Weekend Show – Sat 4 May, 2013

Markets and Obamacare

Hour 1: 

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Hour 2: 

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Hour 1 : The first hour is devoted exclusively to the markets.

Hour 2 : During the second hour we spend a bit of time on Obamacare as it remains a very confusing issue that as Nancy Pelosi said, “now we have to see just what’s in this huge document.

  • Segment 5 to Segment 7 – Jeff and Big Al discuss Obamacare with James Farley. James is a veteran of the health care industry and is currently the COO of a large provider.
  • Segment 8 – Big Al and Jeff discuss commodity investing with Marshall Berol who is the co-founder of The Encompass Fund.

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Al KorelinJeff DeistMike NiehuserWendell ZerbRick AckermanMarshall Berol
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  1. On May 4, 2013 at 1:55 am,
    Andrew de Berry (Rev) says:

    ‘Gold is probably the nearest thing you come to truth in the physical world’!

    Mike Niehuser’s quote should be the Korelin motto!

    • On May 4, 2013 at 8:34 am,
      Big Al says:

      Mike is a good guy who is pretty intuitive.

      Big Al

  2. On May 4, 2013 at 4:06 am,
    Bird Man says:

    When gold rises, silver rises as a general rule too.

    Or perhaps it is the other way around? Silver leads at times and gold follows. Whichever of the two it is that leads we can probably all agree on one point, silver has a tendency to magnify the moves in gold and it does so with greater volatility.

    But what about when silver falls? Does gold also mirror the trend?

    I therefore look to silver to get a true picture of what might be happening with gold because in the end they do tend to move in tandem with one another even when timing is not perfect between the rises and falls. We have now seen the better part of a 50% decline for the poor mans metal. We must ask then what lies ahead for gold.

    So it is with that in mind I will pose a question for your guests, Al.

    When we look at a multi year silver chart (example provided below) we can see a very clear parabolic move that has already taken place in conjunction with a near approximation of a double top.


    If silver has already gone parabolic off a fifth wave move (it looks very obvious to me) then we need to ask ourselves seriously why (or how) it might stage a second such event in the near future. Please look at the chart for yourself and try to come to your own conclusions.

    Naturally I have to wonder, if the past move in silver has completed its major move to the 50 dollar range does that not suggest gold’s less obvious rise might not be telling us that the bull market has ended with or without the broad participation of the buying public. It is a fallacy in any event that in order for a commodity or share issue to stage a parabolic move that everyone and his cat needs to be involved.

    That is a popular misconception but one that gets repeated over and over again. Did the whole world buy AAPL before it dropped off its highs? Of course not. If participation rates amongst the general public are declining meanwhile then how does that portend for precious metals as a viable asset class to protect against the ravages of inflation when little significant inflation even exists.

    Back to the question…..if gold and silver are on a similar tracks and if silver has already seen its best days then should that not be warning us that gold will also decline in relative proportion before this correction is said and done?

    I submit that there are darker days ahead for everyone’s favorite golden metal.

    It must align with what we have seen for silver before it reaches a true bottom, wherever that might be. Silver itself meanwhile looks headed for sub 20 dollar status and that is how I will position my own bets with consideration to shorting at each good opportunity.

    I realize this is going to be at odds with the popular notions of what metals should be doing but that does not deter me from pointing out the obvious. Silver went parabolic already. It looks done for this cycle. I do not see any hope of it staging a massive rally anytime soon on that basis nor can it in practice as there is no precedent for that to happen before it first completes it down cycle.

    • On May 4, 2013 at 5:31 am,
      MNH says:

      ….but what if Silver hasn’t yet seen its best days Bird Man??

      …and if there are darker days ahead for everyone’s favorite goden metal, what does that say for the days ahead for that $20 spot in your wallet??

      • On May 4, 2013 at 8:44 am,
        Big Al says:

        As you will see later MNH that is part of my point.

        Big Al

        • On May 4, 2013 at 10:44 am,
          Dai Uy says:


          Was able to pick up some PM’s last week and yesterday. Premiums over spot were higher but still reasonable.

          I view anything under 12-24 months short term.

          Several questions that I’d like to have you submit to your future guests:

          1) Views on whether there might be an attempt to devaluate/ confiscate AU ala FDR in 1933 as the market continues to get tighter as purchasers probably won’t be selling the physical any time soon.

          2) Chances that physical AG, given above ground shortages as well as small annual production might be declared a National Strategic metal with the same possibilities as in no. 1 above?

          3) Chances that a new physical market asside from Comex or the paper PM’s may eventually emerge?

          Perhaps I’m paronoid but as they say, there may be a basis in reality for the same………….

          • On May 4, 2013 at 12:59 pm,
            Marc says:

            I dont think you are paranoid at all. Great questions that need to be addressed.

    • On May 4, 2013 at 6:10 am,
      Simon says:

      “the ravages of inflation when little significant inflation even exists. ”

      That depends on how one interprets the definition of inflation.

      Inflation – The expansion of money supply.

      Deflation – The contraction of money supply.

      Have we witnessed expansion, or contraction?

      The answer is obvious.

      So much so, that its ending is dire.

      While global central banks proclaim Stability as their mandate via verbal diarrhea; Jawbone; their Actions are of destruction. Knowingly; Willingly and Intentionally in support of their CONstituents, the bankers; politicians, while Main St. suffers and subsidizes their grand theft.

      Asset price movements, as well as prices are merely symptoms, the bi-product and not the inflation/deflation itself.

      While the velocity of money has remained contained due to its flow primarily to the large money center banks and financial institutions in effort to remain solvent (which they are not), as well as to pour into equities markets to keep them afloat and generate substantial fees/commissions within the bankster community, such money/debt has not made its way down to Main St.

      Thus, while velocity of money remains contained (for now), we are witnessing global hyper-monetary creation (inflation).

      If one is a subscriber to the reported CPI as its inflation barometer, they are in for a rude awakening.

      Ultimately, this all ends very; very badly with grave consequences.

      We continue to witness the greatest CONfiscation/Transfer of wealth from the hands of the citizenry to those of Criminals within the banking/political bodies.

      • On May 4, 2013 at 6:14 am,
        Simon says:

        FWIW – Spent over 20+ -yrs within that community (Financial), thus, have a pretty good grasp on how the game is played, as well as its characters. Not to mention the rampant; pervasive Fraud & Corruption.

        Enjoy the weekend all~

        • On May 4, 2013 at 9:01 am,
          Big Al says:

          Really appreciate your input. Folks like you are the reason this is such a great a great site!

          Big Al

      • On May 4, 2013 at 6:28 am,
        richard says:

        Simon, nice post. You’re correct in that we have monetary base inflation that as yet has not been transformed to main street in a general price increase of products/services as seen in the drop in velocity of money (M2). Capital has once again chased yield and the current beneficiary of that capital is the conventional markets and the bond market. Eventually, like the housing market, the dotcom bubble and other bubbles; this too will pass. All I know in circumstances like this is that the best spot to be is in precious metals for the long term. I personally believe that we’re probably in the midst of the greatest bull market for gold that will ever be recorded in history. The question that has to be asked is when will the money printing by the whole globe end and ultimately be reversed. I believe I personally won’t live long enough to see that happen. We’ve seen the longest period of decreasing bond rates and “disinflation” ever recorded—we have yet to see the beginnings of the next general price inflation and increasing bond yields era—-that can only result in ever higher PM prices.

        • On May 4, 2013 at 7:35 am,
          Simon says:

          I concur. We remain in a Super Cycle Secular bull trend in the metals. While meaningful technical damage has been inflicted and will take some time to repair/heal, the recent action (slippage) will mirror that of a blip on the radar/charts when peering through the rear-view mirror down the road.

          As for, “when will the money printing by the whole globe end and ultimately be reversed?”

          Fantastic question that eludes all. However, if I were to venture, I believe that it will be forced upon them (both fiscal and monetary policymakers), reluctantly, via the markets themselves as they (policymakers) show no willingness to abort their destructive machinations.

          What could possibly light the wick?

          * Quad + global notional OTC derivatives apocalypse.

          * Global Bond market implosion

          * Global currency crisis/wars (on going at present front-and-center)

          And or, Defaults (forced of course).

          With respect to “reversed/unwind” – The problem (Debt/Derivatives) is so large and systemic that one could not possibly wrap their arms or minds around. From a mathematical perspective, it s repair/cleansing/unwinding is virtually impossible.

          • On May 4, 2013 at 9:11 am,
            Big Al says:

            Two comments.

            Regarding war: Israel has begun to jump on Syria. We ain’t seen nothing yet!

            Regarding economic issues (bonds, money printing,etc): Mr Market ALWAYS WINS!

            Big Al

          • On May 4, 2013 at 10:46 am,
            Marc says:

            Simon and Doc,
            Excellent exchange of ideas and concepts. And, IMHO….SPOT ON!

        • On May 4, 2013 at 8:46 am,
          Dick Tracy says:

          We really won’t have a clear view of what will happen in regards to hyperinflation or deflation until the interest rates start to move up that and that alone for me will be the pivot point where the crash happens.

          Bernanke is fighting deflation and losing, all the commodities these days are in a downward mode that is my indicator.

          Many investors as well as TBTF are reeling from the effects of 2008. So much capital was wiped out when the housing market went bust that no matter how much the tarp program pumped into the system it still can’t compensate for the excesses of the last 10 years. We no longer see food line ups the government has replaced them with fast food stamps and more dependancy than you can imagine.

          When the bond market fails an enormous amount of money will disappear overnight and if The Fed has shown us anything it is that they can print away but they can’t control where that money goes hence the many bubbles. If they were in charge we wouldn’t have zero rates and endless QE. Deflation is baked in the cake and history should be your guide just study the roaring twenties which came to an end with contraction. DT

          • On May 4, 2013 at 9:13 am,
            Big Al says:

            Good points Machine Gun!

            Big Al

          • On May 4, 2013 at 9:37 am,
            Simon says:

            The Fed, as well as global CB’s are synonymous with Inflation. They are one in the same.

            While we may have witnessed Asset price declines, that is merely a Symptom, unlike the Cause.

            Thus, have we witnessed 100 yrs of deflation as the $USD has lost 97% of its PP (Purchasing Power) since the Fed’s inception?

            Deflation is the Tool (scare tactic) or better yet, the excuse used for both fiscal and monetary policymakers to rape & pillage your purchasing power and ultimately, your standard of living.

            Do not fall prey, or, better yet, protect yourself against such.

          • On May 4, 2013 at 4:28 pm,
            Dick Tracy says:

            Marc, you really now how to play the game, but really is it always like that, I’m betting yes! DT

        • On May 4, 2013 at 9:06 am,
          Big Al says:

          Great post, Doc!

          Big Al

          • On May 4, 2013 at 10:50 am,
            Marc says:

            You are right up there with Matthew in terms of NAILING IT! IMHO, :)….. anybody who doesnt heed your very astute comments and observations will “pay” for it literally and figuratively. YIKES…..now…I have to go a cultivate my new (big) garden in the back and start looking at where am I going to put fruit trees and the CHICKEN COOP!! HA!!…..I am serious…maybe some GOATS too! BAAAHHH. Dead serious. 🙂

      • On May 5, 2013 at 7:49 am,
        clay says:

        Simon: Alasdair Macleod just today wrote about your subject.


        Alasdair has been explaining that inflation and hyperinflation are really two entirely different phenomena. Inflation represents the standard model of money velocity, but hyperinflation represents a loss of confidence in currency. When people fear their bank accounts or retirement accounts might be confiscated they will cash out of the banks and accounts. Governments who might instigate such confiscation will generally impose severe capital controls in advance to prevent people in escaping the system. Restrictions on ownership of foreign bank and brookerage accounts, restrictions on transferring currency or money to other nations. These and other laws come with severe penalties should a person not follow or report. FACTA was initiated in 2003 for these purposes and expanded upon by the shadow government as they saw fit.

        So long as people in the US see their wealth in how many Dollars their accounts are worth, this “New Normal” will continue. But in order for the powers that be to maintain it they will have to impose greater and greater rules and restrictions with what people can do with non US investments. Ironically it is a paradox that they have, because in order to maintain this control they cause increasing Geo-political risk for other nations and people to hold dollars in reserve. The New Normal imposes control at home, but disintegrates control abroad which leads to complete loss of the US Dollar as Reserve World Currency.

        What I am finding intriguing and more common than not, is just how many people are beginning to see the same economic understanding without reading or listening to others. If it walks like a duck, looks like a duck and quacks like a duck, then whoever sees it from any view are likely to describe the same thing, a duck.

        • On May 5, 2013 at 9:49 am,
          Marc says:

          Excellent missive!

    • On May 4, 2013 at 6:54 am,
      John W. Robertson says:

      Hi Bird,

      I was just looking at metals prices of all sorts (precious, minor, industrial), and was thinking about the same thing. Regarding a couple of your sentences:

      “…silver has a tendency to magnify the moves in gold and it does so with greater volatility. ”


      “…I therefore look to silver to get a true picture of what might be happening with gold because in the end they do tend to move in tandem with one another even when timing is not perfect between the rises and falls.”

      Silver is higher beta, and of course has an industrial component. As a result, I would not necessarily reach the same conclusion as you second statement. Although it’s drop COULD be leading gold, it could also simply be you’re seeing it’s larger “ringing” or drop off it’s top, just because it does swing looser, or has different demand characteristics. Once a full-swing currency collapse happens, gold and silver certainly do seem to couple more solidly.

      I would like to have posted historical silver and gold charts for the last 20 years, but this is interesting to…the gold-silver ratio since 1990. It’s been in a long-term downtrend, but it might have reversed in 2011:


    • On May 4, 2013 at 8:42 am,
      Big Al says:

      Morning Bird Man,

      More than happy to give my opinion. Please remember it is only one man’opinion.

      Look for an editorial on this shortly.

      Big Al

  3. On May 4, 2013 at 5:26 am,
    Andrew de Berry (Rev) says:

    Bird Man,

    Thankyou again, but I refer you back to what I wrote in response to your similar piece under the Gary Savage segment. Bless you but now you are taxing my mind with yet further charts, which like others fail to convince me one way or the other. Mike Niehuser’s quote as given above surely has a bearing on what Jesus promised:
    ‘You shall know the truth and the truth shall set you free’!

    Best wishes, Andrew

    • On May 4, 2013 at 5:45 am,
      Bird Man says:

      No problem Reverend. I was expecting a negative reaction to my posts. I worry when I hear others falling into group think because that is almost never rewarding nor does it reveal the truths we need to be aware of. I am listening and reading the daily comments and coming to different conclusions about the future. The fundamentals just have not worked according to theory. I don’t know if it is manipulation or not but I am certain governments and Central Banks want gold dead. The charts warn me disappointment lies ahead. That tells me to look elsewhere for answers. I am not in this to lose money that is for sure and it does not pay any of us to be blind to the obvious…..no matter how taxing it may be.

      • On May 4, 2013 at 9:16 am,
        Big Al says:

        Group think is terrifying, Bird Man!

        Big Al

        • On May 4, 2013 at 4:01 pm,
          Mike says:

          If you really believe that group think is terrifying why is is that the only people you interview on your program are ‘gold bugs.’ Also, all of the ‘favorite sites’ are sites that are related to promoting gold and silver. You never interview anyone with a view contrary to this and you charge $1500.00/month for each company that has a banner of your site.
          It seems that you actually like group think and you’re also making a very healthy living off of it. By my count, you’re grossing, at a minimum, $30,000 per month just from the companies that advertise on your site, and it could very well be more.

          • On May 5, 2013 at 3:29 pm,
            JERRY..the LONG................O^OTB says:

            THAT IS A FAIR WAGE,,….besides his rent is high,and has lots of travel expenses……and that amount of money is not big money for a small business……..PLUS…. AL, has a large entertaining expenses,,,,,especially, when he takes out guest speakers,which do not receive any compensation for appearance….and then we have Irish Tony’s expenses for tunneling……..

          • On May 6, 2013 at 4:46 pm,
            AlKorelink says:

            Look for Daily lEditorial on this onTuesday.

            Truzt me, my friend, you are a little high on your number.

            Big Al

    • On May 4, 2013 at 9:15 am,
      Big Al says:

      Amen Reverend,

      That is what keeps me sane!

      God bless,

      Big Al

      • On May 4, 2013 at 11:21 am,
        Dai Uy says:


        You sure that the jury isn’t still out on that question? BTW, will be on the island W,T,F to take in the Meerkerk Rhody Gardens in full bloom and the SAM art exhibit………..

  4. On May 4, 2013 at 5:50 am,
    James (the lesser) says:

    I have been saying for a year now we have seen the parabolic blow offs in both gold and silver. This turned out to be true.
    Bird Man – I seem to recall you said gold was going to get smoked this week. It came into the week around $1470 came out the same way.

    • On May 4, 2013 at 6:10 am,
      Bird Man says:

      That was a 35 dollar decline on May 1st! It was a fantastic trade. What more did you need?

      • On May 4, 2013 at 9:49 am,
        Andrew de Berry (Rev) says:

        I reckon in the James versus Birdman’s forecasts for this past week James cames out ahead! I’m not sure of all the US vernacular, but when someone says something or someone will get smoked I equate that to termination!! So James’ forecast, I believe of $1500 wasn’t that far off!!

        Best to both of you, Andrew

        • On May 4, 2013 at 10:46 am,
          Bird Man says:

          Maybe the word “smoked” does not translate the same everywhere, Andrew. I was banking on a one day tradable decline and got much more than I hoped for so I came away happy. I just assume you guys all play the trade in both directions too but maybe I am mistaken there.

  5. On May 4, 2013 at 5:54 am,
    James (the lesser) says:

    I’ve said this several times now, I am not concerned whether we have seen the bottom in gold, that remains to be seen. What I am more concerned with and have asked, and no one has yet to step up to the plate and answer is, what is going to get gold back up to the $1800, $1900 levels again. I see nothing at all on the horizon that will do that

  6. On May 4, 2013 at 6:03 am,
    James (the lesser) says:

    Al with all due respect and I really hope your right but how can you say you called the bottom after only two weeks of just seeing the bottom. Come on Al, in this environment anything can happen. Take RA for example , he called for gold to go down to $1450, he finally got it right, only took it a lot lot longer to do it. Forget about the bottom, what is going to get it to the top again. So far this is a classic bear market slop of hope. Friday it took out $1480, was ready to keep going and then gave it all back after the good job report. The rise from $1320 to $1470 was good but now it is clearly sputtering out.

    • On May 4, 2013 at 9:22 am,
      Big Al says:

      Morning The Greater,

      All I have said is that I do not pretend to be the prettiest baby in the nursery and that so far, and only so far, it has proven to be a good call.

      Please remember that my rational was based on personal feelings based on fundamentals as I see them and input from our guests who are certainly smarter than I could ever hope to be!

      Big Al

      • On May 4, 2013 at 3:55 pm,
        Mike says:

        I agree with James. You should go back an listen to how many times you’ve said “we picked the bottom in gold.” It’s getting really tired.

        • On May 5, 2013 at 1:37 am,
          Andrew de Berry (Rev) says:

          Yes but Mike I’ve also heard Al repeat he’s not the prettiest baby in the nursery. I bet his mother never tired of saying it!!

          Maybe we all need to lighten up a bit.

  7. On May 4, 2013 at 6:09 am,
    richard says:

    Birdman, now here’s another thought for you since you brought on multi year charts for silver and the fact that it has double topped. Why not take your multi-year charts and go out further then you can imagine—1344 AD. If you look at that chart we could be fashioning a massive inverse head and shoulder formation for silver—-200 years ago silver was $800+/ounce. In my view we could be embarking on coming centuries of massive price moves up for silver—-that also could be possible for other base metals, rare earth metals and other commodities. And why could that fundamentally exist?—1. The increasing difficulty and expense of exploration and production of most resources. 2. The money printing by multiple nations going forward for the foreseeable future with no end in view. 3. The emerging middle classes all over the globe and the want for “things”. I guess I envision a massive change globally for the resource sector and especially for the legitimate needs for more silver and other resources (demand) with an increasingly questionable expensive supply. For silver, we may have begun the process of a massive inverse head/shoulders on the charts and a realignment of a supply/demand structure not seen for centuries. This in all likelihood will also apply to other certain commodities. Then throw in global massive deficits, debt, and money printing and you have the “mother” of all potentials—-the opposite of that would be the “mother” of all misery.

    • On May 4, 2013 at 6:18 am,
      Bird Man says:

      Excellent points, Richard. Actually I am very bullish longer term and agree with you wholeheartedly that silver (and other metals) have an outstanding future. My comments refer more to the here and now spanning months and not decades so try to forgive my current sense of negativity. I am still waiting for what I think will be a once in a lifetime opportunity to buy back into the miners. It is coming but only God really knows when. Hopefully nobody here is too disheartened by my current prognosis. The future is very bright but I really hate losing money in the meantime.

      • On May 4, 2013 at 6:42 am,
        richard says:

        I agree entirely with you—-no one can divine the ultimate bottom in the PMs and the mining shares. I’ve been dipping my toes in the water right now for various technical reasons. If the technicals on the mining stocks turn against me I then will sell again post haste to preserve capital for the ultimate bottom. What I appreciate about the gold charts right now is the fact that we have had 2 weekly closes over the 200 week MA and if that continues the odds are we have seen the bottom. But it is also often true that in technicals when you first challenge major support you bounce only to later take that support out. As I’ve mentioned on Al’s show, there is no foreseeable sudden move down again in the near future. The longer the pricing stays above the 200 week MA the greater the odds are that we’ve seen the lows. Another reason is that the weekly momentum indicators have been in downward spiral since October, 2012. The odds of that continuing decreases with every passing week. And then when that turns, watch out since it will support a significant move higher. Also, the longer gold pricing stays above the 200 week MA moving toward the supportive fall season for PMs, the less likelihood of another significant downleg. Having said all that, you’re feeling about lower prices have as much legitimacy and credence as Al’s BOTTOM.

      • On May 4, 2013 at 9:29 am,
        Big Al says:

        Actually, Bird Man, your comments are far from disheartening they are constructively thought provoking.

        Big Al

        • On May 4, 2013 at 11:00 am,
          Bird Man says:

          Thanks Al. Good to know I am not getting on anyone’s nerves. Like quite a few others here I am anxiously waiting for a resolution one way or another. I look forward to taking a position in a few select companies that look like great candidates heading into the future. Just waiting for the shake-out to end. I am encouraged to start dipping in my toes like Richard is doing but sense a market correction is not far off and so wait on the sidelines for the smoke to clear. Guess that makes me a wallflower!

          • On May 5, 2013 at 7:27 am,
            Simon says:


    • On May 4, 2013 at 10:59 am,
      Marc says:

      Even I with my massive MACRO-FUNDAMENTAL bias, I wouldnt have dreamed of going out to 1344 AD..wow, that is impressive! Makes me even more “jacked” up regarding my thoughts on this “commodity SUPER cycle’ we are in. Peter Grandich even capitulated a little bit last week when he said that he EVENS thinks gold and silver wipe-out put a “damper” on his “mother of all GOLD bull markets” thinking mentality. I think he was just “depressed” or caught in a weak moment :)…….. I still think we are firmly in it. AND I am still firmly in yours, Matthew’s and NOW SIMONS camp. I still sleep very well at nite!!!

  8. On May 4, 2013 at 7:17 am,
    Ann says:

    Wow.All great posts,you guys never cease to amaze me. Thank-you,

    • On May 4, 2013 at 9:31 am,
      Big Al says:

      It is all about folks like yourself,Ann, and your continued input.


      Big Al

  9. On May 4, 2013 at 7:57 am,
    Irwin says:

    May 3 issue of VR Gold Letter has been posted for all to see:

    It’s the first time I’ve read a “VR” report of any kind … makes for good reading. I like that he’s able to see both possibilities ahead – up or down.

    Also; I see that Casey Research has issued their 2nd “gold insurance” alert. Apparently the first one worked out well .. the mechanics of the “insurance” trade are way outside my understanding. I’ll just sit on my a_ _ [strike] allocation and do nothing.

  10. On May 4, 2013 at 8:16 am,
    Paul L says:

    With the conventional markets breaking out that should help protect gold from sharp crashes. I invested fully in the conventional area at the 1538 s&p support line as I believed a breakout was coming soon despite so many analysts calling for a breakdown due to the May effect. Copper made a sharp upturn on Friday and the major stocks like IBM have turned around.

  11. On May 4, 2013 at 8:56 am,
    James (the lesser) says:

    I dont know Bird Man, only going by what you said, that being gold would get smoked this week. You weren’t any more specific than that. I guess after the fact you can call a specific date, but for the week in general it didn’t get smoked, it was flat…

    • On May 4, 2013 at 11:03 am,
      Bird Man says:

      I did call a date in one of my posts, James. May 1st. It was rewarding.

  12. On May 4, 2013 at 8:56 am,
    Dennis M. O'Neil says:

    I recognize my tendency to bite at a price move through a psychological level.
    I have also been a fan of the Canadian Silver Maple.
    I like trees more than misrepresentations of liberty.
    Compared to the Eagle……and beyond the beauty comparison …….unless declaring currency at a border crossing……I was always more reassured by the $5 CAD denomination as compared to the USD $1 of the Eagle. Let us hope they never trade at or below those levels.
    On April 3 a popular web-exchange offered the Maples at $29.76 any quantity. I bit and placed a modest 50 coin order.
    Although I have not tracked as close the bid price from this exchange ……which is certainly lower……. it is important today to note the ask price for the same 50 coin order is $30.17.
    That is awesome! 41 was Tom Seaver’s jersey #….. it was also my Dad’s badge number….. and I made .41 cents in relation to the ask on this trade.
    The only reason why I bring this up is to point out the bifurcation between the mainly paper spot and the physical market.
    When I see these paper spot price knock downs I visualize the old ticker tape parades. 1969 was a great year for ticker tape parades in NYC. The astronauts returned home from their journey to a studio somewhere and the Mets won the World Series. The paper from Tickers was on the wane. The long thin streamers were being displaced with typing paper and raids on TP from office building bathrooms. Whether the ticker tape parade is vintage long thin ticker streams:
    or modern day modified…… they both amount to the same thing.
    Traders atop tall buildings enjoying themselves dumping paper on the unsuspecting people below whom ironically cheer the spectacle. In the end the after a bunch of laughs and giggles the messy activity leaves a big mess to clean up.
    I think the disparity between paper spot price and the physical price is people are beginning to realize that the spot price decline is largely the result traders dumping paper out their windows. The relative stability this month in the physical market evidences the market is anticipating a big paper mess.

  13. On May 4, 2013 at 8:59 am,
    benb says:

    Norcini, agrees with Doc I think. He says to expect “range” trading until $1500 gold?, until then the hedge funds wont get involved. So selling preasure increases the closer to that we get and buying increases around $1430?

    Haynes says the physical buying is real. Alot here already figured that out, but for me is another confirmation.
    I still think we are looking at a tug of war between phyz and paper, if phyz wins its going to be “to the moon” if paper wins, its languish for years.
    We shall see if the buying continues to the point of waiting for phyz for 6 months? a year? Now its only 4-6 weeks (still kid stuff)
    But no long wait in Canada yet so lots still available I would say.
    PMs are probobly an excellent thing to leave grandkids, silver being required for life as we know it etc.

    • On May 4, 2013 at 10:44 am,
      richard says:

      Benb, I went to my site to look at the price for some silver and the premiums were out of this world. I guess I’ll have to purchase some gold since the premiums appear to be more to my liking.

      • On May 4, 2013 at 11:48 am,
        benb says:

        Doc, I just checked around, Calgary is about 29 an oz if you want silver now, 28 if your willing to wait 4+ weeks.
        A dealer or 2 that I spoke with recommended I dont buy for 4-6 weeks and the backlog should be cleared up.
        I didnt think I was that big a buyer.
        But I have to say, the dealers here are complaining of a shortage now, but explaining it as the mints cant keep up to demand. As John says, thats a shortage.
        Seeing how long it takes to run out after this refill from the mint, is going to tell us somthing I think.
        And thanks for your analysis as always.

  14. On May 4, 2013 at 9:40 am,
    BJ says:

    1st hour–Superb, one of your best market discussions I’ve heard on your show.

    2nd hour–Obama Care (formally known as Hillary Care–a bad idea then and now).

    Obama reminds me of Bush bragging about home ownership being the highest ever in America (just before it all came crashing down). Now come Obama Care bragging about a doctor for everyone at all times (just before our health care system, dare I say, comes crashing down).

    Lord save me from those in government who think they know best. Just let me be; more specifically, let me be free!

  15. On May 4, 2013 at 10:12 am,
    Andrew de Berry (Rev) says:

    Ditto BJ’s comments re the weekend show.

    Also BJ the home ownership delusion stands to break open here in the UK too. Of the 3.5 million duped into taking out interest only mortgages, there are now 1m who have no fallback position to pay off the principle when it falls due. Added to which the Bank of Ireland have just DOUBLED mortgage payments for those on so-called Tracker mortgages, understood as being index-linked to interest rates….except for the tiny print that says the lender can do what he damn well pleases in the event of exceptional circumstances.

    Ref Section 3, Rick Ackerman is spot on when questioning just what the Chinese growth story is all about. Google up China’s ghost cities to understand the lunacy behind their property ‘boom’.

    Re Al’s comments ref Cyprus, Peter Schiff of Kitco writes: ‘So the fools sell on Cyprus, while the rest of us see it as the kick-off of a historic great redemptionof gold from west to east’.

  16. On May 4, 2013 at 10:29 am,
    Dennis M. O'Neil says:

    “no one can divine the ultimate bottom in the PMs and mining shares.”

    I think someone can divine the ultimate bottom in the PMs and mining shares.
    It is all about control. It is about making money in both directions.
    The controller and his associates make money on the big moves and the little moves along the way.
    We rent an apartment from a landlord.
    The whole building’s heat is controlled by a thermostat in the landlord’s apartment.
    The landlord dictates when we are hot and cold.
    He takes off and puts on his sweater accordingly after manipulating the thermostat in one direction or another.
    The unfair advantage of landlord is why the system will not be fixed as long as there is only one thermostat for the whole building.
    In a circumstance where there is no landlord controlled thermostat I would agree with the Richard’s statement.
    “No one can divine the ultimate bottom in the PMs and the mining shares.”
    That would be a good place to live! It would be nice to live with the uncertainty of a market that does not have a landlord messing with the thermostat.

  17. On May 4, 2013 at 10:57 am,
    Dennis M. O'Neil says:

    On March 10, 2012 at 8:00 am, I made the below post in response to one of Al’s guest advocating the virtues of Obamacare.
    The ultimate motive behind Obamacare was and is population control. What better way to control a population than to be in control of whether they live or die.

    Dennis M. O’Neil says:

    Prior to World War II healthcare insurance was rare.
    Because the government initiated wage controls employers were forced lure employees with fringe benefit packages in lieu of direct compensation.
    Gradually health insurance subsidized by the employer became a major bargaining chip. In 1950 GM offered to pay 50 percent of the health care costs of their employees. GM then majored in automobiles but had a significant minor the health care business. In 1961, retirees were added. and in 1964 GM began paying 100 percent of health care bills for workers and retirees. This is when on the show room floor sticker price increases were perversely rationalized away by saying that 20%….25%…..30% of the cost of the car was attributed to UAW healthcare cost. Or you were supposed to be somehow soothed by knowing your payment was more dedicated to employee healthcare than it was steel. It is not then a coincidence that the government was called on to relieve the burden.

    How could Mr. Houle point his finger at Nixon and Reagan without taking LBJ’s Medicare fiasco to task. This would be akin to blaming Nixon for abandoning the Gold Standard without placing it in the context that LBJ guns and butter programs of the sixties were rapidly emptying Fort Knox. Do you remember DeGaulle requesting his billion?

    Vietnam, Medicare and the War on Poverty compelled Nixon to do something.
    LBJ’s fiddler had to be paid.

    For decades healthcare, education and housing all increased in multiples higher than the CPI. We now see how this turned out for the housing sector. It was unsustainable. So to it will be for healthcare and education. What government subsidizes you get more of AT HIGHER COSTS. Whatever happened to house calls and the Dr.’s little black bag. Dr.’s were once paid with chickens from the coop. Now we must dedicate 17% of our economy to attempt to sustain the unsustainable.

    The problem with housing was relatively painless…..mere plunges in fair market value.
    The problem with government creating an unsustainable situation in healthcare will be bleak. It is dangerous to confuse ‘healthcare coverage’ with healthcare. Ultimately we want care not coverage. Stark healthcare rationing is the result of government’s over involvement in healthcare. It is odd that Mr. Houle sees this as a solution when it is the problem. We should not so glibly look to government for the answer. It was the unintended consequence of government wage controls which delivered us here in the first place. The healthcare crisis will be over when patients reach into their wallet to pay their Dr. instead of calling Hartford Connecticut.
    When stroke patients in their seventies are denied a neurologist there will be disbelief how we let ourselves arrived at such a place.

  18. On May 4, 2013 at 11:38 am,
    Silverbug Dave says:

    It will be interesting to see when/if the conventional stock market tops and if it takes a real crash, what will happen to gold and gold stocks, if like in 2000-2003 they take a huge rally or if they crash (again) like in 2008.
    This runaway move in the stock market on QE3 and QE4 as Gary Savage described it so well on this website a few days ago, seems to me to be like the runaway moves in gold and silver on QE1 and especially QE2.
    It may be that the markets are actually beginning to believe in QE, because the wealth effect is back on stream as the stock market has this massive rally, contrary to earlier QE where the stock market went up but gold, commodities and inflation were also up, up ,up.
    So the markets are now apparently convinced that QE will send stocks to new highs without inflation and we are back in the late 1990s again!

  19. On May 4, 2013 at 11:56 am,
    Mike says:

    If I hear you say ‘we picked the bottom in gold’ one more time, I’ll puke!

    • On May 5, 2013 at 2:12 am,
      Andrew de Berry (Rev) says:

      Oh come on Mike lighten up as I said. You try running this outfit and not repeat yourself. Besides if it’s good news as Al believes then who doesn’t repeat themselves?

  20. On May 4, 2013 at 12:39 pm,
    benb says:

    Would that be the “puke” point people talk about?

  21. On May 4, 2013 at 12:57 pm,
    Dennis M. O'Neil says:

    FYI – because it worked last year my Derby Day thoughts-
    1 Goldencents – the Southern Cal horse might not like the rain but I am sticking with it.
    2. Revolutionary – if Goldencents odds keep coming down here is where you should go
    3. Orb – the once favorite now shows odds worth the risk

    I still like the Doug O’Neill second year is a charm story- maybe he brought his lab with him. Borel and revolutionary will not be bothered by the mud.
    3-8 exacta box – money across the board on Goldencents –
    Place and show on Revolutionary.
    Chalk triple three above.

    Frac Daddy in the mix for the fun of it.

    Goldencents——–How could we not like a horse named after the precious metal?
    Another Doug O’Neill Santa Anita Derby winner…with another Santa Anita Derby winner.

    And do not forget about the monetary end game with Revolutionary…with a jockey who will most likely get the most from the horse.

    In a world of paper bugs to have Goldencents ia a Revolutionary act.
    Play the Exacta …wheel them in the triple.
    And if you want to go all in resource sector toss in 50 to 1 Frac Daddy.

    I’ll have another….
    It is always better to be the house unless you are betting with their money.

    • On May 4, 2013 at 3:12 pm,
      richard says:

      If you really cared you would pick “Golden Soul”.

      • On May 4, 2013 at 3:16 pm,
        Dennis M. O'Neil says:

        Today to care is to be once again Revolutionary.

        • On May 4, 2013 at 3:44 pm,
          richard says:

          Well, golden soul was second—-it must mean Al’s bottom is in place.

          • On May 5, 2013 at 2:43 pm,
            Dick Tracy says:

            Richard did you really mean that, Al is a businessman that keeps his real cards hidden. DT

        • On May 4, 2013 at 3:57 pm,
          Dennis M. O'Neil says:

          The classic recipe for Kentucky burgoo, a feel good stew and a second only to mint julip must have at the Derby.

          When I asked what the mystery meat mutton consisted of the owner of a comfortable restaurant informed me it is either lamb or a horse you bet on last week that had to be shot on the infield. It you cook it low and slow and stir it just right…. it does not matter what the meat you put in burgoo comes from.” Then he chuckled.

          I thought of that burgoo when I watched Goldencents fade in the mud.

          The recipe follows. I cooked it today with lamb. You need a feel good food after a race like that.

          4 pounds mystery meat mutton
          1 (3 pound) chicken
          3/4 pound cabbage, ground or chopped fine
          3/4 pound onion, ground or chopped fine
          5 pounds potatoes, peeled and diced
          2 (17 ounce) cans corn or 2 cups fresh corn
          3/4 cup ketchup
          3 (10 3/4 ounce) cans tomato puree
          Juice of 1 lemon
          3/4 cup distilled vinegar
          1/2 cup Worcestershire sauce
          2 1/2 tablespoons salt, or to taste
          2 tablespoons black pepper
          1 teaspoon cayenne pepper (more if you like)
          Boil mutton in enough water to cover. Cook until tender, 2 to 3 hours.

          Discard broth and bones. Chop meat fine. Set aside.

          Boil chicken in 2 gallons of water in a large kettle until tender. Remove chicken. Add cabbage, onion, potatoes, corn, ketchup and 1 gallon water to chicken broth. (If you are following the area cook’s, add those ingredients now.) Bring to a boil.

          Meanwhile, chop chicken meat. Discard bones and skin. When potatoes are tender, add chopped chicken, mutton, tomato puree, lemon juice, vinegar, Worcestershire sauce, salt, black pepper and cayenne pepper. Simmer for 2 hours or longer, stirring occasionally as it thickens.
          – See more at: http://www.recipegoldmine.com/ccm/moonlite-bbq-inn-burgoo.html#sthash.swZEefLB.dpuf

          • On May 4, 2013 at 4:45 pm,
            JERRY..the LONG................O^OTB says:

            4 pounds of” mystery meat”……is this the horse that came up lame………..

          • On May 4, 2013 at 5:37 pm,
            Dennis M. O'Neil says:

            When you cook low and slow you can add your neighbors cat to burgoo.
            In Kentucky it is said there are as many Burgoo Chefs and there are large pots to cook in. It is also the case it does not matter what one burgoo chef does different than another all the burgoo end up tasting just about the same. REALLY GOOD!!!!

            Kentucky Burgoo is akin to the Portuguese feijoada. They are both food of love dishes that require a nap immediately after eating an appropriate quantity

  22. On May 4, 2013 at 3:12 pm,
    JERRY..the LONG................O^OTB says:

    WELL,,,now that” the Shorts.”..have been exposed and it has been two weeks since the crash,,,,and it has been two weeks slince, I changed my moniker…..MY new moneker is..”.the LONG….,OOTB”…….THINK AHEAD………………..

    • On May 4, 2013 at 10:36 pm,
      Bird Man says:

      Hey Jerry, I came across a great article you might appreciate now that you have changed your moniker again. Maybe it is one of the more interesting pieces I have seen in awhile. It is by Charles Hugh Smith and is titled “Charting Gold”.

      Anyway, Charles gets down to doing something I have not seen before. He breaks out the types of people who populate the gold sites into a couple camps. After reading it I suddenly realized why I am in conflict with other gold people so often….not enough damn loyalty to the metal it seems!

      I guess it is true there are traders versus investors and the two come from very different schools of thought so even though we all buy there are philosophical divisions between us at times. Just thinking about that since you changed your name to “the Long” while over here I am enjoying gold too but spend more time going short. Here is the article……


      • On May 5, 2013 at 7:31 am,
        JERRY..the LONG................O^OTB says:

        BIRD MAN,….FIRST….thanks for the artical….
        The writer of the artical ,,,does not have a true view of a TRUE GOLD BUG…
        a true gold bug….does not own gold in an ETF….physical is the first thing
        that a true gold bug owns…..reason,,,,,no counter party risk….., to mix in an ETF,
        would enter the risk of loosing your ,what you think you own….,which is manipulated,by the controllers of the market planners……………..

        • On May 5, 2013 at 8:42 am,
          JERRY..the LONG................O^OTB says:

          Next…..a TRUE GOLD BUG…..does not trade his gold,,,,but, accummulates at low points,,,but, does not sell,,or trade…. THE printing of money,fiat, was established in 1913,,,,and the so called dollar has been going down ever since… Gold, is gold,and does not evaporate…..The value of the dollar or any fiat decreases with more printing or any printing that is in excess of some value,ie gold,stable value…
          in 1913 the dollar was $1….gold was $20 per oz…….Today, the so called dollar is worth about .07cents…..today gold is $1450…..WHAT DOES THAT TELL YOU….
          BIRDMAN…..thank you , very much…..hope you become a gold bug….

          • On May 5, 2013 at 8:45 am,
            JERRY..the LONG................O^OTB says:

            BIRD MAN….please read the above with all kindness in mind…and I appreciate your thoughts…………..respectfully thanks again,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,jerry ootb

          • On May 5, 2013 at 11:12 am,
            Bird Man says:

            No problems at all, Jerry.

            I really appreciate how thoughtful and intelligent most of the comments are here. Fair enough we can all talk sensibly even though we come from differing points of view. I am not an “accumulator” of physical preferring instead to make a buck whichever way it swings. Metals per se are not my passion in life. It is all about the companies that dig it out of the ground and the opportunity the great ones can offer. That is what I really love. That is why I am here.

            By the way, just listened to a short clip by Jim Rogers. He does not think we will see a bottom until later this year or next (and I concur of course). He noted that this correction is literally 12 years overdue now so it was about time one finally arrived. No blame attached or accusations of meddling by others (interview was over at Gold-Seek Radio by the way and the portion including Dr. Stephen Leeb was fantastic if you have time to hear it).

            I am still working over my thesis that Silver may have gone parabolic already and so question how it could possibly go parabolic again in a short period of time. That would be unprecedented. Pushing the date of a renewed burst of energy out by 12 to 18 months makes sense to me though. If Rogers is right then we should see a lingering consolidation for quite some time before metals renew their more serious leg up.

            Just my thoughts for the day.

      • On May 5, 2013 at 3:04 pm,
        JERRY..the LONG................O^OTB says:

        BIRD MAN…..THANKS FOR THE REPLY…….I would be very interested in your thoughts and thesis on silver………..now, silver is for trading…..along with platinum……which I like to hold and spectulate on …..So, now we can be of one mind………….ootb

  23. On May 5, 2013 at 5:44 am,
    Irwin says:

    yay-hey-hey – it’s a beautiful day!
    An accordion duet with Bob and Hector from Australia.

    • On May 5, 2013 at 7:43 am,
      Dennis M. O'Neil says:

      I agree Andrew. Good call Irwin. I note the beautiful day on which they performed was
      caused by brilliant light from stage right. It is nice to hear the spirit behind someone who has mastered the bagpipes of the keyboards.

  24. On May 5, 2013 at 5:58 am,
    Andrew de Berry (Rev) says:

    Nice one Irwin. Be happy everyone!

  25. On May 5, 2013 at 11:06 am,
    BJ says:

    Al, as one who favors fundamentals over technicals, you might enjoy the latest interview over on King World News with Dr. Paul Craig Roberts – Economist, Co-Founder of Reaganomics


    • On May 5, 2013 at 11:08 am,
      BJ says:
      • On May 5, 2013 at 6:26 pm,
        benb says:

        I find Dr Roberts to be excellent, right up there with Ron Paul. What is it about Drs.?
        Not discussed too much here and Dr. Roberts mentions and laffs a bit that not too many people really listen to him. Too bad, he is level headed tells the truth and has insight most dont have or see.

        • On May 6, 2013 at 5:57 am,
          BJ says:

          Agree. You have to be able smile and appreciate all that is good around you–all one has to do is look . Thus when it comes to the shenanigans on Wall Street, it’s better to be objective than too serious–although this last take-down was way over the top; but no reason to be mad at the world in general. It’s not the world that brings us down; it’s the few at the top that want it all.

  26. On May 5, 2013 at 1:43 pm,
    Dennis M. O'Neil says:

    I blast form the past expressing my thoughts about segment 6 -7.
    In summary a little bit of collectivism is too much.
    This post begins with an admission of my often unpopular stance against Social Security and somewhat flows to Social Security creating the inevitable criticism Al set forth about Obamacare……to wit:

    I realize my position on SS is not popular.
    I realize it is not practical for seniors to digest.
    But not being convenient does not make it any less true.
    SS began the process of making Americas dependency.
    If you are running for office and need votes you cannot speak of this fact.
    If you made an investment with Bernie Madoff and were swindled you exercised poor judgment. When you exercise poor judgment you should deal with the consequences.
    Unfortunately people who want their SS that they paid into had the likes of Nancy Pelosi, Barney Frank and Maxine Waters as their own personal Bernie Madoff. Not to mention the John McCains, Lindsay Gramms and Olympia Snows of the world.
    The tax was paid, collected and misappropriated.
    Multiple generations were Bernie Maddoffwith. The Congress made off with your money.
    You ponied up and were swindled. Do not then demand a claw-back to be taken literally off the back of your grandchildren.
    Remember The Social Security Act brought on to its pages…disability…Medicare…Medicaid and yes opened the door for Obamacare. There may be bigger fish? But no fish has been more damaging to the American Spirit than Social Security. There the Republic can be said to have bit the collectivist evil apple.

    Obamacare will decrease life expectancy thereby saving the Social Security non-existent trust fund money.
    We need people to die to save entitlements.
    Think about that!?

    • On May 5, 2013 at 3:58 pm,
      JERRY..the LONG................O^OTB says:

      DENNIS…..solution to medical……eat organic….,rest, exercise,do not drink coke and pop,,,eat veggies, apples, stay away from can goods, sugar, ice cream, cookies,
      stop smoking,,,,drink in moderation,,,one beer per week,,,, do not get sun burned,,,and do not believe everything you doctor says……..do not go to the hospital unless you are ready to die……………and stay out of nursing homes……………..
      Oh, drink clean water,,,,and wash your hands………….

      • On May 5, 2013 at 4:43 pm,
        impeach says:

        Good advice! I carefully went through your list and came to the conclusion that it makes a lot of sense! No limit on naturally preserved grape juice, “water” may include the frost-proofed version, and I also agree on one beer per week, not sure if you mean the small 20 liter keg or some larger, internationally tradeable unit.

        • On May 5, 2013 at 6:47 pm,
          Dennis M. O'Neil says:

          Jerry and Impeach:

          Listen to your body!

          If will tell you what to eat;

          It will tell you who you should meet;

          It should tell you who to marry;

          It will bless you with little problems;

          Little problems with little feet;

          It will tell your kids at times are scary;

          But also life is such a joy;

          Do not read adult tales of fairies;

          Do not read diet books or self-improvement marketing ploys;

          They are selling hopes without wisdom;

          Instead listen to yourself;

          Your needs will self-define;

          What your body needs in the course of whatever time;

          Some need more;

          Some Less;

          Let you urges speak!;

          Have some whiskey in your Wheaties!;

          Let the liberals ban salt shakers- 16 oz. beverages and the rest;

          I must confess I hate to see this country go the way it is;

          But I feel very sorry for the man who comes to confiscate my Cheese Whiz!

          © 2013 D.M. Law Publishing

    • On May 5, 2013 at 4:55 pm,
      Keep Stacking says:

      Hi Dennis,
      I paid into SS for 40+ years, and if I was swindled, then let there be heads that roll, people sent to prison. I agree with your logic, however I demand my SS so I can buy gold and silver each month for ny grandchildren. Best to all.

  27. On May 5, 2013 at 3:11 pm,
    JERRY..the LONG................O^OTB says:

    AL,,,,,,ASK JAMES F….IF WE CAN GET A “” BIG AL FAMILY”‘ DISCOUNT….MAYBE LIKE 50%OFF…..that would be before he figures in OBAMMY CARE……

  28. On May 5, 2013 at 4:41 pm,
    Jerry(Gator)M says:

    Appears to be a lot of negativity regarding the PM’s on this site lately or could it be that reality has set in!!!
    Regards to all !!!

    • On May 6, 2013 at 12:06 pm,
      JERRY..the LONG................O^OTB says:

      Gator……. there will be even more negativity ,,,when the ones who sold short,,,realize, they turned in their gold, to a bunch of con artists…GOldman sakkers,,at a discount………………When prices rise, and they are unable to repurchase the gold they sold ,,,,the negativity will be all over the place……………OOTB

  29. On May 5, 2013 at 6:23 pm,
    James (the lesser) says:

    A lot of people are negative, and justifiable so. Gold has not performed up to expectations. But this is not nessassarly reality. Also many people who missed the big move love to jump on the bear bandwagon now. These same people will disappear if gold starts to go back up. Right now gold is up to start the week and oil is quietly approaching 100/barrel. Gold usually follows oil don’t be surprised if things turn around

  30. On May 5, 2013 at 7:42 pm,
    Tex says:


    Every single part of the weekend show was worthwhile. The discussion of the Affordable Care Act was very good. THANKS. Keep up the good work.

  31. On May 6, 2013 at 7:45 am,
    Chris says:

    Al, it would be nice to hear your comments on \formation Capital now that it has put it’s Cobalt mine on the back burner and what you see going forward if anything for the co. It really seems strange this financing thing went on so long and then turn out like this.