Amnesty situation and societal issues pertaining to investing
Hour 1:
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Hour 2:
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Hour 1:
- Segment 1-2: Glen Downs, Chief of Staff to Congressman Walter Jones, discusses the amnesty situation introduced by the President.
- Segment 3: Craig Bergman, President of The Robert Morris Group discusses the amnesty situation.
- Segment 4: Bob Moriarty of 321 Gold discusses politics and of course economics.
- Segment 5: Al, Cory and Richard Postma, AKA DOC, talk with Brian Skanderbeg, President and CEO of the most recent company we are following, Claude Resources.
- Segment 6: Dan Kurz* from Naples Asset Management discusses societal issues pertaining to investing.
- Segment 7 -8: We discuss what happened and what could happen in the financial markets with Richard Postma, AKA Doc, Gary Savage of The Smart Money Tracker and Chris Temple of The National Investor.
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Billy; check out my answer on your yesterday post. If you want different info, let me know. Doc.
Billy, I might add that the longer time frame charts are the most important ones—the monthly charts don’t yet show a breakdown in the structural foundation of the dow or the s&p. However, the monthly chart for the russell 2000 is starting to show some vulnerability—-specifically in the momentum and strength indicators. They’re all heading south. It also appears they will continue to head south in the near months. Interestingly, in 2007, just before heading south, the russell 2000 double topped but did not put in new highs while the dow and s&p did put in new highs.
Billy; just another comment. I mentioned how high the conventional markets are above the 25 year MA. Another way of looking at its’ loftiness is to consider the long term monthly trend since 1871. It’s based on inflation-adjusted s&p composite data from Robert Shiller’s site. November of 2014 marks the first month in its’ entire history that the s&p is 90% above its’ long term trend line. If you look at Robert Shiller’s inflation adjusted figures; over the last 16 years we have never seen higher markets above his horizontal “par” line in his 144 years of data. Just to give you some semblance of comparison, the % over his par line in 1929 before the crash was 74%. In December of 1999 the top was 148%; in 2007 the top was 85%. We’re currently 91% above his inflation adjusted par line. Why the abnormal heights over the last 16 years?—–MONEY PRINTING. So your risk is rising if you get into this market currently. Can it go on for awhile yet? You bet as we see in the 1999 top. However, I believe the russell 2000 is starting to give us a warning.
Billy, just another comment—–the total value of the market as compared to GNP is very high—–above 120%. Most folks would say that a roaring value for purchasing shares is when the market capitalization is 80%.
Doc,
I’m going to disagree with you. The divergence in the Russell would seem to logically be a warning sign, but this is another one of those market quirks that doesn’t stand up to historical testing.
Actually these divergences have been very positive for the market going forward in the past.
The Russell’s relative strength diverged from 1990 to 92 with no detrimental effects. It did so again from 94 to 98 and we all know what the markets did during that time. It did it again from 2004 to 2006 and that wasn’t a top.
So based on the historical data this divergence in the Russell is more likely signally a strong move is impending.
With every CB in the world printing I think it’s a mistake to try and pick a top in the markets until we get a true parabolic bubble phase. Every episode of printing since 2000 has ended with a bubble. Why would this one be any different. I would urge traders to wait for the bubble before trying to pick a top.
I’m not attempting to pick a top; just a warning to people about all the data that is flashing red lights. According to the monthly momentum indicators, there is no evidence of a breakdown yet in the dow or S&P but there is in the russell 2000. Whether this reverses or not in the future, time will tell. I do know the odds are that the momentum and strength indicators for the russell will continue to head south next month in December.
For me I believe that the bottom in the gold market will happen just before the stock market tops out and I am certain now that we haven’t seen the bottom. I believe we still have a downward movement to come in the gold market one that makes me think that although I am on the right track I have not boarded the train. All markets can be very cruel and I don’t like to get hurt. The total washout in the mining juniors is still to come so I will stay focused but not involved.
Machine Gun!
I believe your on to something. How it all comes together im still trying to fit the pieces together like the rest of us. I believe that JJ has been on the ball at times with his timing. So have some of us as well. There is no doubt the marty armstrong has been the best timer of all of them and im being 100%truthful. I don’t follow the guy literally as he has been known to get you in late and out early but his advice is second to non. Marty wins for short term/longer term advise. There are many other Gurus who win for longer term advice but will kill your portfolio in the short term. I don’t even waste a breath on those anymore. Learned my lesson.
What im 80% sure of is that this recent move in gold/miners is the real deal. It will have legs for a short term 6-8 weeks possibly 12 pushing it. Gary is on the ball I believe. IMO JJ got in at a good time but jumped out a tad early that is why he is here stating it’s going down. I believe we are 3-12 days from that happening. The indicators will tell you and the swiss vote is my signal.
cheers
glen
DT,
We have about as many confirmations as we can get that gold has formed an intermediate bottom, so if we are going to get a washout/bankruptcy phase it’s going to have to wait until next summer. Right now gold should rally for 6-8 weeks even if it is destined to go back down. And if the huge volume is signalling a final bear market low then the rally will last for 12-15 weeks and then make a higher high above $1347 and a higher low above $1130 next summer.
Here’s what I’m looking at:
A Dow theory bullish confirmation. Almost every bear market in history starts with at least a non confirmation and we don’t have one yet.
The advance decline line will almost certainly confirm the new highs next week if we get any more rally. Almost all bear markets top long after the A/D line has been diverging for months. We don’t have that yet.
Usually the banks and housing will diverge for months before a market tops. Housing stocks just broke out to new highs and the banks aren’t far behind.
The new highs are expanding, confirming the the rally is healthy and most stocks and sectors are participating. Once energy joins the party this will just increase.
The only real warning sign is the divergence in the Russell, and like I pointed out this isn’t really a warning sign historically. In the past this has led to very positive returns going forward.
Gary,
I agree. For the record your one of the best if not the best cycle timer I have seen. For short term you are very good. And what I meant by telling dt was 3-12 days a corrective move and then back up. I believe we will have two if not three moves like that. moves that stretch up into and above 50 dma and 200dma. We will get one lower low and i do believe it will break 1000.
Doc.
would you thoroughly explain to me or us. Two things are here, the credit spreads and yield curves that analysts using them in the markets to decide whether there is liquidity problems or not. want to know how to relate that? thank you. p.s. read this in bob hoye’s newsletter.
Here across the Pond we too have politicians who play at politics, but who no longer represent the views of their electorate. It’s hardly a no-brainer to realise that the migrant problem is THE major reason why the star of Nigel Farage of the UKIP party continues to ride high. Two recent by-elections have been called on account of two former Conservative MPs who having defected to UKIP have been roundly re-elected as UKIP’s first two MPs. Given that we have a General Election next summer PM David Cameron who once decried UKIP as being made up of loonies and lefties is having to eat crow big time.
Like the U.S., the U.K. has been regarded by ‘aliens’ (to use Cory’s unfortunate term!) as the land of milk and honey. The poor here have cars, flat-screen TV, smartphones, etc, whilst emergency housing is made readily available. Furthermore even if migrants aren’t welfare scroungers (and many are not) they will readily snuffle up jobs on minimum or sub-minimum wages, given that they have learned to live by their wits in ways that many UK welfare dependents have not.
The importation of third world immigrants serves many purposes but it is not by the consent or for the benefit of the indigenous population of any nation. Instead it is allowed by special interests in order to achieve goals that are not really in the best interests of the founding population.
Completely agree Steven.
Latest estimate at least according to today’s Daily Express is that UKIP could win 40 seats at next year’s election – enough to be kingmakers perhaps?
Andrew, who wouldn’t want to live in The UK and drink beer in those pubs and watch tely, man do those people ever have in made. Play the fiddle while London burns. For those who read this and don’t know what the fiddle in England means, it is collecting welfare from the government.
Fiddle, Faddle, Fuddy Duddy!
I completely agree with you Reverend in that many of those folks are not welfare scrounging. I saw that first hand in Palm Springs and I see it first hand where we live.
I was pleasantly surprised to hear about Claude Resources, since I have traded in the shares in the past, and maintain an interest in Saskatchewan mining. One company to exercise your due diligence over(and it will be sorely tested) might be Golden Band Resources.(GBN.V) The properties are a consolidation of all of the former SMDC(Cameco) and Placer Dome exploration properties over previous decades. The company may have raised capital by themselves by escrowing production in the first phase of commercial production. All pertinent info can be found on Agoracom.com
Fran Six. I personally not only like the fundamentals currently, but I love the chart pattern—–very similar to 2 other companies I’ve bought shares in—-one of which is doing very well. You’re going to have to be patient on this one for awhile.
For my part, I believe you are best positioned starting a mine at surface, you have at least 20 years of operations until grades go below a cash flow positive threshold. But gold prices may see a re-rating against currencies as governments attempt to devalue, as just about any mine in Canada became profitable after devaluation in the ’30’s.
Speaking of devaluation in the 1930’s. How about devaluation in the 1970″s?
Here is an interesting table showing the percent gain of Canadian Miners in the late-70’s. I can dream of 10,000% gains, can’t I?
http://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/1970CAGoldRushCharts.php
danke
Here’s one that I mentioned here in August, 2013. I still like it a lot, both technically and “boots on the ground.”
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CEM.V&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p19031048845&a=377448544
Hour One comments:
“You can’t deport 4 or 5 million people.” Yes, you can! It’s called enforcing the law until the lawbreakers leave voluntarily! Think how many people are arrested daily for minor crimes like vehicular seat belts, adolescent curfew, etc.
Our representative republic is not set up where the executive can ignore the other two branches of our government. It is the elements of the executive (CIA, FBI, HS, TSA, Customs) preying upon the people and the representatives to change the country as they see fit.
The power of our corrupted executive along with the corrupting power of the international corporations (fascism) is seen in our non-free market.
Common Mr Pace,
Logistically impossible. This travesty, by the way, started a long time ago.
Let’s be fair and sensible!
“… 4 or 5 million…” in your dreams – there are over 50 million Latino illegals squating in the U.S. today. Note well even northern communities which are flooded with them.
The repugs will turn yellow on this issue, as is their function – all talk, no play. Nothing like the highly successful 1953 Operation Wetback will be forthcoming.
RESIST !!!
correx: 1954
B, I simply do not understand why laws are not enforced.
I agree with jhpace…………Yes you can…………
there are enough OFFICERS, state, local,federal…..to control and institute deportation.
There is no LEADERSHIP IN WASHINGTON DC…..
SEG 3………GREAT COMMENTS…….FROM CRAIG………SPOT ON……….
He is a very interesting guy!
Really? I never realized that! Darn, there goes my tongue again.
Well Jerry,. I suppose nothing is impossible!
The republican party will eventually break into two parties. The neo-cons will never support Rand Paul.
I agree with you on that one Dan
Yes, dan, and this will be the excuse they use for Clinton’s victory.
The immigration executive order is about accountability and going back to a republic. It’s just one step of many that has to be done while we merge away from corporate control any to the rule of law.
Don’t believe the spin doctors that work with congress, or the main stream news.
Funny how our congress sat back as Obama went into Libya, stole the gold, and opened a central bank that now controls the oil and assets. All without congressional approval!
The only reason congress is mad about the immigration EO is because they own companies that hire the illegal workers and it gets in their back pocket! PERIOD!
It’s all about the money! These gold are corporate officers. They are not statesmen!
They work for them selves,, not me and you!
You don’t have a real government or constitution! The act of 1871 took your rights away!
And if you don’t believe that, seek a good doctor that can safely remove your head from your ass!
Typo* these are corporate officers
Here’s your sign
And why have we not closed the Mexican border?
If terrorism was so real, you might think after 911, we would have done that?
Who profits from all of the drug smuggling across the border? Could it be those that control the heroin trade in Afghanistan?
ONE Problem: AFRICA FOR THE AFRICANS, ASIA FOR THE ASIANS, WHITE COUNTRIES FOR EVERYBODY??
That is the crime. It is white Genocide.Destruction of a people. IT is state violence. Politicians past and present must be held accountable. Go GET THEM. ‘Just obeying orders’ is not an excuse. Well I had the votes— is not an excuse. PROSECUTE them.
Do you wish to spend the rest of your life supporting swarms of non-citizens streaming across our borders and voting for you to give them more of your earnings?
Translation: The state hides behind its guns and use of force while it avoids accountability to the population for the creation of multiculturalism, White genocide and state over-reach into everything.
The current political system will NOT resolve these issues peacefully. So what will it take?? Stealing my money through passing ‘laws’ is STILL just stealing.
Pomp and force does not change this. So I ask one question -what can do to destroy this system, How can I be a negative, destructive force against these parasites. A paragon for their ‘civic culture of diversity and PC coercion’—- NO WAY.
What a Thanksgiving gift for the USA for Obama AND the GOP.
Dear Bob;
Good to hear your voice again,I listen very closely to your opinions.Drop by more more often,
To the immigration theme:
Moral is NOT when someone decides to take my money and give it to someone who’s looking for a free handout. So it was immoral of Obama to confiscate the American people’s money and give it away for buying political power, not moral as was suggested and then you can throw in the illegality on top of it.
One of the biggest problems is they absolutely need to establish term limits for congressmen and others, this is the only way you will get elected officials to respond to the needs of the electorate, in the case of congressmen a three term limit would serve the people best, but the executive branch should remain at two terms.
Jobs for elected officials should not be allowed to turn into permanent employment and we all know why. The talk about taking the executive branch to court is just nonsense as courts can be controlled and besides political representatives are there to do a job not pass the buck.
I agree regarding term limits.
Congressman Walter Jones made a good point in regards to Obama’s handling of immigration that is it is easier to tear down a law then it is to put a new one in it’s place.
If you want to have a society where people are productive and happy you must establish a rule of law where there are distinct parameters and humans aren’t allowed to do whatever they want; old codes can’t be broken down before new ones are established.
so is Al buying is silver coins from Midas? That can’t be right or is it?
I will be looking into it Key lime. Do you know something that I don’t know about Midas?
yeah you could buy probably buy it cheaper from Kitco, APMEX or Provident if you are buying pure bullion. . That company seems a lot like some companies you call up to buy gold or silver bullion and then a sales man comes on and pressures you to buy a high marked up numismatic coin. Just my opinion.
J
Many thanks for your response, Key lime. I plan to deal directly with the owner who I know.
I do appreciate your response.
Chris: If the future unfolds for the Dow + S&P as you describe it then the Dow/Gold ratio tells you that gold will eventually be magnificfent. I just do not know what kind of world we will have.
Yes, Laurence, gold likely will; as will be just about everything as all fiat currencies become even more debauched.
Al; Maybe I missed it but I did not hear anyone mention that this weekend is the anniversary of the JFK assasination. I remember last year at this time.I was watching the PBS Newshour that nite and not once did they even mention (1) who killed JFK? or(2) why? My heart sank as I thought that PBS had gone MSM.
I personally would like to forget that tragic event.
I believe PBS is MSM. Lots of corporate sponsorship. NPR too.
Paul Rosenberg recommends this as the best documentary he’s seen on JFK:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9gBxMJFQd04
Objectively, that event appears to have been a coup d’etat, and it’s reasonable to assume those groups that seized power still have it.
I never understand why Obama is perceived as some kind of crazy radical. Outside the US everyone sees him just as a normal center-right president. Pro-Wallstreet and practising American Austerity. If Congress did something constructive instead of fighting him tooth & nail since his first day in office the Deporter-in-Chief wouldn’t have need to resort to such ‘drastic’ measures IMO.
Socialist/fascists will look at another of the same as being normal.
Excellent Jerry; right to the point.
AJ….he is a crazy radical to more than half the US population
It is true that now sixty percent of folks do not seem to support him. There are a lot of reasons for this in my opinion. I will say that he comes across as being very arrogant and that is a huge fault and an impediment in trying to accomplish anything. Pretty tough to be constructive when all you do is make others defensive and angry!
This is probably the best available chart to describe the rally in the stock market. US Treasuries are flooding the system, preventing negative rates as you might see in Europe or Japan. But the rates depicted are 10 times the actual rate.
Thanks Fran
Compare with Marketwatch.com. Click on 5-day chart:
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/3_MONTH?link=MW_story_quote
My guess is that the monthly close will see rates into negative territory. This is the ultimate devaluation trick.
Negative rates? You really think so?
Negative rates were only a matter of treasury bill futures being bid up beyond a certain point in past instances. With the chart showing 0.003%, you can take that to mean less than zero, but we’ll only find out after the fact.
So, as far as the presidents actions this past week go, Can I assume that Al and others on the panel are in agreement that it is the moral thing to do the illegal thing?
Interesting point but that is certainly not how the comment was meant to be taken!
I understand how the point was meant to be taken and I am somewhat inclined to agree. I am just concerned about the whole political process lately, or more likely, frustrated.
That is two of us Dano!
Al, it does not take guts to violate the constitution. It takes arrogance. President Obama always gets what he wants. In fact, now that Congress is controlled by R’S he will get more of what he wants via executive order. All of these pundits are looking at his poor poll numbers assuming Obama cares. He cares about his agenda of changing America & I think he deems himself a smashing success…and you know what, he is if you use his measuring stick.
I cannot disagree with you Chico. That is why I have never supported him. My comment about guts had to do with these actions hurting the democratic party. It did in the last election and it will in 2016. That will damage his legacy I firmly believe!
The arrogance of a president who has no more elections to fight, and whose mantra ‘Yes we can’ ride roughshod over the Constitution for which there are no reprisals.
Andrew,
A friend of mine is a retired superior court judge told me he thought the action was legal.
I am not an attorney. All I know is that I thought there were laws preventing illegal immigration. If there are no laws why we’re they all given amnesty? Go figure!
Homer Simpson slap to the forehead Al, DOH!
Did someone figure it out?
Veteran S&P Futures Trader: “I Am 100% Confident That Central Banks Are Buying S&P Futures”
A Zero Hedge reader, and long-time futures trader, shares his views on the evolution of the “market”, where it was, where it is, and where it may be going.
Here’s an interesting article—-I probably like it since it’s very close to my investing philosophy:
http://www.kitco.com/news/2014-11-21/Major-Gold-Silver-Bear-Says-Market-On-The-Verge-Of-An-Uptrend.html
Remember the ‘commidities supercycle?’
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-triple-bubble-points-to-long-slide-for-commodities-2014-11-20
It’a amazing how everyone will hop on board for opinions stating the same feelings on a subject. Remember when the commodity supercycle was never going to end due to the demand from China and the ever increasing difficulty of finding commodities. Also, the burgeoning and growing middle classes of China and India were also going to supportive in the long run. Now, everyone is slowly coming to the realization that commodities are done. They’ll walk away from them and we’ll go into a period of somnolence. But it will again rise from the ashes some day. Cycles come and cycles go.
Commodities will be in demand in The US as they struggle to keep their crumbling infrastructure alive, America is falling apart at the seems after decades of total neglect.
DT; good point.
“Somnolennc”
Just an ignorant guy from the West!
Al, If you’re referring to me I live in central Canada not the west.
I don’t believe I was Machine Gun. Don’t you live in Toronto?
If you are watching sixty minutes tonight 7 PM EST, they will be hosting a show on Americas crumbling infrastructure most notably roads and bridges.
I live it everyday Machine Gun!
We still need to get the monetary phase of the commodity cycle. This is the phase that is driven by currency devaluation rather than demand. This phase is still in front of us.
Eventually all the insane money printing we’ve seen over the last 6 years will come out of the stock and bond market and go into the commodity markets giving us a final secular bull market top in commodities.
Personally, I agree Gary.
No doubt about it.
I’d be amazed if the Swiss vote passes – as much as I want it to – it would be great but sanity never seems to prevail – hope it doesn’t hit gold too much if it doesn’t pass – next couple of weeks will be very interesting!
Sanity is not so prevalent today, Tim!
MEMO
FROM: I. C. Clearly
TO; B. Real
RE: Full Disclosure
It has come to my attention that the technology exists and is in place to allow web cam video access to Fort Knox, NY Federal Reserve and West Point gold holdings.
Since this access can occur with the flick of a switch I have to ask the following.
Would not allowing video access to our gold holdings silence the rumors that the gold holdings do not exist as reported.
END MEMO
Makes sense to me Dennis M!
that is a big DITTO…………
SEG….3…..you need to have CRAIG ON MORE OFTEN…………………..JMHO….
We plan on it, Jerry.
SEG 4……………..BOB M……..JUST RANGE THE BELL………..remember, Bob called the top in silver at $49…………
Rang from range………sorry……………thinking of range bound……..
NEWS……Yuan trading center to be set up in LA……..China and LA working together….A CENTER FOR TRADE…Sinclair…today……..
I don’t agree with Bergman’s response to the lawlessness issue. A failure to execute the law is lawlessness, because the President has the Constitutional duty to take care to execute the law. Suspending execution of the law is not a legitimate option available to the President except, arguably, in a national emergency. Al, you are correct. We have laws, and they are meant to be followed.
There is no rule of law if the law does not apply to everyone all the time.
“The essence of tyranny is not iron law. It is capricious law.”
-Christopher Hitchens
Admiralty law = tyranny
Common law = liberty
The bad news is, we’ve been under admiralty law ( control by the queen ) for almost 100 years. The good news is,, that’s going bye bye….!!
On the other hand.It may be bad news!Marshall law in a free country only provokes to challenge authority!And swing back.At least we have no Ebola cases in a while.Some bio may even be coming up with a vaccination.But back again,”I will try any I’ll to find the cure”!OK Who’s next?
Doc.
Would you please talk about the conventional market on your view according to your charts? daily,weekly,monthly and 25yrs chart were mentioning about. thank you twice. very useful.