The philosophy of the great economic think tank The Mises Institute, Economic Discussions and Politics
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- Segment 1: Jonathan Moore discusses precious metals and the upcoming San Francisco Metals & Minerals Investment Conference on Nov. 24th and 25th.
- Segment 2: Atul Sabharwal the co-founder of Snipp Interactive introduces his company.
- Segment 3: Bob Moriarty discusses his great website 321 Gold.
- Segment 4: Doc and Rick Ackerman of Rick’s Picks discuss precious metals.
Hour 2:
- Segment 5: Lawrence Roulston of Resource Opportunities discusses the junior resource markets.
- Segment 6: Glen Downs, Chief of Staff to Congressman Walter Jones, discusses politics.
- Segments 7 and 8: Jeff Deist provides an overview of The Ludwig von Mises Institute of Auburn, Alabama started thirty years by the great economist Lew Rockwell.
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Lesser, I believe you are making the mistake of linear extrapolation to predict the future.
many times this is appropriate, but of course, it is always guaranteed to miss a turn-round. Turnarounds always occur at a time of either highest positive or negative sentiment or a black swan event. Since we are now at a time historical negative sentiment and I think only waiting for a catalyst for a turnaround.
I certainly cannot disagree with you CFS.
By the way, Sanoma is certainly one of the greatest areas in the US of A. Friendly people; great wineries; wonderful weather; and, respectable golf.
How much time do you spend here?
It depends on the relative weather in Sonoma, Lafayette, IN and Norwich, England….
So I’m usually there (Sonoma) January thru’ March. Then April/May in Indiana, June/July in England, August back in Sonoma, Sept in IN, October thru’ December anywhere in the world as the spirit moves me. But at any time of the year, I will take off if I feel like it.
That is what retirement should be like, as long as I’m physically able.
This attitude started when I had brain surgery, and realized my time on earth might be limited. (I’ve always loved to travel though.) None of the people having similar operations when I had mine are still alive, so I must be doing something right.
We may very well come back here towards the end of January for a few days.
Gotta tell you, we really do enjoy it here!
As long as the manipulators keep pressing the “print” buttons, James, they will try to force gold down, down, down. In the past governments were more heavy-handed: they outlawed gold, they imposed heavy taxes on using gold in any form, they publicly rallied against gold in speeches to the common people. Today they have to be much more subtle. They have to malign gold while not destroying it, because the game only lasts until the sheeple/cattle can get inside the slaughterhouse. If they run beforehand the governments lose out.
The problem I foresee is this time there is a core of non-elite among the public that will never sell their gold and silver until there are confiscation laws. The economy can become so distorted that hyperstagflation will look tame, and yet these people will stubbornly wait out the government until the next cycle begins. I fully expect new propaganda directives like schoolchildren searching their parents’ homes for “old” coins to turn into the schoolhouse collection bins as well as overnight currency exchanges of “newdollars” for “old dollars” before this is all over.
I am proud to be one of those stubborn people, who see gold as a store of value, regardless of the price in fiat.
I am definitely in your camp on this one, CFS!
Interesting points you make jhpace.
I personally don’t believe it will come to that, but what the heck I have certainly been wrong before. (At least once!)
Exactly my fear. So, you’re prediction is probably dead on.
(Insert cursing here). Meanwhile the little guy gets screwed, and trying to be a contrarian doesn’t pay off.
Buy basic equities that are so clearly overvalued???? Buy real estate and pay bloated prices to a bank. Bad options. Happy Holidays.
Something stinks about real estate. We had the big institutional money, hedge funds and others snapping up deals all cash, cranking up the rents and now turning around and bailing out. Somebody ran the numbers and decided that play has run its course and now it is harvest time before the next correction I think.
Interest isn’t it Bird?
Morning Cecil,
Real estate here in the West is really interesting.
The Seattle are is unaffordable unless you have a million dollars or more for a nice place.
Kathy and I, on the other hand, live on a world class golf course; are right by the water; have all the hard wood and tile a person could possibly want; a thousand square foot deck; all in a gated community.
I would be luck to sell our place for $325K!
Go figure!
Yes, that’s what I want to find, something of value that’s nice.
Then I WILL buy.
James, you are correct, Puplava pretty much confirms in this weeks big picture. http://www.financialsensenewshour.com/broadcast/fsn2013-1123-2.mp3
I listened to the link Bobby, must have missed it I didnt hear the words gold or silver PMs etc at all.
But, kwn Norcini was saying there should be downward preasure next week.
I really do wonder about gold, all demand has been met for the last 2 years at least, so I am not convinced of any shortage or somebody that wants it cant get it. Maybe the drop in price is as simple as that, anyone that wants it can get it.
We will see over time I guess but there is a supply out there somwhere that people have not identified the location of. Karen Hudes mentions the hoard in Hawii and the only mention of it here by anyone was “dont worry about it”.
Kinda funny, J.Rogers also makes a good point, should the Indians be convinced to sell the price will be going down for a very long time.
I notice more and more people around the net begining to agree with “maybe $1000”
Maybe just “herd think”.
I am going to stick with my belief the Chinese will begin to buy (like they havnt been) at about $1000, they have already stated they intend to stop acumilating U.S. dollars, I think those dollars get switched to gold at about $1000.
But I also think their demand will be met.
From what I heard at financialsense, Puplava agrees completly with Oleary.
I think that Jim is probably covering his bases. Remember, he is a money manager.
Hi Al, Oleary is a billionare invester, not a money manager, and he agrees with Puplava.
Everything he says is consistant with Faber,Rogers Rickards. Thinks 5% gold is the way to go with gold.
I think Oleary is excellent at taking this whole gold industry into perspective.
Zero emotion for him, and as we know, gold for some reason is a very emotional investment for many people.
Yes it definitely is B!
I keep my emotions out of it.
I simply thiink that a bit of physical in one’s possession is a good thing.
I respect your opinion James the Greater, but I am not sure that I would agree with you on this one.
If it turns out you are correct, I simply have to remind myself that precious metal investments are not the only avenues to financial security.
I will always keep a portion of my asset in them; however, because I firmly believe that they represent the assets of last resort regardless of their respective prices. That, by the way, has always been my philosophy.
I wish I was in the US long enough to go to California after Thanksgiving, but since this time of the year tens to be the start of the rainy season there, I tend to head on out to the Middle East.
Hope you guys have a chance to meet up with Mish Shedlock while you are in Sonoma: he’s worth chatting with for this show. Mish’s site is
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
Have a great time in CA.
Probably don’t have time this trip.
Hey great blog, just looking aruond some blogs, appears a pretty nice platform you’re utilizing. I’m presently using WordPress for a few of my websites but looking to alter 1 of them above to a platform similar to yours as a trial run. Anything in specific you would recommend about it?
You might want to scan down on Mish’s blog given above, to discover the effect of Obamacare on one California business. This may be one reason for collapse of business in the US. If the economy is destroyed, can the stock market soon follow? This would suggest extreme danger for the general stock market. Clearly there will be a higher tendency to lower employment and higher automation.
Obama, the America-hating Marxist is destroying the US as we know it, and the stupid democrats are following right along. It does not surprise me in the least that the enforcement arm of obamacare was chosen to be the IRS. We so badly need a revolution!
CFS, the end result of Fascism is a government with a few all-encompassing monopolies controlling every aspect of trade and labor. So we will have a few mega-corporations, no small businesses of any kind, and government mandates followed by the corporations’ willingness to carry out those mandates. It’s about destroying competition. Healthcare is just one more area to be monopolized, with all non-government-partnered entities starved or regulated out, the quicker the better.
Well sure, jhpace.
Unfortunately the majority in our great society seem to want this. People like us? Of course not, but we are not part of the lazy majority.
You know, CFS, I think Obama is simply trying to help people who he believes really need the help. I am pretty convinced that he is a socialist who would like to turn the US into a society pretty much dependent on the government.
Given the demographics in the US as I understand them, he just might be able to pull it off. We started to become a government dependent society back in the sixties with the flower children. Easier to smoke pot than to work, right!
Look at the transition in Europe. That is pretty much all the proof that a person needs.
Sad for people like you, I and those on this site and similar sites.
But you know what, how many people in our society work as hard as we all have?
jhpace1, very articulately correct.
I hope that an absence of physical will soon split the paper market in precious metals from the physical price. How soon? I just extrapolate to believe that it will be less than 3 years. Of course, it is possible there will be nasty taxes/laws to overcome.
I continue to be amazed at the media-supported behavior of the current Administration’s unconstitutional destruction of the economy, and the executive”s ability to choose which laws to obey, which to ignore, and which to illegally and arbitrarily change without act of Congress.
CFS, it does not make sense that there will ever be a big break between gold futures markets and physical markets. If metals are bid up for physical this will naturally be reflected in the paper markets as well. I don’t think it is possible to have much of a disconnect for very long especially if there were genuine shortages arising due to strong demand.
There is currently a 25% premium for physical gold in parts the Middle East and Asia.
In the US the price is set by the paper market. Once the Comex runs out of physical, the price will be set by the physical market and naked shorting cannot take place in the physical market. At that point expect a 25% rise in price.
Yes, I have been hearing about the high premiums, CFS. There are always premiums over spot with coin and bar purchases though but 25% is pretty high. Over here the premium ranges from15 to 20% as well but there is not a developed market for precious metals as far as I can see and demand is weak for coins. Jewellry seems to be what eeryone wants and anything made in Italy fetches good prices. By the way, high premiums usually reflect a market in decline where agents and sellers will not part with metals that they have paid more for than the market will bear. Premiums tend to fall in rising markets with high volumes so I am not sure the gap will be closed as you suggest.
But the real question here, CFS, is will naked shorting ever really go away?
Of course, I have to agree with you again CFS!
CFS – I have to disagree. First off the gold price is hardly linear; so anyone attempting to extrapolate by plotting a tangent line would be quite foolish. Neither am I attempting to plot the slop of the tangent line, the derivative.
I am simply trying to assign a probability, P, of an event, e; P(e). The event being a $200 down move final blowoff in gold (and the counterpart move in silver)
With each passing day being in a bear market the probability of the bear market continuing increases. Similar to the probability of the Sun rising, it isn’t quite P = 1(a certainty) but it’s close.
Gold has been in a very slow downward grind for over two years now and neither the April crash or the June crash has swabbed the deck of all gold bulls.
We need a final true capitulation.
This is the catalyst or turn around you speak of.
You claim the sentiment is at an “historic” low. Again I have to disagree.
It may be in the street, but there is not the proverbial blood in the streets.
In my opinion the $200 to $300 down move is the turn around and catalyst we need.
Not only will I not miss it, I will embrace it!
I don’t completely disagree, The Greater.
So you are inferring that a thousand bucks and we are off to the races again? that is what Gary Savage is saying.
This one paragraph from Jim Synclair interview “Ask the Expert” explains what is happening in the US and most of the World. http://www.sprottmoney.com/news/ask-the-expert-jim-sinclair-november-2013
“Jim: But hyper-liquidity is hyperinflation. In other words, if you dive into this great sea of semantics that inflation-deflation are. Somehow people have in their minds that inflation has to be attached to an ebullient business environment and be the product of a significant amount of demand in excess of supply both for goods and services. That’s not true. There’s a thing called currency induced cost-push inflation which is what all hyperinflation is made out of. It’s when the volatility in the currency creates dislocations in the distribution system that results in the cost of goods and services, foods and fuels, drugs, necessities, necessaries, to go up violently. There has never been a hyperinflation where there’s been a good business environment. Hyperinflation is hyper-liquidity translated into the price of goods and services. Once you have hyper-liquidity, and the four trillion and more that we’ve recently put into the system certainly qualifies, once you have hyper-liquidity you are getting hyperinflation. The only way to avoid it would be to reverse that liquid situation which is politically impossible because of the delicate nature of the modest recovery we have in the West. Because it’s a delicate nature of the modest recovery we have in the West, you cannot get rid of the balance sheets of central banks, especially of the US Fed. There is no exit plan and there is no exit route. You are on a path to hyperinflation that cannot and will not be dissuaded, taken off the path, corrected, made ineffective because there’s no way out of that balance sheet. Hyper-liquidity is hyperinflation. It’s only a question of time until that becomes an absolute and functional fact.”
At present the Federal authorities are using Fascism to control people as a result of hyper-liquidity. The rich get richer and fewer, while people get poorer in greater numbers. This is not necessarily happening worldwide as opposition and revolt ferment in corresponding retribution. The conclusion of this chapter in historical repression is decided individually where ignorance is no excuse.
I see what Sinclair is getting at but what he seems to overlook is that the banks themselves need to be willing and cooperative participants in the release of all that liquidity. They would have to cut loose and start lending big time while turning up the churn rate of dollars in the economy leading to much higher velocity. Has nobody noticed that they are sitting on their hands right now despite demand from small business and for real estate loans as just two examples? To me it seems that they have thought this through. A burst of lending could turn us quickly inflationary. Obviously high rates of inflation do not benefit banks…..but deflation conditions do as loan payments over time actually increase in value. I think we need to err on the side of the major institutions working in their own best interests and not in the interests of the indebted souls of America. Jim needs to rework his thesis. Unless he can provide some reasoning why the banks will destroy thier own balance sheets and accept losses in real wealth then I will just assume we are going to continue to deflate as we have been doing all along. Hyperinflation is the dream of the indebted, not of the banks.
Venezuela, excessive Bolivar with rapid devaluation, practically no bolivar lending with rapid inflation. Venezuela is a big oil exporter and yet starving for foreign currency to the point they are now swapping their gold holdings outside the country for dollars. Capital destruction combined with severe repression and capital controls is causing what liquidity remains to flow into equities for safety. There are very bid differences between Venezuela and the US in their Capital depth but the authorities and financial systems are governing in much the same way.
I would stop lending too unless the terms were guaranteed in my favour and short terms only. You are right Clay. Who is going to offer fixed rates and fixed terms when the currency is spinning out of control.
Excellent comments Clay, very good point the banks not lending prevents high inflation. Can I add? from my perspective its all the same bank, all over the west.
As to what a person should do, I suppose it depends on how long one expects to live. End result between Venezuela and the US will probably be much the same only it will take much longer for the US and be correspondingly much worse.
Jim in the above interview talks about the role of gold in banking and its direction, a “Necklace” displayed as a banks adornment to increase attractiveness in its financial capital and in my view not too much different from reasons Indian Women view gold.
The current battle raging at the Fed is between maintaining attractiveness of the currency and solvency of the banking system. The result is that productive capital in the US is unable to catch up with liquidity resulting in a widening gap. Middle class is shrinking and thus joining the poor increasing Government burdens. Existing politicians can see no solution and thus direct all efforts to kick the can into the future. We can expect US Banks to begin acquiring gold bullion which is probably why they are moving the derivative action to reduce the dollars for gold price. Just this week for example we see large December 2015 futures options for $3,000 gold. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-22/gold-option-bet-on-jump-to-3-000-most-active-for-second-day-1-.html This together with decline in GLD and Comex inventory is more than just possible hedging, it suggest accumulation.
Great macro commentary, Clay. Thank you.
Who funds the Mises Institute?
I believe that the majority of the funding comes from contributions.
I will check that out xlurkr.
By the way how is the weather in your neck of the woods?
Is it me, or is this weekend program filled with an over abundance of promotions and advertising? Sorry if I am wrong, as I did not make thru to the end of any segment.
Certainly was not meant to be.
Segment 1 was simply a heads up on the San Francisco Show; segment 2 could, I suppose, be considered as promotion for Snipp; Segment 3 was a summary 321 gold which is a free site; Segment 4 was economic discussion; Segment 5 was economic discussion; Segment 6 was political discussion; and Segments 7 and 8 were discussions about the Mises Institute.
I make it a point to not be promotional because that is absolutely not our purpose.
China Announces That It Is Going To Stop Stockpiling U.S. Dollars http://intellihub.com/2013/11/22/china-announces-that-it-is-going-to-stop-stockpiling-u-s-dollars/ – What ? China stop buying U.S. Debt. Sounds like interest rates will most likely go up too. According to Reuters crude oil futures may soon be priced in yuan on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. Hyperinflation – So who is going to buy all our debt ? The Federal Reserve, again with more taxpayer dollars, sounds like somebody is going through the late stages of starvation.
The Japanese are doing it (buying all their own debt). So far it has not destroyed their economy although my bet is they will indeed face a hyperinflation in the end. It is just baffling to me how they have allowed themselves to get in SO DEEP that they have no way out anymore.
The difference between Japan buying its own debt and our debt problem is we, the U.S. are not just buying our own debt but we are paying the Bank of England, interest on each and every dollar they print, just to buy our debt. Is Japan paying interest on its currency to the bank of England as well, I think not.
The Bank of England is printing dollars?
That was kind of my reaction, Bird!
On the other hand, Al…..if I was leading the Fed and I wanted to flood the world with liquidity (without being personally responsible for the repercusssions) but there was fierce opposition at every step along the way to home-grown printing, then I would probably cut a deal with the Chinese to unleash some of their hoard of dollars on the planet. Outside of the Federal Reserve itself there is only two places to go to get the bucks to create stimulus for the globes economies. Those two places are China and Japan of course. When it comes to tails wagging dogs I think between them they have enough leverage to really move markets if they chose and to pump up the system. But that is just crazy talk.
And so the swapping begins…..China to Start Gold Swaps Trading
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-22/china-to-start-gold-swaps-trading-to-further-liberalize-market.html
Guess this is how some of that FX is going to be dealt with as China embarks on a program to trade off foreign exchange for gold and create new avenues of liquidity in its developing gold/repo market. There is sure a lot of activity over there lately in the banking sector and big changes seem to be on the way. Maybe the pundits are correct that one day soon the Yuan will become one of the worlds reserves as it begins increasing in value and is more freely traded on the international stage. And you all thought they were rich now! Just wait until their currency gets some traction and those folks start going on a buying spree. I can hear the wailing already. Some people will be apoplectic as they realize the new force of buying power represented by a strengthened Yuan and how it will move everyone elses markets in the future. This is going to get really interesting.
And just an added thought…..yesterday I posed the question that China’s change in policy regarding its FX hoard might result in a large overseas investment programme and a buying spree of assets abroad. This article essentially backs that hypethesis.
China’s ambitious plans for its huge reserves
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22567974
Look people, this is a big deal. I am really puzzled nobody on this commodities based site seem to want to touch this topic (what China does with its excess reserves) with a bargepole. I am going to suggest that they will flatten inflation in thier own country by diverting surplus’s out of their own country and into the global economy. I think we could begin to see a sea change in buying overseas assets much as what Japan did back in the day. This has the potential to drive up commodities of all kinds if mines and resources are on thier buying radar (they are). The effect might also put a floor under other assets such as property prices and related strategic purchases of utilities, ports, oil production facilties, grain handling and cargo etceter etcetera. The list of potential targets is going to be long but what will happen is that Chinese inflation will be exported abroad as their acquisitions expand. This could certainly impact on gold and silver amongst other commodities so it is worth paying attention too and it will bring angst to a lot of countries who end up selling assets cheap due to their need for dollars. Some might even suggest that unloading those bucks is a strategy to reduce the reliance on a currency that is in decline while others will say that the action will bring fresh and needed liquidy to global markets.
I`ll have to get back later with proofs plus a file log of who owns and controls all the banks in the world, apart from those we now call currently rogue countries which are not control by the Rothschild Banking Cartel. The official document that`s in over at the bank of England as of dated 2010, says from how banks to big to fail are to be funded if they are not to be bailed out, but bailed-in to save those banks that will have failed. Why not have it posted here in America over at the FED, instead at the bank of England. Don`t you know who owns the BIS, the London Gold Exchange, the IMF, the list is nearly endless. I guess its one X-banker to another comment exchange that matters anyway. …
Dennis, the last “owners” of the fed I saw were the saudis.
Jim Comiskey Metals November 13th – YouTube
Again I have trouble posting a link.
Anyway, this fellow on u tube answers the question “who owns the fed”.
Googleing around tho there are those that claim no forgeners own it.
There are also those that claim all profits from the fed go to the treasury.
Forgot to say starting about the 10 min mark.
The China Dollar Trap…….another view of their USD holdings.
http://thediplomat.com/2012/09/the-dollar-trap-chinas-misunderstood-foreign-exchange-reserves/
This scenario is inevitable don’t you think Dennis?
naked gold shorts at high point.
Just cant trust anything central banks are doing behind closed doors.
They could give a flying turd about the average guy. Their all printing buying each others crap. Dear god if they stop monetizing debt the wheels wold come off this PONZI scheme.
Well of course it will, Billy. That is why it currently cannot stop!
20 page pdf giving the bearish and bullish factors in gold … in chart form.
http://www.victoradair.com/sites/default/files/users/VictorAdair2/Gold%20presentationDF.pdf
Thanks Irwin.
the Bullish factor irwin tanks agree !
Great stuff Irwin, thank you.
Congratulations and good luck to Jeff Deist.
“Liberty, Peace and Sound Money”
How about inviting a guest on the program who understands radiation and nuclear energy? Al, I can tell you haven’t read Beckmann’s The Health Hazards of Not Going Nuclear (1976) yet. You really ought to. Nuclear energy is way safer than the next safest form of mass energy generation. Continued reliance on more dangerous forms costs most lives. And, if government would get out of the way, it would be a lot cheaper.
I was a avid follower of Bob M he was calling every Gold turn pretty accurately for years. Hes been calling for doom and gloom for years. Bob M was not exactly truthful. He started his site to warn people that things were going to blow up and when it happens people cant say they weren’t warned. I can tell you I highly regret falling into the Doom and Gloom sold……What now eh? Years have past and Gold idiots have gotten killed. 90% loses in the juniors!? What loses that much? Also the touted safety of resources…..WRONG again. Buy cash flow commercial Real estate. EOS
True enough, Dill. The doom crowd fed a lot of profits into the hands of other people.
Seg.4…….”.QUICK ON THE TRIGGER.”……..,,,,Doc,Cory……
Problem.,,,,,you may not have anyone to sell to ,,the longer the overvalued stock market goes up….the more to one side of the ship everyone is on……
Seg.8….Jeff….. kudos and congrads on your new appointment……………
Al & Cory, what gold stocks do you like (besides the ones advertising on your site)?
I looked over a pile of charts. Forget Tesla and the other pump and dumps.
Energy services look great and the oil sector as a whole is quietly breaking out.
Funny oil at its lowest in recent times but don’t let that fool yas as we know the market is a advanced pricing mechanism look ahead not in the review mirror.
The Ludwig Von Mises Institutue is a treasure trove of information literally at your finger tips.
I wear a khaki colored Eugene von Bohm-Bawerk tee shirt as I type.
One of my best investments was buying a best of Austrian Scholars mini library (10 books). Another great investment was the time investment of reading the treasure trove of Von Mises & Rothard. I had a lot of fun wearing my von Mises tribute t-shirts to Disney World. A few public school teachers on spring break now realize that their pensions are tenuous in terms of purchasing power.
Congratulations to Jeff.
Mission #1….first do no harm!
Competition of currencies……..the guillotine was the competition for the assignat.
Some even referred to it ironically as ‘overhead resistance to monetary inflation.’
Insert drum roll here…. Ba dum dum tish!!!!!!!!!!
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Let’s start off the weekend show with a bang…or should I say a bust.
We are rapidly approaching critical mass in the pm markets.
I now expect a final $200 to $300 take down in gold and another $5 move down in silver.
This was an execution and executions end with a lot of blood and guts.
They don’t end quietly hitting there target bottom.
We have not seen full disgust and fear yet.
After this final blowoff the gold and silver market will be effectively dead.
The late comers who are still in will be slaughtered and will never touch gold again.
Like a few generations before them they will wait to get even some decade from now.
After this expect sideways action for 3 to 5 years as the great gold bull market of 2000 to 2011 is forgotten, the only remembrance being how many people lost so much money.
After that a new painfully slow bull market can commence if for no other reason then it will once again be golds turn. The principle of ever changing cycles always and everywhere in tact…fundamentals don’t matter. Simply hot money moving in and out of assets.
The smart money always ahead of the cycle. The dumb money always behind and caught in the switches.
This is exactly what happened in this last bull to bear market in gold and this historic bear to bull market in stocks.
If you needed a picture in an encyclopedia to illustrate it this would be it…