Weekend Show – Sat 21 Jun, 2014

Politics and the Junior Resource Sector

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Featuring:
Al KorelinCory FleckBob MoriartyGlen DownsJeff DeistRick Ackerman
Richard PostmaChris TempleBrent CookJayant BhandariYale SimpsonDan Oliver
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Comments:
  1. On June 21, 2014 at 1:47 am,
    Andrew de Berry (Rev) says:

    Right on Bob M!

    ‘Most Americans find the government’s lies preferable to the truth. They don’t want to be unplugged from the Matrix. The truth is too uncomfortable for emotionally and mentally weak Americans’.
    Paul Craig Roberts writing in ‘How America was lost’.

    Speaking of which Hilary Clinton stands to be undone by Benghazi…yes?http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2014/06/18/benghazi-victims-mother-has-a-blunt-message-for-hillary-clinton/

    • On June 21, 2014 at 4:33 am,
      Bobby says:

      I will be surprised if Clinton II is not elected.

      • On June 21, 2014 at 11:35 am,
        Al Korelin says:

        More and more are starting to disagree, Bobby. At least in my neck of the woods.

      • On June 22, 2014 at 6:29 pm,
        Big Al says:

        I am not in that camp quite yet, Bird!

        This is in spite of the fact that Jeff agrees with you.

    • On June 21, 2014 at 11:38 am,
      Al Korelin says:

      Terrifying Reverend!

    • On June 21, 2014 at 1:45 pm,
      Steven says:

      Andrew you are correct and what is worse the problem afflicts america’s allies as well.
      There is a particular world view that is almost a law that must be up held and defended against the truth at all costs. Most won’t see the light until they see a flash of light and then the bones in their hands and finally they find themselves before God to give an account of their lives. The way the world is going that day may not be far off.

      • On June 22, 2014 at 8:13 pm,
        Big Al says:

        Not such a far fetched idea Steven.

  2. On June 21, 2014 at 4:31 am,
    Bobby says:

    Outsiders sure love to bash we Americans.

    • On June 21, 2014 at 5:08 am,
      CFS says:

      Such easy targets.

    • On June 21, 2014 at 11:36 am,
      Al Korelin says:

      There are things to bash Bobby, but the morally strong will win in the end.

      • On June 21, 2014 at 1:43 pm,
        J........the Long.............ootb says:

        I agree …………

  3. On June 21, 2014 at 5:14 am,
    CFS says:
  4. On June 21, 2014 at 5:22 am,
    Tim Winston says:

    I feel that as far as anything that can be done to change the way the country is headed we the people can not do anything! Voting is a joke. The powers that be are too powerful! It is really frustrating and to be honest I feel powerless! This is completly crazy! The country is gone! Trust is gone. Morals are gone. Everything that is good and righteous is gone!

    • On June 21, 2014 at 6:24 am,
      Chris says:

      I sure tend to agree with you. One small victory was when Eric Cantor got beat in Virginia, but the bottom line is there are more than 50% takers so we lose period. The “forth turning” is well under way………………

      • On June 22, 2014 at 4:35 pm,
        Gordon Hammerud says:

        So sad, but what Tim writes is exactly how I see it and feel.

    • On June 21, 2014 at 7:49 am,
      JOE says:

      Tim , I respect your opinion you are demonstrating my recommendation I have often voiced to many Americans ” QUITE VOTING AND ENCOURAGING THESE POLITICIANS ” . My motto is : Give no consent to government . Why because they will Always Abuse There Powers Period . The founders warned us and tried to shape a limited , limited Government , but as soon as people found a way to vote there selves benefits , steal other peoples wealth and punish others they don’t like through there politicians , morals, responsibilities and the right to live for your own sake went out the window. Just remember the best thing you can do is Laugh at these politicians , but never give the your consent !

      • On June 21, 2014 at 5:01 pm,
        irishtony says:

        TIM…CHRIS…& JOE Welcome to KER…..Great to read sanity from you three, Keep posting….Please, so long as there are people like you, then there is hope.

        • On June 22, 2014 at 8:38 pm,
          Big Al says:

          My sentiments exactly, Mr Irish!

  5. On June 21, 2014 at 5:24 am,
    CFS says:

    I am going to take an old computer to Goodwill and get a receipt for my donation to prove I have recycled a computer. Just in case.

    • On June 21, 2014 at 6:10 am,
      Dick Tracy says:

      CFS, make sure you erase the hard drive, I’m sure you would but my neighbors routinely put their old computers by the curbside without ever giving this a thought.

      • On June 21, 2014 at 9:58 am,
        Birdman says:

        If you want a hard drive really clean you need to format it with a sledgehammer before putting in a fire. That usually makes sure its spotless before recycling.

  6. On June 21, 2014 at 5:29 am,
    Tim Winston says:

    Our leaders are thieves, heretics,liars,slick,crazy sociopaths,and are leadind this country down a evil road yet they have their ass covered!

    • On June 21, 2014 at 6:29 am,
      Chris says:

      Amen………..& people who think the 2016 elections can make a difference don’t realize by then it will be waaaaay too late. And small changes this Fall elections will all be vetoed by you know who.

  7. On June 21, 2014 at 6:36 am,
    Dick Tracy says:

    Without Bob M’s commentary The Korelin Economic Report would not be a great show, that is not meant to offend anyone but rather a compliment to the way this program has evolved.

  8. On June 21, 2014 at 6:52 am,
    Glenfidish says:

    Disappointed gary was not on. A talent like gary should be on this weekend show.

  9. On June 21, 2014 at 6:56 am,
    CFS says:

    Someone on this forum mention he followed Jim Dines.
    Remember a year or two ago Jim was pushing 3D printing.
    Look at it now.
    http://innovation.uk.msn.com/design/the-3d-printer-that-can-build-a-house-in-24-hours
    Interestingly, they are using the technology in China, building houses in Concrete For $5,000. Another firm is using plastics, which is slightly more expensive.

    • On June 21, 2014 at 7:14 am,
      Dick Tracy says:

      3D printers can now be purchased for under $1000, that’s for a basic one that still can do many things like manufacturing orthotics.

      Jim Dines bills himself as the original silver bug and gold bug, he was also one of the very first people to jump on the rare earth push twelve years ago and hence he calls himself the original rare earth bug as well. Dines is a leader no doubt about that.

      • On June 21, 2014 at 8:06 am,
        Tom says:

        3D printers will make life easier for billions but at the same time billions of jobs will be lost…it will be the ultimate gift/curse!

    • On June 21, 2014 at 11:03 am,
      Lawrence says:

      I cannot see the difference between 3D printing and Computer-Aided Manufacturing as we have been doing since 1980s. The only thing I can see is that people gave it a more fancy name. I was involved in the software development for drafting and design in the 90s. When you add the control and equipment parts of the engineering, it is so called 3D printing. I feel that the 3D printing might be cacthy name but it is grossly misleading. It is actually a small plant to build a specific type of objects. When you create the printer for printing a house, it cannot be used to manufacture tanks, for example. It does not resemble anything like printer which you can print any type of drawing and design on paper.

      • On June 21, 2014 at 9:22 pm,
        Tom says:

        The difference is a fan blade on an airplane engine that used to take 44 weeks to manufacture now takes 4

        • On June 21, 2014 at 11:50 pm,
          Lawrence says:

          You still did not tell me the difference. I was an engineer for a few years. You have to show me why Computer aided manufacturing needs 44 weeks and 3D printing needs only 4 hours. 44 weeks is awful long time for any automated process. Can you let me know the technical difference? I can understand it myself if you can show me that.

      • On June 22, 2014 at 6:17 pm,
        Big Al says:

        Thanks Lawrence

    • On June 21, 2014 at 11:08 am,
      Lawrence says:

      By the way, I mentioned that I follow James Dines a few days ago. I put a large portion of my investment in gold and silver, uranium and rare earth. I got one 3D printing share in China but I cannot find any good ones. I am not a big fan of 3D printing even I am strongly in favour of computer aided design and manufacturing.

      • On June 22, 2014 at 6:18 pm,
        Big Al says:

        How have you done following James, Lawrence?

  10. On June 21, 2014 at 7:35 am,
    CFS says:

    That was the week that was….
    A better summary of the past week:
    http://www.caseyresearch.com/gsd/criticalreads

  11. On June 21, 2014 at 7:55 am,
    Matt says:

    The president is hand picked and the Secretary of State is placed by the monied elite to serve their interests in respect to foreign policy.
    Been that way for decades.
    There is no America but an illusion of what once was and could be.

    • On June 21, 2014 at 8:07 am,
      Tom says:

      3D printing will finish off America…your black swan

      • On June 21, 2014 at 8:15 am,
        Dick Tracy says:

        The new technology will not only take jobs away in America but just imagine what it will do to China and the rest of the developing world. Don’t forget about driverless cars, the increasing use of robots and artificial intelligence it is all too mind boggling………!!

        • On June 21, 2014 at 11:37 am,
          Lawrence says:

          AI (Artificial Intellegence not Mr. Korelin) is the trend of the future even though it sufferred many setbacks in the past.

        • On June 21, 2014 at 1:55 pm,
          Lawrence says:

          China is pursuing 3D printing and other advanced technology fast. I can see many these companies showing up in the last several years there but I am not ready to put my money in these companies yet since they are risking. China gets huge number of science and engineering graduates every year, so it is easier to find qualified people and setup manufacturing facilities there. Chinese parents are putting a lot of pressure on their children to get higher education in technology. Even the admission rate to university is over 30%, the competition to university is still fierce. Its low cost of production environment has not disappearing but moved to less developed regions. Now the low skill city residences have trouble finding employment even there are plenty of low paid jobs available. It is mostly taken by migrant workers from poorer regions.

  12. On June 21, 2014 at 8:29 am,
    HEAVYHITTER says:

    All my personal analysis of a very long list of factors driving precious metals
    sharply higher in the months ahead is IMVHO is almost guaranteed to take your
    breath away. Prices are going to go to astronomical heights in just several months.
    Everything is lined up perfectly and my work is proprietary information with 30 years
    invested in the research.

    Not investment advise but the only sure way to make a fortune is to keep the fingers off
    the key board trading it. Its going to get so volatile and even though prices sky rocket
    the traders will come away with losses being whipsawed once again in a big run in gold.

    ( these are my current opinions and not going to debate it. No messages please. Thank you)

    Not to be construed as investment advise.

  13. On June 21, 2014 at 8:33 am,
    CFS says:

    Tom, I’m no Sarah Palin. I don’t read everything, but I do read a lot.
    I’m not going to post URLs in this forum, because I do not want this site closed down.
    The next black swan will, in my opinion, be a series of Islamic Jihad inspired attacks in the US, Canada and Europe.
    There is a very heavy recruiting campaign going on right now in social media sites attempting to recruit islamic-faith youths who have US, Canadian or European passports. (i.e. who can travel without problem to various countries) to take the fight to America, Canada, Europe, specifically England and France. (I have not seen much propaganda in German.)
    If you don’t worry about a knock on your door sometime or having your actions monitored by the NSA, google “Let’s go Jihad”. You will see glamorously produced material of cars being blown up , etc., with a catchy tune in the background of let’s go jihad.
    If you dislike being searched before you can get on a plane, you ain’t seen nothing yet.
    After the coming bombings, the economy will be so hampered by security concerns,it will cease to function.
    I just hope the NSA will prove its cost worth it, but I don’t feel it has a chance of stopping all attacks.

    • On June 21, 2014 at 10:19 am,
      Wayne says:

      Please read/study the Bible. What can a man give in exchange for his soul? What can it profit a man if he should gain the whole world yet lose his very soul?

      • On June 22, 2014 at 5:33 pm,
        Steven says:

        No need to gain the whole world. A nice piece of it would do fine.

    • On June 22, 2014 at 8:43 am,
      CFS says:

      Here is a 28 minute BBC radio summary of ISIS

      http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b048ncws

      • On June 22, 2014 at 9:23 pm,
        Big Al says:

        Many thanks Professor!

  14. On June 21, 2014 at 8:34 am,
    Matt says:

    Life does not work that way,HH.
    You are going to get flamed alive when taking the dictatorial role.

    • On June 21, 2014 at 8:49 am,
      HEAVYHITTER says:

      Suit yourself Matt. Its the very reason I would never release my
      hard work, fruits of my labor in the analysis to people here that
      have no scruples.

      NO, PEOPLE LIKE YOU BURN DOWN THEIR OWN BRIDGES.

      You couldn’t discover the keys I have to the financial markets
      if you lived 10 lives.

      Keep up the good work.

      • On June 21, 2014 at 9:19 am,
        Matt says:

        HH,I pay for advice that I use in making my decisions.
        You are not willing to share anything that can be of a benefit to others but state you have the keys to do so.
        Why don’t you try helping others if you have such advanced knowledge instead of berating others that tire of your alleged superiority?

        • On June 21, 2014 at 9:37 am,
          HEAVYHITTER says:

          Matt, its not about superiority.

          I don’t throw my pearls out to charletons or ingrats.

          My anaylsis can’t be found anywhere that’s more
          accurate than precise. It can’t be purchased.
          Its my fruits and labor over 30 years. Not yours.

          ITS NOT YOUR BUSINESS.

          Go make something else your business. Its not
          with me. My hard work for 30 years in not your
          business. I will share it as I see fit. Not before.

          AND NEVER WITH YOU.

          My disclaimers were placed in the post and the
          rest is a free gift.

          You don’t like it, find something better to do
          than burn down bridges. Very unproductive.

          • On June 21, 2014 at 12:02 pm,
            HEAVYHITTER says:

            Also, the best analysis in the gold trade here is Gary Savage
            at this current time. Recommend subscribing to his valuable
            work.

            As far as posters on this site Matthew is in the 10 spot here.
            He’s the best of the best. He too, called the low here a few
            weeks ago and was buying here as I was in Dec, 2013 where
            I backed up a huge fleet of trucks 400 % long.

            Maybe Matthew can enlighten the board as to the current
            situation in the gold trade. Don’t know what that is, but know
            so far he is making a ton of ching $$.

            If you want help that’s the best advise I can offer on this board.

            Not investment advise only my opinion. Nothing more. No debates.
            Please…do your own D&D. Thank you.

          • On June 21, 2014 at 1:00 pm,
            Matt says:

            HH.in actuality I agree with your overall thesis from my skills, experience and information I receive that are all invaluable.
            However,this is a discussion board and you don’t want to discuss or share but dictate what you think.
            You are not helping or convincing anybody of anything being a cheerleader without any factual substance behind it other than blowing your horn.
            The pm sector & participants have been obliterated so try to be specific when you get on the soapbox or give it a rest.IMVHO,of course.

          • On June 22, 2014 at 6:35 pm,
            Big Al says:

            Thanks Matt.

            Heavy, don’t get angry. This is a discussion board.

          • On June 21, 2014 at 2:37 pm,
            HEAVYHITTER says:

            Matt, this is a discussion. Agreed.

            However, you are implementing rules that don’t apply.

            I never saw a sign posted. ….please obey Matts rules.

            If I want to confid my indepth analysis to you, I will.

            Now if you will excuse me. I want away from any rules
            that you seem to assume exist.

            This is not your site and nor do any of your rules apply.

            END. Stop wasting my time.

          • On June 22, 2014 at 6:48 am,
            glenfidish says:

            HH, hopefully someday I can be in the top 10 as well :). Im a new comer but since ive been here ive done well. I also agree with Matt in the sense that if you know something why not share a chart or two? Sharing is caring and you seem like a good guy!

            I also agree that gary’s work followed by docs is second to none.

            By the way does anyone in here including hh, al, cory, matt, bird, etc know exactly what type of cycle system Garys uses? I would really like if that could be shared and where one could study it? Seems there is no other person that follows that cycle the way he does that I know of.

            Thank you

          • On June 22, 2014 at 9:20 pm,
            Big Al says:

            He has explained it a number of time and will do it again.

          • On June 23, 2014 at 12:17 pm,
            HEAVYHITTER says:

            Gary is in the 10 spot. Doc. can be too wishy washy.
            Does too much nibbling and he’s already way off thinking
            prices would move lower. Big loser. Hardly any skin in the
            game. Can’t make fortunes like that.

  15. On June 21, 2014 at 8:59 am,
    Dennis M. O'Neil says:

    Today’s WSJ Section C features a piece “The War that Shaped Our World: WWI at 100” while reading the lengthy piece full of factual tid-bits and scary statistics.
    As I read the piece I could not help but conclude the events that led to WWI are similar to the conflicts we face today. It could be said the events of one hundred years ago were similar to the events of two hundred years ago when world dealt with The War of 1812 and Napoleon.
    Why is it that men continue down the same paths somehow thinking that their generations human nature is somehow different then the human nature of history?

    • On June 21, 2014 at 11:13 am,
      Birdman says:

      Patterns at work, Dennis. Some, like the one you mention run in the many decades. Anyone who follows it knows we will deflate (not inflate) at the termination of this stage of the debt/credit cycle and it is simply because there is not sufficient energy remaining to push another round of investment and consumption.

      There are clearly limits to how far assets can be pushed up before everything about them amounts to a form of tax and little remains of discretionary income. Wealth under such circumstances can be fleeting as we know factually that all bubbles will eventually revert to their means.

      In many places in Canada now the cost of housing alone can exceed 50% of income. In places like Vancouver it rises above nosebleed levels of 80%. That is how you destroy an economy that is consumption based when the majority of after tax earned income goes to one single class of purchase (mortgages and rents).

      The outcome of course is that other parts of the economy get strangled and eventually unemployment rises thus dampening the asset inflation cycle. We can see this at work across much of the developed world though. It is hardly just a Canadian issue. So it should be obvious to anyone reading the tea leaves that asset (housing and real estate) inflation has a dark side once the party is over.

      At its heart is debt and the obligations taken on when times were better. The curse really arises though when the assets begin to deflate and leave debtors with financial obligations that can sometimes be in excess of the value of the properties or where debtors find themselves in a position where they are not gainfully employed and cannot adequately service those debts.

      So the combination of falling employment, assets in decline, very low rates of real savings and excessive debt pretty much damn a country to a deflation/recession cycle once it gets underway. I am not talking about garden variety recession cycles of course. And it is certainly not obvious to all that such long run debt cycles cannot be repaired by simply driving up the price of fuel and vegetables in order to meet popularly accepted formulas for inflation such as the 2% targets most developed nations embrace as a minimum.

      Combine rising taxation to the list of woes that those who live under asset declines suffer and the situation can feel quite miserable. And the reason taxes will be rising at such a time is because governments themselves are under stress to maintain program spending and social benefits at a time when revenues are in falling.

      That is all fine and dandy if you can run a budget deficit of course but that is not the position most countries find themselves in today and indeed most are already spent out and working overtime just to roll over existing bond issues. Debts are excessive. Debts in some cases are already unrepayable.

      The blind insistence of some people in the hard money and gold camps that inflation will play the bigger role in major economies in the future seems misguided from this perspective. While it can be agreed we are indeed seeing signs of inflation breaking out it should also be understood that this is more akin to the dying embers of efforts to push one more credit cycle than it is to a resurgence of price growth that will eventually lead to wage gains and economic balance once more.

      On the contrary, we now face a time when most assets. not just real estate, is reaching a peak. The collision of all these (stocks, bonds and real estate) climaxing somewhat simultaneously leads me to believe that the real refuge will be in cash as the unwind begins and collateral is impaired across the spectrum.

      But I sure do not expect anybody here to buy these arguments when the fixation on monetary easing (printing) leading to inflation seems so obvious. I contend that asset inflation brought on by that very same easing is in fact our assurance of a deflationary outcome as we approach tops in all markets together.

      Bonds, stocks and real estate are all destined to come unwound more or less together in my scenario and will do so as interest rates inevitably rise. As they do, what will remain is a stinking pile of debt that must be defaulted on before we can embark on the first tentative steps in the new cycle that will follow.

      Only those who crystallize their assets to cash before the peak will cross to the other side in good shape.

      • On June 21, 2014 at 11:44 am,
        Birdman says:

        Sorry if that was poorly written but I just ripped it off the top of my head. It is a second response against arguments on this site that favour an inflation outcome over one that is obviously going to end in a second great deflation. This has only been forestalled in my opinion. We had the first wave in the US as housing crashed in 06 but that bubble had been reflated before prices fell back to the mean. Meanwhile, much of the rest of the world has still not seen its Waterloo even as banks teetered on the edge and public debts threatened to swamp the boats of many nations. The PIIGS have not become solvent by any means during this time nor have the problems gone away. Their day will return. As sovereigns begin to experience difficulty rolling over debt in the next period we will see stresses added to other countries that are just barely hanging on. Repeat offenders like Argentina seem to be leading the way. I might not worry under other circumstances when the worlds economies were stronger but in a time when currency devaluations dominate, interest rates are deliberately low just to stave off bankruptcy and global trade is in retreat it is easy to conclude more trouble is on the way. How some people see a period of inflation that might sustain itself at this time is beyond me. This kind of inflation is just another tax and a burden so its lifespan will be short.

        • On June 21, 2014 at 12:22 pm,
          Dennis M. O'Neil says:

          I understand your excessive debt argument for deflation.
          However, your detailed layout fails to include the monetary response from a tailwind central bank.
          My view of future events includes all of your findings. However, in the face of deflation I see a monetary response that weakens the currency enough to offset deflation. How do you tax deflation?

          • On June 21, 2014 at 2:20 pm,
            Birdman says:

            Thanks Dennis. I also appreciate what you are getting at from the point of view that a large monetary response should under normal circumstances result in inflation. The missing ingredient though is demand for credit and most particularly demand for credit associated with consumption. A second component is gross indebtedness which at this time is historically high by all measures.

            What I am looking at to help determine which is the real hazard to our economic health are charts of debt, money velocity, interest rates, employment and money supply amongst others. For example, the last time we were even close to current levels of debt as a percentage of GDP was in the early days of the Great Depression itself.

            The United States last saw a peak for that metric during 1933 when debt to GDP hit an incredible 300% after having gone parabolic following the crash of 1929. For perspective, we are now sitting at a debt/GDP figure closer to 400% after a similar parabolic move that began in the mid 1990’s.

            That chart looks to me suggestively like we will see something closer to 500% before it completes the cycle and means we are not even near to being out of the woods where deflation threats still rule the lands.

            Another chart is velocity of money. Similar to the chart mentioned above, it is notable that current rates of velocity are approaching those only seen during the last Great Depression. At that time the low point was reached when velocity fell to 1.17 in 1932 which marked the onset of that stressful period.

            We are currently seeing velocity around 1.5 during June 2014 but the rate is still falling and tells me we will probably hit the 1932 low point or fall below it within a years time. This part of the cycle cannot have yet completed despite the fact that M3 money supply is still on the rise. This is one of the key areas where QE has failed to reignite our economy.

            So those two items above should be cause for serious concern.

            We need to keep in mind at all times that the depression was marked by a collapse in asset values and subsequent defaults on debt. Those worries are growing at this time and threaten to destabilize the global economy as the effect was ultimately manifest in sovereign debt failures.

            On the domestic front though, home prices plummeted up to 85% in some districts. Homes and lands could not be sold at any price in many cases. Unemployment raged. Farms were lost across the country and millions of people were displaced as a result. Foreclosure, repossession and bankruptcy were the words of the day.

            Now, you may wonder if it is any coincidence that stocks and bonds also peaked just prior to or following the crash of 29. During the 1930’s and into the 40’s, similar to today, bonds were going negative real yield on maturity. Asset values in this case had topped and then crashed whereas bond yield had gone below zero in real terms. During the years subsequent to the crash of 29, collateral based on real estate assets was utterly destroyed as employment suffered and in the process took down some of the biggest banks in the country.

            So these things are all related.

            When we see stock markets rising to historical and unprecedented highs, debt to GDP numbers exceeding the worst ratios in history, bond yields falling to lows rarely seen before the last Great Depression, velocity of money also on its way to Great Depression levels and housing threatening to mean revert (for a second attempt at bottoming)…..we know we are not in our grandfathers garden variety recession anymore.

            These are frankly disturbing long cycle trends that tell us a great danger lies ahead. That a deflationary crash is inevitable. The mantra that we must inflate of die is merely one expressed in our hearts more as a hope and prayer than a reality the current trend can be reversed. We just pray that the powers that be can reverse the momentum that now carries us towards a most worrisome conclusion to our past debt accumulations.

            The key to all of this is debt of course. Rick Ackerman has wisely pointed out the obvious on many occasions here at the Korelin Report and I certainly side with his assessment. Very few agree with him. So perhaps we need to revisit one of the themes that resonates best with those in the hard money camp to help this all make better sense.

            You cannot resolve a debt problem by going deeper into debt.

            Maybe that is all we need to know. It is thematically the basis of the idea that tells us why monetary intervention at this point in the debt cycle is actually an act that brings about a deflationary conclusion and not one that will save our hides though a burst of inflationary propulsion and well being. The long-run business cycle cannot be prevented from reaching its natural conclusion but can only be temporarily averted and moved off its usual course.

            And just as an aside…..the ONLY reason gold had traction during the last depression was because the US Government put a floor under prices and then set about buying up all the gold the domestic mines could produce at a fixed higher value. If not for that single major act then it is improbable gold would have done as well as it did.

            The simple fact remains that miners of the day performed well above expectations because of Federal Government edicts that made their product (gold) exceptionally valuable during a period of economic crisis and thus the cost of production differentials fed through to bottom line profits.

            In other words, policy decisions and policy decisions alone made gold shine during the Depression. Those actions amounted to favoritism towards a particular sector based on old models of what money should be made up of. We should not expect that part of history to repeat in a modern electronic and fiat currency world. Especially while the US Dollar continues to be the worlds premiere reserve currency.

          • On June 22, 2014 at 8:20 pm,
            Big Al says:

            We’re you an economics professor in an earlier life?

          • On June 22, 2014 at 11:41 pm,
            Birdman says:

            Too many words? I had free time on the weekend.

        • On June 22, 2014 at 6:16 pm,
          Big Al says:

          So you agree with Rick?

          • On June 22, 2014 at 11:37 pm,
            Birdman says:

            Absolutely Al. To my knowledge Rick is the only guest here who addresses this subject with clarity. Look, if it was so easy to evaporate debts with the use of the printing press would it not have been done already since the Credit Crisis? Countries may want to devalue currencies but most are not interested in destroying their economies in the process. Even Japan is now looking at ways to exit its QE program. So what we have here is a stinking pile of unrepayable debts accumulating across most of the developed world and they are about to meet the new demands of unfunded liabilities for which insufficient resources and taxes exist to pay them. We have defaults coming although when they strike is not known. The weaker countries of South America and Eastern Europe could easily trigger a crisis that sets off contagion exactly as we saw during the last Great Depression. The Sovereign defaults issue is one of the major features at the termination of the end of a long credit cycle. We are there now so must monitor closely as that risk is so dangerous to our investments.

          • On June 22, 2014 at 11:56 pm,
            Birdman says:

            Maybe ask Rick what he thinks of my views. I imagine he has a lot to say to bolster the position I have taken.

      • On June 21, 2014 at 3:56 pm,
        Chris says:

        Well said and laid out, Birdman.

        What people in both “camps” (inflation and deflation) fail to understand is that both things will happen simultaneously. And as you rightly state, it’s not as simple as the Fed creating money, and thus everything goes up. That can’t last forever. With all its stimulus, the Fed’s hyperinflation of asset prices is slowing the seeds for the next crash, when forced selling, etc. cause things to cascade down/freeze up as in 2008 for a while.

        Now, all we need is a crystal ball, goat entrails or something so we know when/where the event will hit that starts the dominoes tumbling.

        • On June 22, 2014 at 3:32 am,
          Birdman says:

          Goat entrails are my specialty! Actually, sheep entrails might be more precise. Especially as we slaughter one every month for own consumption. Here in this part of Africa there is still not much refrigeration nor are there shops providing prepacked cuts of meats like in the West.

          You need to do it yourself if you want your own food properly prepared and you want to be assured it is fresh and processed cleanly. I have learned how it is done bit by bit watching our worker go through the butchering process. I had never seen it before coming here.

          Brains, blood, heads and entrails are mostly given to the local dogs and cats who arrive in large numbers when they divine a sheep is on the menu. The skin goes for drying and tanning or gets sold back to the skin buyers who are in the business of making skins ready for bags, belts and wallets.

          The rest is parceled out for us people. We eat the stomach here which sounds a little gruesome but is actually delicious when done right. I have adapted to it. Some meat then goes to my freezer, some gets cut and hung in the sun to become the local beef jerky and the rest is processed for steaks, soups and the like.

          I have learned absolutely nothing about reading sheep guts sorry to say except perhaps it is better to be the carnivore than the animal on the menu. I really did not have the heart to kill our first sheep. He was a charming creature with a great temperament and friendly disposition so I let him browse in peace for a month until the mocking from my neighbors had become quite enough!

          Then we ate him.

        • On June 22, 2014 at 4:59 am,
          Birdman says:

          Just as a follow up Chris, I happen to agree we will see both inflation and deflation for the foreseeable future. Indeed it is happening now. It is because of unconventional monetary policy that we are seeing that combination arise.

          Good comparisons to the past, and most particularly, comparisons to the Great Depression have until now been difficult to make with precision. Part of the reason is that the order of events as seen in the past (historical events from the GD business cycle) has changed and are not matching the models that analysts have created.

          So then we are confronted with a set of data that does not match our assumptions and naturally enough a conflict arises. I think these differences can all be accounted for by the extremes in monetary policy but that the end result of a serious deflation will probably be the same.

          In the meantime we can ask ourselves if we have entered a new Great Depression, if we are in the process of exiting one or if we are deep in the middle. History rhymes but does not repeat. Our behaviors today at policy level are a learned response to the last calamity so it should not surprise us that the events are reordered and not exactly following script.

          What I think is absolutely key though are the following important ideas. First, we have not yet seen a stock market crash that is as serious as the one that set off the depression of the Thirties. Although we did have a crash during the GFC it appears to me we are hell bent on creating the conditions for another that is going to be of far greater magnitude.

          Secondly, while US real estate assets have already passed through a trial by fire it is beginning to look more and more likely that a repeat will also be staged and that will probably coincide with an eventual equities deflation.

          Third, we are still awaiting a sovereign debt crisis that is probably essential to bring back balance to quite a number of heavily indebted nations. So the solvency issue has been pushed to the back burner by interventionist policy but it remains a serious threat once interest rates eventually begin to rise.

          Some people will point to the US and assure us that all the major events of the last depression as discussed above have already happened and that evidence should therefore prove we are in the exiting stage, rather than just beginning. They could be correct. We should not forget though that the US is but one country and most others have not had a similar experience (yet). In my opinion though it is the interconnectedness of the global community that puts America in further jeopardy down the road.

          In the meantime we should take a facts based approach to determining what our future holds. Debt burdens are still extreme and growing and so we have not been forced to contend with a debt clearing and cleansing process.

          There is clearly more to the analysis than just trying to overlay charts of inflation, interest rates, bond prices, home values, employment numbers, velocity and debt figures in attempting to arrive at the correct conclusions about where we are in the cycle. To my mind, debt itself still has the power to overwhelm all of the efforts made to keeping our systems afloat.

      • On June 22, 2014 at 6:25 pm,
        Big Al says:

        Great comment. I am convinced my stock portfolio is almost equal to being in cash. Worked before and should work again. Got my fingers crossed!

        • On June 22, 2014 at 11:53 pm,
          Birdman says:

          I look forward to hearing more of the arguments from the other side Al. While I have strong beliefs that tell me deflation is the ultimate risk I sure cannot know it all. So we have to keep an open mind. I just don’t see how everyone can inflate away their debts together. This is really a global problem for which no good answers exist. Knowing as I do how asset prices can be negatively affected at the termination of such periods of credit excess are a flashing red light warning that we should not place too much faith in our wealth being predicated on their supposed worth. At the end of the day we need cash to service obligations and that ingredient is in short supply when the whole world leverages to the eyebrows. The final reconciliation of said excess debts cannot result in inflation in my view as demand is destroyed as asset prices deflate. Calculate that across the globe and I think we will have one very ugly depression.

      • On June 23, 2014 at 6:43 am,
        glenfidish says:

        Bird,

        Great piece of work indeed! I appreciate the hard work and contributions to this site.
        Bird if I may, can I get your honest assessment of the housing market in Canada? It seems homes have been going up in a straight line for quite sometime. At the same time household income has been declining. No government sector job is hiring. In fact they are letting go of people. It seems most jobs continue to come from construction which is beginning to slow down as permits are not being granted from what im told. For years now I have been debating to jump in and pull my hair for not having done so. I don’t want to chase these markets as opportunity only comes once or twice in a lifetime.

        So these are a few questions i would like for you to answer please.

        Is the canadian housing in a bubble?
        If yes is it similar to the us bubble in 2007/2008?
        How much higher can these prices continue?
        Are Canadian banks as safe as they say they are?

        Not sure if you follow marty armstrong. But martys cycle work seems its based on us economy right? He has housing hitting a wall in 2016 I believe and then the curtains fall.

        What does Canadas housing future have?
        Why has Canadas housing bust not come to fruition?
        Is it being delayed?

        Sorry for all these questions but you have a great deal of knowledge and Ive been contemplating what to do as im a current renter with my family. I live in toronto but the prices are absolutely insane at the same time rent continues to go up. What gives?

        Thanks for your time Bird. Anyone else please be free to give your advice or knowledge of the matter.

  16. On June 21, 2014 at 9:37 am,
    Festus says:

    As I read the piece I could not help but conclude the events that led to WWI are similar to the conflicts we face today.

    Dennis, what we face today is a terrible nightmare. It is nothing like any time in history. There is unprecedented debt that is continually growing. The average standard of living in this country had been dropping for decades. Only debt has kept it from completely collapsing and that cannot last.

    When this unprecedented debt bubble finally collapses it will reap a whirlwind nothing like the world has ever seen. World financial collapse and war, probably including nuclear weapons are in the future. And this collapse will be nothing like the world has ever seen.

    The world will be an agonizing place for most. The living will envy the dead. For many suicide will be the only answer.

  17. On June 21, 2014 at 9:40 am,
    Festus says:

    The dog ate my hard drive excuse offered up by the Internal Rascals Schemeing is pure BS.

    Even if her hard drive died there HAD TO BE backups of it. And even if there was not which is VERY UNLIKELY those emails had to be stored on the IRS email servers and they too must have been backed up.

    Total BS for our government masters.

  18. On June 21, 2014 at 9:50 am,
    Festus says:

    First hour: “This is more than food for thought. This is food for fear.”

    Yes, very true. When the world debt bubble finanlly collapses we face a world of hell. Most of the massess will be better off dead. A bullet to the head will be their best friend.

    • On June 21, 2014 at 11:19 am,
      Birdman says:

      Kind of extreme. How about we just enjoy each others company more and spend better time gossiping in coffee shops rather than shopping for shoes and cars and homes all day?

      • On June 22, 2014 at 6:27 pm,
        Big Al says:

        Obviously a great idea, Bird.

        Are we getting old or what?

        • On June 22, 2014 at 11:55 pm,
          Birdman says:

          Yup….old age, gossip and coffee are a perfect combination. Better than suicide that’s for sure!

  19. On June 21, 2014 at 10:11 am,
    Festus says:

    From the mouth of the state, “I have the right to kill you right now.” As the Empire degenerates and the jack booted Nazi bastard thug tyrants who control Amerika demand total control expect to see more of this…

    http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2014/06/20/albuquerque_police_killings_gruesome_video_shows_cops_shooting_a_homeless.html

    • On June 21, 2014 at 11:31 am,
      Dennis M. O'Neil says:

      The guillotine is overhead resistance.

      • On June 21, 2014 at 11:46 am,
        Birdman says:

        Funny stuff, Dennis!

        • On June 21, 2014 at 12:10 pm,
          Dennis M. O'Neil says:

          I try!

        • On June 21, 2014 at 12:27 pm,
          Birdman says:

          So then support is when heads get lopped off?

      • On June 21, 2014 at 2:25 pm,
        J........the Long.............ootb says:

        Dennis ha ha,,,,,,,,,,thanks for the heads up……

        • On June 21, 2014 at 4:18 pm,
          Gator says:

          Hands off…J…the Long…….

          • On June 21, 2014 at 5:17 pm,
            J........the Long.............ootb says:

            Gator ,,,I thought they needed a basket full of …..thoughts……

        • On June 21, 2014 at 9:19 pm,
          Gator says:

          J..the long…… Joke….Heads up….hands off……..guess I’ve got to teach my fishin buddy some redneck ways………..Go Gators…..I hope………

          • On June 22, 2014 at 6:33 am,
            J........the Long.............ootb says:

            Gator………got ya…………hope your week is full of joy, and prosperity……

          • On June 22, 2014 at 6:35 am,
            J........the Long.............ootb says:

            RED NECKS…………the backbone of AMERICA……….

  20. On June 21, 2014 at 11:42 am,
    jill h says:

    who are the six guys

    • On June 22, 2014 at 6:38 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Six guys?

  21. On June 21, 2014 at 1:13 pm,
    scott says:

    Hi Friends: Is it possible we may see Sarah Palin , again running as vice pres candidate??? they could do worse. At least she is interesting and somewhat popular. Repubs have a sad group of candidates for Pres. . I personally wont vote for Hillary or Bush. If senator Sanders from vermont runs he will at least create some excitement for the Dems. by the way i recently bought some APA stock and i am glad. love and best of health to all S

    • On June 22, 2014 at 6:40 pm,
      Big Al says:

      I think Mrs Palin is done politically and that certainly does not mean that I don’t respect her!

      • On June 23, 2014 at 6:10 am,
        Ron says:

        I also highly respect Sarah, for any self respecting American knows the media did a hatchet job on her. With Bob ‘s comments about 6 people controlling the media, also well founded I believe. That in itself is her problem. I have been e-mailing Glenn Beck to put together a group like they did in Green Bay, to buy the Packers to buy NBC. We need a voice along with FOX who also stands up for truth.

  22. On June 21, 2014 at 3:46 pm,
    Birdman says:

    Yesterday I was trying to make a point about electronic money going global and that point was rebuffed by our friend CFS who stated bluntly that world money would never happen. He may be right in his assessment but I still think we need to work through the idea before discarding it out of hand.

    Let me explain. At this time we live under a regime where the primary global reserve currency is the US Dollar. Until fairly recently it had been backed by gold such that all countries accepted it in trade.

    After Nixon closed the gold window most currencies became pegged and went fully fiat along with the dollar. A world wide floating rate system emerged which was novel in all history. So the full faith and confidence in the dollar was all that really held the worlds currency system together. And that protocol is still intact today even though gold no longer officially backs any of our major currencies.

    What I suggested yesterday was that Corporate money might replace our current system. That is more than just idle conjecture. At a time when sovereigns across the globe are stressed with debts that are growing increasingly extreme it becomes more and more difficult to assign a value to any of our current floating rate money with real confidence.

    This is a time when corporate money arises as an alternative to state sponsored systems for the mere reason that they are not dependent on tax revenues as a backing mechanism to support their value. Hopefully we all understand that the money created by the US is essentially backed by the taxation powers of the state and not by any single asset class like gold to give it value.

    The days of gold have passed in that regard.

    So what makes corporate money more valuable? That is really an interesting question to me. We are shifting from a world where public finances dictate to a time when private wealth takes center stage. The aspect of large utilities generating real revenues is far more appealing and also far more secure than even the taxing power of government.

    Most governments are deeply in debt as we already know. They hold liabilities far in excess of what incomes they can cover. They have unfunded liabilities that can exceed their incomes by several factors in many cases. So money they produce is thus suspect and in danger of being destroyed or devalued through ill conceived political actions.

    As an alternative I had wondered what might happen if (for example) a company like Google introduced a free floating global currency via its mobile phone networks. I mean a mobile currency that could be used in any country anywhere and anytime and one that would work seamlessly without the user ever needing to know the local rates of exchange.

    Now first off we all need to understand that most money is in fact already created by private corporations. These are called banks and they are typically held by public share ownership. Banks as we know create credit and credit creates money. Rinse and repeat.

    So what I am talking about is hardly science fiction….It is already our daily reality.

    Well what is the difference then if a private corporation creates money backed by the full faith and confidence of its revenue stream as opposed to a government that does the same backed by taxation revenues? Which would we feel was more secure at a time when unfunded liabilities, pension payments and welfare obligations call into doubt the sanctity of public money itself?

    This is just a thought experiment. I do not know the answers. I only wonder what barriers really exist to the creation of an electronic mobile currency that spans all nations and is unhinged from the current regime such that it might be the most valuable money we possess should the current system fail.

    • On June 22, 2014 at 5:24 pm,
      bb says:

      I don’t see why Your idea cant work Bird.
      Canadian Tire cash, air miles, reward points. Points for using credit cads,the digitals, your idea is already in the works, possibly we are mearly waiting for the free market to decide which one/ones it wants to become dominant?
      Ive haerd Bill Still discuss this same thing concluding the people decide, my point is its possible it just needs to evolve and it could be like picking a horse, who knows what psychology will exist at the crucial moment for decision?
      Time frame may also be a factor, this idea may also be just a phase in our evolution in currency.
      You mentioned all the gold eventualy gathered by a few people, except, we are going to mine asteroids and planets, so, is the jewelry “rounded up” before someone hits “pay planet”?
      We are on the verge of changing our thinking yet again, alot of things possible, and your right, we may not need as many “bullets in the head” as the living may not envy the dead, some maybe.
      But with so many things possible, why cant we just have a coffee and talk about it?

    • On June 22, 2014 at 8:28 pm,
      Big Al says:

      The primary difference stems from the rules that the banks have to play by!

      • On June 23, 2014 at 12:09 am,
        Birdman says:

        Of course I agree that under current regimes banks are somewhat limited in what they can do. But we are already seeing mobile phone companies getting directly involved in the credit process. Well, credit is the source of new money and so in fact non-bank companies could soon be in the money creation business. When I reflect that the Kenyan M-Pesa system has evolved such that as much as 60% of all national transactions are based around mobile technology I know that private, non- state, electronic money is just a few years away. Look at this another way….we already have a multitude of currencies around the world plus a wide range of private money coming onstream. Crypto currencies are the new kid on the block and they are already competing with the more than 200 sovereign currencies in existence. BB mention others that amount to near-money. As far as I can see, if Bitcoin can launch without resistance then there is absolutely nothing stopping a group of large stable corporations from introducing a globally acceptable and accessible world currency to compete with existing state money. Baby steps now Al….world domination later!

  23. On June 21, 2014 at 4:00 pm,
    J........the Long.............ootb says:

    Bob. M………and I think alike……………THE TWO HEADED SNAKE…….ajackson 1837

    • On June 21, 2014 at 4:04 pm,
      J........the Long.............ootb says:

      Bob’s comments on politics are spot on……..

  24. On June 21, 2014 at 4:19 pm,
    Birdman says:

    Do any of you hard money people have an answer for me?

    Or maybe the idea of corporate fiat currencies are too much like coloring outside the lines for your liking? We are not going back to gold backed currencies and that is for certain. You won’t like to hear this but bi-metal money is already an idea of the past century.

    I honestly think we are moving to a time of private money creation that is backed by the products, services and revenues of companies we already know well could take the center stage in the new currency of the world. But you fools all think I am nuts I am sure. I discuss this idea frequently here but none of you seems to catch the trend that is already underway. Few respond to the posts except with criticism because the idea does not fit your narrative that gold is money.

    Sorry. But gold is not money anymore. That was yesterday.

    Digital money is already a fact on the other hand. Money made by phone, software and technology companies is happening as we speak. And it is not Bitcoin which was subject to double digit rises and declines week by week. That crap is already dead.

    How long do any of you really think it will be before there is solid cooperation between the companies that issue credit, the major banks and the mobile and tech companies such that they are in a position to produce the next world reserve currency? Would you be surprised if that act was already underway?

    A currency that is based upon business revenues and income streams worldwide.

    This is obviously far different from the IMF and its SDR system because it is suggesting a money system based on real worldwide income and assets versus pure fiat money models. Equity capital and income is the new gold. Maybe that is the answer to the question we ask when we wonder where we are heading next with cash.

    Who is to say any country should own it all when the better backers may well be the companies we trust and depend on day to day? We can only appreciate that the boardrooms of publicly listed company that are subject to their shareholders votes might be more potent than the miscellaneous governments issuing local currencies that are so often debauched by political whims.

    Just a thought. Just a prediction. Let us not get complacent as the world is quickly changing.

    • On June 21, 2014 at 4:30 pm,
      HEAVYHITTER says:

      I agree Bird but right now its a long shot. The far East is
      now setting the example for golds rule in currencies.

      Its going to play out because the elite will make fortunes
      on the gold trade. It will come to a final conclusion with
      gold trading far fetched levels. $3000 gold or higher.

      Then I believe you are on to something. Excellent comments.
      Your scenario is believable just not in the next few years.

      Right now its golds turn. IMVHO

    • On June 21, 2014 at 5:49 pm,
      Chris says:

      I’ve advocated this for a long time. What is already starting and will gain strength will be little different than all the shop keepers who, during the 1930’s, cam eup with their own coupons, chits and “currencies” so they could still drive some needed economic activity.
      I’ve not heard much new about it, but Amazon, among others, has talked about doing this.

      • On June 22, 2014 at 4:12 am,
        Birdman says:

        Thanks Chris and HH. That is an excellent point regarding how money was created in the past. We should expect to see that again if we really do enter a depression and money goes out of circulation as it did last time around.

        The advent of Bitcoin was really demanding we all consider the very nature of money itself. At its heart is the idea that a new alternate currency be stateless and that it does indeed span all countries and currency regimes. So we have been mentally prepared on some level for the introduction of Corporate money while also being led to question the strength and stability of the companies who are its sponsors.

        Confidence is absolutely key.

        Bitcoin did not enjoy that benefit. On the contrary, doubts persisted of its credibility from its inception and the failure of Mt Gox just led us to believe the model was flawed and subject to corrupting influences, poor management, lack of good controls and in some cases outright theft.

        How different would it be if a crypto currency or electronic wallet money was jointly sponsored by Visa, Bank of America, Google and Facebook though? Now that is something we could probably get behind and I suspect we will see exactly such a joint relationship evolve over time.

        The company names I am using above are only examples of course. We might just as easily see Apple, IBM, Boeing, At&T Mobility, Citibank, JPM, MasterCard, Wells Fargo, Verizon and T-Mobile create the key relationships. I really have no idea. What I do know is that whoever strategically forms the partnerships to make the transaction systems go live might well come to dominate alternate global currencies. They may even become the the seeds of a new world currency that is ultimately embraced by all trading nations.

        The people will decide. So marketability is an important component.

        So your comparison to the scrip, chits, coupons and local currency is excellent. My view is that in a more connected technological world that such systems could go international and that they might be widely embraced if sovereign defaults were to accelerate as was seen during the last great depression.

        One other thing I am sure of is that those who get behind such an idea will find it tremendously profitable. Corporate sponsored crypto currencies and electronic money can indeed be border less, secure, stable and stateless. These are the keys to what will give them a life of their own. Perhaps they will only be borne and gain life in a genuine financial crisis though.

        The future is still being written. Until then we should remain open to such ideas as I suspect they are already being formulated in the background. I would certainly be a buyer of that kind of money and think it preferable to gold. Like I said before, corporate equity is really the new money where sponsors are responsible with their own debts.

    • On June 22, 2014 at 5:28 pm,
      bb says:

      I tried a response further up Bird. Golds not going anywhere, people like it.
      Even if it got cheaper than dirt people would be after it to make statues out of it thus raising demand and value.
      I don’t see gold going to zero.
      You can debate the value of gold in chickens, but it wont be zero.

    • On June 22, 2014 at 6:39 pm,
      CFS says:

      Bird, I can see it as viable on a regional or single country basis to have corporate money.
      However, this needs a change in legal tender laws, for a start and I can’t see politicians too happy about that. The other problem is the viability of the companies that issue money.
      e.g. I doubt many people would accept currency issued by a bank.
      For example in Scotland, which uses Pounds Sterling, there are banks which issue pounds notes (used to be 5 different banks) The one pound is a coin.
      But even though a ten-pound Scottish note is in pounds sterling, they are not usually accepted in England more than 50 miles south of the border.
      (This is old first hand data, because I have not been to Scotland in 15 years)
      Paper money evolved out of gold receipts as being more convenient than lugging lumps of metal around. After the coming collapse of US money, which may happen, certainly US citizens will be more amenable to change, but I find it difficult to believe that those countries which have a stable currency will want to change.
      Easy at the county-to-country level. Much harder at the person to person level.

      • On June 22, 2014 at 10:41 pm,
        Birdman says:

        Sure, I can appreciate what you are saying. On the face of it there are tremendous hurdles to overcome. But before writing off the idea altogether I only ask you to consider a few bits of information that are well know and should demonstrate how the seeds of global corporate money already exists.

        Take for example VISA. That brand is already know in virtually every country on earth. They do not issue credit directly but rather through local banks however the key idea here is there is worldwide portability. You can use your VISA credit and debit cards in an ATM or shop across the world as easily as you would shop at home.

        A second example is Western Union. That brand is also know everywhere and they have mastered the business of inter-country exchange and transfer while establishing a network of send/receive outlets that also encompassed the planet. There is no more difficulty in issuing payments to someone in Bulgaria as there are in processing your own hydro or water payments at your local bank.

        Third, consider the mobile technologies that I have been talking about lately and how quickly these were embraced. The beauty of these is that the technology required to send and receive payments or to access credit or debit is now physically in the hands of almost every adult on earth.

        This is a software and hardware marriage that is just waiting for applications from companies with depth and reach. As I pointed out in another thread, there are now an estimated 6 billion mobile phone users even at a time when only two billion of earths inhabitants have a bank account!

        Fourth, name branding and strength. When I heard that Google was starting up the electronic wallet I nearly fell off my chair. It had been such an obvious idea to me that I never understood why any of the major companies had ever tried it in North America. Clearly though it had been in the works for a long time already. Their system is designed to marry up credit and cash payment systems through the banks with their own electronic cellular systems.

        I had already seen how seamlessly mobile money worked and how it had just exploded out of the starting blocks in Kenya. So why would it not work everywhere? That was my main interest. With a company like Google at the helm and its name on the banner a perfect fit was made from my perspective.

        And who has not heard of Google? Their name is a verb in languages everywhere already so the first major barrier (branding) is easily overcome. M-Pesa on the other hand does not ring well with most English speakers and so that will likely remain a local brand in Kenya alone.

        But I am getting off track. To make a long story short, there are already cash, credit and debit systems running in most countries backed by major US companies. They all revolve around the US dollar at this time but that is not an idea that is necessarily fixed in stone for all time. Should these companies combine forces and actually issue the money itself we may see something akin to Bitcoin in the form of mobile phone money that actually goes completely border less.

        What I see happening is the emergence of credit, debit, money transfers functions and other transaction international processing being married under a single name. It would be a combination of the resources of all the companies noted above (or their competitors) and distributed across the telephony network that spans the globe already.

        All the pieces are now in place for a global, privately issued corporate money offering all the features of fiat except it would not be paper based nor would it be subject to the political winds and liabilities of any individual nation.

        I really think this is in our future. It is happening already.

  25. On June 21, 2014 at 4:21 pm,
    CFS says:

    At the risk of being accused of a hate crime…..

    I am not a christian. I am not a Jew. I am neither anti-christian nor anti-jew.
    I am not a muslim. I am anti-muslim.

    In the City of Mosul prior to its taking by ISIS this city of population 8 million had about 40,000 christians. I can guarantee there remain no overt christians remaining in that city. Some 20,000 are known to have fled north as refugees to the Kurdish controlled region. Many christians have been decapitated and their heads used as footballs for entertainment of the ISIS troops. Some christians went south to Baghdad to seek help from the US embassy. None were given help to my knowledge.
    From their behavior, I consider the actions of the animals in the ISIS army as sub-human and totally uncivilized. I consider the institution of their type of Sharia law in the region unacceptable to mankind and condemn these Islamic scum.

    Sorry, Big Al. I cannot remain silent, but understand if you choose to remove my post.

    • On June 21, 2014 at 5:26 pm,
      Dick Tracy says:

      Big Al, is busy now taking out the garbage, we all must serve someone.

      • On June 22, 2014 at 7:02 am,
        J........the Long.............ootb says:

        garbage in …….garbage out……….

      • On June 22, 2014 at 8:44 pm,
        Big Al says:

        Actually Machine Gun we celebrated Steph’ s 30th this weekend with the family and some of her friends. Two wonderful days!

    • On June 21, 2014 at 7:30 pm,
      Jay says:

      cfs, i am none of the above (nor am i an atheist, i have my own views which have been and will continue to be an inference to the best explanation.. one that chamges and adapts as new information is discovered). The majority of muslims are completely against this sort of violence, and IN NO WAY can any Christian call islam out on violence. No religion in the history of mankind has as much blood on its hands as Christianity PERIOD. There are a great deal of amazing individuals who call themselves Christians, almost all of whom that i have mey use the bible as a guideline, not an absolute. Closing ones mind off to debate or new infor

      • On June 21, 2014 at 7:33 pm,
        Jay says:

        – new information is how extremism begins. religion is slavory.

        • On June 21, 2014 at 7:34 pm,
          Jay says:

          as far as isis goes dont forget they were trained and armed by a Christian nation lol

          • On June 21, 2014 at 9:07 pm,
            Tom says:

            You all keep bringing up religion…theses people are mentally damaged…period…they need help and they need to be removed from society and properly treated…but who has the time/patience/money for that?

          • On June 22, 2014 at 8:58 pm,
            Big Al says:

            Excellent point Tom!

          • On June 22, 2014 at 4:16 am,
            Birdman says:

            Agree, religion has nothing to do with this. It is always about power and control.

          • On June 22, 2014 at 9:15 pm,
            Big Al says:

            Yep power desired by the Christians, the Jews, the Muslims and the list goes on!

          • On June 22, 2014 at 6:54 am,
            J........the Long.............ootb says:

            Jay……….you can not judge…………because you are of NO FAITH……
            You only are judging,,,,,,by actions of lip service OF PRETEND so called Christians,,,,,which they most likely are not………..IT real easy to understand………….YOU WILL KNOW THEM BY THEIR FRUITS(ACTIONS)…….WHICH IS BASIC AS IT GETS…which is.. ……..LOVE THEY NEIGHBOR AS THEY SELF..

          • On June 22, 2014 at 9:21 pm,
            Big Al says:

            Yes it is purely that simple.

            I guess that I am back to being wise because I do believe!

          • On June 22, 2014 at 10:16 am,
            Jay says:

            j…
            I think that was my point, in that these so-called muslims (isis)are in no way living as muslims by doing ehat they are doing, ergo this is nothing but propaganda by the west to be labeling this a muslim issue. There are mentally deranged on both sides of these religions none of whom practice their religions as to their gospel / initial intent

          • On June 22, 2014 at 9:27 pm,
            Big Al says:

            I have to agree with you Jay

          • On June 22, 2014 at 10:36 am,
            J........the Long.............ootb says:

            Jay……thanks for the follow up……….appreciate…thanks for clearing up…..J….

          • On June 22, 2014 at 8:47 pm,
            Big Al says:

            I don” t believe that they learned their philosophy from Christians.

          • On June 23, 2014 at 12:19 am,
            Birdman says:

            And don’t forget those damned Catholics!

      • On June 21, 2014 at 7:51 pm,
        CFS says:

        Christianity, however, went through the reformation. Islam never did. Islam is not a religion of tolerance. If you can find Islamic leaders condemning the killing of Christians and Jews or the burning of churches or synagogues , I will be surprised. I was in England at the time of 9/11 and I vividly recall muslims blaming US presence in Iraq as the cause and it took a week before any Islamic leader finally said killing 3,000 innocent people was wrong.

        • On June 21, 2014 at 8:24 pm,
          Jay says:

          I hear what you’re saying but I still have to disagree man, here’s why:
          (i can only use the examples that come to mind at this point though there may be others)
          The Canadian islamic community speaking out against Isis and Calgary’s latest jihadist
          http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/hundreds-of-calgary-muslims-protest-isis-violence-in-iraq-1.2683589
          As far as Christianity’s reformation, are you talking about the new testimate?
          Just some examples of people claiming to be Christian on a crusade in the same manor ISIS claims jihad and to be Muslim:
          – Hitler
          – George W. (who needs a Constitution? / whats wrong with torture? / who needs due process or fundamental human rights?) Bush
          – Westborough Baptist church (I won’t even start on these guys or Al most certainly would remove the post 😉
          Just a few quick examples,

          • On June 22, 2014 at 6:58 am,
            J........the Long.............ootb says:

            Next…..do a study on the Crusades……..who were they financed by?

          • On June 22, 2014 at 8:54 pm,
            Big Al says:

            The New Testament has little to do with the Reformation except that the different “clubs” that resulted in different meeting places and different “secret handshakes”.

        • On June 22, 2014 at 8:07 am,
          CFS says:

          http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/suicide-bomber-killed-in-iraq-part-of-wider-jihadi-base-in-calgary-1.2663890
          Jay, watch this.
          You can say it is not organised islamic behavior, but something is going on.

          • On June 22, 2014 at 10:27 am,
            Jay says:

            consider this though, imagine living in a muslim country where media and propaganda are reversed, most likely you would be wstching news portraying Christianity as proclaimed by the likes of Westborough Baptist.. or painting Christianity with one brush by taking doc.s like Jesus camp which dispalys a cult like following of americas saviour George W. by the evangelical sect. . inflamatory and a manipulation of the truth which is that the VAST majority of Christians DONT support violence or these warmongering regimes.. im just saying the same applies to islam as well

          • On June 22, 2014 at 9:28 pm,
            Big Al says:

            Interesting point Jay

          • On June 22, 2014 at 10:54 am,
            CFS says:

            So, Jay, what do you propose should be done against ISIS?

          • On June 22, 2014 at 11:05 am,
            CFS says:

            Should ISIS be left alone until they have established a Caliphate?
            Or should they be stopped?
            If you don’t want to do something now, when should something be done?
            After Iraq falls?
            After Syria falls?
            After Lebanon falls?
            After Turkey falls?
            When they attack Israel?
            After they start terrorism in Europe? Oops, too late for that.
            After they restart terrorism in America?

            The US (with or without allies) is the only force capable of stopping ISIS.

            Iran can and will get involved, but I don’t believe Iran has the capability.

            Finally, let me state there only two ways to win a war and unilateral declaration of a win and walk away is NOT one of them.

          • On June 22, 2014 at 11:24 am,
            Jay says:

            honestly as much as i hate to say it, i dont think it matters what we think. This is what the powers that be want… they need the population kept in a state of fear so we have to rely on the state to “save and protect us”. isis, Sadam, Osama, all of these are results of western interference. While i was studying polysci, law, and philosophy in university i had done thousands of hours of research into the history of political systems, legal systems, and ultimately “fundamental human rights”. I had hoped to be convinced that we live in a just society whereby fundamental rights really do exist, and everyone actually has a true ability for self determination (and equal opportunity to make the best of their lives). I got so fed up with politics because no matter what i or anyone else did, nothing of any value would change in the political / legal arenas… and continuosly fighting these systems to little avail just simply wasnt making my life better.. i was always p#@sed off all the time at what was happening nationally and abroad. The ULTIMATE conclusion that i ve come to is one that if wanted could be achieved if we wanted it to be (if it ever is, Im sure it will be one forced on us by nature and an overburdened planet). That conclusion is simply this:
            We continue to live under an economic system which requires GROWTH to sustain itself. Without growth everything crashes. And this will happen once again in yhe coming years. The system will collapse, millions (maybe even billions) will die. Ownership and asset value will readjust, and we begin the process all over again.. this will be taken even further down the path if we reach the ability for extending resource periphery beyond our planet.
            But there is one solution. One which would end MOST of the largest problems we face in trying to create a better, sustainable society which values above all fundamental rights and the need to nurture peoples ability for creative inquiry and expression.
            SOLUTION: DESIGN AN ECONOMIC SYSTEM WHICH DOES NOT REQUIRE GROWTH TO SUSTAIN ITSELF.

          • On June 22, 2014 at 9:34 pm,
            Big Al says:

            How about going back to an economic system with incentives?

          • On June 22, 2014 at 11:34 am,
            J........the Long.............ootb says:

            FREE MARKETS……….no Large govt…….no large corporation..

            .Instead….Small LOCAL govt., and SMALL BUSINESSes…………will cure 90% of our problems………

          • On June 22, 2014 at 12:00 pm,
            Jay says:

            for sure! but thats only part of it.. elimination of debt based currency has to be inlcuded. All current models require growth to sustain. this is why what i call “manufactured obsolescents” exists. We KNOW how to make light bulbs that last 100 years, cars that dont fall apart after X-amount of miles, etc. but if these companies HAVE TO GROW, why would they produce products that don’t fall apart and require replacing down the line? Because the economy, the gdp needs to GROW. We need to create jobs, not eliminate them… this has always been the thinking..
            just take one example though. I have to do 1-2 hours of work per year to cover my lightbulb supply: buying new ones, pay municiple tax so waste management can collect my old ones as well as waste packaging from new ones. if i buy bulbs that last 100 years, i eliminate a portion of my need for waste management, labour needed to produce new bulbs, BUT I also have 1 – 2 hours each year to do what i want and not work. Thats 1 -2 hours someone else can get to work each year.
            This is just one simple example but when applied on a broad scale would solve i believe a vast majority of the issues we face economically and as a society

          • On June 22, 2014 at 12:11 pm,
            Jay says:

            as far as isis goes, they’re just a symptom(certainly a horrific one) but ultimately the problem.

          • On June 22, 2014 at 12:19 pm,
            CFS says:

            We will have the lopportunity to create a new society after the collapse, but that does not answer the question of what to jihadism now.

            Remember the leader of ISIS has repeated his threat “See you in New York”

          • On June 22, 2014 at 1:00 pm,
            Jay says:

            jihadism exists because of foreign atrocitoes commited in the middle east. The best solution which would turn the whole world against islam exttemists would be to hold those in the west account for those atrocities. My suggestion would be to place the Bushes, and their regimes (primarily Cheney, Rumsfeld, modt certainky Wolfowitz, et al on trial at the icc. This woulf be an intelligent and crucial display of accountability in regards to international (and especially u.s.) law. Yhe present jihadists most likely would want to continue, but with justicebck on the wests side, and measures having been taken to prevent creating future jihadists, the symptoms will fade. But this wont happen, and I think you re right in that a new 911 is mosy likely around the corner… even before obama was elected, i warned my biggest fear for the west was the 2012 / 2016 election of jeb bush… if he gets in, im moving to Perth. anywhere the hell away from North America…

          • On June 22, 2014 at 2:08 pm,
            CFS says:

            I am going to end my side of the dialog, because IF anyone thinks that Jihadism is caused by US intervention they, in my opinion, do not understand the problem.

            To think that if the US withdraws entirely then the US will not be attack is extreme naivety. It only allows the Jihadist to gain strength.
            There are two ways to end a war.
            1. Eliminate the enemy.
            2. Make the enemy understand that any attack will cause a retaliation so painful, that the attack does not happen.

            Unilateral withdrawal is always taken as A SIGN OF WEAKNESS AND INVITES FURTHER ATTACK.

          • On June 22, 2014 at 9:48 pm,
            Big Al says:

            I have to agree that they do not understand.

          • On June 22, 2014 at 2:18 pm,
            Jay says:

            and how did that work out for america in vietnam. withdrawn. attacks from vietnam since?
            how bout Russian withdrawal from Afghan?
            as others have stated here (and i agree) be the example you wish to see in the world. violence only begets more violence and imo force is the weapon of the week

          • On June 22, 2014 at 9:50 pm,
            Big Al says:

            I would say that is normally true, but some of those folks do not understand that in my opinion!

          • On June 22, 2014 at 2:18 pm,
            Jay says:

            (weak)

          • On June 22, 2014 at 6:48 pm,
            CFS says:

            Jay, Russia is still suffering Jihadist attacks.

            Vietnam is aligned with China and would not want to upset China by attacking the US.

          • On June 22, 2014 at 6:50 pm,
            CFS says:

            And Russia defends its borders

          • On June 22, 2014 at 8:40 pm,
            Jay says:

            cfs just to state clearly obviously noone in their right mind supports this isis group, and whoever the next bogeyman will be. BUT, this is absolutely the exact same nonesense as happened with Osama, with Sadam, etc
            If i was a member of a U.S. military family i would be LOSING IT right now on the U.S. gov.
            ONCE AGAIN, America has trained AND armed a group of would be terrorists. They armed and backed Saddam all through his various atrocities etc, no problem whatsoever until he stopped being their obedient lap dog. They trained and armed the wonderful Taliban freedom fighters (back when they were ousting Russia they weren’t called terrorists either). Why on earth would ANY decent American (or other) put themselves or their family at risk to play a role in this nonesense for 1 more day is entirely beyond me…
            Sure ISIS are a bunch of terrorists. Look who trained them

          • On June 22, 2014 at 8:44 pm,
            C says:

            If we all agree that People behave and act according to their belief systems, then the idea that somehow all religions are equal is totally false. For example, the Christian God is the God that sacrifices himself for the love of mankind. On the other hand, the God of Islam is the God of the Sword. Two different Gods with totally different messages: Christianity teaches the use of force only as a last resort for self defense. Islam teaches the use of force to convert and submit to the Koranic laws. Christianity teaches to forgive and love ; Islam teaches to stone and kill: the adulterous woman is one example. Again neither have the same theological teaching, nor the same God: one is enlightened the other is retarded…

          • On June 22, 2014 at 9:56 pm,
            Big Al says:

            Thank you C

          • On June 22, 2014 at 8:52 pm,
            C says:
        • On June 22, 2014 at 8:49 pm,
          Big Al says:

          Thanks for the voice of sanity. I do appreciate that!

          • On June 22, 2014 at 10:24 pm,
            Jay says:

            i have to comment on c’s remark here Al, i agree people act according to their beliefs, regardless of what isis members say they believe, it is NOT islam. I worked briefly with a manwho was Muslim. I don’t know if ive ever met an individual as humble as this man. He was dedicated to his religion and came to work everyday filled with the most amazing positivity, you couldn’t help but be in a better mood being around this guy. His entire family, wife, several kids, his brother were all slaughtered years before. How anyone could go through what this man did yet still remain devoted to his religion, completely free of anger or vengence for what had happened.. amazing. And his outlook was the simple truth that carrying hate could never make his life better. I ve met too many decent people of islamic faith (as i have Christian, Jewishvor other) to be closeminded enough to blame islam for atrocities commited falsely in the name of it.

          • On June 23, 2014 at 9:00 am,
            C says:

            Jay, I do you know it is NOT Islam? The example that you give to us is the example of a man who is either ignorant of his faith or that he deliberately chooses to ignore the teachings of his religion that are contrary to his conscience. Repeating a few selected verses here and there is no proof of knowing. Believe it or not, you would be surprised by the amount of so called moderate Muslims who never read the Koran, as the same is true for a majority of Christians who go to church every Sunday and never bothered to read any of the four gospels in their entirety… So, there is no such think as a moderate Koran, even though there are many contemporary translations nowadays that have been altered and/or diluted to appease the ignorant or to dissimulate the truth from the original ancient texts and its traditional sources. ISIS actions are the expression of the Koranic laws in their pure traditional form.

          • On June 23, 2014 at 12:50 pm,
            Big Al says:

            I did not realize that. Thanks Jay

      • On June 22, 2014 at 6:38 am,
        J........the Long.............ootb says:

        JAY….you will” KNOW THEM BY THEIR FRUITS.”…….

        • On June 22, 2014 at 6:40 am,
          J........the Long.............ootb says:

          Bush………,denounced his belief……………

          • On June 22, 2014 at 6:44 am,
            J........the Long.............ootb says:

            People are completely confused as to what Christianity is , IT IS TO BE CALLED….TO BE LIKE CHRIST……..which is LOVE.

          • On June 22, 2014 at 9:18 pm,
            Big Al says:

            One could say that he kind of did, Jerry.

            But than again I am an unwise old owl!

        • On June 22, 2014 at 8:10 am,
          CFS says:

          The Crusades are hardly relevant to today’s wars.
          , 800 years lster.

          • On June 22, 2014 at 8:46 pm,
            C says:

            If we all agree that People behave and act according to their belief systems, then the idea that somehow all religions are equal is totally false. For example, the Christian God is the God that sacrifices himself for the love of mankind. On the other hand, the God of Islam is the God of the Sword. Two different Gods with totally different messages: Christianity teaches the use of force only as a last resort for self defense. Islam teaches the use of force to convert and submit to the Koranic laws. Christianity teaches to forgive and love ; Islam teaches to stone and kill: the adulterous woman is one example. Again neither have the same theological teaching, nor the same God: one is enlightened the other is retarded…

          • On June 22, 2014 at 8:51 pm,
            C says:
    • On June 22, 2014 at 8:36 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Common man, I agree with you completely!

  26. On June 21, 2014 at 7:42 pm,
    Jay says:

    also keep in mind this is what the powers that be WANT. if they didn’t, they would change it. For some time (longer than America anyway) Canada had a sort of “baby face” image around the world. Nice, free country everyone liked.. as America used to be. Since Steven Harper thatis o longer true. Now Canada faces more of a threat than ever before as does america. If “safety, and peace” was really something the powers that be wanted, i can think of no better measure than to shut down the scum in the nsa, cia, csis, etc. and simply stop effing with other countries…. really not rocket science imo

  27. On June 21, 2014 at 7:56 pm,
    CFS says:

    Obama dictates what the US does currently.

    • On June 21, 2014 at 8:28 pm,
      Jay says:

      That may be true, I don’t have proof off the top of my head, but it seems much more plausible (what Bob pointed out in the first segment) that Obama, Bush, perhaps Hillary if that’s what they want, do what they’re told. If not, they are removed.

      • On June 21, 2014 at 8:33 pm,
        Jay says:

        Sorry, last thought,
        How many Christian countries have been attacked or invaded by Muslim countries over the last Century? Just Curious..
        What about vice versa?

        • On June 22, 2014 at 5:09 am,
          CFS says:

          3 Jews killed in Museum in Brussels last week by Belgium Jihadist returning from Syria.

          • On June 22, 2014 at 9:16 pm,
            Big Al says:

            Are you talking about committed by members of a group that are peaceful?

        • On June 22, 2014 at 6:05 pm,
          bb says:

          Jay, good to hear your views. Slowly people are figuring it out. But my guess is you already knew that.

          • On June 22, 2014 at 9:52 pm,
            Big Al says:

            I do agree with you. I too appreciate your views Jay!

        • On June 22, 2014 at 8:47 pm,
          C says:

          If we all agree that People behave and act according to their belief systems, then the idea that somehow all religions are equal is totally false. For example, the Christian God is the God that sacrifices himself for the love of mankind. On the other hand, the God of Islam is the God of the Sword. Two different Gods with totally different messages: Christianity teaches the use of force only as a last resort for self defense. Islam teaches the use of force to convert and submit to the Koranic laws. Christianity teaches to forgive and love ; Islam teaches to stone and kill: the adulterous woman is one example. Again neither have the same theological teaching, nor the same God: one is enlightened the other is retarded…

        • On June 22, 2014 at 8:50 pm,
          C says:
        • On June 22, 2014 at 8:57 pm,
          Big Al says:

          Do you consider 911 to have been an invasiomm? How about the other buildings? How about the subways?

    • On June 22, 2014 at 2:34 am,
      Birdman says:

      A ridiculous statement.

      • On June 22, 2014 at 2:39 am,
        Birdman says:

        Obama does NOT dictate what the US does CFS. He is neither dictator nor royalty. What he does is act as a figurehead for the powers behind the scene and express the will of others. Setting the agenda is not his area at all. Putin on the other hand has a great deal more freedom to act willfully and with independence. And he does.

        • On June 22, 2014 at 5:40 am,
          CFS says:

          Not according to the Constitution. But he has committed between 30 and 40 known impeachable (illegal) acts so far.

          • On June 22, 2014 at 10:08 am,
            Jay says:

            the American Constitution is dead… Canada’s cheap attempt at one (charter of rights and freedoms) is also meaningless as majority of charter claims in the legal system have been from corporations, not natural persons.
            Its amazing to look at this whole process of shift from democracy to oligarchy… almost play by play as described 2300 years ago in Plato’s “republic”! Seems even politics and personal freedoms follow a supercycle of sorts

          • On June 22, 2014 at 11:54 am,
            Birdman says:

            Does the constitution say the president has dictatorial powers? Does it say he is royalty? If so then your many complaints are misplaced.

          • On June 22, 2014 at 6:55 pm,
            CFS says:

            Bird, It is hard to reply to you when somehow you manage to post, but no “reply to this comment” appears after your post.

        • On June 22, 2014 at 9:13 pm,
          Big Al says:

          I believe you are correct, Bird

    • On June 22, 2014 at 8:51 pm,
      Big Al says:

      I believe that is soon coming to a screaming halt!

  28. On June 21, 2014 at 9:09 pm,
    Tom says:

    You all keep bringing up religion…these people are mentally damaged…period…they need help and they need to be removed from society and properly treated…but who has the time/patience/money for that?

  29. On June 22, 2014 at 12:54 am,
    Dick Tracy says:

    In 2016 The Republicans candidate will be Jeb Bush, & Hillary Clinton for The Dem ticket. That is the choice I believe everyone will end up with, now Jerry I know what your thinking and I agree.

    • On June 22, 2014 at 7:06 am,
      J........the Long.............ootb says:

      great minds………think alike……………….to bad the rest have gone mad……

  30. On June 22, 2014 at 9:18 am,
    Dick Tracy says:

    A simple fact is that the world’s financial system is deranged and this is indicated by the shifting of gold from the west and most notably from The United States to the east and particularly China. Gold is real money and when the west has lost huge amounts of it their financial empire has disappeared.

  31. On June 22, 2014 at 12:30 pm,
    Dennis M. O'Neil says:

    bemb, you probably knew his original name was that of Marion Morrison. But did you know he wore a toupee most of his life and wore lifts in his shoes to add to his 6’4″ in height?

    Bald Marion the Drag Queen doesn’t have the quite the same cachet!!

    FYI – from ten months ago………..:

    On August 17, 2013 at 8:40 am,
    Dennis M. O’Neil says:

    ARE WE GETTING AHEAD (A HEAD) OF OURSELVES – What is all the talk of bubbles and frothiness?
    Personally I would like to see a rally before seeing a bubble.
    The recent price action is nice for the trading position but serves only as a crude tourniquet for core positions.
    Before we get A HEAD/ahead of ourselves and see gold being a frothy bubble maybe we should examine where it may go from here?
    Take a look at the 8 year and 10 year gold charts.
    http://www.kitco.com/charts/techcharts_gold.html
    In 2008 – August 2009 you saw the complete formation of a massive reverse head and shoulders which gave way at the end of 09. This pattern many times referred to formed relative to a waterline/resistance area around $1000. In the fall of 08 gold bottomed briefly touching $680. From the October 08 bottom through August 09 gold spot retraced from the bottom to the waterline. A near perfect reverse head & shoulders pattern formed. A higher volume bottom ($720) a $280 spread between what was resistance and this bottom. The briefly visited piercing of the $700 level reveals a $320 spread from top to bottom.
    As the theory goes with reverse head and shoulders when the resistance level breaks you can expect a rally equal to the spread tallied during the formation of the pattern.
    So when you add $280- $320 to the $1000 resistance level wala you see exactly where gold went in 2010 and the first half of 2011 without much to say.
    Subtracting the bottom figure from the top resistance of the pattern and then adding the result to the waterline resistance level you arrive at the following (1000-680=320) (1000 plus 320 = 1320)
    Or $1320 gold
    ARE WE GETTING “A HEAD/AHEAD” OF OURSELVES

    So if you were bullish gold in 08 and saw the buying opportunity of the depressed price at the bottom you could have picked up $680 to $720 AU and profiting almost 40 to 50% on the return to resistance and another 40 to 50% on the break out of the reverse head and shoulders pattern taking gold to $1320. What happened in the summer of 2011 was a gravy train. You did not need to know you were buying the bottom of some chartist’s coveted pattern. All you needed to know was that you were buying value without much concern to price.
    Before we do get A HEAD/ahead of ourselves let us just put in play the same dynamics to the recent market…..in other words what if we just saw a bottom similar to 08’s?
    Similar to the spring of 08 when Gold traded briefly above $1000 this early spike was dismissed in considering the near perfect pattern. Similarly the August 11 spike to 1920 will not be considered the waterline/resistance level for this calculation.
    Instead I will look at the $1760 level as an important level of what could be the waterline resistance seen in a potential left shoulder. This level was/has been flirted with twice in ’11 and twice more in 2012. This yet to be proved pattern bottom spiked to below $1200 but to be conservative in a not so conservative consideration let us use the 14dma low level at $1250. Subtracting $1250 from $1760 you arrive at $510. Adding $510 to $1760 would bring us to $2270 gold. The result is a forecast price of $2270 gold with the expectation of arriving at that level in approximately 24 months.
    From top to bottom this pattern is twice as large as 08 to 09.
    The potential left shoulder took as long to form as the entire pattern in 08-09 and should take a similar amount of time to complete if it in fact does.
    Warning…..If you look at a chart long enough you begin to see things!
    A rhyme/repeat of the 08-09 reverse head and shoulders on a 2x more massive scale would be nice.
    My point only today is it is a bit early to be referencing bubbles and frothiness in the metal markets after what it has been through. During the period under consideration to date the Fed has quintupled its balance sheet. If they stop easing their bid will be sorely missed in the bond market. With all the hocus-pocus we should expect volatility and hair pulling gyrations. We should expect insane economic contrivances that will make you scratch your head like Colombo. Continued monetary mayhem will likely make the above calculation ultra-conservative…..assuming private property still then exists

  32. On June 22, 2014 at 8:55 pm,
    C says:

    If we all agree that People behave and act according to their belief systems, then the idea that somehow all religions are equal is totally false. For example, the Christian God is the God that sacrifices himself for the love of mankind. On the other hand, the God of Islam is the God of the Sword. Two different Gods with totally different messages: Christianity teaches the use of force only as a last resort for self defense. Islam teaches the use of force to convert and submit to the Koranic laws. Christianity teaches to forgive and love ; Islam teaches to stone and kill: the adulterous woman is one example. Again neither have the same theological teaching, nor the same God: one is enlightened the other is retarded…

    Islam Creates Monsters Says Psychologist:
    http://guardianlv.com/2014/05/islam-creates-monsters-says-psychologist/

  33. On June 23, 2014 at 4:24 am,
    Birdman says:

    Anyone recall last month BofA called for selling of gold. Their assessment was that gold could not exceed 1331 and that its trend was still down. Now we get to see with what accuracy Macneil Curry made that prediction. He had written:

    “It is time to sell Gold. The range trade / consolidation of the past month is drawing to a conclusion. Further gains should not exceed 1315.70 (May-05 high) AND CAN’T EXCEED the Mar-14 high at 1331. Downside targets are seen to 1215″.

    And then this from Zerohedge yesterday where Mr Currey wrote:

    “After several weeks, Gold is setting up for a sell, US Treasuries are set to resume their bear trend, and the USD is set to resume its bull trend. Get ready…” is the ominous warning BofAML’s Macneil Curry sets forth in his technical treatise this weekend.”

    The thing is, he may be right. He has sure got my support on his dollar call so it begs to reason he has got it right on gold too. I know nobody on this site wants to hear that but from the technicals on view, and with the price of gold declining today right on target it is well within reason that gold should settle back to a lower point in the range.

    Curry’s call last month that gold would not exceed the 1315.70 last seen on May 5th was exceeded just slightly by a price nearer 20 dollars. Not perfect but not bad either. Currey as some of you will remember made the call to go short gold back on March 10th 2013. Just days later gold plummeted from its peak wiping out the fortunes of those who had bet wrong and setting off the gold bear we now live with.

    Maybe we ought to heed what he is saying this time as well. Gold is a short today in my view and it is very premature to be celebrating that the gold bear has ended which has been my contention IN SPITE OF the rapid rise in silver last week. That breakout was driven almost solely by short covering (an opportunistic squeeze) which is hardly suggesting conviction in the metals camp.

    In my opinion a better bet for long positioning today is probably coffee and so that is where I shall go. Time will tell if I am correct or not. Should be more satisfying by far though. Mmmmm….coffeeee.

    • On June 23, 2014 at 7:37 am,
      J........the Long.............ootb says:

      Very interesting comments…..I think you are correct when you say….”GET READY”,
      Like always , this market is very interesting, never know when and what the establishment is going to do……But, you depend on one thing…..it will not be the best interest of the bulls or the bear in gold. Pawns in a multiple layer of three D chest.
      This BS market is going to take as many down as they can,,,one thing it will not be good regardless, of which way it goes…

      • On June 23, 2014 at 7:42 am,
        J........the Long.............ootb says:

        Germans surrender to the FEDSTERS………Bundesbank,,says everything ok, and Merkel, with the change of heart, decides that Germans do not need the gold right now,and the New Yorkers can keep it in storage , because it will be safer,…..The Germans will just as France for the gold…………ok, and the game continues…….(see kitco)

  34. On June 23, 2014 at 8:27 am,
    J........the Long.............ootb says:

    JOHN B……………COULD YOU REPOST THE EXECUTIVE ORDERS OF OBAMA……..