Weekend Show – Sat 18 Oct, 2014

The State of the Markets

Hour 1: 

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

Hour 2:

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

Hour 1:

Hour 2:


Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

Al KorelinCory FleckDan OliverBrent CookChris TempleGlen Downs
Jeff DeistBo PolnyRichard Postma

  1. On October 18, 2014 at 1:00 am,
    sfc says:
  2. On October 18, 2014 at 2:04 am,
    Vortex says:

    Mr. Bo Polny says that next week the dollar is going down and gold is going up because that’s what the “Charts” and the “Day Count” indicate. The charts and the day count……….OK.

    He has drawn a hard line in the sand with his proprietary analysis and stated flat-out that gold is ready to blast off, with the bottom having already been reached and this was validated by way of the cycles, charts and the day count.

    So this is what the public now values and uses as serious expert content and analysis as it relates to directional analysis of the gold, silver and dollars markets.

    In fairness, I believe that Mr. Polny has every right to state his personal commentary on this subject. This is the market place of free thoughts and opinion here at Big Al’s and Cory’s site.

    My biggest concern now is for those folks who may actually jump-in and put valuable funds at risk in a insanely risky sector, and make actionable investments in the metals and miners based solely on such complete nonsensical hocus pocus.


    • On October 18, 2014 at 3:51 am,
      Bobby says:

      Well said vortex.

      • On October 18, 2014 at 3:36 pm,
        Vortex says:

        Bobby, thank you for the kind words.

    • On October 18, 2014 at 6:12 am,
      Glenfidish says:

      I echo this! Bo May end up being right but vortex is 100% correct, I would caution here.

      • On October 18, 2014 at 3:38 pm,
        Vortex says:


        Caution is an outstanding way to phrase it.

        thank you

    • On October 18, 2014 at 6:12 am,
      Glenfidish says:

      I echo this! Bo May end up being right but vortex is 100% correct, I would caution here.

      • On October 18, 2014 at 1:24 pm,
        Birdman says:

        Bo Polny…….WOW. That was one very weird interview.

        • On October 18, 2014 at 4:18 pm,
          JMiller says:

          He sounded jittery. Unstable.

          • On October 18, 2014 at 6:48 pm,
            Birdman says:

            Like no confidence? Like he did not know what he was talking about? But wait! He is the new voice of gold. The name people keep dropping as if he is the oracle itself. Normally I might laugh at an interview like that. But I just felt bad for all the gold bulls. They have really hit bottom.

    • On October 18, 2014 at 6:28 am,
      J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:

      I agree to some extent with the above…………..But, one must do his own DD., and any investment….must be forward looking and thinking….., and I agree there is a lot of hocus pocus.

      • On October 18, 2014 at 6:36 am,
        Glenfidish says:

        J I guess if Bo nails this the hocus pocus will become an overnight sensation. I can see it on the printing presses, Bo Polny the gold bottom caller. Maybe he ends up being the new jim Sinclair lol. He has a 50% shot with this call. It really can go both ways.

        • On October 18, 2014 at 6:41 am,
          Jay says:

          If you listened to any of his 50% calls for the last 3 months you would have heard the bottom was in every day of September. If you really like you could have paid 5 figures to hear that 😉 nothing but Perma bug imo. Glad I listened to Casey and made 500% on gdx puts instead of buying the dip 60 days in a row lol

          • On October 18, 2014 at 7:20 am,
            J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:

            Casey is forward thinking……………..way forward………good call……………

          • On October 18, 2014 at 9:08 am,
            Lawrence says:

            Doug Casey is a visionary not fortune teller. You will never hear he tell you what price is reached at what time. That is what a true fundamentalist should do.

        • On October 18, 2014 at 7:18 am,
          J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:

          I compare the charts as “signs and wonders”……………time will tell……..j

        • On October 18, 2014 at 9:19 am,
          SD Marc says:

          IT IS ONLY HOCUS POCUS IF IT TURNS OUT TO BE PATENTLY FALSE….place your bets or if you have placed your bets……good luck….and this is coming from an investor that only focused on TBILLS, T BONDS, MUNI-BONDS and CDs……it is what it is..the FED is FORCING us to play games…I cant stand it..but I have one thing going for me…gold and silver have history and our tangible – in ever increasing demand and precious…unlike the dollar. I say I am on the right side of this trade….PM’s ARE NOT HOCUS POCUS..they WILL come to the surface and survive when it is said and done…HOWEVER, Bo Polny predictions could be HOCUS POCUS…we will see…it would real nice…but I am not holding my breath.

          • On October 18, 2014 at 9:27 am,
            Lawrence says:

            Agree 100%

      • On October 18, 2014 at 3:41 pm,
        Vortex says:

        J the long,

        You are very correct! DD is a must with a whole bunch of investment humbleness mixed in for good measure and balance.

        • On October 19, 2014 at 1:30 pm,
          J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:

          ditto on the humbleness……….thanks V……………………………J

      • On October 18, 2014 at 3:49 pm,
        Vortex says:

        J the long,

        DD as you stated is the optimum context with which to operate in the PM sector. I would add in a high degree of humbleness to provide ballast and balance for the rocky ride that is, and that which is sure to come.

        Thank you

    • On October 18, 2014 at 7:22 am,
      Jerry C says:


      Take away a man’s right to give his opinion, and take away a man’s right to listen to that opinion, and you take away man’s rights.

    • On October 18, 2014 at 7:59 am,
      Lawrence says:

      I agree with most of what you said. Only one thing I want to point out, gold sector is very volatile. However, if you hold physical PM it not only is not insanely risky, it is the only asset which does not go to zero. Anything else can go to zero. So I would say gold is insanely safe and gold equity is insanely risky.

      • On October 18, 2014 at 9:22 am,
        SD Marc says:

        Lawrence, well said. I agree. And it aint easy disagreeing with Vortex – he is extremely thoughtful and incredibly articulate!

        • On October 18, 2014 at 10:02 am,
          Lawrence says:

          Marc, I disagree with Vortex on very few topics but I think he means PM equities. So not much disagreement anyway. What I am terrified by PM stocks is truly striking and it has fundamental reasons. I remember when I started gold investment, gold/XAU ratio is ~3.3 and now it is over 16. It means that gold has tripled and miners went down by 40%. This does not make sense if you think about supply demand. If something went up so much it means that it was in short supply the guys mining it should make a killing. However, the price has always been kept on a level that miners barely survive. Gold production has not increased for the last 10 years. I am not happy about these people are forcing us to play their game as you said. I left a regime which was doing exactly the same and hoped I get more freedom.

          • On October 18, 2014 at 4:13 pm,
            Vortex says:

            Lawrence and Mark, I wanted to reply to you both in this one snippet and thanks for the well reasoned thoughts.

            Guys you both make salient points and you are correct on the “insanely risky” aspect of my comments.

            I find physical gold & silver to be the grandest and most prudent of life insurance policies in a world of unquantifiable risks, fabrications in an Orwellian sense. The asymmetrical dogfight cloaking the monetary world today requires a high degree of questioning and ingrained skepticism.

            You both were correct in making the distinction concerning the phyz and miners risk profile. I do find the “mining equities” specifically to be the insanely risky aspect of the “high beta” investment curve, but very worthy of investment dollars at the right time of the cycle and directional trend.

            My personal physical stash is my nuclear blast door option for the transitional phase safe harbor to the next monetary construct which is probably no more than five years out.

            Thanks for the opportunity to provide clarity to this highly charged subject.

    • On October 18, 2014 at 6:56 pm,
      gary says:

      This is the same guy that predicted 2000 gold by the end of the year and he’s been trying to call one line in the sand after another multiple times over the last year.

      It seems like Bo just tells gold bugs what they want to hear. Did any one really take this guy seriously on the gold to $2000 call???

      Why would someone even make a call like that other than pure sensationalism?

  3. On October 18, 2014 at 3:26 am,
    Birdman says:

    On October 17, 2014 at 4:22 pm,
    Gary says:

    “This hard of a decline will very likely need a retest before it can get serious upside traction. But we are putting in an intermediate bottom.”

    Great comment Gary. I thought it was so good it was worth repeating because indeed I do agree. My belief if that US equities (S&P) will rally now and exceed their past highs into the end of October or early November but that we will retest the current lows before the year is out. A very nice double bottom will then be in play and will launch equity markets much higher in the New Year. That is my prediction anyway and it is how I will play the volatility in coming weeks until the the year is out.

    • On October 18, 2014 at 6:21 am,
      Glenfidish says:

      I gotta tell you, you and gary are putting yourselves out there. What would make your views change on equities market? At what point would you consider a much larger correction if any?

      • On October 18, 2014 at 7:09 am,
        Jay says:

        Liking it bird 😉 if this does pan out to be a megaphone top for the sm s we could even have a “scarier” low for a retest before higher highs next year. Potential to make lots a $$$

      • On October 18, 2014 at 7:26 am,
        Birdman says:

        Got to call it like I see it Glen. I am looking for a rise first and then a retest. That is basically what Gary has said as well. We don’t know the future of course but it is my firm belief this market (US equities) will regain their legs in the New Year. I am not the slightest bit put off by these recent declines. I have a very high degree of confidence this is just a minor and long overdue corrective phase that is an opportunity to get back in at better prices. There is a mountain of money coming from both Europe and Japan that will ensure the life of this market for a long time yet.

  4. On October 18, 2014 at 4:14 am,
    Chips Rankin says:

    Question for Matthew re. Bo Polny’s call…

    This being a continuation of our brief discussion touching on Fibonacci sequence, Polny mentions the number 21 in his counts. Noting that the number 21 is the ninth figure in the Fibonacci sequence, does this lend any credence to his projections?

    Note: I understand that INTERPOLATION is an estimate of a value within two known values in a sequence of values. It’s been a long time, but back in late 80’s I used the formula to estimate material costs for print jobs at a decal manufacturing plant. Our customers included Chrysler and Caterpillar…

    Is that all he is doing?

    Because if that’s the case (and he turns out to be right), After all these years (I’m in my mid 50’s) I’m going back to math class.

    • On October 18, 2014 at 11:12 am,
      Matthew says:

      Chips, I don’t know specifically what Bo looks at, but I am more than satisfied that cycles are everywhere and that understanding them is very valuable. It’s not the cycles themselves or the information that they contain that is flawed in any way. It’s the interpretation or methods of application of the information that can never be perfect. The same goes for the rest of the technical analysts and chartists —that is, their abilities fall in a broad range from poor to excellent.

      I happen to agree with Bo that gold will finish next week higher while the dollar comes under more selling pressure, but for different reasons, no doubt. The metals and miners are on daily buy signals and are just coming off of extremely oversold readings (particularly for silver, which has probably never been so oversold), so I have to wonder why Doc, Glennfidish, and others are so reluctant to turn bullish. I could be the one that’s wrong here, but I consider it very bullish that so few good observers seem positive about the prospects for the sector right now.
      To avoid any confusion, I should point out that most of the recent buying that I mentioned I was doing recently happened before my buy signals. When buying bigger, longer-term core positions, I buy weakness into the lows. For smaller trading positions, I am much more mechanical and follow the signals on the x-minute to daily charts.

      • On October 19, 2014 at 7:55 am,
        Glenfidish says:


        Your strategy is definitely a winner in my books. I like your style. I don’t differ much from you except when it comes to timing. In the end you either catch the bottom and I miss out or my greed/appetite for cheaper prices comes to fruition. Doc is along the same view. At this point the indicators I follow say oversold but it can be a trap as miners have not responded to gold price appreciation. Something just doesn’t smell right with me. Consider we have fomc and elections, we may have one more dip as gary says before some type of longer then cat bounce turn.

        • On October 19, 2014 at 11:48 am,
          Matthew says:

          Glen, the fact that the miners (and silver) have lagged gold recently would usually cause me some concern, but not this time. To me, this bearish looking action is really neutral to bullish when we consider it against the action in conventional stocks. GDXJ is currently up almost 7% from its October 8th low while the S&P 500 is down 2% from its October 8th low. GDXJ had been up as much as 14.5% off its low while the S&P had been down as much as 5.5% from their respective Oct. 8th lows. Stated another way, GDXJ:$SPX is up 11.5%(!) from its 10/8 low. For comparison, gold is up 2.75% from its Oct. 8th low and 4.65% from its Oct. 6th low at 1183.
          I think that the Fed meeting will bring pressure on gold starting on the 27th or 28th and that gold and the miners won’t be a concern around the election as long as stocks are going up —and I think they will be.

    • On October 18, 2014 at 11:22 am,
      Matthew says:

      On Friday the 10th, Chris asked if I had any targets for the coming week and I said:
      “I think gold will finish next week higher. The picture is quietly getting better. …I don’t have targets for next week’s close, but I think resistance in the 1240 area will be tested.”

      That’s what ended up happening. For next week, I think that gold will take a run at 1265 – 1270 with the potential for a short-squeeze that could result in a move to 1285-1300.

      • On October 18, 2014 at 1:48 pm,
        Birdman says:

        So I guess 1550 is off the table now? Only 75 days to go to year end! 😉 😉

      • On October 19, 2014 at 4:53 am,
        Chips Rankin says:

        I’ll keep plodding away then. With everyday comes new information/intelligence in this wacky world of metals and markets. Regards my own charting prowess, practice makes improvement. Nothing is perfect! And, if nothing else, watching the price action will be entertaining; especially considering the back and forth here on this forum 😉

        • On October 19, 2014 at 8:57 am,
          Big Al says:

          I find the “back and forth” to be fascinating Chips!

  5. On October 18, 2014 at 5:55 am,
    James (the lesser) says:

    Bo is 100% correct!

    Haven’t I been saying for years on this site the principal of ever changes cycles?

    Most people miss the wedding and show up for the funeral.

    I said here on Friday September 19th the bottom was in for gold.
    That has held.

    I said right here due to price, duration and sentiment the bottom was in.

    Gary’s cycles are nonsense flip flops.

    Bo is dead on, as am I.

    I will repeat it again for those who are slow to catch on

    Don’t walk to the window, run and bet with both hands!

    • On October 18, 2014 at 6:20 am,
      J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:

      James…………I think you are more correct, than people give you credit.

    • On October 18, 2014 at 7:12 am,
      Jay says:

      What are you talking about???? Bo has been wrong ALLLLL year. Gary Nailed the bottom in june and cautioned in Aug / sept. I’m glad he flip flopped as you say away from pms in Sept as Bo lost his advice takers FORTUNES

    • On October 18, 2014 at 8:25 am,
      Lawrence says:

      Bo is likely right on trend but wrong on price

  6. On October 18, 2014 at 6:08 am,
    RICHARD says:

    Currently, the charts and the action of the PM stocks are signalling a move down yet for gold to test the lower levels. Bird could be correct about the general direction of the conventional markets but it won’t happen as quickly as he would like for a new high. Personally, I would be very cautious now with both the PM and conventional markets. If gold moves down one more time to test the previous low, it’ll be a great chance to purchase the miners for at least a short term bounce. Gold will have to begin moving down next week if the scenario plays out the way it should.

    • On October 18, 2014 at 6:33 am,
      Glenfidish says:


      So you are basically not in the same camp as Bo Polny. You see it differently. I gotta tell ya times are surely interesting. All this cycle talk has been ramping up from all different kinds of gurus. Somebody is bound to nail it when you have 10 million cycle callers. Here is is one prediction on my side, as far as cycle goes the fed has printed more money “QE” every two years since qe 1. What does that tell us? Qe 4 is expected right about now. And guess what? Many saying it will not happen.. I’ve called for major news after November 4th.

      • On October 18, 2014 at 8:42 am,
        Lawrence says:

        Glen, if we get qe4 before qe3 is done, the situation will be truly grave. Is it so bad that they cannot stop printing frenzy for a few short months? It truly looks like a terminal drug addict. Hope you are wrong.

      • On October 18, 2014 at 7:53 pm,
        RICHARD says:

        Glen, when I look at the directions for markets, I look at multiple charts and scenarios—-I then develop odds for the most likely scenario——I have my own technicals I follow and then throw in some cycle technicals and other technicals for validation. Cycles have value but the variables don’t make them that accurate. They’re of secondary importance for me.

  7. On October 18, 2014 at 7:02 am,
    James (the lesser) says:

    Here is a reprint from a post I posted right here on April 19th 2013

    Make of it what you will…

    It was the best of times, it was the worst of times…

    One thing is obvious, there is no shortage of opinions these days, mostly contrary at that.
    Who do you believe? Who do you back?
    Some are of the opinion you need to gather as much information as you can and act quickly. I have found the opposite to be true.

    I think we are all in agreement that this week has been one for the books. The breathtaking, sudden, devastating panic that hit the gold market this Friday and Monday have left many critically wounded and others on life support. At best you are crushed, depressed, desperate and confused. So what do you do now? I will reiterate what I said earlier, sometimes the best thing to do is nothing, as hard as that is.

    The so called experts are out in full force, either gloating, scare mongering or excusing.
    The experts who missed the big move are gleeful. The ones who called it are hoping for a turn around. The reasons for the crash are as many as the experts espousing them.
    I made up my mind many years ago to ignore the pundits and stick to my guns. As a professional handicapper I found the only way to succeed was to do you’re own thing and go against the crowd. The crowd is always wrong. The crowd misses the wedding and shows up for the funeral.

    So is this a funeral?

    Only time will tell – not the “experts”

    Many of you know I have been all in big since the beginning, so if it is a funeral it is my own!

    Some say the “fundamentals” haven’t changed at all. I find this statement shocking. Everything has changed. The most fundamental of fundamentals is price. Nothing else matters. Price dictates. No value, no bet.

    So is it time to step up and bet? Time to send it in?

    I think we need to examine the last year and a half. In brief – It was clear after the Sept 2011 highs gold has struggled in the face of what appears to be an overwhelmingly bullish environment. Massive liquidity, QE, sovereign debt, central bank buying…but nevertheless gold was dead on the board. A racetrack term describing a situation where a horse appears to have overwhelming credentials based on the “fundamentals” (speed, class, condition…) and yet it is not being bet, the insiders knowing better. Looks like the same for gold this last year and a half. You could say gold was not reacting to bullish data points, this is the way the stocks speculators would put it, same difference.

    So this is the first piece of the puzzle, the long slow grind down and then the second piece, the rapid final sell off this week. Was it the final capitulation of frustrated gold longs, was it purely technical. I believe both.

    So again what do we do now?

    I have decided to do nothing at the very least until Monday. I do not need to catch the absolute bottom. I do not need to rush in now in panic buying.

    Most of this move, down and up is emotional. Emotions play a huge part. If you are like most on Friday you were shell shot, on Monday you were devastated, as the week went on you started to feel a little better as the bleeding at least subsided. Don’t be fooled. You are still emotionally wrung out. That is why I am using this weekend to take a step back, relax and recover. Form a game plan over the weekend. Decide from strength.

    Are we at or near a bottom? $1320 held nicely, however if the proverbially sell in may hits the stock market it could take gold down a couple of hundred bucks more. Are we to believe that the masses (who are always wrong) that are going out and buying gold now are right. Weren’t these the same ones who were wrong on the way up? People buying jewelry for their daughters at bargain prices is not going to take this market back up to $1600,$1700,$1800 or $1900.

    Then again it could be the buy of the century! I urge everyone to take a good long look at the 1970s charts. During that period there were two great bull markets with a year and a half bear market correction in between. Looks very similar! History repeats!

    Right now it is the classic what have you done for me lately. Many people threw in the towel and jumped off the bandwagon.

    In the spring of 1995 the thoroughbred race horse Thunder Gulch went into the Kentucky Derby at odds of 25 to 1. Just a few weeks earlier he was the favorite to win the race. But he lost his last prep race before the big race. His fans abandoned him and jumped off the bandwagon. But what many people didn’t realize was that three year old in the spring can be quirky. Very often they take two steps forward and one step back. What else they didn’t connect was that his last prep race was not the goal. The Kentucky Derby was the goal!
    I stayed the course, stuck to my convictions and made many thousands of dollars going against the crowd. Remember maybe $1900 isn’t the goal. Maybe $5000 is the goal.

    You say what do retired race horse have to do with gold. Everything. It is all a market played out by humans with flawed thinking and emotions attempting the same goal, winning.

    Doesn’t matter if it horses, stocks, gold, craps…if you think I am wrong you can keep your opinion.

    If you are confused right now and don’t have a strong conviction, do nothing.
    Remember no edge, no bet.

    Don’t try to pick the bottom. Possession right now might be more important than price!
    If you are already all in hang in there. You’ve already endured most of the pain.

    Weeping may endure for a night, but joy cometh in the morning!

    • On October 18, 2014 at 8:23 am,
      CFS says:

      It seems to me the “experts” orpundits have a problem.

      They fail to state their inherent assumptions……

      All seem to make the assumption, regardles of whether their analysis is via Technical Analysis or Cycle Theory or even tea leaves hypotheses, that the Gold/Stock/ Dow/whatever market is obeying some random free market theory.

      The Gold Price is manipulated.

      The stockmarket Indices are fixed at certain times.
      The tape is often painted.


      I have been trying to use statistical analysis to evaluate when the market is being manip[ulated. The conclusion, so far, is that it happens quite often and has been happening for longer than I thought……decades.

      • On October 18, 2014 at 12:07 pm,
        J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:

        good point …CFS……..since, you are sharper than the average……how, long do you think it is going to take average and below average sheeple , to come to the same conclusion……?

  8. On October 18, 2014 at 7:29 am,
    cecilhenry says:

    If you;re going to predict, predict often.

    I would not pay much attention to Bo’s or any other predictions. They have been remarkably ….. unhelpful.

    I ask, what’s the benefit and interest in MAKING these predictions?? Caveat emptor.

    • On October 18, 2014 at 9:31 am,
      sfc says:

      Not trying to be rude but the benefit and interest of making these predictions is to benefit the predictor.

      Not trying to offend anyone but the reality anyone who can predict the market with any degree of certainty does not need to sell advice.

      • On October 18, 2014 at 9:47 am,
        cecilhenry says:


      • On October 18, 2014 at 10:33 am,
        Matthew says:

        I disagree with your reasoning. Countless millionaires and billionaire don’t NEED to do anything, but they do what they do anyway.

      • On October 18, 2014 at 10:34 pm,
        Big Al says:

        I have read every comment to this point. Some really good dialog so far along with some interesting “truths”!

        Yours is right up there sfc1

  9. On October 18, 2014 at 7:40 am,
    Simon says:


    I’ve been a long term listener but this is my first post. I found the Bo Polny segment particularly difficult to listen to, did he struggle to multiply 3 * 21 or did i miss something here. Anyway I don’t think anyone needs to be putting large amounts of capital into the PM market based on his commentary.


    • On October 18, 2014 at 10:36 pm,
      Big Al says:

      I doubt that any of our family would! Too many independent thinkers here.

      By the way, a sincere welcome to you Simon!

  10. On October 18, 2014 at 7:40 am,
    bj says:

    The independent voters that allow themselves to be pinged and ponged between the Ds and Rs are truly the ones throwing away their votes. If you don’t vote for what you believe instead of the least of the worst,you are in fact throwing away your vote.

    If people had voted for who they believed best represented their aspirationss instead of buying into the party line from the Ds , Rs and their shills in the mainstream media that Ross Perot couldn’t win, then as per exit polling, Ross Perot would’ve won the presedency and this absolute mess in our global and domestic economies, as it is today, would’ve never happened.

    • On October 18, 2014 at 10:37 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Great point bj!

  11. On October 18, 2014 at 7:47 am,
    Dick Tracy says:

    The stock market is honeycombed with speculative credit and is now breaking under the weight of all that worthless tissue paper they call The US dollar. You don’t have to be a Harvard man to see what is really going down.

    • On October 18, 2014 at 9:28 am,
      SD Marc says:

      Right on again..my friend. Heck, it this keeps up I might have to track you down…and buy you a steak dinner and a beautiful martini to match it!…Haha…

    • On October 18, 2014 at 12:09 pm,
      J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:

      DT………who ever said a Harvard man was that sharp……

      • On October 18, 2014 at 2:27 pm,
        Dick Tracy says:

        Jerry, I said that tongue in cheek, I could have picked Columbia but you know where that takes us.

        • On October 18, 2014 at 2:54 pm,
          J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:

          DT……..got ya

          • On October 18, 2014 at 2:55 pm,
            J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:

            OR,,I know what you mean……..j

  12. On October 18, 2014 at 8:04 am,
    bj says:

    Re: Bo Polny segment: “Cycles” sound a lot like Elliot Wave Theory–and more than one pundit out here has eaten crow based on those cycles and waves.

  13. On October 18, 2014 at 8:22 am,
    Lawrence says:

    Anyone who relies on crystal ball to predict the future will end up eating the broken glass. It does look like the worst is over. The fall since oct 2012 is artificial anyway, it is achieved by dumping CB and ETF gold on the market as well as paper contracts. It is totally against what gold should do under heavy money printing. Gary said that there is no such thing as triple bottom and it happened. Is it possible that the buyer under 1180 is sovereign in nature?

    • On October 18, 2014 at 7:11 pm,
      gary says:

      I wouldn’t be so sure that the bottom has held. It didn’t for silver, platinum and miners. They all made lower lows below the 2013 bottom. On Friday the HUI again closed below the Dec. 2013 low. Not a positive signal.

      I’m expecting a marginal break of 1179 on or around the next FOMC meeting followed by another very convincing intermediate degree counter trend rally that might even make it back to the 200 DMA for a final kiss goodbye before following the CRB down into it’s three year cycle low next summer.

      That’s the spot where gold bugs need to buy and buy big. They just need to have the patience to wait a few months for the setup to arrive.

      • On October 18, 2014 at 11:01 pm,
        Skeeta says:

        They might need to wait 9 months to a year imo Gary.

      • On October 19, 2014 at 8:16 am,
        Glenfidish says:


        Is it not possible for gold to rally higher into first quarter 2015 and then begin trend lower with crb three year low into summer or fall but bottom out at higher prices? I mean is there a rule that states we must go down with crb to test 1000 or birds 968? I’m more inclined to believe we correct from much higher prices. I think Matt was of the same thinking if I’m correct.

  14. On October 18, 2014 at 8:30 am,
    Bankster Vigilante says:

    We need to expose this ebola hoax before the psychopaths in the District of Criminals try to force a toxic and perhaps deadly ebola vaccine on us. Ebola is a complete hoax.


    • On October 18, 2014 at 8:34 am,
      Dick Tracy says:

      I think people have been silly, ridiculous and totally uninformed in their reactions to Ebola, but it is a very real threat and one which hasn’t been properly dealt with yet.

    • On October 18, 2014 at 8:46 am,
      Birdman says:

      You actually believe that? People in Africa don’t share your doubts.

      • On October 18, 2014 at 2:29 pm,
        Bankster Vigilante says:

        People in Africa are getting paid to fake ebola infections for the media liars:


        • On October 18, 2014 at 9:35 pm,
          Skeeta says:

          Must be ‘Day Release’ time again at the Funny Farm.

          • On October 18, 2014 at 10:40 pm,
            Big Al says:

            That is great Skeeta!

  15. On October 18, 2014 at 8:32 am,
    Lawrence says:

    Silver short is on historical level and if the longs take any physical delivery the short covering will be a religious experience. The market has never been so unbalanced

    • On October 18, 2014 at 8:37 am,
      cecilhenry says:

      The silver market is supposedly a very small market.

      So with all these shorts why doesn’t someone simply buy a few billion dollars of real silver and dominate the market and drive out the shorts?

      A billion dollars is NOT a lot of money to the big powers out there. Even Eric Sprott alone could probably do just that. So why isn;t it done????

      • On October 18, 2014 at 8:45 am,
        Birdman says:

        Remember the Hunts? That’s why. Even Warren Buffet won’t mess with those guys. Far too dangerous.

        • On October 18, 2014 at 9:02 am,
          Lawrence says:

          Thanks. I put my answer at wrong place. The problem is that what they do if foreign entity is taking delivery? lBMA was reported to have severe delay sometimes over a year. It took sprott long time to get his silver even the price is way higher.

        • On October 18, 2014 at 9:05 am,
          glenfidish says:


          Since your on the same page as gary as far as megaphone pattern and double bottom etc, do you see miners in particular along with gold having an intermediate bottom soon and some type of bounce lasting a few months possibly into next year? or do you see a continous downtrend.

          You are still on the 965/985 train?

          • On October 18, 2014 at 9:53 am,
            Birdman says:

            I can’t comment on megaphones. Sorry. My bottom call on gold remains what it was before. That is 968.00 and no lower. But what happens this month and next with stock markets is another kettle of fish. I have no fear whatsoever that there is much more downside, if any, and in fact anticipate markets will fully recover.

          • On October 18, 2014 at 12:14 pm,
            J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:

            BIRD……………NOT trying to be smart….but, how did you come up with 968…?

          • On October 18, 2014 at 4:39 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Good question, Jerry.

          • On October 18, 2014 at 9:56 pm,
            Skeeta says:

            I think Gary’s call of $1000
            And Birds call of $968
            Will both be too high.

            I think we’ll go low $900’s as a best case scenario….possibly even lower.
            I sure hope it turns out that way.
            It’d cause destruction for many companies, but this is the excess that Brent spoke about today on the program.
            Deflation is everywhere worldwide, commodities will continue to plummet accordingly, just you watch.

            I’ve said before, the bottom will be in when Big Al & Cory wonder why they even bother to produce this show because listener’s are at an ALL TIME LOW.

            Its then you need to step up to the betting window.

            ……not whilst the Bookie is still smirking like he is now.

            But if you bet early, then good luck

  16. On October 18, 2014 at 8:57 am,
    Lawrence says:

    I think you may get a call not to do it if you are a billionaire. So far the short is able to source the physical. But we have to agree the amount of short is an extreme which never happened. They certainly have rules to prevent physical withdraw. But allowing physical price to rise too much above the paper price will signal the end of exchange. but physical price has to rise. Miners cannot survive on this price. There have been several drastic runs by silver which were nothing but dramatic.

    • On October 18, 2014 at 10:06 am,
      Lawrence says:

      this is to answer cecilhenry

  17. On October 18, 2014 at 9:01 am,
    James (the lesser) says:

    Jay Gary nailed the bottom?
    Gary was calling for $1000 gold and then a spectacular rise that was supposed to have already happened. Oh yeah I forgot that was until his cycles changed his mind
    Just more flip flopping shrouded in cycle bs

    • On October 18, 2014 at 9:28 am,
      cecilhenry says:

      Yeah, that’s why it pays to predict often.

      People forget the misses, but when you hit big, they remember that for a long time. And then you can point to it over and over.

      • On October 18, 2014 at 9:33 am,
        SD Marc says:

        That is an EXCELLENT point!

      • On October 18, 2014 at 9:33 am,
        sfc says:

        It seems most predictors give themselves an out in one way or they are changing their advice so often it is worthless.

        • On October 18, 2014 at 11:18 am,
          Birdman says:

          Worthless? Really? Maybe give Gary a little more credit……

          You are saying that a person who makes an attempt to shift with the market offers advice that has no value? Well maybe you need a trip down memory lane to read what others wrote in the past so you can appreciate why Gary should be congratulated, not criticized for adjusting his stance as the market information changed.

          Don’t forget that during the past few years some writers have been utterly fixated on the idea that gold must soar to the stars come hell and high water. They repeat the same repetitive mantras like idiots regardless of what has happened to price and technical’s in the meantime.

          Want proof that the gold story has not varied an inch in the last five years?

          Then read the fascinating link below. It is almost exactly 5 years old today. THAT story is almost the identical GD narrative that we read and hear daily on some sites and those who keep telling it without changing with the times are the ones you should really criticize.

          The Five Reasons Gold Will Hit $5,000 – Money Morning – Dated January 2010
          Read this and then try to tell me anything has really changed in the gold-bug narrative in all of the past years!

          • On October 18, 2014 at 11:52 am,
            Birdman says:

            Honestly….everyone here needs to read that link I posted above. Just so you can see for yourselves what a bore the arguments in favour of gold have become and how mindlessly stupid they start to sound after awhile. It’s just blah, blah, blah, blah chasing your tail around and around like a dog on a short leash.

            Doesn’t anyone here learn anything from all that repetition?

            Can I repeat something that has still not sunk in? Gold has NOT bottomed.

          • On October 18, 2014 at 2:10 pm,
            Birdman says:


            I am guessing you all read that link. Ha Ha Ha!!!!!!

            Crickets……… Crick-crick-crick. Just Crickets.

          • On October 19, 2014 at 8:32 am,
            J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:

            Bird…………I have a question , see above on your call for 968…..thanks j…..

          • On October 19, 2014 at 9:32 am,
            Birdman says:

            I can’t tell you all my secrets, Jerry. But yes, I do have a method and mid 900’s is a fair call for a gold bottom..

          • On October 19, 2014 at 11:46 am,
            J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:

            if YOU do not want to share , what the hell are you doing here………

          • On October 19, 2014 at 2:40 pm,
            Big Al says:

            I find that to be interesting also Jerry, but it really makes no difference to me!

          • On October 19, 2014 at 11:51 am,
            Matthew says:

            Right again Jerry, BS!

          • On October 19, 2014 at 2:41 pm,
            Big Al says:

            Rather than have “bs” in three spots, I cut it down to one.

            Don’t want this to get stupid and out of hand!

          • On October 19, 2014 at 12:15 pm,
            Birdman says:

            Watch and see. My call on silver came within pennies and I made that 15 months before the fact. Can you do better? 😉

          • On October 19, 2014 at 1:32 pm,
            J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:

            15 MONTHS BEFORE THE FACT………when was the fact………APRIL 13,2013

          • On October 19, 2014 at 2:13 pm,
            Birdman says:

            On July 17, 2013 at 8:28 am,
            Bird Man says:

            “You want to have some fun, Mathew? Lets take some bets on a final bottom for gold and silver and see who is right. Here is my numbers: Silver falls to 16.30 and Gold does not bottom until 968.00 Now what have you got? I wager a bottle of wine I come closer than you.”

            OK Jerry? Those were my numbers on July 17th 2013 and I have repeated them many times since in case you were not reading. That is exactly 15 months and four days in the past. And yes I have a method. And no that system is none of your business because you would criticize it anyway.

          • On October 19, 2014 at 2:56 pm,
            Birdman says:

            “Rather than have “bs” in three spots, I cut it down to one.” Al Korelin

            That’s great Al. So if one “BS” is OK then maybe I can slip in a single “Gold-Tards”!
            You know, for good measure. Since if one insult to me is fine I have one of my own to offer back 🙂

          • On October 19, 2014 at 6:53 pm,
            Big Al says:

            Okay, okay and okay!

          • On October 19, 2014 at 3:17 pm,
            J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:


          • On October 19, 2014 at 6:54 pm,
            Big Al says:

            Now common!

          • On October 19, 2014 at 3:30 pm,
            Matthew says:

            What’s funny, Jerry, is that Bird was obnoxiously bearish silver and high as a kite on his own greatness on 7/17/13 —at the low. As you might’ve guessed, he marked a low with his cockiness. Silver was UP 7% in the next 3 trading days and UP 30% in the next 29. He did not indicate that he was turning bullish on that day so it seems safe to say that he gave back at least part of the gains that he was bragging about (if he really had any positions to begin with —he never tells us in advance that he is short or long or anything, for that matter). In the context of that thread, I think it’s safe to say the he was calling for 16.30 sooner rather than 15 months later.

            Birdman says:

            “Silver down as anticipated…..get ready for it……1.4% so far to a low of 19.57

            You want to have some fun, Mathew?

            Lets take some bets on a final bottom for gold and silver and see who is right.
            Here is my numbers: Silver falls to 16.30 and Gold does not bottom until 968.00…”


          • On October 19, 2014 at 3:43 pm,
            J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:

            MAN………….those are some great records…………….

          • On October 19, 2014 at 3:47 pm,
            J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:

            Love the CHARTS…………………

          • On October 19, 2014 at 4:02 pm,
            Birdman says:

            See, there is your reading comprehension problem again. Notice in the linked post I wrote exactly the following “Lets take some bets on a final bottom”…….see that word “final”? Look again. Now back to your readers kids. Hey! Here is one just for laughs.

            The quick Brown Fox jumped over the lazy dog.

          • On October 19, 2014 at 4:39 pm,
            J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:

            What happened did you get tired of BIRD TALES……………

    • On October 18, 2014 at 7:18 pm,
      gary says:

      I still think gold is going to $1000 (or close to it) it’s just taking longer than I thought it would to get there.

      And I did call the intermediate bottom in June almost to the day. Again with everyone bearish at the time i was the only voice calling for a trend reversal.You can find the interview here on June 5th where I said i thought the intermediate bottom was in and that traders could buy and place a stop right below $1240.

  18. On October 18, 2014 at 9:32 am,
    SD Marc says:

    I gotta tell ya…Gary does confuse me A LOT…I would never place bets like a frickin casino…in and out, in and out – Everybody – do a Jesse Livermore..get on the right side of the trade – do WHATVER you have to do to stay solvent – and WAIT…IT….OUT!

    • On October 18, 2014 at 9:45 am,
      Dick Tracy says:

      SD, I believe that you are on the right track and will be rewarded in the future, as for Gary he reminds me of the old Brylcream ad, ” a little dab will do ya”.

      • On October 18, 2014 at 11:21 am,
        Birdman says:

        Sorry Dick, I have to stand up for Gary here. He has done a pretty good job lately. What’s your beef?

        • On October 18, 2014 at 11:54 am,
          Dick Tracy says:

          I don’t think of what I said as having a beef, I am just stating an opinion, not looking for trouble.

  19. On October 18, 2014 at 9:35 am,
    sfc says:

    “Everybody – do a Jesse Livermore…”

    I dunno, didn’t he kill himself?

    • On October 18, 2014 at 11:25 am,
      Matthew says:

      Sit tight and be right… THEN kill yourself 😉

  20. On October 18, 2014 at 9:35 am,
    billy choe says:

    Hi Al and Doc
    about newsletter u guys talking about before when can we subcribe that and how.
    i am listener from south korea. you guys are great!!!

    • On October 18, 2014 at 7:24 pm,
      RICHARD says:

      Billy, it’s progressing—-looking at the first page graphics and format.

    • On October 18, 2014 at 10:45 pm,
      Big Al says:

      I happen to completely agree with a lot of what you say, Bird.

      • On October 19, 2014 at 11:50 am,
        J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:

        Sorry, placed above comment in wrong location………….

      • On October 19, 2014 at 12:19 pm,
        Birdman says:

        Not BS Jerry. I am going to be correct in that call.

        • On October 19, 2014 at 1:36 pm,
          J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:

          My BS COMMENT, WAS directed to you for not wanting to share your hocus pocus 986 number.

        • On October 19, 2014 at 1:37 pm,
          J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:


          • On October 19, 2014 at 3:56 pm,
            RICHARD says:

            J; I hate to blow Bird’s cover but I believe he’s settled on a retracement of 50% which should put him very close to his number. Of course, that’s not a fibonacci retracement. Now, you’ll have to ask Bird why he settled on that number—-did he just pull it out of a hat or does he have some TA he’s using.

          • On October 19, 2014 at 4:17 pm,
            Birdman says:

            Stop it Richard, you are going to blow their minds. Don’t you know they haven’t got calculators? Ha, Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha!!!!!! By the way, it is not an exact 50% retracement. Don’t mes with my system buddy!

          • On October 19, 2014 at 4:23 pm,
            RICHARD says:

            It;s close though. You know; talking about fibonacci retracements, good “ole” James the Lesser may have hit it on the nose when he called an end to the down move in gold. The recent low was right on the bottom for a fibonacci 61.8% retracement that’s used by many technicians. Just saying.

          • On October 19, 2014 at 4:35 pm,
            RICHARD says:

            Sorry; I meant the $38.2 fibonacci retracement.

          • On October 19, 2014 at 4:38 pm,
            Birdman says:

            See you in the home for the aged Richard. We might both be going there together since as you know I call resistance support and support resistance because I am losing it day by day. Ha!

          • On October 19, 2014 at 4:41 pm,
            RICHARD says:

            Our synapses don’t seem to connect as well as they did when we were younger.

          • On October 19, 2014 at 4:48 pm,
            Birdman says:

            Your telling me. What I need is a computer that will do my typing for me because the elbows are getting arthritic. Would that be great. I could just rant at the machine and it would auto-type whatever came to mind. Then I could shout “SEND” and off it would go. Who the hell really needs a keyboard anyway when you already know what you want to say without typing it?

          • On October 19, 2014 at 4:55 pm,
            RICHARD says:

            The problem with that one is they really still haven’t solved the problem with “voice recognition. We’ve used it our business and regret it due to all variable problems resulting in people then having to call in and talk to a human. Of course, personally, I would rather talk to a human anyway.

          • On October 19, 2014 at 7:03 pm,
            Big Al says:

            Common Doc, speak for yourself!

            Just put up a 48 in a bizarre wind! (Hope I added correctly!)

          • On October 19, 2014 at 4:36 pm,
            Birdman says:

            We will see. Only one of us will be right. It cannot hurt to stick your neck out and make a call if you believe it though. Right or wrong, I think we all try our best to navigate the shoals. In my case I am committed to a mid 900’s bottom as a final low and damn the torpedoes!

          • On October 19, 2014 at 5:21 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Oh, now it’s “the mid 900s.” That is a lot different than a precise number like 968. You’ve been clear that it would not be even 965 or 970, but 968. Now it’s “mid 900s?”
            I’ll stick with what I said in December:
            On December 23, 2013 at 9:28 am,
            Matthew says:

            If we see 968, then we will also see 961.85. You’ll see.

          • On October 19, 2014 at 5:35 pm,
            Birdman says:

            The difference is I was serious. You were just joking. Your honest claim is a call on gold to reach 1550 by year end. I guarantee you will be wrong (as usual). Now, on the other hand, if you want to get serious why not post your own bottom call on gold that you have been invited to do many, many times already but have been afraid to do.

            So what is it going to be Matthew? Are you going to risk making a bottom call? Or are you sticking with your ridiculous 1550 claim by December 31st this year?

            Cat got your tongue again? Meow!

          • On October 19, 2014 at 5:42 pm,
            Vortex says:

            Bird, Matthew,

            I guess it really won’t matter in the end because Jim Rickards just announced that the PTB will confiscate all the gold in all G20 nations by 2020.

            It will all be kept off of the markets. And you will finally get your cashless world by choice or force.

            Knowing how sick and deranged most of these so called world leaders are, nothing would surprise me at this point.

            I’m personally looking for another planet to move to.

          • On October 19, 2014 at 6:00 pm,
            Dick Tracy says:

            Why can’t you guys see through Birdman, this guy is a classical looser but he has most of you fooled, except for some shrewd people like Bob M.

          • On October 20, 2014 at 6:20 am,
            Birdman says:

            Again that “looser” word. So apparently you think you have spelled it correctly. Flip open a dictionary, Dick. You can correct yourself I think.

          • On October 20, 2014 at 8:27 am,
            Dick Tracy says:

            I looked up looser in the dictionary and it said ” see Birdman”.

          • On October 20, 2014 at 10:58 am,
            Big Al says:

            Since I think that you meant that humorously, I will assume that you were not be personal!

          • On October 20, 2014 at 12:22 pm,
            Andrew de Berry (Rev) says:

            And me DT!!! And Matthew and HH, only Bob Moriarty wasn’t so polite!!

          • On October 19, 2014 at 6:10 pm,
            RICHARD says:

            Vortex; I would question that only because I don’t know if China and Russia would go along with it.

          • On October 19, 2014 at 6:29 pm,
            Vortex says:

            Hi Doc, I agree to some extent. I didn’t say that I believed it would come to pass, but the sick direction that the world is moving to leads me to think that nothing is off the table for the PTB and their sick lust for total control of their tax subjects.

            Doc I have said numerous times here, I don’t believe they are going to let us reap the benefits of our hard money prudence and wealth preservation tactics. They will change the rules in the middle of the game.

            Doc even you have to admit bringing Rickards out in the open and saying these things has to initiate a major alarm bell going off in your brain. His handlers are starting the propaganda onslaught right now.

            Its as plain as day to this old country boy.

          • On October 19, 2014 at 8:23 pm,
            RICHARD says:

            I’ll say one thing; Rickards is really knowledgeable and I enjoy listening to him. He could be right—–there doesn’t seem to be anyway out.

          • On October 19, 2014 at 7:00 pm,
            Big Al says:

            Hey V, if there is room on the vehicle, Kathy and I are in!

          • On October 19, 2014 at 7:05 pm,
            Vortex says:

            Big Al, theres always room for you and yours!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 😉

          • On October 20, 2014 at 10:45 am,
            Big Al says:

            Many thanks and vica versa!

          • On October 19, 2014 at 10:01 pm,
            Matt says:

            Love to see them try to confiscate the gold in G-20 member Indonesia-any gold.
            Rickards is delusional or paid off-likely both.

          • On October 20, 2014 at 6:18 am,
            Birdman says:

            Thanks Vortex. I will check out Rickards comments. Where did you see them?

          • On October 20, 2014 at 7:19 am,
            Birdman says:

            OK. Found it at Jim Rickards’ Strategic Intelligence. But I am not a subscriber so I cannot read it. The article is not public yet.

          • On October 19, 2014 at 6:39 pm,
            Matthew says:

            I’ve said for over a year that the worst case scenario for gold is about 1155. Even that looks highly unlikely now.

          • On October 19, 2014 at 6:58 pm,
            Big Al says:

            And, I completely agree with YOU Matthew!

          • On October 19, 2014 at 4:31 pm,
            J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:

            I did ask him politely …..in my original comment….which stated ..”.not trying to be smart”(quote)……….which I thought he would respond politely, …..I did not want to assume anything. Everyone that has been around , knows all the ways to come up with a number…………I just wanted to know how he was so sure on 968…………which is just a ….WAG……………..

          • On October 19, 2014 at 6:56 pm,
            Big Al says:

            Doc, are you two in cahoots?

            By the way, I just heard from a neighbor that we have to play Bali High on Tuesday! Since we will all be staying at Mandalay Bay, We might get a deal!

        • On October 19, 2014 at 2:17 pm,
          Birdman says:

          What is your problem? I share enough already. Why don’t you comment on Ebola or US military bases in Africa instead and then in your spare time work on your own gold numbers.

          Or do you just prefer KWN and Bo Polny to do your work for you.

          • On October 19, 2014 at 2:47 pm,
            Big Al says:

            Thank you Matthew, Bird and Jerry for keeping this civil.

            Actually thank you all for making my Sunday a bit more interesting! Now, off to play nine in the rain!

            Now here is the deal: I have a system that is tried and true and I am willing to share it. I need $5K from each of you. And yes, Visa, MC, Amex and Diners are okay. No checks!

          • On October 19, 2014 at 4:14 pm,
            Birdman says:

            You opening a mine, Al!

          • On October 19, 2014 at 2:48 pm,
            Big Al says:

            I don’t know Bird, they have all been accurate in the past. (Damn, now I have to go to the clinic to get my tongue sutured!)

          • On October 19, 2014 at 3:24 pm,
            J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:

            always a side issue………….

          • On October 19, 2014 at 3:45 pm,
            J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:

            comment was for bird……………

        • On October 19, 2014 at 2:43 pm,
          Big Al says:

          All I can say is that maybe yes and maybe no. I don’t agree with you on the sub $1K call, but then again I don’t consider myself to be the prettiest baby in the nursery. I am simply interested, no make that emphatic, about Kathy and I being financially secure!

          • On October 19, 2014 at 6:58 pm,
            Lawrence says:

            Al, I know you rely on fundamentals. Messing around with the price prediction will ruin your reputation. Price prediction is a fool’s game, especially in a manipulated market. They can bring the price to whereever they are willing to in short term. Off course someone could be lucky but it is like winning a lottery.

          • On October 19, 2014 at 6:59 pm,
            Lawrence says:

            Al I also suggest to improve the editor if possible. It is quite easy to put the message at the wrong plae.

          • On October 19, 2014 at 7:00 pm,
            Lawrence says:


          • On October 19, 2014 at 7:04 pm,
            Big Al says:

            I personally don’t want to deal with predictions! Thanks Lawrence!

  21. On October 18, 2014 at 10:14 am,
    stewie says:

    Here is someone that agrees with Bo’s call on dollar call and gold call. If you read it it makes sense too. I want Bo to be right but i don’t see turn happening now. I think Doc will be right that we may get lower low and maybe dramatic turn around from that lower low. I hope i’m wrong.

    The Dollar will be sacrificed and Gold will soar – 10-15-14

    I agree that Gary has missed bottom last year and was calling for $1000 gold in dec of 2013. I remember that like it was yesterday. That doesn’t mean he won’t be right this time. I find Docs calls to be most accurate and Rick is too short term (few days calls.

    With bold calls there will ALWAYS be lots of criticism. Whether it’s right or wrong time will show and everyone should have right to voice their opinion.

    Bo where can i learn the cycles you’re studding. Any book you can recommend?

  22. On October 18, 2014 at 12:12 pm,
    r scott hamilton says:

    I predict that yes, Repubs increase in the us senate. But not by much. I think many racescould be very close . And i hope greg orman does well in Kansas senate race as an independant would be nice to have thier. best of luck to all S

  23. On October 18, 2014 at 12:24 pm,
    Birdman says:

    Segment 4 with Glen Downs:

    He made some interesting observations. The primary one being that it is perceptions shaping the attitudes of the American public and not actual risk. In the case of Ebola I agree with the comments coming from Washington that this is not a huge threat to public safety as it is in the developing world. This goes well beyond the transmisability of the illness or the level of preparedness of medical services. Rather, there are structural reasons in the makeup of the US society and those of most Western nations that inoculates them from risk. These include foremost a tradition of keeping ones space from others and the fact that so many of us live alone. We also work alone. And we drive alone. We shop without the company of others, exercise solitary, even attend church and sit alone on the empty pew in the room. We are a paranoid society perhaps and generally distrustful of one another. In Africa on the other hand there is a much greater sense of physical closeness amongst people. It is a social environment. There is much more hand shaking as one example. Hugging of friends and neighbors and warm greetings are familiar and common. Few people undertake events and functions alone. There are far more people living in a single small building (or even a room sometimes) on average and it is not uncommon to have multiple generations residing in a single home. Risks multiply substantially under such circumstances. Back in the US meanwhile, up to 50% of the population is single. One in seven live alone and these homes represent almost a third of all domiciles. If being away from people offers safety then there is probably not a safer country to live than a developed Western democracy like the US, England, Canada or so many others. So probably we can relax a little more. Wear latex gloves when you are out if you are worried. Stay off public transport and don’t sit next to anyone or get close to strangers……you know…..the regular………just be yourself!!

    • On October 18, 2014 at 12:42 pm,
      Birdman says:

      Note to Glen Downs: You are a smart guy. I can answer the question you posed at 8:30 with a map. Study it for a minute or two and draw your conclusions.

      Graphic of U.S. military bases around the world.

      • On October 19, 2014 at 12:44 am,
        Birdman says:

        Anyone else interested in the question of why US troops are being sent to West Africa to help combat the Ebola spread will no doubt have quickly understood there are other objectives at play.

        At the time of the creation of the map linked above (2011) there was virtually no Army, Navy or Air Force presence in Africa with the exception of a base in Egypt. The American military on the continent is badly under represented at a time when strategic interests have suddenly come to the fore.

        Africom itself has actually been based in Spain for many years now. In 2011 the President has made it a priority to establish bases for strategic interests on the continent itself and some drone airstrips now exist.

        Priorities also exist in East Africa due to its proximity to both the Middle East, Suez, Israel, Somalia and India. It is not therefore a mystery as to why the President has ordered troops to be sent to West Africa during this crisis and those familiar with history will understand that many of the existing bases established by the US were created as the outcomes of wars, civil unrest or other crisis.

        This crisis obviously offers just such and opportunity for key strategic advancement of initiatives that have already been clearly established. If you are interested in more analysis see the link below for a start.

        Africa Command: U.S. Strategic Interests and the Role of the U.S. Military in Africa
        US Navy Library Records

        • On October 19, 2014 at 8:53 am,
          Big Al says:

          Thanks Bird!

      • On October 19, 2014 at 1:14 am,
        Birdman says:

        I will link a second article for those interested. It is helpful in covering the major points and notes how small the current US presence in Africa is but also indicates priorities that have until now been overlooked.

        It is worth pointing out that China has been quite aggressive in establishing a physical presence here such that many believe they are on their way to dominating much of the continent unless offsetting efforts are made.

        Russia meanwhile has in just the past weeks also been making overtures to the continental representatives and their Foreign Minister was in Addis Ababa to speak at the headquarters of the African Union. Unknown to most people there is currently a rush on by both Western and Eastern states to stake a claim to the vast untapped resources on the continent and billions of dollars have been flowing in via state sponsored investment.

        Israel alone has recently committed two billion to agricultural initiatives and mining in Ethiopia. Do not be fooled by what sound like small numbers though. In many cases these billions represent a large fraction of some countries GDP so they are quite significant from that perspective.

        But of critical importance to the US is that fact that is now imports more oil from Africa than it does from the Middle East and there is speculation that massive new finds will soon be discovered. Look at a map of the region and take note the proximity of East and North Africa to Saudi Arabia.

        The geologies in many cases are similar and so it stands to reason that significant new oil discoveries will be made in North Sudan, Ethiopia, Kenya, Djibouti, Eritrea, Somalia and Uganda to compliment those already found in South Sudan.

        This has not been overlooked by anyone at strategic levels and their importance cannot be understated as new oil finds have been declining for some years now. West Africa meanwhile has until now been almost overlooked where strategic advancement is concerned and it is my opinion that this recent Ebola outbreak represents an opportunity to establish a presence on that side of the continent.

        Lets put this another way….the US dominates once it has full fledged bases established. It is just that simple. Review the locations of current bases and you will get a better perspective on that topic. At this time America is represented by as many as 760 Army, Navy and Air Force bases globally but virtually none are in Africa itself.

        The consequences of the U.S. war on terrorism in Africa

        • On October 19, 2014 at 8:56 am,
          Big Al says:

          And, thanks again Bird.

          • On October 19, 2014 at 9:37 am,
            Birdman says:

            You are welcome Al. I thought you guys might find that interesting. Something for the guys to chew on. I would be quite curious to hear Glen Downs thoughts on the subject. i am sure he has insights we are not aware of.

    • On October 18, 2014 at 1:04 pm,
      Dick Tracy says:

      When you contract a disease like Ebola you must be quarantined and that is what makes this particular disease so hideous, it means that if you die you die alone without the love of those who are closest to you.

      • On October 18, 2014 at 1:21 pm,
        Birdman says:

        Yes DT. That is correct. If you contract the illness and it is during an outbreak in your region there is little hope that even the medical community will have resources to help you.

        So your loved ones may shun you too. Your neighbors will recoil in fear. Your wife and children may even flee the family home. We have already been programmed to believe that NOBODY can help. Even fully suited doctors and nurses doing routine care are catching the sickness and winding up dead.

        Are you ready for that? Is any hospital safe?

        During a viral outbreak where do you go if you have been in a car accident? What if you had a heart attack? How about you needed emergency surgery for any of a hundred reasons?

        Could you go to a hospital that was full of Ebola patients? That’s the thing. This one will consume all the beds and all the resources and leave little for all the ordinary daily accidents and problems that all of us cope with. Only an idiot would rush to a hospital or clinic if they knew the waiting room was full of Ebola victims.

        So you get to die alone in other words. Or learn to heal yourself now.

  24. On October 18, 2014 at 2:37 pm,
    Dick Tracy says:

    This is meant as a joke but Jerry, SD, and the others with Al’s birthday coming up on December 1st, do you think we could take up a collection and buy him a membership card in the hair club for men. That would be better then giving him 71 paddywhacks, not that he doesn’t deserve it.

    • On October 18, 2014 at 3:03 pm,
      J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:

      I say we pluck some feathers off BIRD, and give him a head dress…….That way BIRD and Al, can dance around the fire, and beat war drums…………71 times around the fire, and then maybe the bottom will come in……………………

      • On October 18, 2014 at 3:11 pm,
        Dick Tracy says:

        Good idea Jerry, we could play the polka king’s music, Walter Osteneck, he does a great rendition of the bird dance.

        • On October 18, 2014 at 3:19 pm,
          J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:

          DT……sounds good to me………………………….but, I think Al, should hum in the background, and Bird tweet…………..

          • On October 18, 2014 at 5:55 pm,
            franky says:
          • On October 18, 2014 at 6:33 pm,
            Birdman says:

            Ha Ha. I liked that Franky. You ever seen a bird with a beard though?

    • On October 18, 2014 at 10:50 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Hairclub for Men?

      Gotta pass Kathy’s 65th coming uo this Friday!

  25. On October 18, 2014 at 10:52 pm,
    Big Al says:


    We have to get together sometime!

    • On October 18, 2014 at 11:08 pm,
      Skeeta says:

      Thanks again Al & Cory + guests for the weekend show.
      I enjoyed listening to it whilst planting some Vegetables outside today.

      Totally disagree with Bo Polny though….he’s off his rocker with his predictions….he’s just another space cadet on the to da moon bandwagon.

      • On October 19, 2014 at 8:52 am,
        Big Al says:

        Morning Skeeta,

        Just because someone is a guest certainly does not mean that we agree or disagree. (Unless of course we state it!)



  26. On October 19, 2014 at 5:43 am,
    NYC says:

    Hey Bird, glad to have you back 🙂 missed you this week…I think that this crash/correction is not over, nowhere near over… they may take it down starting tonight? My issue is what kind of crash is this? in 2008 it was fear of the financial system so there was a giant move to the USD and liquidate all…Gold was then in a bull market. I don’t think this is that type. I think this one will though not to the degree rhyme with 1987. They are afraid of losses imo. they made huge gains these last few years and want to maintain gains, their jobs and livelihood. I am talking the big money managers and hedge funds . so when the fear comes and last week was nothing, just a small wake-up call and soon I think they will head to the exits en masse. the thing is that gold looked good and went up vs. these small downdrafts. my question is will gold crash up when the spoos crash down? I am thinking so but we still have a date with gold 968 maybe next summer?

    • On October 19, 2014 at 6:36 am,
      Birdman says:

      Hey NYC, good to hear from you too! I had a busy ten days actually.

      I am taking this Ebola thing seriously even though it is thousands of kilometers away. It was actually right on our border during a past outbreak so its no joking matter to me. Distance does not create security for any of us anyway especially as current temperature detection methods are not reliable yet and there are extensive networks of air travel within the African continent.

      An expanding infection rate seems inevitable to me although I don’t have any evidence that we will ever see it here. It is just that the incident rates have been compounding so fast in West Africa and I suspect that even if cases arrive here eventually that the information might be suppressed.

      We have already seen the virus appear in four major African capital cities. That set off my alarm bells so I got busy and we stocked up supplies. Everything we need we bought. I am sure as hell not waiting until after a pandemic arrives to take action.

      For example, we learned that in the afflicted countries you could not even buy hand soaps, latex gloves or a bottle of bleach anywhere once the panic set in. The people, medical services and hospitals just cleaned the shelves bare right down to the last bars of soap and detergent. Even food shelves went bare. Candles, lighters, fuel cylinders; the works. All sold out.

      I guess that is the outcome of fear.

      We saw the same behaviors prior to and following Katrina as the local economy descended into hell and transaction systems went off line. It was cash and barter only which became a nightmare for most folks who ordinarily depend on Visa, Mastercard, Debit and daily cash withdrawals.

      Same thing in the aftermath of the earthquake in Japan. So my first plan was to put aside physical cash. Not gold. Not silver. Not guns or bullets. It always comes down to cash in the end.

      Then we moved on to a case of bleach, carton of candles, face masks, surgical gloves for handling cash when shopping, medical supplies, a big assortment of medications and that sort of thing. It does not matter if I have too much and nothing is ever needed. None of it will go bad anyway even if it takes a few years to consume it all.

      About gold? I wish I could time the bottom but I don’t have that insight just yet. Next year sounds as good a time as any. Perhaps by summer and leading into the September / October period when the real stock market crash comes. I would be in all cash before summer is out or shifting into commodities by then.

      That’s my plan anyway …….. if I survive that long!

      • On October 19, 2014 at 8:33 am,
        Glenfidish says:


        Best wishes for you and your family as well. Thanks for the insights on markets.
        By the way are you saying dow goes up till next year September/October then crash or dow goes higher into New Years and the begins downtrend into September/October and then final wash or crash.

        • On October 19, 2014 at 9:12 am,
          Birdman says:

          Thanks for the well wishes. We appreciate it. Honestly, Ebola is not that big a worry. Perhaps it is just the threat implied that forces some to respond. It is the potential that is the real worry but we shall see how quickly this is brought under control. If I was going to lose sleep though it would be because of tuberculosis which is quite prevalent here. That illness is the number one killer in many African countries these days because it has mutated to become almost completely drug resistant. It ranks ahead of HIV in mortality rates lately.

          About the markets? I have no doubt they will stage a good recovery. We have not seen any major waves up yet nor clear signs of termination but rather just a persistent climb punctuated by the feeblest of corrections.

          There is plenty of money coming Stateside due to problems elsewhere that will determine the lifespan of this bull. It is a market being driven in large part by external cash and capital flows from elsewhere.

          But when it tops….nobody knows. I certainly don’t although I have an inkling we might get our real top late next year. In the meantime I am not concerned in the least about equities moving back up into the New Year.

      • On October 19, 2014 at 9:01 am,
        Big Al says:

        Oh, I would bet that you survive that long.

        So, you are looking for a “meltdown” next year. Am I correct?

        • On October 19, 2014 at 9:22 am,
          Birdman says:

          Yes Al. Crashes seem to be an inevitable part of stock markets that rise too far and too long. I think we have debt shocks that still lie ahead. Certainly if the globe keeps deflating we will see some sovereigns on the ropes as tax revenues will be declining even as debts keep growing. It only takes a few such instances clustered together to start a domino effect. We saw that in the 1930’s as dozens of countries defaulted within the space of just a few years and a similar outcome awaits if growth does not kick in soon.

          • On October 19, 2014 at 11:25 am,
            Birdman says:

            It is fears of defaults and what that means for the riskier bonds that should ultimately reflate stock markets. There is a possibility of a veritable flood of money that will move out of debt issues and into commodities and stocks once sovereign, municipal, state debt starts to look doubtful.

          • On October 19, 2014 at 2:38 pm,
            Big Al says:

            And that Bird, is one of my big concerns! Bet is it one of yours also.

      • On October 19, 2014 at 6:54 pm,
        Jody D says:

        Sounds like you are as prepared as a person can be. Stay safe. My prayers are with you and your family. Jody D

    • On October 19, 2014 at 8:59 am,
      Big Al says:

      I don’t know about that $986 NYC!

      • On October 19, 2014 at 9:38 am,
        Birdman says:

        968.00 Al or reasonably close. I get a medal if I am correct!

        • On October 19, 2014 at 2:38 pm,
          Big Al says:

          I will make sure of it, Bird!

          • On October 19, 2014 at 2:59 pm,
            Birdman says:

            Wheee! (and you will owe me a 30 dollar bottle of wine)

          • On October 19, 2014 at 6:53 pm,
            Big Al says:

            So you are still drinking rock gut!

          • On October 20, 2014 at 6:03 am,
            Birdman says:

            Nope, that is what you offered in the bet. Your rules. Don’t be so cheap next time!

          • On October 20, 2014 at 10:56 am,
            Big Al says:

            You mean that bet that I actually won, Bird!

          • On October 20, 2014 at 6:15 am,
            Birdman says:

            Just playing with you of course. But here is your comment from last July.

            “On July 17, 2013 at 3:34 pm,
            Big Al says:

            “I’ll take that bet, you’re gonna regret because I’m the best that’s ever been”.
            Thank you Charlie Daniels and, more recently, The Zac Brown Band.

            I say $1075 but probably won’t get that low.

            Any good red wine up to $30.

            Big Al”
            Must be the damned inflation! Back then you thought we could buy good wine for 30.00 dollars.

          • On October 20, 2014 at 7:02 am,
            Matthew says:

            It’s been 15 months, I think you owe Al a bottle of wine. DT is right, you won’t see your 968 either.

          • On October 20, 2014 at 7:37 am,
            Birdman says:

            Nobody asked you. I am talking to Al.

          • On October 20, 2014 at 11:00 am,
            Big Al says:

            No, but Matthew does make an interesting point Bird.

            I say this because I have sent Bobby in Florida two bottles of great wine because of a bet that I lost with him!

          • On October 20, 2014 at 7:49 am,
            Matthew says:

            Sure…lol… so when do you admit that Al won the bet? At 1500 gold? 2000? 10,000? 🙂

          • On October 20, 2014 at 11:47 am,
            Birdman says:

            “You mean that bet that I actually won, Bird!” –Al Korelin
            Ha! Give it up man. We are not at the bottom yet. You only win if gold does not break support and head lower.

            Whats your time frame?

          • On October 20, 2014 at 1:02 pm,
            Big Al says:

            I assumed that it was fairly short term. But, makes no difference. Who knows eventually the price might go down!

  27. On October 19, 2014 at 7:04 am,
    NYC says:

    Wow well be well and my prayers and good wishes to u and ur family…
    Ebola is an abstract idea for us here in the USA and hope it stays that way but probably will get worse before better

    • On October 19, 2014 at 9:02 am,
      Big Al says:

      It seems to be an abstract idea at this point, nyc.

      My guess that the disease will be contained before it is a major problem here.

      Time will tell!

  28. On October 19, 2014 at 5:17 pm,
    Vortex says:

    As if the world and its financial bazaro warfare wasn’t already contorted and fragmented to the extreme, now we have mister insider himself, Jim Rickard coming out and saying “all” the worlds gold will be confiscated by the year 2020 in all G20 countries and stored in an underground vault in Switzerland and permanently taken off the world markets.

    You literally can’t make this stuff up. Who the hell knows where Rickards true colors lie, but I would suggest that he is not what he portrays himself to be as an advocate of a free people with sound money.

    I’m positive that he gets his marching order and money from the same beltway banking cabal that has ****** this entire world up to this point.

    The extreme scare tactics of gov confiscation have already started so buckle up. The PTB are absolutley terrified of something lurking out there and I think we know what it is.

    You now know that Jim Rickards is their selected public front man to stoke the new confiscations propaganda fires and keep the public in a never ending frenzy using gold as the tool.

    These control freaks in charge of Western nation states will never let their tax slaves be free or control his/her own destiny.

    • On October 20, 2014 at 6:47 am,
      Birdman says:

      “As if the world and its financial bazaro warfare wasn’t already contorted and fragmented to the extreme, now we have mister insider himself, Jim Rickard coming out and saying “all” the worlds gold will be confiscated by the year 2020 in all G20 countries” — Vortex
      I agree, that does sound strange. Just months ago Ji had written a piece arguing against confiscation. The article was titled “Your Personal Gold Standard” and it ran on the Daily Reckoning. So this is really an about face. Read what he wrote in June of 2014……..

      “I always tell people who say we’re not on the gold standard that, in a way, we are. You can put yourself on a personal gold standard just by buying gold. In other words, if you think that the value of paper money will be in some jeopardy, or confidence in paper money may be lost, one way to protect yourself is by buying gold, and there’s nothing stopping you.

      The typical rejoinder is, “What’s the point of owning gold? They’re just going to confiscate it, like Roosevelt did in 1933?”

      …if gold is a “stupid” investment, then why do the Chinese have 5,000 tonnes?

      I find that extremely unlikely.

      In 1933, we’d just come through four years of the Great Depression, and Roosevelt was new in office. People talk about the first hundred days, but he closed the banks right after he was sworn in. And he confiscated gold only a few weeks later.

      And it wasn’t as if Elliot Ness was going door to door, breaking into your house and taking gold. They wanted to get a small number of people who had 400-ounce bars in bank vaults. And they got those people because they were able to close the banks and use them as intermediaries to confiscate that gold. But now, it’s far more dispersed, and there’s far less trust in government.

      If the government tried to confiscate gold today, there would be various forms of resistance. The government knows this. So they wouldn’t issue that order, because they know it couldn’t be enforced, and it might cause various kinds of civil disobedience or pushback, etc.” —- Jim Rickards

  29. On October 19, 2014 at 5:47 pm,
    Dick Tracy says:

    You won’t see your gold bottom prediction bird, just like you haven’t seen a real kitten in over 20 years except in your dreams.

    • On October 20, 2014 at 6:56 am,
      Birdman says:

      Based on what? You have inside knowledge, DT? I would like to hear your reasons.

  30. On October 19, 2014 at 5:55 pm,
    Dick Tracy says:

    You guys all are easily fooled by Birdman, he plays you off against one another but he is a looser, don’t let the fool play you for a sucker.

    • On October 20, 2014 at 6:02 am,
      Birdman says:

      Looser, DT? Back to grade skool for you!

  31. On October 19, 2014 at 6:11 pm,
    Lawrence says:

    My opinion is that regardless how low the gold price can go, silver price is stretched to to limit. Anything short of a sharp silver price spike, a lot of mines will shut down and shelf their exploration. Since most of the silver mines are not in US, it is not practical for Wall Street to acquire, the production will be severely impacted. Closure of silver mines will reduce the feedstock of the power that be and produce a lasting silver bull market.

  32. On October 19, 2014 at 7:05 pm,
    Lawrence says:

    Hi friends, I believe Jim Rickards has talked about confiscation before. He believe that in order to back up falling value of US dollar (an euro for that matter), they have to confiscate gold. Other country may have to do the same. I don’t believe he is a front man, at least very unlikely.

  33. On October 20, 2014 at 2:11 am,
    Skeeta says:

    No need to panic with what Rickard’s says.
    Cast any gold holdings into jewellery & whopping big religious artifacts if it ever happens (it wont imo…complete BS)

    • On October 20, 2014 at 10:54 am,
      Big Al says:

      Great point Skeeta!