Welcome back…Bird…I hope you & the family are well.

Hi Bird,

Good to see you back :)…Always nice for you to come in here and balance things out. Im holding you to lower prices as I personally want to load up on shares. At this point its all about share accumulation and at cheaper prices for me. Kinda like what doc is doing.

cheers mate

For sure Bird, WELCOME BACK!

Everybody talks about “this buying opportunity”. Apparently they missed the bus the first time around in 2001-2007, and this government/corporate manipulation is allowing them to make up for past mistakes.

What about the guy that is retired and needing additional funds? What about the underemployed and unemployed who put their savings into bullion and precious metal mining stocks? Who eschewed equities because they (rightfully) believed they were a bubble, but failed to anticipate a fully-backed government endorsement after 2008? This is the minority who saved and acted according to fundamentals, and is being punished for it ever since the summer of 2011. Everybody still gets to laugh at their “foolishness”.

Is this the best we can do as individuals? Live off of someone else’s coattails, knowing that government and those in power cannot be fought against? Give in to the corruption, because we need to put food on the dinner table? Join the herd in pushing the Dow Jones to 20,000?

I’m tired of being part of the “targeted” minority of those who did not put their eternal faith in the US Dollar, with bullion and mining stocks being driven down, and the “targeted” majority who are paying increasing costs and increasing taxes.

I have to agree with you Bob. Not sure about the six month time frame though.

Great show and great comments from all. Avi’s section was particularly interesting about Investor Sentiment versus Fundamentals and how both trail or lead the markets.

Birdman, great to have u back online,!!

+1

CFS yes it is. This is the first post in the comments section of the article.

Fantastic post and since everyone here is so adept to spam these days this was published earlier this morning at TFMetals Report and was sent to ZH by a loyal turdite.

March on Turd’s Army…Keep Stacking.

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/6425/new-paul-mylchreest

The layout of the article at Zerohedge is easier to read.

I have to agree with all of your comments CFS.

We must share some wine at some point in the future at The Oakville Grocery in Heilsberg.

Bankster Vigilante,

I completely agree with your comment. I simply cannot understand how or why this rubbish is still walking the streets.

Police is out of control in US. Everytime I go there I see massive police presence and naturally fearful. There is also report of confiscation of tourists’ money by the police. The violence is not only towards black. An old UK professor was beaten to death by police simply because he J walked. By comparison Canadian police is very professional and Chinese police is far kinder.

Sally,

In 2008/2009 first quarter..Were I think we are currently..The dollar rallied and trended sideways with miners while equities were correcting. So yes they can both decouple from equities

+1 with Glenfidish re: Avi and that he knows what he’s talking about.

GL investing to all.

LPG

Thanks Glen.

By the way, I had a Glenfiddich at the club earlier this week. Great single malt. Much better than Glenlivet in my opinion.

I just want to add that although I see loonie getting to 77/80 target I can’t confirm that there is a gap at 95 for us dollar..Matt,doc anyone can you confirm this on a chart?

I have the dollar going as high as 92/93 possibly. I believe that is where the neckline is from long term chart.

Couple of comments Glen,

First of all I did not share your gains on the sell side in 2008 and 2009. My year to crow was 2010. So far 2011 to now have not been great in the miners.

Secondly, in my opinion people who trade junior mining stocks really need to go to the Canadian exchanges and work with a broker who can effectively handle those trades. I personally have accounts in both Canada (Haywood and Canaccord) and in the U.S. (Sprott Global)

Hi Glen… one thought about Loonie holding strong lately is that Burger King is buying Loonie from market to purchase Tim Horton…. have you happened to factor in already in your analysis?

Thanks CSF, did not know that!

Thanks CFS

I have no idea why that happened.

If it happens again, please send me your e-mail again and Sarah will take care of it.

This is a chart of the dying CDNX.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CDNX

Dan, this is one of the few companies I would even be looking at currently. What I look at is minimal debt, a producing mine, positive cash flow and ongoing exploration to expand their reserve base. Also all in sustaining costs below the price of the asset. In my opinion, this company currently meets a lot of my guidelines. Also, they’re planning on ramping up production in the first half of 2015. Furthermore, the technicals look like their ready to start turning in the near future. This isn’t investment advice. Personally, this company is going on my watch list.

Indeed I do have a few new stories. Positive ones too. The boom in my part of East Africa is accelerating rapidly right now. It looks to me they will hit a critical mass of infrastructure development in about two years time if the world economy does not derail to slow them down first.

From an investment perspective the time to be here on the ground floor has already arrived and there is now some industry consolidations underway that is a sign of maturing in the business environment. There is sure no sense of economic gloom here though. Certainly nothing like what is happening in the West.

The economy is buoyant and growing in leaps while inflation remains subdued below 10%. A great deal of job creation is happening now and textiles/shoes have become key industries almost overnight as the Chinese, Turks and Indians have moved in with force.

Very interesting stuff going on over here actually so with luck I will be able to post some stories from the front lines in the next weeks. It will maybe be a break from hearing all the bad news from everywhere else!

This is a Yin and Yang thing though. When an economy falters in one part of the world it just makes sense that it would be growing somewhere else as capital shifts to happier hunting grounds and finds better opportunity.

One thing is certain….we cannot lump all the Emerging Markets into a single basket. That would be a big mistake and East Africa’s development trajectory is proof that some countries are bucking the global trend deflation and slow growth trend.

Se méfier la lolitas!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zfXBNQMj2SE 😉

Yes Matthew,
The big companies are also currently ripping the guts out of the smaller companies over here in the Iron Ore sector.
It happens in every sector.

Thanks Matthew/Skeeta,

2 more things:
FIRST THING: Re: the US+KSA vs. Russia on oil:
I think Al misunderstood me re: KSA-USA.
I did say that in the 1980’s, the US + Canada and with the help of the Saudis helped bring the USSR down (via lower oi + gold prices).
But re: what’s going on CURRENTLY, I didn’t say the US and KSA are working together against Russia.
What I mentioned is that the US are happy to stick it 1) to Russia and 2) to Venezuela, while KSA is IMHO happy to give to A) the US shale oil producers as well as B) to Iran. I was shifting US/KSA back and forth so maybe this led to this confusion.
Personally, I am NOT SURE KSA is working alongside the US to weaken Russia. I’m not sure at all. But at the same time, I can’t rule it out.

As Richard/Doc mentioned quite rightly on a podcast on Friday, it is no mystery that the relationship between the US and KSA is not exactly what it “used to be”.
I just personally notice that when the US finally decided to act in Syria (and Iraq) under the premise of acting against ISIS (……….), then finally, at a time when OPEC could have cut production to maintain prices, it didn’t. I personally believe the US is starting to hedge its bets in the Middle-East by slowly befriending Iran but 1) it takes time and 2) it can’t be seen doing so to quickly after calling Iran one of the countries part of the “axis of Evil” (even if a former president said that, not the current one).

Remember that in Syria the first “ISIS targets” where an oil refinery that ISIS had taken over [errr…. in other words, a refinery of the Syrian regime which had fallen into the hands of ISIS fighters for a few weeks].
So was there a “give and take” between the US and KSA on that front, I don’t know, but I wouldn’t be surprised if there had been one.

Iran seems not fooled in that story and understands that the US (and some GCC countries) bombing Syrian infrastructure weakens the its allied Syrian regime on the long run while on Northern Iraq, weakening ISIS helps the “de facto” slow/progressive establishment of a kurdish state. Note that Iraqi kurdistan has plenty of oil, while an independent Iraqi kurdistan means less money for the shiaa-led and Iran-allied central Government in Baghdad.

Lastly, to finish on the “geopolitical” aspect of oil, I want to draw the attention to some “events” which occurred in Chechnya a few days ago where a few policemen were killed and troups were mobilized to kill “terrorists” in the capital.
I wouldn’t be surprised if, in the coming months, we see conflicts erupting in areas controlled or under the influence of Russia.
These new conflicts or flashpoints would force Russia to spend more money on arms/fighting + would have to potentially send troops (with potential casualties translating into a slow growing discontent within the civil population as the young boys die) in combat zones. Again, that would be a repeat of the 80’s. I also believe Vladimir is well aware of these risks, and is preparing his boys/army for this. We’ll see.

SECOND THING: the “financial angle” of lower energy costs:
Personally, I cannot put aside the FINANCIAL RATIONALE of some “powerful players” such as central banks for having low(er) oil prices.
IMHO, lower oil prices enable 1) the FED to NOT HAVE TO RAISE RATES anytime soon and 2) avoid a total implosion/mess up of the Japanese economy.
So if some of the central bankers of the world want to show that their own QE is working, then an implosion of the economy where QE is implemented (be it the US, Japan, potentially the EU soon) has to be avoided AT ALL COST.
And for Japan, which is in the spotlight/which has been “given the relay stick”, it is crucial for energy costs to come down ELSE its domestic producers/companies will start to go bankrupt by the hundreds – literally.

As a final aside, I was also misunderstood on one topic: I never worked in France.
Started in finance in London – but worked in Singapore beforehand – although that wasn’t in finance – then moved to the Middle-East.

Best to all, and as always, GL investing/trading

LPG

PS: Skeeta, hope you’ll enjoy your upcoming March trip.

Why OPEC Will Tolerate Cheap Oil
http://www.europac.net/commentaries/why_opec_will_tolerate_cheap_oil

Lets all say thanks to god we don’t live in Venezuela. What a basket case! That 16 fold decline in the Bolivar in just two years had to hurt. We might be seeing a lot more of that in other countries in the coming years though, Matthew. As the deflationary trend accelerates in the developed economies the inverse appears to be arising in some emerging markets. That is to say that strong inflationary trends will be seen outside the major countries of the US and Europe. I believe it is already beginning here in East Africa where economic development is still high and dollar shortages persist. Foreign investors here are keen to borrow in the local currency on the belief inflation is going to be rising and thus there is a premium to be earned if you are repaying from a stronger currency. How beneficial it might be is unknown but land costs and leases are cheap in real terms. The dollar has appreciated 15% this year alone versus local money. That is a pretty good return on currency differentials no matter what you bought. Of course it only applies to those with USD or Euro accounts, not to locals who are stuck in their own money.

Chart:

http://scharts.co/1e7Pj4V

That maybe was the consensus back in September Biggus. It does not reflect how I feel personally anymore though. Here is why…..silver bottomed when it hit 15 dollars and although I wish it would return there again I now seriously doubt that is in the cards.

My downside bottom target on silver had been 16.30 which was hit. That target overshot and we saw 15.00 just days later before returning again to 16.30 which is close to where we sit today. This is just a stupidly good price and an excellent entry point in my opinion.

Secondly, it is getting pretty late in the year for gold to hit that 1050 bottom predicted by Goldman’s Currie and the charts are not suggesting we go further down in 2014 anyway.

In all probability then we have also already seen gold’s bottom when it breached the 1150 area and I am saying that from the backdrop that if silver saw its final bottom already then gold cannot be far behind as the two metals have such a strong tendency to track one another from peaks to valleys.

It is really amazing what a difference a month makes.

Before I got cutoff from the outside world back at the end of October I had been finally turning bullish metals again. That idea has been reinforced in my mind with even more conviction after a review of the charts in the light of December.

I am not a seller of gold anymore. I also believe it is time to buy a selection of miners. Even if I am wrong there is very little downside room to disappoint anymore. The dollar meanwhile does look like it is about to reverse beginning this week though so time may be short and gold action looks about ready to heat up.

If we are about to see a replay of last years bounce in gold I suspect it is actually going to come a little early in December (now) and get underway immediately rather than begin in the New Year.

Just my thoughts for the morning. I think the shakeout has ended.

Anything is possible, Glen but not everything is likely. My best evidence for the bottom is silvers declines into the abyss and lows below 15 dollars. It is possible I am reading too much into that but in conjunction it now appears the market may be preparing to punish Mr. Draghi for his inaction on interventions by pushing the Euro back up. With gold tracking the Euro so strongly of late this just smells like an encore of January 2014 when metals blasted higher for the first quarter. I will play it by ear since I cannot really look beyond a 3 month window. There is still plenty of impetus to push the dollar higher longer term and lots of good reasons for it to break to new highs but technicals suggest in the shorter term a reversal is imminent. Like you, I would NOT be short miners right now. Especially with falling energy costs.

I am still doing a lot of catch up here though. It has been more than a month since I had a chart on my screen. That is one of the downsides of living in the African wilderness. I am feeling positive overall though and the only thing that bothers me is 15 dollar silver came and went and i missed it.

But there is a new trade every single day. I didn’t really miss much. Actually, it feels more exciting to have been blacked out all those days. Gives me fresh eyes to see the markets like for the first time again.

Glen, from the inversed lease rate and negative GOFO rate as well as several fast reversals, the physical withdraw has finally overcome the paper short when the price was pushed down. The shorts may try one more time but I feel that 1180 looks like a line in the sand. Above it bullion banks can control and below that the physical is bought quickly. I think it should be safe to buy into physical weakness under 1180. I am looking for all the bullish factors to push gold and silver higher from some time next year. Money printing relay by CBs has to result in inflation. If price does not rise quickly, I am looking for miner default to reduce the supply for silver, not much impact for gold though due to above ground supply

Looks like as oil goes so does the doomed cdnx index. The baby is going to be thrown out with the bath water.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HOU.TO

You’re darn right it’s theater, they have the same masters and, ultimately, the same agenda. There are exceptions on both sides, I’m sure, but not many.