Weekend Show – Sat 27 Sep, 2014
Gold and Silver
Hour 1:
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Hour 2:
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Hour 1:
- Segment 1: Dan Oliver, President of the Committee for Monetary Research and Education, discusses the implications of the market action at the end of the week.
- Segment 2-3: The National Investor newsletter writer Chris Temple, a 30 year veteran of the markets, brings up important, historical factors that gold and silver investors need to be aware of.
- Segment 4: Valentin Schmid, Business Editor of the Epoch Times, discusses the new Shanghai Gold Exchange.
Hour 2:
- Segment 5: Silver Investor David Morgan clarifies his views on silver.
- Segment 6: Jeff Deist, President of the Mises Institute, discusses the implications of the recent Scottish vote.
- Segment 7: Our expert panel consisting of Dr. Postma, AKA Doc, Gary Savage of Smart Money Tracker, and Chris Temple provide a recap of the markets.
- Segment 8: Bob Moriarty of 321 Gold, wraps up the show with some thought provoking opinions about the Middle East.
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Featuring:
Comments:
Live Charts
dale says:
Gold could be going to $900 an ounce. http://www.kitco.com/ind/Tablish/2014-09-26-Precious-Metals-Bear-Phase-III-Dead-Ahead-Part-1.html
Bobby says:
I thought 900 was a given, it could go to 650!
J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:
Bobby….do not forget the inflation factor…….$900 is 650 inflated…..
J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:
btw ….hope everything is going great for you………j
Birdman says:
Excellent comments today Gary.
J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:
With Gary’s comment……..we can all go to sleep , and wake up next summer.
glenfidish says:
Remember Gary always leaves it open to change on a dime! He covers all angles.
glenfidish says:
Respectfully Gary.
Al Korelin says:
And that is very smart, Glen!
Lawrence says:
He will be never wrong, I read that claim
Gary says:
Lawrence,
I was completely wrong about the dollar this fall. I thought it would give us a hard move down into a three year cycle low. Instead it’s been the euro that has taken a beating.
Birdman says:
I appreciate that Gary. Kudos to you for saying so. The outlook many had on the dollar in the recent past always bothered me because it did not add up to what was actually taking placed in the world. I guess all we can do is appreciate that our system is very fluid and the dynamics are a constantly moving target. There is just so much to follow too. Nobody can possibly keep track of it all anymore without the benefit of stable models that keep us up to date. Cheers Man!
Birdman says:
One great thing about a low euro and high dollar, Gary, is that travel through Europe will be much more affordable and accessible by people who had until now been discouraged by the ridiculous exchange rate costs. If we actually see parity there is going to be a tourist boom over there that has not been possible in years. Just watch your bags…hardly anybody is working anymore.
Lawrence says:
Gary, I was referring to Glendifish’s comment that you said you can change on a dime. Never wrong is my conclusion since you can always change to the right side at any moment.
BTW, dollar index is undeterministic since it is relative to other fiat currencies. Others can also print as much as US if not more. There are a lot of crisis in Europe and the fundamental is weak. Japan faces fierce competition from Korea and China and they cannot stop treating these two countries as inferior and take proper actions.
Birdman says:
Got to be flexible Lawrence. Times are changing. Better than being stick in the mud stupid through years of precious metals price declines. Oh but eventually the super gold-bulls will be right. One day. We are all waiting for that (!). And then those cement-footed fools will parade around naked and claim how smart they were all along because, well you know…….gold always goes up.
Even when it was going down. The funny part is some of them even use charts! Ha Ha Ha!!!!
glenfidish says:
Gary and others,
My comments towards gary changing on a dime was not in any way trying to rude. It was in reference to jay that with gary there is no sleeping. Meaning he can change his tone quickly for the benefit of everyone. It is one of the main reason i tune into all the guys every morning. I just hate the fact that by the time I listen to the show al or your first segment, it’s already 11:00am toronto time and the market has already been open for an hour and a half or so.. Very delayed for myself.
Peter R. says:
Cant be completely wrong about the $ without being completely wrong about gold. Just saying.
HEAVYHITTER says:
This is the BIG MYSTERY …when does the big gold spike begin.
From 1200, 1180, 1100, 1050, 950 or is it…
NOW !!!!!! 1200 – 1260 within several weeks.
There again, gold may just trade in a range.
PLACE YOUR BETS GENTLEMEN !!!! Ladies too..
If you miss the big spike and then you will also lose
the opportunity.
This is why speculation is can be so dangerous, highly
emotional, offers great losses and fortunes.
HA…HA….YOU NEED NERVES OF STEEL !!!!
Especially in precious metals.
This is the very reason rarely anyone makes
any money in these precious metals markets.
They can’t hang on….NO GUTS…NO GLORY.
Deal with it. Its not only the characteristics of
precious metals being highly volatile/risky but
in the end with a persons conviction leads to
great fortunes.
No one makes money complaining, moaning, blaming
everyone else and the market.
YOU MAKE MONEY BECAUSE YOU HAVE THE
CONVICTION AND BELIEVE IN WHAT YOU DO.
No matter how much money on paper your losing.
You never lose until you sell. Juniors miners collapsed
by 50% only within 2 years see gains of 500 %.
Did you lose, no. THIS IS THE GAME THAT IS IN PLAY.
NOW, IF YOU DON’T GET IT…stay out of precious metals.
DO YOURSELF A FAVOR AND OTHERS AROUND YOU..
you will moan and complain for the rest of your life
because you shouldn’t be investing in precious metals
only to lose money.
CFS says:
I suspect many here might watch Fox News…..at least a semi-conservative channel in a world of left-wing Propaganda.
I don’t watch TV, but was distressed at Fox’s comments about Boobs on the Ground, regarding a female UAE fighter pilot.
The Fox commntator really simply displyed his ignotance of life in the Emirates. Unlike the absolute sexist attitudes displayed throughout much of the Middle East, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, two of the seven Emirates are fairly enlightened.
Sure, there is still segregation by sex in the Mosques, but the general life is advancing into the twentieth/twenty-first centuries.
J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:
It is Halloween time…….BOOBS on the GROUND….or….is this because you watched franky last post…………….
Al Korelin says:
I am not really a big Fox fan anymore. Too much theater. But then again, that is what sells ads!
Al Korelin says:
Great comments Heavy!
Birdman says:
You trying to encourage him Al?
Big Al says:
Just trying to be a good Christian, Bird!
HEAVYHITTER says:
Forgive me Big AL..
If someone wants to be successful in the precious
metals market my comments in my post spells it
out precisely how to be a big winner/make fortunes.
I’m highly confident Bob Moriarty can concur with everything
in those comments to be successful in precious metals.
Has nothing to do with Christian values. I was in the trenches
in these dangerous highly volatile precious metals markets with
huge amounts of capital at risk.
Bird can’t relate to it because he lives in denial anyway claiming
the gold miners should be shut down. He’s on the complete opposite
end of everything with respect to the gold business.
Quite dangerous to be in communication with regarding the opportunities
that represents in the gold trade. Listening to someone like that will destroy
a rare opportunity that comes around rarely.
Sorry, I have no respect for him any longer. In fact, why he is here just find it
difficult to swallow his motivations. Its a deliberate agenda he has pursuing
and discouraging any investors who is interested in gold. The behavior is far
from normal and apparently he has nothing better to do with his time.
Sorry Big AL, those are the facts. Been here long enough to know now.
Birdman says:
Gold is my favourite investment by a long shot, HH. Don’t judge what you don’t know.
Al Korelin says:
What do Christian values have to do with it?
HEAVYHITTER says:
Yes Big AL…
Christian values have nothing to do with hard cold facts.
Not in this case. However, don’t get me wrong the gesture
was kind but at the same time the information in the post
is completely accurate. Not because someone wants to agree
to be nice. The post gives those a reality check investing in
precious metals. It clearly represents all truth. Only those who
wouldn’t agree lack the hands on experience.
IN FACT, THEY HAVE NO IDEA WHAT THEIR DOING.
Majority or about 98 % fail walking away with huge profits.
HEAVYHITTER says:
Then why do you state gold has no purpose whatsoever and
the gold mines should all be shut down. It ruins the environment.
WHY DO YOU CONTINUE TO MAKE THESE KIND OF STATEMENTS.
I know why, you don’t like gold and anything you say now is a cover up.
You have been consistent ever since i can remember.
Birdman says:
That is not what I said. Go back and read my posts. It is only a specific type of mining that I think has no good purpose in todays world because that form is so hard on the environment and the product that comes out is only added to above ground vaults. You dig it up then lock it in a room where it sits for generations if not centuries. That is a waste of scarce resources in my opinion. Being a bull on gold is fine but there has got to be some common sense about it too. What real difference does a thousand extra tonnes make in the big picture if you ended up destroying a river or lake in the process? That is not smart. If it is copper on the other hand it can be justified. We need copper. We use every pound of it that is mined and the world cannot function without it. We do NOT need more gold though as existing stocks are adequate for a thousand more years into the future. Think about for a few seconds before you start bothering me again.
HEAVYHITTER says:
You said ..Think about it. There’s nothing to think about.
ITS PREPOSTEROUS. Doesn’t add up.
When governments can maintain fiscal
responsiblity with all their expenditures
and stop borrowing gobbs of money that
can never be paid back maybe you are on
to something.
UNTIL THEN, ITS UNTHINKABLE.
People like jewelry and there are many
other good important uses for gold too.
Your problem as its always been since
I’ve viewed all your posts there is nothing
to suggest gold is your favorite investment.
Quite the opposite and to the contrary.
Not only that you are extremely fickle.
You could warm up to gold one day and
be screaming its useless metal the next.
Anything warm is remotely not very liked.
It’s rare to if you do.
Al Korelin says:
Heavy you and Bird have more in common than you might think!
HEAVYHITTER says:
Since when are you concerned about the environment.
Thats very difficult to believe. Otherwise, you would
mention other concerns in the eco system. Really,
you are desperate and running out of bearish arguments.
EXHAUSTING EVERY OPTION
Anyone who pays attention to your gold analysis and
takes your advise has only one bias opinion for gold.
YOU ARE BEARISH 24/7/365 with a tiny trickle of positive
charge. Like the size of a tiny molecule.
You will be bearish all the way down like now and bearish all
the way up.
YOU HAVE DECIDED DISCOURAGING AS MANY INVESTORS AS YOU
CAN TO BE A FAVORITE PASS TIME.
Nothing better to do. Nothing more fruitful in life. WEIRD AND STRANGE.
VERY MUCH SO. Unbelievable! !!
Birdman says:
Heavy you and Bird have more in common than you might think!
————
IMake me laugh! Care to offer an example Al.
HEAVYHITTER says:
Big Al was just…kiddin around.
ITS WAS A JOKE…BIRD…
laugh your buns off..
BTW…are you drinkin again..not lightly but heavily.
You smoke fatties… ? The content is some of your
posts are far fetched.
Gold will remain as a deterrent against corruption.
It serves its purpose in society. Even though we have
gold they continue to be as reckless as ever. Gold will
one day respond. When it does, most commonly huge
gains are a big surprise.
STAY TUNED… the rubber is guaranteed to meet the road.
GOLD IS GOING UP. We might go down one last time.
HEAVYHITTER says:
One other point that is extremely concerning.
SAVERS, CAN’T SAVE ANYMORE.
They are being demoralized with fiat currency.
Everyone does not want to speculate.
THIS IS A MAJOR PROBLEM.
Gold is now evolving as a financial instrument to
facilitate a new form of security for those that want
to save but not be penalized for doing so.
Very reason why China is accumulating so much gold.
ITS THE AGE OF A NEW DAWN.
Birdman says:
So how high will gold be at the end of the year, HH? You say it is going up. Tell me how much so I can make bets now. Would you estimate 20% or 30% for example? Maybe gold will finish the year at 2000 or above! Matthew said 1550 but he is a fool. What’s your best guess?
HEAVYHITTER says:
Bird no predictions. Best you read my original
post on the forum near the top of the page.
Also, please read Bob M. comments with mine
following his reply.
Then we can discuss more in detail. However, I
firmly believe 2000 is possible by end of summer
2015 or much sooner.
By end year is difficult. This sideway down and up
could continue for many weeks.
Originally, I was more bullish but its not without merit.
The targets are still in play for higher gold.
Not investment advise as precious metals offer both
high risk and enormous rewards.
Read my post like i said near the top of the page.
Most happy to discuss and debate.
HEAVYHITTER says:
BTW…Bird…….Matthew is not a fool.
Would not surprise me if 1400 to 1550 is reached.
I’m not making that prediction but its certainly possible.
My forecast is giving more time for the market to sort
things out.
Be prepared for the worst and best. Most people
have no business speculating in precious metals.
They blindly enter these markets but have no plan
to weather the storm. Failure to recognize there is
plenty of sunshine coming but only think of the worst
in paper losses that is temporary.
Matthew says:
I gave 1550 as target for this year way back in January when Bird was saying $968. Gold almost hit 1400 in March. Who’s closer so far?
HEAVYHITTER says:
Actually, I said back within a few weeks of that
time frame 1450.
I declared gold was still in a bear market.
The 968 target was so out of line a elementary
school student could have done better.
Big reason for it too. Lets see if Bird knows why.
Matthew, I’m countin on ya 1550 will be fine.
We are going to rally. Just how far remains to be seen.
Great xmas gift for the bulls… :◆}
Old scrooge last year ruined xmas for some bulls.
HEAVYHITTER says:
Its time to load up.
Back up the 8 wheeler semi trucks, all the freight trains, ocean freight liners
and cargo planes.
LOAD UP !!!!! A gold spike cometh..
ALLLLLL ABOARD !!!!!!!!!!!! tickets please
Birdman says:
“I gave 1550 as target for this year way back in January” — Matthew
——
And you have repeated the call throughout the year. That little price erection early in the year has gone pretty flaccid though. And it will keep going down until because the love is all gone.
Since you are obviously not a math genius by the way, lets’ help you out with a calculation. Today’s gold price is 1218 for your information. That is 332 dollars below your wild price claims of 1550.
But today’s gold price is a mere 250 dollars above my longstanding call for 968 dollar gold. So actually smartie pants…..I am closer! But lets not split hairs. I have momentum on my side and that pressure is DOWN.
You guys always say gold needs a new narrative…..I say it needs Viagra!
HEAVYHITTER says:
ALLLLLLL ABOARD !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
CFS says:
Peter Grandich’s most recent podcast (Sept 24):
http://relevantradio.streamguys.us/DM%20Archive/DM20140924c.mp3
Birdman says:
I really appreciate Peter refused to use the word “collapse” when the interviewer suggested it. Peter is exercising restraint in his use of language that others could learn something from. Nice change of pace from the fare others put up.
Bill says:
Speaking of collapse. Bob refuses to acknowledge this has been a collapse and he didn’t call any of it. Worse he toutes it’s a bull market in gold and toutes his plays. For you Bobbo lovers pull your head out. Dollar is going higher. DING DING DING. LOL
MA had it exactlyy right. I can’t stand those who point out the 10% they are right and avoide how wrong they are. That’s just bloody dangerous
Birdman says:
I agree Bill. The thesis of these guys all centered around a dollar collapse idea that has since been totally destroyed and yet they refuse to accept they were 100% wrong in all the assessment.
Since they got the dollar wrong they also got gold wrong. Total morons. They would not accept any counsel other that their own and instead led their followers down a garden path to the woodshed.
Like trying to teach dogs to eat with forks.
BCJ says:
Wondering What Caused You to Change Your Mind
I’m a long-time listener of the KE Report and I find all of the analysts, as well as the hosts, to be very intelligent, hard-working and honest people. I don’t expect the analysts to get their forecast right all of the time, but it would be helpful to have more of “I used to think this . . . but now I think this. I was mistaken because of xyz.” Some of that happens, but not much. For instance, early this year Gary thought that gold would break it’s 2013 double-bottom, then he changed his mind in late June/early July and now he is back on his original forecast–only that the double-bottom will not break until next summer. Doc was very certain that late May/early June would be a huge buying opportunity. Gold wasn’t supposed to drop into the low 1200s again, but it did. And Rick seemed to think the bottom would be in for gold at about 1257. Then Doc and Rick were really on the same page when they traveled together in the summer. Now, it seems that Gary, Doc, and Rick are all on the same page that gold will break its double bottom, the only question is when and how far it will fall. Again, it would be helpful to “connect the dots” from earlier this year until now. 8
Al Korelin says:
Thank you BJC, I will send this out to all the contributors.
Great comment. Have a wonderful weekend.
james says:
I second that. Otherwise, whatever is said is like reading tea leaves.
cmc says:
Regarding Doc, at least, I have copious notes from his interviews here and Doc called the July top, right on. Doc was calling for a move down to $1280 in gold for several days in a row in early July and then to see where the price goes to make another call. Once there, Doc continued the call for lower gold prices, and he was right. Doc makes short term calls that have been accurate, and at the same time stipulates that we will have to wait before making further calls until we get there. Doc is very deliberate in his short term calls.
I really appreciate the comments from all the contributors. I think a connect-the-dots session will bear out their usefulness. I think they all missed the short term fall beginning in March, but I wasn’t taking good notes then, so I could be wrong about that. No one can win them all.
Al Korelin says:
Many thanks CMC!
J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:
SEG.6…..Thanks for Jeff… on the comments of the “MARJORITY”…..AND Central States.
Al Korelin says:
We have a lot of respect for Jeff. He is truly a good American!
glenfidish says:
I don’t mind morgan but sometimes he says all the things that one would love to here but is far from reality..
Do you guys all in here believe that it cost silver producers 23 dollars an ounce to produce silver? I know a fair amount of companies get it below 13 bucks an ounce. Primero mining is one of them led by a fantastic ceo name conway.
There are many examples of this. I’d like to here others honest opinion?
Tis the reason why I think silver can go to 15 or lower.
Birdman says:
22 dollar silver cost of production is pure unadulterated propaganda.
Matt says:
Give three examples of junior companies producing silver at a profit here and now and you will list three of a handful of the last silver junior producers producing profits in Q3/ 14.
Lawrence says:
Juniors have a lot of other issues so profitability is hard to say. I want to get one senior silver producer which makes money. I asked here many times and even the people who claim low silver mining cost cannot give me example. Please share,
Al Korelin says:
Morning Lawrence.
Call Arturo from Santa Cruz.
I will be happy to put you in touch with him.
Lawrence says:
I will check their information. Thanks.
Matt says:
Re: Santa Cruz
http://www.santacruzsilver.com/s/news_releases.asp?ReportID=671742
$22 .72 cash costs per oz
$25.39 per oz AISC -last quarter they were $35.49 per oz
CFS says:
Listening on the radio today…..talk about propaganda!
On both Canadian radio (e.g. CKNW out of Vancouver) and WLS (out of Chicago) both emphasized British involvement in the coalition attack on ISIL.
Here’s the actual truth.
Two British fighter jets (tornados) took off from Akotiri air force base in Cyprus. They flew over Iraq. They did not fire a shot and returned to Cyprus.
Just for the record the US is putting on a bit of a sham war.
They killed at least 2 Humvees (that had been abandoned with bombs that cost more than the vehicles ) and also attacked some empty houses in the Kurdish region of Syria.
Some of the cruise missiles might have killed some ISIL fighters. (I expect they did.) Some 20 civilians are reported dead, with 50 civilian injuries. However, this is difficult to verify.
Al Korelin says:
Some of us agree, Professor!
JMiller says:
Most things are difficult to verify.
J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:
At $13 production cost…..LOOKS like a great take over target for the majors…..
J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:
btw….I question anything Dave Morgan has to say…..unless you are paying for his newsletter……….JMHO.
Birdman says:
It was a good interview, David is a pretty good guy.
Big Al says:
He actually is a good guy.
glenfidish says:
j long,
Last time I checked it was somehwere around that price. I currently don’t own primero for the simply reason that im overweight in others. But any company that is led by conway is a winner in my books. The guy has a proven track record.
Hey Doc, there is another gem to add to iamgold..
Make that two companies.
J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:
glenfidish………..thanks for the info………..
Matthew says:
In 2012, all-in costs (AIC) for the industry was about $30 and all-in sustaining costs (AISC) came in around $25. These numbers have come down substantially, but some companies, like Great Panther, are still around $25 for their AISC (this means AIC would be even higher).
Many companies still use “Cash Costs” in their presentations which are not even close to the same thing as AIC or even AISC, and can be very misleading. You can cut through the bs by looking at profitability. If the industry is losing money at current spot prices, then current spot prices are below the cost of production.
http://silverseek.com/commentary/2013-full-year-results-top-primary-miners-real-cost-produce-silver-13222
Matt says:
……and Matthew succinctly separates the wheat from the chaff.
Birdman says:
Oh look Ma….its a spectator!
Matt says:
Oh,look world-it’s a paper derivative market rigged to hold together a corrupt fiat system.Let’s here from somebody with some valid insider insight:
The American House of Cards continues to stand only as a result of the tolerance of the world for vast corruption and disinformation and because greed is satisfied by the money made from a rigged system.
–Dr. Paul Craig Roberts
Matthew says:
PCR is right.
“When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe.” —Frederic Bastiat
The sheeple, with their vast ignorance, have chosen catastrophe as their teacher, yet again.
Lawrence says:
Matthew,
Even the example used in above calculation Endeavor Silver is losing money this year, a lot of money. I added it last year since it was the best one and the only two making money. I spent lot of time to do research and time is wasted. This sector lives on investor funding and is non-profit charity sector.
Ann says:
Regarding Primero, i was under the impression that they had or still have an agreement to sell the majority of their yearly silver production to Silver Wheaton at approx.$4.00, due to the silver purchase agreement they ” inherited”
Lawrence says:
Thanks for the information.
Ann says:
So.. At a production cost of $13 as stated here, and a sell back at $4 ?? My apologies if i am missing something here?
Matthew says:
You’re not missing anything. They had to raise a lot of money and I’m sure they explored the pluses and minuses of their options. Still, Primero remains a cash cow and now has greater leverage to gold since acquiring Brigus. It is short-sighted investors and those who are less bullish on the price of gold that didn’t like the deal, in my opinion.
Glenfidish says:
This is correct ann.. I could name a few more under 13 bucks all in sustaining but then I would have to charge you guys.
Glenfidish says:
Sorry confusion Matt is correct. They are locked in at 4 bucks not sure of the terms.
Ann says:
Thankyou very much for the replys back! You guys are awesome.. All of you!!
Glenfidish says:
Ann that last time I looked at primero they had a certain number of production at 4 dollars locked in. The rest of there production is a substantial amount that is sold at market price. They were in the process of getting out of those terms and negotiations where suppose to happen. Unfortunately I don’t know the current status but ann I know one thing, Conway current CEO is the guy you want. If given the opportunity I may jump in on this one as I can see it being a winner when prices go up.
Matthew says:
I agree with your view of Conway. I scooped up Primero warrants and friends of mine bought shares in the summer of 2012 well under $3.00. Many individual stocks bottomed much earlier than the rest of the sector.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=P.TO&p=W&yr=5&mn=3&dy=0&id=p72474029617&a=368626684
J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:
See, I said they would be a good target …………regarding Primero………Thanks Ann for the update……………………………..j……………
Mike says:
Love Bob Moriarty. I agree with him and love that he has the guts to say it like it is. I wish he would be interviewed more often.
Dick Tracy says:
Bob backs up what he say’s with facts and in depth knowledge of the situation, that is one of his hallmarks and this makes him very credible in my mind.
Mike says:
Yes agreed DT and he is not affraid of what people will say of him. A very powerul combination for truth telling!
Al Korelin says:
And that Mike is why we value his friendship so much.
Al Korelin says:
Ours also, Machine Gun!
glenfidish says:
As for the beheading he has no facts that it did not happen nor do we have the facts that it did. However there are many facts that in that part of the world beheading is a normal thing with extremist.
Al Korelin says:
I know Glen.
It just seems strange that the victims are so calm. I don’t think even drugs could accomplish that!
Glenfidish says:
This is true al.
CFS says:
On the beheadings, the British and French consulates disagree with Mr. Moriarty. I find it difficult to believe they would have any motive other than suppress such bad news for relatives of the beheaded citizens.
I think Mr. Moriarty’s hatred of Israelis may be affecting his judgement in this area.
I personally have strong problems with the Islamic religion throughout which I find intolerance pervasive and unacceptable. I also have severe dislike of the U.S. President, because of his corrupt and misguided policies, which I feel are destroying the character of the U.S. and its very economic survival as the world’s dominant power. However, in recognizing my polarizations I try to bring forward facts and information from which others may make judgments, rather that mere statements of my personal opinions, although I may add a derogatory comment as an opinion.
Al Korelin says:
All valuable comments, Professor!
cmc says:
That is true, but when the establishment media presents a case I expect it to do a better job of proving it. It’s stories are so strewn with past inaccuracies, I don’t trust it anymore. I have no such reason to distrust Bob’s presentations.
Al Korelin says:
I don’ t eithet cmc.
Al Korelin says:
Fair enough, we will have him on more often.
SD Marc says:
DT,
Spot on……as usual!
Peter endres says:
Who killed 300 people from MH17 flight on Ucrane? If has Russia, the war just started. If was Kiev, every one shut up!
Al Korelin says:
I don’t believe that Russia would take that action because it really had zero to gain.
CFS says:
Mr. Endres, May I remind you that the U.S. mistakenly shot down an Iranian airliner, but there was no war.
It may be a while before the truth is ever known about MH17. Regardless of who shot that airliner down, it is clear it will not be a cause of war. People should still insist for evidence for the cause of the tragedy.
Al Korelin says:
Agree Professor!
CFS says:
Thanks, Dan Oliver, I believe he has a grasp on part of the truth.
Excellent history lesson, Chris. Superb comments. I know you get the big picture.
valentin could have also named the parallel with ownership of Alibaba shares, in which in the USA you actually only get a piece of a holding company in the Cayman Islands.
Jeff Deist illustrates that Libertarianism can be quite divisive to cohesiveness in society.
I wonder if he is pleased that the USA is being destroyed by the President’s policies of an open southern border.
Gary, Doc, Have you not noticed that the general market in stocks appears often manipulated up first thing Monday mornings and last thing Friday afternoons? Just as gold is also manipulated down at those times.
It could be normal market behavior, but much more probably pure manipulation.
I never thought I would strongly disagree with Bob Moriarty. It is indisputable that Big Boy and Little Boy ended the war with Japan. Further, I would posit that without bombing in Germany, especially along the Rhine and Ruhr, the German factory production would have enabled Germany to win BEFORE the U.S. even entered WWII.
This was the best weekend show ever, Big Al.
Al Korelin says:
Thanks Professor, coming from you that is a much appreciated comment!
Matthew says:
Al, I totally agree with Deist and find it somewhat surprising that CFS has it backwards. I say “somewhat” because neocons are really just another strain of the socialist left. Both are made of collectivists who favor coercion, not cooperation. Both are always happy to sacrifice the individual “for the greater good.” Both believe that a central authority endorsed by a majority has every right to steal for whatever reason they come up with. One is duped by the war on terror, the other is duped by global warming. Neither understands that “cohesiveness” is impossible when one segment of society is constantly trying to force the rest of society to bend to its will.
Mr. Conservative himself, Russell Kirk, commented the neocons were “often clever, never wise.” In a lecture at the Heritage Foundation, Kirk said:
“Presidents Woodrow Wilson, Franklin Roosevelt, and Lyndon Johnson were enthusiasts for American domination of the world. Now George Bush appears to be emulating those eminent Democrats. When the Republicans, once upon a time, nominated for the presidency a “One World” candidate, Wendell Willkie, they were sadly trounced. In general, Republicans throughout the twentieth century have been advocates of prudence and restraint in the conduct of foreign affairs.[25]
Unless the Bush Administration abruptly reverses its fiscal and military course, I suggest, the Republican Party must lose its former good repute for frugality, and become the party of profligate expenditure, “butter and guns.” And public opinion would not long abide that. Nor would America’s world influence and America’s remaining prosperity.[25]
Yet presidents of the United States must not be encouraged to make Perpetual War for Perpetual Peace, nor to fancy that they can establish a New World Order through eliminating dissenters. In the second century before Christ, the Romans generously liberated the Greek city-states from the yoke of Macedonia. But it was not long before the Romans felt it necessary to impose upon those quarrelsome Greeks a domination more stifling to Hellenic freedom and culture than ever Macedon had been. It is a duty of the Congress of the United States to see that great American Caesars do not act likewise.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russell_Kirk#Kirk_and_neoconservatism
Al Korelin says:
Matthew,
I particularly appreciate your final sentence!
CFS says:
I prefer melting poy over salad bowl, and accept, but do not praise multiculturalism, because multiculturalism implies that all cultures are equally good.
I do not believe all cultures are equally good. I believe society “works” better is there is a set of accepted set of moral values.
How do you feel, for example, about child labor? Perfectly acceptable, even necessary in some cultures.
How do you feel about a culture in which a man is permitted to have 5 wives or a woman to have 5 husbands?
Big Al says:
And, of course, your point is well taken Professor!
Birdman says:
Nothing at all wrong with more than one wife. The cultures that adopted the idea were ones where war casualties amongst men were just so high that few potential mates remained for the numbers of women. Marrying more than one woman or accepting a deceased brothers wife as your own was actually an answer to a serious problem. It was more about the welfare of children that might otherwise be orphaned and keeping the integrity of the family intact.
Matthew says:
Whatever the reasons for people’s beliefs, what business is it of anyone else? Forced collectivism and conformity is just fine for the non-thinking majority until, of course, THEY are expected to bear the costs and conform to beliefs that they do not share.
CFS, are you crediting government for society’s moral values? Worse, are you suggesting that government itself is moral? It is precisely because theft and unprovoked force are considered immoral that civilized society and rapacious governments are incompatible. Theft is universally considered wrong —except when the government does it. This goes for many other wrongs, as well. Until the population is completely dumbed down, this will be a problem.
Nothing will ever improve as long as this cognitive dissonance persists. If an action is really wrong, then it is wrong for everyone, no exceptions. Conflicts in people’s thinking results in double standards, unsound actions, and, of course, negative consequences. Example: Some of the U.S.’s founders; Austrian economists; and others with common sense, knew that counterfeiting currency is very destructive no matter who does it, and especially when nations themselves do it.
Government is the reason we don’t have child labor? No, child labor is eliminated when society’s productivity is great enough, and that means free markets.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S7Qf0ey-pOo
Matthew says:
Four Things the State is Not
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2_dPLBlvDI
Dick Tracy says:
For one thing when Nagasaki and Hiroshima were bombed that spelt annihilation for Japan and eventually the World not destruction. Hence it hasn’t been used again, not to say it won’t be in the future.
You must remember that German factories were constructed underground by forced labor so the bombs had little effect on their wartime production, but what did bring them to their knees was the bombing of above ground fuel depots, so in that one respect I concur.
CFS says:
You should study history, D.T.
I believe you are incorrect.
May I remind you I lived in Germany as a child of an Officer in the forces of post-WWII occupation and have more recently lived there almost 3 years and over the years have had many conversa transportation was significant.
For instance, it is fairly obvious that the very act of constructing below ground production facilities in itself displaces workers from some munitions production. Germany did not exactly have excess labor or electrical power or oil at any time.
CFS says:
? Most of a paragraph disappear!
Dick Tracy says:
CFS, you should read inside “The Third Reich”, written by Albert Speer’ while he was imprisoned in Landsberg at the end of World War 11. In case you don’t know who Speer was he was Hitler’s personal architect before the war and Hitler’s munitions minister during the war. I think you should study this war as you don’t even realize that The Germans used forced labor from their occupied countries and barely fed them as they regarded most as sub human. The fact that you lived there for a few years means nothing my relatives came from there and if they could speak you would get an earful. Germany had lots of oil from Romania when it was conquered, they also had coal gasification plants built by slave labor that produced diesel for their Panzers. Russia was also a source of petroleum for The Third Reich until they smashed The Wehrmacht.
I think you should go to the library and do some reading before you start spouting off about something you know nothing abut.
bb says:
There were a few errors that Germany made that can be argued cost them the war.
Donitz for example wanted 300 u boats to start the war with, he got 67? which brought Britain to within aprox 48 hours of capitulation.
Gadirian? was stopped before he captured the entire bef and French forces.
How about not producing the me 262?
The list is actually pretty interesting, caused me to believe in divine intervention.
Anyway, all these arguments are pointless, Germany only needed to hold off another year or so, their nuclear bombs would have won it for them hands down.
Speaking of bombing, it was bombing that slowed the creation of these weapons long enough for the allies or maybe the Russians to crush Germany.
Bob Moriarty says:
The two nukes ended the war with Japan but they didn’t win the war. the war was won months before. The Japanese wanted to surrender but the US insisted on unconditional surrender. The Japanese wanted to protect the Emperor and in the end, we agreed to terms they would have accepted long before August of 1945.
Bombing countries has never shortened a war, only hardened the attitude of the people being bombed. If bombing is successful, why is DOD talking about a campaign lasting years? Boots on the ground are required to win any war.
HEAVYHITTER says:
OK….Bob M….321gold guru..
Enjoyed your site for many years.
Now for the big question. ???? regarding ole yellar.
No obligation to reply. However, maybe you
can give us your latest analysis with respect
to the future in golds bottom and if you see
sharply higher prices soon.
Might be a lot to ask but, if you don’t ask..
you don’t get.
Bo Polny see’s a good spike up as I do
in my own reasoning. Not agreeing with
Bo its just how I see it. Things are lining
up.
Just interesting how you Bob might view
this gold trade moving forward.
Thanks for 321gold and contribution here
to this site. Peace and prosperity to you !!!
Bob Moriarty says:
I’m a contrarian. Everyone hates gold right now, the XAU/Gold is back to where it was in Jun 2013, Dec 2013, Jun 2014, dollar has gone up 10 weeks in a row, JYen falling off a cliff, I’m a buyer with both hands and both feet. The oldest measure of gold sentiment is at an all time low. It has to be a bottom. That said, the mistake I and many others made was to not take profits when we could. Buy low, we are low, and sell high.
J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:
thanks for the insight Bob…………YOU called the parabolic move on silver , and nobody listened…………..except a few..like DT….so , my hat off to you…….OOTB.
HEAVYHITTER says:
Absolutely Bob. Problem is Boss you never know when these
shares go straight up like when HUI was sitting at 50.
Had huge wins with DROOY, BGO, CDE, HECLA GFI back
in 2001 to 2004. Drooy so.African gold still in biz and
BGO was Bema Gold. Also, had Homestake. 8 fold within
a year on average.
In Oct. 1999 was another time. 3 fold in 3 days. 6 months
though accumulating shares prior to the huge rise.
My point is I believe we will see that again over the next
12 months. Everything is now lined up. Just as you stated
in your post but will add gold miners are so incredibly cheap
it almost mirrors the time when HUI was sitting at 50. Gold
was about 280 then. So if we do the math these shares will
explode like 2001 to 2004.
Thanks a million for your reply. Your not just another voice
but someone who has been through the trenches and knows
his business. Not only that, you are second to none. Well, maybe
you and Mr. Rick Rule are a tie for first place. Both of you are
the best mentors in the business. Offering the best knowledge
in this market. Ha…and ignore the bloggers. When in was on the
old Kitco forum 15 years ago it was great. A few real highly educated
guys even one I was good friends with in S. Africa. knew the mining
business like no one in the business. If he was here today he would
be buying shares in the miners. Grateful for you input Bob…have a
good one !!!! :◆}
BTW..The old Kitco forum was shut down because of the trolls. They just
couldn’t get out of their own way. Gold was going to 00000000. LOL
Bobby says:
I prefer to follow the money
Matthew says:
If you followed the money, Bobby, the huge increase in volume in the junior miners would mean something to you. Smart money is flowing in as dumb money takes the “opportunity” to get out.
Below the following chart is volume. The horizontal bars on the left of the chart shows volume by price. This is one massive and very bullish base being built.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=3&mn=3&dy=0&id=p63183561922
HEAVYHITTER says:
Matthew, I think Bobby is infatuated with the general markets.
Oh, he might even be having an affair with the USDX.
Last, but least…he loves company.
bb says:
The war ending in Japan before the nukes is how Ive always seen it. They were not really necessary, but some have mentioned they might have been used to make Russia think or used as retribution for war crimes.
Bombing can be argued that it doesn’t directly shorten a war, but it definitely reduces the ability to fight or continue effectively a war.
bb says:
Just thinking about the bombing disrupting the manufacture of German nuclear weapons.
Bombing may not have won the war for the “good guys” but it definatly helped to prevent the Germans from winning.
Anyone interested in the era, check out Horton, he was working on stealth technology for the Germans among other things. They were way ahead of anyone else, they just attacked a little too soon.
CFS says:
Did I state “won the war”?
“I never thought I would strongly disagree with Bob Moriarty. It is indisputable that Big Boy and Little Boy ended the war with Japan. Further, I would posit that without bombing in Germany, especially along the Rhine and Ruhr, the German factory production would have enabled Germany to win BEFORE the U.S. even entered WWII.” is what I stated.
I believe the nukes saved lives, in that the U.S. did, indeed, want unconditional surrender and Japan was dragging its feet in that regard. There is no doubt in my mind that the Japanese fighters, well dug in on the remaining islands and Japan itself, that would have to be taken, would have caused the loss of tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of allied lives.
With regard to continental WWII, I still believe hitting production and transportation infrastructure played a vital part in winning that war; despite “pissing” off the enemy.
As regards the war against ISIL, I doubt any ideological war can ever be won by use of armaments, period. (regardless of whether the ideology is errant or real Islam, It is what is perceived by ISIL.)
I personally question whether even boots on the ground could “win” this war.
My personal philosophy, for what it’s worth, is that if a country fights a war it should use whatever tactics necessary to win that war; if it cannot believe it can win the war using tactics that are acceptable to its people, then it should find an alternative to fighting the war.
I believe that with respect to the ISIL “war”, Obama is fairly clueless with regard as the best course of action, and that what is perceived to be happening by the general public may, indeed, be far from what is actually happening.
Birdman says:
I agree CFS. I really enjoyed the show too. Especially Chris’s reflections on the past.
CFS says:
Bird, I am clearly a Gold Bull long term. I have never hidden that fact.
I find it difficult to think of many ways of preserving and/or moving wealth other than gold.
Artwork, antiques, real estate, even diamonds may preserve wealth, but have difficulties associated with liquidity or the bid-offer price spread.
I no longer try to predict any price-time combination, because of mistakes I have learnt from the past. I do, however, firmly believe that over long periods of time that gold will preserve wealth for my descendants, so I don’t worry too much about rises and falls over short periods of time.
I do like to predict price movements, not from technical analysis, but from fundamentals. If I make any error in my predictions, I believe that it is because I have not known all the relevant factors necessary for the prediction. i.e. I did not fully understand everything.
It is an interesting project, because I believe also that the price of almost everything is being manipulated by central banks. Thus for price evaluation, not only must one have all the classical fundamental knowledge of the gold market, one must also understand what the central banks are doing; both how and why.
Matt says:
Right on,CFS!
Birdman says:
Don’t be shocked if I say I am in agreement with you on many of those points, CFS!
james says:
I have a first edition Brookings report published in the early 40s regarding the ability of the USSR, The British Empire and Nazi Germany to wage war. Solid estimates of resources, man power, war machine etc, and from it one could conclude that Nazi Germany vs USSR or Nazi Germany vs The British Empire would have ended in a lengthy stalemate. Nazi Germany against both would have ended in defeat for Germany regardless of the USA entering the war.
bb says:
I agree with that James.
Couple things you didn’t mention, the German technology and the German tactics.
Just prior to the war Von Braun was planning space travel for example, tactics wise they basically had the war won very quickly, at least against the allies.
On the other hand, ideology can be argued prevented victory.
james says:
Certainly Germany was at the forefront of technological progress as they had been prior to the rise of the Nazis, however they had a tendency to continually improve their war machines during the war with the result that parts became a problem for them. In that sense their desire for perfecting ended up lowering their rate of production. In addition, concentrating on advanced technologies rather than tried and tested ones made their war machine less effective by diverting resources to experimental designs. Also, it is clear from the Brookings report that the British Empire was not geared up for war. One could add that the French were not geared up for war either and so they capitulated as did many of the countries in mainland Europe.
As far as I am concerned, the whole thing could have been avoided, including the rise of Nazism, had there been a fair settlement to WWI and German people and land hadn’t been given over to other countries.
bb says:
Yupper James, ww2 was set up at the treaty of Versille(sp).
Right about the Germans being pretty much the only nation being prepared for a war as well. So prepared in fact they didn’t really understand how powerful they actually were.
They did constantly try improving their equipment, to much as you say. Might be opinion tho.
Main battle tank was actually made in Cechoslovakia and wasn’t the panther or tiger we see so often in movies. Forget its name tho.
But the nuclear waepons they could have produced with maybe another year of not being disturbed, again, they didn’t really understand what they had even if Hitler believed these weapons would change the world.
Out of interest check out what Horton was working on, amasing for the time, stealth technology for one.
Idiology has been the best argument for their defeat that I have herd so far for them losing the war.
I literally wonder about divine intervention, is no way they should have lost.
Actually, they should have won the first war too, but their armies turned south I believe to meet French armies instead of taking Paris.
Best laid plans, I guess.
Dai Uy says:
As a Yank, the more I read and research the more confused I am in terms of PM direction as evidenced by being a charter member of the buy high, sell low club for the past 3-4 years.
Yesterday at close, the greenback was 12.5 cents higher than the Looney which at first blush may indicate that an allocated fund offered by Sprott for example may be something to look into. The fees for such appear to be reasonable and I’m assuming that Sprott funds are denominated in Canadian Funds which at first blush would indicate a bigger bang for the buck for me than for our Canadian friends given the current strength of the greenback.
To Cory, our resident in house accounting guru or anyone else: Is this fuzzy economic thinking? Any tax advantage beside capital gains vis a vis higher bullion tax rates if someday a profit?
As always, an excellent week-end show.
Al Korelin says:
Thanks Dai.
Wazzu vs Utes should be a good game. We have a lot of time for the Cougs after the last game!
CFS says:
Sprott manages both US and Canadian-denominated funds.
Lawrence says:
This is exactly what is happening. Look at profitability can be really simple. What you get minus what we cost you to produce is the profit. Grade one math is required. Cash cost is a propaganda. It is a creation for money losing companies to raise money. Regardless how low one particular cost, if it lose money without capability to raise money, it has to close.
Lawrence says:
This referring to Metthew’s cash cost post.
Matthew says:
I just noticed that the link to this chart I put up yesterday isn’t working:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX:$GDM&p=M&yr=20&mn=11&dy=30&id=p33151726393&a=367597106
The S&P 500 priced in gold miners, not dollars, is at resistance.
sfc says:
Dang, you boys see this?
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2014/09/taliban-storm-afghanistan-beheadings.html
Looks like Bob M needs to hop in that Corsair of his and save some Afghanny fanny.
After 3 trillion plus dollars things are really falling apart in Iwreck and Afghanistan.
Al Korelin says:
I did not see that. Going to verify now.
Al Korelin says:
Could find no recent invasion.
sfc says:
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/09/26/uk-afghanistan-attacks-idUKKCN0HL0IB20140926
sfc says:
Even more ways to waste taxpayer money in Afghanistan.
Now governors of US states are going over there…
Ways to waste money in Afghanistan are endless. Here’s another case in point: Cuomo Makes Surprise Trip to Afghanistan.
Read more at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/#h33cdZBJS0JVeHbw.99
Al Korelin says:
Thank you.
bb says:
Geez, not often I can disagree with Bob Moriarity, gotta mention Penumunde Bob.
Guess I figure the allied bombing in WW2 had an effect.
bb says:
There are a few notables about bombing, dams and ball bearing plants come to mind.
Or maybe the other side, ju 87s being used kinda well.
Odd actually to think bombing only “ticks” people off, altho it does that too.
sfc says:
I generally agree with Bob about most things but he got one thing wrong.
It’s not 5 million that the US gummit spent trying to destablize Ukraine, it’s 5 billion.
And anyone with even half a brain knows that ISIS is a US gummit created monster just like Al Qaeda.
The US gummit blew trillions in Iraq and Afghanistan and that is just on the meddling in two countries. The US gummit meddles in nearly every country on the planet.
The thing I DON’T understand is why the US people tolerate it. It’s costing trillions that the average tax serf is going to get stuck with in higher taxes and inflation AND it creates enemies all over the world for the average tax serf. Ain’t gummit great!
Al Korelin says:
I believe (I am positive) that we all said $5billion.
Birdman says:
Great show Al. I appreciate all the hard work you guys do.
Birdman says:
Off topic a little, but I had a pair of stones given to me this past weekend that are absolutely fascinating. They were made for grinding wheat and corn and probably date back a hundred years of more.
It is hard to describe them in a short paragraph but basically one is the grinding surface which is a bowl shaped curved stone maybe 20 inches long and the other is the hand tool used to actually crush the grains and dry seeds.
These rocks are still commonly used in Africa, especially in rural areas, and similar ones have been unearthed in the US where they were used by the native Americans prior to the introduction of steel.
Anyway, it is a real treasure to me. I was amazed at how well it still works although it takes a lot of muscle and quite a bit of time to grind up enough wheat for porridge or bread. I saw a slim older lady make a few cups of flour in no time at all though and make my brave efforts look pretty foolish.
What is really interesting is these grain grinding stones are typically made by the lady of the household. She will go out and locate the right kind of rocks herself from quarries that have been in use for many, many hundreds of years. Pure stone age technology and a brilliant design.
I am told a good set lasts 50 to 100 years so they get passed down between generations and are an essential asset in the many Africa homes in the wilderness that are not served by electric power or do not have modern grain grinding mills. It is incredible really that such technologies still exist in this day and age.
Many of these people would not have the cash to pay others to do their grinding anyway. So the backbreaking task of making stone ground bread each day for a family of 6 to 10 people falls on the back of the mother. The head of the household is usually a woman here. She manages all the affairs in the home whereas the husbands job is to herd animals or earn an income any way they can.
This probably isn’t very interesting for most people but to me it is amazing. This has got to be the ultimate tool in the arsenal of a true prepper who wants to be able to have the technology to create bread and flour without depending on on any manufactured manual steel rotary tools that might some day fail.
Guess it is back to the future for those who really need to know how food production was done in days gone past. In this case the tools are actually still in use. I tried mine grinding dried peppers, wheat, pepper corns, barley and a few others things. Works great!
Here is a photo that is quite similar to my treasure for those who are curious.
Traditional Grain Grinding Stones – Africa Style
http://www.cerealsdb.uk.net/cerealgenomics/WheatBP/Documents/DOC_Milling.php
J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:
Could be a sign……………..getting crushed…………in the stone age of gold……..or between a rock and a hard place……………ootb.
Birdman says:
Funny Jerry, maybe that is where that old expression comes from. I will say this though, if I really had to depend on one of these to make food each day I would probably starve. Cripes, it is much harder to grind wheat than I ever thought. Probably I need more tips and techniques though. Maybe they made the grains wet first because dry kernels are brutal work to crush down even with heavy rocks.
J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:
I think they get it wet first, for beer, then get high after they test the mesh.., then grind the dry , makes for a better experience……………………ootb
Birdman says:
So you are saying I need to get loaded first? OK, thanks for the tip!
J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:
Yes, get loaded first, then ,when you smash your finger ….it will not hurt as much…..!
Al Korelin says:
Can’t you just drive down to Savon?
Birdman says:
Drinking and driving is still illegal over there isn’t it? Ha Ha! Even to get to Save-on maybe. But seriously Al…we don’t have supermarkets here like back in the US. Not in the small towns and villages anyway. You just go from shop to shop and pick up what you need as you go. A kilo of tomatoes in one place. Avocados from the street seller. Sacks of flour come from a guy who does nothing else except sell flour (and booze). Very little is processed. I get fresh eggs from the chicken lady next door each morning. My milk is raw and unprocessed from a guy down the street so it needs to be pasteurized before drinking it and it’s better to buy it early before it becomes a bacteria trap. You have to do it all from scratch. That’s life unless you are in the capital or a larger city where they have refrigeration, processed food and imports. But now I can grind wheat on my own….hooray!….! will surely starve to death. 🙂
J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:
He can not drive down to Savon……….he is still trying to find parts for the RAMBLER…!
J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:
Bird………..you need to open your own gold mine……..Just dig a hole in the ground, load a shot gun shell with bits and piece of gold,lload the shell in a shotgun,, shoot it at your toes, make sure to miss, and walla,,,,you have a peppered gold field…………Now, you can start a junior mining company. Make sure to call BOB M. and start advertising.
Birdman says:
Jerry! That’s brilliant. I should make you my manager and we can do a mine together.
J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:
Yes, we can name the mine in honor of anyone who has a fatal heart attack , if gold does not break out ……………WOODA-SHOODA- WHOO-GIVA-DANG
Al Korelin says:
Anything a person does not know is worth hearing about. Thanks, man!
J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:
Not Anything, …….hearing effects the brain, ….and then if you say it , you might start believing it…………………………jmho…………..ootb
irishtony says:
BIRD….While I enjoy most of your posts…this one must be the biggest load of bollocks you ever posted…..people have been doing this for thousands of years….yet you make it sound like this is something that was invented yesterday….YOU HAVE LOST THE PLOT…………………….
Birdman says:
Not at all Tony! Maybe it is only that I discovered it recently. I had not ever given it any thought before so I was kind of impressed by that tool but I guess it’s just newsworthy to me and I love the thing. I see this kind of stuff everyday lately. Plows made of wood and drawn by oxen. Containers that are made with mixed mud, straw and manure. Giant wooden mortars and pestel’s and more stone tools, bowls, hammers and grinders than I can count. It is like being inside a living museum. I suppose I just realized how prevalent these still are and my surprise is how near the stone age is to the 21st century of technologies. They reside side by side. You know what though….when the oil runs out I am pretty certain I know which of the two will survive into the next centuries.
irishtony says:
BIRD…..Thanks for the reply, & I agree totally with your last sentence…..Enjoy the learning curve , the simplest tools are always the best.
Birdman says:
Cool Tony. Did you ever collect any of these antiquities yourself? The British Isles is a treasure trove of things from stone age to bronze. I have a small collection of arrow points I have found here. Purely accidental discoveries. Back in Canada though I used to collect tomahawks and native American utensils. That was many years ago now. I recall at one time a stone bowl would fetch 10 grand but I never did find one of my own. When I was a kid there were still remnants of old totem poles and villages of the long deceased Indians on Vancouver Island. I don’t think much remains anymore but I knew many farmers who were overturning ancient implements during farming. Anyone planting along the side of a lake usually had a hoard of the relics in their home. I am just very impressed by the ingenuity of people who could have a functional society without metals!
Dick Tracy says:
Last night while watching the CBC archeologists think they have found remains of an ancient native settlement that existed 14,000 years ago off the northern coast of British Columbia. This predates the Viking era by some eleven thousand years. This settlement is underwater and they are studying it with submersibles. The reason they say it is so old is because of a formation of stones found that the natives used to trap salmon. According to records this method of fish farming hasn’t been used for that long and now they are looking for primitive tools and other artifacts to substantiate this find.
Birdman says:
Great story DT. Makes you wonder just how much shallower the oceans were back then. Any idea how deep the discovery is?
Dick Tracy says:
The odd part of this story is that they didn’t say how deep in the ocean it was because obviously they could use scuba gear, maybe they are trying to keep this a secret until they have completed their study.
Birdman says:
Most interesting story I heard in a long while is that Canadian Researchers have finally found one of the wrecks of the Franklin Expedition. We learned about that in school but I don’t think any of us ever thought they would actually come up with a whole ship in one piece!
CFS says:
Bird, Interesting story.
I had an uncle who died recently aged 103, who used to grow his own food and grind his own flour until he was in his 80s anyway. Living well off the beaten track, he also had his own well, had wind-generated 12 V DC electrical system, with storage in a set of lead-acid truck batteries, His grandson who inherited the small-holding has recently ungraded to solar power, although curses that the “sun don’t shine” when he needs most power at night. So some survival techniques are still in use, although I don’t believe things will make that necessary.
Birdman says:
Yup, there are always a few people trying to stick with the old traditions, CFS. I think it is fantastic and God bless the prepper’s who are amongst the few in North America trying to retain and relearn the skills of the past.
Somebody has to keep the knowledge alive or it will all be forgotten. I am always amazed at how little most people know about producing basic foods, household chemicals and preservatives.
Our Western consumption societies must be the most vulnerable of all in history as there is a complete dependance on the production of others in distant countries. Who for example still makes soaps or vinegars at home? Most folks would think those are ridiculous hobbies because the costs to buy is so low.
But that is not the point. Certainly it is not a financial consideration at our house and yet my wife does both of those amongst a long list of other skills she learned that our own grandmothers and great grandmothers probably saw as ordinary and took for granted.
I just get a kick out of watching the gals prepare spices by hand. They clean the parts of the plants, sun dry everything, blow off the dusts with big bamboo trays and grind up the various ingredients with giant wooden mallets. Good as store bought (better actually) and you know exactly what went into it. Fresh too.
It is a lifestyle choice I guess. They just seem to have a lot more time for such things in Africa and for me it is a wonder to see the old skills alive in so many of the homes here.
Birdman says:
I came across a great photo of a stone carving of a woman using one of these grain tools. The carving came from a tomb in ancient Egypt. Guess this flour production system has been around in use for many thousands of years with hardly any changes at all. Kind of cool. I found a place on a coffee table in a corner of the house to display my old grinder. And I just keep admiring it!
Stone Carving of Woman Making Flour by Hand -Ancient Egypt
http://www.touregypt.net/featurestories/bread.htm
Dick Tracy says:
Bird, I couldn’t even fathom living where you are, I know it’s East Africa but with the way they are handling Ebola in West Africa it’s only a matter of time. I know what I would have already done.
Birdman says:
DT, you cannot live in fear everyday. We have taken precautions just in case. Stocked up the house for a year for example. Set aside medications and medical supplies. Upgraded the solar system and added new water tanks. Other than that the best defense is simply avoidance and staying out of public places. I am not really worried. Even if I get it my odds are 50/50 at worst but in fact the odds are much improved if you have an education and a good strategy. Lots of re-hydration solution, antibiotics, painkillers, anti-inflammatory’s, IV’s if it gets really bad and enough resources to be able to avoid hospitals, clinics and pharmacies at all costs. Helps if you don’t use public transport or handle physical cash. What else can you do. Run away from every threat? Shoot, there is nowhere to go anyway.
irishtony says:
BIRD…….S*** man you claim to have wealth !!!!!!!…..You have stocked up on A-Z against a virus that has no cure…(at the moment) & you think you & your family are safe!!!!! ……..Me I would gather up my loved ones….& get the “F***” out of there……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
donald says:
I don’t understand. If the basic metal producers make up 70% of silver production, why does David Morgan ignore them? I would think if the primary producers stop mining when the price to produce costs more than the market price, the basic metal producers will continue mining and supply the demand and the price will not necessarily bounce up. In theory, the primary producers could just go out of business and silver demand could still be filled by the basic metal producers who produce silver as a byproduct.
CFS says:
The supply-demand situation is already out of balance, with supply less than demand, and yet the price drops.
Manipulation is occurring and you need to understand that fully to be able to know price timelines.
Skeeta says:
Really enjoyed segments 2 & 3 with Chris Temple today.
CFS says:
This is good advice from Mr. Moriarty.
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/moriarty/moriarty092814.html
It is difficult to know when the price of Silver and gold will rise in a general permanent new trend.
I believe they will rise due to lack of available physical supply.
I suspect China or Russia or their proxies may be using the paper markets to suppress the prices during this period when they are accumulating all the physical gold, platinum, palladium and silver that they can.
It would appear that platinum or silver will run low on supply first, but even lack of current supply may not trigger a price rise until all ETFs and Funds that allow conversion of paper into physical have also been fully raided of physical holdings. This was happening in Gold and appears currently to be happening in silver.
I have a belief that when the Comex or the LBMA runs out of physical the default due to naked shorters not being able to deliver will NOT immediately cause a price rise; neither will it cause the naked shorters to suffer any major penalty, because they will be required to settle in cash at the lower prices they have caused by their naked shorting.
Thus it appears to be a no-lose situation for someone wishing to acquire physical metal cheaply.
Oversight and lacking enforcement of rules about naked shorting seems to me pathetically misguided and a total failure of the system.
I was disgusted at the concept of too big to fail for banks at the time of the Lehman collapse, but lack of foresight as to the consequences of what is currently happening is truly a contemptible failure of government.
CFS says:
Latest David Morgan (Sept 26)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DBhXysPm6Eo
CFS says:
Mark Faber on bitcoin, gold…(Sept 27)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QQDZdYg_CXc
Chips Rankin says:
Re. Conventional Market: If our experts wouldn’t mind decoding the following remark by the illustrious Larry Summers, I’d appreciate it: “There is no question that assets are MORE FULLY PRICED than 18 months ago.” … Heh, talk about your carefully crafted words! What if he would’ve said assets are OVERVALUED?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102021883
Dick Tracy says:
Bird, you said you were in favor of men having more then one wife but what if you’re wife decided you weren’t enough for her and she took another husband, and after that another one. I wonder just how liberal you really are and does she read your posts.
Dick Tracy says:
To quote Bird, “nothing at all wrong with more than one wife”, I don’t buy the argument that marrying your deceased brother’s wife as you say is okay because it could solve a serious problem. Anyone who is concerned about his brothers children’s welfare would support his wife and her children out of the goodness in his heart. We know what’s going on here.
Birdman says:
It only seems strange sitting in front of at a computer in Toronto. The world is a pretty varied place though and what is strange there can be normal elsewhere so try not to be too judgmental because some things are culturally acceptable in other places. Nobody blinks an eye about children working here for example. They all do if their parents are not wealthy. It is normal and yet a Western would accuse “child labour” like its a crime when in fact it is rather ordinary and accepted in poorer countries.
Tom says:
Its amazing how money changes society isn’t it.
Birdman says:
Everyone cannot be rich Tom. What allows the good lifestyles of the West is a burden carried by the two billion people on the planet earning a dollar or two daily. Those are who subsidize Western living standards. Bringing economic equity to the globe though means a steep decline in the wealth you currently enjoy.
Matthew says:
Productivity changes society. Money is a tool. Productivity can be amazing, but the prosperity that follows shouldn’t be.
Dick Tracy says:
I don’t think I was being judgmental, the point I was interested in is are you comfortable with your wife having two husbands. I don’t like double standards. What’s good for the goose………..!
Birdman says:
Yeah, good point. I would not put up with it.
Steven says:
What allows the good lifestyles of the West is a burden carried by the two billion people on the planet earning a dollar or two daily.
Nonsense! When I had a job and pretended to live in Canada nobody subsidized my lifestyle. Employers pretended to pay me a living wage as they saw it and I found a way to pretend to live in Canada. Now I have no job and live in my car. Ontario pays me $250 a month which is their attempt to pretend to pay me. If I tried to rent a place to live with out having a job they would kick in $380 a month extra which rents nothing. Thanks to the real estate market all that is paid by work or welfare means nothing and is 40 years out of date. Canada is a doctor and lawyer country.
Birdman says:
Sorry to hear about your bad luck Steven. There is inequity in developed countries too. There is at least a social safety net. Over here if you fall between the cracks your only options are begging, crime or worse.
Women in poor circumstances and no family support often resort to prostitution to survive but the outcome is often death as HIV was reported to be present in 100% of the gals tested in one region of the capital.
There are not cars here to live in for free incidentally. Few can afford such a luxury. There are not welfare checks either and there is no free medical services or medications.
You also won’t find any food banks, libraries or drop in centers. Pensions are extremely rare and there certainly isn’t subsidize housing, bus passes for the poor or shelter in any storm. Because so many are poor there are no handouts. Beggars are rudely and roughly kicked out of public waiting spaces or idle chairs in street cafe’s.
You got a tough break Steven but with your attitude and all the benefits that I know accrue to those in your circumstances in Canada an entitled guy like you would end up in a gutter here and another poor guy would be stealing your shoes as you slept. Africa is no place for crybabies.
Why don’t you write a letter to the Prime Minister and see if he is sympathetic.
Birdman says:
Your post really irritated me by the way, Steven. Welfare with a rent subsidy comes to 630 in Ontario according to you. Add in medical, eyeglasses, prescriptions etc which is free under those circumstances plus the host of benefits outlined above including supplementary food and clothing vouchers plus food bank supports and your real income would easily exceed 1500 dollars per month (if you are not seriously sick).
Near me there are a a dozen new factories making clothes, shoes and electrical components destined for Western markets. Starting salaries are roughly 40 dollars per month (per MONTH!) and those jobs are only available to those with grade 12 plus a certificate in their trade of choice. I am talking factory work here. There is competition for those jobs. Daily lineups in fact. There are zero benefits except for a free lunch and transport to the factory gates. A skilled machinist makes just over 100 dollars monthly. I know one personally. He was trained in Russia and speaks perfectly fluent English. His skills include working on precision arms. That guy gets close to 200 bucks but he trains the incoming workers and he supports a large family on that income. Now do you understand how developing countries subsidize your life so you can get great shoes and jeans at discount prices?
Birdman says:
I only have one wife. She does indeed read my posts (and she cannot stand Matthew anymore!)
Matthew says:
I am honored. Bird’s of a feather…
Birdman says:
She is the one who named you the “copy and paste boy” because you never say anything original. You just copy and paste other peoples stuff (which is kind of boring to most people).
Matthew says:
Evidence of inconsistency and cluelessness in any form is annoying to people like you who tell tall tales about their own greatness. You are very lucky to have found your equal.
Birdman says:
She made me a four cheese lasagne last night for dinner. How about your wife?
Birdman says:
Polygamy is a common theme in the Old Testament.
Dick Tracy says:
Bird, I’m not trying to get on your case but people who use selective parts of the bible to support their theories, that is using manipulation, it’s like me saying ” Thou shalt not covet thy brother’s wife.”
Birdman says:
OK. I don’t mind really. I was only pointing out that attitudes have changed over time. If something was considered normal in a different time there must have been a good reason. The best explanation I have heard is that men were much fewer in number than women due to all the wars and high mortality rates from battles. It makes sense from that perspective that some households would have one male and more than one wife. What were the women to do anyway if they outnumbered husbands two to one? You can appreciate that maybe those societies found a solution that was acceptable to all. It would not make sense in today’s world although Muslims can and do take more than one wife.
Ynlop Ob says:
But but but but.. Bo Polny said gold to 2000$ by the end of 2014!!!
I took out a mortgage on my house to buy all this gold that is in my kitchen now…. SHIIIT!!
sally says:
Chris. please get up to snuff India imports as much gold as China, maybe more.
J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:
good one sally……….thanks………..
sally says:
Bob, did you see Foleys head on his back… it sure as heck looked real to me along with ALL the heads on fences when you find the videos. Your other commentary I concur with.
sally says:
very fine understanding Bob
Thank you
Bob Moriarty says:
Governments have been lying us into wars for centuries. Ignoring what they say and trying to determine what they are really after works pretty well for me. I don’t see ISIS as being anything more than more nutcase religious fruitcakes. We keep insisting on swatting hornet’s nests and keep being surprised they hornets get pissed when you do.
Our problem in the Middle East is our entirely one-sided support of Israel. If we let the Middle East alone to sort out the Middle East, people would soon get along. It’s fiction to believe there has been 2000 years of conflict. There is conflict only when someone starts swatting the hornets. The conflict exists because the US is involved. We should have left the area alone many years ago.
This latest insanity will not end well. Iran, China, and Russia have drawn lines in the sand. Perhaps Obama is smarter than he looks and just wants to start WW III to get attention away from his abysmal economic policies. In any case, you reap what you sow.
irishtony says:
BOB…….Very well said…….I have been saying to people for years….Let the middle east sort out their own problems….Its my opinion that if The state of Israel did not exist…(they are the odd man out in that region ) then the US & UK would not have so much interest there……apart from the oil , but there again that issue could be sorted out without war….Look at Saudi & the surrounding countries……
Its all about protection the home state of the people who run the US & UK.
irishtony says:
I would just like to say to all the people on the weekend show…Guest & Bloggers..
Thank You all for a great show………& a “HUGE THANK YOU TO OUR HOST…AL”
Steven says:
When something or someone is acting crazy or is going to hang themselves it is best to step back a bit and guard your life and assets for safety sake.
Dick Tracy says:
Unfortunately, The Canadian Government hasn’t been interested in finding The Franklin until now and the reason is they want to take this to The World Court to help establish their credibility over the Artic. The Franklin is a British ship but The Brits gave Canada the rights to it a number of years ago, do you see how the Anglo’s feather their nest. Just saying!
Dick Tracy says:
America would not be a nasty old man on life support if they would only go back to their past when Calvin Coolidge or Dwight Eisenhower were Presidents. The example is there but you must be able to change.
Dick Tracy says:
The biggest part of that example is bring the troops home and let business be America’s business.
Dick Tracy says:
Really who wants all these convoluted foreign wars, that is insanity and contradictory to the way that life should be. Let the free market decide who is right by the way they are able to provide for their citizens.
Dick Tracy says:
Ron Paul and Bob Moriarty see America’s problems for what they are but people like CFS and I must lump you in on this Al, don’t understand that America is it’s own worst enemy, they have created the environment we now live in and are told to expect.
Matthew says:
Interesting:
http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2014/09/a-few-silver-related-graphs-.html#more
Matthew says:
Gold hedging is bullishly low.
http://www.acting-man.com/blog/media/2014/09/4-Gold-CoT.png
Matthew says:
Sentiment is extremely bullish.
http://www.acting-man.com/blog/media/2014/09/2-Stock-and-Sector-Sentiment.png
Birdman says:
For Heavy Hitter: Just a thought for the day from Matthew 6: 19-24…. sometimes we should set aside our differences over gold and recall our higher purpose which is greater than just the pursuit of glory and riches.
—————
Do not store up for yourselves treasures on earth, where moth and rust destroy, and where thieves break in and steal. But store up for yourselves treasures in heaven, where neither moth nor rust destroys, and where thieves do not break in or steal; for where your treasure is, there your heart will be also.
The eye is the lamp of the body; so then if your eye is clear, your whole body will be full of light. But if your eye is bad, your whole body will be full of darkness. If then the light that is in you is darkness, how great is the darkness!
No one can serve two masters; for either he will hate the one and love the other, or he will be devoted to one and despise the other.
You cannot serve God and wealth.
Steven says:
Serve God and let wealth serve you.
CFS says:
Dan Norcini still bearish:
http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/
CFS says:
Heading Suspect Attended Same Mosque As 9/11 Terrorist
Alton Nolen, the man who beheaded one woman and severely injured another at Vaughan Foods in Moore, Oklahoma, was apparently a radicalized Muslim. Nolen attended the same mosque as Zacarias Moussaoui, a man convicted in federal court of conspiring to kill U.S. citizens as part of the September 11 attacks.
May not have been directed by someone in the middle east, but clearly affected by ISIL beheadings!
CFS says:
latest news on ISIL out of the UK:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2772932/RAF-jets-make-three-raids-jihadis-haven-t-dropped-bombs-Defence-chiefs-insist-missions-invaluable-gathering-intelligence-ISIS.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490
CFS says:
ISIL fighters reported within 2 miles of Bagdad outskirts.
Silverbug Dave says:
I think that Cory made some excellent comments on the Scottiah Independence vote. That is the most astute commentary I have heard on the subject, ever – and I lived in Aberdeen Scotland in 1988-1989 when the secessionist movement was really taking off as Mrs. Thatcher was allmost universally hated up there and all English were under suspicion as being Thatcher fans! As soon as I opened my mouth and spoke someone would say i na certain tone, “You’re ENGLISH, aren’t you?” I actually loved my year up in Aberdeen and found the people actually very friendly and just treated all this as a bit of fun. My landlady was actually the handful of Scottish tories and she said manh of her countrymen were ‘whingers’. The big Scottish Nationist Party slogan was ‘Independence in Europe’ even then, which is of course a total oxymoron! Cory was 100% right in everything he said, not 51% or 66% or 75% or even 90% or even 99%!
Silverbug Dave says:
The S&P500 has outperformed gold by 2.7x and outperformed silver by 4.5x. ut another way gold has fallen 64% vs he S&P and silver has fallen 78%, nearly 80.
This illustrates the correct punishment for being a goldbug who stashes his gold in the ground and does not invest in ventures.
Even Rickards has backpeddled a lot now, stating how he has always said put 10% in gold and no more basically. I don’t recall his making a point of that a couple of years back, when he was touting his $7000 target for gold.
In terms of fundamentals, I think they have already shifted a long way against the precious metals and gold and silver bugs have just ignored this to their cost.
we have only had a little price inflation and no ecxpectation of a large rise in the enar future, potential demand destruction for all commodities as the whole world is really on the edges of recession, the Eurozone is a basket case when of course the gold bull market coincided with the rise of the Euro as potential alternative reserve currency between 1999 and 2008, as gold quadrupled during that time. We have had no new oil high since 2008 so how can we justify that gold is stil above its 2008 high and nearly doubled it at one point? Systemic risk might justify gold above its 2008 high but other commodities inclusing silver are nw below it, despite silver’s previously running to 2.5x its 2008 high by 2011. That is proof enough that silver was simply a bubble.
Then on top of that you have an uncompleted US dollar bull market, other currencies collapsing (the Yen) which have recently favoured the USD and not gold, the BRICS looking more like a house built on sand, a relentless increase in US domestic oil and gas production, a new technology boom in the USA and consequently I feel the geopolitical power has been recently moving back with the USA after years of decline in 2000-2010.
A lot of fundamtnals are going to have to turn to get gold back above $1920 to a new high!
To Dave M: Why buy at $17 if you already have silver that you bought years ago at much under $17? I am waiting until $14 or $12 persoanlly or just forgettting it.
Silverbug Dave says:
Re: The Dave Morgan segment:
Dave Morgan’s power round table was with 4 gold/silverbug extremists in my opinion – not much of a roundtable at all. More like everyone at one end of the table and no-one at the other end, preaching to the choir so to speak.
Whay be considering only primary silver procuers when they are the minority of the market? Base Metal producers are producing 70% of the silver production at about zero (0) cost never mind the 30% of primary producers who might have all in costs of $22. That is simply very bad news indeed for the primary silver producers! In addition, I cannot see why the price can’t go to the cash cost of procuiton rather than the all-in cost. Sme of the bigger primary silver miners produce at cash cost of $6-7, don’t they?
If I had a lot of cash and no silver, I would probably be buying a bit now, because I still believe in doom and gloom and thenend of the stock and credit bubbles eventually. However, as someone with some silver and very little cash, I would not buy any more at any time. Ditto for gold. I am just looking for a rally to dump a bit more that I dumped already nearer the highs.
Example, gold is £750 in GBP Sterling. it used to be under $200, say about 180-190 at the bottom. Even though it topped momentarily at 1170 GBP and spent a year over 1000 GBP, it is still good at 750 GBP as a profit taking opportunity for me.
If I had a lot of cash and no silver, I would personally be buying some now. However as someone with some silver and very little cash, I would not buy any at any time. Ditto for gold.