Rick Ackerman and Technicals
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You stole my thunder J. Rick has lost his mind if he is saying there is deflation all over the place. I just went to Costco and paid $7 for a jar of jam. You guys are nuts with your deflation comment.
Some believe in it and some don’t!
You have to be delusional to believe in deflation.
Not only food, everything is inflating. My insurance is increasing at 6% a year. My son’s tuition is going up 10% a year. My investment property value is going up 11% plus 7% rental income. Car is more and more expensive. Even my cell phone bill is getting expensive so I had to cancel and shopped for a cheaper plan. I am in Canada and we don’t print as much as US. I go to US every year and I feel the price is up constantly. I still remember when I could purchase gas at 99 cents a gallon just 12 short years ago.
I happen to agree with you and Gil and the rest, Lawrence!
Al, I really don’t get these deflationist economists. How can they look at something black and be able to justify it is white. Is it because of low intelligence, lack of common sense or they really live in a different world. I am not talking about Rick since he believes inflation in a long run anyway. I am really frustrated with these people. They seem to have their eyes closed.
Lawrence,
I kind of don’t understand them either.
Have you guys not seen what European bond yields are like? They are NOT projecting inflation. Do the math. They equation is interest rates less inflation to arrive at real returns. Why are Greek bonds at nearly comatose levels if the institutional buyers believe there is inflation?
y point about the $7 jar of jam was that 5 years ago it would have been $2. 50 years ago would have been 50 cents. Watch a 1940’s movie and a scene in a diner. The daily special of a pork chop and mashed potatoes is 95 cents. When you watch those prices you get a real understanding of how they are burning the barn down. There is definitely not “deflation all over the place.” This panel is becoming elitist.
Don’t agree with your comment about “elitist” if you are referring to the folks on this forum.
It isn’t meant in a derogatory way but definitely elitist. you have to be insane to say there is deflation. Where exactly is it? You guys sound like Al Greenspan or Yellen who say that a little inflation is good for everyone. t is not good for anyone except the government.
gOOd comment Corey…….
He has a lot of good comments, Jerry!
Al, I think Cory is a great asset for your broadcast. Make sure to keep him.
Today we have a “golden cross” in S&P500 daily chart and, tomorow, a “golden cross” in the dolar index to. Preparing a big spike on gold VERY SOON.
US$ Index is being “hung out to dry” right at the 82.6 level I called back on July 31
http://www.kereport.com/2014/07/31/market-commentary-doc-gary/
Come on, Sparky. You should at least wait a few days before you toot your little horn.
ManAboutDallas a.k.a. Sparky
What did I tell you. You tooted your horn a little too soon and see what happened. US$ Index approaching 84.
Gonna discuss this with Doc in about an hour Peter. Thanks!
Several weeks ago I read somewhere that by the end of this decade, 50% of silver production will go into solar which combined with Rick’s comments on Germany’s trend this way would appear to bode well for AG unless an AG substitute can be found.
Last year we were approached by a mid west concern who is tying up land for future wind projects on behalf of utility companies and told that there is either a federal or state mandate that 20% of future energy production must come from alternative sources.
Fortunately here in the NW we have excellent hydro-electric.
The concern above was on a take it or leave it basis and on a very much an adhesion contract basis with no room for negotiation. We left their offer on the table.
Does anyone have a view on costs/benefits of solar vis a vis wind?
I believe that solar will be a good substitute energy source but it cannot provide base load energy. In a long run, I have strong faith in solar. Nobody can take the sun away and we are depleting fossil fuels like mad. Silver will be very valuable due to its unqiue features. That is why I am loading up on physical silver. It is both a valuable resource and money. Even better , it is under valued. I don’t see too many of these type of assets.
John ~ I actually decided to invest in geothermal as my preferred alternative energy investment (solar is my second). I own shares in US GEOTHERMAL [HTM @ $0.64] I think wind energy will be very limited; there are too many negatives: Intermittent source (it has to be windy), Land acquisition, NIMBY response to eyesore, Lots of maintenance, and the death of thousands of birds. Also, solar power based on focused mirrors is also the wrong way to go. Solar (based on silver) is the future. If you have any company suggestions, I would appreciate it. ~ Brian
Brian, I wonder if this silver miner might interest you:
http://www.us-silver.com
So far, it interests me, but I’ve just started to take a closer look at it.
Fantastic ! I’ll research more tonight. I’m wondering how this stayed under my research radar? Thanks again for all of your assistance, Matthew ~ Brian
Funny, I also wondered how I missed it –I had heard of it, but that’s all.
With all-in sustaining costs at $18-$19 per ounce for 2014 (down from $24.24 in 2013), this stock is like an at-the-money call that doesn’t expire. This is exactly the leverage you want if you are confident that the silver price will be higher in months, not years. Leverage is always double edged —at least!
It’s interesting to look at what happened to this stock in 2013. While silver made its high for the year in January, US Silver made its high at $2.18. With silver over $32 and all-in costs at $24, $2+ hardly seemed like a bad price to those who thought silver had bottomed. However, fast-forward to the end of 2013 and you can see what $18 silver can do to a miner with $24 all-in costs: The stock sold for as little as twenty-five cents in December.
With the share price still 75% off the 2013 high and all-in costs now roughly 25% lower and just under the current silver price, the current risk/reward profile has improved immensely.
Total debt is less than the cash they just raised in March, so no problem on that front.
Just a few observations, not a recommendation.
Hi guys, interesting topic. To invest in solar, we must look at energy storage as well. Can you share your knowledge in storage device such as battery? What technology to invest?
Lawrence:
A/C electrical energy must be used or lost as soon as it is generated but it can be transferred on the grids to where it may be needed in seconds thousands of miles away.
The beauty of hydro electricity is that it can be stored at least indirectly by controlling the amount of water that goes through the dam generators and so in that way, large water reservoirs are a type of storage.
Lawrence:
Please understand that I’m at least 2 or 3 million brain cells short of being an electrical engineer. Having said that, I’m assuming that solar panels produce D/C which can be converted to A/C by the utility companies and then passed on to where it is needed on the grid.
It is my further understanding that the best storage batteries contain not only lead but silver as well which again bodes well for future applications of AG. If my assumptions are in error, hopefully there is an EE on this site that will point me in the right direction.
Thanks. Yes, the DC can be, and is, converted to AC and loaded to the grid. This is not a problem. However, due to the fact that battery capacity is so far behind, so solar can only compensate not replacing main energy source since sun only show up partially during the day. I am sure lead based battery is super polluting and is low in capacity compared to most of recent battery, albeit it is the cheapest, it is on its way out (may be used in cars only). I heard that Silver-Zinc battery is many times higher in capacity but it is too expensive so it is only used in space exploration. I cannot imagine silver be used in battery since it will deplete world silver in days. I am engineer by training but not in EE field. Too bad. I was doing superconductivity research for a few years. One goal of superconductor is to store electricity but it has never materialized.
If silver is really projected to be in such a shortage then a lot of new mines will open just to increase supply once the right price point is hit.
Brian:
I too owned U.S.Geothermal but got out of it when I researched geothermal and discovered that there are so very few practical sites available to mine in NA. NZ is different as they produce a good deal of energy this way.
Thanks John. I’l look into it deeper. I know HTM is a small company, and would remain so. Hopefully, with a small profit and eventually bought by a larger company.
People? You have GOT to understand this “inflation / deflation” debate is NOT a choice between one or the other. It is NOT an “either / or” paradigm. An economy can have inflation in some areas, deflation in others, and at the same time. So the relevant discussion and subsequently the decisions about “What to do”? come down to understanding what part of the economy is being affected, and in what way, by either inflation OR deflation. Any other sort of “analysis” is just sophistry.
If we care about definitions, it IS either/or. The GENERAL price level is either rising or it isn’t. The net money supply is either growing or it isn’t.
Btw, one can be wrong without being a sophist.
Agreed MAD. To say there is “deflation all over the place” is simply not true. Where it really matters to most people EVERYTHING is inflated. Where is affects government there is too much deflation.
Yes MAD it’s a question of what to do. According to KWN Hershey bars have gone up 8%. Likewise with Smuckers jam (9%). Same thing going on here although often most often disguised as shrinkflation. But the main U.K supermarkets are now also engaged in a do or die war, where ones like Morrisons are busy reducing prices just to increase footfall. Waitrose (the up-market food-storeis doing lots of deals for members, e/g/ a free Guardain newspaper at £1.60 if you send £5, etc.You can also still get fresh bread at the end of the day from Asdas for a penny a loaf! But such bargains are not auspicious methinks.
I’m aware of what’s going on in retail there in the UK, ‘Rev. I listen to Classic FM out of London over the internet so I hear all the commercials for various retail establishments who advertise via the “radio”. Sounds as though retail is about to implode, and badly, over there. Just as here.
Cutting throat competition may singnal the over capacity of retail industry.
If the population is getting poorer, retail industry will suffer dearly. It will shrink in size downsizing. Eventualy fittist survives.
People are no longer fit; obesity prevails Piece on tonight’s Channel 4 news about well over 1m householders eating less to pay rent or of allowing their children to eat even if it’s two or three plates of Cornflakes daily. Despite pleading poverty many of those families are gross physically.
Trouble is no-one grows their own veg anymore, and the new poor have grown to assume that smart phones and flat screen TVs play an essential part of everyday living. Nothing is repairable. Everything’s throw-away – literally, given how litter and household waste can be discarded anywhere people can get away with it.
Does anyone here own TILL Capital Ltd or have an opinion about it?
It’s trading at about half of its book value and has a market cap well below its cash and securities. It also looks like its breaking out…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TIL.V&p=W&yr=4&mn=3&dy=0&id=p05794036142
Based on my 60 minute daily charts, SLV is on new buy signals.
Sorry, should read “60 minute AND daily charts.”
Thanks Matthew.
Yes! SLV probably to the 50 ema
Does Rick have any data studies or facts of what is really happening deflation-wise, like John Williams at ShadowStats, or is this deflation thing just his “opinion”?
Here’s a take on the deflation question…Very good interview…
Thanks Gator – Great post: Berwick’s 5 killer bees with which to counter the coming collapse: Bitcoin, bullion, bullets, medical marijuana, and BEING (taking care of oneself, family by BEING READY).
Deflation on things people do not need. Inflation on food, is for real.