Weekend Show – Sat 15 Feb, 2014

The gold market! A harbinger of things to come or just an anomaly?

Hour 1: 

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What a week it was in the gold market! A little under $1280/ounce on Monday and we closed the week a bit over $1320/ounce.  Is this a harbinger of things to come or just an anomaly?   Our panel of experts agree that this is the start of a run-up in the price. Sure there will be hiccups as there always are, but all agree that the trend will be upward.  In addition to discussing gold we also discuss the mining sector. At the request of many of our listeners, our guests identify companies that they are personally invested in and why.

We switch back to politics for the second hour of the show. Again the million dollar (or should we say the trillion dollar) question, “what can our country do to get out of this financial mess?” In our final segment, Dr. Richard Postma and James Farley discuss the findings of the Congressional Budget Office regarding The Affordable Care Act and businesses.

Hour 1:

Hour 2:


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Al KorelinCory FleckAlex LetourneauPeter GrandichRick AckermanRichard Postma
Gary ChristensonBob MoriartyJeff DeistGlen Downs

  1. On February 15, 2014 at 12:56 am,
    Birdman says:

    I’m in. The gold bear is dead.

    • On February 15, 2014 at 1:38 am,
      Andrew de Berry (Rev) says:

      Yes it is Birdman.

    • On February 15, 2014 at 2:07 am,
      SEB says:

      Yep. Agreed. Bear dead been called by Bob Mariority, Sprott, Sinclair and Bo Polny. That’s good enough for me. In fact Bob M has best record on bottoms and Sprott is solid and won’t question him either.

      • On February 15, 2014 at 3:56 am,
        Bobby says:

        my thoughts go to True Grit, where JohnWayne say to Glen Campbell, “Just Like a Texan, when you need ‘im he’s dead” Campbell then lifts his head only to say, ” I’m not dead yet”

        • On February 15, 2014 at 11:15 am,
          Big Al says:

          Great comment, Bobby!

      • On February 15, 2014 at 5:19 am,
        Bobby says:

        SEB, not one of these guys called the top,(i am not familiar with bo polny) what makes you think that they can call the bottom? Just curious, not saying we didnt bottom.

        • On February 15, 2014 at 9:47 am,
          Silverbug Dave says:

          Yes Bobby, I second that. They are perma-bulls, so they are right on the way up but not on the way down!

          The other description is ‘promoters’.

          A move above $1434 would be a significant higher high (than last August’s high) and it would get past resistance that was first put in place in late 2010, where the behaviour of the gold and silver markets seemed to change and went into a mini-bubble phase. That is kind of a key level. Until then, it is potentially a bull trap. Note how the sentiment of many people in the market seems to be euphoric already on this rally.

          If gold gets to $1520 in the Spring as Gary postulates, that would be very bullish — it might fail there the first time.

          Bob Hoye called this rally the start of a cyclical gold bull market; that’s interesting. If the US dollar has some kind of a crisis as Gary Savage forecasts, we could get a 1987 style cyclical bull rally in gold, a huge rally but to a lower high, (like 1985-1987 when gold went to $500, in the face of a huge fall in the USD to new lows in that case). I would like to think that the current econokmic problems should cause gold to surpass its 2011 highs, though.

          Looking at the gold shares from a UK perspective, the FTSE gold miners index has way underperformed the FTSE 100 general stock market.

          In each case of this in the past 15 years, a period of truly excellent outperformance of the gold miners followed the low, so I am hoping for that.

          • On February 15, 2014 at 11:04 am,
            Birdman says:

            You are worrying me Dave….if we all agree then something else will happen. Maybe Bird flu. Today we heard that virtually every province in Vietnam has now seen cases of H5N1 that originated in China. Their are urgent calls for action and thousands of birds have been euthanized. China meanwhile reports a brand new variant which is troubling. It is called H10N8 while in the background H7N9 has caused the closure of live poultry markets across the country. Hmmmm….does it make you wonder how long before its all over Asia?

            Vietnamese Gov’t Urges Drastic Measures as Avian Flu Breaks out in Eight Provinces

          • On February 15, 2014 at 11:23 am,
            Big Al says:

            I guess that we are all promoters of sorts Silverbug Dave. I like to think that I, at least, am different in that I certainly put my money where my mouth is.

            Here is an interesting question, do the folks who promote Coca Cola really believe in their product or do they just drink it because they are provided with free samples.

            I really believe in this market and I, like folks on this site, have lost a ton of money during the past three years.

            I am not being defensive, I am simply showing my passion for this industry.

        • On February 15, 2014 at 11:16 am,
          Big Al says:

          If I am not mistaken, Bob called the top fairly closely in Ag.

          • On February 15, 2014 at 2:32 pm,
            Silverbug Dave says:

            I would say that Bob has been fairly skeptical and certainly not a promoter! And I would never call you a promoter Al, or Rick or Doc or Gary or most people you have on the show. The material and presentatin are way too balanced for such a thought.

            As per promoters, I am talking about the Jim Sinclairs, Sprotts, Embrys, von Greyerz-sss and Turks of this world and the others for example on KWN. We didn’t really get any guidance from those. I am not talking about Bob M or you guys, Al! Not one bit. They should have seen a top forming.

            I think we can all hear the love that you have for your industy Al and it is infectious. For me, it has been infectious since 2002, so it’s nearly 12 years I have been listening.

            I do worry a little that the sentiment of you guys has swiched positive so quickly. It all seems just a little too easy for me to be true, though it looks like a good rally in gold is way overdue to be frank. There should be plenty of room for speculators to enter or re-enter the gold market since the Commitment of Traders etc went to extremes on bearish side. So maybe there is lots of room on the upside, I hope so.

            It’s going to be a totally fasciating thing to watch, Al. History is being made.

          • On February 15, 2014 at 3:24 pm,
            SEB says:

            I second Al. Bob M has been master of bottoms and called tops as well. Adam Hamiltion from Zeal has been master of both bottoms and tops.

          • On February 15, 2014 at 3:29 pm,
            SEB says:

            Dave sentiment is still very bearish based on sentiment trader website that provides those charts. Entire wall st still is bearish and very scepitacal of this rally. I see some morans on Sinclair blog calling this rally “suckers rally” I chuckled at that fool cause he’s a sheep that could not see a bottom if there as a sign saying so. The sentiment has changed only in very few closely followed sites like Al’s and KWN too. Wall street is still bearish but like i said best indicator is volume especially fuel cell volume.

        • On February 15, 2014 at 3:19 pm,
          SEB says:

          Bobby Bob called all bottoms in last few years. So did Adam Hamilton from Zeal. Hamiliton been very accurate with bottoms and tops. Bo Polny is technician of Jim Sïnclair. Don’t know him either much. Actually i like Sprott the best but most accurate was Hamiliton and BoB Top was called also every time by Hamiliton. If i had to pick one i would go with Hamiltion closly followed by Bob M. Hamiliton is more accurate by days. Bob doesn’t pick exact bottom but good enough tho.
          BOBBY BOTTOM IS IN!!!! VOLUME TELLS YOU IT IS if you do not buy into anyone’s calls. I’m 100% in already. Was 75% in since 1180. Bought NUGT few times around that number. I was still cautious and last money went in few days ago on 1280 break out in gold. BOTTOM IS IN. LET THAT SINK IN.

          • On February 15, 2014 at 9:32 pm,
            Bird Man says:

            Even if it is not, SEB, it is close enough for me. We have been wallowing around to the 1200 area for long enough that it looks like it consolidated. I am not expecting fireworks this year though in any case. Just looking for a fair entry point and an opportunity to get cozy with some of the miners. Lets keep in mind that despite best hopes stocks could still go South and that would hurt everything. You can never get too comfortable with the macro picture being as it is.

          • On February 16, 2014 at 10:30 am,
            Big Al says:

            You are absolutely right, Bird. I am simply “staying informed and nimble!”

        • On February 15, 2014 at 3:51 pm,
          SEB says:

          Sentiment. One more thing on sentiment. Look at most of you. Most of you are still skeptical and are questioning this rally and are unsure. That’s NOT positive sentiment but still bearish but from contrarian point of view i’m taking opposite site and saying bottom is in.

          • On February 15, 2014 at 9:36 pm,
            Bird Man says:

            A gold bottom timed with a stock market top still presents hazards, SEB. I think a lot of guys here are sizing that up and trying to estimate the odds in their favour. Fair enough. We would expect experienced people to give such a market a chance to prove itself before making decisions that are ill timed all things considered.

    • On February 15, 2014 at 5:54 am,
      Dick Tracy says:

      Bird, I have become very wary the last ten years of what areas of the world I will invest in particularly with the ponies which I happen to like. It is all too easy to see what can happen in many countries when the volatility starts having a major impact on their economies. You can’t move a mining commodity like you can a manufacturing plant. People are the most important factor and they are found in better jurisdictions with good projects. I only buy stocks that have projects found in North America that includes Mexico which I scrutinize more and Australia. DT

      • On February 15, 2014 at 6:22 am,
        Birdman says:

        You are not alone. I agree with you. African investing comes with hazards. You can be shut down by bureaucrats on thin excuses. It is pretext for you to offer a bribe to be reopened. They don’t ask for money. You are just supposed to figure it out on your own. Land is sometimes expropriated after an investment is established. They might say it is because a service has to go through but they are really wanting your fixed plant, buildings and other assets that are not moveable. My observations are that this happens to locals almost exclusively though. Foreigners tend to get left alone because they have embassies and representation (and more money to fight back). On the other hand, the risks bring high rewards. There is absolutely no question on that score and taxes and regulation are quite low. Virtually all the people I have met who are active in business are doing much better than they would have back home and living expenses are pennies compared to anywhere else. I went to the doctor when I got food poisoning. Two doctor appointments including one test cost me two dollars and thirty cents. Like the price of a Starbucks coffee. Guess you get the good with the bad.

        • On February 15, 2014 at 6:46 am,
          Dick Tracy says:

          I have never had food poisoning but I’m sure there is a greater risk from bacteria in your environment than mine. DT

          • On February 15, 2014 at 11:24 am,
            Birdman says:

            No doubt DT. Winter is a wonderful thing because is knocks all the nasty bugs down for half the year. The big problem where I am though is a lack of refrigeration. The people are slowly migrating to a Western diet but without the facilities that make it work. No ice either. Hell….no power many days. I live by candles and solar and just pray I get an internet connection that will stay alight for an hour at a time.

          • On February 15, 2014 at 11:38 am,
            Big Al says:

            Gotta tell you Machine Gun, I had a case of food poisoning in San Francisco a few years back and I never want to go through that again!

          • On February 15, 2014 at 9:38 pm,
            Bird Man says:

            I dropped 5 kilos in 4 days. Was sure it was the end of me. Worst experience EVER!

          • On February 16, 2014 at 10:31 am,
            Big Al says:

            So, are you okay now, Bird?

          • On February 16, 2014 at 10:42 am,
            Bird Man says:

            In recovery Al. Probably why I am posting so much this week since I have a lot of time to sit around in pyjamas feeling sorry for myself. Still in shock about how low cost the doctor was. I could put him on staff at the house for gosh sakes.

        • On February 15, 2014 at 6:55 am,
          Dick Tracy says:

          Also don’t forget that the market which should be left alone from the invisible hands automatically discounts by sometimes huge margins stocks that are listed in places like Eritrea (Africa) so I don’t see any advantage in taking the added risk even though the cost of labor is much cheaper and the infrastructure is also of poorer quality. DT

        • On February 15, 2014 at 7:32 am,
          Birdman says:

          Your sentiment is why so few Westerners come here and it is why the Chinese, Saudi’s and Indians run the place. See my comment on Chris’s thread yesterday. Four hundred million people on the continent have now reached middle income status. You have got to let the fear go…..this is almost the only place left with good upside growth dynamics and it is well insulated from the hazards the developed countries face. There are good reasons that corporate America and Europe are in a hurry to get established here now. Ten more years and you will be left out sucking air because your competitors will already be dominant.

          • On February 15, 2014 at 7:48 am,
            Dick Tracy says:

            No Birdman, my sentiment has nothing to do with other people I invest for myself, I also leave others to their own positions. In fact you are the one who has switched horses not me I was merely trying to clarify how I see things for myself, if it upsets you then that is not my problem, I’m sure you have your reasons for being there, investors can’t allow emotions to enter the picture or they will fail. DT

          • On February 15, 2014 at 9:55 am,
            Birdman says:

            I was not upset at all, DT!! Just my style of writing. Apologies if it came across wrong. I was referring to general sentiments, not specifically yours. Of course I can’t know exactly how you feel. I have heard so much negativity on the topic of investing here though. Especially in the last while. Crazy comments. But most don’t seem to realize how peaceful it actually is. They have a big image problem here that somehow needs to be overcome. I have no idea how they might do it though especially as minds are often fixed on distorted media messages that are less than helpful. And all those damned charities pumping out the sad stories that could break your heart….it is really too much. Some of the worst offenders should have their arses kicked off the continent since they cause so much damage and inhibit investment. They really cost more than they contribute. They bring in a few million in charity funds but scare away billions in tourist revenues in the process. All greedy self interest if you ask me.

          • On February 15, 2014 at 10:58 am,
            Dick Tracy says:

            Well put Bird, I see where you are coming from and I must admit you have presented a side that I haven’t considered too much. DT

          • On February 15, 2014 at 11:39 am,
            Big Al says:

            I have learned that from you prior comments Bird. I have to wonder how many westerners know and believe that.

          • On February 15, 2014 at 9:59 pm,
            Bird Man says:

            Little by little there is a growng interest. I will tell you one thing though, black Africa is nothing at all like black America. The two societies could not be further apart. There is not the deep class divisions or racism that is seen back home. It really does not exist. There is not the kind of ghettoization either that is a hallmark of race problems in the US where you almost have a sense of encampments and divisions by colour. You don’t feel threatened like that ever. It is still the age of innocence here on many levels and the majority are quite devout whether Muslim or Christian. Right now it is Sunday morning here. People are streaming past my home by the hundreds on their way to church. They all walk as few cars are available and it feels very peaceful. Virtually all the people I see are draped in white. My wife is lost in the crowds because everyone looks the same to me when they put on their Sunday robes. It is really an amazing site. The local church has a speaker system on their rooftop and are broadcasting chants and prayers to call the faithful. At a guess I would say the majority heed the call. It is still serious here and most of the folks streaming past will spend the better part of the morning worshipping on the church grounds, paying their respects, giving alms and taking in the day. It is an amazing site. So unlike the cycnicism that is so prevalent back home.

          • On February 16, 2014 at 10:33 am,
            Big Al says:

            That you for that great comment, Bird!

        • On February 15, 2014 at 11:37 am,
          Big Al says:

          Thanks for that insight Bird!

          • On February 15, 2014 at 10:09 pm,
            Bird Man says:

            Anytime Al. I have to say that the view here towards charity is growing increasingly negative. Western handouts are not appreciated on many levels because they are seen to be reinforcing poverty rather than alleviating it. Governments for example are put off by all the donations of clothing for example because they are undermining the textile industry and killing jobs growth. Most of those clothes end up on the black market shops anyway and don’t reach the needy in the form of gifts. The best way to make a difference here now is to invest so jobs are created. THAT is what everyone really wants…..to be fishermen, not recipients of fish. The charity model is broken anyway….it is totally corrupt but I cannot comment on it diectly because it is actually dangerous to do so. Too much money is at stake. I will tell you in person should we ever meet though that some well known outfits are utterly rotten to the core. You would never contribute another penny if you heard the truth.

          • On February 16, 2014 at 10:35 am,
            Big Al says:

            Bird, my personal opinion (very strongly) is to try to teach people how to fish.

            We were at a party last night with some friends who are involved in teaching Kenyans how to fish. I was asked to contribute to help support a school.

            Bet you can guess what I said!

          • On February 16, 2014 at 10:52 am,
            Bird Man says:

            Some of the smaller organizations are brilliant, Al. They do fantastic work and report back results to their congregations in person. There is good accountability. It is the big name ones that seem to be the problem. They turn into bureaucracies heavily weighted at the top and treat contributors like shareholders. Way too corporate and godless and not good for the people they claim to serve (in my opinion).

      • On February 15, 2014 at 11:36 am,
        Big Al says:

        I agree with you Machine Gun!

    • On February 15, 2014 at 8:48 am,
      JERRY the Long..................O^OTB says:


    • On February 15, 2014 at 9:58 am,
      CFS says:

      Nouriel Roubini was interesting on Mike Campbell’s program. He is calling the commodities bubble as ended.
      Podcast on http://www.Moneytalks.net later.

      • On February 15, 2014 at 11:42 am,
        Birdman says:

        Roubini is looking at the strength of the commodity markets from a traditional perspective of supply and demand. He may be getting this wrong. If we face a generational crisis of debt overload leading to a currency crisis in major markets combined with soverign defaults it is by definition a situation that will drive money into hard assets. It is why precious metals will perform even in a poor economy or during escalating inflation. The issue becomes one of wealth preservation and flight from currencies with less emphasis on global demand to drive price growth.

    • On February 16, 2014 at 7:27 am,
      bj says:

      “Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn every now and then” –A.C.

      Interesting discourse on fundamentals, double bottoms and always knowing where the exits are….


  2. On February 15, 2014 at 1:08 am,
    CFS says:

    Volker, Greenspan, Bernanke, Now Yellen; this photo is such a measure of their abilities, I think.
    But maybe Yellen will surprise us.

    • On February 15, 2014 at 11:41 am,
      Big Al says:

      Hard to say at this point, Professor. Too early in the game!

      • On February 15, 2014 at 12:58 pm,
        CFS says:

        I apologize to Ms Yellen. Having heard sporadic comments I had the impression she was showing signs of senility. I completely retract that belief. (which I had not actually posted anywhere in words.) After reading and listening to her 6 hours of testimony, including all the repeated questions, from congressmen who oftentimes displayed gross ignorance, I was very pleasantly surprised by her tolerance and unflappability. She just plodded away, answering each question simply, but precisely. I was most impressed.
        Clearly she was mindful of the possibility of reducing interest paid on deposits at the Fed as a way to increase velocity. (But that has to be balanced against maintaining bank margins. She is clearly capable of continuing to muddle through and preventing a monetary collapse.
        Unlike many posters on this blog, I do NOT place the blame of the state of the US on the Federal Reserve, But on the myopic selfishness of Congress and especially the utterly no-compromise, economically-asinine positions of our Marxist leader.

        • On February 15, 2014 at 2:40 pm,
          Silverbug Dave says:

          I have heard clips of Yellen’s testimony and I took away from it that she seemed much more transparent and easy to understand than Bernanke, ie more candid and of course not all gobbledegook like Greenspan. She seemed to have more humility by far than either of her predecessors, who managed to crash to economy and credit system between them.

          • On February 15, 2014 at 3:55 pm,
            Big Al says:

            Good point, Silverbug!

        • On February 15, 2014 at 3:55 pm,
          Big Al says:

          That is where I certainly place most of the blame also.

        • On February 15, 2014 at 10:16 pm,
          Bird Man says:

          Great comment CFS. I rather liked Janet as well. She is very stable, balanced and human. She showed genuine empathy as well I thought.

  3. On February 15, 2014 at 1:12 am,
    CFS says:

    I think their will be a lot of attempts at mergers. However, like Osisko, I believe the shareholders will feel they are being taken over too cheaply.
    This will be especially true for Companies now at only 20% of what they were at a few ywars ago.

    • On February 15, 2014 at 11:42 am,
      Big Al says:

      Agree again Professor!

  4. On February 15, 2014 at 1:13 am,
    CFS says:

    Oops, years ago…..thick fingers.

  5. On February 15, 2014 at 1:29 am,
    Birdman says:

    Agree Alex. Mediums and mid tiers. Proven reserves….actual revenues.

    • On February 15, 2014 at 11:43 am,
      Big Al says:

      I personally am counting on the little guys. (Assuming I know and trust the management.)

      • On February 15, 2014 at 11:49 am,
        Birdman says:

        I will keep my ear tuned closely to what you are buying then, Al.

        • On February 15, 2014 at 3:56 pm,
          Big Al says:

          Okay, but do not take what I do as being investment advice.

          • On February 15, 2014 at 10:18 pm,
            Bird Man says:

            Of course not! We are all big kids here and know better than that. How is your listenership coming by the way? I would imagine the ratings are up with the positive turn in gold.

          • On February 16, 2014 at 10:43 am,
            Big Al says:

            The site has been coming up for quite some time now. The main reason is because of people like you. I am very serious about that by the way.

            It’s not about bucks anymore, Bird. I just don’t need that bullshit philosophy anymore!

          • On February 16, 2014 at 2:16 pm,
            Bird Man says:

            There is no questions in my mind about your integrity Al. I think you are a stand up guy. Thanks for the kind words.

  6. On February 15, 2014 at 1:36 am,
    CFS says:

    In segments 3 and 4, your expert panel should mentioned gold and PM stocks gapping up, which happened on Friday, and overbought condition now appearing: both indicate a pull-back.
    On the other hand, neither gapping-up or overbought conditions apply to the general market.
    I agree with Bob that gold is insurance, but would add that a Black Swan event may well determine what prices are reached. There are just so many danger factors right now.
    I don’t like the Japanese ambassador’s comments against China.
    I don’t like Italy’s bond refinancing necessary.
    I don’t like Yellen at the Fed, with lack of track record,……etc.
    (Too mant potential variations to call price expectations. What will be, will be.

    • On February 15, 2014 at 11:44 am,
      Big Al says:

      Again Professor, I can’t disagree.

  7. On February 15, 2014 at 1:47 am,
    Irwin says:

    “… One of these days I might just put up some of the emails I have received from these rabid dogs to show you just how hateful they can be towards those who dare to speak poorly of their yellow metal god.

    “As I have said before, I have had some dealings with those trapped in religious cults and I can tell you that the attitude of some of these gold bugs has convinced me even more deeply that in some parts of the honest money camp ( of which I consider myself a member) there is indeed a cultic mentality at work. It is quite scary to be honest. The one thing about being involved in a cult is that it clouds your mind and negates reason and sound judgment. It can be very difficult, if not downright impossible for many trapped in such things to ever come to their senses and realize just how deceived and misled they have become.

    “I honestly do not harbor any ill will towards them – I actually pity them. They have no earthly idea of how foolish they appear to clear thinking individuals.”
    ~Trader Dan

    More at:

    • On February 15, 2014 at 2:40 am,
      Birdman says:

      Dan nails it. I could not agree more. The old guard gold buyers, most of whom have been thoroughly smoked out of the woodwork were as near lunatics as anyone I have ever known. Like rabid dogs with all their insane talk of insurrection, encampments, guns, defensive moats and canned tuna packed in oil. God bless them, but get thee lost. Those are not investors, they are antisocial deviants with an axe to grind and a revolution to start pecolating in thier brains. They ruined gold as an investment for everyone else.

      • On February 15, 2014 at 3:10 am,
        Birdman says:

        Actually, I hope Dan does put up a post of all the lunatic comments. It will be a refresher on just how crazy they were. There used to be some here as well. Thank God they gave it up and moved elsewhere.

      • On February 15, 2014 at 3:35 am,
        Irwin says:

        Haha! Yes, I recall pages and pages, day after day, talk about canned bacon .. on another blog; too funny, and quite disgusting to think about.

        I’ve been experimenting with fermenting veggies lately; easy to do, they stay edible for a long time, packed with nutrients, and no leaching of who knows what from a tin can.

        • On February 15, 2014 at 4:09 am,
          Bobby says:

          Well Irwin, I think some of preper sites have kept the gold writers alive these last 3 years.

          • On February 15, 2014 at 11:48 am,
            Big Al says:

            Probably right Bobby. Those gold writers who are not open minded however for the most part should have not survived.

        • On February 15, 2014 at 4:16 am,
          Birdman says:

          You are a brave man Irwin. I have always wanted to try that but am too worried about botulism and salmonella to give it a go on my own. Maybe point me to a good site so I can read about it a bit more if you have time. I think you need glass or ceramic jars topped with wax as a sealer?…..My wife was showing me how to make dried meat yesterday. It is fantastic. These Africans seem to love to dry and salt everything. Kills the bacteria and parasites dead. Quite unlike Europe where they do cured cheeses and meats as a tradition. These dried meats can be rehydrated back to very acceptable steaks though. They keep well for months on end and they are delicious.

          • On February 15, 2014 at 7:42 am,
            Irwin says:

            Apparently, it’s almost impossible to get food poisoning from fermented vegetables; the worst that can happen is mold can form if veggies are exposed to air, but the mold can be removed, and the rest is okay. Meat is a different story … better to smoke or dry it than ferment it, although some people do.

            Google “Sandor Katz” for youtubes and articles about fermenting. Here’s just one article:

          • On February 15, 2014 at 8:21 am,
            JERRY the Long..................O^OTB says:

            ANYbody…………..remember “BALL JAR”……….canning with a ball jar….glass jar designed to store veggies , over the winter months……Some jars have been found, in homes that are several years old……….and still eatable….

          • On February 15, 2014 at 8:26 am,
            JERRY the Long..................O^OTB says:

            bird…….sorry….posted before I read your post…..on the wax……but, historically, the wax is the older system…..because of the tin lid (1800) type……….
            Pressure cooker lids were used in around 1950?

          • On February 15, 2014 at 8:57 am,
            Irwin says:

            Forgot to mention about the wax.

            What I do, after the most active fermentation is done – usually within a week – I pour some coconut oil on top. Coconut oil solidifies below 25c but even if it stays liquid it’s okay, as the idea is to keep air away from the vegetables.

            The coconut oil doesn’t go to waste .. it can be used again for the next batch or even mixed in and eaten with the veggies; it’s good for you .. better than olive oil!

          • On February 15, 2014 at 9:57 am,
            Birdman says:

            Many thanks, Irwin.

          • On February 15, 2014 at 11:49 am,
            Big Al says:

            That is interesting, Bird, I did not know that!

          • On February 15, 2014 at 11:53 am,
            Birdman says:

            First time I have ever seen it Al, Do you remember the dried salted Cod we used to buy in the old days though? I have not seen it in years now. It’s kind of like that.

          • On February 16, 2014 at 12:31 am,
            Bird Man says:

            Jerry and Irwin…..thanks again. I have been looking at the things you mentioned. Fascinating stuff. I have to say this is one preservation technique that is outside my scope. Total blindspot. But the sites make it pretty easy to understand. I think I will give it a try. Lids are not even required. Just big ceramic or earthenware jars are enough. Kimchi sounds awesome. I am a fan of the hot stuff!

        • On February 15, 2014 at 11:47 am,
          Big Al says:

          “Fermenting veggies” Irwin. Is that like fermenting grapes!

          • On February 15, 2014 at 1:02 pm,
            CFS says:

            Sauerkraut is simply fermented cabbage. My problem is the acidity that often develops with fermentation. Gives me gas!!!! I guess that’s just continued fermentation in the gut!

        • On February 15, 2014 at 2:43 pm,
          Silverbug Dave says:

          Irwin, I was interested to read that comment by Dan Norcini. Does this have anything to do with the seemingly permanent break in the KWN weekly metals wrap?
          I am behind the curve on this.

      • On February 15, 2014 at 6:02 am,
        Dick Tracy says:

        BRE-X was the major pitfall for the junior mining industry over the last 15 years and that was all about insane greed,that is also part and parcel of mining investments and it took a lot of people a long time to forget. DT

        • On February 15, 2014 at 11:51 am,
          Big Al says:

          Anyone who forgets that aspect of our industry is absolutely crazy. You can never be too careful!

        • On February 15, 2014 at 1:06 pm,
          CFS says:

          Bre-X was over 20 years ago now!
          That was a $6Billion problem and in Indonesia…….a country in which fewer writers and analysts are kicking the tires.

      • On February 15, 2014 at 11:46 am,
        Big Al says:

        I don’t really think that they “ruined gold as an investment for everyone else”. I just have to wonder how they can sleep at night.

        • On February 15, 2014 at 1:07 pm,
          CFS says:

          I’ m hazy, but did not one of the promoters die mysteriously in a helicopter crash?

          • On February 15, 2014 at 3:58 pm,
            Big Al says:

            I understand it was suicide.

          • On February 15, 2014 at 4:28 pm,
            JERRY the Long..................O^OTB says:

            it is not suicide, when your hands are handcuffed…………

    • On February 15, 2014 at 5:07 am,
      HEAVYHITTER says:

      Trader Dan……..Dan and others have no experience of tyrannical governments and
      leaders having a ball and chain keeping them from human rights…freedoms.

      The ones that made America great our those that lost their lives and their farms were

      When it all comes down….possibly hard too…you better know how to survive.

      The problem we have now….no one wants to stand up to these tyrants.


      Trader Dan…..and all the GUTLESS…..armed chair generals …trolling behind their

      LIFE COULD CHANGE TOMORROW…the modern life is at very high risk right now.

      If you want to live……YOU BETTER KNOW HOW TO SURVIVE….

      Armed chair generals like Trader Dan…..WILL NOT…..

      • On February 15, 2014 at 9:25 am,
        HEAVYHITTER says:

        What puzzles me in the mind of most thinking this crisis we will somehow
        get through and life will go on like now.


        The coming collapse is going to produce human suffering beyond imagination.

        This is going to affect everyone. If you have gold it won’t help you when this
        crisis gets intense. The intensity will probably where things get unbearable
        2018 give or take a year.

        No, this is not just any collapse. Its going to be the worst collapse in mankind’s

        The reason this will be the worst time to be alive in the history of the world
        its because people forgot about a few very important priorities. They have
        no care or conscious have just brushed it aside. They keep doing it and
        thats why this collapse is going to end up being so painfully miserable
        beyond anything your mind could imagine.


        Why, because nothing is changing and its past the time already to
        avoid the coming crisis mankind will never forget.

        Dark Ages….. will look look a good time at the club…popping bottles. ..HA

        • On February 15, 2014 at 10:04 am,
          HEAVYHITTER says:

          GOLD IS GOING SO…HIGH….soon….maybe $10,000 in 24 months or even higher.

          Not going to post all the reasons. There is absolutely hardly any vision here.
          Mostly everyone looking at the past for future moves in gold. Or it can’t happen
          its too expensive or whatever. This time is different for good reasons.

          I KNOW WHY…..grab your pencils and see if you can discover golds sky high

          FUTURE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! take the Pepsi challenge so you can build your own confidence
          level instead of listening to others because you will not be successful in gold
          unless you know why your in it and not taking just the advise of others.

          That the difference of being highly successful in investing and failure.

          so much disinformation out there and you…you need to know why
          your in gold. Then your conviction with the investment is solid.
          People lose fortunes listening to others and not only that

          ITS NOT THEIR MONEY……no ones going to care…like you.
          Actually they don’t care either.

          Disinformation is so widespread. People even lose their lives from it.


          • On February 15, 2014 at 11:55 am,
            Big Al says:

            And that Heavy, is the exact reason that Kathy and I buy and hold our gold and silver.

        • On February 15, 2014 at 11:54 am,
          Big Al says:

          Okay Heavy call me absolutely nuts, but I think it will take a miracle for what you are suggesting will happen not to happen.

      • On February 15, 2014 at 11:52 am,
        Big Al says:

        Please don’t put me in the category of the “crazies” Heavy, as I do agree with you!

        • On February 15, 2014 at 12:28 pm,
          HEAVYHITTER says:

          Hey BIG BIG AL,

          I gotta hand it to you.


          BIG BIG AL……is not taking the….BAIT.

          Anyway, the analyists here are …TOP GUN….right now. These guys
          are very astute. EXCELLENT’E…..BIG BIG ..AL

          And of course you and Cory made all this invaluable analysis…

          POSSIBLE !!!!!!! unlike anything else out there.

          PERFECTO !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

          $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ BILLIONS ….NOT MILLIONS….AL $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

          GOT GOLD and our little sister….SILVER

          • On February 15, 2014 at 3:59 pm,
            Big Al says:

            Many thanks, Heavy!

          • On February 15, 2014 at 5:14 pm,
            HEAVYHITTER says:

            Now for an important message to everyone. These are dangerous times
            and everyone should take a few moments to listen to great eternal wisdom
            that is far greater than mans.

            And this know, that if the goodman of the house has known what hour the
            thief would come, he would have watched, and not have suffered his house
            to be broken through.

            Be years therefore ready also: for the Son of man cometh at an hour when ye think
            LUKE 12-39&40

            Even Janet Yellen admitted these are very unusual times. Michelle Bachmann
            former candidate for US president has said we are living in end times very
            recently. When it does happen, the coming chaos….everyone will be caught
            off guard. There will be no sign as it happens during a time when things are
            not out of control. IT HAPPENS WHEN EVERYONE IS STILL ENJOYING LIFE.

            No, there won’t be time to duck and cover.

          • On February 16, 2014 at 10:21 am,
            Big Al says:

            I agree with you on this one, Heavy!

          • On February 15, 2014 at 5:23 pm,
            HEAVYHITTER says:

            Typo…..Be ye therefore ready.

            Typos are never allowed with scripture.

          • On February 16, 2014 at 12:46 am,
            Bird Man says:

            Probably not, Heavy. No time to duck and cover. We are already seeing the first signs of currency wars that are precursors to wider conflicts. Biological and electronic wars will likely follow if the conflict drums keep beating louder. A day may come when the internet goes unexpectedly dark and we will all be cutoff from information and again dependant on the press and other media. I fully expect it to happen actually. Be sure to download anything you think is important now because it could all be gone later. Flash crash in a hearbeat. We won’t even know where the hack originates from. Could be any of a dozen capable countries that take it all down….could be our own country. And then fade to black. That is when the shit will really hit the fan because none of us will know what is really happening anymore. It will just be guessing and whistling Dixie. And that is why you cannot seriously entertain keeping too much assets abroad and out of your reach through electronic channels. It may be the biggest risk investors face in the future.

          • On February 16, 2014 at 8:58 am,
            HEAVYHITTER says:

            What do you do…Birdman

            WHAT DO YOU DO…….HA

            I hear ya…man…..load and clear. What cracks me up is there is a way out of
            this. Since the world began….in my little brain going back a few thousand years
            is far enough. What has the world produced in that time……and since then nothing
            has changed. NOTHING….modern man is in for a huge awaking. Every time civilizations
            fail its because they discarded moral values and God. With each passing decade recently
            its becoming much worse. People are not changing and in fact the world is becoming
            much more evil. Just wait till evil raises its real ugly head in a big way. People will really
            start freaking out when their money no longer buys them anything. This is what lies ahead
            then friends. …even close family will turn on each other. Its going to be so bad that I
            can’t even imagine. Why will it be so bad….US DOLLAR IS GOING TO COLLAPSE.


            AMERICA IS NOW ……..A BANANA REPUBLIC….HA…with the worlds reserve currency

            We should be very scared….Banana republics have enourmous debt that can’t be
            repaid and now thats our status.

            OUR CURRENCY NOW IS IN SERIOUS TROUBLE. Interest rates are going to sky rocket
            just like all the banana republics have in the past. Then serious economic decline.

            Then tax rates will go through the roof. Now the police state is kicking into high gear.
            Those that follow it should know recent events in the last few years.

            Birdman last few years of all the changes we…or I could fill a book with a 100 pages
            Or more.


            Whats my personal position …..I shrug it off. No choice as I live by Gods Word
            and promise. His promise is far greater than our minds could comprehend.
            I will escape whats coming…. no question about that. Those that don’t escape
            are those that shrugged off God. What an eternal tragedy not finding real paradise
            with our creator only to suffer for eternity. WHAT A BAD BET THAT IS. What’s so
            foolish is and why people reject their creator I will never understand.

            NO ONE HAS NOTHING TO LOSE…..NOTHING…and everything to lose if they refuse.

            So..the big odds are…….BETTING WITH GOD….not what most of the crowd is doing.


            Anyone who reads this just know your odds. The most important. ETERNAL LIFE ODDS

            No one has to suffer through this….we all have a responsility to choose.

          • On February 16, 2014 at 11:31 am,
            HEAVYHITTER says:

            Yes…BIG..BIG AL…

            Like you said it will be a miracle. Sure its fun ….sometimes…not always
            because we have many other problems in life besides if your wealthy.
            My very precious mother did always tell me….it eases the pain a little.
            Its nice to have your needs met, if nothing else. Like good medical care
            and the necessities of life. However, the fun I have is the challenge making
            huge sums and just keep investing it. I don’t buy anything but meeting my
            needs. The moral of the story here is…..the world could callapse and pass
            away and it will have little effect on me. I’m not hooked on the things of this
            world or lustful lifestyle….dog and pony show. I must try and try even harder
            to be focused on……..


        • On February 15, 2014 at 1:14 pm,
          CFS says:

          The unfortunate thing is that financial Armageddon really does not have to happen!
          Alas, with the politicians we have, unfortunately, it probably could.

          • On February 15, 2014 at 3:59 pm,
            Big Al says:

            Yep CFS, it certainly could and I think probably will.

    • On February 15, 2014 at 7:54 am,
      Matthew says:

      I think Norcini is being a little dramatic with his description and fear, but he’s right about their clouded thinking.
      I remember plenty of “rabid” dot com bulls who also got very angry with dissenters. It happens in any sector that has been in a long uptrend. Non-financial types come in, make a little money, and become believers that think they are experts.
      What makes some gold bulls even more rabid is the fact that gold is the only asset class that is driven by both greed and fear. Either of those emotions can destroy an investors objectivity, but put them together and you have that cult-like dedication that Dan mentioned. These types are extremely unlikely to sell when gold hits historically extreme valuations. They, and most investors for that matter, will not be capable of recognizing the extreme values that will present themselves in other asset classes. They will grow in number exponentially before the gold bull is over. They will be the bagholders.

      • On February 15, 2014 at 11:56 am,
        Big Al says:

        Couple of great points Matthew!

    • On February 15, 2014 at 11:45 am,
      Big Al says:

      Anything that takes away a clear and unbiased attitude is bad, Irwin!

  8. On February 15, 2014 at 2:02 am,
    CFS says:

    You asked what we think. I don’t think the Government will solve the problem.
    I am worried about martial law being declared close to a collapse.
    The Wiemar Stock market went up vigorously as Germany collapsed, so our stockmarket is not a measure of the health of the country.
    I believe a collapse is inevitable, but I pray the politicians don’t choose a war as a precursor to the collapse.

    • On February 15, 2014 at 11:56 am,
      Big Al says:

      I appreciate your opinion on this Professor. My prayers are the same as yours.

  9. On February 15, 2014 at 2:06 am,
    Matt says:

    Then there is 100 years of the Fed and 100 years of Roth and then the 100’s of years of Vatican and monarchies destruction of the wee people. Dan sounds like he does not study history but relies on his beloved charts to tell him reality.

    • On February 15, 2014 at 11:57 am,
      Big Al says:

      Charts are great if you understand them, Matt but history is an equally important factor!

  10. On February 15, 2014 at 2:06 am,
    SEB says:

    Al, excellent guest featured on first segment. Please have this format as often as you can. This is GOLD!!! I really like how all guests are cheating with each other. Excellent format. We will see $2000 gold by dec 31 2014 due to short covering, fresh buying and money outflow from stock markets to percious metals. Also what no one mentioned is the fact that Yellen WILL REVERSE TAPER by June FOMC(per Jim Rickards ) which drive inflationary flight to PMS. Not sure if then money would be going to both stock market and PMS. Tricky subject. Maybe one someone can answer that in that scenario??? Bernake and Yellen will not allow deflation to take over so i would not even consider deflation as an option. Yellen will simply increase money velocity to target 4% inflation to prevent inflation. Thoughts here? Also if you guys looking for miners just look up JNUG, NUGT and USLV. Own all 3 and will ride them to Sprott target of 2000+ or 2300, depending what transpires in months ahead. Looking for million or two here. Good luck.

    • On February 15, 2014 at 8:15 am,
      CFS says:

      SEB, How do you think Yellen will increase money velocity?

      A nobel prize is waiting for anyone who can control money velocity.

      • On February 15, 2014 at 9:14 am,
        b says:

        Give me the prize.
        Pass out the money in “skid” row pubs. to start, then to homeless, then to people with hungry kids etc etc. You will see velocity.
        Easy prize.

        More acceptable option as people dont want to “waste” money.
        Give every person with a mortrgage on their home they live in (only home) at 55 years old and older.
        Give them a million dollars each, under the condition they pay the mortgage and retire.
        I would have added buy a new car to “save” the car manufactureing but that got done.

        Watch the jobs open up and retirees start spending.
        This one has been so obvious since the leman collapse its easy to see government intentions are not directed at whats best for the people.

        Velocity could be increased in other ways, for example, Obama tells all banks “what you dont lend we confiscate” lol instant velocity.

        • On February 15, 2014 at 9:42 am,
          CFS says:

          b, I see you are an advocate of helicopter Ben. First order effects considered only.
          I’m surprised you did not mention B52s dropping cash.
          You think QE can be made to work, just by handing cash out to a different set of people.!

          • On February 15, 2014 at 3:41 pm,
            b says:

            OOps, my mistake. I should have understood what I read.
            How does Yellen increase velocity?
            I have no idea.
            I took it as “how could we increase velocity”

            My point was just give it to people that would spend it.

            Bird, Im a believer in the “way out” is to revalue gold.
            Just me, what can I say?
            But I think there might be a few other moves first, SDRs for example.

            J Rickards does a good interview with Lauren Lister @ yahoo finance
            discussing Yellen and her intentions.
            Its QE…his analysis explains why and when etc

          • On February 16, 2014 at 12:54 am,
            Bird Man says:

            I look at it the other way around, B. I believe gold will revalue currencies. They will all be impacted at once although at different speeds. And yet incredibly we could see dollar strenght as I have been arguing but that is only in reference to the other major currencies the dollar is measured agaisnt. This is the primary reason that commodities will appreciate but we cannot forget that what is really taking place is that all money will be in decline against resources (real assets) so the gains will be less than real. Purchasing power will be maintained better there however than in most financial asseets. We know this as a truism. As inflation arises (devalutation increases) we will see the appearance of strength in other asset classes including gold. We are seeing the first small signs of it emerging now quite in spite of serious deflationary headwinds. It is a paradox for many people.

        • On February 15, 2014 at 10:04 am,
          Birdman says:

          Good one B. Give it to the bums……oh wait…..we already do that!
          Over here they just run inflation at maybe 4 times interest rates. You better believe money moves then. But wait again…..we already have inflation at home that is at least 5 times interst rates…..shit……maybe there is no way out.

      • On February 15, 2014 at 11:12 am,
        SEB says:

        I’ll take the nobel price then! lol How? Simple. There is two ways. One instruct all banks to lend out money they got from QE to lend out for mortgages to people on the street that want a mortgages. That will get money v going. Two money going out of stocks forces them into commodies. First would be more efficient

        • On February 15, 2014 at 1:52 pm,
          CFS says:

          SEB, you are getting a little closer, but no cigar.
          Watch for Yellen to cut interest rates paid on deposits at the Fed. That will cause banks to increase loans, however, the trick is to keep the banks solvent and stop them from creating bubbles.
          The problem does not lie with the Fed, but with Congress.
          The problem here that viable solutions require Congress-critters to give up power; even possibly give up the power to buy votes.
          What IS NEEDED is a serious reduction in rules and regulations, which are stifling development.
          This is not a simple problem to solve without a number of unintended consequences. One has to use best scientific methods and stop pandering to unjustified environmental concerns, but paying good attention to justified environmental concerns. (Many politicians are too ignorant to make this possible.)
          I believe we need to get back towards more freedom in market activity; by reduction of regulations, by reduction of taxation perturbing the market.
          That means reducing spending……but politicians use spending to buy votes….ain’t going to happen until after the revolution.
          In as much as the I.R.S. is essentially wasted productivity in furtherance of mankind, income tax should be reduced.
          I’m not saying enforcement of taxation is not important for production of government income, I’m saying it is UNPRODUCTIVE activity in bettering the welfare of mankind. It does not produce one extra loaf of bread, one extra piece of fruit, etc.
          So reduce IRS. How? E.g raise Standard deduction to median wage. That would take more than half the people off the income tax roles. (Of course, it also should cause half of IRS employees to be fired.) That ain’t going to happen, either, prior to the revolution!
          Indeed, conceptually, I have a problem with taxation of labor; the country went for over a hundred years without an income tax, and for the most part had good growth. If you look around the world and look at the better-working countries, they are NOT high taxation countries. There tends to be anti-correlation between quality of life and taxation.
          The problem, however, is decades of politicians grabbing more and more power, buying more and more votes, making moire and more people dependent on Government.
          Significant changr may not be possible without a monetary collapse or revolution. I don’t see a revolution happening, so I guess I wait for the collapse, which probably won’t happen in my lifetime. I fear that politicians, not people of the ilk of our founding fathers, will create the new country, alas, leading truly to the end of the American Era. I cannot imagine the failure that could happen with the bureaucracy of a world government

          • On February 15, 2014 at 4:02 pm,
            Big Al says:

            Pretty good essay, Professor

      • On February 15, 2014 at 12:00 pm,
        Big Al says:

        You in the running Professor?

    • On February 15, 2014 at 11:59 am,
      Big Al says:

      Thanks Seb,

      Your point is appreciated and well taken.


  11. On February 15, 2014 at 2:18 am,
    Birdman says:

    Bob mentions a mid year crash. It is certainly possible. I actually had a bad dream last night that I piled into miners and then stock markets crashed and all the gold buyers got smoked again. Ouch!

    Just a bad dream though. Honestly, I suspect we will see a parabolic move in equities later this year taking valuations to surprising highs. Not until then will it get really risky. Meanwhile, like Bob says, If I was a short gold right now I would be feeling worried. Agree with that. There is our fuel.

    Doc mentioned headwinds and some caution. I agree despite believing the larger trend will still be moving up. It is the stealth nature that takes everyone by surprise. Peter is right though. We are not going back to the past lows. That is already gone and momentum looks to be taking control.

    Where the hell else can investors find value in stocks these days anyway? It is a no-brainer. Gold hardly needs to move much either since the stocks are already so beaten down it is an industry joke and a good excuse to drink until you forget about the pain.

    So we will watch for the sneaky way the market slowly goes up. A few percent gains here and a few more there and pretty soon you feel like you missed the boat altogether by being too cautious if your are stuck glued to charts. We cannot discount there are still lots of guys out there who will just be waiting to get even on price and bail the hell out as prices creep higher though. I mean those that held all through the declines. Its a headwind for sure that will slow the ascent.

    As Peter wryly notes….lets just hope the media does not catch on too soon!

    Meanwhile we cannot know exactly why gold is going bullish again as Rick mentioned. I suppose the what and the why is not really all that important. Rather it is going with the trend that counts and too much analysis might just lead to confusion. It does look to me as though the shift has happened with the changing of the guard at the Fed. Mr Bernankes departure really was the signal of the conclusion of the gold bear.

    And one last thought. For all you hardcores……next time we hit a peak, use it wisely to take some profit so you don’t repeat the misery of these last years. Remember we are trying to make money here, not join a crying circle and relate war stories about losses! And after everything you have all been through you are hardened veterans now. This time make it work.

    • On February 15, 2014 at 3:00 am,
      Irwin says:

      Good post Birdman;

      Last time I heard a presentation from Bob Hoye (about a week ago) he was saying, once it’s evident that a short-term top is in, wait for a 50% correction of the move up, before starting to buy.

      I pulled up a chart of Goldcorp as an example, to show what I understand him to be saying.

      • On February 15, 2014 at 3:14 am,
        Birdman says:

        Thanks Irwin. That is helpful. It is easy to forget the basics and jump the gun so remembering our strategies to get the best bang for the buck is a great idea. Let’s stay disciplined……it is not easy but it pays better than being the proverbial chicken without a head.

    • On February 15, 2014 at 4:03 am,
      Bobby says:

      Bird, But, but….this time it’s different! LOL

      • On February 15, 2014 at 4:10 am,
        Birdman says:

        Ha Ha Ha!….of course it is!

      • On February 15, 2014 at 4:23 pm,
        Big Al says:

        Ya never know!

    • On February 15, 2014 at 4:03 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Your last paragraph is absolutely the gospel truth, Bird.

  12. On February 15, 2014 at 2:19 am,
    CFS says:

    The ACA was never intended to work. It was always intended to be a way towards a National Healthcare System. Wake up, Guys!.

    • On February 15, 2014 at 4:24 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Interesting theory CFS

      If I didn’t have a lot of respect for you I would disagree. Now, after thinking about it, I agree.

  13. On February 15, 2014 at 2:29 am,
    CFS says:

    Ask yourself: How would you introduce a Nation Health System that the public was opposed to?

  14. On February 15, 2014 at 4:05 am,
    Bobby says:

    Opinions please, Recent bankers death… murder or suicide?

  15. On February 15, 2014 at 4:09 am,
    Birdman says:

    I get the shivers when you start talking about the econommic dislocations to come Al. This thing is like a slow moving freight train whose time of arrival is not known but the destination is coming clearer in sight day by day.

    A background in economics and the investment world tells most of us everything we need to know to change our own iives and try to help our families before trouble arrives. But the conclusions are pretty much out of our control now. The train is in motion and it cannot be stopped.

    Strategically we need to focus on just a few simple ideas.

    Get out of debt. Shore up your cash reserves. Avoid leverage! Cash out of overvalued assets that typically get killed by economic traumas and convert them to cash or equivalents. Stay diversified. Nobody knows where trouble will erupt. All the eggs in one basket is NOT a good idea. Invest in the most liquid and certain of markets and those that are known to benefit most from discord. And take care of our health and families.

    Not one single person who comes to a site like this has any excuse to screw this up by not taking steps well before trouble arrives. Not one. Some people will never listen though. Their fate is their own

    • On February 15, 2014 at 4:25 pm,
      Big Al says:

      No, none of us will have any excuses at all Bird!

  16. On February 15, 2014 at 4:57 am,
    Matt says:

    I listened to Karen Hudes recent interviews where she talks about the real available gold in the world.
    She quoted 3X the 170,000 tonnes figure previously announced.
    The former senior Counsel for the World Bank is worth listening to.

    • On February 15, 2014 at 6:30 am,
      JERRY the Long..................O^OTB says:

      were have you been…………….b and I talked about this earlier in the week………
      I am still trying to figure out if she is crazy ,,,,or what……..Would like to have your opinion…………..thanks…………..ootb…………..

      • On February 15, 2014 at 6:44 am,
        JERRY the Long..................O^OTB says:

        were should be where….sorry

      • On February 15, 2014 at 9:42 am,
        SD Marc says:

        I completely AGREE…I am still trying to figure out if she is a “nut case” or what???

        • On February 15, 2014 at 11:17 am,
          Dick Tracy says:

          I will go you one better SD, she is BATS! DT

    • On February 15, 2014 at 9:31 am,
      Matthew says:

      Gold is not corn or copper. Don’t worry about the 170,000 tonnes.
      On Dec. 2, I said:
      The “news” about the 170 tons IS out. If it gets legitimate confirmation, then gold’s stock-to-flow ratio would double. This would make gold even better money since it would then take about 130 years of current annual production in order to double the supply. The Fed can double the dollar supply in 1.3 seconds.

      • On February 15, 2014 at 9:43 am,
        SD Marc says:

        GREAT POINT!…Matthew!…Leave it to you to put things in order, my friend!

      • On February 15, 2014 at 9:43 am,
        JERRY the Long..................O^OTB says:

        thanks for the thoughts………….Matthew……..

      • On February 15, 2014 at 12:54 pm,
        Matt says:

        Karen Hudes worked for 21 years in the World Bank holding the position of Senior Counsel.Maybe some have a hard time understanding or accepting what she says but the woman(and the group of World Bank whistleblowers) are actively defending America.
        She is connected at the top,has access to those in positions of power and is a genius and patriot.

        • On February 15, 2014 at 4:03 pm,
          JERRY the Long..................O^OTB says:

          thanks for the reply

        • On February 15, 2014 at 4:27 pm,
          Big Al says:

          I certainly hope you are correct about her, Matt.

          • On February 15, 2014 at 4:31 pm,
            JERRY the Long..................O^OTB says:

            BIG AL……..what do you think of her?

          • On February 15, 2014 at 4:32 pm,
            JERRY the Long..................O^OTB says:

            What do you think of the 170,000 tons?

  17. On February 15, 2014 at 6:05 am,
    Dick Tracy says:

    I might add make sure you hold some physical that is not in the banking system. DT

  18. On February 15, 2014 at 6:21 am,
    john Law says:

    Wait a minute, Gary was the biggest bear in gold just 3 days ago and those interviews were removed from the site, now he is bullish???. Frankly he has gotten everything wrong over the past 2 years. I would suggest going to cash and crawling into a hole for a while to regain some sense of objectivity,

    • On February 15, 2014 at 4:28 pm,
      Big Al says:


      Nothing has been removed from this site.

      I personally don’t remember him being the biggest bear in gold three days ago.

      Help me out here.

  19. On February 15, 2014 at 6:27 am,
    Andrew de Berry (Rev) says:

    Economic Armageddon Al (Seg 6) – does that equate to a Global Financial reset?

    • On February 15, 2014 at 4:29 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Depends on how you define “global Financial Reset”

      To me Economic Armageddon means the end as we know it. I guess that could mean “Global Financial Reset”

  20. On February 15, 2014 at 6:37 am,
    Andrew de Berry (Rev) says:

    Seg 6 – Parties being polarised Cory over in the U.S. is just the same here in the U.K. A growing welfare-dependent society is what will keep the Democrats in power, whilst here it’s our out of government opposition, Labour Party that courts our benefit-dependent electorate to get itself re-elected in 2016. Meanwhile with flooding and storm damage done throughout the south of Britain both parties struggle not to blame each other over the lack of preparations made or not.

    • On February 15, 2014 at 6:49 am,
      JERRY the Long..................O^OTB says:

      DEMOCRATS………are usually the one’s who have nothing when they get in office, get what they want…figure that no one else deserves what they have, but, do not want to give up what they took from everyone else………….and do not want anyone to figure out how they stole everything from everybody………..

      • On February 15, 2014 at 6:52 am,
        JERRY the Long..................O^OTB says:

        oh,,,,and then they turn REPUBLICAN…………..

        • On February 15, 2014 at 6:53 am,
          JERRY the Long..................O^OTB says:

          THEN you get the TWO HEADED SNAKE………………..

          • On February 15, 2014 at 7:01 am,
            Dick Tracy says:

            Not a bad idea if you are dating twin brunettes. DT

          • On February 15, 2014 at 7:02 am,
            Dick Tracy says:

            2+2, like Chuck Woolery used to say. DT

          • On February 15, 2014 at 9:43 am,
            SD Marc says:


          • On February 15, 2014 at 11:08 am,
            Dick Tracy says:

            SD Marc, Double Ditto!! DT

      • On February 15, 2014 at 4:31 pm,
        Big Al says:

        Great observation O of TB!

    • On February 15, 2014 at 7:41 am,
      JERRY the Long..................O^OTB says:

      The problem with THE US AND UK…………they have the same people running the show……..BANKSTERS…………..
      What is funny……JPMORGAN history starts in 1638…as JPMORGAN farmer,store keeper, who comes to the America …and gets tied up with Govt. and screws or swindles the govt into paying higher prices for weapons…………..there it begins…….
      Weapons…..GOVT….BANKING..PEOPLE WITH GREED………………..each rubbing each other for a bigger piece or the pie,,, while using the “little people”….for their game and gain……..

      • On February 15, 2014 at 7:44 am,
        JERRY the Long..................O^OTB says:

        History …..tells a lot……that is why….the US SCHOOL SYSTEM IS eliminationg HISTORY as a course to be LEARNED………….along,,,with teaching GOVT…MONEY AND BANKING……

      • On February 15, 2014 at 4:32 pm,
        Big Al says:

        Yep, Jerry!

        • On February 15, 2014 at 4:32 pm,
          Big Al says:

          Interesting point, Jerry!

    • On February 15, 2014 at 8:23 am,
      CFS says:

      The dominance of looney Greens does not help. Can’t remove weeds that slow river flow, you might hurt the fish. Can’t kill the coypu that dig holes in river banks and silt up rivers. Can’t dredge to increase river flow. etc, etc. What did these idiots expect?

      • On February 15, 2014 at 4:33 pm,
        Big Al says:

        I don’t believe that the Greens think things through!

    • On February 15, 2014 at 4:30 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Nothing like name calling and people not getting along is there Reverend!

      What a shame!

  21. On February 15, 2014 at 6:38 am,
    Andrew de Berry (Rev) says:

    Should have added – ABSOLUTEY PATHETIC!

  22. On February 15, 2014 at 6:58 am,
    Ann says:

    Bob M mentioned ..Bitcoin..trading at $333 this morning! I dont own it, and really dont understand it, What happened? Why the huge plummet in the last week?

    • On February 15, 2014 at 7:10 am,
      Andrew de Berry (Rev) says:

      Ann bitcoin standing at $649.5 right now…..?
      Bitcoin’s proponents really don’t care what price it reaches or descends to. Max Keiser is one of the leading pioneers of B having now introduced his own MaxCoin. Dominic Frisby is about to launch a book on the subject. But for those of us who don’t own B it seems that more and more business folk see is as by far and away the least corruptible means for transacting business.

      • On February 15, 2014 at 7:25 am,
        JERRY the Long..................O^OTB says:

        Andy……….I think most of the businesses ,,,do not want to pay the transaction fee, of 3%…for VISA, MC…to handle the transaction or sale………and find that bitcoin eliminates the fee………

      • On February 15, 2014 at 7:33 am,
        Ann says:

        Rev- thank-you very much for the response… Was not aware Keiser was involved.Also looking forward to the upcoming book by Dominic F.

    • On February 15, 2014 at 7:28 am,
      JERRY the Long..................O^OTB says:

      Ann…..the huge plummet ,,,,was I think from the GOVT. US. ,,,FBI,,,….targeting the person (inventor),,,(forgot his name) for money laundering drug money……..

      • On February 15, 2014 at 12:56 pm,
        Matt says:

        That’s ironic.Must do away with the competition.

    • On February 15, 2014 at 7:34 am,
      JERRY the Long..................O^OTB says:

      GOVT…will fight bitcoin…….at every level………..
      Bitcoin,,,eliminates the need for unbacked paper(notes),circulated as debt and usuary, by the FED. RESERVE BANKSETER THUGS…………

      • On February 15, 2014 at 7:39 am,
        Ann says:

        Thanks-jerry i had heard, read , somewhere that the US govt. had given their “blessing” regarding B. Cheers!!

        • On February 15, 2014 at 7:45 am,
          Ann says:

          Forgot to add.. Wondering why the huge difference in the Reverands quote of $650. and the Mt Gox quote of $340 ??

          • On February 15, 2014 at 7:49 am,
            JERRY the Long..................O^OTB says:

            The REV….will have to answer that one…………
            I only follow bitcoin, to see if I am missing something…….

          • On February 15, 2014 at 8:36 am,
            Brian says:

            There are several. markets for trading BTC with a range of values.

            Bitstamp: 657.2, BTC-e: 638.755, Mt.Gox: 384.776, Huobi: 661.39

            Here is a link. You can click on the specific market at top and the graph changes



          • On February 15, 2014 at 8:49 am,
            Matthew says:

            Just over two months ago, BC was around $1200. I warned about it several times:

            On November 27, 2013 at 8:30 am,
            Matthew says:

            The concept is interesting, but BC is a gamble at any price. It is a classic mania. Downside risk is massive.

            On December 1, 2013 at 2:56 am,
            Brett says:

            Any bets if bitcoin is going to destroy the price of gold in the next weeks.
            Reply to this comment

            On December 1, 2013 at 1:21 pm,
            Matthew says:

            The safest thing to do when a market goes vertical is to ignore it if you don’t own it and to sell at least some if you do. Long or short, the risk to principal deployed now is huge.

            On December 2, 2013 at 10:15 am,
            Matthew says:

            Make no mistake, BC is driven purely by frenzied speculation and wishful thinking at this point. It acts NOTHING like money. May be someday it will, but that day is a long way off. It is impossible to assign even a “ballpark” fair value to it.
            Those who think that gold is also too volatile are making the mistake of measuring it in dollars. When measured by purchasing power in the real economy, there has never been a more stable unit of account.

          • On February 15, 2014 at 8:56 am,
            JERRY the Long..................O^OTB says:

            Matthew……….that is why ….you are the man………

          • On February 15, 2014 at 9:00 am,
            Andrew de Berry (Rev) says:

            Jerry/ Ann http://preev.com/

          • On February 15, 2014 at 9:03 am,
            Matthew says:

            Thanks Jerry, “the man” sounds a lot better than “lucky.”

          • On February 15, 2014 at 9:48 am,
            JERRY the Long..................O^OTB says:

            Matthew……….”.Luck”….is where preparation meets opportunity……….

          • On February 15, 2014 at 4:08 pm,
            JERRY the Long..................O^OTB says:

            andy………..thanks for the bitcoin converter page…….

        • On February 15, 2014 at 7:48 am,
          JERRY the Long..................O^OTB says:

          yES….the Govt…WILL bless it,,,,,if they get their CUT…..

          • On February 15, 2014 at 7:53 am,
            JERRY the Long..................O^OTB says:

            if, the govt. can GET an extra fee,,,like the fee that VISA AND MC. receive for every transaction that people put on there credit card or debit card……then the GOVT. PICKS UP extra cash for nothing…………..JUST MORE CONTROL………..

        • On February 15, 2014 at 9:04 am,
          Andrew de Berry (Rev) says:
          • On February 15, 2014 at 4:17 pm,
            JERRY the Long..................O^OTB says:

            I thought, I had heard it all…………..what a hoot…………..

    • On February 15, 2014 at 8:26 am,
      CFS says:

      Ann, a lot of money laundering via bitcoin was happening. The Russian government finally cracked down.

    • On February 15, 2014 at 8:45 am,
      PastExpiryDotCom says:

      I heard something to the effect that one of the bitcoin banks got hacked. Imagine sometime in the future, turning on your computer and having some computer virus steal all your money….

      • On February 15, 2014 at 9:39 am,
        Ann says:

        Wow!!! i would just like to thank everyone for taking the time!!

        • On February 15, 2014 at 4:38 pm,
          Big Al says:

          You have to admit Ann, we have a great family here!

          • On February 15, 2014 at 8:00 pm,
            Ann says:

            Oh absolutely, Big Al!! And Brian… Great link!! Thanks.

    • On February 15, 2014 at 9:48 am,
      SD Marc says:

      BITCOIN…..is a con-game and another way for the tekkies trying to get their hands in another financial pie. BITCOIN IS NOT GOLD AND SILVER!! THERE IS NO INTRINSIC VALUE THERE AND IT IS NOT A STORE OF WEALTH!! PERIOD…end of story. BUT, what it is – is a CURRENCY that really pisses off the government because it cant be tracked and provide a trail for taxation! That is all it is and will ever be. It has a FUTURE, when people understand what it is and will ever be…..I will leave it at that…IMVHO!

      • On February 15, 2014 at 9:49 am,
        SD Marc says:

        BTW, Jerry –

        • On February 15, 2014 at 10:05 am,
          JERRY the Long..................O^OTB says:

          I appreciate his hard work,,and the ability to stay in there………just like yours…….

          • On February 15, 2014 at 2:13 pm,
            SD Marc says:


        • On February 16, 2014 at 2:01 am,
          Andrew de Berry (Rev) says:

          Yes he is – the most measured and sane voice all along!

    • On February 15, 2014 at 4:34 pm,
      Big Al says:


      I don’t even look at bitcoins so you are asking the wrong guy!

  23. On February 15, 2014 at 7:03 am,
    Andrew de Berry (Rev) says:

    For those in the U.K. considering gold coins go for the 2014 1oz 24 carat Britannias, retailing at c £840 each right now (discount given by quantity. BullionbyPost and backed by the Royal Mint offers a first class and safe service, The Britannias being legal tender carry no VAT (at 20%) and no Capital gains tax. Best ISA going as far as I can see. Silver 1oz Britannias carry VAT and retail for c £21 each, again discounted for quantity.
    As for that plastic coated ‘currency’ called the Valaurum containing 1/10th of a gram per note, when melted down, forget it. Hugely overpriced for what you get they’re simply a novelty, nothing more. That said if people can only afford say some ten notes at any one time for c£50, then maybe they’ll catch on.

    • On February 15, 2014 at 3:55 pm,
      b says:

      Yup, the aurum right now is a novelty.
      About $2.25 canadian in gold.
      Golds gotta get to $5k for me to “break even” on them. lol
      But I think they will be great in birthday and christmas cards for kids.

  24. On February 15, 2014 at 7:58 am,
    JERRY the Long..................O^OTB says:

    SEG. 5…………JEFF IS WAY OFF……..you are not going to change anyone,,,in their HEARTS,just because it makes you feel good…………..the mind and the heart are tied together…….THE “I”….is the sinner.
    THE GREED,……….prevail over the HEART……….and MAN is GREEDY…….

    • On February 15, 2014 at 4:39 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Not all men, Jerry. But, certainly most!

  25. On February 15, 2014 at 8:02 am,
    JERRY the Long..................O^OTB says:


  26. On February 15, 2014 at 8:05 am,
    James (the lesser) says:

    Birdman – you are declaring the gold bear dead. I hope it is.
    I would like to see $1340 taken out convincingly first before I stick my head out of the foxhole.

    That said I have a question for you…NOT INVESTING ADVICE, JUST TRADING SPECIFICS…

    I have been toying with the idea of buying an option on gold futures contract.


    In any event if I think gold will be at $1900 by the end of December this year I believe I need to purchase a call option on December gold. Is that correct?

    What would the strike price or excercise price be?

    How much is a December call option?

    Any help would be appreciated. Thanks.

    • On February 15, 2014 at 9:54 am,
      Jerry(Gator)M says:

      James, I’m not Birdman but thought you might like information. If you go to the Etrade site there is a complete section on options with explanations and examples. They also explain LEAPS which is a long term option. buying in or out of the money is covered along with examples. Regards!!

    • On February 15, 2014 at 10:26 am,
      Birdman says:

      Not sure why you ask me, James. I never discuss specifics of trading and personally consider options a minefield of hazards. If I was younger I might be more interested in the riskier side but that time is passed. I would refer you to Rick who is one of our resident experts on the subject. Speaking of which I have been thinking seriously about taking his hidden pivot course. There is always something new to learn from the pros about reducing risk and he has had great success keeping his traders flush and out of the shark infested deep end of the pool.

    • On February 15, 2014 at 1:29 pm,
      richard says:

      James, maybe I can answer that one for you . You will essentially be purchasing a LEAP due to the length of the contract. You would probably use GLD to make a purchase. You might go to CBOE to see their quotes. If you need assistance, I can tell you how and what tab you need to click for the info. I notice currently that the highest price that they’re stating a bid/call for is 175 not 190. The bid to call for 1 contract (that should control 10 shares) is $.59/$.72. The expiration date is the third Friday of December. Hope this helps. Doc.

  27. On February 15, 2014 at 8:12 am,
    JERRY the Long..................O^OTB says:

    IF you are waiting for any political 2016 difference or change……..You have no idea of how the elections are run………ELECTORIAL COLLEGE,,,,LIKE duh………….

    • On February 15, 2014 at 8:26 am,
      Dick Tracy says:

      Jerry, I know you don’t like unions but the government here is taking them over by passing really restrictive legislation on their powers and what you are seeing are government run unions. I can’t see this as an improvement only a detriment. DT

      • On February 15, 2014 at 8:36 am,
        JERRY the Long..................O^OTB says:

        DT……I believe ,,,originally…THE Unions were good,,,problem, they were taken over by corrupt minds……..
        People have figured out the unions,,tend to cripple the golden goose who provide their ability to feed their face……………
        THE PEOPLE OF Tennessee,,,voted down the unions at the Volkswagon Manuf. plant,,,wonder why……better to have a job,,,than welfare………..

        • On February 15, 2014 at 8:52 am,
          JERRY the Long..................O^OTB says:

          “PEOPLE”….not to be confused with everyone in the state….only the worker bees at the plant………

      • On February 15, 2014 at 9:41 am,
        Dick Tracy says:

        Jerry, my point was if you didn’t like unions before what do you think will happen when the government is running them, good, bad, don’t care. Big government has left no alternatives for the working man and that is another erosion of civil liberties. DT

        • On February 15, 2014 at 9:50 am,
          JERRY the Long..................O^OTB says:


  28. On February 15, 2014 at 8:32 am,
    Dave says:

    I just wanted to wish one and all a “Happy Suspended Debt Ceiling Day to You”
    It may be possible the USA Govt is signaling to the foreign currency markets and foreign world powers, the USA is willing to defend the $ by pulling out all stops to keep every country looking over their shoulders for the wind to be knocked out of their sails if they attempt to submarine the US dollar. This suspended debt ceiling is the signal to the world. So, world powers, if this is your wish, the Card is being held high for all to see! There are definiely consequences but it is the game of current favor.

    • On February 15, 2014 at 4:44 pm,
      Big Al says:

      How could I disagree with that, Jerry? But, I can be hopeful!

      • On February 15, 2014 at 4:45 pm,
        Big Al says:

        How could the debt ceiling possibly not be suspended? We are down the road way to far to be sensible, thrifty, etc.

  29. On February 15, 2014 at 8:42 am,
    b says:

    Seg3-4 Really enjoyable and informative. People might have some varients on their outlook but you can sure tell they all are “steeped” in in these markets.

    I liked the mention of companies people are invested in, more so when the ones Im invested in were mentioned. lol

    imo, Bobs “tools” of blindfold and darts apply, big time. If I could afford it, I would buy every stock of the kitco list and about 50 more not mentioned.

    There are so so very very many good companies out there right now, I think its just about impossible for one person to follow them all.

    This is about the time anyone following this market is going to look like a genius by being correct 99% of picks.
    In 08?-09? after the crash, I was picking about 95% and people couldnt believe it, this time winners are even more obvious.
    Of course the tuff part would be picking which one goes up fastest then switch it to a lagger, but I may just letem ride this time.
    Having read “big” money is made by doing nothin and finding companies that went from 5 cents to multiple dollars and selling at 3-5 times, I should have just kept them.

    In any case, I thought that was one of the best round table interviews ever on this show.
    Well done, thanks to everyone.

  30. On February 15, 2014 at 9:02 am,
    Matthew says:

    It’s interesting to look at the comments here when GDXJ was around $31.

    • On February 15, 2014 at 9:26 am,
      Matthew says:

      …and with GDXJ hitting $30.00:

      On December 2, 2013 at 11:39 am,
      SilverFox says:

      Agree one hundred percent with you.
      Resource stocks are best avoided for some years! There is nothing, I mean NOTHING, no catalysts on the horizon to lift resource industry out of its current funk. However, I see two possibilities that could bring surprise to resource stocks:
      1) War breaks out (hint China)
      2) Someone invents an edible gold popsicle

      On December 2, 2013 at 12:03 pm,
      Matthew says:

      No dramatic catalysts are necessary. In addition to the fundamental drivers that were in place over a decade ago, gold can now turn simply because all the sellers have been depleted at a time when other sectors are flying high and starting to run out of buyers. Relative valuations and sentiment will turn the gold sector.

      • On February 15, 2014 at 9:51 am,
        SD Marc says:

        GOODNESS, Silver Fox, again….I miss you man….ha!!

        • On February 15, 2014 at 10:35 am,
          Matthew says:

          In this case, I don’t mean to single out SilverFox. It’s just interesting to go back and look at the comments/sentiment here when a major low was forming. Bird ridiculed me when I said that the smart money was accumulating shares. We now know that I was right. Massive volume came in just weeks after my comment. The smartest money was booking gains as also smart money took positions. The volume patterns tell the story.
          Look how bearish Mr. Gold-grader was on December 2:
          On December 2, 2013 at 12:15 pm,
          james (the lesserrr) says:

          I hate to be the one to throw a wet blanket on everyones optimism in the gold and spoil the party.

          I am not beoing the voice of doom, just telling it as it is, and so far I’ve been proven correct, unfortunately.

          First I said just last week the gold price was being executed, so lets get it over with.
          No sense being on death row for years.

          I said we needed a quick $100 to $200 selloff to finally plunge a stake in the gold price and gold bulls.

          This is what we are now seeing.

          It is getting easier and easier to call a bottom in gold simply because it is going lower.

          This is a typical touts playbook.



          Frankly, IF, and that’s a BIG IF, it ever gets back to $1900 in 2 to 3 years I personlly would have considered that the worst investment of the last 5 years.

          Waiting and hoping, and crossing your fingers, that gold can get back to the all time high in three years?
          This is madness.
          That’s a terrible investment.

          The bottom line is the Sept $1900 was the time to run for the exit, the late comers were slaughtered, the bull market is over, and gold (and silver) could now conceivably trade sideways for several years, if not a decade.

          Gold can go to zero!

          Yes that is right. Gold can go to zero.

          As bitocin and gold now move in opposite direction it is very possible one will keep going up and the other keeps going down.

          If the paper makret is truly manipulated and leveraged beyond reason it is entirely possible the paper market can go to zero.

          Carzy, right? No

          13 years ago it was at $250. Thats pretty close to zero in the scheme of things.
          And now we are much much more leveraged, naked shorted and manipulated.

          No one know what can happen.

          Many people were saying the 3rd quarter of 2013 gold was going to magically turnaround.

          They never said why though. They just repeated the same mantra.
          Now these charletons ar elong gone.

          Now we are hearing 2014 is the year gold will turn around.

          But again no one says why. No one brings hard evidence.
          Because no one can know!

          At this point all you can do is lick your wounds, stay calm and go down with the ship if need be!

          But like Don Michael Corleone said to Carlos –
          “Just dont tell me your innocent, it insults my intelligence”
          To which I replied:
          On December 2, 2013 at 12:36 pm,
          Matthew says:

          James, don’t worry, you won’t be the one to spoil my party. I doubt that you would be so pessimistic if if you didn’t have so much long exposure on the way down.
          Try to look at things through the eyes of someone who hasn’t been caught on the wrong side. Don’t you like a great deal? Would you rather buy asset classes that are extremely overbought or extremely oversold?

          I also posted…
          On December 2, 2013 at 1:12 pm,
          Matthew says:

          I’m glad I was a buyer over the last couple of weeks because some of the juniors I was buying cost more today than they did then. If the market stays down, I will continue to buy.
          I don’t expect a new high for gold until Q2 2015, but sooner would not surprise me. 2014 should be good either way (for gold).

          The lesson: more than just technical action can help to identify a low risk entry. While the miners as a group bottomed in December, many individual miners bottomed many months earlier. In addition, sentiment remains bullishly low, even when compared to the rally out of the June low. I would give the action of 2014 a B+ or A-.

        • On February 16, 2014 at 2:04 am,
          Andrew de Berry (Rev) says:

          Don’t even mention that name SD Marc. Please only refer to him as Lord Haw Haw from hereon!!

      • On February 15, 2014 at 4:46 pm,
        Big Al says:

        I notice that Silverfox has not been on our site recently!

        • On February 16, 2014 at 1:05 am,
          Bird Man says:

          Dozens have disappeared this year as disillusionment with gold has sucked the life out of their interest in discussing the topic anymore. That is why I am curious if readership is jumping again. There are new posters appearing suddenly.

  31. On February 15, 2014 at 9:07 am,
    Dennis M. O'Neil says:

    It was my outrage about the collectivist chaos to be caused guised as Healthcare Reform that first caused me to type on this board.
    Usually when critiquing collectively caused chaos you are forced to look at the unintended consequences of the collaboration.
    With healthcare reform not so much.

  32. On February 15, 2014 at 9:30 am,
    bill says:

    “The gold market! A harbinger of things to come or just an anomaly?”

    You boys ready for Greater Depression 2.0? Because it’s here.

    Throwaway Americans

    • On February 15, 2014 at 11:25 am,
      Dick Tracy says:

      Bill, at least during the 1930’s people knew how to grow their own food and could cook it, not only that if you had a pair of shoes you could fix them because replacement cost was too high. Now Joe Average can’t balance his own books with a pencil and paper and they will also be faced with learning the basics, like thinking for yourself. DT

      • On February 15, 2014 at 11:32 am,
        bill says:

        I tell ya, Dick, the man’s story is not all that uncommon these days.

        What is frightening is that if these things are happening now can you imagine how things will be when things really fall apart, when the Fed ponzi scheme can no longer go on? The potential is truly horrific.

      • On February 15, 2014 at 12:01 pm,
        Birdman says:

        And its not like we can go out hunting to make ends meet anymore. With a population our size there is like a three day supply of White Tails to get us all through a single winter. Plus you would have to get past the natives first even if you wanted one. We will all be vegetarians one day.

    • On February 15, 2014 at 4:54 pm,
      Big Al says:


      Very sad story that is probably repeatable all over our great land!

  33. On February 15, 2014 at 9:41 am,
    LGC says:

    I like Doc alot, but his tendency to give techinical calls that show a very slow and deliberate rise in gold becomes very madening. Bull gold markets average 20 years and we are in the 14th year which means to me that their should be a pick up in the rate of rise in the market to be were it should go. Doc can be too conservative for me.

    • On February 15, 2014 at 9:56 am,
      bj says:

      “Work our way higher….” and the “trend is higher” sum it up very well..

      … And along the way it’s healthy to test opens, closes, highs and low. I don’t want to sees large gaps or rocket shots.

    • On February 15, 2014 at 1:51 pm,
      richard says:

      LGC, thanks for the comment which is very interesting. Based on technicals, I can only see out for a short term basis and can be pretty accurate on that. However, the long term picture is muddled and I certainly can’t make a prediction of the gold market except based on some longterm history of gold bull markets and charts. We have to remember that past gold bull markets were in economies unlike any thing we now see. The world has never see a credit and debt problem like we see today. In past gold bulls in the U.S. it was pretty much isolated to the U.S. since we we’re quite developed and dominant with an economy that dwarfed the rest of the world. That no longer appears to be the case as our power and economy are beginning to be compromised—–others are catching up. Since the fundamentals are so different today and the debt/credit is so huge, It may take years and crisis after crisis to return to sanity. I expect this year could be a year of consolidation yet (not necessarily just from a technical basis) but that doesn’t mean we couldn’t eventually have a powerful move up that eclipses the previous highs. If I see that from a techincal basis, I’ll throw off my conservative coat and state the odds dictate it. I’m not cast in any one camp since I realize a significant “black swan” can arise without warning and throw the whole supposed globe stability into chaos. We should eventually get to a gold price we can’t imagine now but the timing is up for grabs and no technician can look that far out with certainty. One chart I love is the silver chart going back to 1981. So far, it looks like it’s forming a huge “cup and handle” pattern. If that fulfills itself; I’m sure you won’t mind a return of 5Xs your investment in the next 5 years.

  34. On February 15, 2014 at 9:53 am,
    SD Marc says:

    AH, LGC…Doc is a very calculating and cunning guy…he understands that he is reaching A LOT of people..better to be right and conservative than have a “to the moon” attitude and hurt people with being right but off in timing. I think he shows great wisdom in that approach!!!

  35. On February 15, 2014 at 10:03 am,
    CFS says:

    loved Michael Campbell’s goofy award this week, for Spain and Turkey getting together to build an aircraft carrier.
    http://www.moneytalks.net the home Grandich nowadays.

    • On February 15, 2014 at 10:10 am,
      JERRY the Long..................O^OTB says:

      if Spain and Turkey ….get together…..the aircraft carrier…..would be made out of wood and Turkish taffy………..and the the helmsman, will be smoking a water pipe

      • On February 15, 2014 at 4:56 pm,
        Big Al says:

        But the helmsman will be having a really great time!

  36. On February 15, 2014 at 12:03 pm,
    Dennis M. O'Neil says:

    What are we going to do about the tough resistance of Big Al’s 1320 bottom.

    • On February 15, 2014 at 12:13 pm,
      bob says:

      Hey I thought Big Al was a 42 long with a 34 waist!

      • On February 15, 2014 at 4:56 pm,
        Big Al says:

        I certainly was at one time!

    • On February 15, 2014 at 12:16 pm,
      Matthew says:

      Big Al’s Bottom MUST be dealt with! But not be by me… 🙂

    • On February 15, 2014 at 4:58 pm,
      Big Al says:

      You gotta admit Esq. that may prove to be a fairly good call in the total scheme of things!

      Like I said in an earlier comment, off about 100 points of 10% ain’t all that bad! I still could look pretty bad though! And, I do admit that.

      • On February 15, 2014 at 7:44 pm,
        Dennis M. O'Neil says:

        I am just having fun with the terms.
        Your bottom was support on the way down and now your bottom serves as resistance on the way up.

        • On February 16, 2014 at 1:40 am,
          Dick Tracy says:

          DB, Big Al also likes TOPS! DT

  37. On February 15, 2014 at 2:01 pm,
    James(the lesser) says:

    Jerry, Birdman and Richard – thanks for all the info

    • On February 15, 2014 at 3:58 pm,
      JERRY the Long..................O^OTB says:

      James….appreciate you reading….

      • On February 15, 2014 at 4:01 pm,
        JERRY the Long..................O^OTB says:

        but,,,maybe you ment Gator…..

  38. On February 15, 2014 at 2:49 pm,
    LGC says:

    Mathew, it looks like to me that Al will be able to change his thoughts to another part of the anatomy very soon.

    • On February 15, 2014 at 5:00 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Another part of the anatomy?

      Let’s not get personal here LGC! (time for me to have my third piece of chocolate cake with ice cream for the day.)

  39. On February 15, 2014 at 4:08 pm,
    Dale says:

    It isn’t possible to educate your friends and neighbors when the powerful main stream media has an agenda which is anti-American. How do we gain control the MSM? We pick their weakest link, MSNBC and we drive them out of business. We identify their primary sponsors and boycott their products. We write letters to the sponsors telling them that we are boycotting them. Send e-mails to the officers of the sponsors telling them to cancel advertisements on MSNBC. This should take no longer then 18 months. When successful we focus on the second target –CNN and repeat the process.
    We can win this battle. There is a plan for the total war but the MSM battle needs to happen now.

    • On February 15, 2014 at 4:25 pm,
      JERRY the Long..................O^OTB says:

      I say we attack the “FOOD NETWORK”.and “NFL”,”NBA”………that would only take a week…….

      • On February 15, 2014 at 5:01 pm,
        Big Al says:

        NFL and the NBA? I thought you were a true American!

  40. On February 15, 2014 at 5:48 pm,
    b says:

    Bitcoin is being promoted on Global tv news today., it makes me wonder who it was that came up with crypto currencies.
    An “expert” they had on said the crypto currency should die as people will prefer government currencies because the are backed by banks.

    Yup, everybody loves banks alright, but I thought he might have mentioned what really backs our currencies. The ability to pay taxes.
    Try paying taxes with something other than a national currency and you might be shown your reserved room, maybe you get the same one Al Capone had.

    They did say that the use of digital currencies are growing.

  41. On February 15, 2014 at 6:53 pm,
    bill says:

    Isure hope none of you boys are involved with any woman like this:

    Woman slices tattoo from her own arm to chide cheating boyfriend
    Published: Saturday, Feb. 15, 2014 – 8:59 am

    A Chicago woman showed her ex-boyfriend just what she thought of his philandering after he moved to Alaska to be with another woman – after saying he was going there to take his “dream job.” The woman then sliced from her arm a tattoo of the man’s name, then mailed the grisly memento to the wayward fella.


    • On February 16, 2014 at 10:27 am,
      Big Al says:

      Good Lord!

  42. On February 15, 2014 at 7:45 pm,
    Matt says:

    Apparently,drug monies fund the US tax base.
    The ‘War on Drugs’ actually meant ‘War against those that step on our turf’.

  43. On February 15, 2014 at 8:06 pm,
    Matt says:

    The STL Fed guy discovered some Bush giant multi-$B fraud and was ready to report it.
    The STL Fed economist was hit by the Bush gang, before he sang against them.
    Ron Paul,25 years ago on Bush Sr.,drugs and the head of the CIA running the U.S.:
    Head of DEA describes the CIA as drug smugglers:

    • On February 16, 2014 at 10:28 am,
      Big Al says:

      And “The Beat Goes On” doesn’t it, Matt!

  44. On February 15, 2014 at 8:10 pm,
    Matt says:

    “Once a CIA member,always a CIA member…..It would alarm a few of us in this country if all of a sudden the leader of the Soviet Union would be the head KGB agent.Here we take our head CIA agent and put him at the head of our entire country.” Ron Paul 1988

  45. On February 15, 2014 at 8:46 pm,
    PF says:

    The answer to the political problems is TERM LIMITS for Congress.
    Senators should only be allowed to serve 1 term.
    House of Reps only 2 terms.

    Get rid of all the career politicians.

    • On February 16, 2014 at 10:29 am,
      Big Al says:

      I have absolutely agreed on this for a long time PF!

  46. On February 16, 2014 at 1:15 am,
    Bird Man says:

    ZeroHedge had a terrific article worth repeating here. It is by a guy named Felix Zulauf (he was once the global strategist for the UBS Group and now runs a billion dollar hedge fund out of Switzerland.)

    Anyway, Felix does a great job of tearing into the macro picture of hazards from the epic Chinese credit bubble to the potential for future dollar strength against a backdrop of popping bubbles and a massive deflation coming our way (whew! Scary guy). His ideas parallel mine so closely I might have imagined I wrote the article myself. It is worth the read because I think he gets it. For anyone interested:

    Felix Zulauf Warns Of “Another Deflationary Episode” As “The Mother Of All Bubbles” Pops

    • On February 16, 2014 at 1:40 am,
      SEB says:

      Bird Man if stocks go down gold will go up as stocks (dow and s&p) are inversely relate to each other. That’s been true for 100 yrs. 2008 was exception as liquidity was not there and now we have injected QE 1,2,3,3.5 so that hot money will flow into beaten up sector which is gold stocks and precious metal among with commodities as a whole. Stock market crash will be delayed by resumption of QE by June 2014 by Yellen. One thing i don’t know how will gold react to resumption of printing as money may flow out of gold into stocks again but then again we may go up with stock market like we we have been in last few weeks. This is something i wish our guest panel should address. I’m stock here on that ?

      • On February 16, 2014 at 2:15 am,
        Bird Man says:

        In general that is correct SEB. In practice it often does not hold up as a theory because as stocks crash the baby gets flushed with the bathwater. Lets not forget that mining stocks are still stocks and that widespread selloffs (crashes) leave few survivors.

        Lets also not forget that gold is typically just one asset in a porfolio and that it is often the first to be sold to meet margin demands. Gold is NOT immmune to these forces during a moment of crisis.

        Of particular concern is the function of leverage (margin) during a rout. Capital must be raised quickly and this drives hard selloffs of assets that were previously profit centers. Liquidations can be brutal and sudden. Trading halts should be anticipated. We are in perhaps the most precarious of positions in the markets today with regards to extreme levels of margin that are simply unprecedented in history.

        I would encourage you to review the facts on that subject in detail before making any assumptions of security and to take steps now to reduce your own exposure to levered investments that will leave you vulnerable during a swift decline. If you cannot raise cash quickly ( I mean in one day or less) you could end up screwed royally and in a loss position overnight as both your performing and underperforming positions get crystallized during a selloff.

        I too would be happy to hear the guests discuss the topic in reference to thier own experience during past market declines. I think the insights they offer will be well worth your time to hear first hand. Invaluable is perhaps a better word. Gold itself will almost certainly suffer a body blow although in most minds it should make a quick recovery. But that is not assured and it will be the extent to which the declines persist and how badly mauled investors are as to how responsive precious metals will be in the aftermath.

        Please keep in mind that a crash would be heavily associated in most minds with a major period of deflation arising and that sentiments are already attuned to the idea that a depression on the scale of the Great Depression 1.0 are already instilled in the consciousness of most people. We discuss it everyday here. The concept has percolated throughout the investment community and the recent chart doing the rounds comparing the S&P to the Dow of 1929 has become pervasive, even assumed.

        That is not going to be gold positive until after the carnage has subsided. In the meantime, a great deal of wealth will vanish and many people will find that they are forced to sell financial assets at market low points. So bouyancy will be gone along with optimism and wealth.

        Assets meanwhile are only worth their perceived value in the eyes of other buyers. This is a huge point that could be a discussion all its own. “Where did the money go” is the common refrain we heard following the housing bust in 2006. Well the fact is that the money never existed in the first place. It was all paper wealth based on assumptions of what other buyers were willing to pay. It is why property in Detroit and other cities could fall all the way to zero and still draw no bids. Astonishing but true.

        The only time paper wealth becomes real wealth is when it has been converted to cash. It is why we are hearing a growing chorus of analysts tell us to consider bonds despite the fact rates will soon begin to rise. Capital preservation takes precedence over capital appreciation in such cases. Screw the interst rates in other words and you will come out more whole than had you held assets that plummetted 40, 40 60% or more.

        • On February 16, 2014 at 2:26 am,
          Bird Man says:

          So SEB, the point of my prior comment was to warrn you that you must first survive a market collapse intact before you will be able to deploy your capital to a sector with good potential. Your money must be able to cross the Rubicon of a widespread asset decline in one piece or you will not be in a position to take advantage of the next opportunity.

          Just for your information, it is my belief that most people will be net losers as the equity markets gap down and then do not recover….possibly for many years. During the intervening time between a genuine stock shock and the time when a new bottom appears in key markets the only thing you want to do (unless you are seriously into risky trades) is to just hold on to what you have while planning a reentry.

          It is ill advised to invest too heavily in gold equities at a time like this therefore and especially as worries over a sharp decline begin to mount later in the year. I would suggest keeping to an allocation that you can afford to lose and not be betting too heavily on a golf guarantee as risk is certainly heightened now.

          But let the experienced traders speak. I think their words will instill some sense of why it may pay better to be cautious even as gold is rising and giving the appearance of strength again. Nothing is guaranteed in this world…..not even gold.

          • On February 16, 2014 at 2:28 am,
            Bird Man says:

            Of course I meant to write “gold” and not “golf”. Al’s pastime must be getting to me!

      • On February 16, 2014 at 3:26 am,
        Bird Man says:

        Since I am on this subject, it is probably fitting to express a little irritation with some of the commentary I am seeing here and elsewhere. For example, last week Cory noted the new level of bullishness he was hearing about while at the conference in Florida (?).

        This is not about being irritated with Cory by the way but rather the message of the market makers and perma bulls who populate the gold mining conventions. These guys are not giving it to people straight while pounding on the gold-bull thesis.

        Cory was I think impressed with the theme that “this is when millions are made” and it is times like this that we land the five and ten baggers etcetera. It all sounds great. Happy days are here! These bets just CANNOT lose!

        Don’t buy it though. These are not normal times.

        What the humpers and pumpers are not telling you is that even low priced stocks with large theoretical assets in the ground can be pummelled into ratshit during a sharp market selloff. The assets themselves will be revalued according to the forces that drive most prices lower curing a crisis. Some companies could even get delisted as a result of the combination of sharp stock declines and asset revaluations.

        These snake oil salesmen do not care to express that though. All they want is to entice the unwitting into buying to create the pressure to move prices and stocks up. Good for them of course. They are professionals and have their thumbs on the pulse in a way most here do not. And they will be the first to take profits if they sense the general markets are about to crash. All others will be the bagholders.

        Ask yourself a few simple questions before going long ANY stock right now:

        1) Do you think that this market is sustainable over the long term?
        2) Do you believe that markets mean revert or do you think stocks will rise endlessly?
        3) Are you aware that this current bull is now the second longest in history?
        4) Are you informed about how many decliners appear during a stock crash versus those that rise?
        5) Ask what you think will be the outcome of a serious credit bubble collapse.
        6) If you are leveraged, do you have enough dry powder to survive a sudden downturn?
        7) If you lost your job do you have enough assets to hold onto shares until they rise again? What if that timeframe is measured in years and not months?

        All I am saying is that we are nearing a conclusion to a massive price runup in US equity markets that when it resolves itself will punish gold and gold equities as much as it punishes the excesses of all other market participants. There is NOT a guaranteed trade anywhere so before going ‘all-in” get apprised of the facts and do NOT assume gold stocks will carry you intact across the moat of a much anticipated crash.

        Buyer be warned.

  47. On February 16, 2014 at 1:35 am,
    Bird Man says:

    You know, living in this kind of an economy breeds complacency when the troubles seem to go on endlessly day after day and month after month. It reminds me of living with a bad wife. You know her bahaviours are intolerable but over time you adjust. After all, your assets, your children and the family are inextricably linked. So you start to tune out the problems and adapt. Bit by bit she may become more angry and unstable. Pretty soon the warning signs don’t even affect you anymore as her behavior becomes more irrational and extreme. She throw fits and shouting tantrums or sets bait and does conquer and divide with your children and yet you carry on is if nothing is amiss. You still sleep together and keep up the pretense while sticking with your normal routine. No steps are taken to mobilze against the inevitable trouble that must be coming. Complacency sets in…..until one day all hell breaks out and you find yourself totally unprepared. That is what a troubling economy is like. It just erodes your defences little by little until you are drawn into thinking all the crazy shit is actually normal. We are seeing that today. Each day I open the pages of the internet to see what is the latest story and each day when I think I must have heard it all I am again blindsided by another even worse scenario. It is numbing. Like we are being anesthatized against a great impending pain such that when it actually arrives we are accepting if not feeling immune to its affects. And that is how complacency slips into our lives. It is why we don’t act on warning signs anymore nor take steps proactively to head off trouble before it begins. We slip into an investing coma the same way and slowly begin to flow with the herd almost against our own better judgement when what we really need is to divorce ourselves from both the bad wife and the sense that it is all OK to let down our guard and go with the flow.

    • On February 16, 2014 at 10:48 am,
      Big Al says:

      Great analogy, Bird!

    • On February 17, 2014 at 6:58 pm,
      Jody D says:

      Great comments Bird! Thanks for posting your thoughts.
      Jody D

      • On February 18, 2014 at 2:27 am,
        Bird Man says:

        Thanks!. Glad to hear others are feeling the same way. The bad news is beginning to numb our senses to the extent that what was once bizarre just seems normal now. I really worry about it. We have come to the point where even the discussion of pension seizures and bank account savings being confiscated begins to sound like routine business. It is INSANE!

  48. On February 16, 2014 at 1:45 am,
    Dick Tracy says:

    Now that the bottom is in can we switch the conversation to TOPS! DT

    • On February 16, 2014 at 2:09 am,
      Andrew de Berry (Rev) says:

      Double tops DT.

      • On February 16, 2014 at 2:32 am,
        Bird Man says:

        All good things in life come in pairs. Like double scoops of ice cream!

  49. On February 16, 2014 at 3:31 am,
    Matt says:

    Small problem with your theory in that both Comex and the markets are manipulated with paper,one with Fed paper inflating and the other with Fed associated US banks controlling the price of gold and silver.
    Nobody knows what will happen next because you would have to be an insider at the highest level.
    That is why charts are utter BS and gold is for savings.

    • On February 16, 2014 at 3:34 am,
      Bird Man says:

      My theory is not a theory, Matt. My theory is based on facts and history.

    • On February 16, 2014 at 3:47 am,
      Bird Man says:

      We could also argue about charts all day long. They are invaluable tools. It is a shame you close your mind to them. With regards to manipulation I would suggest you consider that there is no force big enough to control a market crash once one begins other than an outright trading halt that is artificially induced by an exchange. When stocks crash even the rich get pummelled. Actually, they take the worst beating of all. There are few winners. Your conspiracy thesis holds no water whatsoever under such circumstances.

  50. On February 16, 2014 at 4:27 am,
    Irwin says:

    @ Silverbug Dave February 15, 2014 at 2:43 pm

    Someone asked Dan why he wasn’t on KWN anymore. This was his reply … which I expect is also why Big Al couldn’t get Dan for an interview.

    “No one who reads that site regularly wants to hear me when I am bearish on gold or silver. When those markets clearly are in intermediate up trends, I will be loved and adored once more.

    “I wouldn’t sweat it – You can find the same thing here in written form rather than in verbal form. Besides, with the chart being up in the posts that I write, it is actually easier seeing the chart pattern than trying to understand it as I was talking about it.

    “I am glad that you enjoyed it while it lasted. My goal there was to help others hear the other side of the perma-bull argument at times as well as to help them understand the movement of the markets. ”

    (in the comments section)

    • On February 16, 2014 at 4:37 am,
      Bird Man says:

      Because most gold-bugs are singularly focused on one single asset to the exclusion of all others and cannot discern the forces that all the surrounding investment choices put on gold. They have, in other words, no ability to interpret macro themes and so they constantly swing in the wind like a loose pinata on a rope. Makes it too easy to pick them off and make an easy buck. God Bless the gold bugs.

  51. On February 16, 2014 at 5:41 am,
    b says:

    Great post Bird. I really liked the reminder that goldstocks get thrown out too when the market crashes.

    I confess, Im a goldbug, I find I dont have the time to research other sectors.
    There are too many gold companies to research all of them.
    I dont have the cash to buy them all anyway.
    I do agree with Bob and his tools right now. TMM is up 75% from its low for example, SGR a hair over 100%, the list is long.
    Out of interest, maybe take a copy of the kitco list, compare it in 2 months.
    My guess, your up 50-100%
    Mat can repost this in a few months if he wants. lol

    Your right tho Bird, thinking ahead and planning to survive a crash is wise.
    So is another point you make, think for yourself.
    Good post.

    • On February 16, 2014 at 6:09 am,
      Bird Man says:

      I just want you guys to be ready and not end up getting sidespwiped a second time. I am really happy to hear even one person read those posts. While I cannot know the future it is still my belief that both gold and gold equities could perform very well this year if the bottom has indeed been seen.

      I also believe we will see a strong parabolic wave up in US markets before closure arrives and that miners will happily participate. They have a lot of milk to give yet. I hate the timing of gold rsing against a topping stock market though. It is not a good omen. Few of us are market timers either. for some, gettin gout means not getting in in the first place!

      Just be careful out there. Losing twice on gold would hurt pretty bad.

      And just a last thought……following the crash of 29 there was a period measured in decades before retail buyers began to creep back into stock markets. They had been so bitterly crushed by what happened after crdit markets burst that many people refused to use banks even up until the last few years. My grandmother was one. She kept her cash at home until her death just a few years back. The depression left a very deep scar on the psyche of the entire population who was alive to see it happen first hand.

      Cheers. And good luck!

      • On February 16, 2014 at 10:55 am,
        SEB says:

        Bird man. What you said is simply WRONG! 100 years of dow jones history disagrees with you. While Dow will be going down gold will be going up so therefore gold stocks will be going up as gold price appreciates. There will not be any changes made to my positions either. 2008 was exception to the rule as this was liquidity driven event. Now we have QE as liquidity from fed that has already flown into markets. Also this QE will be resumed and will be permanent as FEDs job is to keep banks afloat and that is what they shall do. Resumption of QE will resume in at June FOMC 2014 meeting. That is guaranteed. Fed does not want deflation and it will be prevented at all cost. ANYONE CONSIDERING A DEFLATION SIMPLY DOES NOT UNDERSTAND THE ROLE OF FED!!!!! READ THIS AGAIN! Examine the second chart with 100 years of history. Deflation is not an option since 1913!!!!

        • On February 16, 2014 at 2:14 pm,
          Bird Man says:

          If you do need a worry incidentally, it is far more likely that China will confiscate gold and revalue the Yuan in retaliation against Japan as a first order and secondly as an outcome of a credit collapse brought on by these past years of excess. At a best guess the country has already drawn in more than 6000 tonnes of gold in total. It is black hole for precious metals and the public is sufficiently fluch with metals that a confiscation makes sense (for the good of all of course). On the current trajectory it is likely China will exceed 8000 tonnes in aggregate within two years time.

      • On February 16, 2014 at 1:43 pm,
        Bird Man says:

        Actually I am not wrong SEB. You need to do better research. During the crash of 29 Homestake Mining sold off hard along with general stock markets and it took almost two years to return to its pre 1929 price highs. A selloff in gold and gold equities is both probable and likely during a sharp equities decline.

        Gold at the time was fixed at a price of 20.67 but was still profitable to mine. Due to the depression, costs to extract ores declined dramatically and profits rose in line with those declines. This is substantially what was behind the rebound in price beginning in 1931. Profits were up. Gold mines were a good buy.

        By 1933 when the confiscation took place and gold was revalued to 35 dollars, gold mining revenues exploded as did dividends. Share prices subsequently went parabolic and there is your story for the success of gold mining during the depression. The easy point here is that there were good reasons investors were buying miners in 1931. It was not some starry-eyed, frothy, philosophical rationalization about gold being “real money” or anything silly like that.

        The dynamic revolved specifically around revenues and rising profitability. You know…normal stuff.

        The government in effect had handed a 70% appreciation in product price to miners and then turned around and guaranteed to buy all the gold they could produce. It was a bonanza at a time when most other companies were struggling just to stay alive and consumption had fallen off the map.

        The point is that gold miners DID DECLINE during the broad market selloff which is what my post was about. The dynamic is typical of crashes. It is not pie in the sky shit I just made up especially for you. So I should ask you then…..can you guarantee that the government will again confiscate and revalue gold higher?

        Are you sure that mining costs will decline as they did in the 1930’s or would you perhaps agree that if Quantitative Easing were to be reinstated that maybe costs would rise as inflation were deliberately infused into the system? You will surely agree you cannot have it both ways.

        I only ask you to think through the mechanical linkages of policy and attempt to draw similar comparisons that are plausible to arrive at the correct answers. In 1933 the dollar was deliberately devalued 40% against gold. We do not know what will happen this next time around. We are pretty sure that the Fed hates gold though so maybe lets not hold our breathe waiting fo them to reward all who invest in precious metals.

        In the event that they do though you can probably expect your gold to be confiscated BEFORE there is a revaluation thus rendering any potential profit null and void. You will not get to enjoy the upside. Furthermore, you should expect that junior miners and those companies not producing will be unable to get financing to start their mines for some years. Many will die on the vine. Credit contractions tend to wipe out credit facilities for explorers and risky investments. It is normal. This next crash will probably be exceptional though. A once in a multi-decade event so be prepared.

        By the way, you have no guarantee the Fed will reinstate QE. Nobody knows what they will do.

        • On February 16, 2014 at 2:58 pm,
          Dick Tracy says:

          It doesn’t matter what The Fed does anymore their only and last option was to inflate the stock market. Unlike 1933, they are the principle buyer but the end result will be the same as it always is when you use Ponzi economics.

          People think that the man behind the curtain is all powerful, but only until TOTO the dog exposes the fraud. The Wizard Of Oz movie was made in 1939 the year The Great Depression was supposedly over but the effects on the people made them realize you can’t avoid a deep correction because humans need to be reminded that when we think we are the masters we are not. DT

          • On February 16, 2014 at 3:03 pm,
            Bird Man says:

            They (the Fed) can still push liquidity off their books and back into the economy via lending, DT. No more QE is needed as plenty of energy lies latent already. I imagine they have a few options left at their disposal.

          • On February 16, 2014 at 6:59 pm,
            Dick Tracy says:

            What options do they have left Bird, you tell me so I can respond. DT

  52. On February 16, 2014 at 6:49 am,
    b says:

    Yup, I read pretty much all posts around here, a few other sites as well.

    My grandparents and parents were also affected by the depression.
    My mothers advice to a friend of mine to rent rooms has made him very wealthy.

    I read your discussion of money.
    I tend to side with Mathew, I see your point, but imo the word currency gets used for the word money.

    I see gold is money, arguably silver is money, everthing else is currency or barter.
    I think people should use the word currency when they mean currency, I think it would help people understand a few things. Many people I have known are unaware of what wealth is.
    When someone states “rich keep getting richer” I ask them if they know what wealth is, they usually dont and I explain the reason the rich get richer is they know what wealth is. How does a person get wealthy if he doesnt even know what it is?

    How does a person aquire money if he doesnt know what it is?
    I think gold is the centre of all economices and business, currency facilitates business.
    Im sure everyone knows the debate, anything can be used as currency.
    But only gold is money. imo

    I wear a tinfoil hat but I think the banks promote the use of the word money as currency, as Rickards said, we have 2 generations now of univercity economics graduates that havnt studied money (oops gold) Disinformation has/is being insidiously implimented.

    Many a (more or less) big philosopher has racked his brain as to why money has value. Aristotle was of the opinion that good money should come with very high production costs so as to induce people to attach value to it. He claimed that everybody would have to accept it as means of payment, value store, and value benchmark. Along those lines presented by Aristotle, basically an ancient gold bug, the only materials that would fit this description were gold and silver. Marxists would hail the reference to production costs, but Plato found a better explanation: from his point of view, money had no intrinsic value except the one that it was given by people. This reminds us of the marginal theory of value proposed by the Austrian School of Economics

    By Ronald-Peter Stoferle, Incrementum AG Lichtenstein
    Gold Is Money, Nothing Else

    This was on KWN awhile ago kept it around to reread on ocassion Dec 13

    • On February 16, 2014 at 9:38 am,
      Dennis M. O'Neil says:

      b great post.
      You describe the presdigitation at its’ lowest use
      It is smoke and mirrors convincing many to sweat and slave for what is created out of thin air. At least in other manifestation of currency the thing had to be gathered.
      With the digital dollar it is bitcoin with one additional evil element.

      • On February 16, 2014 at 12:34 pm,
        Dennis M. O'Neil says:

        Tender laws.

    • On February 16, 2014 at 1:21 pm,
      CJV from Nebraska says:

      I am one of those generations of brainwashed college econ graduates. I look back at all of the Keynsian garbage shoved at us in those days. They were so caught up in the theoretical minutia, but never really talked about what money is and as b has stated…that currency is only a means of transferring wealth so long as the paper is recognized as having value by the person receiving it. The ponzi scheme was equivalent to a vibrant and thriving civilization. There were no questions that it could ever blow up. By drinking the koolaid we would all be fabulously wealthy.

      I was fortunate to have a Father who understood that the earth and tangibles brought from the earth were the only true wealth. If he hadn’t had the patience to give me the truth in those days and warn about the illusions of paper…well I’m glad I don’t have to think about where my family would be. If I can keep my wits and avoid falling into the liberal traps I will someday soon be able to say that he saved the lives and futures of his grand children.

      • On February 16, 2014 at 2:09 pm,
        Bird Man says:

        Exactly CJV. And anything with real tangible value that can be traded following a currency failure has the feature that it can substitute and behave as money itself. It is in fact more real than the thin bits of paper we are trained to trust and use. The conclusions are easy to arrive at….if ALL currencies eventually fail but no commodity can ever fall to zero we need to revise our thinking of what money really means.

    • On February 16, 2014 at 1:48 pm,
      Bird Man says:

      Thanks B……and just when I was thnking nobody bothered to read most of these posts. Responses are pretty rare some days. I was just chalking it up to the idea that not many people really care about gold anymore.

      • On February 16, 2014 at 7:06 pm,
        Dick Tracy says:

        Hogwash, you are sounding a lot like James these days, just tell the Indians and Chinese that, not to mention The German government that wants it’s gold returned. You are starting to sound like a banker’s dream. DT

  53. On February 16, 2014 at 2:00 pm,
    b says:

    CJV, I was mentioning it was J Rickards talking about university not discussing gold is money etc.
    I have met 2 graduates of calgary university economics and both told me they didnt get anything if much on gold.
    But I never attended so I have no personal knowledge.

    I think its a real shame people are not taught the basics at least in grade school.

    Money might depend on where we live, like Birds chickens. Bird makes a good point, where he lives chickens and cattle may very well have more value than gold.
    Thing is with all this economic “stuff”, its not a science, theories might not be duplicated depending on circumstance or beliefs.

  54. On February 16, 2014 at 2:23 pm,
    b says:

    Bird, just read your response to seb.
    The more I think about it the more I figure you gotta be making a very good point.
    PM stockholders need seriously think about selling prior to a crash.
    Maybe Garys timing is close?
    But even if we sold,and goldstocks didnt go down, how much of an opportunity is lost as gold goes to 5k or better?
    I have a hunch any profit missed could be made up for.
    I figure Rickards is right, gold will be going to about 7-8k.
    Who really knows tho, Sinclar makes a good argument for 50k.
    But your right, nobody really knows, maybe it gets crushed too,
    My pony is up tho.

    • On February 17, 2014 at 4:26 am,
      Bird Man says:

      Thanks B! Good to hear from you. My whole point was just to keep that aspect of gold stock buying in the back of our minds. It looks really good to me now but there are always a few risks that we should be mindful of.

      You might be surprised to hear I am actually in the “damn the torpedoes” camp…..full steam ahead. The reason is personal though. I am confident I can survive a shock decline and hang on right through to the other side. So I don’t give a shit if I hit some shoals and rocks along the way.

      Strategic long term buying means taking a similarly long term view of five years or more out into the future. On that note I am quite bullish on producing miners and their prospects. Not everyone can do that though. For guys who have been wiped out 60 to 80% on the prior gold declines it would be devastating news especially if you are close to retirement.

      So my words of caution are just practical advice for consideration that anyone getting too crazy about pouring their nest egg into gold and gold stocks to consider. Basically the theme is to take a step back and remember one very important point…….no investment is risk free. Not even gold. Keep some diversification in other words and keep your head screwed on.

      You will stay sane if the trade goes South at some point later this year or in 2015.