Weekend Show – Sat 20 Sep, 2014

Gold, Silver and the Conventional Markets

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* This is Dan Kurz, investment adviser for Naples Asset Management.  My remarks today are general in nature.  They are personal observations based on global financial, economic, and political developments and trends.  My observations are topical on the date made and reference asset valuations, interest rates, and inflation rates as of the same day only.  I am not soliciting business. I would welcome follow-up discussions with listeners/potential clients as regards strategic portfolios should they be interested and assuming my firm is duly licensed in the listener’s state

Al KorelinCory FleckBron SucheckiRichard PostmaWendell ZerbBill Howald
Dan KurzPeter Grandich
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  1. On September 20, 2014 at 1:15 am,
    CFS says:

    Re: Segment 5:
    I got the impression that folks at those shows were a little depressed.
    I really dislike the way that juniors sell out (like Cayden) at these low valuations. Even at a 40% premium that stinks for long-term shareholders that have seen significant drops. Someone who is an investor who has held through a 33% drop in share price, for example, needs a 50% premium to see a profit.
    Is the stock market there to finance companies or for a place for gamblers to speculate?
    Companies need to realize that if they want to encourage long-term investors they should be careful about accepting offers when the market is so depressed. Otherwise we are likely to end up with mostly speculators who will dump stocks at the first sign of a bear and so depress stock prices that companies will cease to survive.
    Also I notice that for Cayden that 3 insiders of the company also made purchases of stock in the month before the sale was made. Large purchases by insiders or grants of options just before any sale concern me.

    • On September 20, 2014 at 2:33 am,
      Vortex says:

      CFS, very interesting your comments, since we both are/were shareholders I agree completely. I would say much more about this obscenity but it would be inappropriate.

      Millions for the CEO and the boys at the top and bread crumbs for Joe & Jane six-pack shareholder.

      A sector always looking for respect but can never find any………look no further than the common shareholders.


      • On September 20, 2014 at 4:55 am,
        Bobby says:

        Well guys, this has been going on for years and seems to be the alturnastive to dilution.

      • On September 20, 2014 at 7:44 am,
        Dick Tracy says:

        I think it’s time you looked closely at the tea leaves and exited the markets, very few other then highly disciplined and experienced speculators can make money in the resource sector. I started exiting about two months ago, it’s just too unpredictable and nerve racking. I have a few stink bids in which I lowered yesterday. I now sleep much better.

  2. On September 20, 2014 at 1:49 am,
    Andrew de Berry (Rev) says:

    Delighted Al and Cory that you got Bo Polny on the show in the face of the naysayers! For as he and you say for whatever reason seven year cycles are significant, and not uncommon. Another famous example of this is found in Genesis 41 when Joseph interprets Pharaoh’s dream. Briefly told, the ruler dreams of seven fat fine looking cows getting eaten by seven thin ugly ones, and Joseph who’s been in prison up until then is asked to interpret the dream: Egypt has enjoyed 7 years of great plenty…fertile fields, rich harvests, etc. But Joseph warns that 7 years of famine and drought are about to follow, and unless provision is made for this (storing grain in barns, etc) then the whole country will wither and die. To store grain over those seven years of drought was no different from taking out insurance.
    So for seven years of a rising stock market read ‘Crash’ to be followed by a rising cycle of gold and silver prices. Right now the gold market looks emaciated and wholly unloved, but it’s the bloated stock market that won’t last. The same point is made by David McAlvany re seven year intervals occurring almost to a two-four rhythm of rising stock markets in 1987, 1994,2000,2007…..
    Minutes 27 through to 31 are especially noteworthy.


    • On September 20, 2014 at 3:44 am,
      Birdman says:

      We entered a secular commodities bear that began in 2011, Andrew. The charts and trends in that respect are quite clear. It is only the reversal within that cycle that will see gold rise to new highs.

      • On September 20, 2014 at 4:58 am,
        Bobby says:

        Yes, somewhere between 19 and 30 years.

      • On September 20, 2014 at 8:22 am,
        Matthew says:
        • On September 20, 2014 at 9:16 am,
          Birdman says:

          It always is for you Matthew!

          • On September 20, 2014 at 10:03 am,
            Matthew says:

            BS BM, and you know it.

          • On September 20, 2014 at 10:30 am,
            Birdman says:

            I was being serious. I can’t recall you ever saying “sell” or being bearish with your charts.

          • On September 20, 2014 at 12:06 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Bird, real traders don’t need my opinion. I think it could be a disservice open to misinterpretation to tell a general audience to get in and out based on short term concerns.
            I do remember telling MAD that I was a seller not a buyer in July when he assumed otherwise. Reporting on strong action alone made a few people here think I was advocating new buying, which I was not.

          • On September 20, 2014 at 2:11 pm,
            Birdman says:

            That’s all you could come up with after three whole hours of searching? HA HA!!

          • On September 20, 2014 at 2:27 pm,
            Birdman says:

            “I think it could be a disservice open to misinterpretation to tell a general audience to get in and out based on short term concerns.” — Matthew

            Really? Then why did you write “Now is a good time to start buying” in the post above with an accompanying proof to make your case? Who do you think your audience is? Why would you make a statement like that if, as you assert, that professional traders don’t need your advice? That sounds to me like an admission that you know you are pumping sunshine to novices and those who are not experienced….

            So basically then you are indeed doing a disservice to a general audience exactly as you suggested. It is far from certain that gold markets and miners have stabilized and are really about to be a great buy.

            Lets just keep in mind that gold has fallen almost 130 bucks since the start of July and looks to be heading to meet or possibly even break below the old support line at 1179.

            This is a BEAR MARKET Matthew. Not your little circus for the uninitiated. Try to behave responsibly.

          • On September 20, 2014 at 4:37 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Bird— For big-picture investors ESPECIALLY it makes sense to accumulate when the stocks they’re interested in suddenly get much cheaper. Anyone who bought GDXJ around the December lows is STILL up 20% or more even if they completely ignored all the volatility and didn’t trade a single share. Even those who bought near the June, 2014 low and didn’t take any profits is still up about 11%.
            Btw, no one should do anything because of what I say. My comments should be taken as food for thought and nothing else. I am always looking for an education myself and there are too many people to list that have provided me with very beneficial food for thought.

          • On September 20, 2014 at 10:46 pm,
            Birdman says:

            Oh I see…..so the advice is not for professionals and also is not for novices but instead it is for BIG PICTURE INVESTORS. Let me guess……They are also the “smart money” that you keep talking about.

            You were saying almost the exact same things back when gold was at 1550 too, Matt. Now here it is almost 350 dollars lower. What about when an ounce drops below 1000 which is virtually guaranteed given the trends in the dollar and commodities?

            Will that December 2013 purchase look good then? It is pretty convenient that you always choose the time of the best price as your sample and then claim you called it as the bottom. Especially when you ALWAYS say to buy no matter what the price is at. Whether 1550 or 1200 or sub 1000 gold should always be acquired according to you.

            That is not what I call finesse. Bulldozers meet cliffs and swamps the same way.

          • On September 20, 2014 at 11:25 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Pay attention for once. I’ve been very clear that I am NOT a buyer of gold and haven’t been for many years. not only did I sell gold on the 2011 spike, but I sold more gold in April for a little less than $1320. While you are fixated on the dollar price, I price gold in terms of what I want to buy. As the chart linked below shows, gold has doubled since its 2011 USD high if you price it in miners. In fact, gold has spent the last year or more near a 100 year high vs the miners.
            I never said that I called any bottoms, I just nailed them with my bigger purchases.

            Do you know the difference between investing, trading, and speculating? I don’t think so. I wonder if you even have a brokerage account. I also have to wonder if you’re really just a full-time troll.

          • On September 21, 2014 at 3:38 am,
            Birdman says:

            As a matter of fact I am paying close attention to you lately. You are without a doubt the biggest gold pumper on the site and you rarely miss an opportunity to come up with a positive spin no matter how badly the market is getting hit.

            And now we find out you are not even a buyer of gold!!!! Note to all, Matthew is NOT a gold buyer.

            So what’s the deal with your recent typical comment that “Now is a good time to start buying”. Who is that for Matthew? The more I read from you the more I am convinced you come either with an insiders agenda or you are a broker. You might deny it but in my opinion you are amongst the worst examples of the people who entice the inexperienced into deep waters with your ever-prepared sage advice.

            And the worst part…some of these guys really respect your opinion and trust your advice.

            Well I don’t. You are unmasked as a promoter today since you admit you don’t even buy.

          • On September 21, 2014 at 9:29 am,
            Matthew says:

            Everyone knows that I am referring to miners when I give my “buy” OPINIONS.
            If you really had paid attention, you’d know that I like silver way more than gold at this time. I have stated that, while gold is a buy relative to the Dow/S&P, it is a sell compared to the miners. I have used the following chart to illustrate how expensive gold is compared to the miners.

        • On September 20, 2014 at 12:27 pm,
          CFS says:

          My advice is only accumulate slowly, because this will NOT be a V shape turnaround, and may take longer than most folks expect.
          Make sure any companies you buy can outlast these bad times.

        • On September 20, 2014 at 5:33 pm,
          Bobby says:

          I expect a washout soon, maybe by month end. Once the selling starts we will begin to see the $100.00 days, problem being they will be down. Who knows where silver will go after hitting $15.00.

          • On September 20, 2014 at 6:24 pm,
            SD Marc says:

            Bobby…Great those comments are DEFINITELY THE BOTTOM TALKING…:)

          • On September 20, 2014 at 8:35 pm,
            Lawrence says:

            It is good that all QE effect is drained out of silver. I remember I was buying $15 in 2007. It is to say that QE never happened as long as long silver is concerned. It was $21.5 in March 2008. It is like someone sell you insurance after your house has burned down. A lot of people still try to find bargain price. Unbelievable.

          • On September 20, 2014 at 11:41 pm,
            Matthew says:

            I agree. Unbelievable.

    • On September 20, 2014 at 5:02 am,
      Bobby says:

      Cory, who’s next? Mr. Gold himself?

      • On September 20, 2014 at 5:33 am,
        Birdman says:

        Peter Schiff? Ha! He won’t come here anymore. Not now anyway. The trend is NOT his friend.

        • On September 20, 2014 at 7:49 am,
          Dick Tracy says:

          I believe Peter Schiff is right about QE being the next interest rate debacle, when it is scaled back to zero can The US economy survive a few months without the stimulus. We shall see.

          • On September 20, 2014 at 8:35 am,
            Lawrence says:


            According to Gregory Mannarino, there is no taper. It is simply changed to behind the scene. From Belgium treasury purchase to the surprise bond strength, it might be true. I don’t care anymore, since from stats to policies, governments increasingly hide the truth and deploy propaganda. I lived through the communist era so I know what government will do when they have power and the need. It just feels like it. I love what Bernanke descibes the FOMC – FED Open Mouth Committee. He mean it!

          • On September 20, 2014 at 8:48 am,
            Dick Tracy says:

            Lawrence, if they would only leave the markets alone; however you are correct.

        • On September 20, 2014 at 8:30 am,
          Bill says:

          Right again. Just another gold pumper that pumbled his readers.

        • On September 20, 2014 at 10:26 am,
          Bobby says:

          Schiff is a gold banker. Mr gold is James Sinclair.

        • On September 20, 2014 at 12:12 pm,
          glenfidish says:

          Peter schiff is a legend in my books! Like him or not it is the main reason why this young lad started investing. At least he speaks the truth and enlightens the world about the dispicable manners and the way most politicians/bankers and powerful soulless elite steal from the average citizen. He brings it out to light for the uninformed.

          Leave perter alone :).

          Bring him on al.. Will be hard.

          • On September 20, 2014 at 4:41 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Peter knows what he’s talking about, PERIOD. His detractors? Not so much…
            Al has had him on before and has moderated panels that included him, so it shouldn’t be too difficult.

          • On September 20, 2014 at 11:20 pm,
            Birdman says:

            Matthew 7:15
            “Watch out for false prophets. They come to you in sheep’s clothing, but inwardly they are ferocious wolves”.

          • On September 21, 2014 at 12:00 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Matthew 7:16

            On July 16, 2014 at 1:54 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Dumb money can’t seem to grasp that price pullbacks are a fact of life even in an uptrend.

    • On September 20, 2014 at 8:10 am,
      Dick Tracy says:

      Andrew, those will be comforting words for Irish Tony, he is silver rich and cash poor, so much so that he has to move his precious metal around in a cart pulled by a mule. Some day hopefully he will have the very last laugh when he drives around in his silver phantom Rolls Royce.

    • On September 20, 2014 at 8:22 pm,
      HEAVYHITTER says:

      I agree ☆Andrew☆.

      I believe Bo will be right. Not sure about a real big
      launch I just hope this gold bull can break out now.

      With some good energy. I guess we can say we need
      some nice pops. Take out 1450 or near that number.

      If not, I’m really not going to like it. These false starts
      are getting old. Its OK but this bull needs to get up.

      Anyway, thats my opinion now. Matthew looks like
      he could use some back up in here. I was forced to
      post in this bear raided forum. Not something I wanted
      to do. I don’t know what your doing and I’m sure your
      getting tired of rescue missions. We’re trying real hard
      to be good but we have lots of pressure now. Just wanted
      you to know and you might have to take things in your own
      hands now. Might spin out of control if you don’t. Thanks
      ☆Andrew☆ you might have to step in now. OK :◆}

  3. On September 20, 2014 at 1:55 am,
    Andrew de Berry (Rev) says:
  4. On September 20, 2014 at 4:06 am,
    Birdman says:

    “You’re either on board or you miss the ride” — Dan Kurz
    So in other words, buy now or forever miss the bottom? Dan, do you have any idea how long we have been listening to this kind of logic already? Since 1900 dollars if you did not know and in all that time it was ALWAYS time to buy or be priced out forever.

    Like most others you all ASSUME you know where the bottom is (imminent as usual) and secondly that as soon as a bottom arrives gold will immediately launch much higher in price and volumes. Both those guesses are hazard to the health of buyers just as they have been for more than four years in the case of silver.

    The only thing I will agree with is that we are closer to a bottom than a top. I do not agree that either gold or silver have much in the way of a stellar future until at least the time when we get a serious stock market correction. That appears to be a long way off, possible as much as two years.

    It is therefore imprudent to encourage anyone to take new positions in precious metals until there is at least a glimmer of a turnaround. The fear mongering that suggest those who don’t get in now and will be left behind is a very poor strategy for investing because it fails to consider that precious metals may actually trade sideways for a considerable period of time before they resume an uptrend of importance.

    In fact, that is exactly what I expect will unfold as golds volatility drops.

    • On September 20, 2014 at 5:00 am,
      Bobby says:

      Heard this throughout the early/mid 80’s as well. We all know that trtuned out.

      • On September 20, 2014 at 5:27 am,
        Birdman says:

        Indeed Bobby. I was there too and recall it well. The story never changes does it? After gold and silver crashed in 81 the BS really began heating up. It went on relentlessly for almost two decades until gold finally did stage a breakout and start shooting up to old highs. Why would anyone forget that lesson? Secondly, what makes them so sure this time is really going to be different. I think gold will be flat for at least a year minimum but may not actually perform again for almost two more years. That is a lot of time to be spinning your tires hoping for the good old days to come back. Some of these fools are again just dying to see gold rising for more than a dozen years in a row. Talk about misguided. What these guys NEVER get is that commodities (including precious metals) are following cycles that run in long waves of many years at a time. It is only periodic cyclical opportunities along the way that will be rewarding. So those who follow the sirens, I say listen to them and heed the calls at your own risk because most of these guys really have no idea what they are talking about.

    • On September 20, 2014 at 8:34 am,
      Bill says:

      I agree again Bird.
      If you listen to guys like Bob Moriarty you will lose your shirt short and socks.
      There are a small few that understand and their never posted on these web sites.
      Birdman, start you own web site man!!!! You got these guys beat hands down.

      • On September 20, 2014 at 10:20 am,
        Birdman says:

        If only gold bear sites could develop a following. Closest I ever saw was Dan Norcini’s gold commentary but clubbing the metals Harp seals over the head is really just a sideline for him (and one he seems to really relish)

    • On September 20, 2014 at 8:38 am,
      Ryan J. says:

      The divergence between precious metals and miners versus the conventional stock markets has only been greater in the late 1990s, and even in that case, not by much. Markets do not move in a straight line down or up and I for one am seeing way too many people who think that gold, even if it is in a secular bear market, will just keep breaking down in a straight line forever– while I also am seeing way too many people saying that the conventional stock market (even if it is in a secular bull market) will likewise just keep moving up in a straight line.
      This is the old mistake of taking out a ruler and extrapolating a current trend indefinitely out into the future, and it usually the exact wrong thing to do. Just ask many fellow gold bulls in September 2011.
      Bottoming is a process, and yes, it can take a couple of years, but everything I have ever learned or experienced about a market tells me that this is a bottom– including the fact that the bulls like myself have been vanquished. This always happens at bottoms– the guys who were wrong on the way down are suddenly right when no one thinks it, and the amazing gurus who called the trend correctly on the way up and who could never do any wrong– suddenly find their hot hands going cold. You are correct that bottoms are not often V-shaped, but do you really think that people should be avoiding gold right now to chase the stock market, high yield market, or high end real estate markets?

      • On September 20, 2014 at 10:42 am,
        SD Marc says:

        Dr. Ryan and ALL
        Your logic is so TRUE and steadfast that people overlook the obvious. We are at or coming out of a bottom…pure and simple…guys like Birdman are right until they are wrong… You, me and Matthew are wrong until we are right (yes, Irish, Jerry OOTB too.) People are making money in the conventional maket – I am not. End of story – BUT I DID buy another condo in PB at the BOTTOM of the market..it makes me over 1100 a month and is up nice in BS equity..:) goody gumdrops…MY JOB is to stay solvent, hang in there until this thing turns and it will – then I can listen to birdman chirp about how much money he is making in the PM’s when the bull market resumes….:0….oh, goody

        • On September 20, 2014 at 11:22 pm,
          Birdman says:

          Bulls make money, Bears make money….sheep get sheared.

          • On September 21, 2014 at 11:51 am,
            J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:

            BAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHH. Bird, sheep need a herder, sheep are followers, to the top , and to the bottom, ……Leaders are seldom found in the sheep herding business. IT, tAKES time to grow the wool back, after being fleeced by a Corrupt FED, who has the brilliance of a burned out wick. …Raise AL-Packas…, they are a little taller and can clime mountains, and endure cold weather……The BEEF market is closed for the holidays. Bear season starts in Canada, in the Fall………lol…best J….

    • On September 20, 2014 at 9:01 am,
      SFC says:

      So in other words, buy now or forever miss the bottom?

      I dunno…what’s the saying about catching a falling knife…the last time I went fishing for a bottom things got pretty smelly.

    • On September 21, 2014 at 5:45 am,
      nyc says:

      hey bird…ok so we bottom at 900 or 800 or whatever # in the spring and then have 2 years of nothing, no movement nada until inflation comes, we should have a long goldilocks period with usd strength then a nirvana all is great for an extended time in the economy. this will leave pm,s in no where land for a long time. I agree with you. and also the miners will need many to merge and many consolidate or go out.

  5. On September 20, 2014 at 4:14 am,
    Birdman says:

    Seriously, I have always had trouble reconciling the poor logic of those who have a love for gold and silver. What so many of them say just defies reason. We need to be much more calculated and a lot colder where our money is concerned. The emotional content present in most posts and interviews with hardened gold bugs is a detriment to their success. Why so few seem to want to trade momentum is a mystery to me. Well, the momentum has been DOWN for three years for gold and it continues to be down. This is called a bear market for a good reason and in fact most of the money has been made by those taking the bear side of the trade. Some others have reported here previously just what impressive results they achieved. To call the shorts rewarding is a pretty big understatement. I think the correct strategy here is to monitor gold for signs of life before committing resources to an rising from the grave that may or may not be coming for quite some time.

    • On September 20, 2014 at 8:35 am,
      Bill says:

      LOL. Bob M calls it a correction. OMG.

      • On September 20, 2014 at 2:08 pm,
        Birdman says:

        Ding ding ding!

        • On September 20, 2014 at 6:43 pm,
          HEAVYHITTER says:

          Bang a gong…the gold bear is…….

          DEAD. :◆}

          btw…its getting real hot in here.

          Lots of smoke too. Way to much hot air
          coming out of gold bear pie holes.


          • On September 20, 2014 at 11:32 pm,
            Birdman says:

            Psalm 31:6

            “I hate those who pay regard to worthless idols, but I trust in the Lord”.

          • On September 21, 2014 at 7:13 am,
            HEAVYHITTER says:


            Watch out for the green. USDX

            The Lord comes first.

            Where your treasure is, where your heart will be also.

            Where is your treasure ?

        • On September 21, 2014 at 5:41 pm,
          Bill says:

          It’s marbles in his head hiring the scrap metal.

          • On September 21, 2014 at 9:02 pm,
            HEAVYHITTER says:

            This is coming from a guy who operates on one brain cell.

            Oh I’m sorry, is it two. Lucky guy like you.

  6. On September 20, 2014 at 4:22 am,
    Birdman says:

    To Cory…. gold is not a contrarian trade until it shows it has potential to start going up again. The long list of people who are contrarians and lost their shirts in the process is endless. We only hear stories about those who succeeded with long shot bets but not a word is ever breathed about contrarians who got bankrupted in the gutter. What I am saying is that you need to be very calculated before embarking on a buying spree in metals and you should be confident that the odds line up your strongly in your favour.

    • On September 21, 2014 at 5:49 am,
      nyc says:

      thanks bird…I agree, could be a long wait. hope this site will still be here, appreciate it and all very much

  7. On September 20, 2014 at 4:56 am,
    Steven says:

    Here is something that just might have an effect on the markets. Political scandal and crime.

    • On September 20, 2014 at 5:05 am,
      Bobby says:

      No one really speaks of how close the vote was 45-55. This country is divided.

      • On September 20, 2014 at 6:02 am,
        Steven says:

        With vote counters counting yes votes as no votes the official results must be considered to be a fraud. An honest recount or re-vote is required.

        • On September 20, 2014 at 9:25 am,
          CFS says:

          This, alas, is what happens when no ID is required to vote.

          There was some fraud, but The amount, I believe was not sufficient to change the result.

          Results from outer islands, where it is actually difficult to fix results were in line with expectations, and results for big cities, where it would be easier commit fraud were slightly more in favor of yes, e.g. Glasgow, but counteracted by more conservative Edinburgh, which was still in favor of No.
          There just was not any statistically meaningful apparent fraud. There were no areas that produced results that stick out as being fraudulent, so in order for fraud to have occurred it would have had to happened in almost all 32 districts, and that kind of conspiracy is impossible to conceal.

          • On September 20, 2014 at 9:53 am,
            Steven says:

            There was some fraud, but The amount, I believe was not sufficient to change the result.

            What a wonderful excuse to avoid a recount and risk upsetting the status quo. “I believe”, is not an excuse to avoid finding the truth.

      • On September 20, 2014 at 4:01 pm,
        Silverbug Dave says:

        A word on the Scottish referendum. I was disappointed that the result wasn’t closer. Average opinion polls were anout 48/52 Yes/No and the final result was 55/45. The BBC bless ’em said it was quite a big defeat but that is BS. It is like a group of 20 people where the vote is 9 yes and 11 no. That is close. The Establisment went into total panic in the last 2-3 weeks as the polls were too close to call and they expected a walkover in favour of the union. So the political big guns all had to rush up to Scotland to discourage and maybe scare the common folk as Doc so astutely pointed out.

        I must admit that I think the turning point was the speech by Gordon Brown the guy who sold 60% of the UK’s gold (Scotland’s share would have been puny). He gave a very impressive speech for the union and delivered it with more passion than anything he ever did as Prime Minister.

        I think a Yes vote would have been great in a way because it would have been very disruptive and would have exposed the corruption at the heart of the system, as negotiations would have likely gone sour on the oil reserves and the share of the gigantic UK national debt, as well as the splitting of all the huge bureaucracies. Oh boy, it would have been a mess! Like if someone puts sugar in you tea or coffee and you say, Actually I don’t take sugar.” Easy to put in but not so easy to get it back out. Basically, you have to throw it down the sink and make another one. The union is like that. Similar with the Euro, very, very messy to get any country out of that without economic disaster one way or another in our gigantic entanglement of lies that consist our political, economic and financial systems.

        No wonder the pound ralled as a ‘No’ looked likely and then happened.

        • On September 20, 2014 at 4:51 pm,
          CFS says:

          Had the Scottish vote been off electoral roles instead of allowing voting down to age 16, the vote would not have been close.
          That was Alex Salmond”s doing.
          When George Brown put in his 2 cents just on the eave of the election there was a significant swing.

    • On September 20, 2014 at 3:57 pm,
      Silverbug Dave says:

      Bolloxtube possibly. There are always conspiracy theorists with nothing better to do.

    • On September 20, 2014 at 4:03 pm,
      Silverbug Dave says:

      Hmmm, that video has loads of breaks in it like showing the same couple of seconds over and over and over again.

      Like Ann Barnheard’s video showing the Pope not genuflecting in his first mass. She concluded that the end of the world was about to occur. In fact, llook at it properly and he bowed after raising the bread and genuflected after raising the wine and did it so far down that he went completely below the level of the top of the altar. These people see what they want to see.

  8. On September 20, 2014 at 5:10 am,
    Ken says:

    Well you’ve seent he dollar rally like I discussed many times. I would suggest the .90 cent level is the next stop after a hard rest here for a month.

    The gold conspiracy stuff is nothing but a surge in USD. Clive has a wonderfu assessment on this..


    The point here is gold stops 1180 will be taken out IMHO. Big money can’t enter on strength, it always blows out stops and take the trade.

    I will buy hard at this interval. Big money is telegraphing this event…. Listen to it…

    I tell you one thing, the inflationistas look pretty silly as oil goes to 30-40$ this next year…..

    The commodity complex is near crash mode like 2007-2008. We need this to flush the last goldbugs out…

    I am not against gold or silver at all, I believe int hem as a trade and as way to bribe the prison guard in the concentration camp to free my family.

    I am against hucksters who lose people money and say it is money…

    It isn’t – it a form of money big difference
    happy days

    • On September 20, 2014 at 9:29 am,
      CFS says:

      You better hope that oil does not go to $30-$40, because if it does there will be immense shortages.

      • On September 20, 2014 at 12:03 pm,
        CFS says:

        Sooner or later we will see sanctions decrease output from Iran and ISIS.

        ISIS is selling millions of barrels a day it seems; either sanctions a some bombs on pipelines could shut that supply off, and the current glut on the market could disappear almost overnight.

        • On September 20, 2014 at 12:21 pm,
          glenfidish says:

          It doesn’t matter about isis or iran or saudia arabia etc.. Deflation tells oil what direction to move in.

      • On September 20, 2014 at 12:19 pm,
        glenfidish says:

        CFS they have been calling for shortaged since i was born. Not trying to be a dick but i called for much lower gold few months back while bird had it going to the moon.. Wti will break into 80s first. Ken has a valid point. Oil will lead the deflation down and polny is wrong that we will go up this time. Initially we will get hammered then we will decouple and go up. That’s how i see it. oil has a date will much lower prices very soon.

        • On September 20, 2014 at 1:48 pm,
          Birdman says:

          I had gold going to the moon? Are you getting me mixed up with someone else?

    • On September 20, 2014 at 10:47 am,
      SD Marc says:

      You are one smart dude – until you are not. paper currency in NOT MONEY dude! Ok, study your history -look at facts…someday the Chinese, Russians, European satelitte countries – GERMANY – are going to make you look like a fool…but until then – you got the floor and I a have nothing to say. See, this is my frustration with cyclical bear markets within secular bull markets – guys like YOU having all the fun..HA!

      • On September 20, 2014 at 11:38 am,
        Ken says:

        If paper isn’t money then what will electronic money be? The monetarist argument of 5000 year gold nonsense has been killed, smashed, rubbed out, etc.

        We are in a new world where virtual currencies will be the form of trade. Paper money is money…

        I can’t believe you guys sometimes. The good news is our forefathers fought wars so each of us could choose..

        I choose to have many forms of currency…..

        Those folks who bought gold at 1900 as everyone said the sky was the limit have no learned that this is not true…..

        There is a limit. It is far easier to trade the VIX either way and leave the chuck wagons to the gold bugs as they get robbed on teh way to the grocery store.

        I really wish you well. I really do..

        But the 1oz brick ain’t gonna fit in that Iphone to well as your merchant moves away from of paper and all forms of currency except e-money……

        You best think about that. The extremes are for extremists – most people aren’t but seem to act like they are..

        That is why we have nutters like ISIS and other nutbar groups

      • On September 20, 2014 at 12:26 pm,
        glenfidish says:


        lets not call anyone names. You both make valid points. The way I see it and this coming from a guy who loves his gold is, money is what the people in power “the elite” want it to be at that given moment. At this point it is paper currency that dominates. Until proven wrong while im still alive i will see it that way and if needed and the moment comes, i have some bullion in my safe.

        • On September 20, 2014 at 7:36 pm,
          Dick Tracy says:

          I don’t know whether it’s safe in your safe. When they come for it whomever that might be you will here this, “please give us the combination, well then do you wish to resist. I think you can figure the rest out.

  9. On September 20, 2014 at 5:32 am,
    Birdman says:

    I agree Ken…the inflationistas are looking like damned fools lately especially as commodities have turned down so hard recently and debt has turned up to historical excesses. And yet they still keep blithering on about tomatoes and milk and cheese and tuition as if that is all that matters.

  10. On September 20, 2014 at 6:27 am,
    jhpace1 says:

    What Birdman and Ken are not observing is the manipulation, or “soft” control of our marketplace. This isn’t a few multi-billionaires or trillionaires manipulating the markets. This is government manipulating the markets, and those who control government. It’s not just “get me re-elected” but “get me more power over the people”. They are annihilating anything that interrupts their fiat currency game, namely the alternatives/yardsticks gold, silver, and oil.

    We live again in the days of the king Louis XXIII of France having absolute power over his court and the people, and he built extravagant palaces on the people’s money. Or the days of John Law, whose paper was destroying France. Remember Prince de Conti! He tried to get out of Law’s paper and was told to return the gold “at risk of the extreme displeasure of the Regent Duc d’Orleans”. Government control of the marketplace.

    As for inflation, have you been to the supermarket lately? Here in central NC, USA hamburger is $4.28/pound. Steak $8-11/pound. Gasoline is $3.21/gallon, diesel $3.70/gallon. Gasoline and diesel just never went down all summer, they stayed at the same price, give or take a dime. That’s not deflation. A lower rate of inflation is not deflation.

    This is going to continue until something breaks. Something like physical delivery. It will happen first between governments to governments, then between governments to people.

    • On September 20, 2014 at 7:23 am,
      Birdman says:

      I don’t buy the manipulation theme. Not on a continuous ongoing daily basis anyway. All I need is the basic data on long term trends and I can see that these keep playing out fairly uniformly over time (with and without the Federal Reserve or all the other so-called culprits) such that the business cycle itself remains intact. I posted a long term bond chart some days back that showed there was little evidence of a major difference between when the Fed was involved in rate setting and when it was not. So we would hit a bottom with or without them in other words. The whole manipulation accusation stinks. And not just because it is unproven on any widespread basis but because it makes no sense with regard to cyclical trends that repeat regardless of who is in charge.

    • On September 20, 2014 at 7:26 am,
      Birdman says:

      Some of you conspiracy people are simply unbelievably gullible and naive as I see it. You will follow any Pied Piper crying foul before ever making an actual effort to review the data for yourselves. Basically you are all blamers with no interest in managing your own accounts responsibly. It is totally pathetic.

      • On September 20, 2014 at 8:24 am,
        jhpace1 says:

        The US dollar has never been backed with gold after 1913 for the American people and after 1972 for the rest of the world. For gold to back the trillions of US Dollars it would have to be more than $10,000/ounce (http://www.shtfplan.com/precious-metals/the-shadow-gold-price-10000-an-ounce_07212011). Yet people keep using it, despite the disparity! What faith they have in military-industrial-narco-political force!

        What have have is the world’s reserve currency being devalued by deprecation, which should show up as inflation by things that cannot be depreciated, but not when the power of the gun keeps the “yardsticks” from appreciating. So what results is a shell game among the promoters of the status quo and fantasy as reality for everyone else. Mine owners are browbeaten by the banks that loan them money and the governments that allow them to operate.

        Give me a free market without covert or overt manipulation and I’ll take my lumps on my own mistakes. But if I buy a stock and then the government outlaws me owning that stock, or making a profit on it, then it’s not my fault if I lose money, it’s the government’s force being used on me. “If you can’t beat ’em, join ’em.” I don’t know who to bribe or praise at my level to be “allowed” to make money in this manipulated marketplace.

      • On September 20, 2014 at 8:30 am,
        Matthew says:

        Your Pied Piper is obviously Marty Armstrong. Unbelievably pathetic gullibility is seen in those who continue to trust people and entities that have a long history of exploiting the general population in too many ways to count.

        • On September 20, 2014 at 8:55 am,
          Duke says:

          No manipulation? Perhaps you can explain what QE1, 2 and 3 was. Holy cow, that was one of the least intelligent statements I have read on any blog. Yes, that is really saying something.

          • On September 20, 2014 at 9:19 am,
            jhpace1 says:

            I do not follow Martin Armstrong at all. I quit reading him over a year ago, as he relies too much on technical analysis. “Cycles” only hold true outside manipulation from governmental and extra-governmental forces.

          • On September 20, 2014 at 9:35 am,
            Matthew says:

            Sorry, my comment was directed at Birdman. Of course there’s manipulation (which, in my book, spells opportunity).

          • On September 20, 2014 at 10:00 am,
            Matthew says:

            Perpetual interest rate manipulation=perpetual manipulation of ALL markets.

          • On September 20, 2014 at 10:24 am,
            Birdman says:

            So you are saying Martin Armstrong manipulates markets? How cute.

          • On September 20, 2014 at 12:08 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Who’s saying that???

          • On September 20, 2014 at 12:48 pm,
            Birdman says:

            So what were you saying exactly? Never mind…you just need more Marty in your life. So I am going to help. You can tune in to him today on Michael Campbell’s Money Talks Radio. Here is your helpful link…..go to September 20 – Hour 1

            Michael Campbell interviews Martin Armstrong – Sept 20 2014

          • On September 20, 2014 at 1:45 pm,
            Birdman says:

            QEI, II and III were official sanctioned programs. They were transparent and clearly telegraphed to the market. So how the heck is that manipulation when the entire world knew about them from start to finish and monthly meetings were held to discuss it with broad based media in attendance and other governments, most investors, all the major banks plus sovereign Central Banks were openly responding to the cues. Unbelievable man!

          • On September 20, 2014 at 5:05 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Re: “QEI, II and III were official sanctioned programs. They were transparent and clearly telegraphed to the market. So how the heck is that manipulation…”

            That just might be the most ignorant comment in the history of the KER comment section (KERment section?)!

      • On September 20, 2014 at 10:54 am,
        SD Marc says:

        No Birdman – you are pathetic -because you continually beat up people on this site…because you are right and you love being so…lets see how much of a “ass-kicking” you will take when things turn. Oh my bad, you will come on this site talking down to conventional market bulls when the worm turns……thats pathetic.

        • On September 20, 2014 at 11:44 am,
          Birdman says:

          Good grief, Marc. You have had four years to get out of positions and play the momentum which was down in metals. Of course I will be a buyer on the way back up. I just don’t understand the long-gold-all-the-time-no-matter-what thinking. It’s a trade, man. Nothing more. If you lost money for all the past few years by holding then there is something wrong with your analysis, not a problem with mine.

      • On September 20, 2014 at 1:48 pm,
        Jerry C says:

        Bird, conspiracy is what is happening. Observation is seeing it. Call me an observationist. The entire American society is being herded in all aspects of living. Don’t be so naive. Did you ever hear of Galileo and the Catholic Church?

        • On September 20, 2014 at 2:34 pm,
          Birdman says:

          Is there anything new under the sun? The only difference now is that technology is making it easier to manage people and herd them. Same thing since the beginning of time except there is more computers these days and fewer whips and chains and guillotines. But if I am correct there will always be others who find a way around it.

      • On September 21, 2014 at 5:50 am,
        nyc says:

        right on…

    • On September 20, 2014 at 10:51 am,
      SD Marc says:

      jhspace 1 (and all)
      You are spot on friend…see what you just stated in your thread…is EXACTLY my point…people like ??? do NOT study history – AT ALL! They were the guys sending notes back and forth to the pretty girls..trying to score while others were studying the unending truth that…………..HISTORY IS REPEATINGLY REPEATING ITSELF…learn that or GET DESTROYED…eventually.

      • On September 20, 2014 at 11:45 am,
        Birdman says:

        You are right. I was sending the pretty gals messages!

        • On September 20, 2014 at 12:21 pm,
          Gator says:

          Birdman…get any replies?…….

          • On September 20, 2014 at 12:49 pm,
            Birdman says:

            Let me count the notches in my belts. I will get back to you on it.

  11. On September 20, 2014 at 6:48 am,
    Jay says:

    Cory, do you EVER interact with people on here? Al does a phenomenal job of discussing issues, debating with listeners of your show. Would be even better if BOTH of you contributed this way imo 😉
    Al, as a fan of the show, and definitely NOT a fan of organized religion, I appreciate you guys trying new things, but when it comes to economics, and particularly pm investments, PLEASE keep the religious stuff out of the conversation if you wish to retain a well rounded audience. Bo is SO out of touch with his calls I can’t believe you would have him on as a serious pm segment. (if you did a separate mystic / theological speculative piece it would be a different story) but passing this guy off for intelligent market commentary is ludicrous. 1900 by year end??? He has called the bottom about 15 times this year and had assured his 13k a year subscribers(you’d have to have a cult mentality to pay that kind of fee) the bottom for gold is in by end of summer…. well Monday is fall 😉

    • On September 20, 2014 at 10:36 am,
      Bobby says:

      I was also shocked to see bo in the line up as well, who even heard of him 2 years ago?

  12. On September 20, 2014 at 7:21 am,
    Matt says:

    Same as it ever was-first the British Pound and then the USD are the destruction and control vehicles of domination. Everything is right in the world for their devotee’s.

    “The two main planks of the NWO drive for world domination are economic subservience achieved through imposing the dollar as the global reserve currency, involving such things as the SWIFT payments system, which entire countries can be shut out of at their discretion, and a massive overpowering military machine, which is used to impose their will by force, where diplomacy and coercion fail to produce the desired results. ” Clive Maund

  13. On September 20, 2014 at 7:22 am,
    Lawrence says:

    I find a lot of gold bulls misunderstand what conventional is doing or jealous of it. There is no proof that conventional market can not go up forever since it can. Just compare the index on 1960s and now, it does go up forever. The reason is simple – inflation. This also the factor to make gold go up forever. Just compare the gold price after it is depegged from the dollar. Therefore, for gold to rise, it does not need stock to crash and they most like will go up together at most of the time. It is unwise to bet the gold’s eventual rise on stock crash since that is to say that gold will not rise much since stock will rise for a long period of time. Yes, it may correct but there is no reason for it to crash under such fast printing environment

  14. On September 20, 2014 at 9:06 am,
    Gary says:

    I’m offering free access to the weekend report this week. For details clcik on the link below.


    • On September 20, 2014 at 9:37 am,
      CFS says:

      It’s not free if we have to give up an email address.

  15. On September 20, 2014 at 9:17 am,
    keylime says:

    Al congratulations on bringing on your new guest Bo Polny. Interesting guy.

  16. On September 20, 2014 at 10:05 am,
    Gary says:

    Actually gold runs in an 8 year cycle, not a 7 year cycle like Bo is trying to suggest.


  17. On September 20, 2014 at 10:11 am,
    Gary says:

    Stocks ran in a 4 year cycle tied to the presidential cycle until the beginning of the secular bear market, unnaturally low interest rates, and QE. At that point the normal 4 year cycle has gotten stretched to a 6-7 year cycle.


  18. On September 20, 2014 at 10:12 am,
    Dick Tracy says:

    Rick Rule said “You will know when the bottom has hit in precious metals because you will see the market puke.”

    • On September 20, 2014 at 10:18 am,
      Lawrence says:

      But the definition of puke is unclear. Does Friday count as puke? Certainly a lot of people have puked many times here. Is RR going to puke?

      • On September 20, 2014 at 10:43 am,
        Matthew says:

        There was a fair amount of puking where the average trader or retail guy is positioned. For instance, GDXJ lost 3.56% yesterday while TGM.v closed down just 1.32%. SIL and SLW lost 3.63% and 3.87%, respectively, while AXU lost just 1.07% and IPT.v lost just 1.28%.

        • On September 20, 2014 at 11:04 am,
          Lawrence says:

          I am glad this finally comes to a close very soon. I wish it drops to the point that I can accumulate every ounce I can before producers give up. I heard John Ing said that Chinese producers in the gold conference held recently were worrying about high cost production and short reserve life. Even government buys all their gold they already on the thin edge. they want to acquire more international properties. I heard last year that have an average cost of 2100. I thick RR confirmed it independently

      • On September 20, 2014 at 11:10 am,
        Matthew says:

        Yes, this is just a correction. Take a look at FSM. It went up 140% this year (off the late Dec. low) and is now scaring out the clueless price chasers. It has plunged 30% in weeks but is still up 69% from its Dec. low.
        I don’t own it, but those who like it could do a lot worse than starting to buy right now.

        • On September 20, 2014 at 11:47 am,
          Birdman says:

          There is that “buy” word again.

          • On September 20, 2014 at 12:10 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Yes! You get a star -but not a gold star. 🙂

        • On September 20, 2014 at 1:38 pm,
          Birdman says:

          How is this for a gold star…..you are “M” over at Trader Dan’s site. I could read through your prose blindfolded man. The one and the same guy. You never give up do you? Same old stuff day in and day out. Always bullish….always humping gold.

          • On September 20, 2014 at 2:41 pm,
            Vortex says:

            Holy cow Bird, I thought the same thing. Its no fun for the story tellers to go to Dans site and try to run nonsense on that public fourm and not be challenged. That dog don’t hunt over there!

            Dan Norcini does not **** around, you go over there and start talking the same old tired BS and spouting off that “the world is ending, buy, buy, buy” and you’ll get your freaking head lopped off and handed to you in a plastic bag.

            I love what he tries to do for the guy and gal on the street, just tell the truth. Hes smart and honest and provides no-holes-barred rebuttals countering BS and fairytale story’s.

            A real world business man that works in the commodity industry everyday and is willing to spend countless hours of his own time running a free commodity based website emphasizing the real truth of market activity.

            He cuts through all the BS to tell the truth, even enlight of the possible loss on some level of some percentage of the general daily viewership.

          • On September 20, 2014 at 3:17 pm,
            Birdman says:

            Too funny. You are making me laugh man!

          • On September 20, 2014 at 5:35 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Sorry to burst your crazy little bubble, bird, but you are wrong. I have been to Dan’s site maybe 3 times (briefly) and not once have I posted there.
            Vortex, if you’re calling me a story teller, apparently it was an appropriate disclosure when you called yourself a loser. You and bird would both rather lecture and judge than actually learn something. You recently proved that you couldn’t even read one of my charts —but that didn’t stop you from taking issue with it instead of humbly asking for help with it.
            I’m sure Dan is a fine TRADER. If you guys are traders (joke) why don’t you spend more of your time at his site?

          • On September 20, 2014 at 6:10 pm,
            Vortex says:

            Matthew, news flash; my “loser buffoon” comment from a day ago was the comic equivalent of a “sarcastic” squadron of B-52 Bombers flying over your head. You didn’t get it then and you don’t get it now.

            Why, because you make everything about you, every word and every statement. None of this is about you.

          • On September 20, 2014 at 6:34 pm,
            HEAVYHITTER says:

            V……go find a pile of sand.

            Relieve your frustrations.

            I see your never done with Dr. Suess stories ..

            Flappin your jaws with blasphemy and idiotic gossip.

            You have no integrity at all.

            Go find some V and then return.

            Your posts look like tossed fruit salads.

            No credibility whatsoever.

            If you got a bug stuck somewhere. …you do.

            GET RID OF IT…V.

            Your a real drag…pessimism. ..

            Its ugly V….gold is going up….

            Optimism. …OK….got it now.

            Just do it ..V….and be happy.

            Have your gold and its a feel good.

            TRY IT…V :◆}

          • On September 20, 2014 at 6:49 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Not about me? Bird came to a dumb conclusion about me being “M” at another site and you responded with “Holy cow Bird, I thought the same thing. Its no fun for the story tellers to go to Dans site and try to run nonsense…” —not exactly a stretch to say it looks like it’s about me.

        • On September 21, 2014 at 3:50 am,
          JMiller says:


          What are you referring to as being just a correction?

          • On September 21, 2014 at 9:43 am,
            Matthew says:

            The sharp pullback in the gold sector that started a few weeks ago.

  19. On September 20, 2014 at 10:16 am,
    Gary says:

    As I explain in my weekend report that puke will either come next month, or more likely next summer when the CRB forms it’s three year cycle low.


    • On September 20, 2014 at 10:30 am,
      CFS says:

      Gary, you may be right about next summer for timing, because the futures market is indicating the first Fed interest rate increase (0.25%) will occur in probably June.

    • On September 20, 2014 at 3:01 pm,
      Vortex says:


      I think you and Edelson may both turn out to be right. This market has had up-to this point a high degree of pain, but I still think there is a bit more downside to go before the illusive real puke moment arrives.

      Sometime in 2015 is when most of the hardcore faction may capitulate and just throw their hands up in the air and buckle under the pressure of losing positions.

      That will be your time to take a step back, analyze and sift through the smoldering ruble, and add to positions of the survivors with solid long-term prospects.

      • On September 20, 2014 at 4:57 pm,
        Lawrence says:

        well it may not be true. there is no rule you have to get rid of hard cores. I haven’t seen too many markets which can get rid of hardcore. For every seller there is a buyer. If the hardcore has sold, what do you call the guys who bought from the hardcore? The hardcore like rick rule and other may well be adding to their position. At least This is What I am doing. Except you believe there is a unnatural force in the market doing the dumping, the market will drop to certain equilibrium point and moves up. If there is someone doing it deliberately, it only strength the position of hardcore and push gold to the place it is welcome, which is the east nowadays? A lot gold will be lost. Do I make sense?

        • On September 20, 2014 at 5:29 pm,
          Vortex says:


          I haven’t got the freaking foggiest idea what the markets are going to do tomorrow, next week or next year.

          All of this is just a best guess dissection and analysis of converging and deconverging trends, along with heavy doses of modern monetary alchemy mixed in with heavy-handed centrally planned chaos.

          So I, will put my worn and tattered dunce cap on and stand bye. I’ve got plenty of time to let the market tell me what its going to do.

  20. On September 20, 2014 at 10:19 am,
    Matthew says:

    Dan Kurz nails it from start to finish on every detail.

    • On September 20, 2014 at 10:27 am,
      Birdman says:

      Ha Ha Ha!! You are too damn funny for words. No wonder you are always bullish all the time.

      • On September 20, 2014 at 10:59 am,
        Matthew says:

        Big-picture, there’s no reason NOT to be bullish. As I have said countless times, I buy weakness and sell strength all along the way. I have also stated that I sell breakouts and buy breakdowns. What’s really FUNNY is that you have a deluded (wrong) view of your own accuracy. You are BOLDLY bearish at every low.
        I noticed that you wheeled out your old target of $968 gold again, LOL.
        Remember my “Where’s Bird???” chart?

        • On September 20, 2014 at 11:04 am,
          Matthew says:

          Btw, it shouldn’t need to be pointed out, but sometimes I do start to sell too much too early and buy too much too early. But my approach suits me and has worked very well for years.
          Only liars are perfect (hint,hint).

          • On September 20, 2014 at 11:55 am,
            Birdman says:

            I only said you were funny. That is not name calling.

          • On September 20, 2014 at 5:53 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Who said anything about name-calling? I was just pointing out the obvious —that you are full of $#!t.

  21. On September 20, 2014 at 10:24 am,
    PF says:

    Come’on Al, I can’t believe you believe the 7 yr cycle stuff. It is a bunch of horse manure. For every example that fits into the 7 yr pattern you can find an example that fits into a 6 or 5 or 8 or 9 yr pattern. For one thing the U.S. changes Presidents every 4 or 8 yrs, Isn’t that the most important cycle of all?

    • On September 20, 2014 at 10:31 am,
      CFS says:

      I find Bo simplistic in his cycle theory.

    • On September 20, 2014 at 12:33 pm,
      glenfidish says:

      You beat me to the punch! It’s the exact same thing with horoscope. Notice how every horoscope tells you what you want to hear lol..

      Al, cory why didn’t you ask him what happened with his low call in august? He said it was the final low?

      • On September 20, 2014 at 1:25 pm,
        JMiller says:

        Are you referring to Bo’ Polny’s statement last year that the final low in gold was in? Bo Polny wrongly called for the bottom in gold back in 2013 at $1321 and for gold to never go below $1300.


        A few months after his proclamation, gold fell over 10% to $1180. Right now we are near $1215.

        After gold went through his $1321 bottom call and fell dramatically to $1180, Mr. Polny made another bottom call in gold. People use this call and say that he accurately called the bottom in gold when he really did not.

        • On September 20, 2014 at 1:35 pm,
          Birdman says:

          Exactly right JMiller. Memories are short in this trade and the BS is as deep as our heads are high. I am sticking with my one and only bottom call of 968 and let the torpedoes be damned because this baby is nowhere near its final bottom yet. My detractors can put a feather in my cap if I am within just a few ticks in the end.

          • On September 20, 2014 at 2:57 pm,
            bb says:

            Not sure how you get 968 Bird. TA I guess?
            I still say gold doesn’t go much below $1000, Ive mentioned my thinking before, I figure the Chinese government steps up buying around there. I think they will support their advice to Chinese people to start buying around $1000, and I don’t think they will want their people to see them as wrong.
            If their people lose money on it they could get “miffed” at Chinese leadership.

            Course, we could go 20 years sideways from there. But I kinda think gold will increase in relation to the printing. That’s assuming we get some velocity, chance we don’t see any for some time too I guess.

          • On September 21, 2014 at 4:02 am,
            Birdman says:

            So far I am calling it pretty darn well, bb. QE is ending as predicted, the dollar is rising strongly due to inbound capital flows and the deflation’s in both Europe and Japan are causing the appropriate response with gold falling hard against a rising Euro. I also believe we will get a modest rate rise (trial) sometime before mid summer. This will actually accelerate capital inflows and not cause the damage so many predict. Stock markets have tremendous momentum now that will not be immediately affected by modest rate normalization. In the meantime and as an outcome of dramatically falling commodity prices we can anticipate winds at our backs as bottom line revenues begin to gradually improve thus further strengthening US markets. This is where money wants to come. Just that simple. Ten year rates here are already an inducement to investors given Euro rates are in the basement (if not actually negative in real terms). So gold at 968 is a very good probability. If anything, I am on the high side.

          • On September 21, 2014 at 6:11 am,
            nyc says:

            could be lower bird,,,depends on when every last bull is out,,,then wait some time and see, could be a longish time before the real next cycle up occurs with real inflation

  22. On September 20, 2014 at 10:38 am,
    xlurkr says:

    Totally off-topic:

    (Possibly biased – Gatestone’s got some neocon links – but likely no more biased than the reporting coming out of Gaza which was effectively propaganda due to Hamas interference.)

  23. On September 20, 2014 at 12:08 pm,
    CFS says:

    It appears part of the dollar strength is actually due to money moving out of Japan; nobody seems to be talking about this.
    Is it possible the Japanese are anticipating problems with China?
    I would expect money to be moving out of Europe, because it is clear the southern Euro area is and hasbeen in recession and Northern Euro area is just entering recession.

    • On September 20, 2014 at 3:24 pm,
      Vortex says:


      The dollar strength phenomenon has been as you know mostly a worried European money flow issue. But if Japan joins the Europeans in a flight to safety atmosphere, the dollar could seriously make a move to even more extremely over-bought levels.

      This won’t likely be a long-dated experience, but the dollar could remain at high levels for a year or so.

      Should be interesting to watch as market forces remain in a steady state of flux.

    • On September 21, 2014 at 4:09 am,
      Birdman says:

      “It appears part of the dollar strength is actually due to money moving out of Japan”

      100% agree CFS. There are literally trillions that could yet flow into North America from Japan and elsewhere. It is not just US stock markets either as some aver but in fact Mexico and Canada are also going to also be beneficiaries as the three economies are so closely tied.

  24. On September 20, 2014 at 12:14 pm,
    CFS says:

    The US just passed a law denying the ability to close any Post Offices until 2016, notwithstanding a projected loss of $4 billion this year.
    Seems to me Unions backed by Obama won this round.

    Do folks here think that after the election, the Republican party might split into two, with so many conservatives just fed up with lack of control on spending?

    What about the recent pole in Texas showing 34% of Texans wanting to secede from the US?

  25. On September 20, 2014 at 12:20 pm,
    CFS says:

    A comment on the Scottish vote, with after-election poling:
    I did not realize the age division was so huge.
    Over 65 year-olds voted over 70% No
    Under 25 year olds, voted 65% Yes.

    I now realize that not using regular electoral roles and allowing 16 year olds to vote was an attempt by the Scottish establishment to get a Yes vote.

    • On September 20, 2014 at 12:50 pm,
      Lawrence says:

      I know little about UK even I visited there a couple of times. Do you think the split up will lead to war? If this is in my old country, it will be bloody since all the guys who want to remain in the union will join force and invade the leaving part since it is considered the ultimate crime to split the country. It will be true also in US. I don’t think UK was formed by peaceful means either. I haven’t seen successes other than east Eastern Europe which was running away from communism. Apology if there any offence.

      • On September 20, 2014 at 1:02 pm,
        CFS says:

        The result of the referendum was in favor of staying united.

        So there will not be a split-up.

  26. On September 20, 2014 at 12:27 pm,
    bb says:

    34% wanting to leave means 66% want to stay. Not even close enuff to vote on.

    • On September 20, 2014 at 12:38 pm,
      CFS says:

      No, I should have included the undecided part, since only about 50% wanted to stay in union.
      And I consider Texas a pretty low tax state; one to which people are moving.

  27. On September 20, 2014 at 12:35 pm,
    CFS says:

    BABA: less than 10% of shares were allotted to general investors.
    The big guys made the profits.
    Now trading at 35 times earnings and bigger than both Amazon and EBay combined.
    Seems a bit over-valued to me.

  28. On September 20, 2014 at 12:50 pm,
    CFS says:

    I may be anti-Islamic in my views, but ???

    This does not seem a way to produce harmony.

    • On September 20, 2014 at 11:22 pm,
      xlurkr says:

      Agreed; though there are plenty of exhortations to jihad etc in the koran, for a period of 100+ years they weren’t emphasised (according to Bassam Tibi who’s made the study of Islamism his life’s study; youtube has some good talks of his which you might find moderate your anti-Islamic views).

      This is a great way to make moderate Muslims feel embattled, targets of hate crime & marginalised in Islamic circles.

      But turning a blind eye to preaching violence at (some) western mosques* for first amendment &/ appeasement of a restive minority reasons doesn’t seem a good way either…


  29. On September 20, 2014 at 1:24 pm,
    Chico Garçon says:

    I have heard enough good, bad, positive, negative, smart and idiotic analysis and opinions in my life to really give anyone a moment of my undivided attention. I will figure out on my own if it makes sense to me. With that in mind, and building upon the Polny interview, I would invite all of you to read ‘The Mystery of the Shemitah.’. The author, Rabbi Cahn could as full as *^%# as a Christmas Turkey but it is really fascinating in its in depth look at the Shemitah cycle, which is a 7-year cycle. Rabbi Cahn is not an economist, market technician etc so give his work the respect you wish.

  30. On September 20, 2014 at 1:26 pm,
    Chico Garçon says:

    By the way, Cahn would be a fun guest to have on the show.

  31. On September 20, 2014 at 3:26 pm,
    Birdman says:

    I was reading some of the comments over at Silver Doctors after last weeks bloodbath in silver. Talk about interesting responses. Some bitter, others hopeful, a few angry, longing, confused, defiant and all the other emotions rolled together. It is tough to be in love with precious metals after a month like these last two. Recall these are the traditionally strong months. Lord help us when the weak months arrive!

    • On September 20, 2014 at 3:56 pm,
      Silverbug Dave says:

      Bird, don’t waste your valuable time on silverdoscors.

      Reminds me of the Smith’s song “In my life, oh, why do I give valuable time … to people who don’t care if I … live or die?”
      The song of course is called ‘Heaven Knows I’m Miserable Now’.

  32. On September 20, 2014 at 3:51 pm,
    cfs says:

    Any chance of getting Jim Willie back on this here show???

    That guy always gave me the willeys but what he has to say is important.

    And whatever happened to Roger Weecant and Pau Van Eeden?? They just disappeared. I’m going to have to put their faces on the backs of milk cartons.

    And why do my posts never show up here? It says “awaiting moderation” and then disappear. Is free speech only for some on this here KE Report?

  33. On September 20, 2014 at 3:55 pm,
    Silverbug Dave says:

    You know I am so totally fed up with this gold and silver market.

    Really, I should be so grateful because it’s been good to me, since I first joined it in 2001, not as good as it could have been if I had had better cashflow to spend on it in those early days or if I had been more enterprising.

    However, the gold and silver markets have succumbed to the law of diminishing returns since 2008.

    I have been selling out and am going to sell more and buy myself nice Minimoog and Prophet-12 synthesizers that I can have some fun with playing. I saw the latter of those keyboard online for the first time today. I already swapped a bit of my metals for a nice camera 2 weeks ago and this will go on. I have my eye on another camera and some lenses too. There have got to be more fruitful things to do with one’s life than worryoing about this stupid gold and silver market. I think now of the Parable of the Talents and we are the guys hoarding the gold who get condemned (by a severe bear market if nothing else).

    I had an instinct that told me to sell in 2012 when premiums on semi-numismatic coins were tiny, as they are usually at a gold top, even though gold was already down from $1920 to $1650. They hinted at much more downside. I thought $1300 a possible target at the time but did little about it except I did already stopped buying. The coin premiums went up a lot as gold hit $1200 and that was the bottom, at least for a while. For example, I knew somone who bought some Saint Gaudens $20 pieces (0.9675 oz each) in MS64 grade for $1750 when gold was $1650/oz – thats no more than 10% over melt, basiucally bullion prices. When gold was down under $1300, these same coins were auctioning for $1600-1700, a $400+ premium. Just showsa how semi-numismatics were good value if bought at low premiums because the premium can rise. However, they are still a bit in the red.

    Most of the juice in this gold and silver market was in by the 2008 highs at $1030 Au and $21 Ag in fact, really, especialyl in the mining stocks whose bull market arguable started earlier than that of the metals themselves.

    There are those who are still looking for the second half of the bull market. Maybe it will come but maybe they will be very disappointed and have to wait for many years for the next bull market to start.

    I sometimes think the second half of the gold and silver bull already happened from 2008 to 2011, the bear inbetween the two halves was in 2008 and was quicker and dirtier than the 1974-76 slump in the 70s and many missed it. This bear coincided with a 50% crash in comon stocks on both occasions and was between two periods of relatively high price inflation. With inflation much lower now than in the 1970s, we should not expect gold and silver to scream as high as they did then, because you have to look at the purchasing power return if you consider them as money, which most gold and silver bugs do. It is amiss of them not to look at the real return but rather to expect the huge nominal returns of the 70s. A 24x move in gold in the 1970s ($35 to $850) was really only 8x if you consider that consumer prices trebled in that period.

    The returns in gold and silver stocks pretty much stank going into the 2011 top in the metals and showed that something was wrong in the market, a gigantic non-confirmation. In hindsight, it was follish to believe people like John Embry who said the HUI was going in short order from 550 to 900 because gold had risen by more %, when in fact of course, the HUI has crashed to under 200 instead.

    These people are full of BS and don’t know what they are talking about, unfortunately. I don’t give Sprott, Embry, Sinclair or Turk any credibility whatsoever because of the way they have been so very wrong. They are either out to make money by distributing paper to suckers or they are just simply deluded at their advanced age, looking for the glory days of the 1970s to return. People have alot of nostalgia for the 70s which is misplaced. The economy was crap and we had media heroes who were pervs like Jimmy Savile at the BBC molesting children at every opportunity. The 70s stank. People complain about kids’ beaviour nowadays but many state run schools in the UK were pure anarchy in the 70s, believe me.

    Don’t look for the glory days of the 70s in trms of gold either. This isn’t the 70s – thankfully.

    • On September 20, 2014 at 5:10 pm,
      Lawrence says:

      Congratulation to your gains. If you like cameras, buy them. I think it is better than putting your money under mattress. However, other people may not agree with you and you sell and they buy. Whether they make money or not, I don’t think you should care. If I want to sell, I am not going to convince them not to buy from me. Right?

  34. On September 20, 2014 at 4:06 pm,
    Silverbug Dave says:

    This Bo Polny of Polny’s Gold 2020 forecast, is pure baloney. Cycles cycles everywhere. Yoiu can find cycles in everything and it is so boring. Any period you like. When you see the thing going against your cycle you just invent another cyle and say that other cycle is going the other way.

    The guy is out to lunch. He should join Sprott in the $2000 gold by Christmas camp.

  35. On September 20, 2014 at 4:35 pm,



    Blasphemy, busy bodies, gossip and ignorance.

    JUST TO NAME A FEW. You want to know what else ?

    WELL DOOOOO YAAAAA ? ha….you people in these gold bear
    suits live in shame. A complete disgrace to the forum.

    REPULSIVE !!!!! Ignoring the market in gold equities. Solid
    gains in many juniors, mid caps and majors. Until these
    gains evaporate…..



    Ha….even in gold futures insiders where buying this week.

    COT commercials reduced short positions substantially.

    Now, back out your donkeys, mount up and ……….

    BE GONE !!!!! The smell is more than we can bare now.

    YOU HAVE NOTHING TO GO ON. Prices are higher for everything.

    ●●●●●● your judgment is completely misplaced ●●●●●●●●●●●●●

    NOW GO !!!!!!!!!!!!!

  36. On September 20, 2014 at 8:44 pm,
    Joe says:

    Bo Polny calling for 2,000 gold by end of year…. what a joke. Who is this guy anyway?
    John Doody made the same call last year around the same time… 2,000 gold by end of year. Guess what happened to his subscriber base… it probably go decimated. Now you never hear him on these podcasts being interviewed, he’s probably hiding somewhere from all the people he led to the slaughter.
    THE PM MARKET IS DEAD… DONE… FINISHED…. GIVE UP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    • On September 20, 2014 at 9:47 pm,
      HEAVYHITTER says:

      Go home and stay there Joe.

      There you can do some due diligence
      and research on the matter.

      You can’t see divergence in the gold


      Give your moaning a good rest Joe.

      Then do yourself a favor…..


      and take off that blind fold that keeps you
      from great opportunities.

      Then from there Joe, what you do is your business.

      Its doesn’t affect me. Just happy I’m not you.


      Jimmy Rogers just said he’s buried now in gold
      and commodities. Its the big trade now.

      Suit yourself Joe…

      • On September 21, 2014 at 8:41 am,
        gary says:

        I thought Rogers said there wold be another opportunity to buy gold either later this year or next year?


        • On September 21, 2014 at 8:57 am,
          HEAVYHITTER says:

          Sorry Gary. Old news. Gotta get up to speed Gary.

          Bird is aware of the interview. Never would share the info.
          Of coarse not. Its bullish. Ha haaaaaaa.

          You guys are too much. Its the comedy hour.


          • On September 21, 2014 at 10:15 am,
            Lawrence says:


            Please share this interview. I trust Rogers even not for his timing. I think his big picture is great. Thanks.

          • On September 21, 2014 at 10:25 am,
            HEAVYHITTER says:

            Sorry Lawrence.

            I thought Bird might show up and come clean.

            Thats OK. This is for everyone incl. Gary and you.

            I do apologize. Bird let me down and won’t keep
            you hangin.


            New weekend interview. Respectively current today.

          • On September 21, 2014 at 11:15 am,
            Lawrence says:

            Thanks Matthew,

            I just realized I haven’t listened to MoneyTalks radio for a while. Too busy.


          • On September 21, 2014 at 11:18 am,
            HEAVYHITTER says:

            Your welcome..Bird.


    • On September 21, 2014 at 9:31 pm,
      JMiller says:

      Bo Polny is “Dr Bohdan Stephan Polny”, a chiropractor. His chiropractic clinic is the same address as his 2020forecast which has an address of 20151 SW Birch Street, Suite 200 | Newport Beach, CA 92660


      I do not think he really has a lot of experience in market timing, cycles or what ever you what to call it.

      • On September 22, 2014 at 1:56 pm,
        Bobby says:

        Another doc?

  37. On September 20, 2014 at 10:26 pm,
    Matthew says:
    • On September 21, 2014 at 10:29 am,
      stewie says:

      Matt. Thanks for your charts. I enjoy them. Keep posting all of them that you follow.
      I think on this ratio on next dow downturn we should hit 5.0, which would put some crazy number on gold

      • On September 21, 2014 at 11:14 am,
        Matthew says:

        You’re welcome. The exciting thing to me right now is that gold doesn’t have to rise much to greatly improve the profits and profit margins of miners that are now much leaner and “meaner” with respect to their costs/spending. The leverage that they will exhibit will be very much like that of a call option “at the money” that suddenly goes “deep in the money” —in other words, unbelievable.
        The trick for the average investor in these things is to own a small enough amount spread across 5-15 stocks, that they will be psychologically able to hold their positions through the trying corrections (which will keep coming throughout even a confirmed bull market).
        As Doug Casey and others like to say, risk a little to make a lot. It is also wise to scale in and scale out of each trade. As Stewart Thomson has said, don’t “price plop” (don’t go all-in or all out at one price point) like most Elmer Fudd investors. Fading the trade is the humble and professional thing to do since none of us can call a turn in these illiquid and emotion-driven little plays with any degree of precision over and over again. Each spec is very different and has very different price drivers.
        Very few traders will ever make the same gains in junior miners as a good speculator will, in my opinion.

  38. On September 20, 2014 at 11:24 pm,
    Lawrence says:

    There is rumour that China will open a global oil exchange soon and price oil in RMB. Currently Saudi prince is visiting China and negotiating the agreement.

  39. On September 20, 2014 at 11:47 pm,
    Matthew says:

    Adam Hamilton gets it:
    “Nevertheless, a hardcore remnant of contrarian investors remains very bullish on this sector. They have studied market history, and remember core truths that the Fed has blasted from most minds. Markets are forever cyclical, they rise and fall. Any extreme in sentiment and prices is soon followed by a major reversal. Exceptionally-high greed-fueled prices soon fall, and exceptionally-low fear-drenched prices soon rise.

    Contrarians know that successful investing demands buying low then selling high. And the cheapest stocks are always the most hated, the sectors with the most universal and overwhelming bearishness. They have the most potential to explode higher and multiply wealth when sentiment inevitably shifts the other way. That’s why smart investors including elite billionaire hedge-fund managers are long gold stocks today.”

    • On September 21, 2014 at 4:26 am,
      Birdman says:

      Maybe he forgot to mention that little aspect of time in the bedtime story. The idea is commendable and true through and through but it would not have worked if you forgot about the amount of time it takes for the opportunity to come back. Gold markets from 1982 through to 2000 offered few opportunities until the poor price cycle was ended and sentiment again got positive. So while you console yourself with contrarian sound bites and cute fairy tales, just try not to forget you still live in the real world and the market can be irrational longer than you stay solvent.

      • On September 21, 2014 at 7:28 am,
        HEAVYHITTER says:

        You have a good reason to be cautious. Precious metals
        are highly volatile and very risky.

        However, the rewards can be thrilling. Comparing the past market
        you refer to is like an apple and an orange.


        As you relentlessly pound over 20 times a day.

        Prices for everything has been going up…just about.

        At the consumer level. Commodities are a screaming buy.

        Paper assets are ridiculously over valued in many cases by
        historical measures.

        Precious metals on the other hand are now ridiculously undervalued.

        You have gold bear facts that prices are in trouble. BASED ON WHAT ?

        Bring us the cold hard facts and reliable information.


        Cold hard facts. Now where are they ????????????????

        • On September 21, 2014 at 7:55 am,
          HEAVYHITTER says:

          BTW…there are some gold bear arguments that are valid.

          The gold equities though are speaking right now.

          We have to respect that. Gold equities lead gold
          up and down. Look at 2011. Gold was rising and
          gold equities were not responding. Then actually
          headed down before gold topped.

          These are market divergences that can’t be ignored.

          If you are ignoring them, you just enjoy upsetting the
          bulls. Its offensive.

          So lets all acknowledge the facts and show some respect
          for the market.

          In the meantime, get all the hard core facts that gold is in trouble.

          Don’t want to hear gossip, accusations and blasphemy etc.

          JUST THE FACTS. Leave the B.S at home.

          • On September 21, 2014 at 8:37 am,
            HEAVYHITTER says:

            Whats I find extremely fascinating are the conditions of this world.

            All it needs in the right crisis. Looks very promising too.

            Well, unless you want to remain blind and don’t want to see.

            It’s much more serious than we would like to admit. However,
            the facts are all there.

            We can ignore them at our own peril. This great war that is sure
            to come will give way to one world leader and government.

            Question we must ask ourselves.

            Will any of you take The Mark Of The Beast ??
            You can’t buy, sell or work without it.

            If you do take this mark, its damnation for eternity.

            I believe its time to prepare for some awfully important
            decisions for eternity. The big event looks like its not to
            far off.

        • On September 21, 2014 at 10:12 am,
          Matthew says:

          HH, sheeple turn bearish because the price drops. That’s it. That’s bird’s “analysis.” We’ve seen him flip his opinion each time the price flips direction for the last year and a half.

          He is obviously oblivious to the fact that junior miners did extremely well beyond 1982. Here’s one example: Corona Resources went from $1.10 in 1981 to $61.00 as of May, 1983 for a return of 5,445.5%. There were other great bull markets in the miners within gold’s long secular bear. Regardless, Bird is wrong to think that gold has entered a secular bear.

          • On September 21, 2014 at 10:18 am,
            Matthew says:

            Here’s one example from the mid 90s.
            Cartaway $0.10 — $26.14 in May 96 for a 26,040.0% gain.
            So Adam Hamilton didn’t “forget” anything. Bird was simply wrong, as usual.
            Source: http://www.caseyresearch.com/articles/what-10-baggers-and-100-baggers-look-like

          • On September 21, 2014 at 10:36 am,
            HEAVYHITTER says:

            I know and its precisely the case Matthew.

            However, precious metals is very high risk.

            So we all need to respect that. Few can weather
            the great volatility.

            Just have to take things for what their worth.

            No one makes money in this market except in
            rare cases. Fortunes is almost impossible.


            These guys are very scared. They should be.

            Precious metals must be left for those with
            great courage and lots of experience.

            It doesn’t exist on this board. With rare exceptions.

            Also, nothing is a 100 percent. Have to respect that too.

            I am !!!!! Never say never.

          • On September 21, 2014 at 11:03 am,
            Birdman says:

            “HH, sheeple turn bearish because the price drops. That’s it. That’s bird’s “analysis.” — Matthew

            I really give you too much credit sometimes. Price drops do not equal bearishness. Get your brain fixed. The trend makes money in both directions. There is as much greed and opportunism in falling prices as there is in a rising market. Gold gave back more than 700 dollars already. I think it’s delightful 🙂 which is not quite the same as being bearish.

          • On September 21, 2014 at 11:13 am,
            HEAVYHITTER says:

            The gains Matthew are exciting.

            We need to stay the coarse.

            Unfortunately, no one except
            rare exceptions will walk away
            with these gains.

            It requires lots of conviction, patience
            and great great courage.

            Your preaching to the choir here.

            I say that regretfully. Seen this too many times.

            There is no gettting around it. Ha…its a lost cause.


          • On September 21, 2014 at 11:50 am,
            HEAVYHITTER says:

            Bill Fleckinstein said Saturday …

            No one really knows where the bottom
            is. Referring to silver and thats going
            to affect everything.

            When the turn comes though he said
            it will turn on a dime.

            TICK TOCK…the mouse ran up the clock.

            Repeatedly as I have said.

            This is when the big break out comes.

            YA GOTTA BE IN TO WIN…. and live by it in PM’s.

            Or catch the next train out of town before you lose
            your money.

  40. On September 20, 2014 at 11:48 pm,
    Matthew says:
  41. On September 20, 2014 at 11:52 pm,
    Matthew says:

    The miners are more oversold now than they were in December.

  42. On September 21, 2014 at 5:20 am,
    impeach says:
  43. On September 21, 2014 at 6:01 am,
    Chips Rankin says:

    Greetings! thx for the Bo Polny segment. I first heard about him via day trade community then found the May 2014 Kitco interview (which I posted here last week). In any event, here’s the Bo Polny interview I caught on YouTube just prior to that…

    Bo Polny: Gold Will Be The “Greatest Trade in History”

    My takeaway from this was that Gold may be ready for a “chiropractic adjustment” (heh). I know that sounds weird, but I learned something new after reading a particular comment that was substantiated with some back-up. All I can tell ya is I feel GREAT after receiving a chiropractic adjustment, so while I don’t know why chiropractors often branch out and monetize other interests, I have to admit I sort of like the symmetry.

    • On September 21, 2014 at 8:40 am,
      Lawrence says:

      Bo is a new kid on the block. So far I think he is best among analysts. However, just like a doctor will kill moe patients as time goes on, he will make more and more mistakes. Two problems here, first it is impossible to put price and time together. You are going to be wrong in one of them. Second, if you recognize manpulation, forecast is not reliableby default. You are using statistics to predict the behaviour of one person. In physics and math, the statistic model does not apply to single entity, the number has to be large enough.

  44. On September 21, 2014 at 10:27 am,
    CFS says:

    The Pre-Obama goals of US leadership were possible expressed by M. Parenti:

    “The goal has been the ‘Third Worldization’ of the United States:
    an increasingly underemployed, lower-wage work-force;
    a small but growing moneyed class that pays almost no taxes;
    the privatization or elimination of human services;
    the elimination of public education for low-income people;
    the easing of restrictions against child labor;
    the exporting of industries and jobs to low-wage, free-trade countries;
    the breaking of labor unions;
    and the elimination of occupational safety and environmental controls and regulations.”

    Michael Parenti, Land of Idols, 1993

    I actually think, like many Americans, M. Parenti was too self-centered in his focus and he has completely missed the ambitions of worldwide exploitation of resources, and the machinations of the military industrial complex.

    However, it does appear to me that with the rise to power of Barack Obama, the fate of the fall of the American Empire is sealed with a sea-change in policies.

    Clearly the open southern border and the soon-to-be forgiveness of illegal immigrants, combined with an ever-increasing “welfare- food-stamp role is destined to produce a permanent social change to American citizens.

    The world has passed from one in which the American military industrial complex has hitherto exploited the people and the world in general for resources to one in which for Americans there will be higher and higher taxation, worse and worse growth of production and indeed increasing purchase by foreign entities of American assets, including the very land on which much of growth was based.
    In the absence of war, the United States and the US dollar will be propped up by China and Russia until there is little left to be plundered. Then and only then will the dollar collapse and gold go to the moon in US dollars.

  45. On September 21, 2014 at 10:33 am,
    stewie says:

    Al and Corey thank you for inviting Bo Polny on the show and Bo thank you for appearing. Please have him back and Bo please come back soon. I really hope he will nail this one cause i need it. lol. But i do not see this happening but what do i know. I’ve been wrong more then right. lol

    Gary Savage can you comment on Bo Polny’s cycles if you may please in reference are Bo cycles different then yours and how so or how similar are they and how? Just trying to understand both cycles how different or similar they are.

    Good luck to all.

  46. On September 21, 2014 at 1:09 pm,
    Matthew says:

    I wonder if any of you have seen this chart of gold priced in Russian rubles. With the recent calls by Bo and Harvey, it’s worth a look. Gold went from under 2,000 to 7,500 in eight months (2,000 to 6,000 happened in just 2 or 3 months)…

    • On September 21, 2014 at 1:18 pm,
      Matthew says:
    • On September 21, 2014 at 2:54 pm,
      HEAVYHITTER says:

      Thats why conventional wisdom and conservative views
      can be dead wrong.

      The gold bull market is not dead because there are far to
      many reckless government policies and debts keep soaring.
      Very much so. Its out of control.

      GOLD BEARS NEED TO CAPITULATE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

      The gold equities are leading. If I was a gold bear short
      that would certainly be a red flag to cover my shorts.

      • On September 21, 2014 at 3:29 pm,
        HEAVYHITTER says:

        India’s gold imports are up 176 %.

        They know fiat money is worthless.

        Rick Rule is not running for the exits.

        If anything I’m sure they are buying up

        Quote from Rick Rule….anyone who is negative
        on precious metals will be destroyed.

        Strong statement from a guy who is a leading
        gold expert. I don’t believe bloggers know more
        than RR on this site or anywhere incl. so called

        THE GOLD BULL LIVES ON !!!!!!!

        • On September 21, 2014 at 6:40 pm,
          bb says:

          Buy fast, before it gets cheaper.
          Or there might not be any left to buy.

          • On September 21, 2014 at 6:47 pm,
            HEAVYHITTER says:

            Not over yet bb

            Fat lady is walkin up.

            Will she sing ?

          • On September 21, 2014 at 7:12 pm,
            Lawrence says:

            Buy at a price which is under the production cost and hold on to it. This is the trick David Morgan suggests. Unfortunately we don’t get many chance like that but now there are plenty. I am happy I have left a lot of cash with me.

    • On September 21, 2014 at 9:44 pm,
      JMiller says:

      Sorry but there is a big difference between the U.S. today and Russia back in the late 1990’s. The dollar is not going to collapse in the next few months.

      • On September 21, 2014 at 10:09 pm,
        Matthew says:

        The point, which you missed, is that huge moves CAN happen fast IF the conditions are right. I have NOT said that I believe Polny will be correct.
        Both technically and fundamentally, there is a case to be made for the bullish view of the dollar, but I do not take comfort in the fact that the least knowledgeable people I know, or know of, both personally and in cyberspace, all think the dollar is going to be just fine.

        • On September 22, 2014 at 10:28 am,
          JMiller says:


          I did not miss the point at all. I just thought that may be you were trying to say that it could happen before the end of the year based on those past examples. I should not have thought that since you are someone who seems to be knowledgeable enough and seem to be stable minded. I appreciate the charts you share. I myself have spent time with technical analyst and most times I find it useful.

  47. On September 21, 2014 at 3:51 pm,
    CFS says:
  48. On September 21, 2014 at 6:42 pm,

    Margin calls going out.

    This down cycle is still in play.

    Silver is being sold off. Draggin gold with it.

    Lots of blood tomorrow maybe with a recovery.

    • On September 21, 2014 at 7:08 pm,
      Lawrence says:

      I am targeting end of the month to be the low. Maybe one day ahead.

  49. On September 21, 2014 at 6:45 pm,

    James guessed wrong.

    Nice try James.

    Lucky horse race bets don’t work.

    • On September 21, 2014 at 8:54 pm,
      HEAVYHITTER says:

      Maybe you missed it by a buck James.

      So far selling looks exhausted.

      My indicator is still bright green.

  50. On September 21, 2014 at 6:59 pm,
    Lawrence says:

    I am going to load Silver trust for any 3% drop. This is like 2008 October 23 all over again. Silver investors are to be flushed out except a few committed.

    • On September 21, 2014 at 7:03 pm,
      Lawrence says:

      This will trigger the last wave of margin calls. I don’t think the speculators will still be in the market after this. The drop is becoming very ruthless after long time drifting down.

  51. On September 21, 2014 at 7:11 pm,

    Its very difficult to say Lawrence.

    Trends can feed on themselves.

    However, when it looks the worst is time to buy.

    Problem is it could get worse.

    If it gets to much worse then gold equities will give way.

    I would watch the equities for signs.

    Looks like buy territory but safe bet is to watch the miners.

    • On September 21, 2014 at 7:34 pm,
      Lawrence says:

      This is why I have been hesitating loading equities. However, if this is the end of the down trend and we get an V shape recovery like 2008, we may not get too much impact on equities. We will never know before hand though. However, I feel excited to get such a good price to buy. It is too good to be true. All QE effect is gone. I was really fearful at 2008 when I was grinding my teeth and loaded a lot. Now I don’t have much fear and have to suppress my greed. In the worst case, I lose all shares but silver is good since there are so much industry use. China at least has vested interest to maintain the price in certain level. Otherwise if they let mines like SIlverCorp to close, the electronic industry will suffer dearly.

      • On September 21, 2014 at 7:35 pm,
        Lawrence says:

        At least this time I don’t have to borrow money.

    • On September 21, 2014 at 7:44 pm,
      Matthew says:

      HH, I think Lawrence is very smart and rational to buy this plunge. The metals are already extremely oversold. Silver closed the week with an RSI(14) of 16.64 —close to identical to its 2008 low reading. The action tonight would probably put the reading down at around 10 (just a guess). I know it doesn’t feel like it, but it is a good thing that the decline has been relentless. Since there wasn’t a relief rally before heading even lower, this move is more likely to find a lasting low much sooner than it might have otherwise. The reversal should also be sharper and more convincing when it comes. This kind of move is designed to shake out as players as possible.

      • On September 21, 2014 at 8:08 pm,
        HEAVYHITTER says:

        Why did I post Matthew.

        I posted and then saw your comments.

        You couldn’t have said it better. We must
        have a bottom close at hand. My post
        explains my thoughts.

        Great comments Matthew. :◆}

      • On September 21, 2014 at 8:13 pm,
        Lawrence says:

        Thanks Matthew, I few RSI is a better indicator than price. This is quite extreme. I still feel this is artificial and it is not natural for silver to reach this level. It is in my end game region now. Someday we will know like we know. Government let its ego block its vision and it does more harm than good to the economy. This is true in the East and West. The markets are totally distorted, not only in PM market.

  52. On September 21, 2014 at 7:13 pm,

    Selling does look exhausted.

    • On September 21, 2014 at 7:39 pm,
      Lawrence says:

      The volume in SLV and GLD is not accurate since a lot of the buying or selling comes from market makers. The precise ones should be the close ended ETF.

      • On September 21, 2014 at 7:40 pm,
        Lawrence says:

        The volume for SBT.UN has been 10% of usual for last several months except last Friday. I think the remaining quasi-strong hands are flushed out.

        • On September 21, 2014 at 8:04 pm,
          HEAVYHITTER says:

          Your a sharp guy Lawrence.

          The smart money comes in quietly undetected.
          Volume is good because if it really spikes its not
          all selling.

          If we are in a bull market I believe we are, the bottom
          is very close at hand. This shake out is sufficient to
          knock out investors who are not committed and just
          in for momentum and quick profits.

          This must now come to a conclusion. I believe it will
          and we break out. No guarantees. Not in this business.

          • On September 21, 2014 at 8:15 pm,
            Lawrence says:

            You are right Matthew, the brighest burning candle burns out the fastest.

    • On September 22, 2014 at 12:45 am,
      Birdman says:

      Selling won’t be exhausted until the silver longs squeal in agony. Once they realize prices are more likely heading to 15 than back to 20 there should be a religious moment for some. The market has spoken. It understands the dollar now has substantial and growing support beneath it and one of the results is going to be a lot more punishment inflicted on those of little faith. Now we will just wait and see how strong they are so deeply underwater with margin calls looming.

  53. On September 22, 2014 at 1:42 am,
    Skeeta says:

    $15 might just be a high point Bird….I think there’s every possibility it’ll go lower.
    When a Hard Assets investment show stoops as low as asking the views of a chiropractor for where PM”s are headed then you know where this is headed.
    sorry Big Al & Cory but your show lost much respect from me this weekend.

    But thank you,
    Your fawning over Bo convinced me gold is headed to a sub $1000 price within the next year or so…..totally the opposite of his call & time frame.

    • On September 22, 2014 at 2:03 am,
      Birdman says:

      This is the hardest part of the declines for anyone invested in metals, Skeeta. We have not yet seen true capitulation in silver but it is finally on the horizon. We can welcome that as it is a necessary part of the clearing process. I feel strongly that there will be as much as a year to two in the wilderness before prices start to strengthen again. Our friend Matthew here would like all to know it is time to buy (even as he admits he is not a buyer of metals himself) however I would advise caution. Those jumping in now are only going to be catching falling knives.

  54. On September 22, 2014 at 1:54 am,
    Birdman says:

    About the only hope silver longs have today is that gold has not yet broken down. So they are therefore hopeful that if gold resists falling through the floor of support after a third touchdown it must mean silver has a monster bounce coming. Until gold finally disavows them of that slim hope there will be many holding if only to sell on the next bounce back. So I believe we must now watch gold to confirm what silver just told us. That is the that bull has been murdered and gored on its own horns and is not coming back anytime soon.

  55. On September 22, 2014 at 2:09 am,
    Birdman says:

    One last point…..what we are seeing now is the wreckage of the dreams of those who thought they were contrarians. They are swimming against the currents trying to come out on top with a failed investing thesis. I could absolutely burst out laughing at the foolishness of some of the posts I read where stackers and long-only buyers still consider themselves ahead of the herd. Jesus, they are at the front all right. What they did not understand is that they were the ones who went right off the damn cliff first with their small herd of like minded sheep.

    They are Contrarians all right.

  56. On September 22, 2014 at 2:56 am,
    Skeeta says:

    I exited all my mining stocks today.
    Took my profits (my losses also).
    Gold is going down much lower…as is silver.
    I buy back into the market at a shred of what is available today…..when the down trend turns.

    The Gold Bear isn’t just alive….its roaring & hungry as hell !!!

    • On September 22, 2014 at 4:12 am,
      Birdman says:

      Sorry to hear about any losses. These declines have been going on a really long time already and each month seems to bring even worse news than the month before it. I suppose that is how the market baffles everyone including the experts.

      And maybe that is why we have to think for ourselves and not listen to the sirens accusing that selling low must be because you are weak hands or dumb money. We have a guy on this site who has used this strategy to keep people in the game for far longer than they should have been.

      He constantly states that it is only “dumb money” that sells as prices fall. He asserts the “smart money” is accumulating. He always has an answer for everything and in the past many here have hung on his every word and all his charts.

      So much BS it ain’t even funny anymore. Lets take a walk down memory lane for the guy who loves to quote everyone else and see what he said right near the peaks of 2012.

      “On November 28, 2012 at 7:54 pm,
      Matthew says:

      I still think that we’ve seen the lows for this correction (that began in Sept). Silver continues to show more strength than gold, which is positive. The miner’s were also more buoyant today than either of the metals, also positive. Both GDX and GDXJ bounced nicely after filling some gaps. The miners did not confirm the recent strength shown by the metals, which was bearish; but have now not confirmed today’s weakness, which is bullish. The oscillators and volume did not confirm today’s plunge either. The miners may be forming a bullish double bottom. If you look at silver priced in GDXJ, an overbought double top with slightly bearish divergences appears to be forming. The miners are getting ready to dramatically outperform the metals in my opinion. The new shorts could serve as rocket fuel for the coming move”.

      Got that? Rocket fuel. Of course that post was written in November of 2012 and immediately afterwards we saw silver crash almost 50%. But that post sure sounded bullish and it had all the usual flourishes and proofs and evidence that chartists love to use. You were crazy to sell then (or were you?)

      If you do a search you will see that in virtually every single month since the declines Matthew has been a bull artist no matter what the market dished out. It was relentless. Almost all of it wrong too. And he continues to do the very same thing right to this current day.

      The guy just won’t quit. Strong hands man. Yeah, they are buying. Only dumb money sells. Sheesh! If I had a nickel for every time that guy pumped sunshine up our arses……..

      • On September 22, 2014 at 4:23 am,
        Bobby says:

        Amazing and where are the pep boys this weekend?

        • On September 22, 2014 at 5:15 am,
          Birdman says:

          Silver crashing again today. Guess those pumpers are finally back under their rocks. But as soon as we get a little price bounce they will all be back like dirty shirts telling us “I told you so”!! and pumping their chests and back-slapping and bragging about their double digit gains in XYZ company that you all missed.

          SORRY! You fools. You all miss it all the time because you don’t have 20/20 vision like them.

          Gold and silver are going UP, UP, UP!!!!…….Time to buy now or be priced out forever!!!! Hurry. Hurry you weak handed fools. You are all dumb money. Time to buy NOW. Matthew said so just two days ago. Listen to him (Oh GOD please help us all)

          What a bunch of asses.

          • On September 22, 2014 at 7:18 am,
            Matthew says:

            The only ASS here is you, Birdman. Funny how you didn’t notice or care that Al, Rick, and Doc were also hardly bearish at the time I made the above comment.
            Al and Rick were talking about opportunities in juniors while Doc said: “We won’t see the lows again in this consolidation but we might get down to about $1625.00.”
            He also said: “You aren’t nuts to be in the (mining) stocks. If you notice, many of the stocks held up well on this big dip. If we dip again as I suspect, it won’t be a big dip…”

            You’re delusional, arrogant, illogical, unreasonable, and uncivilized, Bird. That’s why I respond to you in the way that I do —NOT because you disagree.

          • On September 22, 2014 at 8:01 am,
            Matthew says:

            Also on that day, 11/28/12,:
            So I said what Brent said but I wasn’t selling a $1,000/yr newsletter.
            (Brent’s newsletter is not one I consider expensive, btw. By all accounts, he’s a great geologist, too.)

          • On September 22, 2014 at 8:12 am,
            Birdman says:

            I see. All the credit (er blame) is for Brent Cook.

          • On September 22, 2014 at 8:41 am,
            Birdman says:

            Unlike them you are offering buy recommendations during a metals collapse. Sorry Matthew but you are totally on your own here. Stop blaming other people and accept some responsibility.

          • On September 22, 2014 at 8:59 am,
            Matthew says:

            What the hell are you talking about? Why would I blame anyone for anything I’ve done in the markets? That’s what petty sheeple snivelers do.
            You don’t think that is amounts to a recommendation when credible experts are publicly bullish? I’m just a guy with nothing to sell sharing what I am doing. Those who on ANYONE’S words do so at their own risk. Most people understand that they are responsible for their own money!

          • On September 22, 2014 at 11:14 am,
            Birdman says:

            What credible experts? Care to name a few?

            Are they all KWN types perhaps? 😉

          • On September 22, 2014 at 11:23 am,
            Matthew says:

            How about the guys who were wrong with me —Rick, Doc, and Brent? Try to focus, would you?

      • On September 22, 2014 at 4:50 am,
        Skeeta says:

        Fortunately exiting now leaves me with ammo for later in this market to get back in.
        Gold ta the moon guys are a dime a dozen.

        • On September 22, 2014 at 5:07 am,
          Birdman says:

          You are telling me, Skeeta. A dime a dozen.

          And don’t worry Bobby, he will be back. His modus operandi is to discredit anyone who advises caution with metals purchases during a decline. All I can say is be forewarned and be prepared because Matthew has proven he is the ultimate gold stock pumper.

          He denies he is an insider, broker or industry guy. I call BS on that because nobody (and I mean NOBODY) can keep up this charade unless he has some kind of interest or an agenda. Recall the other day he admitted to buying certain gold shares daily,

          DAILY for Gods sake!!!! All during a nasty decline. And he admits he does not even buy gold itself.

          Nobody normal does that in a price crash unless he is a broker or a shill.

          • On September 22, 2014 at 6:05 am,
            Matthew says:

            BS, Bird. Caution is recommended always. I don’t discredit anyone that hasn’t already discredited themselves —people like you who spout off about things that you clearly shouldn’t be.
            If I have a different opinion, I state it. Isn’t that what this place is for??? I can see how an ignorant little person like you would see it differently.

          • On September 22, 2014 at 8:17 am,
            Birdman says:

            So says the person who just moments ago wrote “This headline screams “Buy Silver!”

            And that is coming from a person who does not even buy precious metals!!!!

            Attention to all readers: If you have been taking advice from this guy for the last three years you better start thinking again. His bullish calls and always sunny and optimistic charts are not telling the whole story.

          • On September 22, 2014 at 8:27 am,
            Matthew says:

            I know you’re financially challenged, but I said I’m not buying gold, NOT precious metals. Again, caution is always recommended. I know what that means to me, perhaps child-like sheeple like you should figure out what that means to them.
            I am sharing what I do. Are you implying that others here are as foolish as you and can’t decide for themselves what they feel comfortable with?
            So where’s your criticism and skepticism of the other guys who were just as wrong on the same day? It obviously doesn’t suit you to be objective, does it? If one of us has an agenda, it is you.

          • On September 22, 2014 at 8:32 am,
            Birdman says:

            There were also children boosting metals since the top. That is because kids like to play games.

      • On September 22, 2014 at 5:59 am,
        Matthew says:

        And this is how the chart for gold looked at the time (I’m not assuming you can read it).
        Nothing very ominous looking, but obviously I got that wrong. Countless “big boys” were wrong at the time too. Very expensive newsletter writers with very good track records (like Nenner) did not see the 2013 smash coming. Still, people should be buying weakness and selling strength all along the way. As for managing risk, that’s up to each individual and there are many ways to do it. Anyone who bought the ’11 and ’12 lows should have been selling the Sept. ’12 highs.
        You obviously don’t know the difference between giving an opinion and “pumping.”
        Was I “pumping” a year ago when I said that I liked CEM.v at a nickel (you know, before it went up five fold)? No. Pumpers promote something they want to exit, smart guy. My money is where my mouth is.

        • On September 22, 2014 at 8:29 am,
          Birdman says:

          So you were just part of the herd then? Good to know. How’s that cliff?

          • On September 22, 2014 at 8:32 am,
            Matthew says:

            Yup, it happens.

  57. On September 22, 2014 at 7:20 am,
    chris says:

    I’ve been reading the posts and I’ve come to the conclusion there are several individuals on this board who have no life. Wow! It used to be pleasure reading this board since it was one of the few places left where individuals posted interesting articles and commentary. Now it’s just a bunch of bragging and whining (by a few individuals, not all. The level-headed individuals have stopped posting.)

  58. On September 22, 2014 at 7:22 am,
    Matthew says:

    Wow, this moronic headline could’ve been written by Bird. I love it!

    • On September 22, 2014 at 8:19 am,
      Birdman says:

      Yes, because only morons can appreciate a four year bear market but a genius like you only sees an opportunity to buy. Like at 1800 and 1550 and 1350 and now 1200. Where does it end friend? When you are broke and your chart students are all busted?

      • On September 22, 2014 at 8:31 am,
        Matthew says:

        I am so glad that the overwhelming majority of investors are as clueless as you are. I’d have to get a job if they weren’t.
        Buy weakness, sell strength. And Repeat. Get it? No you don’t!

        • On September 22, 2014 at 8:34 am,
          Birdman says:

          The more you talk the worse it gets.

  59. On September 22, 2014 at 7:24 am,
    Matthew says:
    • On September 22, 2014 at 8:29 am,
      Birdman says:

      Uh Hunh. It never ends.

      • On September 22, 2014 at 8:33 am,
        Matthew says:

        No, it doesn’t.

        • On September 22, 2014 at 8:43 am,
          Birdman says:

          At least you finally admit it.