Are you folks getting nervous?

July 14, 2012

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In this show Al discusses:

  • Segment 1 – Al and Peter Grandich discuss economics and investing.
  • Segment 2 – Al and Steve Taylor discuss the possibility of gold confiscation.
  • Segment 3 – Trader Rog opines on the European economy.
  • Segment 4 – Dan Pisenti tells listeners what he is doing to protect himself financially.
  • Segment 5 – Al opens the second hour with David Morgan.
  • Segment 6 – Jeff Pontius provides an update on International Tower Hill Mines.
  • Segment 7 – Al and Ron Hera discuss what they  believe is the serious nature of the world economic situation.
  • Segment 8 – An old friend of Al’s, Gordon Ellis, provides information on Lupaka Gold.

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

    Jul 14, 2012 14:55 AM

    Intolerable situation regarding the US and European balance sheets:Dan Pisenti
    “The Federal Reserve Bank of New York is eager to enter into close relationship
    with the Bank for International Settlements…. The conclusion is impossible to
    escape that the State and Treasury Departments are willing to pool the banking
    system of Europe and America, setting up a world financial power independent of
    and above the Government of the United States…. The United States under
    present conditions will be transformed from the most active of manufacturing
    nations into a consuming and importing nation with a balance of trade against
    — Louis McFadden
    (1876-1936) US Congressman (R-PA) (1915-1935), Chairman of House Banking and Currency Committee. Poisoned in 1936.
    Source: quoted in the New York Times (June 1930)

      Jul 14, 2012 14:53 PM

      Dan Pisenti made interesting comments but I am not sure about the bull market in healthcare happening just because people are getting older. That looks at demand only; what about supply? Who’s going to pay for the healthcare when all these governments go broke? You know, the ones who pump money into governemt contolled and taxpayer funded schemes? The ones who fund all the gravy train jobs inthe British NHS for instance? I think we may be at peak healtcare and peak life expectancy too in the western world. These governemts are broke so their healthcare schemes are in danger of dangerous delines or even sudden collapse going forward.

        Jul 14, 2012 14:19 PM

        Hi Silverbug Dave,

        I think that a large number of people will do it themselves as Kathy and I have done for the past 40 or so years.

        Big Al

      Jul 14, 2012 14:18 PM

      Very good point, Matt!

      Big Al

    Jul 14, 2012 14:36 AM

    Matt – None is a prophet in his or her own home, or at least certainly not believed or listened to. And like so many other truth tellers, he may have been killed by those serving the prince of the power of the air.

    For our struggle is not against flesh and blood, but against the rulers, against the authorities, against the powers of this dark world and against the spiritual forces of evil in the heavenly realms. – Ephesians 6:12

    Al – Nervous? Nha. Anyone discovering what is really going on and who controls the show probably goes through the five stages of grieving:
    1. Denial and Isolation
    2. Anger
    3. Bargaining
    4. Depression
    5. Acceptance

    Those reaching the acceptance stage are getting prepared, not nervous.

      Jul 14, 2012 14:21 PM

      Appreciate your thoughts and advice Missive,

      Trust me, I believe that we are prepared. “Getting nervous” was a bit of a mis-statement.

      Big Al

      Jul 14, 2012 14:10 PM

      The Kosmoskrataros. aka mainstream media.

    Jul 14, 2012 14:43 AM

    Bob Dylan- Gotta serve somebody

      Jul 14, 2012 14:22 PM


      Some of his stuff was really great!

      I, for one, choose to serve God and I would bet that you do too!

      Big Al

    Jul 14, 2012 14:06 AM

    What I don’t understand is why some of l the supposedly most informed people on the planet are still putting up with the US being owned and thrown into the toilet?
    If the words of history are not understood then the present can not be deciphered and it is obvious you folks have precious time left to leave the sinking ship.
    You don’t have to stay and fight when the world still has a great multitude of places to enjoy life outside of the Federal Reserve’s masters realm of control.

      Jul 14, 2012 14:23 PM

      Ain’t that the truth, Matt!

      Big Al

    Jul 14, 2012 14:14 AM

    Matt – I’m open to suggestions Matt. Which country do you believe is not under the thumb of the monopolistic eugenecists?

    Those people want conflicts. They love to watch the results of their actions on tivi while enjoying cocktails at the Mets with like minded company.

      Jul 14, 2012 14:25 PM

      Them’s fighting words Missive!

      Enjoying cocktails is an old historical tradition. You trying to change an old historical tradition?

      I am off to the store to buy some Lone Star!

      Big Al

        Jul 14, 2012 14:54 PM

        Everyone can enjoy cocktails with no harm done, or go to the Metropolitan Theater, or watch tivi, or enjoy like minded company.

        But when you have a group of sociopaths congratulating themselves for their evil works shown on tivi as they sip their little cocktails during intermission, you have the situation I’m describing. Guess Paul saw it in a similar fashion:

        Romans 1 – 32 Who knowing the judgment of God, that they which commit such things are worthy of death, not only do the same, but have pleasure in them that do them.

          Jul 15, 2012 15:39 AM

          Good point, Missive.

          Guess that I was trying to inject a little humor in an otherwise dire situation.

          Big All

            Jul 15, 2012 15:21 PM

            AL nice bit of humour ……….. in a dire situation , one can laugh or cry…… i laugh.

    Jul 14, 2012 14:44 AM

    Why would any trust a insurance co.

    Jul 14, 2012 14:32 AM

    In my humble opinion, the financial disaster in Europe is the result of preventing nationalism and the appearance of a new Nazi party with a platform of hate 24/7.

    This big fat Euro govt was tacitly born in the Treaty of Rome in 1957?. It was decided behind closed doors to ensure a quasi socialistic system to prevent another European civil war. Given the European love to make war, kill and hate and butcher, the powers that be had to calm these desires. Socialism was the methodology.

    And it grew and grew in every country that it was soon expected, by the Greeks, the Swedes, the French, British,,

    Budgets grew, deficits grew, size of govt grew to manage these ” social programs” and taxes grew and new types of taxes were created ( tax on new tv sets, tax on tires,,etc.).

    Enormous govt, enormous payroll, long lists of services, ,, their gold was sold or leased to the US ( the Euros will never see it again ), China, Arab countries, India,,,to finance this fat crap, inter alia, no more credit, bonds and bonds, paper meet electron, paper meet ink,,, And here we are.

    Since 1945, except the Germans and North Italy, Sweden, what have the Euros really created ( besides great beer, chocolate, politicians and soccer teams)?.

    The mantle of production and innovation was passed to the Japanese.

    I am not the pretties baby in the nursery, but the above is true.

    And what is going on? Corzine, Wasendorf, Dimon, Diamond, Geithner, etc. The gentiles are on a roll!

      Jul 14, 2012 14:27 PM

      I still like BMW’s James B!

      Big A

      Jul 15, 2012 15:28 PM

      HI JAMES…….The gentiles are not just on a roll………They are in charge…To hell with the Money Changers.

        Jul 15, 2012 15:26 PM

        HI James and Mr. Irish,

        I need a bit of clarification.


        Big Al

    Jul 14, 2012 14:39 AM

    I will also add that Europe was not a deep source of precious metals since the 13th century and probably earlier. This is what lead to the Vikings’ sea voyages, especially from Denmark, trade with the East and colonialism to the West over sea ( because they were afraid of being kidnapped by muslim marauders in the East and having to pay large sums of ransom).

    Jul 14, 2012 14:00 AM

    Big Al and all,
    Good morning – thanks again, for the great show. Here is a very interesting article sent to my e-mail from Dr Jeff Lewis of It discusses tech analysis short-term of silver -BTW, and for what is worth – I STRONGLY agree with the CONCLUSIONS he draws at the end of this article – enjoy!
    All the best,

    Jul 14, 2012 14:32 AM

    James – The European elite has been waging war for centuries without harm to themselves. War allows mobilization of the people and crushing of dissent.

    A state of war only serves as an excuse for domestic tyranny. – Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn

    The fabian philosophy took hold in Europe, but the end goal is still control over the masses, not avoidance of war. Just look at what NATO has been doing for a decade. Bombing civilians is now called protecting dissenters, yea right.

    A Fabian Socialist Dream Come True

    The gradual revolution of the Fabian Socialists is quickly becoming a reality in America. – by Republicae (libertarian) – Monday, August 4, 2008

      Jul 14, 2012 14:28 PM

      Another great point Missive!

      Okay, you are forgiven for the slanderous remark regarding cocktails!

      Big Al

        Jul 14, 2012 14:59 PM

        I like cocktails, and beer, wine….

        1 Corinthians 6- 12 All things are lawful unto me, but all things are not expedient: all things are lawful for me, but I will not be brought under the power of any.

          Jul 15, 2012 15:40 AM

          Thanks for the great quote, Missive!

          Big l

      Jul 15, 2012 15:45 AM

      Yes sir – the Fabian Socialists – From Blair to Clinton. Introduce socialism slowly.

      Before Marx it was Kaiser Wilhelm- he was the true inspiration for Lenin and Stalin – they merely used Das Capital and Commie crap to sell it to the people “liodi” en Russian, close to “leute” in German.

      Govts use socialism as a way to keep us debt slaves. For instance, pay your taxes late, invest the tax money in something, it goes bad, and boom, you are hit with interest and penalties and you have to pay it. They got you!.

    Jul 14, 2012 14:33 AM

    I for one am not nervous about the current US and world problems. I find it interesting and exciting. We’ll probably live through a period of time that history books will be specifically written about. The important thing for investors is to preserve capital since we are and will be in a huge de-leveraging process for years. The environment for PMs is totally different today then it was in the 80s. I think investors are finally resisting the idea that inflation is the primary driver. The primary driver is debt, insolvency and depreciating currencies. That is not to say that inflation may not become an added factor sometime in the future. Resource stocks and metals are being taken to the wood-shed. Some are at prices below the low of conventional markets in 2009. There is still room for some to move to lows seen back in 2009. It amazes me that the conventional markets are still hanging on by their finger nails. Maybe it’s because the traders are thinking that the Fed will come to the rescue soon. I don’t think the Fed will unless the conventional markets implode (which they should) and move significantly lower. Something significant should happen in the PMs and/or the conventional markets in the next few weeks due to some technicals now flashing warning signs. The one I find the most interesting is the Dow/Gold ratio. It is moving dangerously close to the 200 week MA that it hasn’t seen for at least 4-5 years. The moving average should open on Monday at about 8.55 while the ratio will open at 8.05. The ratio’s Bollinger bands are narrowing significantly. This infers that in the next few weeks there will be significant moves of some markets if the PM story is still intact and the Dow/Gold ratio will someday approach 1 as I believe it will. I believe the next move will confirm that we will continue to move to a Dow/Gold ratio of 1 sometime in the next 5 years.

    Jul 14, 2012 14:49 AM

    Excellent input and analysis as usual. Debt, insolvency and depreciating currencies – all speak to the power of gold (silver)…a golden/silver shield is needed for each investor in these time you are outlining……the EAST has pretty much figured that out…the WEST not so much…not so much….AT ALL! A one to one ratio, is something I don’t look at that much, but given these extraordinary conditions we are living in – it surely LOOKS possible, but probable?

      Jul 14, 2012 14:08 AM

      Marc, we’ve had a Dow/Gold ratio of 1 twice in the last 100 years; the great depression and the 1970s. The times we live in are worse then the 1970s and certainly approach and probably will approach the great depression. I believe based on that a Dow/Gold ratio of 1 is almost a certainty. If the Dow/Gold ratio moves above the 200 week MA I’ll have to re-assess my hypothesis. I believe it won’t happen and when it moves downward I believe it’ll confirm my belief. It will also confirm our convictions in the significance of PMs.

        Jul 14, 2012 14:15 PM

        Richard, there have been a few people saying the dow/gold ratio will reach 1-1 for quite some time now. Peter Schiff comes to mind. He in particular has been saying that for about a year+ I think, maybe longer. Might be in his books. There have been others tho. I believe we will get there.

        Jul 15, 2012 15:43 AM

        Your comments, Doc, about the Depression and the 70’s as compared to present times are right on, in my opinion.

        Big Al

    Jul 14, 2012 14:29 AM

    It will not help anyone to NOT complain when the vast majority do not comprehend the magnitude of our problems.
    We need to complain more.
    We need to complain louder.
    We need to complain more effectively.
    How is it that Scranton paying its too many employees minimum wage is not something to raise eyebrows. Cities and Counties going bankrupt. Mini-Greeces who like Greece cannot print their own script.
    How can MF Global and PFG not rise to something to complain about.
    How can the LIBOR revelations that the same people being investigated and sued for silver manipulation admit the same in regards to foundational interest rates. What is the value of a currency if interest rates and traditional money comparisons are contrived by pure fraud.

    This week the chainsaws came for an ash tree in the front of my house.
    We had a fire and smores offering parts of the tree as a tribute.
    When all but me retired for the night, I was left to see the fire safe.
    Instead of letting it die out I grabbed a beer and tossed on another log.
    Casting my thoughts upon the fire, the log I had thrown on turned white.
    By the time I finished my beer the wide end piece rounded revealing a face.
    Behind the face were perfectly spaced branches offering whitened flaming flippers. The log tapering from front to end. I was looking at Mellville’s Leviathan burning. I grabbed another beer and set back and watched the leviathan burn.
    It was oddly enjoyable. But I do not want to complain…maybe I am just seeing things?
    Maybe I am just seeing unpayable debts that will be paid without debasing the currency in which it is measured.
    Maybe I am just seeing pensions and entitlements that will be paid in units that maintain purchasing power.
    Maybe I am just seeing 10,000 to 12,000 baby boomers retiring to promised entitlements each day for the next 18 years.
    Maybe I am just seeing John Maynard Keynes lesson that the most effective way to destroy capitalism is to destroy the currency in which it is conducted in practice.
    Maybe I am just seeing John “Corleone” Corzine summering in The Hamptons.
    Maybe I am just seeing the shadows on the walls of Plato’s cave.

      Jul 14, 2012 14:47 AM

      Maybe you’re just drunk.

      : > }

      Sorry! Sorry!! I just COULD NOT resist!. As usual Dennis, thought provoking, based on fact. Would have been nice to be there. You could have ended it with:

      Maybe I am just seeing Rome burn.

        Jul 15, 2012 15:46 AM

        Morning Dennis M,

        I second John W’s comment in that I truly would have enjoyed being there!

        Big Al

        Jul 15, 2012 15:40 PM

        A nice compliment and with your permission I will incorporate that inspired line as the last.
        It fits very well.
        BTW…you inspired me to actually write a book.
        The first signed copy is yours.
        I will sign it on the acknowledgement page on which your name will appear first.

          Jul 15, 2012 15:52 PM

          That will be one heck of a book…would love to read it.

          Jul 15, 2012 15:28 PM

          Not sure if your comment was directed to myself or to John W.

          How about coming on the show this week.

          Big Al

            Jul 15, 2012 15:55 PM

            My comment was directed to John W.
            John a few weeks back typed a nice thing that stuck with me,
            However, the second signed copy is yours.
            I would love to talk with you on or off your show.
            Send me an e-mail or call.

            Jul 15, 2012 15:59 PM

            Hi Dennis,

            How about Tuesday?

            Give me a convenient time and the number to call you.



            Jul 15, 2012 15:26 PM

            Well Dennis, you’ve more than a few things that have stuck with me. I have a little file of memorable quotes I keep from this website and you’re well represented in it.

            Jul 15, 2012 15:31 PM

            Tuesday 10 AM your time.

            Jul 16, 2012 16:28 PM

            Done, Dennis M

            Big Al

            Oct 28, 2012 28:28 PM

            the royal silver poyuat covers 2 years after which you get $5000 back. The 5k is obviously not inflation adjusted (and you can cancel it early) but the silver sure as hell is. This is an automatic diversification. I’m using options for cash leverage to do what I want so I’m holding none of those RS bonds but they do exist. stellaconcepts did a video on it

          Jul 16, 2012 16:54 PM

          This is truly an excellent idea. As you know, I find your ideas hard to understand but a book would make good reading and give you space to develop the logic of your insights. I am sure a publisher will step forward once the work is done. Have at it!

            Jul 16, 2012 16:11 PM

            I agree with you Pietre,

            Trader Rog could write a great book.

            Big Al

    Jul 14, 2012 14:33 AM

    Could someone explain to me this derivative mess we are in. In english lol i just can not grasp in my mind what it actually entails and i truly appreciate whoever comments

      Jul 14, 2012 14:01 PM

      Boy, Ann, it’s almost impossible to define a derivative simply. Derivatives are financial instruments thought up by Wall Street. Their values are derived from the value of some other asset. They’re usually contracts between 2 parties; one party that wants to hedge their risk and another party that’s willing to hedge that risk for the other party and possibly have the potential of a large payoff. The 2 parties agree to the payments between them based on the value of the asset at some point in time. The simplest types of derivatives are futures and options and can involve stocks, bonds, indices, commodities, etc. These have been around for years. Wall street then got the idea to extend that concept to other assets such as mortgages and other forms of credits, etc. These unfortunately weren’t regulated and run through some form of regulated exchange. An example would be MBS’s and CDS’s—-mortgage back securities and credit default swaps. The mortgages were rated by the rating agencies as good quality when a lot of them weren’t. They were pooled and sold to investors. With CDS’s companies often bought “insurance” for their business with companies that would insure those businesses. AIG sold that insurance as an example. Another problem with these derivatives was that companies selling the insurance often leveraged themselves 30-40 times and didn’t have the collateral to cover their side of the “bet” if things went bad—-which they never expected. When the Ponzi scheme started to unravel and housing values tanked along with businesses, there was not the collateral backing up any of it since the whole system was leveraged. Hence the bailouts. The notional values of derivatives all over the globe are huge and noone knows how much of them are under water and who holds them and what the value is. There are probably others out there with a better knowledge of derivatives that can simplify it much better then I did.

        Jul 15, 2012 15:54 AM

        That’s actually pretty good, Doc.

        I would not; however, put stock options entirely in the derivative category. Yes, their value is based on the value of a stock but they are not generally used as insurance as legally the value of a stock option is close to the value of the stock on the day they are issued.

        Stock options are an effective way for a company to provide an incentive for employees.

        The derivative problem, by the way, is unimaginably huge!

        Big Al

          Jul 15, 2012 15:48 PM

          Al, when I referred to options I wasn’t referring to “stock options” but instead to call and put options which are a different “can of worms”.

            Jul 15, 2012 15:29 PM

            I do agree, Doc!

            Big Al

      Jul 15, 2012 15:29 PM

      Going to discuss this with Steve Taylor in Monday’s editorial, Ann.

      Best and have a great rest of the weekend,

      Big Al

      Jul 15, 2012 15:45 PM

      Ann: In a nut shell, derivatives are a gamble. Parties to a derivative agreement place bets on what may or may not happen. Insurance is a type of derivative like crop insurance, but the problem began when people discovered they could lever up the notional value of the payout in a derivative, which more often now are based on nothing just like our currency the Federal Reserve note dollar, they could actually trade these derivatives as if they had value. A giant levered up Ponzi Scheme which entangles the liabilities of JP Morgan, Citi bank, Goldman Sachs, Barklays and in kind the Federal Reserve, BOJ, ECB, BOE, IMF, BIS and the governments they operate under.

    Jul 14, 2012 14:19 AM

    I’ve been layed-off twice in my life, so I don’t like it (well, actually I did, went on to start businesses….)

    But look at France, instructing a private company what to do with a lay-off. Hollande is going to be a disaster.

      Jul 15, 2012 15:40 AM

      Perhaps France can move towards a new 20-hour work week so that everyone can take part.

        Jul 15, 2012 15:29 PM

        Peugeot says they’re going to lay-off 3,000. Hollande say, “Non way! Go back and think it over”. Peugeot should respond, “You’re right. We’ve reconsidered. We’re laying off 10,000.”

    Jul 14, 2012 14:04 PM

    “The titan Washington is gone, and lesser men are scrambling for power!” a barkeep at Fraunces Tavern declared. “The age of heroes is over, the present is corrupt, and the future promises disaster!”

    “Things are normal then,” I toasted. “To democracy!”

    Every candidate had been tarred. Jefferson was accused of shirking military duty during the revolution and of being a Jacobin and atheist. Incumbent John Adams was portrayed as incompetent, power-mad, and a secret ally of the perfidious British. Burr was a tin-pot Napoleon. In other words, it was little different than the sniping and backstabbing one heard in the salons of Paris, and I discounted all of it, given what lies have been told about even earnest and likable types like me. There were tales of a Federalist plot to assassinate Jefferson, arm the slaves, or seize the arsenals. Some feared civil war! Yet none of the Americans thought the undignified tumult warranted a king. The ones I drank with were as proud of democracy’s chaos as gulls playing the winds of a tempest.

    “Our congressmen will have our say, by God!” the barflies declared. “They are rogues every one, but they are OUR rogues.”

    ~William Dietrich -“The Dakota Cipher” (chapter 11)

    Not much has changed, really; that I can tell.

      Jul 14, 2012 14:16 PM

      Good post Irwin. Things were never quite so transparent and honest as we may sometimes wish.

      Jul 15, 2012 15:33 PM

      I really think that the main difference is the very real possibility of the disappearance of capitalism, true capitalism which includes free markets.

      Anybody consider the libor situation?

      Big Al

    Jul 14, 2012 14:22 PM

    Richard. Many many thanks

      Feb 04, 2014 04:44 AM

      You’ve got it in one. Con’udlt have put it better.

    Jul 14, 2012 14:29 PM

    Hi Missive,

    I am sure that the control is near world wide.

    There are countries that still allow outsiders citizenship (or similar rights) with limited investment funds.

    To me it is not about finding a country that is not within their control or grasp but rather,is not on the immediate list of destruction.

    For example,I am renting a brand new five room home for $150 per month.

    There is a lot of info on the net for those seeking a second home.Realistically,it is just about sourcing alternatives if everything continues down the present trajectory.

    There is some valid information on this site and will provide a starting point for anybody without any ideas:

    Jul 14, 2012 14:12 PM

    Big Al, Peter is right. You don’t need a haircut!

    $30k? Dang. Why are you selling now?

      Jul 15, 2012 15:35 PM

      Hi Ken,

      Primarily because we don’t live there. Taking the loss does have some tax advantages. We also purchased our home, which is in the same area, for about $0.50 on the dollar. I figure that it all comes out in the wash.

      Thanks for asking,

      Big Al

        Jul 15, 2012 15:37 PM

        Yes, I guess yer right, there…it all comes out in the wash…but dang, that’s an expensive wash…

        Jul 16, 2012 16:34 AM

        I would rephrase that as to .50 on the bubble! .50 on the dollar would mean that you puchased a home apraised for double what you paid, not some wild hair price that some idiot once paid for your property when the corrupt government was giving out free loans. These sorts of comments really upset me. Sorry for the rant, just expressing my feelings.

          Jul 16, 2012 16:25 PM

          You are correct, Bobby.

          Our place was at one point appraised; however, for almost twice what we paid for it.

          Interesting addendum to this.

          We came very close to purchasing a home with an asking price of $425K. This particular place was actually appraised for $700K at the time.

          Go figure!

          Big Al

            Jul 16, 2012 16:51 PM

            I tell ya Big Al, yes it will all come out in the wash but you have some pretty fancy laundry! 🙂

            And any chance of you getting Bill Fleckenstein on your show?

    Jul 14, 2012 14:11 PM

    Scranton PA. is filing for bankruptcy, now they are saying that 98% of all US cities have funding problems and this with a non existent interest rate. I just don’t know what American’s don’t understand, they have little industry left except for defense but that too is a huge drain on their finances. With troops stationed in 130 countries constantly fighting foreign wars, many 100,000,s of people dead, maimed and collecting disability from these adventures since the Vietnam war, and now they have so many enemies that their homeland security is astronomical.

    Over a million people are incarcerated in US prisons at $80, 000 per year per inmate, look at the cost for the war on drugs that will never be won.

    Their cities are crumbling, they need to import ridiculous amounts of energy, everywhere you look you see government handouts, first to the union membership and then to the populace who have next to no work anymore. The list is so huge that it really won’t take long now. I’m starting to get a headache and I haven’t even scratched the surface.

    Hi Ken, Al is selling now because he knows that this is only a trim job the big buzzcut is yet to come.

      Jul 15, 2012 15:05 AM

      “Over a million people are incarcerated in US prisons at $80, 000 per year per inmate, look at the cost for the war on drugs that will never be won. “

      I’d be perfectly willing to accept $60,000 a year and stay out of jail!

        Jul 15, 2012 15:42 AM

        According to some we should not contemplate that which we cannot change.
        Do not fret of multinationals buying into the municipal water supply.
        Just say The Serenity Prayer just prior to opening your next water bill:

        “God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change,
        Courage to change the things I can,
        And wisdom to know the difference.”

          Jul 15, 2012 15:15 PM

          Hi Dennis, you know what I have a difficult time changing my own way of thinking which was born out of the anti-war movement of the late sixties. I still prefer substance over style aka “Dr. Ron Paul.”

          Jul 15, 2012 15:38 PM

          Dennis M,

          That is one of my almost daily prayers. (And, not because I go to AA! By the way, I have nothing but respect for those folks!)

          Big Al

      Jul 15, 2012 15:36 PM


      I appreciate you final comment and that is certainly part of it.

      Big Al

    Jul 15, 2012 15:08 AM

    Earlier in thread, there was comment about 1:1 gold ratio.

    Earlier this month, Jim Sinclair came out with his final forecast for gold.

    In case you missed it, his predicted top price for gold is minimum 3500$ in as early as one year,(to a MAXIMUM of three years).

    Assuming it trades around that 3500$ mark and the Dow/gold ratio comes near that 1:1 ratio, that implies: money printing by the US is just enough to avoid total collapse.

    Jim’s price actually seemed low to me. I wonder if either the bond market does indeed prevent unfettered money printing and exert displine. I wonder if deleveraging wins.

    Jim made a statement that very few of us would believe him when he tells us the gold bull market is over. 3500$ and 3 years seems too low/ too soon but his knowledge on this subject is peerless so I’ll have to take his prediction seriously.

    What kind of a world will we see in three years. Gold ~ 3500$, DOW ~3500?


      Jul 15, 2012 15:49 AM

      Reading Jim Sinclair is like reading the bible – there’s an interpretation for everyone. One thing he repeats quite often and is easy to understand is this phrase: “Alf will be correct”.

      He is referring to a keynote speech Alf Field gave in November 2011 which ended with these words:

      “Once this correction has been completed, Intermediate Wave III of Major THREE will be underway. This should be the largest and strongest wave in the entire gold bull market. The target for this wave should be around $4,500 with only two 13% corrections on the way.” ~Alf Field

      Jul 15, 2012 15:02 AM

      Sheets stick with this it gets intersting
      When on spring break in Florida someone posted here that the Newmont Dividend plan in place (see page 18 of the June26, 2012 Presentation would result in a 4.35 dividend on a then (first week of April) $43 dollar stock. placing the dividend at 10% of $43 entry price.
      If JIM SINCLAIR is right that projecting Newmonts projected dividend plan would put an $8.70 dividend per share on what is today a $46 stock.
      If Jime Sinclair is right…..(and I believe he is absolutely right at a minimum in the direction of the gold price) and if NEM existing dividend policy is in place then
      A share of NEM would pay just under a 19% dividend.

      Jul 15, 2012 15:56 PM

      I agree with your comment that Sinclair’s minimum high for gold is much too low. As mentioned before this crisis is much worse then the 70s and gold appreciated 25xs then. That would put a minimum high of gold at over $6000.00. Another thing to consider is that if you look at a 100 year history of the Dow along with a 25 year MA you’ll notice that the Dow dipped below the 25 MA very rarely. The one time it dipped below the 25 year MA it occured during the great depression. The MA is currently in the 7500-8000 area. I really don’t believe the Dow will move much lower then that and if that holds to be true gold could possibly move as high as $8000. Remember that history never repeats but it certainly rhymes.

    Jul 15, 2012 15:35 AM

    Thesheet – Sinclair also said QE infinity. I’d like to understand how he reconciles this with a $3,500 gold price if the end game is destruction of the currency. Where is that interview? There are pieces missing from that. I don`t ever recall Sinclair saying the bull gold market was over. going sideways for a short while maybe, but not over.

    Jul 15, 2012 15:13 AM

    Just thinking why gold is down so low when the world is going nuts, perhaps its because the central bankers/governments that are buying the gold that others see as an bearish market taking place, and are selling gold either for profit(mom & pop because the need the money) or to get out because they see a so-called bear market on the horizon. Like the Hunt Brothers to corner the silver market in the past, but its the central bankers this time. As about the half chance of gold being confiscated by our nation but by placing the notion in peoples minds that selling gold should be done because its looking like a bear market is upon us. Also looking at Insurance Companies namely Lloyd`s of London, since there has been talk that the UK is in trouble worst than others out there yet very little about this in the mainstream media got me thinking… found this link but had other ideas about what would happen if the last Insurance Company that insures people, homes just about everything everybody else can`t for one thing or another went under what would that do to the markets concerning Risk factor in peoples minds. Though the link only dicusses what to do about the Eurozone`s fate/collapse……

    Jul 15, 2012 15:52 AM

    My Dear Extended Family,
    Gold will go to and above $3500. This is the most important message I have sent you since 2001.
    There are very few of us dynamic thinkers that see everything as a trend constantly in motion. Anyone can be a static thinker, quoting recent economic figures or news headline (MSM), and coming up with a usually wrong opinion.
    The change today is that the “Rig Is Up.”
    The Bank of England turning their backs on Barclays, the company who did their bidding, will be the event in time marking the trend change.
    Many of us in our areas of activity will successfully fight the Riggers. The many complaints that so many of you kindly sent in to fight manipulation released the Kraken in me.
    The Kraken is back in its cage where it belongs. The paper trail is there. The worm has turned. Even more importantly is that this fight in the $1540 gold price area was not for regaining the old high in gold. The six attempts to kill gold, supported by some gold writers looking for favors from the riggers was a now failed attempt to keep gold from trading above $3500.
    The battle to stop gold has been lost.
    The start, like all starts towards the old high and well above, should be slow with more unfolding drama. It will build on itself but gold will trade at and above $3500. I am now as certain of this as I was over ten years ago when I told you gold was headed for $1650. I knew that as fact and to me from $248 gold was trading at $1650.
    My job now is to define gold’s full valuation for you when it occurs. The timing is no less than one year from now to a maximum of three years from now. I believe I will be able to do that for you.
    This is the most important message I have written you since early in 2001. I write this with total intellectual and spiritual certainty.

    …He did say “at least” $3500…

    I guess we will have to wait for his comments about full evaluation !

    Jim also said…..

    When it’s over, 97% of you won’t believe me” – jim sinclair, 2004…

    Jul 15, 2012 15:19 AM

    There was a question as to why gold was so low? Last friday the price was 1592.50 and its going higher for sure. In 2000-2001 it was what $150-$250? Did the Dow and the S&P’s go up that much in the last decade? No way. As to why others do not take charge and clean up the messes: it won’t happen until something big breaks down and then those in charge are FORCED TO DEAL WITH IT. THAT WOULD BE THE BOND MARKETS AND BELIEVE IT IT IS COMING – Traderrog

      Jul 15, 2012 15:25 PM

      When we think of the real value of one asset class in terms of other asset classes that is the only time when comparisons make sense.
      Financial planners love nominal based results.
      98% would be fired if they did not force feed their clients nominally based performance charts.

      Jul 16, 2012 16:09 AM

      Roger. I agree, the main question I have is what is going to cause interest rates to start rising when in the US the Fed can buy all bonds? The only reason they can do that without severe inflation or devaluation of the dollar is because the main currency weighed against the Euro is going down.

      The correlation between the US and EU would be the States, Illinois and Italy. Neither can print their own spending money and must borrow or tax what they need. The ECB helps Italy for what they can get away to the degree Germany allows with similar methods used by the Fed through the treasury with limits of congressional and senate State seats.

      We know the Bond market will break down, but what are the things or events that would cause it?

      Jul 16, 2012 16:26 AM

      I believe the answer to my own above question is, the fight in congress between Democrats and Republicans. For sure the Fed can print, but they are extremely poor and reluctant to referee the political fight in the US, however they are in the ring whether they want to be there or not and the Fed is engaged politically. My guess is the Bond market will tip when power in Washington tips from left to right which will be used by the Democrats to blame Republicans for the rapid rise in interest rates. The Republicans will counter-punch with a right hook slamming home the fact that interest rate payments would not have hurt so much had the Democrats held their left arm guard higher during the years they over indulged in debt spending.

    Jul 15, 2012 15:36 PM

    Well, there aren’t enough trees hereabouts to take Mr Taylor to a “wood shed” so a wickiup made of creosote bush will have to do. From the perspective of the law-abiding US citizens of the 1930’s, they had to give up their gold or face a $10,000 fine and did so. Only one prosecution occurred due to continued “hoarding” . It was done by executive order….and we know how our dear, high, exalted, mystic ruler loves executive orders…..just change the name and history will repeat itself so that the hoarders do not receive any ‘windfall profit’ from their hoarding.

    From: President of the United States Franklin Delano Roosevelt
    To: The United States Congress
    Dated: 5 April, 1933
    Presidential Executive Order 6102

    Forbidding the Hoarding of Gold Coin, Gold Bullion and Gold Certificates By virtue of the authority vested in me by Section 5(b) of the Act of October 6, 1917, as amended by Section 2 of the Act of March 9, 1933, entitled

    An Act to provide relief in the existing national emergency in banking, and for other purposes~’,

    in which amendatory Act Congress declared that a serious emergency exists,

    I, Franklin D. Roosevelt, President of the United States of America, do declare that said national emergency still continues to exist and pursuant to said section to do hereby prohibit the hoarding gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates within the continental United States by individuals, partnerships, associations and corporations and hereby prescribe the following regulations for carrying out the purposes of the order:

    Section 1. For the purpose of this regulation, the term ‘hoarding” means the withdrawal and withholding of gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates from the recognized and customary channels of trade. The term “person” means any individual, partnership, association or corporation.

    Section 2. All persons are hereby required to deliver on or before May 1, 1933, to a Federal Reserve bank or a branch or agency thereof or to any member bank of the Federal Reserve System all gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates now owned by them or coming into their ownership on or before April 28, 1933, except the following:

    (a) Such amount of gold as may be required for legitimate and customary use in industry, profession or art within a reasonable time, including gold prior to refining and stocks of gold in reasonable amounts for the usual trade requirements of owners mining and refining such gold.

    (b) Gold coin and gold certificates in an amount not exceeding in the aggregate $100.00 belonging to any one person; and gold coins having recognized special value to collectors of rare and unusual coins.

    (c) Gold coin and bullion earmarked or held in trust for a recognized foreign government or foreign central bank or the Bank for International Settlements.

    (d) Gold coin and bullion licensed for the other proper transactions (not involving hoarding) including gold coin and gold bullion imported for the re-export or held pending action on applications for export license.

    Section 3. Until otherwise ordered any person becoming the owner of any gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates after April 28, 1933, shall within three days after receipt thereof, deliver the same in the manner prescribed in Section 2; unless such gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates are held for any of the purposes specified in paragraphs (a),(b) or (c) of Section 2; or unless such gold coin, gold bullion is held for purposes specified in paragraph (d) of Section 2 and the person holding it is, with respect to such gold coin or bullion, a licensee or applicant for license pending action thereon.

    Section 4. Upon receipt of gold coin, gold bullion, or gold certificates delivered to it in accordance with Section 2 or 3, the Federal reserve bank or member bank will pay thereof an equivalent amount of any other form of coin or currency coined or issued under the laws of the Unites States.

    Section 5. Member banks shall deliver alt gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates owned or received by them (other than as exempted under the provisions of Section 2) to the Federal reserve banks of there respective districts and receive credit or payment thereof.

    Section 6. The Secretary of the Treasury, out of the sum made available to the President by Section 501 of the Act of March 9, 1933, will in all proper cases pay the reasonable costs of transportation of gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates delivered to a member bank or Federal reserve bank in accordance with Sections 2, 3, or 5 hereof, including the cost of insurance, protection, and such other incidental costs as may be necessary, upon production of satisfactory evidence of such costs. Voucher forms for this purpose may be procured from Federal reserve banks.

    Section 7. In cases where the delivery of gold coin, gold bullion, or gold certificates by the owners thereof within the time set forth above will involve extraordinary hardship or difficulty, the Secretary of the Treasury may, in his discretion, extend the time within which such delivery must be made. Applications for such extensions must be made in writing under oath; addressed to the Secretary of the Treasury and filed with a Federal reserve bank. Each applications must state the date to which the extension is desired, the amount and location of the gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates in respect of which such application is made and the facts showing extension to be necessary to avoid extraordinary hardship or difficulty.

    Section 8. The Secretary of the Treasury is hereby authorized and empowered to issue such further regulations as he may deem necessary to carry the purposes of this order and to issue licenses there under, through such officers or agencies as he may designate, including licenses permitting the Federal reserve banks and member banks of the Federal Reserve System, in return for an equivalent amount of other coin, currency or credit, to deliver, earmark or hold in trust gold coin or bullion to or for persons showing the need for same for any of the purposes specified in paragraphs (a), (c), and (d) of Section 2 of these regulations.

    Section 9. Whoever willfully violates any provision of this Executive Order or these regulation or of any rule, regulation or license issued there under may be fined not more than $10,000, or,if a natural person may be imprisoned for not more than ten years or both; and any officer, director, or agent of any corporation who knowingly participates in any such violation may be punished by a like fine, imprisonment, or both.

    This order and these regulations may be modified or revoked at any time.

    Franklin D. Roosevelt
    President of the United States of America
    April 5, 1933

      Jul 15, 2012 15:47 PM

      Evening Tex,

      I think the important point of Steve’s dialog dealt with the fact that we are not on a gold standard today. That I do agree with.

      Of course, one cannot dispute the law of Roosevelt.

      One can; however, ask “just how effective was it”. I think that was Steve’s point.

      Big Al

    Jul 15, 2012 15:56 PM

    TEX………in other words………The people were “ROBBED” of their wealth by the fed….What i would like to know is …..What did they pay ROOSEVELT ? THE TRAITOR.

      Jul 15, 2012 15:02 PM

      B.T.W…………The Obamas…Just like the Blairs, here in the UK will prostitute themselves for cash.

    Jul 15, 2012 15:02 PM

    BTW Al, are you considering an interview with some of the Raw Materials Economics proponents?

    Jul 15, 2012 15:49 PM

    Interesting idea Missive.

    Big Al

    Jul 15, 2012 15:23 PM

    Practically everything in this world of humans is manipulated. Interest rates by the Fed, interbank rates LIBOR by all banks including the Fed, Gold and Silver is manipulated, stocks, bonds, even taxes and to some extent death. To try name and figure all the things in this world of man that are manipulated is futile, because if it can be manipulated it probably is.

    Investing and playing markets in a rigged game is very risky. The only game that can be played in such a situation where the player knows the game is rigged, is to figure out when the methods for rigging are going to change. That is a social game, political in nature, and while it might provide perceived profits in monetary wealth it takes a terrible toll in spiritual losses.

    The problems in Europe and the US are not too different than what other people have gone through in history. The only salvation the people in these and many other places have is first to become aware themselves that they are being lied to and cheated and second to inform as many others of this truth. I believe this is exactly what is happening today as more and more people are slowly becoming aware. This is the positive I see today a result of increasing negativity which the elite and powerful have very little control over.

    Jul 15, 2012 15:46 PM

    Excellent points,Clay.
    My take is that the PTB could care less about the negative press.
    One only has to take note of the destruction in major theatres of war in the last decade to see that there is no opposition worth note,while millions die and are displaced.

    Jul 15, 2012 15:38 PM

    “Are you folks getting nervious?”

    Neverous? How about terrified? Just read this and tell me massively bad things are not going to happen…

      Jul 15, 2012 15:41 PM

      Dang, where the heck did nervious and neverous come from? Geez, I’m so neverous I’m passed being nervous!

    Jul 15, 2012 15:50 PM

    Planned implosion by the Fed’s masters:
    #23 If the federal government used GAAP accounting standards like publicly traded corporations do, the real federal budget deficit for last year would have been 5 trillion dollars instead of 1.3 trillion dollars.
    #13 The United States already has more government debt per capita than Greece, Portugal, Italy, Ireland or Spain does.
    #11 Today, the government debt to GDP ratio in the United States is well over 100 percent.
    #17 It is being projected that the U.S. national debt will surpass 23 trillion dollars in 2015.
    #1 It took more than 200 years for the U.S. national debt to reach 1 trillion dollars. In 1986, the U.S. national debt reached 2 trillion dollars. In 1992, the U.S. national debt reached 4 trillion dollars. In 2005, the U.S. national debt doubled again and reached 8 trillion dollars. Now the U.S. national debt is about to cross the 16 trillion dollar mark.

      Jul 16, 2012 16:27 PM

      Hi Matt,

      I have seen those numbers before, but I thank you for reminding all of us about them.

      It is just amazing to me that we have reached this point.

      Big Al

    Jul 16, 2012 16:43 AM

    But even leaving this crisis aside, there is now abundant evidence of widespread, unpunished criminal behavior in the financial sector. Later in this book, I go through the list of what we already know, which is a lot. In addition to the behavior that caused the crisis, major U.S. and European banks have been caught assisting corporate fraud by Enron and others, laundering money for drug cartels and the Iranian military, aiding tax evasion, hiding the assets of corrupt dictators, colluding in order to fix prices, and committing many forms of financial fraud. The evidence is now overwhelming that over the last thirty years, the U.S. financial sector has become a rogue industry. As its wealth and power grew, it subverted America’s political system (including both political parties), government, and academic institutions in order to free itself from regulation. As deregulation progressed, the industry became ever more unethical and dangerous, producing ever larger financial crises and ever more blatant criminality. Since the 1990s, its power has been sufficient to insulate bankers not only from effective regulation but even from criminal law enforcement. The financial sector is now a parasitic and destabilizing industry that constitutes a major drag on American economic growth.
    The second reason that I decided to write this book is that the rise of predatory finance is both a cause and a symptom of an even broader, and even more disturbing, change in America’s economy and political system. The financial sector is the core of a new oligarchy that has risen to power over the past thirty years, and that has profoundly changed American life. The later chapters of this book are devoted to analyzing how this happened and what it means.

    From: Predator Nation: Corporate Criminals, Political Corruption, and the Hijacking of America by Charles H. Ferguson

    Jul 16, 2012 16:12 AM


    If you do get the interview scheduled, have them list how much revenue the major states like New York, California, Texas and Ilinois are loosing in tax revenue due to the unjust and fraudulent way our currency is issued. Ask also about major cities as well if they have time to compile it. This may wake up a few people.

    There is now way out if our mind is stuck in the current financial orthodoxy`s thought process. There is if we are willing to re-visit the way currency is systematically issued with a debt commitment.

      Jul 16, 2012 16:30 PM

      I sent this e-mail out 5 minutes ago, Missive:

      Hello Randy,

      A number of our listeners have asked that I speak with you and discuss your organization on our program, The Korelin Economics Report.

      We air on conventional radio and have a very active website which is

      Each month we have between 140,000 and 165,000 listeners on the site alone. The radio stats seem to be impossible to quantify other than we know that stations that carry the program.

      No one ever pays a fee to be on our show. I should not have to say that, but there are a number of programs out there where the airtime is purchased and guests are charged fees. Not right in my opinion.

      Please let me know how I can reach you.


      Al Korelin

        Jul 16, 2012 16:49 PM

        That`s good news Al. I hope they get you someone who grasps the concepts of raw material economics really well.

        I gave up on conventionnal investing way before I was made aware of the elite`s degree of control over this blue ball, simply because it became impossible to forecast in a top down approach (macro to micro). The reason is simple, I could not tell where the new printed money would show up. If we ever get that whole scam under control as well as fair and honest again, Raw Materials Economics will have to be a major part of it.

        The 1792 Coinage Act had an interesting provision under Section 19.

        SEC. 19.And be it further enacted, That if any of the gold or silver coins which shall be struck or coined at the said mint shall be debased or made worse as to the proportion of fine gold or fine silver therein contained, or shall be of less weight or value than the same ought to be pursuant to the directions of this act, through the default or with the connivance of any of the officers or persons who shall be employed at the said mint, for the purpose of profit or gain, or otherwise with a fraudulent intent, and if any of the said officers or persons shall embezzle any of the metals which shall at any time be committed to their charge for the purpose of being coined, or any of the coins which shall be struck or coined at the said mint, every such officer or person who shall commit any or either of the said offences, shall be deemed guilty of felony, and shall suffer death.

        Debasing the currency a felony punishable by death?

        Wouldn`t that get the attention of our contemporary puppets…

          Jul 16, 2012 16:50 PM

          That would definitely get a whole bunch of people’s attention.

          Big Al

    Jul 16, 2012 16:07 AM

    I think gold is going to continue it’s choppy trading pattern within the confines of the triangle until we hear what comes out of the next Fed meeting. An announcement of QE3 would presumably break gold out to the upside and the C-wave advance would get underway for real. If Bernanke fails to pull the trigger again then we will probably see gold break downwards out of the triangle and test the 2010 consolidation zone around $1400.

      Jul 16, 2012 16:22 PM

      Whole bunch of different views on this, Bart.

      I personally find it interesting that gold is maintaining at the nearly $1600/oz level in spite of everything.

      Somebody knows something, my friend!

      Big Al

    Jul 16, 2012 16:50 AM

    “How long can the government bond bubble be sustained? How negative can interest rates be driven?

    Can a declining economy offset the impact on inflation of debt creation and its monetization, with the result that inflation falls to zero, thus making the low interest rates on government bonds positive?”

    The above questions asked by Paul Craig Robert and Nomi Prins were not answered, but one way or another it they will be. Creating monetary inflation to offset deflationary decline has fixed nothing while transferring wealth from the many to the very few through corruption, crime and fraud in government. So the answers to these questions depend on how long the 90% are willing to allow these crimes, corruption and fraud in government to continue.

      Jul 16, 2012 16:18 PM


      I would bet you that the 90% number is not accurate. I would put it up to a fraction of 1%.

      I am pretty sure of that number, by the way.

      Big Al

    Jul 16, 2012 16:56 PM

    @Clay – What percentage of people of influence do you think this involves? That would be the percentage who will tolerate the current fraud and corruption.

    “The few who understand the system will either be so interested in its profits or be so dependent upon its favours that there will be no opposition from that class, while on the other hand, the great body of people, mentally incapable of comprehending the tremendous advantage that capital derives from the system, will bear its burdens without complaint, and perhaps without even suspecting that the system is inimical to their interests.” The Rothschild brothers of London writing to associates in New York, 1863.

      Jul 16, 2012 16:48 PM

      Evening Missive,

      I came up with less than 1% simply because folks whose earnings are about $425K or more per year are in the top 1% of the country.

      $425K per year may sound like a lot, but in the context of what you are saying it is definitely not.

      Agree or disagree?

      Big Al

    Jul 17, 2012 17:08 AM

    From the Rothschild brothers`s quote, we see two categories: those who understand the scam and benefit from it, and those who do not understand the scam and pay for it. Both are ok with the status quo, and I would venture to say it probably makes up 90% of the population who will do nothing to stop the fraud.

    The other 10%, however, can do a lot:

    It does not require a majority to prevail, but rather an irate, tireless minority keen to set brush fires in people’s minds. – Samuel Adams

    Jul 20, 2012 20:18 AM

    There is clearly a bunch to realize about this. I think you made some nice points in features also.

    Aug 25, 2012 25:20 PM

    HiNice piece. I agree 100% with you regarding your ctmnemos under Jewellery Valuations heading. A valuer of any items must be truly unconnected to a buying or selling situation. Many Valuers describe themselves as Independent but one has to ask the question Independent of what? . Many are independent in name only.I agree that Gemlab are a very reputable jewellery valuation practice, where you can be assured of an objective appraisal and valuation.Could I take this opportunity to also mention that there is an international association whose members have been specifically screened for their independence:Gemlab is an esteemed member of AIJV in New ZealandMany thanksAdrian