Market Trends – Thu 17 May, 2012

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Roger Wiegand

  1. On May 17, 2012 at 7:03 pm,
    Marc says:

    The inevitable will happen……QE to infinity or else!

  2. On May 17, 2012 at 7:43 pm,
    Mark Alan says:

    Take a look at the Brazilian, South African, Japanese, and the German DAX. We are in a global slowdown. I wouldn’t get to jumpy about getting into the miners until we see gold FIRMLY close back above $1650. Chose only the BEST of the VERY BEST.

    Take a look also at the 10 year Tresuries! If we close the week below 1.78 we may see another 3 to 5% drop in the markets…or more. We are do for a bounce, but I am not going all guns until I get confirmation on the relative strength. Being Friday with option expiry, in for MAX PAIN to take full effect we need to push many of the stocks up just a bit, do don’t be surprised if the FACEBOOK IPO makes the sheeple all hot and bothered and lathered up to push the general markets a smidgen higher. Who knows. maybe we will hear something out of Euroland in the morning to give a “knee jerk” reaction to the markets.

    Also, the US Dollar traded up for 13 days in a row. That’s never happened.
    Very interesting.

    stay frosty

    • On May 17, 2012 at 9:05 pm,
      benb says:

      Mark Alan
      There is alot of curreny out there, with large money leaving europe, the american dollar might be the place large/liquid enough to handle it
      If it decides to go to gold………
      Imagine the bond/treasury market breaking down here.

      • On May 17, 2012 at 11:34 pm,
        Ian says:

        All the large amount of money leaving europe, and into USA, WILL!! end up back in europe through the Fed.

      • On May 18, 2012 at 8:09 am,
        Mark Alan says:

        Hey Benb

        that’s a good possibility, but at this time., I would not expect it until Spain resembles Greece. getting close though

  3. On May 17, 2012 at 7:43 pm,
    John W. Robertson says:

    Birth Certificate
    Here’s a new one on the birth certificate.

    JP Morgan
    I’ve been thinking a bit about JPM. I don’t have the time to dig into this right now, but consider:

    * We all knew JPM was being investigated for fixing the silver market (at least, I thought we did…notice how all that just died away).

    * Two weeks ago, we hear JP Morgan loses $2 billion. Personal satisfaction of that loss aside, big deal. JP Morgan can just as easily make $2 billion in a day. Why is this such a big story?

    * Last week, JP Morgan was being hounded by the media, with updates on the breaking story’ every day. This is a $2 billion dollar loss…not $20B, or $200B. Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, Fannie and Freddie and their big-box losses etc. make JP Morgan look like a kid’s lemonade stand.

    * This week, we now hear:
    – The FBI is investigating JP.
    – Shareholders are suing the company.

    Seriously? The FBI is involved because JPM lost private money in a private bet? This is all very weird to me. It seems a mountain is intentionally being made out of a mole-hill. I’m not certain I can see a direct link, but I’m wondering if its a subterfuge for upcoming ramifications for silver-price fixing. i.e. we nail JPM to the wall for a small evil, while a bigger one is laundered in the background. Sorry for the theory — I like to think these things out a bit more before posting, but it would be interesting if someone else has an angle.

    Maybe GATA knows something.

    • On May 17, 2012 at 7:48 pm,
      Mark Alan says:

      Evening John W.

      Interesting thesis. It might be true. You are a lucky man in that you can think. I try that and my head starts to hurt so bad I have to stick it in a warm dark smelly hole.

    • On May 17, 2012 at 8:37 pm,
      benb says:

      John, I feel the investigation of jp morgan began with Bill Murphy presentation of the Andrew Maguire information. Forget where, gata website has it probly. Mentioned and faded on occasion.

      The fbi investigating is definatly interesting.

      So, some people saying jp morgan is the tip of the iceburg for the derivitives market.

      How about, they blame it on jp, saying they are the manipulaters and authorities become heroes for catching the evil bankers and maybe estamblishing a free trading market. Gold goes to Malony’s prediction and voila, we repay the derivitives. or a significant prortion, it could be argued that due to this event, the world is in need of sdr”s, the oportunity to reset.

      I am certain there are other possibilities but being a PM guy thats the one I saw first.

    • On May 17, 2012 at 9:47 pm,
      Dai Uy says:


      If the Justice Department had any testicular fortitude, they would look at JP with the view of Sherman Act anti trust violations…conspricy to restrain trade….unless they have an exemption; the only problem being any unindicted co-conspirators may very well be Treasury and the Fed.

      • On May 18, 2012 at 10:49 am,
        John W. Robertson says:


        That’s just my point too…you’d think they’d look at something that really matters!

    • On May 18, 2012 at 4:08 am,
      Jerry O^OTB says:

      Yes John the FBI is called in because they are UNDERSTAFFED AND WILL NOT HAVE TIME TO DO ….DO DILLIGENCENCE……, OR is that do do intelligence…

    • On May 18, 2012 at 6:45 am,
      Dan, calgary says:

      Hi John

      Is JPM going to be the fall guy for Goldman Sucks? Great observations John. If this is not the case then maybe instead of one cockroach the whole “JPM Motel” is full of cockroaches.


      • On February 4, 2014 at 4:00 am,
        Maria says:

        DocI’ve posted a ceommnt a couple of minutes ago and about a half hour prior, that don’t show. Same post, so if it does show now, it’ll be a double post. A blogger platform glitch? Or something else? It wasn’t too long. Help.Ennis

  4. On May 18, 2012 at 4:11 am,
    Jerry O^OTB says:

    john w…thanks for the BIRTHER ISSUE… wOnder HARVARD IS GOING DOWN HILL,
    and the Law school stinks….

  5. On May 18, 2012 at 6:19 am,
    Dennis M. O'Neil says:

    Here is a significant development for MARKET TRENDS found on A-2 WSJ:

    Sen. Vitter held up the nominations because he felt they were both loose as a horny hooker short on cash. Apparently Chairman Bernanke just re-fueled his helicopter.
    What could be better for the Machiavellian Obama…… a fresh dose of liquidity to juice up the economy just in time for silly season.

  6. On May 18, 2012 at 7:13 am,
    shawn says:

    Please don’t take this seriously but I feel a major, major, enormous bottom had been formed in the price of gold when it hit $1530 2 days ago. It would be nice to hear or see what “The Doc” thinks but I’m sure Irish and Jerry understand what I mean and maybe they could concur.

    • On May 18, 2012 at 7:19 am,
      Dan, calgary says:

      Hi shawn,

      I am out on a limb with about 85% back in stocks. QE#? is a sound bite to trigger what they can’t prevent so they can blame someone else. JPM, HSBC and Goldman Sucks will all fail as ashes to ashes and dust to dust. Nothing escapes this axiom.


  7. On May 18, 2012 at 7:21 am,
    Dan, calgary says:

    I use HMD as a hedge. Horizon Base Metals Down. Why would it be rising when PMs are rising? This is the beginning of the next PM faze IMHO.


  8. On May 18, 2012 at 7:24 am,
    shawn says:

    I agree Dan, it’s called making the best of a painful situation. At least we aren’t living in Japan where I hear they are drawing up evacuation plans for 40 million inhabitants in and around the Tokyo area.

    • On May 18, 2012 at 7:30 am,
      Dan, calgary says:

      Hi again shawn,

      If you were kicked out of your home area would you buy gold and stuff it in the bottom of your trunk? How easy would it be to access bank money? Is this going to be the catalyst for QE#? so JPM and the rest can take a breather?


  9. On May 18, 2012 at 7:40 am,
    shawn says:

    Hi again Dan, I would buy as much 24 carat gold jewelry I could afford in the form of necklaces and bracelets and paint them black or some color other than gold or silver and vamoose with my family and if they won’t come I may take my twin girlfriends. One always has to have a back-up plan.

    • On May 18, 2012 at 9:29 am,
      Irishtony says:

      SHAWN….Twin girlfriends…….WOW………have they got a pair of twin sisters ? if so phone no. please

  10. On May 18, 2012 at 7:41 am,
    Dan, calgary says:



  11. On May 18, 2012 at 7:49 am,
    Dan, calgary says:

    I just heard the phrase “ban on short selling for the bank stocks” on BNN. When the gold run is ending there will be a “ban on short selling gold stocks” because they will have taken over from the cash type banks and gold will be the new Fed IMHO. Go Aurizon!


  12. On May 18, 2012 at 8:23 am,
    traderrog says:

    The gold and silver prices were discovered at the bottom on our forecast. The next rallies will be mild but could go a lot faster on responses from the federal reserve and Euro bankers on Greece deeper into this year. How amusing that tiny Greece has those bankers in a corner. Either they keep feeding Greece with handouts or that nation descends into further chaos TELLING THE BANKERS THEY WON’T GET PAID ANYTHING. Once that cat is out of the bag all of Europe sinks simutaneously and all the players know it. So; Greece gets just enough credit to keep the banker scam in play and pay-off the politicians while the rabble in the street starves and riots. It kicks the can but not for long. Watch Spain currently in a death spiral. When the chickens come home to roost in Spain it all caves in. Germany and France have lost control and the UK is running for Cover from the Euro. Gold and silver juniors (A SELECT FEW WITH 3 YEARS OPERATIONS CASH IN THE TILL AND PROPERTIES NEXT DOOR TO SENIORS IN STRONGER OPERATIONS) ARE THE WINNERS. LONGER TERM TRADING GOES SHORTER AND YOU HAD BETTER BE FAST AND NIMBLE. Those who have earned enough should go to hard assets only and quit trading not risking their earned pile. This is going to be the adventure of a life time – Traderrog

  13. On May 18, 2012 at 8:36 am,
    shawn says:

    Irish doesn’t like us using the term bottoms because he finds it hard to concentrate, maybe we could substitute the word pumpkin that has a similar shape but doesn’t provoke his senses.

  14. On May 18, 2012 at 8:38 am,
    Jerry Mabie says:
    • On May 18, 2012 at 4:04 pm,
      Jerry O^OTB says:


      • On May 18, 2012 at 4:04 pm,
        Jerry O^OTB says:

        OH…..GO GATORS…..

  15. On May 18, 2012 at 8:59 am,
    Martin (UK) says:

    If you missed it.
    “We now turn to the silver market and to the release of the latest and much-anticipated Silver Yearbook by the CPM Group New York analytical team. The firm’s latest survey of the silver market contains some eye-opening revelations insofar as the fundamentals of the white metal are concerned. For example, much to the chagrin of those who would still like to claim that silver is a monetary metal and that it could be regarded as some kind of stand-in for gold among less wealthy individuals, the reality is that of the 50 billion ounces of silver which have been produced over the past five centuries, only some 5% ended up being held by investors in the form of bullion or coins. The industrial and jewellery niches have consumed the remainder of the ounces. Case closed.

    We are now in a paradigm in which only about four central banks hold any silver at all (roughly 1,200 tonnes) and wherein silver, as money, no longer plays a role. This occurred despite the more than 133 million ounces of the metal that global investors demanded from the marketplace last year and that it was the fifth highest such level of offtake that CPM is aware of. CPM now looks for investors to add less silver to their portfolios in coming quarters, largely owing to the fact that the relatively high price of the metal means that fewer ounces will be required to fulfill specific dollar allocations in such baskets of wealth.

    As such, CPM notes that albeit 2011 was a pivotal year for silver (having traded at the half-century per ounce mark), that same year might also come to constitute a turning point in the white metal’s fortunes. While the market witnessed a record level of trading activity in 2011, CPM does not expect such fervor to continue this year, or for silver to break above last year’s highs, and it expects the precious metal to decline further throughout the remainder of 2012.

    On the supply side of the silver market, it was noted that 2011 witnessed a tally of 995.1 million ounces in terms of newly refined market economy contributions. Of the total, some 700 million ounces of silver were added to the market by the world’s mines; a 4% increase over 2010. China and Mexico were strong sources of supply and the two countries stand as the top players in the field. This year will mark the first time in history that the one billion ounce mark in silver supply will be attained.

    Scrap silver supplies experienced a 1.7% decline last year as Indian secondary sales dried up. On the fabrication side, demand climbed by 2.2% driven for the most part by robust offtake by the photovoltaics (solar panels) sector. Electronics-related demand did not fare badly either, gaining 4.3% last year. On the other hand, silver’s usage in photography continued to decline; its demand was 7.5% lower than that seen in 2010. If this trend continues, CPM expects fewer than 100 million ounces of silver o be absorbed by the photographic applications sector this year.

    We thank CPM Group for their continued insightful work and hope that you take the time (and a little money) to secure your own copy of the seminal Yearbook right here at their store. Talk about “value investing…”


    • On May 18, 2012 at 10:18 am,
      Marc says:

      Let me get this straight…let’s cut to the chase, ok? Nadler, Mr. accuracy, 11 years running, is saying silver is a non-monetary precious metal all of the sudden – suddenly stuffing out thousands of years of history….PPPPPPLLLEEASE! Are you concurring with this dribble. When a buying opp comes – you throw Nadler at US. C’mon. man!!!! Case closed….I don’t think so…case is wide open…oh, let me think when gold continues its massive bull market…silver won’t follow? That is all that matters…….
      Nadler has been spewing this crap for years – he is an absolute ___(fill in the blank)

      • On May 18, 2012 at 3:58 pm,
        Jerry O^OTB says:


  16. On May 18, 2012 at 11:58 am,
    John W. Robertson says:

    Below is a nice MSM article…no need to read much more than the headline or first 3 paragraphs if you don’t want to. It’s of interest only because:

    * It talks about the EU possibly splintering, going broke, etc., 3 months after the problem’s latest ‘fix’,
    * Involves leaders from the G8 (including newly elected Hollande from France), and,
    * Is a MSM article that sounds a lot like the commentary here on KER…3 years ago.

    So you see? We’re right, we’re just ahead of the curve by a few years. (Story of my investing life…which is why value investing works best for me).

    BTW, Martin, I appreciate the counterpoint on silver, but Nadler writes this same article — with different words — every week. He’s been saying this since $9/oz. Even if we accept the conclusions of CPM without question (something I wouldn’t), it’s looking at an empirical, very-long-term average. Look at the snapshot data point (if it were available) of what % of silver ever mined was held by investors when a currency lost its value. Even that statistic would be meaningless because heretofore, no currency that collapsed has ever been truly world-wide, although Roman and Greek empires might offer something close. Of course, silver and gold were very much valued in those times, partly proving my point. You’re a smart guy — I know from past comments you know how to research, and you certainly know how to buy a chunk of silver. What do you think?

    Anyways, here’s today’s cheery news article on EU financial-trouble amelioration:

  17. On May 18, 2012 at 2:21 pm,
    MARTIN (UK) says:


    • On May 18, 2012 at 4:00 pm,
      Jerry O^OTB says: