A turn is imminent in the market
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This is the most important show we’ve ever done.
We believe a turn is imminent in the market.
Segments 1-4: Joining me in the first hour John Embry and Rick Rule share their thoughts.
Segments 5-6: In the second hour my old friend John Wheeler joins Jeff Deist and I sharing his forty five years of experience in the mining stock community.
As always we would like your response.
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Have you looked into a self-directed IRA?
I have two self directed IRAs. That is not the problem. The problem is what to do if they order “for your safety” you can only invest in treasury bonds.
And that would make me very angry!
Big Al
Warren Buffett was asked a couple of years ago if the US could go bankrupt under its out of control debt? He said no the government has the right to tax the public in any emergency.
Cyprus? Its only a matter of time . Governments gave you a tax break putting your money into 401ks. Like the Fram filter guys says “you can pay me now or pay me latter”
The only safe way to keep your money is in cash or gold.Gold pays no interest nor does the CDs at the bank so why risk a US defalut when you are not collecting any interest as a margin of saftey.
Obama has spent more in his 8 yr term than all the Presidents combined post George Washington
US= Cyprus, you bet but it could be 10 months away or 10yrs.But if the ghost cities in Chinas property bubble implode this ys as many think it will.Then China will not be able to fund US debt if their economy collapsed.If china can not buy US debt then the government will turn to the savers in the US will see their wealth confinscated.Cyprus was the wiggle before the quake. The question is did anyone here besides me feel it?
Of course, Matt R and that is why I have a self directed Defined Benefit Pension Plan.
Big Al
Al: I hope your not still mad at me, but if you are that is OK, heck even my wife is mad at me most of the time.
As Per cfs question regarding confiscation or grab of retirement, they are already doing it through devaluation of currency. And if that does not work with respect to their economic plan for growth to outpace debasement, they will grab everything they can.
Look at it this way, whatever is less likely to impact negatively income to the government either through jobs or growth they will grab. That puts gold at the top of list for the US in confiscation, but like guns gold is just as difficult to grab an not likely to solve any of the economic problems.
Fact is the Fed members DON’T know what they are doing, Bernanke has no clue and neither will Yellen which will replace him next year. This means the US will have rapid series of replaced leadership just like Japan for some time, at least until something happens worldwide that shocks Americans into realizing that they can not continue to live beyond their means. Most likely this will be failure of the US dollar as being kept in reserve by other currencies. When this happens judgement day arrives for America.
Trust me Clay,
I am not angry. Why should I be?
Big Al
clay….Judgment day is coming sooner than most people think, & when it hits they wont understand whats happening, sadly today the people will only be concerned about who has won , the x factor, or who has won dancing on ice, or who won the football, & what freebie’s they can get from there caring govt. the decades of brainwashing by the govt , bankers , & the media…has finally paid off.
They won’t necessarily confiscate (initially), although, such remains a possibility. However, one should be more concerned with how one will be able to invest their funds, as well as access such within retirement vehicles.
In essence, it’s more likely/probable that They will force retirement accounts to invest directly into Govt. Bonds (Treasuries) in order to support their global Ponzi.
Direct Confiscation; Inflation; Taxation; Capital Controls; Price Controls and ultimately War.
At present. we’re witnessing global economic warfare. Whether such reverts to military conflict, we’re about to find out in due time.
Best of luck.
Morning Simon,
I have chosen to deal with present day reality (whatever the duration of that may be) instead of making myself crazy with potential actions.
Big Al
Agreed in part Big Al. It definitely could make one crazy considering what if scenarios. However, dealing with the immediate did not work out for many middle income folks in Cyprus that maybe should have taken “drastic” actions in light of “potential” actions. Like most all on this site, we like to be informed… and it’s hard to ignore what is not a stretch of the imagination if the writing really is on the wall… Maybe it’s as simple as adjustment in trading/investment strategy and the duration of a particular trade.
Of course, I feel sorry for the average Cypriot.
My point is that I just feel it is very important, particularly in these times, to keep a level head and be able to react quickly.
Best to you, Brad H
Big Al
Brad……Fools who put their trust in govt. & banks….deserve to be ripped off…..
once people lose trust in themselves…they are doomed.
Al…..That’s the way to go , common sense……Because none of us will be able to prevent the shit hitting the fan , & hit the fan it will.
Hi Irish,
I have a number of replies for you.
First of all many thanks for your comments about common sense m.p.h.
Also, than in you for your comments about self sufficiency.
Lastly, judgement day? You bet, it is coming. Be prepared.
God bless and Mr Irish we wish you a very blessed Easter.
Many thanks for your input.
Big Al
Irish, fine I’m an idealist then in so far as I would like at least my close friends and family to grasp the gravity of what could come and prepare.
Morning CFS,,
Regarding the expert input, I particularly liked Wheeler’s. I would agree that people’s risk tolerance will increase slowly but surely. It’s simply human nature.
Regarding confiscation, anything is possible but I choose to not dwell on it at this point. My head is staying warm in the sand!
Big Al
With all the flying I’ve been doing lately, I’ve got a line on barf bags real cheap, if that helps.
For the happy IRA holder who has it all, I think using a self-directed account and buying other hard assets (art, property, metals, whatever-you-know, etc.) so that your wealth is more than a book entry might offer some hurdle to a forced trade into T-bills. And of course, in-home or overseas storage.
Actually, John W, I am kind of getting interested in artwork!
Big Al
I am fairly certain Sprott Inc. is at the very least partially responsible by pulling out their vast natural resource positions and therefore selling the market down into the toilet, now will redeploy their resources into the resource markets they helped plunder.
Everyone is bagged ,knifed and quartered and yet they are “giddy”.
Makes one warm all over,don’t it?
Not sure that I would agree that (if it is true) would be a malicious action or just carrying out client instructions. Markets are supposed to be free!
Big Al
Most hard working people never invest in stocks or shares.
They live their lives and try to save a little something that is usually taken from them in the form of taxes and inflation.
Look at the resource sector and how it has totally screwed all retailers in 2008/9 and again in the last six months.
The bankers and large money players can’t keep this game of theft up and hope to have any body left to play their game.
We realized great profits from our investing in 2008 and 2009¡
Couple of very scary years, but they sure worked out!
Big Al
Ah,but good Canadian savers were resource invested in Income Trusts.
Did not work out so well for Canadians.
Okay, but common sense had worked for me.
Notice I said common sense and not hopes and dreams!
Big Al
Yeah,hopes and dreams went away with Goldman Sachs.
At present, the metals (Gold/Silver) remain mired in consolidation within Phase II of the super-cycle secular bull market. Bull and Bear markets contain Three (3) Phases with interruptions between Phase I-II, as well as II-III. We presently reside in the latter (between II-III).
That being said, we’re looking for $3-$5K Gold; $200-$250 Silver, which represents a 15-20:1 Gold/Silver ratio when the dust settles.
Could we see 10K Gold; $500 Silver?
Very possible, whereby this terrible experiment undertaken via global fiscal and monetary policy makers ultimately leads to a global hyper-inflationary depression.
As for the resource stocks: Some will not partake in the final Phase due to lack of capital; Poor decisions, while others will be acquired as has been the case of the past dozen years.
Nevertheless, those that do survive and partake in the final Phase III move, such will resemble that of the mania stage…a la dotcon [sic] bubble.
Tremendous gains lie ahead for those with strong – disciplined management; sufficient capital; prudent decisions with shareholders interest’ priority above and beyond that of their own.
Every great secular Bull Market attempts to knock one off of its back.
The question that remains is: Will you dust yourself off and remount, or run the risk of being left behind in the final Phase (III), which more than likely will prove explosive?
Much obliged for the great Show’.
Have a wonderful weekend everyone.
I like how your posts start with “Simon says:”
I think net of inflation, 10K gold and $500 silver are well within reach.
The bailouts in the EU, and our ongoing bailout with QE here stateside, heretofore have not affected the purchasing power of currencies. One need not be an economic scholar to see that exchange rates and currencies are highly controlled, because adding 120% more currency every year than what is currently circulating has never failed to produce inflation…until now.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/currency_12773.htm
Of course, the borrowed or QE’d or twisted funds that cause $1.3 trillion deficits for 4 years in a row, have not fully made their way into circulation, just the accounts of very large institutions, public and private, light and dark.
What that hits the fan…
(I wonder how much CAN hit the fan, before the fan itself bogs down and breaks? The metaphor breaks down, along with the fan, but it doesn’t stir up a nice visual, does it?)
John w,
Can I inquire as to your reasoning for the 500.00 silver? Not that I disagree but because I am more comfortable with logic which you have an ample supply of.
Warm regards.
You bet Jerry,
USD index ~82 right now. In 5 years, it could be 1/4 that…it won’t seem like it when it occurs, because other weak currencies will drop with it. But the $30/oz price today becomes $120/oz due to the loss of value, requiring more dollars to buy the same amount of silver. I realize many people think that silver is predominantly industrial metal, and should be treated as such. I remember 1979 amazingly well (and 1981)…silver was on the heels of gold all the way up. Gold is purchased first as a store of value, but silver follows. Lags in prices of one or the other should, in all normal circumstances, be ignored. Platinum also did well at the time, though not quite the same multiplier as gold.
Continuing, then…there is also the fear trade; the desire to store wealth in a form outside of dollars (or whatever currency). By how much? It’s all a guess, Jerry, and I’m under no delusions about that, so neither should you be. But look how much silver and gold went up from 1975 to 1981: silver around $4/oz to $22, and gold around $150/oz to $750, about 5 times. Therefore, I’m picking a similar number:
5 x $120 price due to inflation = $600/oz
Some would say this counts the same effect twice…inflation, and fear trade, as the 5x multiplier from 1975-1980 largely included both effects. That’s probably partly true, but it’s hard to separate the degree of price increases due to both of these effects. However, what they didn’t have back then were horrendous deficits…world wide. North Americans and some Europeans were largely the only ones accumulating then too, perhaps some gold in the Middle East. And that was with a fairly robust demand from individuals, not governments and central banks.
Today, producing mines funded in the 1990s’ have largely plowed through their reserves. There aren’t many new mines coming online for the next 5 years, at least not through publicly traded companies. China and Russia’s gluttonous appetite for gold is a new and profound demand that largely didn’t exist 30 years ago, and people in nations all over the world are just now, today in 2013, starting to subconsciously understand that they don’t really understand anything about the value of fiat money, as they are rudely reminded every 4-6 months after another nation needs bailing out. Individuals, all over the world, haven’t been the drivers of the last 12 year bull cycle either. You’ve heard all the comparisons I’m sure…all the gold ever mined would fit into a cube 60ft x 60ft x 60 ft. If everybody were to get their share…
So 5x times fear multiplier seems low. Between inflation and fear, a price increase of $30 today to $500 for silver is possible, requiring a net 17x multiplier. A 1,700 % increase is pretty incredible, don’t get me wrong. But the world’s money circumstances are pretty incredible too. It wouldn’t be the first time something inconceivable to the masses today will become completely acceptable and normal after it happens.
Were things today left to free markets alone, as it was (a little moreso) in the 1975-1979 time period, particularly prior to inventions like the PWG (PPT) and most forms of derivatives, prices couldn’t get that high…the currency would collapse much sooner, and a revaluation would occur. Volcker killed inflation, and while painful, there was a way out, reducing inflation and halting the metals advance. But with today’s artificial delays by central banks and governments staving-off the inevitable, and with no solution should of a polygamy of defaults by nations around the world, the peak price for silver and gold could get breathtakingly high.
…no solution SHORT of a polygamy of defaults by nations around the world, the peak price for silver and gold could get breathtakingly high.
Interesting point, John W!
Big Al
My opinion is that $500 silver is a stretch. At this point $50 is good for me!
Big Al
Great inhtsgi. Relieved I’m on the same side as you.
Very astute comments!
Thank you, Simon!
Big Al
Simon, John W.,
I WHOLEHEARTED agree. I tell this stuff to my family all the time.
Me too, Marc!
Bib Al
The metals (Gold/Silver), Gold in particular, is a direct indictment on central planners machinations within a flawed/fraudulent/corrupt fiat Ponzi system.
It is a piano scheme that is guaranteed to ultimately fail. And, this family knows that.
Big Al
Thanks for the inghist. It brings light into the dark!
Was/is the Cyprus ‘bail-in’ just as much about Russia’s support for Syria as it was about the condition of the Cyprus banks involved?
Cyprus was/is/is going to be bankrupt.
The currency controls did not work. The Russian loans plus the EU loans will save the situation temporarily, but adds to the millstone of debt around their neck. Cyprus is in probably a terminal period before a final collapse. As is Greece. Spain and Italy will be next after Slovenia (already in collapse).
Now that, Dennis M, is a very interesting question!
Big Al
Nothing is done in isolation is a throw away line in the artsy left community.
Nothing is done in isolation is reality in world affairs.
It is hard for me to believe Christine Laggard let the original botched trial balloon fly without a larger purpose than the perceived targeted problem.
Cyprus may not have been part of a currency war….Maybe there was a war and a currency battle came to Cyprus because of the war?
More interesting questions, Dennis M!
Big Al
Al & Dennis……As i stated a week ago, this was not the black swan everybody was waiting for , this was a whole flock of black swans…..this is BIG….this is global war, how it will play out, i dont know , what i do know is ..this is the tipping point or-castrated by the Zionist bankers.
We should begin to think of war as three dimensional chess.
Chess being played on a flat table is archaic.
A single battle may be fought on a field but wars are fought on several fronts.
We are at the stage of the kid game when the teams are finally picked and rules are being determined. Cyprus tells me there will be no holds barred.
Yes Dennis…”THEY” will play politics , to the determent of the people.
I don’t agree that Cyprus was a whole bunch of black swans.
Big Al
Sometimes I wonder who is talking what book.
I truly wish I still was a mogul rider!
Wishes from a former patrolled and then teacher.
Big and jealous Al
Rand Paul is part of the problem — not the solution. He’s establishment all the way.
His excusing amnesty and the ethnic invasion and displacement of the white founding ethnic is atrocious. People are fed up. Why is it always “African for Africans, Asia for Asians, White countries for Everyone?” NO MORE.
AS for the junior resource sector, I used to think I had a reasonable shot at identifying the undervalued, well run companies. But I don’t believe that anymore.
So I just can’t buy…
And I think that’s why a lot of investors can’t jump in here.
So Al, what are some of these companies that John Wheeler or others think are so extraordinary values?
Because there are a ton of stocks that are down 60%, but I don’t know anymore if they are good value.
I am betting on it as I have in the past.
By the way, taken in a non malicious non prejudicial tone your initial comments are interesting.
Big Al
Cecil,
I think your attitude in the first line above is myopic and short-sighted. We are ALL in this world together..learn to live with it my friend..you will be a lot better off…spiritually and less hard-hearted with your fellow man…..
These concerns are in fact long-sighted based on personal freedom and historical reality.
Interesting you think I am hard hearted. Who do you have a heart for?
If multiCULTuralism and Die-versity are so great, why are we keeping them for ALL and ONLY white countries?
Africa will still be filled with Africans, Asia will still be filled with Asians, only white children suffer as the hated “racist” minority in declining third world societies.
Why do you think that White children are just expendable assets to be sacrificed at the altar of multiculturalism?
No “anti-racists” say a 100% Asian area needs more diversity.
No “anti-racists” say a 100% Muslim area needs more diversity.
Whites have become the ultimate refugees, lost at home, refugees in their own nations, wanderers in their own cities.
The citizen of the first world often finds that he seems to belong less in his own country than the refugees flooding it.
Cheers and,
Happy Easter.
Another interesting point, cecilhenry!
Big Al
To each is own, my friend,
All the best,
Marc
Cecil,
I think your points are more than just interesting. They are valid and I won’t straddle the politically correct fence by skirting the issue. I totally agree with your assessment.
God bless Marc!
Big Al
It’s interesting that Teddy Roosevelt warned about the balkanization of countries 100 years ago.
“The one absolutely certain way of bringing this nation to ruin, of preventing all possibility of its continuing as a nation at all, would be to permit it to become a tangle of squabbling nationalities.”
President Roosevelt said, “In the first place, we should insist that if the immigrant who comes here in good faith becomes an American and assimilates himself to us, he shall be treated on an exact equality with everyone else, for it is an outrage to discriminate against any such man because of creed, or birthplace, or origin. But this is predicated upon the person’s becoming in every facet an American, and nothing but an American …There can be no divided allegiance here. Any man who says he is an American, but something else also, isn’t an American at all. We have room for but one flag, the American flag. We have room for but one language here, and that is the English language … and we have room for but one sole loyalty and that is a loyalty to the American people.”
Unfortunately Teddy and his cousin were the original culprits turning this country first to democracy and then to socialism, sowing the ultimate seeds of distruction.
Teddy was an imperialist. There would be no America if the founders believed that loyalty should be unconditional.
“Where freedom is, there is my country.” –Benjamin Franklin
Blind obedience supports socialism, not freedom. It makes sense that the pledge of allegiance was written by a socialist. Its was intended to make the people subservient to the state – the exact opposite of the founders intentions.
Although Taft was the President by the time of ratification of the seventeenth amendment, was it not Teddy that advocated direct election of Senators and is thus responsible for damned democracy instead of instead pf indirect election. Allowing for lobbyist and buying of votes from the electorate.
You’re right…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Nationalism
I don’t see much to like about the guy.
Amen, Doc, amen!
Big Al
I’m going to check out the music you suggest; I’m not failimar with it. Also, I will get some free downloads from HP games. I hope others will follow your lead. Thanks
Surprise, Surprise! Bitcoin to introduce first BITCOIN ATM in Cyprus:
Canadians. In the event of banking problems in Canada, you WILL be subject to similar Cyprus-style theft.
LONG PDF download:
http://www.budget.gc.ca/2013/doc/plan/budget2013-eng.pdf
Scroll down to p 145 and you can read it in Black and White
from a Canadian Government document, which uses the word “bail-in” several times.
One or two knowledgeable posters on the Cdn bank topic.
The ones on the other side of the discussion appear to be smart but brain washed victims in waiting.
The argument against a Cyprus-style bail-in made by an ikdiot, is that depositors assets will not be taken, but rather that more equity would be raised. The reason I called him an idiot is simply ; how effective can one guess would it be to raise equity for a failing or bankrupt bank voluntarily? Sure, you can raise equity by taking deposits and handing out shares in the bank, but is that basically not just theft?
Thanks Irwin!
Big Al
Thanks CFS,
I am off for my morning walk.
Big Al
Pleasant perambulations.
Meanwhile in Slovenia:
Slovenia has recently been given the same warning that Cyprus was first given……If you want an ECB loan, first get your banking system in order. Alas if Slovenia could do that, it wouldn’t need the loan!
As Cory mentioned in a Daily Editorial this past week.
Big Al
New update rec’d from expected returns:
Banks reopened in Cyprus and it appears to have been orderly. Part of the reason is that there’s a withdrawal limit of 300 Euros, so there’s not much the people can do anyway. The real fireworks will occur when the economy feels the pain from capital outflows from wealthy individuals, which will cause unemployment to rise as credit is constrained. It’s similar to the situation in the U.S. where there’s a soft cap on how much you can withdraw without getting crap from the banks, but no one really cares because we aren’t in a panic environment yet. But when the dollar rises due to European economic distress, and this creates unemployment, then people won’t be so calm anymore.
I always try to give investment insights in real-time so the lessons sort of stick. But right now your entire thinking should be based on a stronger dollar. Part of the reason I don’t spend hours analyzing companies is because there are far more valuable ways to spend your time that will yield greater results. Just by being right on the dollar, you are talking about 20%, 30%, or 40% “profits” easy. If I were an American in Europe, I would be interested in obtaining as much Euro-denominated debt as possible, provided I had an income expressed in dollars. Such an insight that takes about 5 minutes to think of is far more valuable than analyzing Apple vs Microsoft or whatever analysts do nowadays.
Dollars are going to have value in a way they haven’t since 2007-2008. From a domestic perspective we are talking about a correction in stocks and gold. From an international perspective we are talking about going long other currencies at favorable rates (for normal people via ETFs), or the purchase of real estate and other assets (for more established investors). Keep in mind that since most people aren’t expecting a big dollar dally they will overreact when it comes. So in general everything these people say you shouldn’t do is exactly what you should do. And I suspect they will be telling you to sell all your gold because it isn’t a safe haven anymore or something of that nature. That will be your sign because the order of this eventual rally in gold will probably be: 1) stronger dollar, 2) increased bearishness on gold/correction in gold, 3) monster rally that “no one” saw coming.
Disclaimer: 1. This newsletter is for informational purposes only. I am not a registered investment advisor and I am not responsible for any actions taken by subscribers.
I do appreciate your posts, Paul L
Big Al
Hi Al,
This was a weekend report to my liking.
Rick Rule, a real friend for 25 y’s, John Embry since New Orleans 1999. Both, even if not exactly on the same page, somewhat similar to my philosphy. PM’s have suffered by QE – and as the new digital currency exponential explosion has created bubbles anew in both the bond and stock markets, and maybe even in the RE-markets – it may even go to infinity. Though, in the end means infinity can’t be upheld forever outside of Paradise … and then there was Eve, the apple tree and the snake.
Meanwhile, there are banks to big to bail … to fail and lastly to jail, vs . the people, tax payers, pensioners, savers and prisoners of their (FDIC- in or a-ssured) bank accounts, popping. Cyprus is just a warning – a trial run – and even if it went OK so far – I’d think it opened a very dangerous void for the future of the current monetary system. A system, which by any historical standards is doomed and will be replaced by a new system, based on some reality … until that too will vaporize…
PS: Guess John Wheeler is the guy I’ve spent some time in his place on Green Lake, a few km’s north of Whistler and skied Blackdome. If yes, I owe him my best champagne powder downhill ever – Cheers!
Florian RR
Afternoon frr,
I feel privileged to call these three guys good friends!
Thanks for the comment,
Big Al
I just spoke with a cousin who is in banking in London. He said that on Thursday last they were begining to see significant transfers coming out of Spain.
(Nothing yet out of Italy of note)
However, I would point out that there are more British in Spain than Italy. I have to believe damage done to greyhairs in Cyprus is being talked about in Spain.
Thanks for this insight cfs,
Big Al
Wow, your post makes mine look feleeb. More power to you!
Jeff and Al.
Riveting set of discussions, thankyou. You’re so right that without the internet those of us who are but feeble amateurs, more so perhaps here in the U.K would simply be left floundering on the lies and misinformation fed to us by the natioanl media.
So, apart from THE great gift of Easter, I find it exhilarating to mix with guys who place integrity above all else, and whose collective wisdom can allow one to take evasive action against all the current treachery.
Thankyou again.,
Andrew
God bless and a joyous Easter to you Andrew!
Big Al
Andrew….Where are you in the UK ?…..I need some help
Thkining like that shows an expert’s touch
A good % of the “paper” market in precious metals futures ETFs is nothing more than make-believe. If you read their disclosures, with few exceptions, they claim they can pay you off in money, not bullion! They are not only selling what they don’t have, they’re paying you off with something other than what you bought. Seems like a double frad to me.
…So if JP Morgan needs money to cover their naked shorts or ETF shorts, all they have to do is go to the window and borrow from the FED at near 0% interest to pay off the retail market. It’s amazing how our government not only allows to fraud, but protects it.
Also note that when we see huge market swings in the broader stock market indices, one has to wonder if the Plunge Protection Team isn’t buying up index ETFs to float the market past a sell off. Bernanke restored liquidity to the markets when he should’ve focused on restoring integrity.
BJ….& that is what i have been trying to get across to people for the past few years
I think you’ve just captured the answer peflrctey
BJ,
Think about it for a minute. Why would you expect payment from an ETF in gold?
In oder to minimize trading costs the ETF deal in 100oz bars or paper. How practically would you honestly expect to be paid in parts of a gold bar? Should they file it down and send you the shavings? If so how would you test the purity?
Should they make medalions? If so would you be happy with the cost involved? I don’t think so.
I think the point here, gentlemen, is buy physical and not paper!
Big Al
Exactly. Silver rounds probably will be the most negotiable within an economy when paper money fails. Gold a good second for larger purchases.
And that,BJ, is exactly why we hold rounds!
Big Al
AL……Double bingo…….
My only thought this weekend is this: If Cyprus was not a catalyst for a rise in pm prices…..What is?
Help me here people.
Bobby……. MANIPULATION………The bankers are scared S£$£less by gold, gold to a banker , is like KRIPTONITE to Superman…….sorry spelling of krip. may be wrong
Bobby;
The move might be subtle, subdued .. better than the “moon shots” wished for by those who are in PMs for the wrong reason.
I heard Michael Levy in an interview this morning say that gold sales at his store are brisk.
Personal anecdote; until now, all my bullion purchases have been through CEF – Central Fund of Canada.
This week I made my first purchase of bullion for delivery.
I think Cyprus was a good wake-up call for the complacent.
Yes it was an effective wake-up call Irwin!
Big Al
Two questions for the gold punters out there: One, if all the fiat currencies are spiraling downwards has the price of gold gone up are down in real terms.
Secondly China holds the keys to the Gold Kingdom, if China is accumulating can they along with a number of other BRIIC nation’s keep the price of gold suppressed until they have acquired their quota which may last 6 months or longer. It seems to me they can as long as The Fed keeps interest rates contained. DT
I would comment that at this moment in time the value of the U.S. dollar is not spiraling downward.
The question is, will it in the future?
Big Al
It’s not spiraling in terms of other currencies, but it will continue to lose purchasing power. It’s worth noting that the usdx is currently trading at the lows of 1990 while nothing in the real economy is doing the same (when priced in dollars). Diesel would be 88 cents; copper would be $1; wheat would be $250 (not $700). Cars, houses, healthcare, and tuition would all be much cheaper if the usdx meant anything at all.
Gold has more than tripled versus the CRB since 2005. The biggest gains came very quickly in 2008. Everything collapsed in terms of gold – even platinum and silver. On average, commodities would have to triple versus gold just to reach their 1988 levels. Stocks are currently at 1989 levels vs. gold. The 30 year treasury bond has shed 75% of its gold value since 2001, and currently trades at 1981 levels. Real estate has suffered similar declines since it owes its pricing to the debt markets.
However, very long term, most goods and services are within their average (gold) range. So far, only the excesses of the late ’90s and early 2000s have been corrected. The “overshoot” is still ahead. In real terms, the gold bull market DID NOT begin in 2001, the USD bear market did. The REAL gold bull is very young.
I have to say that your expanded coverage with one or two guests going over four segments is really great! There is much more content and depth in the broadcast and I also appreciate the age demographics between Al and Jeff, so we also get another investing perspective that way. Thanks!
That was the plan, Mr. Wetmore!
Big Al
DT, you only seem to think short term, while many of us are thinking much longer.
I, for one, have previously said I hope I never sell my PMs, but rather my heirs many decades from now.
In the meantime, if something does go wrong with the dollar, I cannot think of a better long-term store of wealth. Although I do buy art, antiques, etc.
(And I do have several months of food supply in my kitchens.)
Don’t kid yourself I own CDN art, and some of it is war art from WWII, I have everything you mentioned and possibly more. DT
Do not, I repeat, do not forget to have several months of good red wine in your possession!
Big Al
Also I always make sure I have 4 new pairs of quality waterproof leather walking shoes just in case. DT
The paragon of unatdsernding these issues is right here!
How about being part owner of a California winery? That do?
DEFINITELY!
Big Al
Big Al, Try googling my last name winery
Yeah Al, could you please give the guy some recognition. DT
Al….You forgot the golf balls……haha
Traderrog: Watch for our new essay on Monday “Funny money ricochets world- wide. this covers our logic as to why Q4 is the game changer. Traderrog
http://www.wavelengthpublishing.com
Looking forward to it TR.
to be the man behind the first Earth Day in the 70 s. I used to love to stir the shit with my floelw teachers who were over zealous with this bunk. Their facial expressions were priceless when I told them about it.
Al,
just some advice from a novice.
When you have guests as powerful and influential.
Let them do most of the talking.
Secondly,
If we think our government is manipulating via Federal Reserve, etc.
why can’t we get our congressmen to open up the cookie jar and smoke them out? Or surely there has been some defection within the Fed where a person would want to tell the truth of what is happening.
comments?
I will chat with Jeff,
Big Al
http://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/you-cant-be-serious
Mauldin on Cyprus
[…] Listen to the show HERE! […]
I was listening to section 5 and a question occurred to me….what about profitable producing junior mines that have a high share count? I like Metanor resources ( mto.v) and nwm.v which have 237 million and 500 million shares o/s at a price of .19 and .025 respectively; both have smart management and nwm.v has plans to go from producing 20k oz to 80k oz. within 3-4 yrs…mto.v is producing 3k oz au /mth with plans to go to 60k/yr. ….these look like future 10+ baggers to me with the exception of share volume….all input is welcome
AS for Metanor, it’s management is not confident of success:
http://insidertracking.com/node/7?menu_tickersearch=MTO*CA%20||%20Metanor%20Resources
I hope this posts in shape. Metanor financials:
Balance Sheet for Metanor Resources Inc. (MTO:CA)
$ 0.185 -0.005 (-2.63%) Volume: 92.37 k 3:59 PM EDT Mar 28, 2013
Statement: View:
Assets [+] in Thousands of Dollars
06/2012 06/2011 06/2010 06/2009 06/2008
Cash and Equivalents 1,136 2,650 974 – –
Restrictable Cash – – – – –
Marketable Securities – 10,692 5 – –
Receivables 5,185 1,887 2,970 2,862 4,053
Inventories – – – – 815
Prepaid Expenses 310 289 436 201 142
Current Deferred Income Taxes – – – – –
Other Current Assets 18 44 – 3,755 –
Total Current Assets 6,649 15,563 4,385 6,818 5,010
Gross Fixed Assets 107,814 78,518 62,158 48,237 41,270
Accumulated Depreciation (6,038) (5,480) (3,734) (1,808) (328)
Net Fixed Assets 101,776 73,038 58,424 46,429 40,942
Intangibles – – – – –
Cost in Excess – – – – –
Non-Current Deferred Income Taxes – – – – –
Other Non-Current Assets 592 625 1,209 6,996 3,135
Total Non-Current Assets 102,368 73,663 59,634 53,426 44,077
Total Assets 109,017 89,226 64,018 60,244 49,087
Liabilities [+] in Thousands of Dollars
06/2012 06/2011 06/2010 06/2009 06/2008
Accounts Payable 7,392 3,440 4,674 4,135 5,054
Short Term Debt 3,443 145 5,626 180 212
Notes Payable – – – – –
Accrued Expenses 3,600 – – – –
Accrued Liabilities 3,600 3,600 – – –
Deferred Revenues – – – – –
Current Deferred Income Taxes – – – – –
Other Current Liabilities – 509 – – 44
Total Current Liabilities 14,435 7,693 10,299 4,315 5,310
Long Term Debt 3,357 270 205 6,295 2,722
Deferred Income Tax 19,515 – – – –
Other Non-Current Liabilities 23,242 16,971 2,387 2,132 1,735
Minority Interest – – – – –
Capital Lease Obligations – – – – 255
Preferred Securities of Subsidiary Trust – – – – –
Preferred Equity Outside Shareholders’ Equity – – – – –
Total Non-Current Liabilities 26,599 17,240 2,592 8,427 4,712
Total Liabilities 41,034 24,934 12,892 12,743 10,023
Preferred Shareholder’s Equity – – – – –
Common Shareholder’s Equity 67,983 64,292 51,127 47,501 39,065
Total Equity 67,983 64,292 51,127 47,501 39,065
Total Liabilities & Shareholder’s Equity 109,017 89,226 64,018 60,244 49,087
Darn it. The table collapsed in on itself.
I posted the last five years of data.
Was showing burn rate of about $7 million
last year.
It has no current analyst following since 2009
I don’t want to give any recommendation pro or con, I don’t see anything extraordinary except somewhat negative insider action.
Many thanks
Big Al
With regard to NWM I will point where to look to make your own judgement.
Look at their drill results and ask youself if those typical consentrations under 1 g/t are likely to be very profitable. Look at financings which have been occuring very regularly and think about them. http://www.nwmcorp.ca
points well made thank you….in mto, I was mostly impressed by their huge undrilled anomaly of between 1-12km long backing their producing mine at 7+ gpt and $466/oz supposed cash costs!? with nwm, their p/e is between 3-5 ??? Thanks for your input
As much as I hate to say it, Pastor Lindsay Williams and Gerald Celente have so far been proven correct. If the remainder comes true, I can only hope His return is what is imminent. Happy Resurrection Day Everyone.
Amen Bobby….AMEN….my friend……..
I adore the smile on your face when your Chicago dog is in your lap!!! So cute! And yes, please incdule Craig. I think he should have an entire cake tutorial vlog!!!
Time to resurrect the markets.
Funny how they time it like that.
That’s really shwdre! Good to see the logic set out so well.
I’ve been sharing all your weekend shows on my Facebook in hopes to spread awareness. I liked this one lot. I do hope that we grow out of this mess, but I agree our foundation has been comprised. I wish for nothing but the best for all of our friends, families, an portfolios. I am humbled just to have such a great resource for reflection and growth. Maybe one of these days you could do a bit directed toward the next generation. 😉 I wish you all a great holiday! I’m playing in a 15 million dollar tournament next Saturday. Oh the possibilities with that kind of dry powder. Great show as always Al! $Jonny$
After hearing seagent 8, makes me think of a joke, a story of three bulls in a bull pin after hearing their owners buying a new bull, they started to say among themselves how rough a time this new bull would have when it got there and how they where to treat it, and not share any of their cows and the like, until it finally arrived. Now it finally, the air brakes shot off from the big rigg, then it got out of the truck, it didn`t have to look through the boards to see the cows, it stood high enough to see over the fence, and it strutted and plowed the ground with its hoofs and bellowed. Well then the two of the bulls, these were the most out spoken of the three, they started to recount what they said about not sharing the cows with the new bull, and how they might really welcome the new bull and all. Then the third bull the one who only had maybe one cow and that was iffy, broke out of the stalls and began to strutt and plow the ground, the other meaner bulls said, hey what are you doing, are you crazy or what that new bull will kill you. Then the third bull said it wanted to show that it was a bull too. ……Hillary Clinton will not live down what happened in Libya, her glib tongue about what happen there will live on about that tragedy there, with the killing of 4 Americans and the DO NOTHING Obama-ites with her in the lead with Obama her boss. Did you read the email that I sent to you Al ? On the past friends list of murdered people who knew too much, and just got in the way. ……As with the truth who knows, but where there is smoke, there is fire. And in all things just `follow the money` seems to work. I think Rand Paul has got people worried, and he`s a powerful contender. He`s got a fighting chance to win, and he`s got the balls to stand up for whats right and good in America.
As to the metal come back, well its those ETF`s, I feel is what`s shorting the price of the metals—–from copper to gold, its those nasty pieces of paper invented by the Banksters to keep down the true price in this commodity market, thus causing the price of these commodies to drop so precipitously to cause mining to come to a stand still. The true cost of chemicals(eg. NaOH, acids, other precipitates) to do the primary mining/refining of these metals aren`t affected, unless there are more paper backed ETF`s to balance back against on these currently higher than usual chemicals. Hence is there a level playing field for this brand of inflation on everything else but copper, silver, gold, Pt-group metals, due to ETF`s influnce on the current market price ? No, but if your a hedge fund manager, a banker, its OK. Its part of the game. Having a think tank like a Rupper Murdock has, must be good in the end, after all where else would come all the insights on what is going on in the future.
Rand Paul, NO WAY! I voted twice for Ron Paul and Rand can’t hold his jock strap! As a voting republican I would vote for Chris Christy or Jeb Bush first. Living in Florida
I voted and like Jeb! Never voted for his crazy brother ! Rand is almost as bad as Paul Ryan (IMO)!
Jeb is no republican. He’s a neocon like all republicrats these days. There’s socialist party D and socialist party R. The welfare/warfare machine runs on the people’s insane belief that the two parties differ in meaningful ways.
Its amazing that you voted for Ron Paul….twice. The GOP/RNC hate Ron Paul. I was even tempted to vote for Ron Paul myself, but didn`t, but voted for Romney. Besides Ron PauL wasn`t on my states ballot, and thought that Ron Paul didn`t have a chance to win. And we needed a capitalist in the White House instead of a communist. Plus there`s enough evidence that Obama cheated in the general election in voter fraud. Voting machines that when pushed registered a win for Romney instead came up an Obama win in many states, that had there been some opposition namely from the GOP/RNC the fraud would have brought the FBI in to the situation( http://seeker401.wordpress.com/2012/11/30/fbi-may-impound-pro-obama-voting-machines/ ). Yet Romney threw in the defeat without any challenge to the contrary. Perhaps the powers that be wanted an Obama win. …..And as Matthew below has stated that the neocon`s of people like Sen. John McCain, who`s a Replublican has an agenda that mirror`s Obama`s – a fascist, socialist welfare/industrial warfare statism, heavily into the central banking sector that they are glad to bend over for, and are all too happy to `do` the American people likewise. These so-called two separate parties have come full circle into one all powerful beast ruled by these neocons whose masters are the Banksters themselves. We have an out of control group on power hungry as$holes called the Democrat/Republican but are neither, ie. in what their party`s name used to stand for, instead they are jointly of plutoracy of the ultra-rich, the trillionaires.
I listened to the whole show Al, and I still can`t believe you tow the line of “living beyond our means” and “social programs are the problem”.
The Fed is buying $85 billions of month of worthless securities from there bankrupt friends and not a word about it. Do you or any of your guess care about your children and grandchildren?
Tell the truth. This government is bankrupting the nation in favor of some very powerful people not intending on having you or me around to protest.
George Carlin – It’s a big club and you ain’t in it
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i5dBZDSSky0
I hope Embry and Rule are right, and I believe they will be.
Big Al, here is my biggest concern: How is it going to be possible to circumvent a grab from the US government from taking IRAs and 401Ks, because, since that is where the money is, that is what I believe they will take, when they run out of other resources.
Any ideas?