Executive compensation, U.S. markets, and some great company introductions

April 5, 2014
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Great show this week with thought provoking discussions about issues like executive compensation, was yesterday in the U.S. markets the beginning of a reversal, will the U.S. economy ever revert back to completely free markets and some great company introductions.  Our guests this week include some of the best in the business: Eric Coffin, Chris Temple, Richard Postma, Sean Brodrick, Rhylin Bailie, Dean Linden, Glen Downs, Jeff Deist and Eric Desaulniers.  Enjoy and, as always, please comment on our blog.
Hour 1:
Hour 2:

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    Apr 05, 2014 05:35 AM

    The panel is wrong about high frequency trading. The HF traders are bribing brokerages to give up information about orders. This is not only immoral but ILLEGAL and the failure of the regulators to stop this practice is amazing.
    It cost regular folks BILLIONS of dollars a year (i.e. all of the profits that HFTs make comes out of our pockets). Wake up guys.

      Apr 05, 2014 05:22 AM

      WOULD appear ,,,the guys need to step up their game………..just saying……ootb

        Apr 05, 2014 05:23 AM

        The guys?

      Apr 05, 2014 05:14 AM

      cfs, I notice your saying “wake up guys”
      ok, some of us have know about hft trading and how it work littealy for years.
      Now its a popular topic as that book came out, forget the author.

      My question, What is supposed to be done about it?
      And what is anyone on this site or any other supposed to do, or can they do?

      I figure people don’t care, and any talk about is all fluff.
      Nothing will be done other than talk, at best its just more of the same info over and over, the markets are rigged,

      So, if you have an ideas that’s great, remember tho, the investigaters, procecuters and judges are owned by the same guys doing the hft.

      So, whats the idea, I and many others would like to know what could be done.

        Apr 05, 2014 05:25 AM

        Count us as part of your group B.

          Apr 05, 2014 05:52 AM

          Al, Im not being sarcastic or derogatory in any way, Im asking honestly.

          I know there IS something that can be done, I just don’t know what it is.

          Some years ago a guy came up with the idea to make a ballon orca, this started huge awarnes of the environment.

          1 person had an idea, he did it and it worked.
          There Is something a person can do.
          But what?

            Apr 05, 2014 05:11 AM

            You have a great idea B.

            I have some thoughts and will be back here with some ideas.

      Apr 05, 2014 05:23 AM


      When you have a minute please give me a call on this. 360-606-1874


    Apr 05, 2014 05:47 AM

    Here is a summary for the action in the Gold inventory at the GLD:

    April 4. 2014: tonnage 809.18/ a loss of 1.8 tonnes of gold at the GLD

    April 3.2013: tonnage 810.98 tonnes/no change in inventory levels at the GLD

    April 2.2014: tonnage 810.98/no change in inventory levels at the GLD
    April 1.2014: Tonnage: 810.98/ we lost 2.1 tonnes of gold inventory at the GLD .
    March 31.2014:Tonnage; 813.08/today we lost 3.89 tonnes of gold over to Shanghai.
    Koos Jansen reports that approximately 6 tonnes of gold has left the vaults of SGE every day which generally equates to Chinese demand.

      Apr 05, 2014 05:08 AM

      thanks for the info………….appreciate………………………..jerry

        Apr 05, 2014 05:26 AM

        I appreciate it too. You are a great source.

    Apr 05, 2014 05:54 AM

    Compensation by stock options per se is not wrong. It depends on the quantity relative to capitalization.
    It is indicative (in conjunction with other considerations) of whether or not the company is simply being used as a cash cow for the board of directors. AND in my opinion about half of the companies ARE USED AS CASH COWS. They have no real intention of mining anything.

      Apr 05, 2014 05:29 AM

      After thirty five years, I completely agree with one exception. The number is higher than 50%. As the fellow from Men’s Wharehouse says, “I guarantee it!”

        Apr 05, 2014 05:50 AM

        That is why, investors in juniors , kind of look to experts like you,,to ferret out the foolsters…………

          Apr 05, 2014 05:53 AM

          I look at the last 8 years, as a warm up ,……time to shake out the dirty laundry, and get serious for the next round…………….

          Apr 05, 2014 05:38 PM

          I don’t know if I am an expert Jerry, but I believe that I am a pretty good judge of character and, consequently I know who to stay away from.

            Apr 05, 2014 05:28 PM

            if you do not have good characters…… have a lousy company, and usually crooks running it………..

            Apr 05, 2014 05:56 PM

            That is true Jerry.

    Apr 05, 2014 05:04 AM
      Apr 05, 2014 05:43 AM

      April 24th, The Chinese are on record to announce their gold holdings. I would estimate somewhere between 4-5 tons. DT

        Apr 05, 2014 05:44 AM

        Thousand Tons that is. DT

          Apr 05, 2014 05:37 AM

          DT…..That’s just the numbers, they would like the rest of the world to think they have.
          My guess, they have more.

            Apr 05, 2014 05:41 AM

            Quite possibly, Mr. Irish

    Apr 05, 2014 05:10 AM

    Of the many articles at zerohedge, this is one of the more important:

    It signals the coming fall of the US dollar in my opinion.

      Apr 05, 2014 05:12 AM

      ditto…..on the fall of the$

      Apr 05, 2014 05:30 AM

      Thanks for this and all the others.

      Apr 05, 2014 05:54 PM you really think the fed will allow the US dollar to fall?…..more QE to come…and more price suppression for the metals…until the money flow increases and inflation sets in as a result…the metals are range bound…..

    Apr 05, 2014 05:13 AM
      Apr 05, 2014 05:48 AM

      Just printed it out. Thank you,


    Apr 05, 2014 05:58 AM

    Find myself in full agreement with your comments CFS – seems to be something ‘sleepy’ about most of Al’s panel this weekend. We could have done with a dose of Bob Moriarty! So truth to tell I’ve found your posts more inspiring.
    As a totally non-technical guy, the sheer scale of all the criminal duplicity going on means to my way of thinking that PMs must take off like a rocket sooner rather than later.
    Keep the faith one and all!

      Apr 05, 2014 05:02 AM

      I wish it would take off, but I don’t expect it.
      Never forget manipulation!
      I expect Gold to be allowed to rise for the next week and a half, followed by a slight decrease.
      However, I believe the overall trend is up for probably most of the rest of this year. (The shortage of physical metal forces this situation on the banks/dealers, despite the return on being short is mathematically advantaged. ) The lack of physical metal forces the upwards movement until supply loosens up, then the trend will turn back down again.

      Apr 05, 2014 05:33 AM

      I stand corrected, but they are all quality people and I, for one, can learn from each and every one of them.

      Maybe it was Cory and I who were lacking?

    Apr 05, 2014 05:08 AM

    Wake up people the market is tired as well. HFT may be bad but the real MAJOR CULPRIT is the Fed.

      Apr 05, 2014 05:19 AM

      The real story of HFT is not out yet.
      HF Traders have been paying brokerages for their clients’ order information, and then front-running orders.
      This will develop a complete lack of trust in all the major brokerages. They have shot themselves in their feet. Interactive Brokers, for example, have already announced that they will allow trades to be directed to a new exchange just started up to disallow front-running.
      Once the full scandal breaks, I believe it will transform the whole industry.

        Apr 05, 2014 05:45 AM

        If in fact it does break!

          Apr 05, 2014 05:45 AM

          As you can see, we have decided to look in depth at this situation. Want to weigh in on it with us?

      Apr 05, 2014 05:03 AM

      Andrew Jackson, 1834:

      Gentlemen! I too have been a close observer of the doings of the Bank of the United States. I have had men watching you for a long time, and am convinced that you have used the funds of the bank to speculate in the breadstuffs of the country. When you won, you divided the profits amongst you, and when you lost, you charged it to the bank. You tell me that if I take the deposits from the bank and annul its charter I shall ruin ten thousand families. That may be true, gentlemen, but that is your sin! Should I let you go on, you will ruin fifty thousand families, and that would be my sin! You are a den of vipers and thieves. I have determined to rout you out, and by the Eternal, (bringing his fist down on the table) I will rout you out!

        Apr 05, 2014 05:47 AM

        good one Irish……………..

          Apr 05, 2014 05:51 AM

          Sobering Irish.

            Apr 05, 2014 05:20 AM

            J&A…..Shame he is not around today…Saying the same to the FED….Wise men have warned for centuries , about the dangers of the Zionist Bankers , but they were ignored , or , JFK…..Today the same bankers RULE THE WORLD………but IMO , the Internet may be the cause of their downfall……

          Apr 05, 2014 05:09 AM

          THIS is where we need TRoosevelt’s quote………”Speak softly and carry a big stick”
          we need the big stick, to beat the crap out of the TWO HEADED SNAKES………

        Apr 05, 2014 05:47 AM

        Yes, Mr Irish, thanks for the reminder!

      Apr 05, 2014 05:06 AM

      Andy, I agree with you on the FED………..

      Apr 05, 2014 05:44 AM

      Basically the markets present a challenge, but realizing that can certainly help all of us.

      Apr 05, 2014 05:01 AM

      Of course its the fed, been the fed in N.A. from 1913.
      On this site some years ago, I repeated over and over, “its the banks”.
      Now, people are seeing it, this is a good thing, slowly more and more will see it.
      Thank goodness for the internet. Funny it was the military that started it.
      Anyway, I hope enough war is not started to stop people from figuring out, “its the banks”

        Apr 05, 2014 05:13 AM

        I would be surprised if we saw another major shooting war.

    Apr 05, 2014 05:24 AM

    Fiat currencies last on average 40 years, then piff. Global dollar into its 43rd year….

      Apr 05, 2014 05:13 AM

      here is a piff……….for you…………THE STATE DEPT… Missing $6Billion and does not know where it went..

        Apr 05, 2014 05:28 AM

        No more than a dime or two doubtless to their way of reckoning.

          Apr 05, 2014 05:19 AM

          what is funny….this is the same amount $6billion, that UBS and Royal Bank paid in fines for the LIBOR rigging………maybe, they just sent the check to the bank……

            Apr 05, 2014 05:20 AM

            after all they are all in the SAME DEN OF THIEVES…….

            Apr 05, 2014 05:22 AM

            J….Ukraine comes to mind.

            Apr 05, 2014 05:04 AM

            It will be a heck of a lot more than 6b, and it doesn’t take too much common sense to understand where it goes.

            The statement “we don’t know where it went” is a lie and a coverup.

        Apr 05, 2014 05:50 AM

        Got a source. It is still kind of early out here on the West Coast and I was up really late watching Breaking Bad. Any of you hooked into that?

        Apr 05, 2014 05:58 PM

        J…the long…I have it on the pontoon…they wanted it secure..Gator secure….unfortunately gators don’t like banisters…..

    Apr 05, 2014 05:12 AM

    Sean Brodrick is incorrect about food inflation. (or maybe out of date)
    Not only have we been seeing higher food prices in the stores in the last few weeks, there is built into the future further significant price inflation.
    Just a glance at Sugar prices, Wheat, coffee prices, cattle and hog inventories also indicate future upward movement. (These prices are going upward partly because of cyclical variation and partly because of the cold winter.)
    Cattle inventories are low because of high feed costs. Pork inventories are low because of recent hog disease problems. Wheat will be in low supply because of bad weather in Canada, etc.

      Apr 05, 2014 05:21 AM

      CFS…Price inflation isn’t the only thing happening in the grocery stores. This article was posted at TFmetalsreport. School Science Project Reveals High Levels Of Fukushima Nuclear Radiation in Grocery Store Seafood By Michael Snyder, who is a former Washington D.C. attorney and now publishes The Truth. on March 27th, 2014

      A Canadian high school student named Bronwyn Delacruz never imagined that her school science project would make headlines all over the world. But that is precisely what has happened. Using a $600 Geiger counter purchased by her father, Delacruz measured seafood bought at local grocery stores for radioactive contamination. What she discovered was absolutely stunning. Much of the seafood, particularly the products that were made in China, tested very high for radiation. So is this being caused by nuclear radiation from Fukushima? Is the seafood that we are eating going to give us cancer and other diseases? The American people deserve the truth, but as you will see below, the U.S. and Canadian governments are not even testing imported seafood for radiation. To say that this is deeply troubling would be a massive understatement.

        Apr 05, 2014 05:26 AM

        I think FRANKIE uncovered this several months ago………..FRANKIE AND FUKE reported on a daily basis………..

        Apr 05, 2014 05:54 AM

        I completely agree Market!

        Original credit to Franky.

      Apr 05, 2014 05:30 AM

      CFS….If Sean B , thinks there is no food inflation…..Then the man is a FOOL.

        Apr 05, 2014 05:55 AM

        He is definitely not a fool.

        We will be discussing this next week.

          Apr 05, 2014 05:16 PM

          the question would be…………IS Sean Married, …..if not, he never goes shopping and therefore, has not seen the change in prices……..or If married,,,,his wife never tells him how much money she spent……………….

            Apr 05, 2014 05:37 PM

            He is married and I would bet that you are right!

      Apr 05, 2014 05:51 AM

      That was my impression which I voiced.

    Apr 05, 2014 05:33 AM

    seg 6…QE is totally wrong………….SEAN , I bet he never goes to the grocery, Sean is all wet………………..

    Apr 05, 2014 05:25 AM

    We dont need Bob Moriarity here, or Chris Temple for that matter.

    Not after we were told there is no gold manipulation or we are supposed to trade accordingly.

    I still find that comment to be belittling, offensive and deceitful

      Apr 05, 2014 05:50 AM

      this time , I would agree, concerning “belittling,offensive, deceitful”
      I still like Bob….I use him as a gage…………….

      Apr 05, 2014 05:55 AM

      James, Long Run fell out of the National today. How can you ever pick a favourite? No serious reply needed! A

    Apr 05, 2014 05:02 AM

    QUESTION…… WALTER JONES……….what does he think about the TEA PARTY?

      Apr 05, 2014 05:57 AM

      Next weekend Show.

    Apr 05, 2014 05:20 AM


    Back with my wife in Tennessee
    When one day she called to me
    Say Virgil, quick, come see
    There goes Robert E. Lee
    Now I don’t mind choppin wood
    And I don’t care if my money’s no good
    Ya take what ya need and leave the rest
    But they should never have taken the very best

    The Band verse comes to mind when monetary mayhem inevitably regrettably causes good men to go to war.

    Apr 05, 2014 05:58 AM

    Zach Brown version, Esq?

    Apr 05, 2014 05:08 AM

    CFS, thank you for your comments on this blog string today. I’m late to the party having just listened to the show and read the blog. I believe the zero hedge article on the petrodollar to be quite significant. I think it has finally come. The world market is making open moves to dissolve it. I think we have even hurried it along lately. Doc may even be surprised how this may affect the PMs from here.

    Apr 05, 2014 05:28 AM

    Do we have the BLACK SWAN EVENT……………..PETRO GOLD for PETRO DOLLAR..

      Apr 05, 2014 05:39 AM

      Bob and Jerry,

      The upcoming week will certainly not tell the entire tale, but I think we may see a start.

        Apr 05, 2014 05:21 PM

        YOU should name the show……….GOLD SMUGGLING, OR BE SMUG WITH GOLD.
        First India…….now Iran……next Irish………

      Apr 05, 2014 05:27 PM

      Everyone here is banging on about how sanctions are beginning to hurt Russia. Even if Russia makes concessions to Ukraine over its proposed oil hikes, Gazprom going mostly east instead of west will hurt a great deal more.

        Apr 05, 2014 05:36 PM

        You bet it will, Reverend!

          Apr 05, 2014 05:52 PM

          AL & Andrew….Sanctions. Will NOT hurt Russia…If anything it will make Russia stronger…..The days of the US empire are numbered…..They have spent decades taking on the little fry……BIG MISTAKE TAKING ON JAWS….
          The petrodollar is dead…long live the petrodollar.

        Apr 05, 2014 05:56 PM

        They should cut the supply of gas to Europe and sell it to China.

          Apr 06, 2014 06:53 AM

          That certainly would make a statement, wouldn’t it Paul L!

    Apr 05, 2014 05:27 PM

    I think Friday was just normal profit taking when the S&P tested 1900. It was sharper than expected because the constant Fed interventions have prevented normal corrections for almost two years now.$SPX&p=D&yr=3&mn=6&dy=0&id=p62465295842&a=345546268&listNum=1

    Remember right before the Nasdaq embarked on it’s final parabolic move in 2000 it had two 10% sell offs. One of them occurred in 3 days. It was then followed by another 10% shakeout a couple of weeks later. If you remember everyone was calling a double top. The Nasdaq then embarked on a 34% move over the next 6 weeks into a final top at over 5000.$COMPQ&p=D&st=1999-07-05&en=2000-5-5&id=p09310187112&a=345557545&listNum=1

    This market probably isn’t going to top until the financials start to diverge from the general market. The banks are the life blood of the economy. When people start to miss mortgage payments the banks are the first to know. If businesses start missing loan payments or deposits start to shrink the banks are the canary in the coal mine. Watch the BKX. That will tell you when the economy is starting to get into trouble.$BKX&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p47678643092&a=345560374&listNum=1

      Apr 05, 2014 05:36 PM

      Thanks Gary

      Apr 05, 2014 05:01 PM

      Gary….With all due respects. MAN…Your are just guessing just like the rest of us….
      you can “NOT” predict anything in a manipulated market….But carry on SELLING your advice…..There is always going to be a buyer….After all everybody needs to earn a crust.

        Apr 05, 2014 05:11 PM

        I’m not guessing. I’m showing you what has occurred in the past and I’ve explained why it has happened. Do with it what you will.

          Apr 05, 2014 05:52 PM

          Gary….I can not believe you just posted that…even I could show what happened in the past….every man & his dog could quote history…..I am just saying …you or anyone alive can not make a prediction in what is going to happen in …(manipulated ) the markets…..I think you just shot yourself in the foot……
          I am just about to launch ….The Irish Fool Investment Letter…..Do you want to subscribe….20% discount if your the 1st enlister.

            Apr 05, 2014 05:03 PM


            Apr 06, 2014 06:53 AM

            And, the Premier Service is how much?

            By the way, would you like to advertise on our site. Our policy is 5 years in advance. (No checks, credit cards or iou’s)

            Apr 05, 2014 05:10 PM

            IRISH……….FAST FORWARD ….the gold eagle……..and put it on my account,,,,no, I mean AL’S or OWL’S account……..

            Apr 06, 2014 06:13 AM

            Well of course no one can predict the future. Any sane person understands that. But human nature never changes, so we tend to repeat the mistakes (and successes) of the past.

            The best anyone can do is find a set of tools that they are comfortable with and then follow their system. Will it work 100% of the time? Of course not. Any one who had a system that worked 100% of the time would be a billionaire within a year. The best in the business get it right 60-65% of the time.

            I prefer a system of cycle’s, sentiment, and a dash of technical analysis. That system allowed me to call the bottom in gold last year to the day right here on Al’s show.

            It allowed me to call the bottom on the Sept. FOMC meeting and lock in a 125% profit from call options that day.

            It allowed me to call almost the exact top on Sept. 3

            It allowed me to call the exact top on Mar. 17, again right here on Al’s show.

            Maybe it will get me in at the exact bottom in the coming weeks. We’ll have to see.

            My calls in the stock market over the last year and a half have been almost perfect.

            Yes these are manipulated markets and I try to take that into account. It’s what let me call the exact bottom in early Feb. in stocks as I didn’t think Yellen would want to face congress at the Humphrey Hawkins address and defend the taper if the market was falling.

            Clearly manipulation terminated the gold rally on Mar. 17 and that’s why I called Al & Cory that afternoon and suggested people take profits.

            Manipulation is why I’m worried that last summers low in gold may get broken this spring. It’s why I’m on the sidelines right now waiting to see what is going to happen during the next leg down. If the manipulation returns next week and drives gold down quickly to sub 1200 then all bets are off and traders need to be prepared for an attempt to break 1179. If it’s successful then gold is going to 1050 this spring.

            I definitely acknowledge that all markets are being manipulated and I try to put myself in the shoes of those doing the manipulating and understand their goals and the most opportune times for them to move the markets.

            Apr 06, 2014 06:02 AM

            Gary, you make so many calls on different time-frames that a few of them of course will be good ones in hindsight. You never make specific calls. Instead you say “I thiiiiink….”, “…could probably…”, and so on making very vague calls. Often they are contradictory on your different time-frames (daily cycle, monthly cycle, yearly cycle). So of course you can say in hindsight you called the exact bottom/exact top. Maybe you want to prove your statements with some references. I’m sure they won’t be too specific and very vague in nature. I’m also sure I can give you references where you stated the exact opposite.

            It’s just a cheap magician’s trick. We did that when we were kids. I can’t believe people are falling for it.

            Apr 06, 2014 06:05 AM

            Just a different way to communicate, hal.

            Agree or disagree, like him or hate him, Gary has a very large following.

            Apr 06, 2014 06:51 AM

            Mr. Irish, where do I wire the money?

            Apr 07, 2014 07:53 AM

            Gary, I’m still waiting for the references! 🙂

        Apr 06, 2014 06:39 AM

        Please irishtony, stop that Gary bashing. We have to feel sorry for Gary as Korelin Economics didn’t ask for his so-called “insights” this weekend. Which I personally understand because Gary is telling the same stuff over and over again anyways.

        It’s always funny when Gary says “I think…”, “…probably…”, “if this then that” (often also double and triple ifs) and then a week later says “As I correctly predicted and expected!”. I could laugh my backside off every time.

          Apr 06, 2014 06:04 AM

          We do try to provide entertainment, hal!

            Apr 06, 2014 06:26 AM

            I don’t like or dislike Gary. Actually I like to listen to his interviews and how he is selling his points. Funny somehow! I guess there are a lot of guys here who really hate Gary. Most likely they lost a lot of money listening to him and taking his views or so-called “insights” as investment advice. One shouldn’t do that mistake.

            I just wanted to post my comments as Gary was showing off how he precisely called some tops and bottoms. Very cheesy.

            Entertainmentwise Gary is ok, though. 🙂

      Apr 05, 2014 05:01 PM

      Good information Gary…Thank you…..

    Apr 05, 2014 05:59 PM

    Good article on the extreme undervaluation of gold stocks at the current gold price:

    Apr 06, 2014 06:55 AM

    I think Chris Temple said it right today. The gold bulls are looking tired. They have simply run out of stories to tell and there is little remaining to charge up the troops. Gold just can’t seem to get propulsion lately and all the rationalizations of the past have proven to be meaningless in predicting better price behavior.

    We need a new narrative.

    One that better fits the model of what is taking place and maybe provides a more honest assessment of the market dynamics so that gold investors can approach the subject with more confidence.

    Most of you have already heard the most popular themes that have been trotted out month after month. None lived up to their billing as the key that would open the door to driving metals higher.

    Whether it was the theory that German gold repatriation troubles were going to move markets by exposing the absence of gold in Fort Knox or the accusations leveled of a dying US dollar, bulls have been repeatedly disappointed in the outcomes. The dollar is alive and well in fact. If anything, it is getting stronger.

    And we all know the other disappointing pop motifs of this assets hard luck story by heart already. The Federal Reserves aggressive printing of money was sure to doom our society and possibly the world once global finance was collapsed. That did not pan out well.

    Then there were the ever popular fears of an impending hyperinflation, accusations of backroom market rigging, the close scrutiny of COT reports that showed a drain and the supply and demand fundamentals that assured us gold was running thin on the ground. None lived up to the billing. Gold went flaccid in their wake.

    And of course the grand daddy of all the great theories….that all the gold was surely moving from East to West, seemed the most compelling of all. If anything would move markets it would be a serious shortage of physical driven by those metal hungry Asians. The only problem with that hair-brained idea was that gold fell all the time it was being promoted and supply actually expanded!

    I actually had a hand in crafting that last myth when I dreamed up the term “West to East” and wrote a story on another site wherein one day China would have all the gold and the rest of us would be left sucking air. It was a narrative written for my own amusement of course (and it is a preposterous reason to move metals), but the idea caught fire.

    In no time I was reading deep articles about the “West to East” gold drain as though it were the greatest threat to our Western centric developed market economies and banking system and how those tricky Asians were sneaking up from behind. I could not stop laughing.

    We were surely doomed! Seriously, it was just a joke folks. Chinese gold buying is nothing more than a form of Central bank diversification and a means for Chinese citizens to invest in something other than real estate. They needed an outlet anyway. Nothing more to it than that.

    Indeed, the Chinese have been laggards in the past and needed to do a little catch up where the amount of gold as expressed by their holdings of foreign exchange are concerned. They were seriously overweight Treasuries as well to the extent some were calling it a bubble. So we can all relax again. Their gold target is a very reasonable 1 or 2% of FX reserves, not 100% of global supply!

    So here we are. Still struggling. Still waiting for relief. Gold is again in retreat during its seasonal slow period and no good monetary thuggery appears to be threatening to lift its spirits or price. Inflation remains quite stable if not tame, stocks are heady but still rising, the US is making a slow and tortuous recovery and now QE, the well spring of gold-bugs enthusiasm, is slowly being extinguished.

    It could be finished as early as this summer.

    All the charts and graphs and rubbing of lucky stones has not made a whits difference to the bear trend in gold that persists. There is no current narrative that looks strong enough that it might fire up the investment world and send gold skyward anytime soon either. Except amongst the most die-hard of fans, sentiment is about as bad as it has ever been.

    So why do we torture ourselves with all the deep analysis that amounts to beans? I really wish I knew. What is clear to me though is that what Chris mentioned is getting to the heart of the gold worlds dilemma. We have run out of stories. The best ones have all been used up already and amounted to little more than fluff talk while nothing more persuasive is on the horizon to change minds or hearts.

    Barring a complete unknown or a Black Swan event it looks like gold will continue to suffer on the fringes of the investment world. We await a natural turning point in the cyclical trend and a final washout in prices that will cleanse the rubble while delivering hundreds of suffering Juniors into the jaws of a much needed death.

    Goldman looks to have called this market most accurately. If anything, they may have been compassionate in suggesting gold will bottom at 1050 during 2014. As our own QE winds down it looks that gold will continue to face headwinds. More ominous and worrisome for the bulls though is that a European QE could be the sound of a death rattle for metals if the usual Euro/gold correlation holds or gains more strength over time.

    And that, my friends, is why you might temper your enthusiasm. It is gentler on the pocketbook.

      Apr 06, 2014 06:20 AM

      the” new narrative”………Is Russia, Iran, Pakastan……

        Apr 06, 2014 06:23 AM

        Those would be countries. Not a reason to buy anything or expect price increases.

          Apr 06, 2014 06:49 PM

          Have you read anything about the countries that I mentioned this week……?
          Each has a story concerning gold….so, I think it plays into price increase or price decrease .

            Apr 06, 2014 06:17 PM

            narrative………any account of connected events……..dictionary .com

            Apr 06, 2014 06:50 PM

            I see bits and pieces, Gerry. They mostly lead to hypothesizing about supply/demand factors based on domestic policy changes so I ignore them because those are amongst the weakest of reasons for gold or silver to move. Especially at a time like this. I would be quick to add though that back in the late 70’s as we were approaching the silver peak the Hunts corner became pretty significant for market psychology. Supply of physical really was drying up at that time. At least in North America. Bags of junk coins could not be had unless you were connected. Bars came with stupidly high premiums. Euphoria swept the market and then just a year later it was all over. Suddenly we were swimming in the stuff again. Coin shops were closing up. Few of them were willing to buy at any price once the market had burst because nobody knew where the bottom would be. You were viewed with suspicion the moment you stepped inside a coin shop. Some just shoo’d you away dismissively. What had been so desired and in some cases out of reach to all the latecomers was suddenly available at a great discount to price. Coins actually fell below face value in some cases! Nobody saw that coming and plenty of folks regretted getting involved at all. I mean, the bottom literally just fell right out and you could not sell anymore or recover losses. So much for market liquidity. Crazy times. Anyway….unless we go parabolic again and the wide public gets the fever (I mean all over the world) I won’t give supply/demand much thought because it does not move this market during normal times.

            Apr 06, 2014 06:55 PM

            And by the way, that was a gentle reminder to sell once euphoria sets in again. You don’t want to be the bagholder. Take your proceeds off the top and buy something that is at the bottom. You will get a great chance to buy back into metals once they retrace their big wave up. Its just a cycle……run with it and make some money.

            Apr 07, 2014 07:04 AM

            good day Bird………….please see additional notes below………thanks j………..

        Apr 06, 2014 06:03 AM

        You forgot China.

      Apr 06, 2014 06:01 AM

      Morning Bidman,

      Well written narrative, I must say. Thank you.

      I think that the reason there is a counter argument to yours is simply that if financial/economic (I guess I should say) holds true eventually we could see some major collapses around the world. Will that actually happen? I nor anyone else really knows, but the one thing that some of us believe is that it should happen. And that “it should happen comment” is at the heart of most gold enthusiasts’ argument.

      What do I think? I diversify and try to cover all bases for myself and my family.

        Apr 06, 2014 06:42 PM

        You are welcome Al. Glad you appreciated my viewpoint. I do believe gold has an excellent future despite my near term concerns. I am in agreement with the boys that some softness lies ahead but that an eventual recovery will please all. It is my view though that the recovery period will likely be longer than most here want. So no change in the big picture other than how we see timing play out.

          Apr 06, 2014 06:38 PM

          BIRD……….there is a” big picture” change………..the story on IRAN, AND PAKASTAN, are “new game changers”………(as I mentioned above ,and below your narrative)
          1′.Iran is trading with Russia with the rubles,and not dollars, for oil, and gold is involved.
          2.Pakastan, has told the IMF, that it is not going to give up their gold, in exchange for
          any paper.
          I mentioned them in my brief post, but, perhaps you have not read the stories….or my input was to brief and not complete.(sorry)……..anyways…….thanks for reading.

            Apr 07, 2014 07:10 AM

            We have not mentioned the several deaths of bankers….but,
            Over the week end………
            One died, by jumping off building in Ny….was a banker with JPM(read at Sinclair’s site)
            AND and entire family knocked off, with father being a high level banker.(heard that one on PBS this morning)
            The string of deaths exceeds 20……………….best…………j…..thanks for reading

            Apr 07, 2014 07:13 AM

            I think in stead of BLACK SWANS………we have the BLACK DEATH LIST

            Apr 07, 2014 07:19 AM

            follow up……….I mentioned above, on the family that was knocked off, that also, can be read at Sinclair’s site…………..

            Apr 07, 2014 07:20 AM

            I think I am staying LLLLLLONG……………

    Apr 06, 2014 06:24 AM

    And that is why I am going short this month.

    Apr 06, 2014 06:24 AM

    Nice to hear from you Bird, I think gold will drop too, that scares me as im usually wrong.
    Im not so sure of it I intend to short tho.
    I don’t think we see it go much below $1000.
    Just my guess of course but that’s the level the Chinese govt told their people to start buying.

      Apr 06, 2014 06:07 AM

      Do remember what our guests have said. “A bounce here and then down for a couple of months”!

      We will see.

    Apr 06, 2014 06:37 PM

    The COT report for this week saw the commercials (so-called smart money) maintain their positions.

    Apr 06, 2014 06:06 PM

    Looks to me a lot of people are throwing the towel in for gold.

    Everyone seems to be reciting the same mantra now – gold is going down.

    I think its time I take the opposite point of view

    Come 7

      Apr 07, 2014 07:11 AM

      Oh dear….I just looked, James. It is not just gold….this is different and you best be on guard. The whole market is down INCLUDING gold and that tells us something worrisome may be in the works. There could be some margin calls taking place forcing gold redemptions to raise cash or alternatively there are guys just dumping gold to take profits on year to date gains as the market softens. Ordinarily we have been seeing gold rise when equities fell. If that inverse relationship is broken we might be heading into a stock correction this week. Nobody would be surprised to see a 5 or 10% selloff. It is overdue but not easy to predict. Last week was hinting at such a drop. Momentum stocks have been getting badly mauled. I have been telling you I think gold will get murdered this month but I was less certain on the general equities. You might want to be careful now if you are exposed. The yellow flags are out for a bigger correction.

      Apr 07, 2014 07:20 AM

      Just looked at the Dow. Gee, I hate the way that chart looks. It bumped its head on 16,500 three times and then fell back. No panic yet but if it takes another dive tomorrow you might want to assess your positions. GDX and GDXJ are both down along with the broad averages. On a brighter note the Canadian dollar is rising and that is suggestive of commodities and crude beginning to rise.