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Learn to Trust Your Own Financial Judgment

ker
April 9, 2014

Keep this goal in mind as you read on: solid income and growth with minimal risk and no catastrophic losses. Just tuck it in the back of your head.

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Discussion
11 Comments
    Apr 09, 2014 09:14 PM

    AL SELL YOUR HOMES REALEST A DAY COMING !!!!!!!!! DISS ISS INVESTMENT ADVISE 88888888

    Apr 09, 2014 09:18 PM

    Learn to Trust……………
    Let’s see………DID ANYONE NOTICE……..JPM………..
    HAD 1300 DAYS IN A ROW WITHOUT A LOSS, in the market………….
    article at Sinclair’s site today.

    Apr 09, 2014 09:14 PM

    Trusting my own judgement has kept me from buying shares in any company sponsoring this site. I have avoided catastrophic losses like PEM or AMY or RPM or XRC

    Apr 10, 2014 10:26 AM

    Well basically that article said what we all know already. You need to figure it out for yourself. Teach yourself. Learn. Study the markets. Don’t fall for snake oil. Be wary of hidden agendas. Be equally suspicious of the public statistics and private advisories like those offered by newsletter writers who have a product to sell.

    It is the age old wisdom of “buyer beware” that must be kept in mind at all times and common sense will play a big role. But obviously we cannot feel some doubt when even the most common of themes revolving around inflation and deflation cannot be agreed upon by the best known experts on the markets.

    So after reading an article like the one above you are just left scratching your head again and feeling like the whole investment sphere is a crapshoot with such divisive sets of opinions and concerns.

    Some of us still think we know what to do though. Despite all the conflicting messages there are indeed good opportunities in our opinion especially if we have time to follow them up and monitor them. Being diversified is absolutely essential.

    Avoiding overpriced assets is a no brainer. Above all, we need to keep the basic investing principles in mind and this includes understanding the risks posed by inadequate collateral backing assets we might like to buy. At a time when it should be obvious that most common of popular asset classes are seriously inflated already and stand a better chance of falling in value than rising further we must be disciplined and stick to a regimen that will weed out those that have a higher probability of leading to heartache than wealth.

    A system is needed. One that helps us make decisions without emotion and not leave us subject to making the worst of mistakes no matter how much we might desire a purchase. Happily resource shares and precious metals as well as energy, some commodities and agricultural investments continue to offer good value at a time when some momentum stocks are so bubbly they approach the worst excesses prior to the dot-com bust.

    So there is obviously value out there. Something is always down while another is up. It pays to be patient too and not be afraid to stay in cash if you just cannot make a decision. And when the time does come to pull the trigger we all hope we have enough sense to buy what is well priced with a great opportunity for upside growth and avoid those herd based themes that have absorbed the time and attention of the great majority of investors.

    What goes up will certainly come down again. So lets all be sure that we do some positioning contra cyclically to this overinflated, overbought and bloated group of assets that are sure to cost their owners more heartburn than happy dances.

    When the next rotation comes (and it always does) we will want to be owning what is now out of favour and/or be short that which is destined to fall. That usually requires good instincts, some guts and a willingness to position ahead of the crowd because contrary plays always feel risky when you are the lonely sheep making them.

    Just don’t ask me what you should do because I won’t offer investment advice. You have to figure it out for yourself!