Markets, Metals and Currencies

May 9, 2015

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    May 09, 2015 09:54 AM

    The move in currencies this week was partly due to the UK election.
    Congrats to Mr. Cameron.
    Expect Scotland to leave the UK within 10 years, but Greece will leave EU first.

    (Reason Scotland will leave UK, despite voting against it last year, is that the SNP leader, Ms Sturgeon, is a raving commie, who will demand an end to England trying to balance its budget. Out of frustration at her rantings, Mr. Cameron will chooose to let Scotland have another refendum, and the Scottish Stupids will choose to leave the union. (Not realizing their welfare system is subsidized by England, AND that since Scotalnd is SNP, Wales and London area Labour Party, the rest of England substantially Conservative Party, meaning that without Scotland, there is a locked-in swing to the right away from socialism, which would guarantee Conservative Party victories for a long period.

      May 09, 2015 09:22 AM

      Does this mean, the UK will leave the EU and Scotland will stay in the EU?

      May 09, 2015 09:08 AM

      Bit of an exaggeration to describe the leader of the SNP as a commie. Don’t forget the legacy of a massive transfer of debt from the private banking sector to the UK state in 2009. Don’t see why the public should have to pay for that legacy by seeing their public services cut.

    May 09, 2015 09:56 AM

    By the way, the leadership of the Scottish Nationalist Party changed from Mr Salmon to Ms Sturgeon……sounds fishy to me!

      May 09, 2015 09:26 AM

      good one………

      May 09, 2015 09:36 AM

      How did Salmon Rushdie vote yesterday?

      May 09, 2015 09:55 PM

      funny CFS.

        May 09, 2015 09:08 PM

        Al & Cory – great weekend show, and thanks for getting and all-star lineup of speakers. Well done!!

    May 09, 2015 09:15 AM

    Thanks for the hard money questions on Santacruz.

      May 10, 2015 10:56 AM

      Yes – that was a good review of Santacruz Silver, and it sounds like they have done a great deal to improve their all in sustaining costs, have the 3rd ball mill ready, and the mine is starting to operate near capacity.

      I really believe some of these smaller silver producers will outperform most of the other mining sector. Silver will likely outperform Gold on a percentage basis, and silver miners will be a multiplier on that affect.

      The rest of their year should generate more free cash flow, and if the silver price even rebounded to $19-$20 level they’ll be raking it in, just like Scorpio, Alexco, (maybe Aurcana), Great Panther, Sierra Metals, Mandalay Resources, Endeavour, Fortuna, Hecla and First Majestic.

      There is a very interesting ETF (SILJ) that gives someone an exposure to almost every company in the Junior Silver mining and some of the mid-tiers. I like holding some of these stocks separately to trade, but I may just take a long term holding in this ETF because it does have a nice mix. I’ll list it here so people can also check out these companies individually:

      PureFunds ISE Junior Silver (Small Cap Miners/Explorers) ETF (SILJ) as of 05/08/2015
      Silver Equity % Total Net Assets Quantity Market Value (Base)
      HOCHSCHILD MINING 13.80% HOC LN 429054 678043.51
      MAG SILVER CORP COM 12.60% MAG CN 88406 618699.39
      FORTUNA SILVER MINES INC COM 10.69% FVI CN 140790 525261.94
      MANDALAY RES CORP COM 7.61% MND CN 507500 373640.24
      ENDEAVOUR SILVER CORP 5.82% EXK 140719 285659.57
      TREVALI MINING CORP 5.21% TV CN 262278 256018.56
      SILVER STANDARD RESOURCES 4.91% SSO CN 45095 241357.20
      SILVERCORP METAL INC COM 4.56% SVM CN 176837 223816.53
      BEAR CREEK MNG CORP COM 4.54% BCM CN 230358 222954.76
      SIERRA METALS INC 4.30% SMT CN 182230 211045.21
      SILVERCREST MINES, INC. SVL CN 189718 200884.34 4.089809295
      GREAT PANTHER SILVER LTD GPL 356526 195732.77 3.984928352
      SABINA GOLD & SILVER CORP COM SBB CN 530000 157835.96 3.213386251
      ALEXCO RESOURCE CORP AXU 292228 117504.88 2.392284786
      SCORPIO MNG CORP COM SPM CN 559618.96 115733.75 2.356226306
      GOLDEN MINERALS CO AUMN 231794 95267.33 1.93954995
      AURCANA CORPORATION AUN CN 244602 49573.97 1.009277693
      SANTACRUZ SILVER MNG LTD SCZ CV 260311 41990.85 0.854892764
      EXCELLON RESOURCES INC EXN CN 92854 39942.16 0.813183433
      MIRASOL RES LTD COM MRZ CN 52414 37721.95 0.767982122
      SILVER BULL RES INC SVBL 275352 30288.72 0.616648807
      KOOTENAY SILVER INC KTN CN 70964 27590.75 0.561720768
      MINCO SILVER CORP COM MSV CN 34514 14275.55 0.290636279
      IMPACT SILVER CORP IPT CN 78054 14205.14 0.2892028
      REVETT MNG CO RVM 7000 3232.6 0.065812584

      If you want some exposure to some of the Majors then you’ll like Coeur, First Majestic Silver, Pan American Silver, Silver Standard Resources, Silver Wheaton, and Fresnillo.

      *personal note – Dan Calgary, you need to get them to add Wildcat Silver to their ETF 🙂

        May 10, 2015 10:11 AM

        thanks for the post Shad………appreciate …………. FtheBoot

        May 10, 2015 10:34 PM

        The only other Silver companies I don’t see on the ones mentioned above of any significance are the Sprott Physical Silver Trust (PSLV), the Reverse Silver ETF (ZSL), El Tigre Silver (EGRTF), Huldra Silver (HUSIF), Avrupa Minerals (AVPMF) – it has a silver component but is polymetalic, Levon Resources (LVNVF) – same thing, Starcore International (SHVLF) – also poly metallic w/ big silver credit, and Mines Managament Inc (MGN) – same thing.

          May 10, 2015 10:44 PM

          I am going to post a complete and consolidated list of all the Silver companies or Silver ETFs at the bottom of this this weekend thread that is sorted alphabetically by their US or US OTC equivalent (I apologize to my Canadian friends that will be used to different ticker symbols). However, if anyone can think of any silver companies not included on the list at the very bottom of the blog, please let me know. Thanks!

    May 09, 2015 09:19 AM

    Katusa Research: Loved the varticle on Uranium.

      May 09, 2015 09:50 AM

      CFS is back! Where you been, man?

      May 10, 2015 10:24 AM

      YES CFS ! ALL OK ?

      May 10, 2015 10:36 PM

      Agreed, as I’ve been saying all week, the bottom is in on Uranium, and I sold a few weeks back into the strength of the Japanese restart announcement, but then stocks have pulled back again the last 2 weeks waiting to see if they’ll follow through and do it. China also announce that it is moving ahead with construction of new reactors. I went back in rather heavy this last week on Uranium miners.

      May 10, 2015 10:25 PM

      OK I am posting the link to Martin Katusa’s article on Uranium, the Obama blunders that have played into Russia’s strategy, and some great company breakdowns with Uranium One’s Russian takeover, Cameco, Areva, Energy Fuels, Uranerz, Ur-Energy, and the focal point of the article his clear preference (and rightly so based on the data he puts forward) on Uranium Energy Corp as the clear favorite on the list.

      This is a fantastic article and worth the time to read it!!

      May 10, 2015 10:32 PM

      In addition here is a link to Marin Katusa’s artilce on Oil, OPEC, and some opportunity with each section inspired by different Classic Rock subheadings.

    May 09, 2015 09:20 AM

    Not as fishy as all the Lib Dems getting beached up in the west country CFS. Agree also about Santacruz. Best, A

    May 09, 2015 09:15 AM

    Oh GOODY!

    The one-hundred-useless-links-per-day vagrant is back.

    I’m out.

    May 09, 2015 09:46 AM

    Back Currency and SYRIA

    Fiat money is a ponzi scheme, thats why it fails. Gold standards are too restrictive to wage war or to maintain a superpower’s military,
    Thats why it is abandoned. We vacillate between the two systems, each good for a while, neither better than the other. Fiats end is coming,
    The only question is when, my guess it will have to do with the latest round of oil wars in the middle east and Crimea.
    If USA loose a few key areas in the middle east, the slide accelerates, if they gain Syria and retake Yemen, they have quite a few more years.

    It seems that Syria is the next target. Check Iran and Russia …

    May 09, 2015 09:00 AM

    seg 3…….thanks for the new view……….Marin

      May 10, 2015 10:15 AM

      Agreed. Marin Katusa is a sharp guy.

        May 10, 2015 10:18 AM

        If he was with Casey, he should have learned a lot…….. jmho…….. TO BOOT…….

          May 10, 2015 10:12 PM

          and he spent a considerable amount of time working with Rick Rule. He’s well-informed and it will be interesting to follow his new site.

            May 10, 2015 10:33 PM

            See the links I posted up above for 2 great articles that Marin Katusa recently put out on both Oil/Saudi Arabia/Classic Rock music and Uranium/The Clintons/Russia.

            May 11, 2015 11:47 AM

            BLACK MAGIC WOMAN…………… 🙂

            May 11, 2015 11:48 AM

            Seems to me that it was foretold of events to come……….O …. 🙂

    May 09, 2015 09:04 AM

    Gabriel, a gold standard doesn’t restrict war in the least, its a goldbug fantasy.
    Doesn’t mean gold backed paper isn’t a good idea, just the restricting war part of the argument is bologna.
    Actually we have been on a gold standard during most of our wars thuout history.

    May 09, 2015 09:58 AM

    ‘The Economist’ Anti-Gold Article – Case Study in Disinformation

    May 09, 2015 09:13 AM

    Of course the US$ and the US equity markets can, have and will rise together

    Global capital flows into US equities, so those foreign currencies are converted to US$’s to do so, add that the US is the only government on the planet looking to raise interest rates, more global cash converting into US treasuries

      May 09, 2015 09:40 AM

      The $ had been falling sharply for the two years that ended with the 2007 top in the Dow. But they went up together in the 1990s, so it can go either way.

      Contrary to what many big names think, the Dow is still in a secular bear market even though this cyclical bull has taken it to new highs. I have never had a reason to doubt this.

        May 09, 2015 09:51 AM

        “The DOW is in a secular bear market”…… WNK

        I could not stop laughing after reading that. I mean I REALLY split a gut laughing. Come on WNK….that is just too funny for words. Please elaborate because your answer has just GOT to offer more entertainment value if you will indulge us further.

        Guess gold is in a secular bull too, hunh?

        Its the road to riches folks! You should have been selling the DOW and buying gold over the past many years………………..yeah right!!!!

          May 09, 2015 09:26 AM

          BIRD…my sentiments exactly.
          I ask myself, what are the sniffing?
          Here some study for those….YES HE HAS BEEN CORRECT and predicted it all..

            May 09, 2015 09:38 AM

            Gold is is a bull market??? WHAT…Bob Moriarty said so…LOL Its all about those ads…there a vested interest in BSing folks….This is near criminal behavior. Read AVA…He doesn’t BS people..

            May 09, 2015 09:11 AM

            Gold is in a cyclical bear within a greater secular bull. Stocks are in a cyclical bull within a secular bear.

            One who has little understanding is likely to find this controversial. One who has no understanding at all is likely to find this ridiculous or even laughable.

            May 09, 2015 09:18 AM

            You got it Bill. The wanker manipulators think we are all so stupid that all they need to do is repeat the same garbage day after day and everyone will get on board the retard train and buy the lines. It’s really pathetic. But we must speak up with conviction against the propaganda they keep pumping.

            May 09, 2015 09:19 AM

            “One who has little understanding is likely to find this controversial”. — WANK

            One who is aware will tell you that you are a wank.

            May 09, 2015 09:21 AM

            And how does one know it’s in a cyclical bull!?? It’s impossible to tell untill it reverts back into a bull.
            This why Mr Sprott lost so much money. They didn’t even see the bear coming but they preach of a bull just around the corner for 2 years.

            May 09, 2015 09:28 AM

            In Sprotts case he just lives in a different world. Nobody normal respects anything coming out of that guys mouth when it comes to precious metals because it is always the same sorry old tune.

            I am sure one day he will be right.

            Whoever said billionaires were especially talented or skilful obviously did not know any.

            May 09, 2015 09:32 AM

            Bird. EXACTLY and that is what keeps a market down.
            That fact that Sprott went on a metal promoting / pumping spree is what ends bull markets. Convincing every Tom Dick and Harry to buy PMs and they do the bottoms drops out. Same with as Schiff and all the rest. That put in a major bull top. If people had not of pumped and pumped we would have climbed the wall of worry for some time. But in reality the money being made on the massive premiums and then the storage fees was the game.

            May 09, 2015 09:33 AM

            Try studying for a change, Bird. You are so wrong about such a wide variety of important topics, you really should consider it. Who knows, you just might be happier, too. There’s nothing like the fog of confusion to make a person irritable.

            May 09, 2015 09:35 AM

            Bird say: “Nobody normal…” Lol, normal = ignorant. Who cares what “normal” people think?

            May 09, 2015 09:54 AM

            I say: Have you ever seen the rain?

            May 09, 2015 09:21 PM

            No time left for you or a gentle rain…

            May 09, 2015 09:30 PM

            You give me Burton Cummings? HA HA HA!!!

            The Guess Who? You got the Guess Who?…….Give me a break man! You need real music. Not that organic cornflakes stuff, How about the real “Who” buddy? Put that in your cereal for a change.

            The Who — We Won’t Get Fooled Again!

            May 09, 2015 09:54 PM

            Don’t be upset with Burton, he was only the messenger.

            May 09, 2015 09:01 PM

            Mr. Sprott’s Big Adventure

            “Much Kirkland Lake’s share price performance of late can likely be attributed to one man: Eric Sprott. On January 26, 2015, Kirkland Lake Gold announced the appointment of the founder of Sprott Asset Management as the company’s next Chairman. At the time of the release. Mr. Sprott held 11.3% of Kirkland Lake Gold’s issued and outstanding common stock. Kirkland Lake Gold owns the Macassa Mine and Mill and four contiguous formerly producing gold mining properties in northern Ontario. Macassa has one the highest reserve grades of any gold mine in the world at 17.1 grams per tonne (g/t). Year to date (YTD) 2015, the company’s all-in cash cost per ounce slid to US$1,153, which allowed it to generate net income of $4.2 million for the third-quarter and $11.9 million YTD. Kirkland Lake Gold also recently increased its production guidance for fiscal 2015 from 140,000- 155,000 ounces to 153,000-157,000.”

            May 09, 2015 09:13 PM

            Brian – thanks for posting that about Kirkland Lake. I didn’t realize the grade of their ore was that high. Gazzoooks!

            May 09, 2015 09:26 PM

            17.1 grams per tonne (g/t) – better than PVG (Pretium)
            Paying off debt (What Junior does NOT have it?)
            150K ounces per year
            Union miners / Good relationship with first nations / Ethical miner

            … I could go on …

          May 09, 2015 09:24 PM

          Both gold and DOW are in bull market. If someone wants justify a bear market in asset , especially hard asset in a world all governments are inflating, he has to either twist the facts or logic. Justifying a bull market is straight forward. Simple logic is always better than complex ones.

          By the way, I recommended several Canadian oil gas companies. However, due to the fact that alberta elected a socialist government, I am no longer optimistic. The potential for growth is much less. If have shift some funds to US and a saskatween based comapnies. Sorry,

        May 09, 2015 09:56 AM

        I never trade off articles like that you posted of the Economist or past data, I trade what the chart is showing today. 100 opinions why X should be up, 100 why it should be down.

        When oil was sub $45 my gut told me the $30 level was in play yet I followed the chart action covered my short from $75 ( never thought it would fall below that key support zone, it did so short was the trade) and went long once $47 was left behind as the Euro$ regained 107.

        I still think the Feds will raise rates sooner than later and send the $ above 100 sending oil, Euro$ and gold lower below $1000. Once $1525 fell a repeat of the previous bull market has been my thinking as gold gave back 50% before ripping higher back in the 70’s, so $960 seems very possible, but just as $30 oil didn’t happen when I thought it would I’ll let the chart show the way as the chart is reality the rest is all noise

        good luck to you

          May 09, 2015 09:10 AM

          Not everything is about a trade. I did not suggest that anyone should “trade off” that article.
          The timing of establishment propaganda has always been more than a little “interesting” to those who can recognize it.

            May 09, 2015 09:41 AM

            wocsom morf knarF
            This is true and the dynamics were completely different in the 70s.
            No one had trading accounts. There were no CNBC cheerleading criminals. ETFs popped up like mushrooms in the night and took money that would have went into stocks. They created a pile of bullion funds that well should have kept gold chugging from demand right? It blew up anyway.
            Who knows maybe gold starts a run again but I wouldn’t bet on it. I wasn’t a Johnny come lately, I bought in 2000. I own nothing at the moment because it’s a crap shoot right now. Those without a ton of debt and low cost are surviving @ $1200. That doesn’t make it a bull. Cheers!

            May 09, 2015 09:00 PM

            Indeed Bill…that does not make it a Bull. Well said, man. I really liked how you just cut through the crap and got right to the point with that comment.

          May 09, 2015 09:22 AM

          Sorry to nit-pick, but I think the US$ 960 price does not reflect a 50% retracement.
          Using the 1990’s low of US$250 (not $0)

          1925 – [(1925-250)*.5] = US$1088.

          But maybe you mentioned $960 for a reason?
          At any rate, I think US$1088 is within the realm of possibilities for this summer.

            May 09, 2015 09:27 AM

            You are right, BUT, in the mid ’70s correction, gold gave back almost half of the entire price.

            May 09, 2015 09:43 AM

            wocsom morf knarF
            This is true and the dynamics were completely different in the 70s.
            No one had trading accounts. There were no CNBC cheerleading criminals.
            This time around ETFs popped up like mushrooms in the night and took money that would have went into stocks. They created a pile of bullion funds that well should have kept gold chugging from demand right? It blew up anyway.
            Who knows maybe gold starts a run again but I wouldn’t bet on it. I wasn’t a Johnny come lately, I bought in 2000. I own nothing at the moment because it’s a crap shoot right now. Those without a ton of debt and low cost are surviving @ $1200. That doesn’t make it a bull. Cheers!

            May 09, 2015 09:48 AM

            Yes, they were different. This is why gold will not be going to $960. I look at gold, but the miners are where it’s at right now, in my opinion. The juniors will outperform the seniors and silver will outperform gold.

            May 09, 2015 09:49 AM

            You’re also right that there is technically no new cyclical bull —yet.

            May 09, 2015 09:46 PM

            So now you agree with Bill.

            Interesting to say the least.

            May 09, 2015 09:57 PM

            “Now” I agree? I never disagreed on those issues. Pay attention dude.

    May 09, 2015 09:26 AM

    As a full time trader everything is about trading, lol

    A contrarian trader these past few years has been killed all the negative gold articles have been correct for years now all the US$ negative calls have been completely wrong, all the Dow crash calls very wrong etc etc, much easier just to trade and let all the verbal crap pile up. If I listened to Doc and Rick I would have sold my long US equity positions many times, its the trend that has never broken down on the chart that I trade off regardless of past data points or guru outlooks, the charts never lie, CRJ great example as the indicators have suggested long positions since Nov 17 @ .27 while gold rose $160 and fell $160

      May 09, 2015 09:00 AM

      You’re not very analytical if you haven’t noticed the significance timing (short, medium, or log term) of the msm hatchet jobs. How about that Roubini turning into a bull AT the top after being a nasty, wrong bear for for years?

      3.5 months before your charts said to buy, things about Claude were clear enough:

      On December 2, 2014 at 6:26 am,
      Matthew says:
      On July 29, 2014 at 11:00 am,
Matthew says:
      Claude Resources (CRJ.TO) is another one that has been really beat up by this bear market. I am convinced that the worst is absolutely behind Claude and that the current price reflects risks that just aren’t there and concerns that have been dealt with. It just rallied 100% in five weeks and is going to go much higher in the weeks and months ahead.

      A great trader travels a safer path than a great speculator, but is unlikely to match his gains. An average trader will get smoked by an average speculator.

      There is much more to TA than trends and breakouts but not many seem to agree judging by how many prominent technicians call for lower lows right at THE low. Dec. ’13 and June ’14 are good examples. They were wrong and I guess I was lucky. 😮

        May 09, 2015 09:37 AM

        “wocsom morf knarF” = “Frank from Mosco” = wetthaM = Matthew

          May 09, 2015 09:02 PM

          He posts as several other people too.

            May 09, 2015 09:12 PM

            Me Just Bill…Ug

            May 09, 2015 09:17 PM

            Wrong Birdman, AS USUAL.

            May 09, 2015 09:48 PM

            I think it’s an obsession, Mark.

            May 10, 2015 10:25 AM

            ditto wmk

        May 09, 2015 09:29 PM

        Matthew, I don’t care if God himself was interviewed by big Al and he said gold was going to $5 or $500,000 this month, if the chart doesn’t indicate selling or buying I could careless what is his or anyone else’s targets are I follow the chart only. I’ve never been a speculator I don’t need to be, as trading momentum has done me very well indeed.

        CRJ’s timeframe was just an example of it breaking out when gold broke out towards $1300, I’m well aware CRJ was indicating a buy many times before and as well at times to sell.

        As for calling for lower lows and higher highs all chart technicians understand when a key support or resistance level falls that the next level comes into play, but often its not the case and a reversal takes place, its those that can adjust to the reversal that survive, I’m in no way stuck on $960, maybe the low is already in or maybe $700 will be in print on the chart I have no idea or really care, gold was a buy at $1200 in Jan a sell $1270 Feb a buy $1170 March and a sell $1200 April

        May 09, 2015 09:05 PM

        I agree entirely about Claude. I will continue to add to my positions unless the fundamentals change—-I won’t add after $1.00 on the venture.

          May 09, 2015 09:24 PM

          Thanks for being specific on the $1.00 limit – I assume this is CD$ not US$?

          I am a HORRIBLE trader, but the TA you have taught me has really helped in accumulating blocks of shares (on pullbacks) of the stocks I want to hold for years. The analytical side of my brain just LOVES to look at charts and indicators. By the way, I am down to four for the stocks I own (not general market or commodity stuff):
          Overlays: BB, SAR
          Indicators: ADX, MFI.

          I admit to looking at the BB(10,1.9) to trade JNUG, but I do that with a flashlight under the covers 😉

          I removed RSI and MACD (Horrors ! ! !) and tried the Wm%

          May 09, 2015 09:19 PM

          Im sure you guys will make out fine with Claude, odd tho that producers with cash, producing more, bright enough future to need “sunglasses”, fewer shares out and they sell for about the same price as Claude, with Claude moving up they will soon be more expensive.

          I honestly think the net plays a part in driving the price up. Im actually scared to tell you guys names now, you bazilionars would just drive the price up of the ones I like. lol
          AAAaah you guys already know them anyway. It is interesting to compare miners tho.

    May 09, 2015 09:14 AM

    I am a unit holder of Central Fund Silver Bullion Trust. I received a meeting notice to vote against the take over by a Company called North Pole Capital Master Fund represented by Polar Securities. Is this the deal Rick is talking about? The information circular said the only change is to have redemption added to the fund. I thought the fund will be taken over and merged to Sprott funds.

    Are this the same thing?

    Is the fund going to be brought to Sprott fund or operated along or merged with GTU? It is relatively small fund and the fee will be much higher if operated as an open ended fund.

    Anybody has information on this. I rarely voted on meetings but I need to make decision.


      May 09, 2015 09:23 AM

      Hi Lawrence, Matthew here. Yes, that is the deal that Rick is talking about. I’m sure you will receive a separate notice pertaining to the Sprott deal.

      May 09, 2015 09:35 AM


      Have you seen this announcement on the GTU site from 01May2015?


      A while back, I sold my Central Fund of Canada (the same folks as GTU) to buy into the Sprott funds for PHYS (gold) and PSLV (silver). I recently switched my gold into OUNZ, but still have my PSLV. So I am biased.

      If I was a GTU shareholder, I would vote FOR the takeover by Sprott; I would ignore North Pole Capital. Just my opinion.


        May 09, 2015 09:44 AM

        I agree, of course. Vote for Sprott and against North Pole Cap.

          May 09, 2015 09:53 PM

          So Polar and sprott are two different deals, right? I don’t like Polar deal after I read it. Unless the SBT fund is merged into larger fund, it is costly to operate redemable fund.

          Do you know why I haven’t received any information about Sprott. I heard Sprott is taking over both SBT and GTU.

            May 09, 2015 09:01 PM

            I don’t own GTU.

            May 09, 2015 09:05 PM

            Yes, two different deals. I don’t know why you haven’t received any information. You could ask your broker about it.

            May 09, 2015 09:47 PM

            I have been away and also did not receive any Sprott notice. I think Sprott has not made a formal offer to SBT. At least no voted yet.

            I think I will vote against Polar deal. But I do want some merger to happen since the discount is stupid.

            May 09, 2015 09:01 PM

            Reading from the information you have provided, it appears that we have to reject the polar deal and them Sprott deal can be voted later. If Polar deal passed, there would not be any Sprott deal. Hope my understanding is correct. I need to catch up.


            May 09, 2015 09:05 PM

            I think the Sprott deal is going to happen.

            May 09, 2015 09:34 PM

            It is nice to know since I like PHYS. However, Polar control 10% of SBT. How about it passes?

            May 09, 2015 09:37 PM

            Mattew, I and my wife own quite bit of SBT.UN. Do you mind to share your idea? I really need to proceed. I appreciate your input.

            I like PHYS but know nothing about polar.

            May 09, 2015 09:59 PM

            I would hold for the Sprott deal or at least until more information becomes available.
            Did you look at the info on their homepage? They give the reasons to reject the Polar proposal.

            May 09, 2015 09:34 PM

            Special Edition: Rick Rule Discusses Sprott’s Plan for $898-million Hostile Takeover bid!

            Rick gets into the background on on the Polar deal and their hostile takeover in more detail on this Palisade radio interview below.


            May 09, 2015 09:35 PM

            I agree that the Sprott deal is going to happen. Rick has been on about 5 prominent sites promoting the details.

            May 09, 2015 09:31 PM

            Thanks. Just voted against Polar Securities’s change. Will wait for Sprott.

          May 09, 2015 09:10 PM

          Yes I did read this morning. SBT said that it has not received the offer from Sprott yet. However, the deals have helped the unit price neverthless.

    May 09, 2015 09:35 PM

    I noticed that King World News is having problems today. Anyone else notice a problem?

      May 09, 2015 09:49 PM

      If they are off the air it is not a problem in my books. God Bless them and bye bye!!

        May 09, 2015 09:51 PM

        That’s the Sprott channel right?

          May 09, 2015 09:11 PM

          What Bird, you don’t like hearin gold todamoon?

          Just get yourself a stack, pile it up, look at it and turn on KWN.
          Its great. lol

            May 09, 2015 09:21 PM

            bb good one!

        May 09, 2015 09:08 PM

        Good one Bird!! LOL
        I was KWN bashing sometime ago…..These guys are the problem. I had an email battle with them clowns a couple years ago calling them on their CRAP….You wouldn’t believe the PROFANITY that came from them because I was 100% correct…..Shortly there after they didn’t take emails.

          May 10, 2015 10:52 PM

          For the emperor with no clothes, off course the little child was the problem. Good comment Bill

      May 09, 2015 09:04 PM

      Steven, I just tried it and the first interview would not load.

    May 09, 2015 09:06 PM

    Gravity Separation: 6 Gold Juniors That Have Soared So Far in 2015

    Spoiler alert, Claude Resources wins.

      May 09, 2015 09:49 PM

      That article made me happy; I own three of those stocks !
      I’ve tried a couple times to get a discussion going about Kirkland lake gold on the forum, but not much interest. Oh well.

        May 09, 2015 09:14 PM

        Well, they don’t have one of the best performers and that’s Richmont which is up about 200% from it’s low.

          May 09, 2015 09:42 PM

          Richmont has done spectacularly since last June but is only up 8.5% for 2015 while Claude is up 131%.

            May 09, 2015 09:28 PM

            IMO, going higher as well.

            May 09, 2015 09:27 PM

            I agree. I don’t know the company, but it looks like a move up is imminent.

          May 09, 2015 09:27 PM

          Brian slaps forehead and says “DOH” (out loud) for not buying Richmont

            May 09, 2015 09:43 PM

            Agreed Brian. BTW – You more than anyone have me taking a serious look at Kirkland Lake and I’ve become more and more interested the more I’ve researched it, so don’t feel like you posting isn’t reaching people. Keep the good ideas coming Brian.

      May 09, 2015 09:48 PM

      How much you got sunk into TGM?

        May 09, 2015 09:28 PM

        A lot more than I did the last time you mentioned it. Why do you ask?

          May 09, 2015 09:57 PM

          WMK – do you think the political situation in Burkina Faso will become an issue?

            May 09, 2015 09:22 PM

            It’s been an issue and still is to many. It resulted in a big sell-off that was made worse by a prominent newsletter advising subs to dump it. Although it’s well above its lows, it’s a long way from recovering its old price. So it carries a significant risk premium for now.

            I believe the fears are not warranted so I used the price weakness to more than double down. With the production date now delayed a bit and fears still hanging over it, I don’t think it will trade in a significantly higher range soon unless the whole sector moves up.

            May 10, 2015 10:20 AM

            I think you may be setting yourself up for a substantial profit my friend, and I was actually considering going into a position in True Gold because I saw that drop off and knew they were getting ready to go into production. Upon researching it further, I’ll admit the political climate in Burkina Faso made me cringe, and I held off. However, if they move forward with production in early 2016, and everything sorts itself out there, this one could go up exponentially in share price, but carries a high risk premium. I may sprinkle in a position for just that reason.


            May 10, 2015 10:27 AM

            There’s nothing wrong with a tiny position when the potential is 50-100 times your money. You’re better off buying a little when the market perceives a high amount of risk than buying a lot when the market perceives a much lower risk -at 10 times the MCAP.

            May 10, 2015 10:50 AM

            Fo Sho. I like buying the unloved assets, but only if I see where the upside is coming from, and with True Gold it seems quite likely to be dramaticly to the upside – providing they get into production and the new government doesn’t try to nationalize it.

            May 10, 2015 10:18 AM

            Even if there are a few more political bumps in the road (and I don’t think there will be), I believe that there is a very, very low chance that TGM will be nationalized.
            The government is already getting a 4% net smelter royalty and 10% of after-tax cash flow and that’s in addition to the 17.5% corporate tax rate and $10M in fees. Then there’s the political and economic benefits of all those jobs… of course, government foolishness tends to shock and awe on a regular basis, so who knows? But I’m not worried.

            It will be a cash cow at the current gold price and even lower, so imagine what could happen to the share price when gold goes up substantially. It’s not reasonable or rational, but a rising share price will cause many investors to forget all about potential political risks.

            May 10, 2015 10:19 PM

            Very valid points WMK. One would think it wouldn’t get nationalized with the NSR, tax revenue, and jobs, but look at what has happened so often in Africa, and for that matter South America as well. Governments often shoot themselves in the foot and make decisions that kill the success they are experiencing, but hopefully all that is behind them in Burkina Faso, and things start to stabilize moving forward.

            You’re correct that if the share price shoots up substantially, people will push aside the political risk, and True Gold (RVREF) will be sitting pretty if gold prices do rise. OK its on the shopping list now.

            May 10, 2015 10:39 PM

            Yup, there’s no telling what any government will do, but I wouldn’t lump 4.5 dozen African nations together. We wouldn’t look at North America as a single entity from a political risk standpoint.
            Burkina Faso is among the lowest risk countries for mining in Africa as far as I know.

            Good luck with your accumulation plan if you do decide to go for it.

        May 09, 2015 09:16 PM

        wocsom is that really you Matthew?!! If so I’ll keep to following KER! A

    May 09, 2015 09:32 PM

    Hope everyone is having a good WE.

    WMK, a quick one, if you don’t mind:

    To quote you:
    “Gold is in a cyclical bear within a greater secular bull.
    Stocks are in a cyclical bull within a secular bear.”

    I tend to agree with the first sentence of this (your) statement. Time will tell if I am (if we are) proven right or not.

    What kind of intrigued me is the 2nd sentence of your statement.
    I suspect you might be differentiating between nominal and real (inflation adjusted) returns in order to make this statement.
    But if you have time, can you please elaborate why you think stocks (and by this I assume you mean US conventional markets, w. most likely DJI, SPY specifically – leaving NDSQ aside) are in a secular bear ?

    Cheers & Best to you as always.


    May 09, 2015 09:06 PM

    ★★★★★★★★★★★★★ IT’S…..SHOWTIME ★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★

    Everyone is invited to the event and this tragic unfortunate time in history is soon
    to take place. You can thank the gold bears who mock honest money and moral
    values. The one’s who will really feel the great pain and suffering are the gold bears
    They scoff at the 4 G’s …Gold ..God…Guns and Grub.

    YOU CANT DO THAT !!!!! How dare you !!! JUDGMENT IS COMING….

    Turn Ye…Turn Ye…..from your immoral ways. Avoid the eternal judgment.


    You ungodly Gold Bears ……..”.PUMPERS” !!!!!!!! Stop pumpin the B.S.

    CEASE AND DESIST ….NOW !!!!!! Here and now too….A.O. ..Ha .:)

      May 09, 2015 09:08 PM

      Whomever showed HH how to insert symbols into his posts should be punished.

        May 09, 2015 09:34 PM

        Twas…a gold bear. Sentencing and judgment is at hand.

          May 09, 2015 09:37 PM

          Well then … gold star for you, sir 😉

            May 09, 2015 09:13 PM


            Thanks for the link/chart. I was looking for something/some chart of this kind.

            Now, a quick one, if I may.

            Since May 1st of 2014 (date in the chart from link), the S&P is up 12% (as of yday’s close).

            If you assume say 2% official CPI inflation (i don’t have the exact figure…but I assume it should be about that – at best)… then you’d have the S&P/CPI ratio moving up another about 10%ish (ball park). –> So the ratio would move from 7.95 last year as of May 1st to likely ABOUT 8.7-8.8 as of now. Which would place it at the same level as the 2000 top.

            So, stating the obvious, we’ll see where we go from here…But this single item, in itself, at the present stage (ie as of today), and IMHO, doesn’t make it (or said it otherwise, it doesn’t “represent”/display/highlight) a secular bear market for equities.

            Best to you & GL to all investing/trading.


            May 09, 2015 09:37 PM

            LPG, Brian, the CPI is so corrupted you’d be better off with the Dow priced in commodities, or even better, gold.

            That said, I don’t think it’s useful for determining if we have a secular trend-change or not. The mid (secular) cycle rally has been so compelling because it began as gold and commodities kicked-off their mid cycle corrections. Given the huge divergence between stocks and the economy since last September, I’d bet that there’s even more engineering going on than in the past. It spells opportunity.

            May 09, 2015 09:58 PM

            I agree w. your comment re: the CPI corruption.
            My comment, FWIW, was focused on Brian’s provided chart in itself. 🙂
            Best to you,

            May 09, 2015 09:02 PM

            Thank you Brian…Sir.

            Over and out 🙂

            May 10, 2015 10:08 AM

            HH…..great to hear from you…… The boot.

            May 10, 2015 10:39 AM

            Thanks Frank. George Washington must be turning
            over in his grave right now. His warning is completely
            ignored. Very unfortunate.

            Happy Sunday to you …The Boot…. 🙂

            May 10, 2015 10:14 AM

            Ditto… friend………… 🙂

            May 10, 2015 10:32 AM


            May 10, 2015 10:56 AM


            May 10, 2015 10:14 PM

            Hey HH, Matthew, Frank from Moscow and others great to feel old friends coming back in!!

            May 10, 2015 10:20 PM

            Thank you Franky. One thing I notice that all gold bears
            have in common they reject God. Thats not cool.

            Like you say Franky…… is the way…

            Judgment is coming now. As you know Franky.

            Peace and blessings to you in these last days. 🙂

            May 10, 2015 10:29 PM

            Happy Sunday to you Reverend Andrew.

            Very nice to see your presence here with
            all the gold comrads. Hope you post more
            often as I do enjoy reading your comments.

            I plan on posting seldom over the coming months
            but what can you do when time does not allow.

            Peace and blessings to you in these perilous times.

            Thanks for being here. 🙂

            May 10, 2015 10:58 PM

            DITTO …A AND HH………….. THE BOOT

            May 10, 2015 10:33 PM

            … 🙂

            May 10, 2015 10:56 PM

            Harpazo Rapturo


            Comprendo !!! 🙂

            May 10, 2015 10:54 PM


        May 09, 2015 09:08 PM

        That’s funny Brian, gotta good laugh.

    May 09, 2015 09:07 PM

    If you take the 2000 to present time-frame, and consider inflation (which is what Gold is supposed to protect you from) Matthew seems correct. But, I do not want to speak for him.

    Personally, I started investing in 1997. If I had just taken my savings and regularly bought gold coins, I would be much better off financially, than listening to “Financial Advisors” and placing my FAITH in the stock market.

    Inflation-adjusted S&P from 2000-present (almost)

    Regards to LPG,

      May 10, 2015 10:54 PM

      This chart does not factor in dividends. And if dividends are re-invested can make a big difference.

    May 09, 2015 09:26 PM

    Axel Mark: “There is no place to hide.”
    That’s the rub.

    May 09, 2015 09:12 PM

    My song of the week

    “Echoes” Pink Floyd (pre-DSOTM and Alan Parsons)
    Running time: 23:31

    May 09, 2015 09:21 PM

    Silverbug Dave,

    Axel Merk is 100% to correct. “There is no place to hide.”

    It doesn’t take a genius or Nostradamus to foresee the future or delineate probable outcomes because we have centuries of recorded history that show categorically how humans and governments will react to crisis events and its always the same. You either conform and comply or you can daisy’s and grass growing over your decaying body.

    History is replete with behavioral examples that clearly define the future’s directional blueprint and history will continue to be one of your greatest road-maps to future human outcomes and probabilities.

    There is no place to hide and the laws being passed across the globe prove those dimensions in spades. En-light of these issues it is vital now more than ever that even though you may be inundated and surrounded by peer pressure from these “one trick pony” fruitcakes screaming from the rooftops that they have the answer and that only “this” or “that” can save you. You must use reason and commonsense to counter the silly hype and nonsense being pasted off as fact.

    When you meet people like this and listen to their foolish ramblings that tell you that they have it all figured out, don’t walk but run as fast as you can.

    Well reasoned and rational folks understand that a well diversified asset portfolio that includes some gold and silver in various forms and even strong international fully solvent banks along with many other tangible assets of many diverse types located internationally and geographically diversified will be your best option when the dollar deck chairs on the global Titanic are rearranged.

    But make no bones about it……..“There is no place to hide.”


      May 09, 2015 09:03 PM

      Well said Vortex. Axel is a sharp guy.

    May 09, 2015 09:34 PM

    I liked Segment 7’s discussion about currencies.

    It’s a pisser but I now see and accept that elected officials won’t ever support a hard currency. It will have to collapse on it’s own I guess.

      May 09, 2015 09:09 PM


      Hard currencies like gold and silver will never be allowed to function freely and openly as a currency substitute or reenter the mainstream world of finance and everyday market commerce that involves the little guy and gal on the street on an even and fair basis with fair taxation.

      That does not mean that gold and silver are not valuable or worth holding while their legal to own. In-fact they are very valuable and hold many positive monetary traits.

      But those centuries old positives and monetary value metrics are the very reason they pose an inherent threat as a currency option to the status quo. Even in its small magnitude, is nonetheless a threat that the system cannot and will not allow to function in a free market monetary environment.

      That’s why everyone needs to be diversified and stop thinking in a one dimensional sphere and start forming an exit plan for when these insane government edicts of control and extreme currency controls including control over all transactions of gold and silver are rolled out in full view.

      These draconian measures are already in-place such as a 28% tax on bullion, but they will become even more excessive in their destructive ramifications we get closer to the reset.

      First they will remove the cash…….then they will go for juggler by making gold and silver a cancerous asset to hold and own and it may even pose a threat to your personal safety.

      Don’t think it can’t and won’t happen, just stick around for awhile.

      Have your exit plan ready to go under two or three different scenarios.


        May 10, 2015 10:10 AM

        AND accepted as TIER ONE ASSETS…………… THE BOOT

        May 11, 2015 11:43 AM

        “Never” is a long long time, and
        it always seems to end badly…

    May 09, 2015 09:46 PM

    AI, or artificial intelligence is challenging mankind and it can’t be rolled back:

      May 09, 2015 09:04 PM

      DT, it seem like you really like this topic. I recommend you print off the entire Wikipedia on “Transhumanism” for more info on this controversial subject.


        May 09, 2015 09:06 PM

        Then follow all of the links, references, and the other various rabbit holes. You may already be familiar, but Ray Kurzweil is a big voice in the space.

          May 10, 2015 10:13 AM

          Thanks for the insights Shad I will check out Wikipedia. DT

    May 10, 2015 10:24 AM

    Encouraging more risk taking by banks, sounds like a fantastic idea! 😉

    May 10, 2015 10:18 AM

    People talked about cashless society. Gold is ultimate form of cash. If cash is banned, what happens to gold. People do need cash and want cash.

    May 10, 2015 10:46 AM

    PBOC cuts rates again, last time was Feb 28th and before that Nov 21st 2014, following the cut gold fell from $1200+ both times to $1141 Nov in 1 week Feb in 2 weeks as the US$ rose in Feb from 94-100 next week will be worth watching to see the reaction in the $, gold, oil, etc Once again the only country with a possible interest hike cycle in play is the US (bidding up the US$) every other country is cutting rates in fear of deeeeflation

      May 10, 2015 10:16 AM

      My parent lives in Beijing. They saved their money to fixed term and gets 4.5%. It is not too bad. If I can get that interest here, I will put most of my money in savings. Every country is lowering their rate. It is really unfortunate.

        May 10, 2015 10:18 AM

        Lawrence if you eat food, have home and auto insurance, pay property taxes, basically buy anything that one needs etc, etc leaving your money idle @ 5% your not even beating the cost of real inflation plus your paying the highest tax possible on interest gains when you withdraw your funds.

        What the government tells us is inflation versus the real street level inflation is like black and white

          May 10, 2015 10:01 AM

          Financial repression is obvious but people seems not wanting to do anything about it. It is frustrating.

          May 10, 2015 10:06 AM

          US has large debt burden so rasing interest rate is not helping the debtors. I Don’t see significant rate hike.

    May 10, 2015 10:03 AM

    interesting jj

    May 10, 2015 10:35 AM

    The dollar is technically set for a rally anyway, the questions are, how healthy will the move be and how will gold respond.

    Regardless, the dollar now gets my “sell the rally” rating not “buy the dip.”

      May 10, 2015 10:54 AM

      wmk, When The US dollar goes higher The Canadian dollar trends down which makes gold more attractive here, like Rick Rule said gold is in a bull market in every currency except The US dollar.

        May 10, 2015 10:20 AM

        Rick is obviously correct and gold bottomed against the USD when it was 87-88 and didn’t care that it went on to over 100. So the bull in USD terms is coming…

          May 10, 2015 10:36 AM

          Rick is 90% wrong! the only currency that has gold in a clear bull market vs its currency value is $Yen, not CAD, EUR, AUD GBP or CHF, have a look at the last 5 years, you can change it from CAD to the above currencies beside the 20Y….clearly one mans definition of a bull market varies big time, price trumps everything!

            May 10, 2015 10:59 AM

            I don’t think anyone expects a technical definition from Rule; as far as I know, he’s not a chart guy. But, the cad, aud, and eur, all moved up more than 20% from their lows and many consider that to be what it takes to call a new bull. Remember when gold was finally down 20%+ and the msm went on about how it is now officially in a bear market.

            Several currencies bottomed in late 2013 and have made higher intermediate term highs, so Rick is not sticking his neck way out, imo.

            May 10, 2015 10:07 PM


            May 10, 2015 10:12 PM

            NOW GOLD IN EURO +- NOW 34000 1 KG TOP 42000 TO 44500 ! LAST 2 MOND’S 36000 EURO ! WAS TOP ONLY LITTEL THIME !

      May 10, 2015 10:00 AM

      The past year buying the dips was the correct trade not selling into rallies just as one should trade any bull market trend, late Dec into mid Jan gold and the $ traded together, higher

      The real tandem trade has been $TNX and gold

    May 10, 2015 10:28 PM

    Some great thoughts this weekend on the Korelin Report. I’ve purchased PMs in the past but haven’t for a good 5 years added to my position except for a small amount at the end of 2014. It’s interesting to read the ongoing debate about gold and it’s relevance in our new age. I’m a simple man and all I know is the past history of the PM metals and the markets. I know that gold has been treated as a store of value through the centuries. I know the gold price over years is related to the printing of fiat currencies. I know that Russia, China, and India make up 3 countries in the BRICS and that they also make up 40% of the global population and 25% of the global land mass—for some unknown reason their central banks, sovereign governments and people have an affinity for that shiny gold metal. I know that markets and their sectors swing from overbought to underbought and then overbought again. I know that market and sector sentiments shift from time period to time period. I know that PMs have been moving down for 31/2 years and PM stocks are bottom scraping and yawned at. I know that the ECB and Japanese banks are now printing a large amount of their currencies. I know that in all likelihood the Federal Reserve will again be forced in the future to figure out new ways to print many more dollars. I know that many of the PM mines will be forced out of business in the near future and that some with good established deposits but no money raising ability will be purchased by more liquid mines. I know there will be a decreasing amount of PMs mined in the near future and supply will lessen over time.I know I’ve been around long enough to have seen populations suddenly rushing the doors of dealers to purchase shiny metal when confidence in one’s currency and government was compromised. I’m just a simple man. I will be purchasing more of the metal in the future even though at this time I will continue to take increasingly more positions in solvent PM miners.

      May 10, 2015 10:52 PM

      FABULOSO! Thanks Doc – I agree 1000%

      May 10, 2015 10:59 PM

      Wheat your NR 1 LOVE PM stock DOC ? Eve i may ask you ?

      May 10, 2015 10:25 PM

      Agree 100% with you Doc.
      I will add this: The enormous gap between what US leaders do in the world and what Americans think their leaders are doing is one of the great propaganda
      accomplishments of the dominant political mythology.

    May 10, 2015 10:48 PM

    OK – Here is my consolidated list of Silver Companies and ETFs sorted by US ticker symbol. Please let me know if I am missing anything. Much appreciated!!


      May 10, 2015 10:03 PM

      Add (SSVFF) Southern Silver Exploration to that list….very speculative, but I’m trying to make this silver list all-inclusive.

      May 10, 2015 10:43 PM

      Also add (VNARF) Vena Resources as they have a lot going on, but silver is their primary resource.

    May 10, 2015 10:48 PM

    Doc, I know nothing about everything!

    I have no clue where gold is headed, never have, I use the chart to tell me when I should be long and when I should be short, very simple, currently short the miners as of Fri and oil after selling my long miners and oil positions.

    Gold is ONLY 4 % away from closing below its low close of $1140 since its Sept 2011 highs, and when/if it does it will be pure entertainment for me to hear once again all the so called gold exports explain why they are wrong yet again calling golds trend.

    I’m a simple man and when/if gold breaks down and the miners I will add to my short positions and IF gold and the miners can break out I’ll get long and add when the past resistance areas that are sooooo many on the chart fall 1 by 1 I’ll add to my long positions, as this simple guy has no idea where gold is headed, never have.

    I’ll continue to make % gains trading both long and short, maybe gold will be $500 one day or $5000 I have no idea, nor do I really care, but I do know I won’t be positioned on the wrong side.

    Good luck everyone!

      May 10, 2015 10:54 PM

      very good comments Original JJ. Stay nimble and may your trades go swimmingly well.

    May 10, 2015 10:13 PM

    Nowhere do I see too much optimism, the damage done by low interest rates means the government and The Fed will and do try to keep the system from crashing by buying time with situations they know are viable short term but a disaster long term. They are undoubtedly using stock market profits to stimulate the economy, without direct stimulus which some here have talked about.
    We are living in an altered world which calls for new adjustments, new ideas, and a new order of values. But I believe a major depression is already underway. DT

    May 10, 2015 10:16 PM

    Something that should be noted with PM stocks is the fact that almost all if not all the stocks that have moved higher are gold producers and not silver producers.

      May 10, 2015 10:26 PM

      Most non western governments are trying to put themselves on a gold basis, the orient does not see silver in that light, if they did it would be viewed as more than an industrial metal. Who really is doing the buying follow the money.

        May 10, 2015 10:29 PM

        The rest of the world consumes Silver for electronic, solar, medical, aerospace, and other industrial reasons, so unlike Gold, Silver is not as beholden to Chindia.

          May 10, 2015 10:34 PM

          Gold bullion and bars is much more of a play for insurance against Central Bankers and long term investment, while gold jewelry is still an important secondary driver of demand.

          Silver, gets some of the bid for precious metals, but also gets the bid as a key industrial metal, so it’s drivers are different and while it is often lumped along with Gold and does tend to correlate often, there are plenty of times where the spot prices diverge, and more importantly where the Silver miners will out-perform or under-perform Gold miners. So if you follow the money for Silver, you can not discount industrial demand.

          May 10, 2015 10:46 PM

          I am Chinese and I like silver more than gold. But for now Chinese buy gold as a symbol of wealth not as money so gold is more expensive and fit to show off.

          When people treat metals as money, silver will come to play.

      May 10, 2015 10:28 PM

      Yes, but I believe Silver stocks will outperform Gold stocks when the commodity markets do put in their major bottom, and a number of the silver miners out-performed the gold stocks in Jan/Feb, but sold off harder in March/April. This is natural for Silver to outperform on the upside and downside.

        May 10, 2015 10:37 PM

        What was natural in the past is no longer, at the beginning of The Great Depression gold moved to The United States and France, it no longer goes there because we don’t value gold, so that leaves The Orient. The East sees silver as a secondary metal (industrial) so the price is paralyzed. DT

          May 10, 2015 10:06 PM

          I follow you there on the flow of Gold from West to East DT. My point with Silver that it is being consumed globally in a more diversified way than Gold. There is still some growth in the ole’West (US/Canada/Europe), but think how much growth there is in emerging markets in the entire continent of South America, Africa, and Asia…. and there is more to Asia than just China – how about Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Singapore, Indonesia, Taiwan, Vietnam, S. Korea, Myanmar, and Russia. Many analysts get China & India & Japan tunnel vision when they look at Asia, and totally leave off South America and Africa when talking development and growth.

          May 10, 2015 10:45 PM

          DT, don’t worry about silver. It will catch up to gold and looks better than gold right now.
          Silver is directionally extremely correlated to gold and its main driver is not industrial demand. We know this because the above ground supply (stock) is at least 20 times annual production (flow). Since production has been falling, the stock to flow might be more like 30 or 40 at this point (30 or 40 years of above ground supply). Copper’s stock-to-flow is miniscule by comparison.

            May 10, 2015 10:55 PM

            Matthew, while I agree that Silver and Gold do have a nice correlation, there are still many days where they also trade uncorrelated, and silver will trade on those like a base metal. I am not familiar with the amounts of above ground silver being 20 or 30 times annual production. Are you counting all the investment coins and bars in those figures, or the amount of silver that is actually available for industrial use? I remember hearing much different figures for the amount of above ground silver that is actually available for industrial use and it was something like 2-3 years. I may be mistaken on that, but 20-30 years of supply sounds a bit high to me.

            May 10, 2015 10:59 PM

            Here is an interesting short article from on Silver from Alasdair Macleod

            By Alasdair Macleod
            Posted 02 December 2014

            “Supply and demand

            Silver is commonly accepted as a monetary metal, but nowadays its principal use is industrial. According to The Silver Institute, supply of mine and scrap recycling totals 980 million ounces, while physical demand is 1,080 million ounces, of which about 246 million is bars and coins. Silver’s characteristics are hard to substitute by using other metals, so the silver price can increase somewhat without reducing industrial demand.

            Valuing silver

            Isaac Newton set the monetary relationship between gold and silver at 15.5 times when he was Master of the Royal Mint nearly 300 years ago. When silver and gold were in circulation as monetary metals the relationship generally held between 14-16 times. Today the ratio is about 73 times.

            If the gold price rises to reflect growing uncertainty about the purchasing power of government currencies, it stands to reason that silver will also rise towards Newton’s monetary relationship. However, this would require lost industrial demand at far higher prices to be absorbed by sales of coins and bars.

            Silver’s price volatility relative to gold is about two times, so in a rising market a good way to get price leverage on gold is to buy silver. This should interest buyers who feel they have missed the bottom of the gold market and want to catch up on the implied loss. Of course, if the price of gold falls, the losses in silver can be expected to be correspondingly greater.

            Following the end of the gold standard and its replacement with government currencies, there have been many occasions when gold ownership has been banned. Today this may seem unlikely, but confiscation may become increasingly possible if monetary conditions deteriorate in the future. As silver is predominantly an industrial metal, it should offer protection against this possibility.”

            May 10, 2015 10:03 PM

            The line that struck me was the following:

            “According to The Silver Institute, supply of mine and scrap recycling totals 980 million ounces, while physical demand is 1,080 million ounces, of which about 246 million is bars and coins.”

            Supply = 980 ounce per year
            Demand = 1,080 ounce per year (which means their is a supply deficit each year)
            Investment Coinage & Bars = 246 (this means investment demand is 23% of total demand and industrial use is 77% of demand).

            May 10, 2015 10:36 PM

            In the Peter Schiff Article I posted in the thread above this one he has slightly different figures for the industrial use in 2013.

            “In the year 2000, industrial uses
            accounted for a little more than 40%
            of global silver demand. By 2013,
            that had grown to 54%. Looking
            ahead, the demand for silver in
            industrial applications is projected
            to grow by 27% over the next four
            years. This staggering growth tells
            us that silver is entering an exciting
            new era of utility.

            However, based on the article from Alasdair Macleod being more recent and using 2014 figures from the Silver Institute, then it looks like Schiff’s numbers were too low for the industrial component, which is really at 77% of overall demand. However, he did expect an increase of 27% in 4 years (from the number he used of 54% industrial demand) so maybe it happened sooner than he was expecting.

            May 10, 2015 10:50 PM

            I googled it and this right off the bat. Stock to flow of 20 in 2010 when silver was flying high. How much it has risen due to production falling off, I don’t know, but 20 years of supply puts silver firmly in the “money camp.”

            May 10, 2015 10:56 PM
            May 10, 2015 10:58 PM

            …then look at this ($GYX is the S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index):

            May 10, 2015 10:06 PM

            Adam Hamilton (Zeal, llc) pointed out recently that:

            “Since the dawn of 2013 when the Fed’s epic QE3 anomaly got underway, silver and gold have had a correlation r-square of 94.7%! That means nearly 95% of silver’s daily price action is directly explainable by gold’s daily price action, or vice versa. And there’s zero doubt about the direction of causality, gold is driving silver and not the other way around. This truth isn’t evident in a chart, it comes from experience.”

            May 10, 2015 10:14 PM

            On the chart above that compares silver to the industrial metals, notice how often the correlation goes very negative, particularly since 2014 (panel below the price chart).

            May 10, 2015 10:35 PM

            Lots of good information WMK. Thanks.

            As for the stock to flow rate on Silver, I see the point the author was making, and how there are more limited supplies in most of the base metals. However, that article also was using all of the gold and silver ever mined. Again, there is a big difference in supply of all Silver (the total stock) and the amount that is actually available for industrial use, as the coins and bars are out of circulation and horded for personal or institutional investment. That was my point, that the 20 years supply included all of it, but the actual available Silver for industrial, coinage, and jewelry demand was in deficit 6 of the 10 years between 2004- 2013 on the supply demand year over year numbers on the Silver Institute website.


            May 10, 2015 10:45 PM

            OK WMK – That Adam Hamilton article was pretty good. Thanks again for posting that one was well. It seems like his point is that since QE3 that there has been a new paradigm where Gold and Silver are acting in a 94.7% lockstep, as you noted in your response. I guess they are even more correlated than I realized and I would have guessed that they were more like 80% correlated.

            That’s a great article, and he also stated Silver has primarily Industrial demand, but pointed out the investor sentiment overwhelms those forces in the passage below:

            “Silver is a fascinating market. It’s undeniably primarily an industrial metal, as the latest annual data from the world’s leading authority on silver supply and demand shows. The venerable Silver Institute reports that fully 54% of global silver demand in 2013, and 62% in 2012, was for industrial fabrication. In those same years, worldwide investment demand (coins, bars, ETFs) accounted for just 23% and 20% respectively.

            Nevertheless, for millennia silver has also attracted investors as a precious metal and governments as a hard currency. From time to time silver captivates investors again, and they flood into this relatively tiny market and bid silver prices sharply higher. These large investment-demand spikes quickly overwhelm the normally-dominant industrial demand, which is naturally slow to change. So silver is catapulted higher.” – Adam Hamilton

            I guess that’s why we still call them both Precious Metals 🙂

            May 10, 2015 10:56 PM

            BTW Matthew – You are great and I love the research man. I learned a lot in this discussion.

            I just wanted to make the case, that the actual available Silver for use is much lower than the overall supply, and that in a demand crunch (from investment sentiment most likely) this would drive the value of the miners up. Silver miners have silver in the ground that can fuel a short term (1-4 year) spike in demand for ETFS, coins, bars, jewelry, and industrial use. Much of the above ground stockpiles are buried away with investors never to see the light of day again, unless pricing goes so parabolic that they sell it back into the market as much higher prices.

            I think the supply demand crunch will become quite obvious over the next few years, and if you couple this with a general rise in all commodities over the next few years (especially Gold) then it has a bright future, and so do the related miners.

            Have a good one!!

            May 10, 2015 10:42 PM

            Hoarded silver has to be included in the above ground supply because it IS available for industrial use IF the price is right. This above ground stock is precisely what makes silver (and gold) different than copper. A true shortage can develop in copper but not in silver or gold. In other words, shortages in silver and gold are due to price alone whereas with copper, there can be a true lack of mined metal.

            We all know that silver’s industrial demand is greater than the its investment demand, but that doesn’t mean that it is the ultimate price driver. Do you believe that there would be much supply made available at lower prices if industrial demand went away? I really don’t think so, at least not for an extended period. In fact, it would make sense that investment demand would rise since it would then be much more like big brother gold.
            BUT, if investment demand went away, the price would get crushed for a very long time as decades of production would hit the market. At 78 to 1, the silver-copper ratio is greater than the gold-silver ratio. Would this still be the case without investment demand?

            Then there’s backwardation. It is normal for commodities in general but not for the monetary metals, gold and silver. Contango is the norm for them.

            May 10, 2015 10:43 PM

            Hey thanks, Shad, you too!

            May 10, 2015 10:58 PM

            That article you just posted “The Last Contango In Washington” was incredibly well written, and was a great post (and while it is from 2006, it is just a relevant today)

            The author does talk about how the total supply of silver could be accessed at any time if needed by investment demand surges, and talked about the disparity physical and the paper markets, and the difference in base metals versus precious metals between contango and backwardation. A great read. Thanks again!

            May 11, 2015 11:22 AM

            “truth is not evident in the charts , it comes with experience”……..good one, I agree WMF………..THE BOOT.

    May 10, 2015 10:50 PM

    By Rick Ackerman
    Commentary for the week beginning May 11
    What can a state government do if it owes its retired workers vastly more in pension benefits than it will ever be able to pay? The answer, as far as the Illinois Supreme Court is concerned, is that the state will simply have to squeeze blood from a stone when the inevitable fiscal crisis hits. And it surely will, since the gap between tax revenues and pension obligations is conservatively estimated at $111 billion. Illinois doesn’t have that kind of money lying around, and probably never will. So what then? My expectation is that the court’s decision last week invalidating cost savings that were implemented in 2013 will eventually lead to rioting in the streets and a civil war that pits taxpayers against public-employee unions.

    Unions Won’t Budge

    From a political standpoint, the irresistible force is about to meet the immovable object. The public-employee unions won’t budge, especially now that the state’s highest court is on their side, rejecting even modest budgetary measures that would seek to avoid bankruptcy. The court wouldn’t even countenance scaling back a COLA adjustment that has been compounding at 3% since 1989. For its part, the government will be able claim, with complete honesty, that the money simply isn’t there. The predictable “compromise” will be a court order effectively requiring Illinois to raise taxes until there is enough money to support the retirees forever. Well before then, however, taxpayers will begin to exit Illinois with the urgency of North African refugees. Even now, one out of every four dollars that Illinois workers pay in taxes goes to pension benefits for retired public employees.

    Can you see where this is leading? Trouble is, there are probably at least two dozen other states whose pension assumptions are nearly as shaky as those of Illinois. Indeed, when the Great Pension Bust that is surely coming starts to unfold in California and New York, it will make the fiscal problems of Illinois look like a hill of beans. To put things in perspective, consider the budget woes of Flint, Michigan. To remedy a recurring annual deficit of about $20 million (and growing), the city has slashed services and amenities almost to nothing. Even so, the long-term structural budget problem – chiefly the shortfall between revenues and pension obligations – reportedly exceeds $500 million.

    As Flint goes, so goes the nation?

    I thought this interesting enough to post for anyone not receiving Ricks picks.
    Hope Rick doesn’t mind.

    May 10, 2015 10:31 PM

    BOYS ! Now real insanity will start you can’t deny ! repent !

    May 10, 2015 10:17 PM

    What if ya don’t have anything to repent about Franky?
    Do ya still gotta repent?

    May 10, 2015 10:34 PM

    Take real estate in Alberta almost nobody could see the price of oil tanking but what has really happened is Alberta’s boom and bust economy and just like the great land boom in Florida around 1925 the real Black Swan will be when interest rates start hiking, Florida initially got wiped out by a hurricane but the financial storm has yet to reach our shores in the form of more expensive money. DT

      May 10, 2015 10:36 PM
      May 10, 2015 10:24 PM

      Oil can crash and recover. The real worry is NDP government. It never happened in Alberta before. From the experience of other provinces, it could mean disaster for the province. I came from a socialist country and know full well how damaging a socialist government could be.

        May 10, 2015 10:58 PM

        Lawrence, not voting for the NDP means you support bill c51, the economic action plan and the beyond boarder action plan. In other words, a police state.
        Sure, NDP or socialism has its issues, but look at the option.

          May 11, 2015 11:32 AM

          I think you talk about federal , this is provincial. Provincial PC was founded by peter lougheed and later improved by Ralph Klein. they are not same party with federal PC. Problem for provincial PC is it has had two bad premiers and increasingly arrogant and beauracratic.
          So I have been voting wild rose. This time I voted provincial conservatives Just hoping NDP does not win. Economy is most essential which affect our lives. Only free market tends to give you both freedom and prosperity. Socialism usually control everything. That is how they achieve socialism. NDP has not only issues, they bring death to economy. Several provinces have learnt it.

            May 11, 2015 11:18 AM

            Prentice worked with Harper, or so he said, I asked both the PC and Liberal provincial parties if they supported bill c51, both were resoundingly yes.
            NDP no. I didn’t ask wild rose.

            In once sense it matters who gets in, in another, it makes no difference, not enough people understand or care enough to change anything anyway.
            I can only explain why I voted NDP and not Conservative or Liberal.
            Our vote probably counts as much as an American vote in the states anyway.
            As in “it doesn’t”.

            May 11, 2015 11:34 AM

            Bb, if you are albertan, we got price to pay. We benefited from others provinces going NDP. now we are going to give it back. I am going back to wild from now on. I am risking my job, my properties and investment with NDP. I know what socialism can do. I tasted it.

            I supported Prentice in his leadership race and MLA from my riding. I door knocked for him and called on my friends to support him. I guess it is waste of time. He is not better than Redford. It is not for anything, just to prevent Alberta from turning socialism.

            May 11, 2015 11:36 AM

            Sorry, I mean I am going back to Wild Rose.

            May 11, 2015 11:25 PM

            I understand Lawrence, cant blame you. I was actually pro Justin until he said he supports bill c51 etc, the police state.
            I just don’t know if really matters one way or another.
            Its the bankers calling the shots not the polititians anyway.

    May 10, 2015 10:06 PM

    I know what I would do if buying precious metal was a priority but Shad and Matthew are two well informed people and I can only respect their opinions. DT

      May 10, 2015 10:00 PM

      Thanks DT. I definitely respect your opinion as well 🙂

      I’d listen to Matthew as he is much smarter and a much better trader than I am.

        May 10, 2015 10:12 PM

        I agree, Shad -except for your last sentence. 😮

    May 10, 2015 10:12 PM
    May 10, 2015 10:08 PM

    Thanks for having Marin Katusa on the weekend show guys, his new website has had me be doing some reading there this weekend.

    BTW Big Al, your speech is getting noticibly better.
    Congrats on your recovery so far & take care of yourself !

    May 11, 2015 11:58 AM

    Birdman you around?

      May 11, 2015 11:17 PM

      Anywho….Bird…We were talking Oil and I dumped my positions last week…Good thing. Some gold shares are shaping up….