
    Gatorman says:

    I’m looking for input or feedback on DUST ETF and ZSL ETF. I think miners and silver are going lower and want to hedge. Sort of like locking the barn after most of the horses have left. Antway I thought this would be the best place to gain information or experience with the use of the ETF’s. Appreciate any feedback anyone could provide. Thanks in advance.

    • On May 15, 2012 at 5:20 pm,
      Mark Alan says:

      howdy Gatorman

      Regarding those ETFs, be careful in regards to the taxes and fees that are imposed on traders and holders, especially the 2X and 3X leveraged ETFs. I think you can find all that info in the very fine print on their prospectus. I know I got a surprise last year regarding AGQ. Something to consider.

    • On May 15, 2012 at 6:44 pm,
      Richard says:

      Gatorman, if gold closes at this level or lower this week, the odds are it’s going lower as well as some of the miners. In addition, the conventional miners are going lower over the next few weeks which also may be a weight on gold and the miners.

      • On May 15, 2012 at 6:44 pm,
        Richard says:

        “the conventional markets”—-instead of the conventional miners.

        • On May 15, 2012 at 7:25 pm,
          Dai Uy says:

          Doc:

          I respect your judgment. Please see my below post and point out my possible errors/flaws in my analysis/ judgment. Do you envision a change in worldwide attitude in the next 19 month re PM’s?

          Best wishes,

          “Doc” Dai Uy(but only in a different field)

  4. On May 15, 2012 at 4:28 pm,
    Brad H. says:

    Gatorman… use ZSL with caution in my opinion at these levels. I believe you have a small opportunitiy relative to risk. Just my opinion. I’d be buying levered long soon if I was trading. It is relatively pricey and obviously double levered bearish. Just put a tight stop in, in case silver pops with short covering etc. etc.

    • On May 15, 2012 at 5:53 pm,
      Dai Uy says:

      Brad:

      I agree; I wouldn’t short the quality, large PM miners who will make a profit at $1200. AU or $20 AG and who have a lot of money in the bank and who are probably stockpiling at today’s lower PM prices as I believe things will look better sometime in the next 19 months, the remaining time left on these call options.

      If I were inclined to gamble, I’d track the Jan. 2014 Call Leaps with 19 months still left in them. They have been hit even harder than the equity prices and will continue to get hit hard if PM prices continue to drop which I believe they will. I’m not an investment advisor; just a simple farmboy.

  5. On May 15, 2012 at 4:36 pm,
    EDWARD MURPHY says:

    Rog- there’s nothing “sideways’ about the miners!!!

  6. On May 15, 2012 at 11:24 pm,
    Ken says:

    Dang, Asia markets down big. The Shanghai is getting Shanghaied.

    And gold down to 1532 and silver 27.34.

    Could be a very ugly opening tomorrow for everything.

    • On May 16, 2012 at 8:00 am,
      Marc says:

      Hey Ken,
      Yeah, I checked that out too – last nite…I made my coffee here this morning expecting a “sea of red” for us. Lo and behold, no…..8 am…gold up and silver up a little. I don’t have any idea what that means..for today. Heck, I don’t what anything means on a day to day basis anymore….long-term bull…is a definite for me….daily stuff…what?!
      Marc

      • On May 16, 2012 at 8:01 am,
        Marc says:

        BTW, all the best, buddy!

        • On May 16, 2012 at 9:07 am,
          Ken says:

          Gold at 1548, much better than last night.

          Hope all is well for you, Marc.

      • On May 16, 2012 at 4:31 pm,
        castanheiro says:

        Hey Marc,
        I know exactly what you mean. We’ll hang onto this bucking bull as long as we can. Best to you.

  7. On May 16, 2012 at 4:33 am,
    James says:

    “I’ll respect the vote of the Greeks whatever it is,” Hollande said. “Yet my responsibility is to give Greece a signal. I see the suffering and challenges that the Greeks feel. The Greeks need to know we’ll come with growth measures that will allow them to stay in the euro zone.” What exactly is “growth measures” oh yeah – well print or borrow more money. why is Greece holding the rest of the Eurozone hostage?

    • On May 16, 2012 at 5:17 am,
      Irishtony says:

      JAMES. i dont think it’s a question of holding the Eurozone hostage, i think its more like the Eurozone trying to protect the Bankers. if “THEY” let Greece go it could ! leave “THEM” with enough ammo to protect the other basket case Spain, if “THEY” keep Greece in at any cost , then “THEY” have massive problems…IF they keep Greece in then every person in the Eurozone payes, if it goes the banks pay . i know who i would pre fare to see picking up the tab.

  8. On May 16, 2012 at 7:20 am,
    Dan, calgary says:

    Either my screen is upside down or things are actually going up today. If money in general is heading into the TSX.V most boats in the harbour will rise. This forcast is valid for the next 3 seconds…….. okay, it is now invalid. :)

    Dan

  9. On May 16, 2012 at 7:25 am,
    Brad H. says:

    haha Dan…. what a messed up global market we are in! I was a bit shocked to hear about the idea that half of the tsx.v juniors may be wiped out in 5 or 6 months if the current cash flow situation persists. That’s, um. wow.

  10. On May 16, 2012 at 7:36 am,
    Dan, calgary says:

    TSX.V at 16 on the RSI. It can get as low as 12. The silver 1 month lease rate is rising away from the -.3% level. The -.5% level seems to signal a eminant drop but we could have moved away from that for now. I would estimate that the TSX.V would have to go over 1400 to save some of those stocks. Now at 1243.

    Dan

  11. On May 16, 2012 at 10:01 am,
    traderrog says:

    Ed: We have a list of about 25 companies in our newsletter. Most are underwater but they as a group have been mostly successful numerous times bfore as we trade two or more times a year and do not do much buy and hold. The few in the letter going sideways or up amounted to about 10 of the 25. We are going to soon cull the herd and add some new ideas. There will be shorting ideas this year which we normally prefer not to do. The Dow in the 4th quarter of 2012 on our forecast should be down -38% to -50%. Greece is going down and this bites the Euro temporarily. In the longer view most of Southern Europe will crash and burn and go back to other currencies if they can. There are powerful global banks supporting the Euro right now to the tune of at least eight of ‘em that do not want the Euroland experment to fail including the IMF, China, Japan and the USA. As we have said many times, just watch the USA’s far out bond trading on the 30′s. When yields begin to rise and price slows into a skid, its lights out, followed by global social problems and a set-up for the world’s largest job program, WW III – Traderrog

  12. On May 16, 2012 at 10:23 am,
    castanheiro says:

    **”J.P. Morgan may turn loss into gain”**
    Here’s an interesting article at Marketwatch on what JPMorgan may be orchestrating. Certainly, we all know that these events do not just happen. If ”accidents” are allowed to occur and then the subsequent news is released, then they have a motive for doing so. As TR has said numerous times, All these events are planned now.
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/jp-morgan-may-turn-loss-into-gain-2012-05-16?link=MW_latest_news

  13. On May 16, 2012 at 1:22 pm,
    Silverbug Dave says:

    We seem to have has several days when Gold was down $25 per day. Only another 62 days and it would be down to zero.

    On a more serious note, gold is down to it’s support at 1530 again, for the third time. It is normal, Trader Rog, for there to be 3 major visits to a high or low without a break out of that point? Usually, I have the impression that it’s three strikes and you’re out? Would it not be unusual for a market if gold held these lows at 1530 for a third time? Also we see the bullish momentum fading on each rebound at a lower level, giving lower highs on the upswings.

    By bet, though I am being pessimistic here as a gold holder and I am not going short, is that it will be third strike and out this time, to the 1400s, maybe 1430, the old high from late 2010 – and then a rebound to 1530 as resistance. It could then make a nice big head and shoulders at that point to scare the wits out of the goldbugs.

  14. On May 16, 2012 at 2:44 pm,
    shawn says:

    Big Buzz on the internet is that the Chinese are providing liquidity to the London and New York banks (Gold Cartel) but only accepting their bullion as collateral and taking immediate possession of it. They are also bringing out their own swift system backed partially by gold to bypass the Swiss, British, and American bankers.