Will 2013 be a better year for the resource markets?
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In this show Al discusses:
- Segment 1 – Al and Jeff Deist discuss the end of an era. Unfortunately Congressman Ron Paul is leaving office.
- Segment 2 – Will 2013 be a better year for resource stocks? Grant Williams opines.
- Segment 3 – Al talks gold and other issues with Rick Ackerman of Rick’s Picks.
- Segment 4 – John Kaiser of The Bottom Fishing Report shares thoughts about the future of the resource sector stocks.
- Segment 5 – Continuing from the previous segment, John Kaiser discusses where he thinks opportunities lie.
- Segment 6 – Big Al shares his investing views with Cory Fleck from Resource Spots.
- Segment 7 – Why I may increase my position in Corvus Gold. Al talks with Jeff Pontius.
- Segment 8 – Everyone needs to help. Here is what Gordon Holmes has been doing for the past five years.
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I need to weigh in on this one, In the Box.
Regarding the companies, of course it is a no-brainer.
Regarding the outlook, I simply think that if numbers rightly or wrongly get better (even a little bit) confidence will slowly come back and this will be good for the resource market.
I would certainly rather see that happen than see the whole thing come crashing down tomorrow. I mean, it may very well take 20 years to get back on track, but that too is better than a complete collapse tomorrow.
I am not say that the complete collapse will not happen, I saying what I personally would rather see happen.
Al….regards to the outlook,short term to mid term….With BO,”tHE Little Stinker” KAPTIN BO.ZO…in charge, more govt. is not the secret to growing the economy….I also, do not desire that the economy crash….but, I see things a little shakey in the coming year,…..for the sheeple….,I do not see a complete collapse, only a problem for the sheeple who do not have a clue, if they have debt…they are in trouble….and if they keep signing their name for more debt, they will have one heck of a time….
btw….loved this week’s show…..
Many thanks, In the Box!
I could not agree with you more, In the Box!
SEG6..”BIG BANK PREDICTION”……..GOLD IS GOING TO MIN. OF 1850 IN 2013,,,,just do the math…… $1700 x .09% is $154,…. $154 plus $1700 is ….$1850….
Based, upon .inflation which is 8% or higher…So , Gold is just keeping up with inflation……which, is still better than 1% in the bank.
Jerry,
Basic, SOLID thinking……nobody gets that either…!
BTW,
ESPECIALLY when there is a 12 YEAR trend is staring you in the face. I mean, common. Plus, the fundamentals are ONLY getting stronger! Much stronger!
hey Marc….how ya doing,,,,,btw……thanks for the compliment……
“SOLID”….like in gold, you mean? pure gold is a little soft….but, you get that way
after you turn 60 ….just ask AL….
Everything is great, thank you! Jerry, I am the youngest of six kids and I love talkin to the ‘OLD” guys….they have A LOT more brains than most! HA!
All the VERY best to you and yours!
Marc
BtW, I would take the ‘solid’ of gold any day of the week 🙂
Think you mean 9% NOT 0.9%
thanks PRofessor…
the 0.9% is what you get from the bank….sorry, again for the mix up….
re: Segment 2….US better than the others?
I wish to point that the only government that is voluntarily trying to cut back spending is the UK austerity program of Cameron and he is having trouble with a lot of public criticism.
And another good point cfs!
With respect to Big AL’s comment on improving job numbers.
The dirty little secret that is NOT reported in the media, but observable if you dig into the Bureau of Labor stats is that 73% of the job growth in Q# was due to an increase in Government (Federal, state and local) jobs.
(That brings back the mental picture of a cow drinking from its own udder – it does not work in the long run.)
I did not comment on the accuracy of the number. I was referring to a bit of increased confidence that seemed to result from the number.
I just rediscover a reference to the 73% number…..
http://cnsnews.com/news/article/73-new-jobs-created-last-5-months-are-government
Q# above was supposed to be Q3 ……sorry
I applaud Corvus in starting small production and using the proceeds to grow bigger. I’ve always thought that the best way to go’ and often look for companies with a resource that includes a higher concentration, easily exploitable section, so that it can be used to start production and fund expansion. – a tip given by both Jim Sinclair and Richard Russell.
Guys, Here’s a tip I use as to short term predictions for gold up or down…..It’s basically a measure of consumer sentiment with respect to gold, but I’ve found it works.
Plot the premium to NAV for CEF – central fund of Canada.
It increased during the last week to 6.5% and thus this indicator predicts that gold is going up in price next week.
Caution: This indicator fails to work for a while after CEF releases new shares, which it does occasionally when the premium gets too big.
Interesting, cfs!
I found an article by Fabian Calvo to be very interesting. he say’s “House prices have gone up 3% because the inventory has been suppressed by Big Players…. not foreclosing on properties. Over 20 million houses on any given night in America are sitting vacant. The economy is being helped by shadow stimulus, it’s coming from millions of underwater homeowners who have stopped making mortgage payments. Calvo say’s ” Money that would have been otherwise allocated towards a housing payment is going into consumer spending. Calvo say’s the fragile real estate market would crash if rates rose just a little.
Calvo runs a company that buys and sells 100 million $ annually in distressed debt and real estate. I couldn’t agree more. DT
DT,
I saw that..very, very interesting!
Thanks for the link, cfs.
DT….THAT WAS A GREAT ARTICAL, FOR THE REAL ESTATE BUFFS…
“housing recovery NOT”…..the way I see it is ,,,this is a replay of !973,
then you have to look forward to 1979…., the interest rates were 21%
one must ask , just how long can they keep the rates down….
Very interesting and thank you very much
thanks…..and you are welcome….ootb
That is a very interesting observation, Machine Gun!
Re: Housing foreclosures.
I should add in a comment. One reason that it appears that not enough foreclosures have been made in the US, or that the housing market price-wise appears manipulated to some extent, is that earlier this year there was a determination* that realtors and mortgage lenders could be held CRIMINALLY liable if foreclosures were not performed correctly. The immediate effect of this was a withdrawal of 26,000 foreclosures overnight. That together with the slicing and dicing and re-selling of mortgages has really causes problems for foreclosures. More recently a process has been devised for electronic registration of foreclosures, which I believe will increase the rate.
* I’m sorry, but I can’t remember if this was due to a HUD edict or a judicial judgment.
cfs….I think this is a “slide of hand trick”, that the bankers had planned…..IF according to Calvo…..”that the once banker/mortgage manipulators like Countrywide owners are now buying back large blocks of housing ,AT a fraction , like $200 per house and rerenting them, this in itself, is another or continued inside job, that is still being done by the C.Dodd,and B.Franks, and the FDIC, HUD,
FHA…not FDIC…..(but, they are all part of the same corrupt house)
I’m not sure that Bankers are that devious or calculating, but it is true, that because the rental market has held up better, there is a lot of money being made in rentals after rehabbing foreclosures.
I wish that was our experience! Anybody want a great Condo, basically on a golf course and next to an indoor tennis court and swimming pool? Big Al is prepared to give someone one heck of a deal!
Yep! More vulture capitalism!
Al….WILL YOU CARRY SELLER ,FINANCING, AND NO MONEY DOWN…..AMORTIZE THE DEBT OVER 50 YEARS AT 1.5%, PLUS COVER ALL THE SELLING AND BUYING EXPENCES, PLUS THROW IN THE TWO BMW’S….oK I settle for one BMW…
Oh,,,and you will have to pay the association dues, electric, water and sewer and taxes….and provide for free green fees, plus a boat slip…..That should cover just about everything…….
You drive a hard bargain, In the Box! Let me think about it.
I am just trying to get into the swing of the NEW WAVE,OBAMA PLAN……forget “a chicken in every pot” FDR plan…..besides, FDR’S social security is broke, and BO has promised you would provide……
Big Al,
I do a lot of reading and listening to financial programs (when I’m not travelling) and I keep on hearing about year-end tax-loss selling. Basically, I hear pundits predicting that the market will drop this month because of people selling to reduce their taxes. I analyse this thinking as wrong! If I have a loss in stocks, I simply ask myself: should I sell now or in January next year? Expecting taxes to jump up next year, my answer is take the loss next year, not this. Thus I expect tax-loss selling to take place in January not this month. What do you say?
CFS,
Continued thanks for all your fine input…
CFS, I agree with your assessment of the conventional markets—-I say this not from the reasoning you gave (which could be accurate) but from a TA standpoint. Next week should see a continual move up for the conventional markets. I’ve said for some time that the conventional markets would outperform the PMs.
Regarding tax loss .I sell my losers to offset my winners during 2012 and try to end up with a zero capital gain for 2012 In Canada the deadline is Dec. 27.I dont see the rationale in selling in Jan2013 for a tax loss whenthere is 11 months for potential gain
Greg,
I take your point. In the past, I have tended to do tax loss selling at year end to cancel out gains taken and reduce taxes. I also tend to look more carefully and ensure I take losses before short-term losses turn into long-term losses, and are thus less useful to reduce taxation. It is these that I would put off to next year if possible.
I guess it depends on what kind of stock buyer you are. i.e. whether you are mostly buy and hold person or more a trader. About half my stocks are real long term holds and a quarter fall into less than a year holds. I just seem to have more time to look and analyse around Christmas – I know I should be doing it all the time!
Cfs. Great points. The best to you
Tax loss selling in Canada usually occurs in December so the write-off can be realized sooner rather than later. Often times the customary action is to re-purchase the stock in January at a decreased level.
Al also have to wait 30 days from the date of the sell to repurchase I dont know if the US has that rule?
Yes, the US has tax-wash rule.
Not sure, but I knew that was the case in Canada. Thanks!
Segment 8: Charity
May I make a comment about tax minimization.
I do not give cash money.
I give a stock certificate (which costs me $25 to get + plus my origin cost of the shares.)
If the stock is one that has increased in value considerably, this is very tax-efficient.
Because I get to deduct the value of the shares involved at the time of giving. i.e. I avoid the capital gains.
On the other hand, the charity to which I give the share is tax-free, so it does pay tax. This is a win-win, as far as I am concerned. (and one of the few ways I have of raising my middle finger to Government.)
That, my friend, is a great point. And, not just about raising your middle finger!
Segment 2. need new money, I agree, billions have been leaving the markets for weeks, since mf global, @ kwn the metals dealer is saying he had big buying this week,
500k buyers, thats physical, I have read the cost of an once now is somewhere around 1300, if oil goes up thats gonna put alot of preasure on gold mining.
A list of “more in bank than shares sell for” would be nice, but the way I see it is people dont want in. Eventually enough people are going to find out how criminal the N.A. markets are and stay away with a 10 foot pole. China is at least attempting to clean up corruption but the U.S. courts are supporting it. It is now said that 80% of trades is algo, how can a guy beat that? I just see alot of people staying away, moving to physical gold and silver as its much safer to hold it in your hand instead of giving it to a broker who owns your cash as soon as you put it in the account.
Seg 3. Rick is talking about exactly what I am saying, good companies and people dont “recognise” them. I am saying people do recognise them but they are on crooked markets, and thats what people dont want to be involved with. just my opinion. lets see what happens.
Maybe I not as smart as I think I am!
Benb, You complain that 80% of trading is algorithmic, implying that this is wrong.
Sure, I’m slightly jealous because I can’t do the same thing, but so what.
A big problem in my mind is that the spread between bid and offer prices can be quite large and any stock I buy must gain that much before I even break even with a purchase. Any stock, however, which is subject to algorithmic trading tends to have a smaller bid-offer spread, so I personally see algorithmic trading as advantageous in this regard.
Am I so wrong in thinking this way? Everyone seems to condemn algo, but isn’t that just jealousy ? The only downside I see is that because of the speed of algo, I may get beaten out in getting the best price for a stock in a rapidly moving market, but I accept that anyway, because my broker can take several seconds to enter an order and algo works in milliseconds.
Maybe your thinking is right cfs but the way I see it is the algo determines the price, Isnt that how thousands of contracts get sold/bought in seconds?
Markets should be determining price, not the algo.
Its all just “fubar” and until its repaired and those responsible dealt with we gonna continue to have “fubar” markets. Gotta remember, these guys with the algo are trying to take your cash. Goldman just anounced that they expect gold to go down in 2013, knowing they bet against their own customers which way is gold going?
Maybe your right cfs but I cant help seeing it the way I do.
Interesting thoughts benb. I can’t agree at this point. I agree, in part about the markets, but I still believe there are profits to be had.
Yes, there are still profits Al, but for the “average” guy, like the people I know, they dont spend hours in research, if your not prepared to research your better off hiring someone if you want to play. But think about this, Max Kaiser is about the #1 most listened to person on economics on the planet, millions and millions listen to that guy, and what is he saying repeatedly? its crooked, hang them etc, how many new people are going to want to get into markets? geez, the government has told us they have plunge protectoion,millions and billions leaving every week, whats keeping the markets up? algo is my guess, nothing saying the markets wont go up tho, somebody is running things, Paul Craig Roberts thinks its the military others guess the banks, all I think its sombody, but whoever it is, its rigged. Most people dont like rigged games.
No they certainly don’t. And, I certainly don’t blame them. I just do what I do.
Hi Al.
Larry Reaugh released the Kemetco report on CMD the other day and the company states it will aggressively pursue that project pending financing.
Can you get Larry on the program again to discuss with you the vision of pursuit of this project for 2013. Getting past the tax loss season is first, but after that, what exactly does Larry envision the company will be doing to advance it. Also, maybe he can discuss the objective of securing a battery side partner. Does the Kemetco report get the company any closer to that endeavour?
Thanks
We will address this on Monday.
Clearly my mind is faster than my typing today!…….
The tax-free charity (I meant to say above) does NOT pay taxes.
Sorry, I’ll to proof-read more carefully, and shut-up for now.
I assumed that was what you meant.
It’s interesting that Rick uses the Eliot wave theory to outline his scenario. Do you also realize TR uses the same and comes to an opposite point of view. And that’s why I don’t use that theory since I believe it is open to the follower’s personal subjective interpretation and is difficult to see the end points of the waves. I stick to historical charts and more immediate charts along with major uptrend lines, moving averages, momentum indicators, strength indicators, and Bollinger bands.
Agree Richard EW can produce totally different outlooks, I knew of nobody who used it regarding currency trading…..still love a good french curve trend, yum
So using the tools you mention did you call Silver’s breakout Aug 31st as silver broke above the upper resistance in place since $49.82 April 2011 high through Feb 2012 high at $37.58 finally breaking out above that trendline at $32.00 ? Gold did the same breaking above resistance at $1660 from its Sept 2011 high through its Feb 2012 high
My fav Silver miner FR put in a nice 30% gain following that breakout in three weeks before consolidating
You can say that again Doc!
EW is ABSOLUTELY and POSITIVELY HIGHLY accurate…in hindsight. I can take a chart and look for patterns, support/resistance lines, pivot points, through in a momentum indicator, a few moving averages and viola’! I can make better projections based on price action and pattern formations that with EW. No thanks. Buy the way, I do agree somewhat with Rick’s price in that gold still has a bit more downside to go. You can get close to calling a top or bottom by watching price action and momentum.
stay frosty! It’s finally starting to snow here
Just went and looked at some touring equipment. Speaking of snow!
The old ski instructor and patroller.
Richard,
I have invested for 15 years using the tools you mention except for one. I cannot understand Bolinger Bands. I have read and read and tried to associate the band readings with the other indicators with no luck. My hats off to you and those that truly know how to interpret the bands.
Regards.
In re segment 8:
“You don’t have to do that!” was the response from the grocery store beneficiary of a random kindness. It is difficult to underestimate the debilitating effect of ‘kindness’.
I often discuss with people considering their legacy the reality that unearned money can be more of a curse than it is a blessing. The altruism Al and Gordon Holmes highlight are beautiful gestures of kindness. The question remains to what end. Particular merit should be placed on the Wheel Chair Foundation for it is a charity without a flaw. However some charitable efforts are much less perfect. Returning to the grocery store benefactor comment “You do not have to do that!” comment with the following question being posed: Is it possible we do too much. In the 1930’s Great Depression people would sooner die than to take charity. The same could be said in 1840’s England illustrated in the following passage from “A Christmas Carol”:
First Collector: At this festive time of year, Mr. Scrooge, it is more than usually desirable that we should make some slight provision for the poor and destitute.
Ebenezer: Are there no prisons?
First Collector: Plenty of prisons.
Ebenezer: And the union workhouses – are they still in operation?
First Collector: They are. I wish I could say they were not.
Ebenezer: Oh, from what you said at first I was afraid that something had happened to stop them in their useful course. I’m very glad to hear it.
First Collector: I don’t think you quite understand us, sir. A few of us are endeavoring to buy the poor some meat and drink, and means of warmth.
Ebenezer: Why?
First Collector: Because it is at Christmastime that want is most keenly felt, and abundance rejoices. Now what can I put you down for?
Ebenezer: Huh! Nothing!
Second Collector: You wish to be anonymous?
Ebenezer: [firmly, but calmly] I wish to be left alone. Since you ask me what I wish sir, that is my answer. I help to support the establishments I have named; those who are badly off must go there.
First Collector: Many can’t go there.
Second Collector: And some would rather die.
A lesson taught is often missed from the unreformed miser’s message. A safety net was there as bleak as it was. The tax supported unpleasant nature of it made it net less relied upon. The fact of the matter is when 47 million Americans rely on food stamps our country has a problem of dependency not one of poverty. Could it be that the lady in the grocery line was not fumbling for money in her purse but was searching for a misplaced food stamp debit card? She could easily have been 1 of the 1 in 6 Americans would eats subsidized food.
Tough love is not supporting undesired behavior. Much of the charity we see today encourages the dependency where a higher goal would be self-reliance. One should not be deterred from anonymously tossing a silver round in the red kettle but take care not to encourage bad behavior.
I find not a flaw in The Wheel Chair Foundation. But care should be taken especially this time of year for giving to generously to causes much less worthy. Examine your charity as you would a junior mining company. Give generously but just as if investing do your own due diligence.
Finally, The Ghost of Marley was an awesome marketing device to deride a hoarder of precious metals.
The Ghost of Marley so chained to his bounty for an imprisoned eternity. Imprisoned to drag the weight of it about and thereby so graphically illustrated to countless readers and audiences the evils of a precious metals hoard. But care should be taken to be a steward.
In the end Scrooge would have had nothing to give wisely or not had he not stored his capital. He could have not given Bob Cratchit a raise had he squandered his funds on prior occasions. As with most things balance is needed when both giving and receiving. The giver should take care to remain solvent and the recipient should take care not to become dependent on the efforts of others. For when a random act of kindness occurs the grocery store beneficiary response is what we want to here because “you do not have to do that” is reality. More important than the kindness not being compelled is the recipient’s desire for self-reliance which is much too much overlooked.
The dependency of many will in the end reward the miserly independent few. Then the disparaged eccentric can again bail out the masses from their economic dire straits. In the end Scrooge was not an eccentric old miser he was a survivor in a world of monetary mayhem.
I just love SCROOGE….., and SCROOGE MCDUCK……, reminds me of IRISH MCDUCK…..
HUMMMM BUG…….
The etymology of the word ‘humbug’ is fascinating and sometimes highly ironic.
A Gaelic version of the term is said to derive from a debased coin translating back to a term ‘Uim-bog’ or soft copper. However, there is little primary source evidence for this being Irish tale being correct. Which favors other histories of the popular 18th century expression that tends to mean something for which there is no evidence like the Gaelic purported derivation for the word’s origin.
MR. IRISH , NEEDS to chime in here….since, he speaks Gaelic….
Maybe Irish can translate this:
Seo sláinte an tséitéara, an ghadaí, an trodaí, agus an óltóra!
Má dhéanann tu séitéireacht, go ndéana tú séitéireacht ar an mbás,
Má ghoideann tú, go ngoide tú croí mná;
Má throideann tú, go dtroide tú i leith do bhráthar,
Agus má ólann tú, go n-óla tú liom féin
I could only translate the part where it says…….
Ma ghoidenann tu, go,ngooide tu………meaning…” to go ,or not to go.”……
then it says….Ma and Agus..go no to…..
of course I am joking…….
Seo sláinte an tséitéara, an ghadaí, an trodaí, agus an óltóra!
This is the toast of the cheater, the thief, the fighter, and the drinker
Má dhéanann tu séitéireacht, go ndéana tú séitéireacht ar an mbás
If you cheat, may you cheat death
Má ghoideann tú, go ngoide tú croí mná
If you steal, may you steal the heart of a woman
Má throideann tú, go dtroide tú i leith do bhráthar
If you fight, may you fight on the side of your brother
Agus má ólann tú, go n-óla tú liom féin
And if you drink, may you drink with me
Great Dennis M!
I like J kaiser thinking about looking for high reward companies. I think his looking for 100-200% gains is low tho, to me it looks like, in time, you get that with physical, so why risk it on the market for 100%? I look for maybe 100x-200x gains, unless of course you can get your profit of 100% or better in a few days.
Bemb. Do you subscribe to Kaiser? I used to in the 90’s when a subscription cost$100 and all issues were mailed. I believe a basic yearly is now around $1000? A bit pricey..But i guess it only takes one big gainer …
Hi Greg, no I dont subscibe to anyone I would have to pay for, Partly because I think the best is free (for the way I think) but mainly because I know so many really good oportunities now and have for actually years, that I am never going to have enough cash to invest in all of them anyway. So, why pay for more?
I think subscrptions can be good for people, when your thinking matches the writers thinking and I think, sometimes other guys are good for people like schiff or leeb etc, just let them do it all for you. I wouldnt choose a banks thinking tho. just me.
Sorry the following is a bit of tout for Trafigura, but it represents some of the latest european thinking on how China is going to do next year. (And since most Americans don’t scan though as much european literature as I do, I thought it worth bringing to your attention.)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-04/trafigura-forecasts-china-rebound-as-sales-profit-drop-in-2012.html
Also, I want to mention the Emperor Obama just left on vacation (yet again).
This what not mentioned on the program and I think this will reduce the chances of any fiscal cliff settlement prior to year’s end.
Emperor O…BO LITTLE STINKER,BO ZO…..is one of those , you owe me,and I am going to soak you morons, as long as the gettins good…..to heck with tomarrow, for today I live….but, after all , he did get the popular vote…
Jerry OTB my man. BO got the popular vote from the unpopular people. They too shall wake up once this moron shafts them which shouldn’t be too long. 6.5 billion a year for his fancy parties and jetsetting is only the beginning. Wait till he soaks the hollywoodies.
HI JERRY GATOR…..as you can tell, I have offically renamed BO…”LITTLE STINKER”,and someone else, named him BO ZO… ,,so, I think it fitting That BO..”short for body oder”,is hereby fitting for all the stinking ripoffs, this Well respected politican is about to bestow on his serfs….
I just came across an article that will interest you silver bugs:
http://news.yahoo.com/middle-east-beginning-embrace-solar-energy-063409749–finance.html
Steven Leeb just recently talked ..yelled… about silver and solar on KWN
they are going to need a lot of silver…..Silver may be the play for 2013
For the week the CFTC’s COT’s report showed about a 10% decrease in the commercial’s gold short position. If that continues in the next 3-4 weeks, it’ll be an encouraging indicator.
Thanks, Doc!
Greg,
The other rapidly increasing use is in healthcare/bactericide. The UK NHS recently OK’d the purchase of over 100 million pounds (price not weight) of bandages with silver threads and both the US and the UK are either buying or testing army socks that include silver threads. (I have no idea how many ozs of silver per year this adds up to, however.)
In the 2009-2010 tax year the UK raised the highest rate of income tax rate was changed from 40% to 50%, with the idea of raising revenue.
The result: Almost 2/3 of the the million pounds+ per year earners disappeared from the country. In actual numbers 16,000 million+ earners came down in the following year to 6,000.
The effect on revenue was a loss of 7 billion pounds.
As casino magnate Steve Wynn recently said when the taxes on dividends are too high, companies don’t distribute. That is why almost 200 companies have also distributed early this year instead of next.
When will stupid politicians ever learn there are NON-LINEAR effects in changing tax rates?
At least the UK recognized the effect and recently moved back down the 50% rate to 40%
Yep, cfs, higher taxes are definitely NOT THE ANSWER!
Al:
Thanks for the Holmes interview. About 7 years ago I had to to ask the question what in the world can I do as only one person to help alleviate world suffering and poverty?
I received an interesting answer on, of all places, the internet: To one person, I might be the entire world……………………………….
Alas, I feel we will indeed get higher taxes and that is why I have reluctantly decided enough is enough and am going to leave the US.
I also feel the US has passed the tipping point into terminal decay.
I reach this reluctant conclusion based on the following data from Richard Russell in his latest letter:
In Obama’s first term,
Medicaid recipients have grown from 46 to 56 million,
Disability recipients have grown from 7.5 to 8.8 million,
Food stamp recipients have grown from 32 to 47 million,
and 46 million people are receiving social security.
In total we have 120 million people receiving entitlements and only 115 million paying income taxes.
Essentially, whether deliberate (which I suspect) or not, Obama has created a country in which money is being transferred from the producers to the non-producers to such an extent that we have gone past the tipping point. This clearly not sustainable. The US will be forced to print money, because it will not accept losing face in default, and this implies an ever-declining dollar; a declining economy and terminal decay.
There is nothing I can do to affect this future other than to leave to a more stable country and get the hell out of US dollars.
You might say the US Government is a poorly run corrupt charity with a very powerful army.
The Salivating Army?
Pretty strong argument on your part, cfs!
TA Comments:
Usually, when I’m at home on a Saturday evening, with a glass of wine in one hand, I run a bunch of technical analysis.
A day or two ago, I mentioned that there were many uranium stocks showing turn ups. It is well worth looking at some of these….I won’t pick out any specific stocks, because I don’t think Big Al wants any stock-pushing, but almost 50% of the Uranium stocks I follow are looking pretty good chart-wise.
Looking at a long-term chart of the Japanese Yen versus the dollar is interesting. It looks to me it has been basing for quite a while, double bottomed between mid-2011 and early 2012, re-tested recently and contrary to what many market commentators have said, now appears to be heading higher; much higher. (There will be resistance around 84.2 and 85.4, but this looks like a long-term advance.)
The chart of Freeport McMoran FCX really suddenly became interesting after it’s big drop earlier this week when it proposed a takeover of PXP and getting into the energy business. This takeover may be investigated because of personal involvement of one person influential in both companies, and FCX may ultimately have to consult its shareholders, which it was not planning to do. However, the chart is showing such an over-sold condition for FCX that I would be shocked if it did not bounce back in the near term.
Disclaimer: I have never bought FCX shares, but I do own some as a result of its takeover of other companies in which I did hold shares. I mention this chart, so people might learn something more about TA.
Final comment about TA. On Financialsense today, Ralph Acampora mentioned he is about 2 months away from putting a TA course on the internet. In my opinion he is an outstanding technical analyst .
Please cfs, mention any specific companies that you would like.
From one wine drinker to another!
I don’t think Big Al will mind this!
I just did the chart of NZ.V
It looks that this stock is technically due for short-term improvement.
(Can’t say long-term yet, but it’s getting there.)
Looks like it should go back up to $1.6 in a couple of months.
No cfs, I don’t mind that at all!
Big Al,
When you next talk with Ms Baillie, I assume she’s on the board of NZ.V, you might make the comment that the board is lousy at filing SEDI reports, and in actually failing to file them on time or at all!
It’s nice to see insider buying, but if they don’t file SEDI reports on time or correctly, one sure has to dig harder.
Howdy, no cfs she is not on the Board.
Big AL,
I just asked Stockcharts.com to include Westhaven Ventures to the companies it covers. Apparently no one has tried to look it up before on what, I thought, was the most popular TA charting site!
(Impressive insider buying on that stock!)
I could not agree with you more, cfs!
Big Al
I’m looking for a downward movement in Rick Ackerman. He is more part of the game then not.
Uranium stocks are out of favor but a good time to buy.Be a contrarian….
Nothing will keep the lights on for the masses like the nuclear power plants .They are clean,reliable and energy efficient.We just need to build them natural disaster proof.
Being a contrarian doesn’t mean switching off one’s brain. Look at NY to see who, among the general public, had light when the grid came down, and who did not. I suggest that all the nuclear fanboys of Marin Katusa and Mickey Fulp also invest in a stock of iodine to give to their neighbors, when they themselves will hurry to travel and build dams of sand or boron at the next reactor that blows up.
Two guys, by the way, who are not too fond of each other!
James,
You say Uranium stocks are out of favor, but have you actually plotted their behaviour since mid-November?
Might be a good time to buy them, Pat, but I currently am not.
An astonishing article about the US DEBT CRISIS by Adam Hamilton was posted on 321gold.com this past week. Reference: 321gold.com/editorials/hamilton/hamilton120712.
If you have time, please read this article. I think it is one of the best articles about this subject that I have read. A great job by Mr. Hamilton in my view.
Thanks Bob!
Rick Ackerman has it backwards about hyperinflation. He’s looking at debtors and creditors within society when he should be lumping all of society together in terms of net debt. When the currency is destroyed, all of society (debtors and creditors alike), is forced to pay down the debt. Currency destruction is evidence that the biggest, most powerful creditors are getting paid. It is evidence that wealth is being transferred, NOT destroyed. The longer the Fed props-up the bond market, the greater the destruction will be within the U.S. since this action allows the biggest (and/or smartest) holders of U.S. debt to sell their holdings back to the U.S. at artificially high prices. When the bond market finally rolls over, those creditors will be well diversified/hedged, while the U.S. will be more exposed than ever.
The dollar is only the best currency in a deflationary scenario -and as long as it remains the senior reserve currency. As long as the system does not fall apart, it is the worst of the West. Since the lows over ten years ago, gold is up 5.35x in euros; 5.2x in yen; 4.2x in Swiss francs; 4.5x in Canadian dollars; and 4.2x in Aussie dollars. If one held those five currencies in equal amounts, gold would have gone up 4.7x against the group. Measured in dollars, gold has gone up 6.7x over the same period.
“PROFESSOR”, (Matthew)
Just excellent….RA doesnt get it and he sells newsletters to who? Big Al, A LOT of your participants here should be professional purveyors of the “HARD ASSET TRUTH”……BTW, not me – I just see the Big picture and act accordingly. These guys, slice and dice the truth INCREDIBLY well……..well done guys!
Marc
You, my friend, are right there with all of us! (But then, you know that don’t you!)
Good point, Matthew!
Al:
I have been a junior mining resource enthusiast for decades. However, this bull market is long in the tooth and charts like this bother me. For the first time in a decade, FCNTX (fidelity’s large contra fund) is outperforming its fold fund (FSAGX). I have enclosed a link to the chart. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FCNTX:FSAGX&p=M&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p68768584841&a=270240396&r=1355073820306&cmd=print
My worry is that this run is over for the time being and we are back to 1997-2001 type market, or worse, 1980-2001. I too feel that gold/silver etc have not had the blow off like occurred in 1980, and that gives me some hope for a final great rally. Just food for thought.
I think we are looking at a HUGE double bottom. Look at the 30 year monthly chart of the XAU priced in gold. It shows that the miners have not been overbought on a monthly basis since the middle of 1994 (based on the RSI and full stochastics that I use). On the 30 year weekly chart, the RSI became overbought very briefly in 2002 and 2003 -still 10 years ago. Technically, the risk/reward picture looks very good. Fundamentally, it looks superb. In hindsight, a couple years from now, the current period will be recognized as the opportunity of a lifetime.
I hope so…Professor…I really think so.
Secular bull markets can last from 20-30 years with,of course cyclical bear markets lasting typically 6 months to 3 years along the way.
You do make a good point, Dan P!
I;however, think that we have a bit of time and I am acting accordingly.
Dan,
There’s something strange about FSAGX
I plotted FSAGX:$GOLD and that simply kept dropping thru the period
Possibly, but I seen the same pattern whether one uses HUI, another gold fund, etc. True, Gold is still performing better than FCNTX(contra), but that is comparing a commodity with a stock fund, which is a little different.
When we see liberals and conservatives supporting the person, it’s because that person supports the Constitution, which in turn protects both liberals and conservatives, specifically their freedoms, from the overreach of of the state. Freedom is the common denominator; the common enemy is totalitarianism; the firewall is our Constitution.
Amen, BJ, and another Amen!
I listened to the first newshour on Financialsense this weekend,
http://www.financialsensenewshour.com/broadcast/fsn2012-1208-1.mp3
and the consensus appeared to be that we are currently at the start of a cyclical Bull market within a secular bear market for general stocks.
Typically if that is true, financial stocks will lead the upturn.
Looking at XLF, the S&P financial sector ETF, it does appear that an upturn started in mid-november.
Most of us have felt that way for quite some time now, cfs!
Here’s some TA
XLI – Industrial Select Sector SPDR (AMEX)
Date Open High Low Last Change Volume % Change
12/07/12 37.46 37.51 37.25 37.50 +0.25 6770900 +0.67%
Composite Indicator
Trend Spotter TM Buy
Short Term Indicators
7 Day Average Directional Indicator Buy
10 – 8 Day Moving Average Hilo Channel Buy
20 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy
20 – 50 Day MACD Oscillator Sell
20 Day Bollinger Bands Hold
Short Term Indicators Average: 40% – Buy
20-Day Average Volume – 10069149
Medium Term Indicators
40 Day Commodity Channel Index Buy
50 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy
20 – 100 Day MACD Oscillator Buy
50 Day Parabolic Time/Price Buy
Medium Term Indicators Average: 100% – Buy
50-Day Average Volume – 11087034
Long Term Indicators
60 Day Commodity Channel Index Buy
100 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy
50 – 100 Day MACD Oscillator Buy
Long Term Indicators Average: 100% – Buy
100-Day Average Volume – 12031084
Overall Average: 80% – Buy
Price Support Pivot Point Resistance
37.50 37.16 37.42 37.68
Another example of silver use…..
Some rare earths are beginning to move, lead by MCP that showed a massive buy signal back in mid-november, as I pointed out previously.
For those of you that want to listen to some TA, try:
http://breakpointtrades.com/market_analysis/legacy.php?nl_id=1355
I personally am slightly different in that I place a higher importance on the relative strength indicator than on wave-counts.
SEG…4,5…THE ECONOMY…..the future,.. one only has to look at the recent proposal of FED EX, which is offering to it’s employees,,,a two years in wages, for the opportunity to retire,…. IF , looking forward, which FED EX. is forward thinking, the future business outlook , does not look to opportunistic…..2013…IS NOT LOOKING TO GREAT…..
Staying away from small companies, with $200,000 in working cash is a no brainer,,,,,these are companies, which do not have any ability to cover the overhead, when you do not have enough money to cover, employee cost….. THEY.ARE OUT OF BUSINESS…BROKE, KAPUT….END OF STORY…..