QE and the Current State of the Markets

November 1, 2014

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    Nov 01, 2014 01:38 AM
      Nov 01, 2014 01:20 AM


      Nov 02, 2014 02:53 AM

      The free trial is now closed.

      Nov 02, 2014 02:39 AM

      Al are you going to get BO POLNY on this week to explain how the 1183 level broke, that he was 100% convinced would not be breached? He said that tracing back to 2013 and 2014 that it had tested that 1183 – 1185 level twice and that the recent test a few weeks back would hold. Clearly it didn’t, so I’d like to here his justification now.

        Nov 02, 2014 02:45 AM

        He said it would the third higher low confirming the uptrend in the bull market. However, Gary & Rick were right and it was just a counter trend pop in the final leg of the gold & commodities bear market. I think Doc & Gary are right that in very short order, we’ll get a nice bounce in PM’s, but after a month or two will have another last leg down in the commodity cycle. (especially since gold & oil are breaking their mid term support levels like they have been). This mean a relief rally is coming into Nov/Dec, then topping turbulent volatile period grinding down, then the bull market opportunity of a generation.

    Nov 01, 2014 01:55 AM

    Great news! Bo Polny says gold to $2,000 in November. I guess the line in the sand moved. No worries. I wish the soothsayers would finally be bearish. Too many weak longs who need to throw in the towel on prediction.

      Nov 01, 2014 01:17 AM

      I didn’t feel comfortable with Bo Polny’s last interview on KE Report and mentioned it. Hope is not an investment strategy.

        Nov 01, 2014 01:49 AM

        All you have to do is.. Bo-lieve!

        Nov 01, 2014 01:33 AM

        I was not comfortable at al with.

        Please repeat Simon why you were not comfortable with it.

        Thank you.

          Nov 01, 2014 01:16 PM

          I appreciate your site because the views of your guests are balanced, they respect respect the price action and manage their risk. Bo Polny doesn’t fit that category his calls have proven to be wrong, if you invite him on and he admits that the i would maybe reconsider my opinion. I just think people tune in to such pundits which make bold calls, no different to the serial offenders at KWN, and put way too much capital at risk as a consequence. Chris Temple in contrast had some excellent comments about how to play the gold mining sector this week.

      Nov 01, 2014 01:32 AM

      So Bo keeps moving his predictions.

      Positive this to positiv that. .

      Everybody has to do what their shitck is, don’t they!

      Nov 01, 2014 01:37 AM

      He has flipped out. Money is not suddenly going to flow into gold. Gold is at least headed to 1100 or so and then a dead cat bounces coming but eventually it could break 1100 and head to around 1033 where it took off from in 2010. 1300 failed many times and then 1200 and we will have to see how many times 1100 fails to get an idea if it will bottom lower near 1000. I am in the regular markets only with a few attempts at gdx in and out.

      Nov 01, 2014 01:54 PM

      $2000 a pound maybe. I wish I could constantly move my sales targets in my job anytime I wanted. Its called ACCOUNTABILITY. People should stop listening to these clowns.

        Nov 02, 2014 02:31 AM

        Gotta didagree Duke and, trust me, I know all about accountability. No intelligent person can give a line in the sand prediction anymore. The best case is: if this then this. Look at just how stupid these “I guarantee this” people look now.

    Nov 01, 2014 01:39 AM

    Might be of interest to KR readers:

    ‘Japan risks Asian currency war with fresh QE blitz’

      Nov 01, 2014 01:34 AM

      Many thanks, Bob UK!

    Nov 01, 2014 01:29 AM

    Was was gonna buy buy some PM miners on Thursday and Friday but held off after Yamana’s after hours report on Thursday. I wasn’t sure what they would have.
    Darn glad I waited…

    1 billion dollar loss and cut dividend. WOW

    It is very clear that big miners don’t get it.

    The market is looking for them to shrink in size not grow. Yamana bought Osisko and blew their quarter and their balance sheet…..

    Very very stupid short term…

    They paid dearly this week… I will actually wait while this sector disintegrates now as most miners need to finish reporting their quarters. They are using this quarter to obliterate their shareholders with horrible reports…

    Why give them my money? Bought Index ETF’s instead as the new highs show we are beginning the bubble phase.

    Why catch the falling bazooka.. These idiot miners have had 4 years to clean up their books and done little to nothing. In fact they have thumbed their noses at us.

    Well my response to the mining bosses is “Stick it!”

    You can see the capitulation though in the shareholders this week. HUI, GDX, GDXJ all broke support. They are throwing these out for any price…

    The washout is in progress. A year or so probably which would be in line with Gary’s thinking. There are no fundamentals in this PM sector. There is only negligence and bloodshed..

    Why reward bad corporate behavior, let’s crush there share price in response for their arrogance.

    Japanese institutional are buying shares and moving out of treasuries… That is a tell that we are not fully invested yet the general markets

      Nov 01, 2014 01:55 AM

      The last trade you published was an all in buy of JNUG on Oct. 8. Since you never stated you sold I have to assume that you are now down 60% in your account. And just the other day you posted an indepth analysis of why everyone was now in the market and a top was near. Now you reverse course and say we aren’t fully invested.

      After the fact trades don’t count in this business. The rest of us have to trade in real time so why shouldn’t you? If you want anyone to believe your calls post them in real time.

        Nov 01, 2014 01:45 AM


        Point made, i agree..

      Nov 01, 2014 01:00 AM

      Your analysis in mining equities makes sense. The problem is that this sector was tapping into investor’s pocket for too long and not paying attention to profit. Management keep thinking investors will pay them as long as they offer a good story. Not sure why they just don’t get it. I want them to cut production and cost to make me some money and pay me good dividend. I sold some shares and move the money into silver physical ETF and oil gas. I will put some money back to general equity after the election is done.

      Nov 01, 2014 01:52 AM

      Hi Ken,

      I agree with your comments regarding the majority of the companies, not all however. I have been involved in this business for a long time and I can tell you there are some good and honest people in the mining industry. But you bet, there are many to stay away from.

    Nov 01, 2014 01:46 AM

    Hi Doc -Regarding your comment – its going to be a good bounce to at least from where we sold off today maybe higher (1205-1210?)- Doc this sounds like a much different forecast/outlook for the bounce than you had anticipated earlier where you had seen gold going up to anywhere from1285 to 1345 (I think the numbers were). Gary’s cycle view sounds/seems to have a more optimistic about the bounce. Do you mind commenting. Additionally, have you given up on GDX? Thanks in advance.

      Nov 01, 2014 01:20 AM

      Same question to Doc as by Doc Fan. If your rebound target is so low, then I guess you don’t agree with Gary that we will have a 2 month rally in GLD and miners? What does the rebound look like to you in terms of time and price? Thanks.

      Nov 01, 2014 01:51 AM

      Doc Fan,

      I will try and answer in my tone using both doc and gary. Doc’s scenario can have us next week moving up into 1183-1213 and this can all happen in an hour,hours or a single day..It could then mean a fake out which is why i believe doc has that stance. If it was, nothing would change with gary as we would still be within his daily cycle count. We are currently in day 19. Gary says it can go anywhere between 18-24 days and even stretch out some more.

        Nov 01, 2014 01:01 AM

        Thanks Glenfidish!

        Nov 01, 2014 01:54 AM

        thanks as always Glen. what is your feeling about this whole thing? I know you have called for an entry at voting time for a while now. miners seem to be in a death spiral and the dollar is racing upwards. im really wondering… does the fed really want the dollar to go down? they may be making statements of concern, but the recent action tells a different story

          Nov 01, 2014 01:27 PM

          Doc Fan,

          It pretty fascinating that my long term after elections call seems to be lining up with gary’s cycles and doc’s call. I’ve always been a big believer as Big events are turning points. Does not mean it happens on day of event but can happen weeks or days leading up to an event or afterwards. I happen to pick afterwards as the fix for obama and fed will be in and there appetite content. I agree with gary that oil will gave a bounce and equities will also lead up into a parabolic event towards early to late first quarter. I don’t have a crystal ball but my work that I do leads me to think that gold/silver and miners will move up soon out of this funk and capitulation we are seeing. I agree it’s only going to be a bounce. But the good news is that it will be a nice rally with good decent gains enough for one to make really good money. I believe this bounce leads us up with equities into same time line and then all hell break loose.

          Not sure what fed wants to do but seems simple to me. All i know is euro has date with 119-121. And dollar eventually .72 and below.

          For now dollar up euro down. I expect euro to start strengthening soon and dollar reverse temporarily.

      Nov 01, 2014 01:59 AM

      Morning Doc Fan,

      This is a crazy and dynamic (perhapsfluid is a betterword!) market.

      Anyone who makes absolute, line in the sand statements is an opportunist looking for your money.

      Notice that Doc always says I think or the charts tell me.

      Best to you!

    Nov 01, 2014 01:26 AM

    If the Republicans have control of both houses of Congress, would there be any chance of them growing a spine and insisting on auditing the Fed?

      Nov 01, 2014 01:02 AM

      My opion Sooze? Not a chance if you are referring to the issue of gold!

    Nov 01, 2014 01:39 AM

    People want a date….when will gold go up…when! when! when!…..well buy gold well before November 30th 2014……you have been enlightened…use it wisely.

      Nov 01, 2014 01:06 AM

      When specifically it will go up is absolutely impossibly to predict.

      Predicting utilizing certain parameters is a different story.

    Nov 01, 2014 01:47 AM

    Maguire: This Triggered Today’s Massive Selloff In Gold & Silver

    Eric King: “Andrew, we are seeing a continuation of the smash in gold and silver. What are your thoughts here as you are watching this?”

    Maguire: “First thing this morning, after the Bank of Japan decision, things got a bit roiled. But what I did see was a fully-timed algorithm kick off at exactly 7 AM U.K. time.

    There is only one seller that can come up with 50 tons of paper gold in a matter of 3 or 4 minutes and that is the Bank for International Settlements….

    Nov 01, 2014 01:05 AM

    Avi Gilburt’s predictions are along the same line as Martin Armstrongs.

    Dow Jones – OMG – A Possible Sling-Shot Move?

    We now must realize that exceeding the September high intraday will signal we just may be in store for an awesome Sling-Shot Move to the upside – that’s a run-away that takes out the lows and then runs through the highs.

    On top of that, we may be making at least a Channel Move and possibly preparing for a Plateau Move. This is all fine and dandy to make money in stocks, but it is a devastating signal for a collapse in government and the monetary system that may be an under statement.

      Nov 01, 2014 01:08 AM

      Good point Markettofuture’!

    Nov 01, 2014 01:10 AM

    I agree with Mr. Savage.

    They will not stop feeding the junkies. They will simply do it in many other forms.

    It will be easy to see….as they always show it all right here.

    If you see the numbers continue to increase in the 4.1 reports, then they are still soaking up the crap. The 4.1 report should also give you partial insight into how they are doing it.

    Nov 01, 2014 01:20 AM

    Last but not least is an explanation on why the Fed has to do what it does.

    What Greenspan’s Latest Talk Means for Gold

    Friday, October 31, 2014
    Henry Bonner

    I traveled last week to the New Orleans Investment Conference, previously known as the ‘Gold Show.’ Jim Blanchard, a man known for promoting the right to own gold during the Nixon era, started the conference in 1974.

    Early on, the conference was a gathering place for investors in precious metals. Speakers such as Rick Rule broke out into the investment scene through conferences like this one.

    I’ll report later on the many speakers who attended the conference – and try to boil down some of the salient points from the highly valuable conference (attendees took nearly a week away from their regular lives to attend).

    For now, I’ll confine myself to the headline speaker of the show – former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan – and what his comments could mean for gold investors.

      Nov 01, 2014 01:03 AM

      This report is very telling and I developed respect for Greenspan. I think he is as honest as he can be in this conference. That is what gold community has believed for a long time. If this is what happens, we should not worry about PM since no one can create any difference in the direction. Governments are borrowing like crazy everywhere.see japan.

    Nov 01, 2014 01:30 AM

    Great show guys! Al You and Cory in the final segment were commenting on fundamentals and I know you are fundamentally a fundamentals guy 😉 as you have stated when markets were traded freely (at least when they weren’t as contrived and fed this inflationary I.v.) fundamentals seemed to have much more of an impact and we’re much more useful as a tool for directing investments. It cam to mind that this may still be true on one condition: that we alter our definition of fundamentals.
    Gary , in conjunction with cycles , whether he knows it or not, has made some MASSIVE calls over the last few months and these calls as you know have been based on the market manipulation by the fed, bullion banks, etc.
    I would think if we are looking to factors such as these this would be a more useful idea of fundamentals in a world of contrived markets don’t you?

      Nov 01, 2014 01:40 AM

      One example based on these kind of fundamentals (at least long term) is how the deflationist argument will be proven completely wrong. The fed will never allow prolonged deflation. Forget about it. If a deflationary event gets bad enough then beyond qe and market injections, the u.s. gov hasn’t really even begun the massive kind of measures they will eventually undertake injecting into main st. I.e. mail out Cheques, massive construction projects, (who knows maybe they will build a high speed train from NY – LA or Washington – Ottawa).

        Nov 01, 2014 01:04 AM

        Jay, will the populace love hearing that they don’t have to go to work anymore, if deflation gets real bad all they will have to do is collect their pay from the mailbox. How do you see inflation playing out will they just add more zero’s to those cheques so they can keep feeding themselves and pay the cable fee.

          Nov 01, 2014 01:45 AM

          That’s one way to do it. If you look at what’s happened even just in the grocery store you can find another example that translates out across the economy. Instead of, say, pricing bacon up 50%, the price might only increase a few % or perhaps even stay the same, the quantity of bacon in the package however gets reduced drastically. So either way you pay more for less therefore inflating the price. You can apply that to real estate as another example. Shoebox living is becoming the new thing even in places like Vancouver where you can get a killer deal on a suite for less than 200000 (you can’t buy a 2 bedroom condo in Vancouver for less than 3-5 hundred thousand) . The only thing is these suites are less than 300 sq ft and your bedroom, kitchen, sometimes even bathroom are the same room.

            Nov 01, 2014 01:50 AM

            There are plenty of ways to inflate (not that I agree with any of them). I’m sure minimum wage will continue to be legislated upwards. Cheques were mailed out in 2008 (ask Gary about that one), and the subsidies will flow!! Military , agriculture, student debt relief, there are countless ways to do it. All crazy, all will end badly but any way you do it , there will be NO prolonged deflation, only temporary deflationary events

            Nov 01, 2014 01:18 AM

            I, for one, could not live like that. By the way, also happening in Seattle.

          Nov 01, 2014 01:15 AM

          Machine Gun,

          I personally don’t thin k that is a realistic senario. Just my humble opinion.

            Nov 01, 2014 01:47 AM

            Of course I agree with you Al, but sometimes I just can’t help myself old ways die hard.

        Nov 01, 2014 01:13 AM

        Deflation (significant) would collapse the economy!

          Nov 01, 2014 01:27 AM

          deflation happened naturally in all 19 th century and economy did not collapse. It was the period US gained great ground in economy. Lower price makes people buy more. People buy a lot of electronics since the price is going lower every year and they can afford more. I don’t even hesitate to buy electronics and I remember 10-20 years ago I had to budget. Who can afford large screen TV if it costs 100k. However deflation will kill the financial industry since it is a ponzi. My two cents

            Nov 01, 2014 01:58 AM

            Absolutely right, Lawrence. Deflation is good and natural and therefore the Fed’s kryptonite. Their smoke and mirrors ponzi scheme is inflationary by design and will collapse sooner rather than later without exponential debt growth.
            This explains the brainwashing of the last 100 years.

            Nov 01, 2014 01:13 AM

            Any well trained person in mathematics will know with current debt based economy, regardless how low the interest rate is, the growth in money supply is exponential. It has to end someday. When this is all over, the guys who is the origin of the money (paper) will own all the asset and people are left with debt. It is a well designed wealth transfer scheme. Every year, 1 or 2 % of the asset goes to the bankers as interest. To keep thing going, they have to print more and more. I think this is the definition of Ponzi scheme.

            Nov 01, 2014 01:25 AM

            Make that at least a dollar, Lawrence!

            Nov 02, 2014 02:05 AM

            There was no quadrillion-dollar derivatives bubble in the 19th Century. That is the potential power of the coming deflation. “Good and nautral (see below).”? I don’t think so.

          Nov 01, 2014 01:54 AM

          Yes, it would but somehow we must reset or face endless crisis which will have the same result. Collapsing the economy is not that bad in my view then we can get back to your fundamental views which are more relevant in my mind.

            Nov 01, 2014 01:35 AM

            As you know Machine Gun, I am pretty sure that will eventually happen. And, that would not be a bad thing!

      Nov 01, 2014 01:12 AM

      Morning Jay,

      Manipulation is definately a “fundamental” to consider in my mind!

        Nov 01, 2014 01:18 AM

        Then you get the full picture instead of say “this does not make sense”. I wish I am an insider.

          Nov 01, 2014 01:48 AM

          I don’t know Lawrence but I hope so!

    Nov 01, 2014 01:38 AM

    I just don’t care about the PM markets right now. I’ll wait until next fall.
    I there is a massive selloff I’ll consider if prices look ridiculously low. I give up.

      Nov 01, 2014 01:57 AM

      Open your eyes this is a massive sell off.. You have miners at there 1998 lows..2006 lows and 2008 lows that have been broken. Let me remind you the market is forward thinking. Don’t ever believe for a second you will hit the bottom down the road. If you where that good you would not be posting in here. Your account would be along the multimillionaires.

        Nov 01, 2014 01:42 AM

        For mining industry, the gold price is one thing and the mentality of management is a bigger one. Most of them don’t put their bottom line as a priority and operate like dot com companies instead. We all know how well dot com went. I almost believe that gold silver keeps moving up when this is all over and miners will keep struggle and never benefit. A lot of them will close.

          Nov 01, 2014 01:30 AM

          Okay Lawtence, but not all!

            Nov 01, 2014 01:09 PM

            Yes, there are good ones which can make fortune,it is how rick rule got his wealth.

            Nov 01, 2014 01:22 PM

            Some of mine too, Lawrence.

            Nov 01, 2014 01:10 PM

            Sorry Al , I did say most, but not all

        Nov 01, 2014 01:01 AM

        You don’t think multimillionaires post here?

          Nov 01, 2014 01:38 AM

          Sure they do. Remember everyone puts their pants on the same way!

            Nov 01, 2014 01:58 AM

            Absolutely, Al!

          Nov 01, 2014 01:30 PM

          Im sure they do. I did not mean that literally :).

          How about multibillionaires?

            Nov 01, 2014 01:38 PM

            There ya go —being a billionaire has to be a full time job! 😉

      Nov 01, 2014 01:19 AM

      Temporarily stop for Cecil, but keep your eyes open as I am!

    Nov 01, 2014 01:00 AM

    It’s okay, Al, when you mention the word “criminal” in the same sentence as The Fed. My opinion is that The Fed represents the criminal elite who pull the strings. And, that makes them an accessory to the crime. That people, mostly politicians and their mindless followers don’t want to come to grips with the situation is beyond me. I guess when something is 100 years old and was forced upon the USA in secret, it would be a monumental task to dismantle it without nothing short of a revolution. Personally, I think it will cycle into full blown socialism that may take another generation to finally figure out it doesn’t work. Bottom line for me is just staying on the right side of the fence and be ready to navigate through the toughest of times if I had to.

      Nov 01, 2014 01:22 AM

      Exactly Chips, stay on the right side of the fence as I am!

    Nov 01, 2014 01:29 AM

    In segment 4, I like what Rhylin said but not what Albert said. What Albert described is typical altitude of mining in Bay Street. As an investor, I am no longer worried about losing opportunity since there isn’t any if the company can not be realistic and survive. One day investors will dump them. It is much better to go hibernation unless you make profit. My two cents

      Nov 01, 2014 01:03 AM

      Indeed. This ‘hope and change’ pitch has worn itself out in the PM sector too.

      I have no time for it!!!!

        Nov 01, 2014 01:29 AM

        I am a believer in PM but not mining equities. I took my chance thinking shares are cheap so I loaded some last year and this year. I am paying a big price. I will lighten up the ones I am not sure like I did for Pam American silver and Agnico eagle. I will concentrate on really good ones and on PM itself. I have shifted some money into energy recently taking advantage of low share price. I have been trying to avoiding heavily invested in energy since I am too depend on it but I feel our operating model makes more sense than those of PM producer. The whole sector of PM works like explorers.

        Nov 01, 2014 01:41 AM

        Okay, but you have to admit it is definitely interesting, Cecil!

    Nov 01, 2014 01:35 AM

    Al, very good show today , thanks. Gary, I wish I could see the technicals as you do. I agree with your predictions of the cycle. It’s a no brainer for me to see a massive rally in stocks. I know for a fact gold is getting crushed, but it’s not from the charts , it’s from connecting the financial structure dots. Everyone I’ve heard on this site has an opinion on what the fed has done and is doing. All are wrong. I will explain that ” after ” the washout on gold. ( 5 to 600s, you’ll see ) Great show , thanks

      Nov 01, 2014 01:23 AM

      Pleasure Chartster, and thank you!

      Nov 01, 2014 01:34 AM


      Gold is currently in a bear market within a bull market. Many great investors know this including the prophet armstrong who jj so covets. Your 500-600 case scenario has no validity to it. What do you base this off of? Elliot wave? cycles? please help all in here to understand your viewsl and armageddon scenario for gold. Don’t just spit put numbers and expect all to understand you. How about you explain it now before your numbers are triggered in your world.

      Hey im open minded to anything 500-600 would be the end of the bull market in an era or century where the world is upside down and new world currency will arrive at some point in the future. Never in the history that I know of has there been a correction of 70% or more of the entire bull and still stay intact. Am i missing something?

        Nov 01, 2014 01:55 AM

        He is quite secretive about it. I think he believe some gold bond 100 years ago in China will result something like this. Only thing I can find is there wer some gold bond in 1914 in China. But Chinese government already declared all previous treaties and liabilities to China became invalid when it took power in1949 and they are willing to fight war with anyone who dare to demand it. They are responsible only for thing under their control.

    Nov 01, 2014 01:40 AM

    How does Washington control oil prices?

      Nov 01, 2014 01:47 AM

      It gets harder I feel but they still can do it with massive forward selling. However, I don’t think they want to kill the new oil gas boom in US since they Are in it.

      Nov 01, 2014 01:29 AM

      A valid question, Reg. To assume that is to assume the US can control all prices. I really don’t think that is the case.

      Nov 01, 2014 01:31 PM

      reg cole,

      They pick up the phone and call the saudis..Then the saudis make the call to the rest of the arab world.

    Nov 01, 2014 01:06 AM

    Just want to give some weekend expanded on the PMs and stocks—-it’s difficult to mention everything you would like in a short segment, Right now all the momentum indicators and strength indicators are not in the favor of both PMs and PM stocks. There is no question we’re going to get a healthy bounce back for the PMs but the only question is timing. If you look at Gary’s cycle theory it could occur as early as next week based on the current daily cycle. However, if the daily cycle is one those unusual extended cycles, we may be in for an ongoing downturn for the PMs and PM stocks in the first part of November. Frankly, I would prefer this since most of the solid PM stocks will see their lows by the end of November. I feel investors would then be able to take positions at levels we haven’t seen in years with very low risk of further downturn. The other possibility is we get an early bounce and then have to endure another multi-week process of pain and a desire to get this over with. I would prefer a catharsis in November since for me personally, I would finally take a position with the capital I’ve projected to put in this sector. Once again, for that to happen, you would need an extended daily and intermediate cycle to accomplish a further November sell-off. Right now the Momentum and strength indicators don’t show a sudden turning for the daily cycle—November will be interesting.

      Nov 01, 2014 01:31 AM

      Doc, back off your focus on gold and the miners, focus on whats moving these investments which has been down since 2011 with decent pops along the way, nothing goes straight down.

      Its the currency markets that are driving golds value, nothing more…with Fri BOJ announcement the next leg down in $YEN has started which will create bullish moves in the US$ along with more weakness in the Euro, this is a new trend which could send the Euro$ to 120 and Yen to 118, that is in NO way gold bullish.

      Its foolish to call a low in gold by only looking at golds chart as its being traded off the currency market, so focus on $Yen, Euro$ and the US$ for guidance its worked perfectly since Sept 2011 both from trading short positions and long positions in gold, silver and the miners…Fri gold reaction off the BOJ has even the blind seeing

        Nov 01, 2014 01:41 AM

        Printing any fiat currency is bullish for gold. It might be good for other fiats as well but it only lasts until they print as well to match it. Only printing gold is bearish for gold which is what US governments and FED is doing by creating paper gold. But they have to retreat since they won’t have physical to handle the blood letting of eastern buying. This is what happened in 1971.

          Nov 01, 2014 01:41 AM

          Lawrence your clueless reading gold and currencies your approach and understanding is completely a** backwards

            Nov 01, 2014 01:17 PM

            You can definitely give me some proof instead of swearing. Things have to make sense in long run but may not be short run. It hasn’t been working for two year. That is it. When I started in gold and silver it was $400.

            Nov 01, 2014 01:48 PM

            Lawrence, why bother with this guy? His anger is caused by confusion.

        Nov 01, 2014 01:50 AM

        jj; I’m not much interested where the PMs settle; I’m more interested where the PM stocks hit all-time lows. The reason is that I’m willing to purchase and then hold for considerable time. By the way, the dollar chart is still bullish and will move higher in the near term. If the PMs are inversely related, they’ll move lower next week as well which is fine with me since then we may see the final catharsis for some PM stocks—-which I’ve wanted to purchase for a long time.

          Nov 01, 2014 01:39 PM


          You are like my clone. Two minds alike. I gotta tell you my dna in the investment world has you and gary in it. You and gary are very much alike except different methods.
          Rick is also great in sharp shooting specific targets.

          At this point I dont care if bottom comes in at 969/1000/1050/1125 or monday morning. I will pull the trigger when the miners i have in my portfolio hit all time lows and double bottom or get to ridiculous valuations that make no sense what so ever. May I say we are very close. Some miners doc still need to play catch up. I think we have another week minimum.

      Nov 01, 2014 01:33 AM

      Doc,Can you put the timing to December to avoid tax loss selling? It could be brutal

        Nov 01, 2014 01:51 AM

        Based on charts, it may well take place in November instead of December.

      Nov 01, 2014 01:35 AM

      Before The Fed, depression’s typically lasted only one to three years and the economy was renewed. One depression however lasted almost thirty years and that I believe was brought on by the disruptions of The American Civil War. I find all this volatility we are now facing very unsettling and it makes it hard to play anything without uncertainty constantly creeping into any decision making process. I can imagine this being an even harder scenario for someone running a company. At least if you know that the bottom has been reached you can plan accordingly.

      Do you remember ” All In The Family” when Edith was going through the change, Archie was always saying to her ” I just wish you would get it over with.”

      Nov 01, 2014 01:45 AM

      Thanks Doc.

      We are currently watching our team play Rick’s team.

    Nov 01, 2014 01:32 AM

    Richard thanks for the insights.

    I also agree there needs to be more blood shed.

    Do you see the latest short ratio for yamana on october 15? double volume from previous numbers.. Wowsers..You add the chilean tax loss and other write down and that stock is head right now towards a ugly low..

      Nov 01, 2014 01:54 AM

      Yamana is an accident waiting to happen—-a price of 2 seems in the offing.

        Nov 01, 2014 01:53 PM

        Do you think short covering can happen quickly on Yamaha?

          Nov 01, 2014 01:42 PM

          Lawrence yes but after it reaches 2 and maybe even below that.

            Nov 01, 2014 01:10 PM

            I guess I have to get rid of it with a loss. I thought it is one of the most solid gold miners and bought it last year. I will go back to check the rest. Is the death of mining coming like Any Hoffman predicted? I don’t worry about gold but mining is a different matter.

          Nov 01, 2014 01:22 PM

          lawrence im not giving any investment advice but id gotta say id sell and buy in at a lower price. Ive done that already with one of my stocks. Glad I did. Longer term lawrence yamana will be a winner

          Nov 02, 2014 02:00 AM

          Hey Lawrence,

          Yamaha or Yamana?

            Nov 02, 2014 02:29 AM

            I guess I like my piano too much. I own Yamaha but not as stock.

        Nov 01, 2014 01:41 PM

        I fully agree Doc.. But it may turn out to be a great buying opportunity. Sometimes miners get taken to the woodshed more then they should. They still produce 1.2 -1.4 million at aisc of 840 or so..

        Nov 01, 2014 01:13 PM

        Doc, others are looking worse except a few. Only two better ones I can say but not sure, Goldcorp and Silver Wheaton. What do you think about them?

    Nov 01, 2014 01:37 AM

    Does anyone believe $1000 gold and $10-12 silver are possible??

    I think yes. Maybe. At least for a short period of time. Like 12-18 months!!

    I simply have no confidence in judging these markets. Must wait for an extraordinary bloodbath, like $100 down days with several in a row. Then I;ll be interested.

      Nov 01, 2014 01:49 AM

      But it may or may not. We can not base investment on one outcome. It is like waiting for another shoe to drop and it may never does. Then you will be waiting on the sideline forever. And when it does come, why 1000, you will likely to wait for 500. There is no fundamental there. All speculating. I think it is better to put money gradually in instead one lump sum.

        Nov 01, 2014 01:58 AM

        Fair enough, but I’ve done that for 18 months, Its worn thin as a plan.

          Nov 01, 2014 01:20 PM

          You are right on. Everyone is reaching the exhaustion point

      Nov 02, 2014 02:08 AM

      $8 silver is possible. See my post under Thursday’s discussion.

    Nov 01, 2014 01:59 AM

    Al, don’t do it! Don’t commit suicide no matter how bad things get in the resource sector. Remember, no matter how bad things are they could always be worse.

      Nov 01, 2014 01:13 AM

      Suicide is not an option. But you know that Ebolan!

    Nov 01, 2014 01:07 AM

    RE: Keynesianism

    “Whether it’s rubbish remains to be seen…it’s the prettiest baby in the nursery in the sense it’s the only thing that’s really working right now.”

    Was this for comedic purposes? It not, that’s a whopper. It is causing massive malinvestment that is going to kill us economically.

    Click here to see what this Keynesian baby is growing into.

    Nov 01, 2014 01:19 AM

    It will be interesting to see how China will react to Japan’s QE. I do not think this move is sitting very well with the Chinese government. It has the making of another Asia crisis like the one in 1997-98. First and foremost China will start flexing its military weight in the area, that I am certain of; and I will make a little prediction here: I predict that China and Japan will go to war sometime in the future. Also, another country to watch for is South Korea. A lot of companies over there are bleeding and are having a hard time keeping the lights on. All I can say is, what a mess.

    Nov 01, 2014 01:56 AM

    I will make a little prediction here: I predict that China and Japan will go to war sometime in the future.

    When? Are you Chris Temple?

      Nov 01, 2014 01:15 PM

      Not Chris Temple. When? When life becomes unbearable for the average Japanese citizen. This round of QE should put the final nail in the casket. Always keep an eye on Japan’s misery index- it tells the whole story. Also, China has a large percentage of males who are just twiddling their thumbs- no jobs and no women. It would be in China’s best interest to get rid of them, or they’ll cause a lot of trouble at home.

        Nov 01, 2014 01:19 PM
        Nov 01, 2014 01:27 PM

        It is possible. I am interested in Chinese history a lot and did read a lot of books. Since China usually large and densely populated, when there is a tough time coming, government will put all their effort to put off domestic revolts. A phrase is often referred as 攘外必先安内, meaning defending against foreign force requires internal unity first. It usually fights wars on strategic expansion or for survival. This government seems following same culture. However I feel that people are fed up with Japan, Philipines and Vietnam and will support a war. So one never know.

          Nov 01, 2014 01:46 PM

          Lawrence, China-Japan relations haven’t been good for a long time now. And people have forgotten about the Nanking Massacre in 1937. China has said repeatedly in the past that some day they will even the score. The old Chinese folks up here in Montreal have all told me the same thing: China must get its pound of flesh for that atrocity. I imagine the same feelings can be found in China.

            Nov 01, 2014 01:24 PM

            Yes, Chinese people seems not forgetting and the opinion favors punishing Japan. In my opinion, I believe the misery in WWII was due to Chinese domestic fragmentation at the time and the refusal to reform by the late Qing Empire. One more to blame was the weak government at the time which came from Japanese support. They were reluctant to fight Japan. I feel the current government is very clear on a strategy that in order to fight Japan, China has to beat US simultaneously. Otherwise the war would be a defeat, which benefits US tremendously. High level leader repeated said that China-US war is inevitable but I seem never heard they say the same thing about China-Japanese war. From what I can see, Chinese government is not going to start a war with Japan, instead they might be preparing for an expansion in the South China sea. It is where the major natural resources are located. In recent year China has significantly expanded its strategic naval force such as nuclear submarines fleet with the capability of carrying large amount of nuclear weapons. It is not likely it is aimed at Japan since Chinese land based nuclear warheads can reach Japan easily.

            Nov 02, 2014 02:19 AM

            And it was an atrocity. War generally is!

          Nov 02, 2014 02:13 AM

          Thanks for those insights, Lawrence!

      Nov 01, 2014 01:21 PM

      I don’t that is even to close to being right around the corner. But you know the old saying, “never say never”!

        Nov 01, 2014 01:34 PM

        You can say that again. My grandfather used to say: Hitler was the statesman of the year in 1938, and the next year he was public enemy # 1. Never say never…

          Nov 01, 2014 01:38 PM

          Rihht on Chris!

    Nov 01, 2014 01:00 PM

    Glenfidish , it’s not an Armageddon type scenario at all. Metals should rebound quite quickly after the wash. It will just spook investors, which is the intention or byproduct of the event. Great time to move after the bottom is in.

      Nov 01, 2014 01:48 PM


      The fed or powerful entities don’t need gold to go that far down to wash everyone out. Another 200 points and I guarantee the only one’s holding gold are Bird,jj,skeeta,vortex and the bankers..

        Nov 01, 2014 01:15 PM

        The next 5-10 trading days should tell the story. Very exciting time we are in for sure.

        Nov 01, 2014 01:11 PM

        Quite a few of us should be able to hold gold if it drops another 200. But the gold shares will get decimated, if not already.

          Nov 02, 2014 02:32 AM

          The bounce back should be very quick, so anyone holding shouldn’t be hurt for long.

      Nov 02, 2014 02:02 AM

      I have been here before, Chartster, and I agree with you!

    Nov 01, 2014 01:04 PM

    ….you say: “the 3 musketeers…” but the MOST accurate one here at least in the last 3-5 months I have been following your site has been by far GARY. Even though TA means crap/nothing in manipulated markets (which we certainly are!), Gary mixes it with the practical view of : ” …the FED cannot let the 2010 and 2011 happen again after ending QE1 and QE2….so they got your back…” As a consequence of that, in reality he is telling Rick (who is by far the better technician) that bear market(s) DO NOT start with fresh ALL TIME HIGHS….!!! Chris is way, way of in his calls because he follows the fundamentals…which are going to be avoided AT ALL costs by TPTB. Whereas Doc is a newbie at these things and that is why he is saying always: “…the next week is going to be crucial…”, but that short term view allows him to be at least half the time correct!
    Fundamentaly speaking, in the long term we are going to have a currency/government crisis and hyperinflation …and right now we are entering the phase of deflation which Always precedes it… and the way the governments always react is by trying to avoid deflation… That is the fundamental reason why we WILL certainly see market go HIGHER, way, way Higher and the 10 year yield go lower and lower….and when they cannot do this anymore, we WILL have hyperinflation and WAR…for the gov WILL invent (as it has done ALWAYS and without exception in the past) foreign and domestic enemies (i.e. bundy ranch, Putin, chinese etc, etc…) to take the blame away from the REAL culprit: the gov itself!!!
    That is why I am not worried about gold/silver going to $10K, or $10000000000000000…..K an ounce…for it will! I am worried about how the world will look when gold goes there…..
    How does GARY know why the FED has not tapered: here is what I wrote as an answer to the question: “Where will the fuel come from? Who would be buying, esp. now that QE3 has ended?” posted by Bill in Tokyo on Gary’s site on Wednesday:

    Ours is a growth based system…QE can NEVER end, or we shall have the mother of all margin calls and say hello to Dark Ages…with nukes as a twist, I might add…
    They will change the name (or simply lie and/or not tell at all) from QE to some other clever gimmick (i.e Belgium with a GDP of ~$420B has bought ALL of the treasuries that Ruissa/China sold in the last 6-12 months and then some … roughly ~$380B…ha, ha, ha…) to make you (and millions like you) think that they did indeed end QE …
    …It is IMPOSSIBLE to taper and/or end QE!!! In our current monetary sysytem the amount of debt/credit/money in circulation, or parked somewhere as an investment (of any kind) today MUST be bigger than that – and the accrued interest – of a year ago, or we shall crush in a deflationary death spiral that shall make 1929-1933 look like kindergarten fun and spooky holloween brunch.
    What I told you not even 1% of PHDs in economics know and makes your question mute/nuisance …You are Welcome!
    -As Gary has said repetedly: fed got your back…..until they cant anymore, so market is going up…way up for the time being…..maybe till next fall/winter ….and then….hide…..but most importantly pray!!!
    In the mean time, stick it to your brain: market Will go up and interest on the treasuries Will go down! Fed will never increase interest rates…ever! Neither next spring, nor ever!
    Be well and hedge acordingly.

    Hope that helps,
    Be well and keep up the good informative work

      Nov 02, 2014 02:11 AM

      Bear markets start whenever they please, Petro. As for the Fed “having our back,” I can predict with absolute certainiy that all who believe that the Fed can hold back the tide forever will be the first to drown.

        Nov 02, 2014 02:16 PM

        Good Lord not even a slight hint of humility or congrats to your peer who absolutely nailed this one?? What you fail to point out in your quadrillion derivatives repetition , a point the gold bugs will certainly appreciate Rick is that although that is true, the PM s have NEVER been as re hypothesized as they are now! – the only reason pm price has been able to be manipulated down the way it has.

          Nov 02, 2014 02:27 PM

          Edit: (rehypothecated)

      Nov 02, 2014 02:08 AM

      Thanks Petro. Please keep your thought provoking comments coming.

      Have a great rest of the weekend.

    Nov 01, 2014 01:09 PM

    Doc, am curious, when you buy physical gold, do you mind sharing how you go about that? Eg: buy from a local dealer, and store yourself, or in a bank deposit box, or ? Or buy using an overseas dealer/storage, like, or ??? I live overseas, and am still trying to figure out how to do it – where to buy, so that I can store it, and also sell it. Just as much as you can safely share would be much appreciated please. Thank you.

      Nov 01, 2014 01:16 PM

      Bill, I’ll try to help you. Try Apmex. On the top right where it says “Why Apmex” put your mouse over it and a list will drop down, then click International and then choose your country… it’ll give you all the info. Hope this helps.

        Nov 01, 2014 01:23 PM

        By the way, Bill, I find storage that cannot be compromised easily—-I’ll never put it in a bank deposit box.

          Nov 02, 2014 02:12 AM


          I want to talk about that in Vegas!

      Nov 01, 2014 01:21 PM

      Bill, chris is correct about Apmex—-I’ve bought from them—-the only problem is they keep a record of your purchases and I don’t know if I’m completely comfortable about that. This past week, I bought from a local dealer that is very competitive with their premium—-the dealer is reputable and has been around for about 45 years. If you want to know if their premiums are competitive just check the Apmex site.

        Nov 01, 2014 01:27 PM

        The problem for me is that, taking local delivery here in Japan, means paying a huge import tax, on 1 kg bars anyways. A few US Mint Buffalo’s is OK I think. NTWM has a vault, so I was thinking about that way, as I’m from Seattle. But I don’t want to store gold at home, due to the possibility of being robbed if all heck breaks loose.

        Buying the closed fund CEF is safe I think, as long as brrokers like Schwab stay in business. That last bit has me worried given the fate of Bear Sterns and Lehman Bros.

        If I had no fear of currency collapse, I wouldn’t bother with gold at all – I’d just trade the miners GDX/GDXJ. It’s only the fear of a collapse that I want physical gold as insurance.

        I don’t know – I just wish this all wasn’t happening – off the gold standard, fractional reserve banking, now massive debt, even more massive derivatives, and money printing in the US$, Euro and Yen. And un/under-employment north of 20%. Something’s gonna break, and hard.

          Nov 01, 2014 01:41 PM

          sorry … typo … meant NWTM

          Nov 01, 2014 01:45 PM

          I can really empathize with your situation. If there’s someone you really can trust back in the states with a heavy large safe; that might be the way to go.

            Nov 02, 2014 02:19 AM

            Another very good possibility. These guys are in Cory ‘ s neck of the woods (actually maybe even closer to Al now I think of it – just across the border from him-)
            Casey research has some VERY useful ideas on protecting and international diversification re: personal wealth and bullion

            Nov 02, 2014 02:21 AM

            Also if Singapore is a destination for you some VERY GOOD options there

            Nov 02, 2014 02:06 AM

            All it would take is a gun placed at you or your families head to get you to open up a safe. If you have it at home then you should keep your mouth shut. Unfortunately the vast majority of people who hold PMs have lose lips so it is not a secret that they have PMs. They show their stack on line and think that no one can find out who they are. Also keeping your bullion at a third-party bullion storage facility is not safe.

            Here is a recent story of people keeping their PMs in a private, supposedly high security, vault that was used by people who did not trust banks. Well guess what turned up missing.


            So safe deposit boxes at a good local bank are just as safe as having it in your home or at some third-party bullion storage facility. The only thing difference is the types of risk that would be involved.

          Nov 02, 2014 02:16 AM

          Interesting Bill, Kathy and I are from Seattle also. Here is an interesting coincidence, my best friend growing up was a fellow named Bill!

        Nov 01, 2014 01:59 PM


        You are strange. You will not put your PMs in a safe deposit bank, I assume because you think it is not safe to do so. And that you are a little uncomfortable with buying from APMEX because they keep a record of your purchase, probably because it would make it easier for the government to find out about it. But then you tell people on a public forum that you have PMs which are not in a safe deposit box but probably located in your home or somewhere easily accessible and since you are not anonymous anyone can find out where you live.

          Nov 02, 2014 02:31 PM

          Jmiller, no: I do not store them at home——-I have them in a place apart from anything I own and which there is no easy access for anyone and not even for me—-that’s about all I’ll say.

            Doc………I will not tell him, you keep them in your motor home under the driver’s seat, besides what moron gives APMEX THE same delivery address.

            Nov 03, 2014 03:03 PM

            Interesting “”address” comment Jerry!

          Nov 05, 2014 05:47 PM


          Well a person must be a moron if they think you can order on line or make a phone call to APMEX and that they or the government does not have ways to trace you just because you have a P.O. box. How do you pay? With credit card? Personal check? APMEX has your name and your approximate location. And most people who work at the post office have a pretty good idea when it comes to something heavy and insured being in a small box. They of course have your address on file. There is almost no way to purchase PMs with complete anonymity with out going to a LOT of trouble.

      Nov 02, 2014 02:10 AM


      I like goldmoney because I trust James. No commission for us involved at all just to clarify.

    Nov 01, 2014 01:40 PM

    The new rates for medical rates will be announced Nov 15th in an attempt to not connect it to the election on Tues. More and more bad things will be forth coming
    after the election. Just more cover up by the powers that be.

      Nov 02, 2014 02:17 AM

      We will certainly see, LGC.

    Nov 01, 2014 01:16 PM

    To all the gold trolls on this site… get over yourselves and get your facts straight….Better pawn your trumpets now… know who you are……….

    Nov 01, 2014 01:26 PM

    Just wondering how long before China QEs / prints to lower the Yuan against the Yen – currency war between the two countries with the USD getting stronger against them both?

    Nov 01, 2014 01:34 PM

    Kevin Hogan and the Stanford Cardinals defeat the Oregon Ducks.

      Nov 02, 2014 02:23 AM

      Am in Canada for the weekend and did not see that – thank you. Just illustrates the strength of the PAC 12. Dawgs now have a pretty good shot at 9 and 3.

    Nov 01, 2014 01:58 PM

    I don’t want to take anything away from your fine broadcast but Christine Hughes has a great video and explanation of what is happening in Japan.

      Nov 01, 2014 01:47 PM

      Thanks for this – very informative in plain to understand language.

    Nov 01, 2014 01:43 PM

    Dutch Book

    Nov 01, 2014 01:50 PM

    10k across the board on bayern

    Nov 01, 2014 01:52 PM

    So the Fed is still doing QE?

    How are they managing that. That would be a pretty big deception, even criminal I might add.

    We have lost so much trust in government (maybe rightly so) that everything has become a conspiracy. We seem to be living through some type of Orwellian nightmare. I’ve recently read articles from pretty intelligent guys claiming that the Queen Of England is a lizard and that Micheele Obama is a transvestite.

    Nov 01, 2014 01:59 PM

    Have a read of trader dan’s latest blog entry. As usual, he rails against the conspiracy guys; and this time against eric sprott for dumping $2m of PHY whilst advocating on KWN,’Buy Physical’.

      Nov 01, 2014 01:34 PM

      What the gold bashers can’t seem to figure out is that Sprott sold physical to buy gold shares in the mining companies. He has talked about this several times. This makes him more bullish, not less and certainly doesn’t make him a hypocrite. Dan Norcini used to be level headed but his website lately seems to have been taken over by bashers and has become very one sided. I think all this slamming of people like Eric Sprott is a very bullish sign.

        Nov 02, 2014 02:12 AM

        I just read norcini, he doesn’t sound to me to be “bashing”.
        He give 1 of 2 options, either shares increase or gold decreases.
        Doesn’t sound like “bashing” to me, obviously he doesn’t hold the buy buy buy in high regard tho.
        As for Mr Sprott in comparison to norcini, I think Mr Sprott should have had norcini on his payroll, would have saved him oodles of cash these last few years.

        Should gold go they way Gary talks about, I have a hunch norcini will recognise it and turn “bullish” as they say.
        On the run up to 1800 he sure was, then he turned “bearish” obviously he was correct on both counts. But Sprott? kinda reminds me of the Hunt brohers.

          Nov 02, 2014 02:53 AM

          If you look at the comments, he is definitely slamming Sprott. He actually calls him unethical. The tone of Dan’s website is completely different than a year or two ago. Trader Dan is a chart trader, Sprott is a long term fundamental investor. You can’t compare the two. Dan is successful but it is hard to find anyone with a better long term record than Sprott. I don’t have an axe to grind, I like to get all opinions. I just hate when things get so skewed. I have none of my money with Sprott ….

            Nov 02, 2014 02:45 PM

            What is the point of slamming? When we disagree we simply state that plainly.

            Don’t have to believe anyone you don’t want to. Not real complicated.

            Nov 02, 2014 02:12 PM

            I agree with you Paul.

    Nov 01, 2014 01:00 PM

    When you can throw 53% of the pool out you can Dutch the book

    Nov 01, 2014 01:17 PM

    I don’t know about a lizard…

    Nov 01, 2014 01:12 PM

    Remember those five stages of grief i mentioned several months ago.

    I think acceptance should finally set in for everyone

    Nov 02, 2014 02:34 AM

    Paul w

    Can you detail what sprott has bought with the $2m odd raised from his sale of PHY?

      Nov 02, 2014 02:44 AM

      Sorry, I am not with Sprott so I am not sure….you could look at the holdings that Sprott has but that is normally delayed. He may be buying some resource stocks now that they have been hit so hard.

    Nov 02, 2014 02:10 AM
      Nov 02, 2014 02:29 AM

      Good interview, spot on. Thanks

    Nov 02, 2014 02:20 AM

    One of the reasons Japan’s economy is bogged down is China. The Chinese have been targeting their industry for quite a while and doing a good job of hollowing out much of their higher end manufacturing, the whole world is feeling the effects of China’s industrial expertise. Low cost labor is now becoming a thing of the past as robotic engineering is replacing people and guess who is at the forefront of this new industrial revolution.

      Nov 02, 2014 02:54 AM

      I think robots and AI are the future. I read reports that Japan has been leading the robotics for many years. They got robots used everywhere such as robot servants and care takers, at the worst robot wife. Several friends of mine bought robot vacuum cleaners made in Japan. They are cute. They can clean everywhere and not making mistakes and then, they go back charging themselves. I think China is working on those actively. I just saw a report that a restaurant uses robots as waitress and attracted a lot of people in a southern province. Robots can do a lot of things human don’t want to do or cannot do

      Nov 02, 2014 02:07 AM

      I think they problem of Japan is not demographics as other people think as a hindsight. It is due to the fact that Korea and China took over most of their high, mid and low tier export markets. Japan is very arrogant and do not want to integrate into East Asian economy unless it leads it. Japan also looks down on Korean and Chinese thinking they are inferior and not able to compete with it. They have been trying to control the technical know-how and make sure only transfer the out of date technology to China. So Japan not only did not take advantage of the East Asian boom and actually suffered from it. Japan always has an idea of “get out of Asia and join Europe” and they apparently have achieved it.

    Nov 02, 2014 02:46 AM

    Numismatics, as doc mentioned, neat to collect alright, but having owned retail outlets dealing in “collectables”, I can say that people pay lots when they have money and times are good, their value drops big time when times are hard.
    Excluding extremely rare items, like the mona lisa for example.
    So what I take from Docs experience I would say people are getting shorter on cash.
    Not certain it means more than that.

      Nov 02, 2014 02:35 PM

      BB, I would agree along with the fact that gold prices are dropping and we’re seeing an incipient deflation in a lot of things—-people are going to what cash they have left. Stacks and Bowers have a large collection going up for auction in the spring. They’ll sell it over 11/2 years—-it’s worth about 200 million and it’ll be interesting whether the prices meet the expectation.

        Nov 02, 2014 02:06 PM

        Doc, Im sure you’ve noticed, anything truly rare will fetch higher than expected prices.
        Might have to do with getting out of the dollar? like as Rickards says, art.
        Rare coins for example say only 20k minted, has to be in almost perfect condition to fetch a high price, a mark even minute, and they go low.
        I gave my daughter a coin set only 10k minted, (proof) its not doing much. Maybe some day, but its been over forty years now.
        Gold coins, when are basically going for gold price isn’t much numismatic value. (obvious)
        But geez, for a collector of gold coins, that’s great.

          Nov 02, 2014 02:14 PM

          BB, right now the lower priced PM numismatics are seeing some price pressure but the higher rated PCGS coins are still holding up well. I had an extensive conversation with the president of Stacks and Bowers and it was quite interesting. ULtimately, I believe Rickards will be correct but we might see a deflationary sell-off prior to the value some of these collectibles will see in future years. I believe the best place today is still cash since something not healthy is on the horizon. That’s where I am currently and why I’ve been waiting for the final PM catharsis which I believe we’ve now entered.

            Nov 02, 2014 02:11 PM

            I read that “goldtent” glenfish mentioned.
            Very good work if you ask me.
            The “bloodbath” will happen, I just don’t know if its now or we have a ways to go.
            I like Rickards recommendations too, like you he has cash waiting to go.

            A few years ago, reading all I could, I decided the timeframe was 2020 to 2025.
            So, Turks advice of 5-10% physical seemed wise to me.

            Trading, your grasp is much firmer than mine, I find it fun tho, frustrating but fun.
            But I do believe, we are going to see 10 baggers plus again. Especially in some penny shares.

            And what are pcgs coins,(graded?) Ive seen that before, Im old school when it comes to grading,
            As far as Im concerned there are circulated (various grades) ,uncurculated, brilliantly uncirculated and proof, double struck
            All these numbers do is attempt to count bagmarks, I never had a need for them, I have
            I have always thought the numbers were to sell to people that didn’t understand coins.
            Also, I have noticed over the last few years that many people grading don’t have a clue.
            certificates or no.

    Nov 02, 2014 02:11 PM

    Al and cory,

    There is a gentlemen that goes by the name of plunger who has recently finished a three part series of ” The three phases of precious metals bear market”.

    He is well tuned in and has what I believe really good/honest material. He post’s on the only other website I frequent which is “Goldtent”. Goldtent is a website who host some very good chartist/ta/cycle followers. There mojo is open minded and non bias. Post what you want when you want. It has a similar following as us. Mostly it prides itself in charts. Something Matt who appreciate.

    I personally think you should interview plunger. His work is fantastic and so far has a good record. Get your team to look him up and read what he has posted. I find it truly fascinating. I would appreciate doc,gary’s and the rest of the guys views on his work and current stance. It may not be popular as to bullish cap on etc but I know you are an open guy and look for honest material.



      Nov 02, 2014 02:33 PM

      Thanks for the link glen, I’m off to do some reading there.

        Nov 02, 2014 02:56 PM

        We will be contacting the guy Glenfidish suggested we contact.

        Nov 02, 2014 02:17 PM


        Np I know we are all students as well as investors.


          Nov 02, 2014 02:31 PM

          Yes we certainly are Glen!

          Nov 02, 2014 02:30 PM

          Thanks again glen,
          After spending some time reading there I’ve now bookmarked it for future refence.
          A much appreciated link.

      Nov 02, 2014 02:43 PM

      Wow Glen, thanks that info was great!! I’m certainly a plunger fan!

        Nov 02, 2014 02:20 PM



      Nov 02, 2014 02:47 PM

      Thanks Glen, Cory and I will do that.

        Nov 02, 2014 02:18 PM

        Big Al,

        Thank you very much for taking the time and looking into it. I think it will only add value.

    Nov 02, 2014 02:50 PM

    Re: Segs 7&8
    No time to read the 200!! comments here. It sounds like both Doc and Gary are expecting soon a short rally in gold to exceed at least somewhat the $1180-$1200 area.

    My limited experience makes me question that. That $1180 seemed to be major chart support. Will not it now be major resistance? My experience makes me think that $1180-$1200 will now be a high end of a new trading range, barring some “sea change” that I cannot foresee.

    Looking at the current HUI/gold ratio, when this bloodbath ends is it not more likely that gold miners will surge while gold stays down at this price level? Maybe that is what they meant and I misinterpreted.

    Anyone with way more experience than I care to chime in? Could we really so soon break back above $1180?? Anything is possible, but ……

      Nov 02, 2014 02:00 PM

      My money is on that we do, Derek. We shall see.

    Nov 02, 2014 02:33 PM

    Looks like go,d is. Going to have another $50 sell off tonight.

    Those who bought gold to preserve your wealth how’s that working out for you.

    To all gold holders, welcome to that class of citizenry known as the poor

    Nov 02, 2014 02:43 PM

    As Yogi Berra would say “It’s getting late early”

    The only question now is just how much blood will be spilled.

    The carcasses of gold bulls will fill the streets. Mass graves.

    I will be there

      Nov 02, 2014 02:26 PM

      Yep James, at this point, 5:25 Pacific Standard time it is looking good for your predictions. Good for you, not good for others!

    Nov 02, 2014 02:46 PM

    I really hope we get the final washout for the miners in the next 3 weeks instead of having to see a rally here and then a washout well into the spring. Let’s just get it over with —-the momentum and strength indicators continue to be pointed negatively and I believe it would be a positive to get the miner move down sooner then later. A good example would be a staid old silver producer like Hecla that has tremendous liquidity and a lot of silver in the ground. They plan on purchasing back a considerable number of their shares. They’ve been in existence for close to 120 years and over the last 45 years have rarely seen a price level of less then $1.50. We’re currently at $2.30 and with an ongoing selloff for the PMs over the next 3 weeks; Hecla should hit close to the level of $1.50. The mines and the stock are not going away and those that take a position may have to wait but it’ll some day rise from the ashes again. There are other stocks that will outlast this carnage that some day will also rise again. You may have to wait for awhile but purchasing when the blood is in the street and holding your nose is often rewarded well. But pick your stocks carefully—–do your due diligence.

      Nov 02, 2014 02:28 PM

      Holding your nose is good advice, Doc!

      Nov 02, 2014 02:57 PM

      Doc, please keep sharing your odeas. Thanks.

        Nov 02, 2014 02:30 PM

        Pretty sure that Doc will be doing that!

        Nov 02, 2014 02:35 PM

        I think there are more “good” goldstocks than the average guy can buy.
        I agree with Doc about HL, another along the same line would be Teck, 08? it went down to 3.25, hit about $60 if I recall. But copperfox, 5 cents to about $2.50

          Nov 02, 2014 02:12 PM

          BB; thanks for bringing Teck to my attention again. I had forgotten about it—-watched it rise from nothing to the $60 in the past—-I had a chance to purchase it back then at a low price and was kicking myself for not doing it later. Maybe we’ll get a second chance.

            Nov 02, 2014 02:17 PM

            Kind funny, I never bought it iether but my daughter said it was the one to buy.

            Nov 02, 2014 02:30 PM

            Out of the mouths of babes! (Regardless of age!)

      Nov 02, 2014 02:24 PM


      As much as I wish the same, I believe we will only have a bounce very soon that will give us 4-8 weeks of upward movement. I think we are eventually headed lower next summer or fall. The final low in 2015..

    Nov 02, 2014 02:25 PM

    Al it is not good for me. I am literally losing a fortune.

    Gold failed completely to preserve wealth.

    It is a disgrace

      Nov 02, 2014 02:36 PM

      Don’t count, or perhaps in this case not count, your chickens quite yet.

      James, this is turning out to be a very interesting Sunday night is it not!

    Nov 02, 2014 02:18 PM

    You havnt lost until you sell, gold will go back up.
    Nice to know when tho.

    Nov 03, 2014 03:41 AM

    Monday morning now in North America with gold up to $1172.
    The Banking Cabal has given the world another golden opportunity.
    I will take them up on their offer and buy some physical metal tomorrow morning in Asia.I am sure the Chinese and Russians are laughing at the Japanese.

      Nov 03, 2014 03:28 AM

      Morning Matt,

      So far this morning has been just fine!

    Nov 03, 2014 03:18 AM

    Looked at the Goldtent website Glen recommended. Take away is that we now start the annihilation phase, with hui going to 86 and gdx to the 9 to 12 zone. Could very well be.

    Nov 03, 2014 03:20 AM


    Just a reminder to read all three phases of plungers work just in case you read only part 3. Again just another valuable piece of information that kinda makes sense from the other side of the fence. At the end of the day will all do our own investments and these are not investment advice they are solely information that add value.


    long term portfolio=Intact fully in
    trading portfolio=sidelines and this market is not allowing me in.

    Why don’t i short? Never tried it but more specifically i don’t like having a margins account.

      Nov 03, 2014 03:34 AM

      Glenfidish. How long have you been reading Plunger and is he only saying this recently or since a few years ago? I read his part III article but I don’t see a reason why the annihilation phase has to happen. It is conluded based on poeple’s emotion but most of the time emotion is the worst at the bottom. And he cannot get information several years ago. The worst may have happened. I have sold some mining equities not I am bearish but I feel some of the miners cannot survive and I don’t know which ones.

        Nov 03, 2014 03:51 AM

        As Glen says, read the 3 parts to fully understand his message. The annihilation phase, or capitulation is how bear markets end. I agree with everything he says except I don’t see this phase extending over a 1 to 2 year period. We have started the capitulation phase last week. It could end in the next few weeks, or as Gary suggests a rally may ensue with the final plunge next summer. The 1 – 2 year scenario plunger describes does not make sense to me.

        Nov 03, 2014 03:53 AM


        Starting reading on plunger about 2-3 months back I believe. He wrote phase 1-2 before this recent bloodshed we are having. He had said this would happen prior to happening but he did say he need conformation first and he got it i believe recently. So his calls have been good to me so far.

        The only question we all have here is do we continue down without some type of rally or do we get a bounce then later on re-visit the 1000/1125?


          Nov 03, 2014 03:21 AM

          Thanks. This is what I thought. This is more or less like gold bulls predicting the rising phases, one phase at a time. I believe that the bear phase from 2011 and 2012 is justified. Gold and silver reached a level which is way ahead of itself so it has to pull back and correct. There was manipulation pattern you could see but fundamentals justified the decline. It is the second phase after 2013 I did not see. I thought QE should boost the gold and silver price, particularly after a good correction. Since I was prepared for manipulation so I left 150K Canadian dollar cash on my account and now I almost used it up with 12K left and I have to resort to the old trick of swapping stocks.

          I think the bear market is pretty severe especially considering the massive money expansion by every central banks. There are over 4-5 times more money in the world after 5 short years. The metal price are back to pre-QE level. This is rediculous. Pretty soon the mine closure and physical demand will force the price up. I read an article in Chinese saying the buying surprised the shops and they sold out gold bars so they have to put in a back order not knowing when they can get it. The demand is obviously in the high season. It just needs to take time since physical demand does not have leverage. I think the FED (BIS) is racing with time.

            Nov 03, 2014 03:36 AM

            BTW, people in China usually don’t buy bars. They buy jewelry. Running out bars is very surprising.

      Nov 03, 2014 03:33 AM

      I agree with you about shorting.

    Nov 03, 2014 03:21 AM


    Do you know anything good or have you ever spoken with hecla ceo? Does he have a sound record..

    Thanks don’t know much about them

    Nov 03, 2014 03:22 AM


    Same question i asked doc to you regarding teck?


    Nov 03, 2014 03:18 AM

    Did Al did you or didn’t you put words in Avi’s mouth at the tail end of the interview.
    you’re putting spins or interpretation of what people say on your show that’s making me quite dizzy. .
    Statements similar to “you were dead right” or gee “you were so accurate” or you “nailed it right on the head”. When in reality they didn’t.

    Nov 03, 2014 03:47 AM