The Fed announcement and the markets reaction
Hour 1:
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Hour 2:
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Hour 1:
- Segment 1: Michael Belkin of The Belkin Report kicks off the show with comments on the Fed announcement and the markets reaction.
- Segment 2: Avi Gilburt from the ElliottWaveTrader.net website discusses his outlook on gold.
- Segment 3: We get an update on Theralase from the CEO and President Roger Dumoulin-White.
- Segment 4: Byron King of Agora Financial joins us to discuss how gold is impacted by the Fed decision.
Hour 2:
- Segment 5: Trader Vic is back with his comments on the Fed and the markets impression of its actions.
- Segment 6: Jeff Pontius, CEO of Corvus Gold, discusses his thoughts on the rise in the gold market and the latest from Corvus Gold.
- Segment 7-8: Glen Downs, Chief of Staff for Congressman Walter Jones, Richard Postma, AKA Doc, and Jay Taylor of Gold, Energy & Tech Stocks, discusses the FOMC decision to not hike rates. The round table continues with our thoughts on the Republican debate last week.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Denver Gold Forum may be listened to at:
http://www.denvergoldforum.org/dgf15/live-archived-presentation-stream/webcast-live-stream/
Enjoy.
Thanks professor!
Great to have you with us Bob!
Agreed that the sections with Michael Belkin and Avi Gilburt were quite interesting. It was also nice to hear Trader Vic’s thoughts on the markets. Good show to all involved!
Potential guest speaker ideas: Sid Norris from Elliot Wave Predictions, David Gurwitz from Charles Nenner Research, Tiho Brkan from Short Side of Long, Jordan Roy-Byrne from The Daily Gold, or maybe Eric Coffin?
____________________________________________________
Here’s the latest interview with Eric Coffin from Palisade Radio:
Eric Coffin: Base Metals or Precious Metals?
BY COLLIN KETTELL ON SEPTEMBER 13, 2015
http://palisaderadio.com/eric-coffin-base-metals-or-precious-metals/
…..or Morris Hubbartt, Bob Hoye, Stewart Thomson, Clive Maund, Puru Saxena, Gary Wagner, or even Scott Gibson.
T-Bonds & US Dollar Shortsale Opportunity Video Analysis
Morris Hubbart – Super Force Precious Metals Video Analysis
posted Sep 18, 2015 on 321gold
http://www.superforcesignals.com/video/2015sept17dollar/2015sept17dollar.html
Gold & Silver Trading Range Comparison Video AnalysisMorris Hubbart – Super Force Precious Metals Video Analysis
posted Sep 18, 2015 on 321gold
http://www.superforcesignals.com/video/2015sept17gold/2015sept17gold.html
GDX, GDXJ, & GLDX Upside Rally Video Analysis
Morris Hubbart – Super Force Precious Metals Video Analysis
posted Sep 18, 2015 on 321gold
http://www.superforcesignals.com/video/2015sept17gdxj/2015sept17gdxj.html
Swing Trade Charts Video Analysis
Morris Hubbart – Super Force Precious Metals Video Analysis
posted Sep 18, 2015 on 321gold
http://www.superforcesignals.com/video/2015sept17tt/2015sept17tt.html
Key Precious Metal Stocks Upside Breakout Video Analysis
Morris Hubbartt – Super Force Precious Metals Video Analysis
posted Sep 18, 2015 on 321gold
http://www.superforcesignals.com/video/2015sept17keystocks/2015sept17keystocks.html
Companies covered in that last video with Morris Hubbartt are:
Hecla, Alamos, Endeavour Silver, Guyana Goldfields, Harmony, McEwen Mining.
Neat!
Point well taken, Exelcior.
Off Topic:
I was not surprised, but was disgusted by the media bias in the republican debates.
I am talking about both us and European media bias.
I used to think the BBC gave all sides of issues, but it is now, in my opinion, disgustingly liberal and stupidly ignorant.
e.g. in discussing immigration into Europe, bringing up Geneva Convention……clearly evident the reporter had NEVER read the Geneva Convention. Describing the immigrants always as “refugees”. THje Facts are that 470,000 immigrants have entered the European continent in the last year to June 2015, 230,0000 made it to Germany, of which 43,000 were Syrians. Many coming from croatia, Macedonia, Turkey, Slovenia, etc…..not areas of civil war and thus NOT refugees, under any normal definition of refugee.
In discussing the debates, I was shocked at how Jeb Bush was pushed and other republicans dissed. It was almost as if the reporters were not listening to the debates. I was also shocked at how much was focussed on Trump. I know he is leading in the poles, but he was certainly given attacking, try to trip up, questions.
And not much on serious economics was discussed.
Couldn’t agree more. CNN was labeled the Clown’s News Network for the obnoxious questions introduced by the moderator that wasted everyone’s time.
The moderator was just fishing for negative sound bites on behalf of the Left to be used in the general election. Too bad some of the candidates took the bait. They’d all be smarter and look more presidential if they slapped back at the moderator instead of each other. Those questions had nothing to do with economic or geopolitical policies or anything else of substance. They were simply designed to provoke lose-lose back and forth snits.
I completely agree bj
I have to agree with you Professor. He has Ideas but he is ‘m along conservatives look like buffoons. Who knows, maybe that is the idea!
All major MSM is owned or controlled by Marxist/totalitarian globalists. Of course there’s a “left” bias. Anyone who thinks that a real conservative could ever be elected needs to have their head examined. Notice that not one of the current crop of RINO wannabes talks about ending the Fed? And Trump with his support of the Marxist progressive income tax? There’s nothing conservative about that guy.
There has been a concerted effort in the media to sell forced mass immigaration to the foolish people of the UK, after the recent election in which UKIP got a decent slice of the vote but did not make an impact by getting MPs. UKIP and other dissenters have been on the back foot since. Nigel Farage is not in the European or British parliaments to give that voice.
The media have played the people the full treatment with the dead Syrian boy story in the most cyclical manner to be expected of them. They played it for all it was worth. They never let a crisis or tragedy go to waste.
Europe will destroy itself and a new culture and wealth will emerge somewhere else, eventually. Why worry? It’s just the end of an empire. From here in the UK, I see that life is going to get a lot more difficult piece by piece for the rest of my life, however long I live, especially anywhere in the western world. The noose is tightening every day.
Editor: Please delete the above.
Corrected comment:
There has been a concerted effort in the media to sell forced mass immigaration to the foolish people of the UK, after the recent election in which UKIP got a decent slice of the vote but did not make an impact by getting MPs. UKIP and other dissenters have been on the back foot since. Nigel Farage is not in the European or British parliaments to give that voice.
The media have given the people the full treatment with the dead Syrian boy story in the most cynical manner, which is to be expected of them. They played it for all it was worth. They never let a crisis or tragedy go to waste.
Europe will destroy itself and a new culture and wealth will emerge somewhere else, eventually. Why worry? It’s just the end of an empire. From here in the UK, I see that life is going to get a lot more difficult, piece by piece, for the rest of my life, however long I live. This is probably true anywhere in the western world and many other places. The noose is tightening every day.
I am definitely on the short side hedged using SH, but on long side with a few enenergy stocks and many precious metal stocks.
I am expecting volatitlity, hence no aggressive shorting, just SH.
I am not a trader of stocks, because I actually have a life away from the computer.
Yamada always worth listening to:
http://www.financialsense.com/financial-sense-newshour/louise-yamada/markets-becoming-fragile
Thar was a very depressing interview CFS. Louise outlook is about as negative as it can get. She is basically saying take chips off the table and go to cash. Even where gold is concerned she said it was not a trade right now.
But for something a lot more uplifting you need to tune in to Ned Schmidt who comes later in the interview at the 34:30 mark. Man, he is on fire about gold and commodities and made some pretty memorable comments. It is an understatement to say he is excited about agriculture, gold and other commodities.
He could just be talking his book though. Ned is in the newsletter business so keep that in mind.
Thanks for that caveat.
The irony is that the dollar decline does not necessarily mean higher commodity prices. The caveat to that would be higher inflation expectations plus lower interest rates means commodities should stabilize. Commodities prices are much higher than where they were in 2000.
Gold would be the exception due to declining interest rates vs. higher inflation.
Do you agree with me that this could be the time of a major shift change?
We’re at the attenuation of the mining bear market, while the gold price index began to rally in 2000. Gold miners have seen a very rocky road.
I think that a bear market I the major indexes can last for years, it really depends on how any specific player is doing in any sector. It will all be about fiscal rectitude and yield.
As far as US Presidential campaign, a “strong man” is just as dangerous as a man known as the elite’s candidate. Top-down leadership can only go so far against The Machine known as bureaucracy, the Military-Industrial Complex, Big Money, etc. The President acting on his own has not been allowed since Woodrow Wilson’s capitulations. I fail to know of a parallel in US Presidencies to Donald Trump winning. The two R/D elite candidates, however, are well-known in US history. But world history in Europe and South America are filled with “strong men” and their results.
Thanks Mr Pace
No one seems to have noticed that currently gold is holding up better than silver…….in my opinion, that is very negative for the economy.
Failures to deliver in Treasuries is indicating NAKED shorting going on in Treasuries.
Some traders were expecting a raise in interest rates and got burned!
Shorting treasuries is a fools’ game. The Fed will protect the government bond market at the expense of everything else, that means everything. It the US debt market crashes, the government crashes…and there is no where to run and no where to hide for anyone.
The limitation of the Fed buying its own Treasuries is the size of the Federal Reserve Balance. They cannot buy all
True, but they can print, print, print money forever.
This mess takes me just prior to the mortgage back security fiasco. A mortgage broker friend (legitimate insider) would just shake his head to me in amazement and say something like: “The money is coming from Wall Street and we’re being told to write the deals!…” And to this day, I’m not sure the shadow banking nonsense is anywhere close to over; it’s just being ignored by the media hacks.
With that in the shadows, regarding treasuries, the Fed can print money to the moon to buy, buy, buy.
That’s why we need to audit the Fed, and that’s why our Congress doesn’t won’t force the issue. I don’t see any way out of this without a catastrophic crash like never before.
Right on BJ
Kranzler on bullion banks
CFS . . . with all due respect, how does one take Kranzler seriously anymore. He has been saying the same thing week after week, and has been wrong week after week for years.
Thanks guys. Although a year old Corvus’ strategy remains investor centred, hence its strength.
http://thedailygold.com/update-corvus-gold-ceo-jeff-pontius-2/
worthless info concerning the FED………
Worthless Fed, I should say…….
Perhaps losing credibility?
Question mark? Big Al….remember we discussed this in 2012 when we first met in person…..back then we said the -the dollar is dying a slow death.
Yes we did!
TRUMP………….is a F/U…against the existing political system…..Miles Franklin
I enjoyed the talk with Roger and would have a question for him based on his feedback. He is stating that he wants to list Theralase on the Nasdaq once the share price reaches 2 dollars; are they planning to issue new shares for the Nasdaq or transfer the ones from the TSX Venture? As a shareholder I would certainly prefer the second option to minimize the dilution. This should also be in the interest of Roger, in order for him to stay a major shareholder of the company…..
It has nothing to do with a transfer. The existing shares are simply tradable on the Nasdaq system.
To add to my previous comment: A confirmation from Roger on the second option would certainly provide a substantial push to the share price, since all would want to be invested prior to the transfer.
We’re about where we were in 2003, with no commodities bull market in front of us due to the implosion of BRIC, higher inflation expectations, lower interest rates, and a stock market rout.
And a rally in God prices in all currencies.
Gold prices.
If you’re right, even the senior gold miners could double in the months straight ahead. I believe that is likely.
You base your opinions on technical which I respect. I am a fundamentalist. I believe that you expertise and mine will coincide.
I appreciate all your input, my friend!
Al, I actually have a great deal of respect for the fundamentals. In fact, when it comes to most of my mining plays, a “boots on the ground” understanding come above all else. THEN I apply the charts.
I try to get an advantage using whatever I can but if all I did was trade the ETFs, then I would probably use the charts exclusively.
Great comments on the importance in fundamentals for individual companies, and then using charts to clarify when to take a position, versus just tracking the ETFs, which can be done using just the technical analysis.
For anyone anticipating gold mining investments, you have to start at surface and be in production:
Large miners with huge debts are out.
FranSix – Good article and I’m a fan of Kirkland Lake.
Very possible, Matthew
RAND PAUL…….is not going to make it……….He is so…..2008…..TEAPARTY went and gone.
I agree Mr Moscow.
Jerry,
Your right….the only guy with any brains is Ben Carson…but nobody has the personal tools to handle what is coming…brutal!
thanks SD, AND OWL……………….
CANADIANS HAVE NO VOICE IN THE US POLITICAL SYSTEM…….STAY WITH THE QUEEN.
Jerry ootb, the political situation in The US affects the rest of the world, our government follows your governments lead, so we all need to be concerned and pay attention to US politics.
DT,
The Good Lord help us!!!
That is the problem DT…….the US has no business in the rest of the world. When someone can not manage their own household, they have no business in telling anyone else, how to handle their……………
+1
ditto 2
I agree The US should not be telling other countries how to govern but The US is still dominant economically and like it or not we can’t separate the two.
Amen, Frank.
DOC IS SPOT ON CONCERNING TRUMP………..
Not sure I agree with the concept of “well run” miners, everything is relative I guess.
For me, Im interested in profitable, “well run” or not, companies that fall below profitable “tank” pretty quick, a far as I have seen anyway.
If you watch close, you see a share price drop little by little as profitability weakens, and as soon as it hits the point its not profitable, down she goes.
If Doc is right, gold drops from Dec-July, most, as in just about all miners will be losing money head over tea kettle, share prices should “drop like ur dreamin”, if you buy a miner that can sustain the losses long enough for gold to actually turn up, well, you might have a gold mine.
Suggestions………When having guest speakers……let them speak…….jmho
Your not the first to suggest that Frank and I agree.
thanks bb……..we finally agree on something…. (just kidding)….have a great day… 🙂
Point well take.
Prosperity is more than debt it is more than trade, it is an economic conditioning of the mind. Bull markets are brought about by a mass thinking and a mass doing. I think Doc is right traders will see that The Fed is waffling on interest rates and therefore not in control. Remember that old saying ” Don’t Fight The Fed”, and instead now we could see the markets affected by this sudden brutal shattering of hope. DT
DT,
It is ALL SENTIMENT……..the market says …the FED is clueless and is like an old song that is played so much it loses its luster – its pizazzzzz…just turn it off!!!
the FED IS ABOUT TO HAVE a….Shemetha………or is that SHE me tha-t was bad.
The Government and the Fed are the cause of the massive economic problems and now they stand in the way of letting the market sort everything out.
Your “mass thinking and mass doing” are tremendously negatively affected by that ever increasingly invasive and rapacious duo.
That may have changed on Thursday!
Doc mentions this country may not be able to change the direction its on.
Doc, there will be no change in direction, this direction has been happening minimum since 1913, it can be argued the direction has been from Lincolns assassination.
The people running things are entrenched, and the majority of population has no clue,
even if they did, its a democracy, they just get to voice their different opinions.
Those people running things will ensure the peoples democratic state,
And the people will love them for it, complain or not, democracy is the important thing.
Its the banks, people seem closer to understanding that, but still a long way from it.
Heck, the people understood better in the 30s when bank robbers were heroes.
The only opposition to the banks I have read about lately has been from Russia.
I guess I just dont believe there will be any change in direction for the states until it burns, maybe things change when rebuilding.
Correction: The direction has been from Lincoln’s ELECTION. He was a tyrant.
He began the process of enslaving everyone. Why do you think he is worshiped by both the Ds and the Rs?
+1
I was referring to the greenback, the idea of interest free currency will get you dead.
Actually, why the heck doesnt someone pose the question to the wonderful options of presidents? Think Trump or Sanders (anyone)will dare answer?
Think it makes any difference which one is elected?
Talk discuss opine educate yourself, go ahead, its a democracy, every one gets an opinion.
But absolutely no one will change a darn thing.
Well, maybe Im wrong, we have improved, we have indoor flush toilets we didnt used to have, maybe the bankers arent so bad after all. lol
Right! Darn it bit my tongue yet again!
The greenback was as immoral and tyrannical as any unbacked, centrally controlled money substitute. It is far more likely that he was killed for trying to cut the bakers out of the action (control).
People will never stop with their quick and simplistic conclusions. “This is bad so that must be good…” is not exactly scientific.
Example:
Try criticizing Obama and his fans will invariably say “yeah well, he’s better than Bush.”
It doesn’t dawn on these people that they don’t have any idea what I think of Bush OR that that’s not how you should measure competence!
The greenback still amounted to an unsecured debt and a tool of theft. Look at this political cartoon from the 1864 election.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/64/RunningtheMachine-LincAdmin.jpg
The guy running the printing press is thinking:
“These are the greediest fellows I ever saw. With all of my exertions, I can’t satisfy their pocket, though I keep the Mill going day and night.” —And he is right!
Meanwhile, on the far right, one of Lincoln’s men says:
“Officer! I am told that Snooks has called me “A Humbug.” Take this warrant and put him in Fort Lafayette. I’ll teach him to speak against the Government.”
—And that’s the hallmark of a totalitarian government.
Lincoln has enjoyed a lot of unwarranted praise for too long. The same goes for JFK.
Bravo analysis, bb.
Oh dear, Canada is getting its bottom spanked by Ireland in the rugby world cup in Cardiff.
England getting into their stride after Fiji warm-up, Bob?
Tie their bootlaces together.
As for Japan beating the Springboks……
EMERGING COMMERCE IN THE EAST IS SAY THIS: “We dont WANT A WORTHLESS paper debt instrument for goods and services!!! We want like for like – sweat for sweat;blood for blood and tears for tears….give of GOLD and (silver) for trade and screw the IOU’s……pretty much whats going on underneath all this non-sense!!
You can’t back away from Donald Trump, if you haven’t watched ” The Apprentice”, you are missing a great insight into Trump’s character. Trump see’s others weakness almost immediately and sets about exploiting them. If you are an opponent on the losing team Trump will ask those players who they would like to see fired and why. If you don’t aggressively defend yourself and also come up with the names of two other opponents on your team who should be fired instead of you and why, he soon shows that contestant the door or in his case a one way ride to the Airport in his limousine. Most of The Republican candidates chose not to confront The Donald, that was a big mistake on their part. You can’t avoid Trump you can only win or lose and the losers are very evident.
Jay and Doc, excellent comments on Trump.
Maybe he is the cowboy you need that isn’t a part of the old boys club?
Yes hes rough around the edges but take a look at good old polished Obama?
He’s a business man and pretty successful and thats who can make decisions. Hes less concerned and polished on how he says things but who cares?! Wheres the beef? Maybe he is clueless on foreign affairs but thats what advisors are for. You need to take care of the ranch first. Professional politicians suck at running business.
In Canada we need Jim Patterson at the helm But will never happen. Trump may surprise as a president.
That “cowboy” is puppet master approved. Don’t let his “style” fool you.
Matthew, we all must serve somebody, remember Dylan’s song.
Another very great tune Mr Tracy!
‘It may be the devil, it may be the Lord, but you’ve got to serve somebody’. The Gnostic side to my Christianity says it can be very hard always knowing the difference. Here we’ve got a Trump look-alike in Boris Johnson our current Mayor of London. Often looks and often sounds a bit buffoonish. But we should not be fooled. He too could end up as a successor to PM David Cameron.
Can’t disagree, Bill. I SIM ppl my feel that he is a very poor communicator.
Interesting point, Matthews.
I totally agree Al. Very weak there but can make decisions. Maybe can manage the loot a lot better?
I prefer someone that can do a job not act. Yes he has an Ego though.
I think of Trump as more of a playground bully (speaking at a 4th grade level) than a cowboy.
Obama is a highly polished speaker with prompts. Hows that worked out?
I completely agree, Brian
I think he is very much a part of the old boys club but a king maker gone rouge, and that’s what has all the good old boys on Wall Street and glad-handing politicians on edge. How could anyone be any worse than what we’ve had since Reagan?
Will the Reagan myth ever die?
Actually Reagan wasn’t all that great either. He lowered taxes, but forgot to keep the other half of that promise–he didn’t cut government spending. …And the model of fiscal malfeasance plagues us to this day. Reagan was just in the right place at the right time–when the USSR went bankrupt. He was lucky in that regard, beyond that happenstance, he didn’t amount to much. Still the Party faithful worship him notwithstanding that the Religious Right likes to cite the Ten Commandments–including the one about about worshiping false idols or other gods before God.
Indeed, the Republican Party is in search of itself. It’s elected officials stand for everything but the Party Platform.
It will be interesting to see how the next dozen months plays out.
Any opinion on Fiorina?
Fiorina is easily the smartest candidate running (on either side) but that doesn’t mean she’d bring any sanity to the DC circus.
I believe, Mr TRACY that he is in the process of killing his chances.
I understand how you feel Al, his approach doesn’t fit well with our politically correct society. He doesn’t need the funding that other candidates do so there might be some staying power. He is very shrewd at blatantly attacking his opponents to test their mettle, that usually doesn’t sit well with the established ways of doing things but these are not normal times.
No one is more against political correctness than I am, so that’s not a problem for me. Trump is simply no good (but no worse than his opponents!).
Trump would like that, Matthew you are not WUSS approved.
And by the way Matthew, the bill is in the mail. DT
Ha ha 😮
Testing their mettle – that is a little more than a little thought provoking!
Here’s a 200 day Composite Chart on the Gold Major Producers & Gold Streamers. (You can right click on the “200 day” button to select different time horizons).
Companies featured: Goldcorp, Barrick Gold, Agnico Eagle, Randgold, Newmont, Kinross, Yamana, Royal Gold, Franco-Nevada, and Sandstorm Gold.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?GG,ABX,AEM,GOLD,NEM,KGC,AUY,RGLD,FNV,SAND#
Here’s a 200 day Composite Chart on the Gold Mid-Tier Producers:
Companies featured: Detour Gold, Gold Fields, Anglogold Ashanti, Alamos Gold, Primero Mining, Lake Shore Gold, Iamgold, Kirkland Lake Gold, Klondex, Richmont.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?DRGDF,GFI,AU,AGI,PPP,LSG,IAG,KGILF,KLNDF,RIC#
Here’s a 200 day Composite Chart on the Gold Small and Mid-Tier Producers:
Companies featured: Argonaut Gold, McEwen Mining, B2Gold, Rubicon Minerals, Semafo, New Gold, Harmony Gold mining, Sibanye Gold, OceanaGold, and Eldorado Gold.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?ARNGF,MUX,BTG,RBY,SEMFF,NGD,HMY,SBGL,OCANF,EGO#
Another 10 company composite chart – Small Gold producers & Gold explorers:
Companies featured: Centerra Gold, Oceanagold, Dundee Precious Metals, Aurico Gold, Alacer Gold, Centamin Egypt, Guyana Goldfields, Asanko gold, NovaGold, Klondex, and Kirkland Lake. (all Canadian tickers on this one).
This 10 company composite chart is of some of the speculative Gold Jr Mining small producers, near producers and explorers (potential takeover targets – Romarco is in the process of a takeover since last update BTW).
Companies featured: Lydian Int’l, GoGold Resources, Golden Queen, Balmoral Resources, Torex Gold, Romarco Minerals, Garibaldi Resources, Exeter Resource, Rye Patch Gold, and Luna Gold.
*Here’s a bonus 200 day composite chart of the Precious Metals ETFs contrasted in a 200 day Composite Chart.
Featured PM ETFs: GDX, GDXJ, SGDM, SGDJ, SIL, SILJ, TGLDX, HUI, XAU, and GLDX.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?GDX,GDXJ,SGDM,SGDJ,SIL,SILJ,TGLDX,$HUI,$XAU,GLDX#
Again, you can adjust the time horizon by right clicking on the “200 days” button to 1 week all the way out to years.
Also, you can switch to a bar chart by clicking on that button and the bottom left of chart. Sometimes it is easier on the eyes. Enjoy!
Thanks for the link Excelsor!
They’re just some composite charts I’ve been playing with, and hopefully CFS will be happy that I separated them into either US or Canadian Tickers to keep the currencies matched up 🙂
Will the miners pull back to fill Wednesday’s gap?
http://schrts.co/xo8lwT
Anyone?
I would be surprised to see the miners pull back all the way to that gap if gold continues to strengthen. The marjority of the mining stocks I hold and others I am tracking did very well this last week, so I could see a small pullback before charging further.
There is one scenario where I’d answer yes, and this is if next week the major equity markets sell off as hard as some commentators are expecting, then it may drag everything down with it and miners may pull back to the gap. Let’s hope that is not what happens, but be prepared for if it does.
Good luck to all in their investing!
And, of course, good luck to you!
I agree that it is unlikely to get filled soon. GDX had a gap four times as large coming off of the 2008 low. That one took more than six years to get filled.
http://schrts.co/hfNFRk
I have a philosophical question (or perhaps it is more rhetorical).
If gold is traded 24/7, are there really any gaps? Or do gaps really matter?
(I realize the chart is for GDX, but you get my point, eh?)
I’m actually curious, as I have often seen “Fill the gap” used as a definitive – it WILL eventually happen.
Brian
Brian – It’s a good question with spot pricing on gold since it does trade 24/7. I think that “gaps” are relevant with stocks only because many charting programs use them when doing the mathematics on retracement levels, trend lines, sudden momentum, etc… and many don’t use charts that include after hour or pre-market trading so these gaps appear to highlight the spread between the standard close and open, and this also affects many kinds of candlestick patterns in charting.
The basic candle is made up of the high,the low, the open, and the close. There are all kinds of patterns or rules about where the next day’s candle open and if it is above/below the previous open/close or high/low. You can go pretty far out with Japanese candlesticks etc….but the gaps come into play and often are significant….but not always….. as is the imperfection in all technical analysis.
Yes, that is a good question and one that I’ve tried to answer for myself. Based on my observations, I have found that gaps in gold still matter, at least during U.S. hours.
Gaps that occur due to significant news (like a bonanza grade discovery) can usually be ignored.
Gaps that occur at major lows often remain open for a very long time, the problem is that we don’t know for sure if we’re witnessing a low until much later.
Thanks to both of you guys for taking the time to write thought-provoking answers.
I am SLOWLY learning technical analysis and these questions just seem to pop into my head. It is nice have a place (KER Message board) to discuss these things
I am in the same position that you are regarding technical and I too am grateful for many of the comments!
Gold should be correcting down about $15 to $20 before it continues up. I can’t see it going much higher than major resistance at $1200. The strong buying season is ending in a few weeks. Longer term 2 years out I could see 700 to 800 major support being tested and then the new bull market would begin.
A good message for the doomsters – and anyone, really.
Dave Ramsey talks about the predicted September 2015 financial crash
(8 minutes)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGK9twMHyLM
On the Federal Reserve ! They are never going to raise interest rates voulentarly ! They are going to need the Market to force them of coarse the Federal Reserve will have a bag full of excuses!!
On Politics: I Don’t know why any Rational Person would vote in this or any national election the whole system is corrupt and unethical I would rather people spend there valuable time thinking how they can protect there families financially and how to allocate there resources for hard times that could be facing us.One Day Americans will have to choose between Statism and Free Men I fear the choice will Statism.
As far as Gold : It will never see 3 digits again and will push higher over time.
Imagine Michael Belkin focused on $yen gee wonder why, lol
Last Oct the BOJ increased their QE devaluing the yen further and gold fell with yen from $1255 to new lower lows @ $1130 before a great run into mid Jan @ $1307….with the PBOC devaluing the Yuan the BOJ could/should increase their purchases which will send gold lower, M.B. suggesting a 5cent rise in $YEN will not be what the BOJ wants to see.
Hey Gary Savage!! Avi got long GLD at the 105 area, guess what, that’s Sept 14th the same day I did as the SS indicator suggested, I guess Avi and I are the 10% of traders that do catch bottoms
The bottom was on the 11th. 😉
Yep the 11 th.
Traditionally the debt ceiling hike was the catalyst for gold. This will happen soon. However, the last few have not affected gold, probably due to an increase in the comex leverage. I’ve read that it is now 250:1, to me that seems unbelievable, but then again, I thought 20:1 was obscene.
Tighness in London …
This week I learned from an interview with Jim Rickards that some very large bullion banks were said to be using the Comex gold futures to hedge shorts in bullion delivery markets in London, called the LBMA.
Some people will want their bullion …
From J.Rickards (start listening @32:00)
“When I was in Switzerland for Physical Gold Fund, we actually saw the gold that belongs to the investors in Physical Gold Fund. We had auditors, they had bar numbers and manifests, and we went item by item. Those bars actually belonged to the fund.
That’s not true with these LBMA agreements. You don’t have any allocated gold. That means a bank can have, say, one ton of gold and they can sell 20 tons of gold. They use the one ton to back all 20 of those contracts. In effect, they’re short 19 tons. They own one ton physical and sell 20 tons to a bunch of institutional investors or high-net-worth individuals who want to own gold, so they’re short.
They depend on their customers not asking for the gold. As long as this is all on paper, it works fine. Where it breaks down is if the customer comes in and says, “You know that unallocated gold? I would like to make it allocated and actually have the physical gold. In fact, not only do I want it allocated, but I would like you deliver it from your vault to a private vault run by Brinks or Loomis or one of the big secure logistics providers.”
That is what’s going on. People are taking their gold out of banks and putting it into new vaults because they’re losing confidence in the banking system. These new vaults are private storage vaults owned by private companies, not by banks.
Going back to my original scenario, the bank has one ton of gold and they sell 20. If even five customers show up and say, “I’d like my gold,” one ton each, you’re now short four tons. You have one ton of physical, but you have five tons of requests from five different customers. You’re short four tons, so you have to go out into the market and buy four tons of market. Guess what? That’s a big order. Good luck finding it. You can find it eventually, but you might not be able to find it quickly. So you have price exposure. You’re suddenly short the gold because your customers are demanding it.
What would you do? You’d go out and buy the futures. Now you’re hedged. You’re short to the customer who sent you the notice, you’re long on the futures, but you’re price exposure is hedged. Now you can take 30 or 60 days or however long it takes to source the physical and make delivery to the customer. The customer may think the gold is sitting in the vault and can be delivered tomorrow, but trust me, they can’t. They’ll be lucky to get it in 30 days and could even take a few months.
When I see a massively long futures position, it suggests to me – again, to be clear, I cannot prove this – that banks are turning up short in some other part of the operation, probably on these unallocated gold forwards. Customers are taking their gold out of the bank, the bank has to deliver to those customers, they’re short, they’re getting long futures to hedge, and they’re going to spend the next couple months going out and buying gold.”
Many thanks for that post Gabriel.
Full interview if you want to listen.
http://www.physicalgoldfund.com/the-gold-chronicles-july-16-2015-interview-with-jim-rickards/
Nice to know that a man of your knowledge agrees with me!
Here is a short post from Goldtent TA Paradise. Alexco is mentioned as possibly being a leading indictor that “This Time May Be Different”
I don’t know if anyone has mentioned the COT report for the past week. The commercials for silver stayed pretty neutral as it relates to contracts. However, gold contracts swung pretty nicely to an increasing bullish side through the net long positions increasing by 14,000 contracts.
I got Mr Armstrongs gold report update. Very interesting read.
We are looking for a major low in gold in late November this year and most likely April, 2016 (if gold closes the year below 1184). The weekly arrays point to gold heading down from mid October 2015 into late November. The lows in gold will coincide with an increase in the gold/silver ratio to around the 80 level.
Kind of resembles last years movements in the gold price and G/S ratio.
Martin A. Is very negative in BOTH gold and oil. It is a test for him in the next year. If he is right, it means my common sense is wrong. Otherwise, I will stop listening to him.
Mine too Lawrence!
What song/tune does the music come from that introduces the 2nd hour of the weekend show?
Thanks for the show too gentleman.
Cheers.
Have to ask Sarah as it has been around for almost 15 years and my memory is not that good.
Did you ask Sarah Big Al ?
Greek elections today folks.
Greece has dropped off the radar for me, but I am still interested, DT
Any bets?
Too close to call apparently.
This article came out today in The Financial Post on how smaller Canadian Gold Miners are thriving. Some of the companies talked about here are Kirkland Lake, Detour Gold, and Lake Shore Gold, and are of interest to many of KER’s posters. I hope you enjoy it!
http://business.financialpost.com/news/mining/how-smaller-canadian-gold-miners-are-thriving-despite-todays-gloomy-price-environment
Thank you Mr T.
A2A with Willem Middelkoop
By Turd Ferguson | Thursday, September 17, 2015 at 3:19 pm
Just a tremendous A2A earlier today with Willem Middelkoop, author of the worldwide bestseller, “The Big Reset”.
matthew re Lincoln… what on earth r u talking about..??! whatever…… the slaves were freed….
I have to agree with you on Lincoln.
Lincoln was a tyrant, Al.
The Terrible Truth About Abraham Lincoln and the Confederate War
https://snapoutofitamerica.wordpress.com/2014/01/20/the-terrible-truth-about-abraham-lincoln-and-the-confederate-war/
The truth is always radical to those unacquainted with it.
Agatha, the economics of that kind of slavery was already bringing it to an end and Lincoln made it very clear that he did not want to free the slaves.
He did, however, do immeasurable harm to his country by wiping his a** with the constitution and destroying states rights. The union was always supposed to be VOLUNTARY. If you are a U.S. citizen then YOU are a slave to your government.
Your “whatever” indicates that you’re not interested in the truth if it conflicts with the propaganda. If I’m wrong about that, then read: Lincoln Unmasked: What You’re Not Supposed to Know About Dishonest Abe by Thomas DiLorenzo.
If you disagree that U.S. citizens are slaves, then I have to ask what on earth are YOU talking about.
THINK.
The Truth About Slavery: Past, Present and Future
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=31E1gHowYcA
I wonder how many Americans know that: “Large numbers of free Blacks owned black slaves in numbers disproportionate to their representation in society. According to the federal census of 1830, free blacks owned more than 10,000 slaves in Louisiana, Maryland, South Carolina, and Virginia. The majority of black slave-owners lived in Louisiana and planted sugar cane.”
Note: “…in numbers disproportionate to their representation in society.”
http://slaverebellion.org/index.php?page=the-black-slave-owners
The Truth About Abraham Lincoln
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c-W5fGCAzOk
A timely reminder from Trader Dan. While we may be enjoying a rally in gold for the next weeks it is worth keeping in mind that the down sloping trend line remains bearish and until that changes it is best to keep your head screwed on until we get an all clear that the bottom has actually arrived. On that note….does anyone else here really think that golds chart looks like it has formed a lasting bottom? I sure as hell don’t. What I do think is that we will get a very nice relief and short covering rally to scare the pants off the bears and get the bulls all fired up again. Since the bull / bear sentiment ratios are so skewed it really makes perfect sense and God bless the bulls who get stupid and long as usual (just in time for the predictable price reversal lower)…..and don’t worry, it is coming again just as day follows night.
For now, “catch water while its still raining” as my grandfather used to say. Just don’t forget that a dry time is also coming. And in the case of gold, there is still a chance to lose another half your capital if the trend continues.
So beware the sirens that keep saying the bottom is in….we have all heard that song before.
A Rally in Gold : The Bottom is In ? — Trader Dan Norcini….September 18 2015
http://traderdan.com/?p=7149
As you know poo w, I am far from being a technician. Cory and Doc definitely agree with you. I believe, on the other hand, that for long term accumulation now is a good time to start.
Time will certainly tell.
I am kind of curious to know what you were meaning when you wrote poo w.
A Listener; you are correct in feeling that this will be another abortive rally. As big Al notes below, you’re in Cory and my camp—-you might remember I mentioned on the site about one month ago that the recent rally wouldn’t last and it didn’t—everyone was getting excited for that one as well. I’ve been spending time with Cory attempting to teach him the technical variables that I follow that allow me to say what I do on Al’s show. He is coming along nicely and understands why I take the positions I do. The danger in that is that I might misread what I’m looking at some day or the technicals suddenly do something completely out of character. I’ll say it again that the PMs according to what I’m looking at are not going to take off here for a new significant bull run. I can hear all the drums over the internet from the usual folks beating that drum but it’s not time yet. Once again, there’s no sense in placing big positions until possibly December of this year. I continue to feel that slowly wading into the PM stock area would lower your risk if you begin from December of this year to July of 2016.
I like your thinking Doc, I think Gary said something about a rally to about 1250 then down again as well. As fewer and fewer people are interested in gold stocks I think it will be harder for rallys to reach projections, but they will turn eventually.
Right after next years doldrums sounds good to me.
Maybe I change my mind on the way tho. lol
I still find it hard to see how gold/silver stocks would not fall alongside conventional stocks if and when we see the DOW/NASDAQ etc falling.
A little common sense from Trader Dan never hurts Listener.
If we look at the kitco list we see most are up, some down as much as 6% some up that much but on average they up about 2.5%.
What does that equate to?
Premier gold for example went from 2.38 – 2.44, pretty typical without “cherry picking”.
Anyway, 238 k profits 6k, I know alot of people here trade and 238k is “pocket change” to alot of people here, but to me, NO FREAKIN WAY am I putting up 238k to make 6k.
At this point as far as I am concerned, I still use what used to be called “mad money” for goldshares . When gold turns down (and it very likely will) we could still get a 50% drop in share prices.
My point of course is we are going to need moves alot greater than 20-30 to get goldshares “interesting” again.
Had a friend over this past few days, he rents, 100% full. He is convinced thats the way to go, he expressed the same concerns anyone with cash has “Where to put it?”
Nothing new, many people here no most very wealthy people made their coin with real estate.
Save it for the next pot stock run.
I see that Clive Maund has an article up today – ‘WILL THE PM SECTOR GET TAKEN DOWN BY THE 2nd DOWNWAVE?…’
No idea what he thinks on that but I see, in recent days, that he has written an article saying that a smash in conventional stocks is imminent.
Armstrong sent out his metals report update for those of us who bought the original 2015 outlook. The bottom is not in gold or the commodities as Gary suggests, its just another tradable bounce before heading much lower. Remember this is based on his computer model not his personal outlook and as we all know he has been correct calling golds value since the 2011 top, his recent top call was spot on by .20cents when gold needed to close above $1170 and it failed to do so before falling $70, I’m sure during this bounce if it can reach key resistance at $1239 all the gold gurus will once again be saying they picked the bottom and golds going a lot higher, lol
Yeah, lol dude.
LOL is right both you and Gary were suggesting a big move at $1169.80 while Marty suggested a failure to close above $1170 suggests a top, once again Gary was calling his followers to hold on and not get sucked into selling as $1250 was his target….you said this:…oh lol…the chart suggested selling gold on the 24th which was the topping action
On August 21, 2015 at 8:55 am,
Matthew says:
And very welcome gap-filling. The action is great, in my opinion.
Gold is looking good too. Here’s Sprott’s PHYS again:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PHYS&p=W&yr=5&mn=3&dy=0&id=p75702495608&a=370904138
I’d like to see gold tack on a few more dollars before the close, but next week is shaping up to be a good one.
KOR Aug 21st…oh it was the S&P500 low as well when most were suggesting a big gold move up while the us equities were going to crash!
I re read it JJ, not everyone was suggesting “gold to da moon” Listeners opinion was down she goes.
Notice that’s a WEEKLY PHYS chart? I liked the action then and I like it now. I know that you can’t fathom looking beyond three days into the future but that’s exactly what some people prefer to do.
As for the first part of my comment, I was referring to GDXJ and clearly my expectation was wrong for the following week. It happens. Why don’t you talk about Marty going on and on about higher interest rates in the months leading up to Yellen’s decision NOT to hike?
I think it’s funny that you have total faith in Socrates’ only programmer. Why did Socrates fail 15 years ago???
Your always a buy, buy, buy salesmen as well, just think how much you could have made if you looked past your nose and shorted the pm’s sector these past couple years as the chart clearly suggested
Glad you said it jj…….he is as biased as they come. A stopped clock.
You don’t know what I do. I don’t share 95% of what I do -good, bad, or ugly.
I am only always bullish to people who don’t pay attention. You will not find a significant high where I’ve even implied that anyone should buy. And unlike your peanut gallery fan, I don’t turn bearish at major lows.
Sure I know what you do. I have been reading your comments and clicking on your charts for more than three years already. You always found a way to be bullish gold even at its worst moments. You also caught a few of the bounces but in general, if you have been drinking your own Kool-Aid you lost a ton of money since 2012.
No need for a futurologist. Removes all these indicators and studies from the chart.
We have Nostradamus:
NOSTRADAMUS: Century 8, Quatrain 28
The copies of gold & silver inflated,
which after the theft were thrown into the lake
at the discovery that all is exhausted & dissipated by debt.
All scripts and bonds will be wiped out.
Armstrong the modern day Nostradamus, most ignore both as well, lol
Oh yes, the great Armstrong, defender of central banking and debt money! Long live the leader of the lemmings!
There are many leaders of the lemmings faaaaar ahead of Armstrong, Sprott, Sinclair always buy, buy, buy salesmen always!
So why didn’t he know what to expect from the Fed?
Bill Bonner, Rick Ackerman, and Peter Schiff were quite sure about what to expect and were dead-on.
I thought opinions don’t matter. lol
Nobody knows the future, especially to the day. Only God knows. The best thing one can do is to get the possibilities. If anyone claim he knows the future, like all the fortune tellers, I will stay away from him. However, it is possible to predict what will happen, with good possibility, in the future in a long enough time.
Thx Gabriel for the Nostradamus reminder, been awhile since I read it.
I guess we have a “bounce” “rally” but 1239 seems a long way up to me.
BB; you’re correct. The odds of that are very small. We would be very fortunate to get to 1180-1225.
This is worthwhile:
http://talkdigitalnetwork.com/2015/09/this-week-in-money-17/
I realize that there are folks beating the drums on the commodity sector. The commodity sector is not finished in its’ move lower. Based on what I watch, we have another leg down for some of them.
Doc I can tell you Armstrongs update to his 2015 metals outlook report will open many eyes if silver does in fact trade where he suggests over the next 7 months, wild!
That’s an interesting comment–right now my charts don’t show a significant sell off in the near future but just a slow drip down. Of course that could change.
Doc we who can read a chart will see the start of the rollover but we never know how deep it goes, which is ok by me just knowing when to short
If we look at the chart of gold from 1965 to 2015, from an EW perspective,
we can assume that we are in a wave (2) correction …
http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Graph12.png
Usually we retrace 50% or 61.6% (Fib.).
50% ret. = 1087
61.8% ret. = 891
In conclusion, take your own decision but we may have a bottom in place.
I can’t quite remember but wasn’t it Armstrong who called for a major crash in the markets mid September?
No Doc, his peak date is October 1st but even then he is not calling for a stock market crash if I am understanding him but rather the start of process of a bond market crisis that will unfold for the next few years as we turn down.
It is a loss of confidence in governments he sees coming as obligations are not met and defaults begin. It was the 1001 other guys copying from his playbook that got that “crash in September” ball rolling as they tried to interpret his words and take a few accolades in the predictions wake.
Unlike them, Martin made his original 2015.75 prediction quite a few years ago and there is obviously no way he could have foreseen exactly what the market would look like today from a standpoint that preceded the credit crisis itself.
I mean he could not have known for example the Fed would not raise rates a few days back. That is not what his cycle tells us. The indicator points to much broader changes which in this case is the end of the debt cycle and the realization by the public that governments have not been entirely truthful with their promises to the citizens.
We are seeing the first signs of the unwind process already in Greece, Detroit, Cyprus, Argentina, Puerto Rico and the like. Anyway, the Armstrong plagiarizers don’t get this. They think he is talking about a stock crash leading to another Depression without understanding that it was actually a sovereign debt crisis that was at the heart of that long period of economic pain.
So the closer we got to September the louder they pounded on their war drums about how a huge crash was coming without any idea of what the cycle chart was actually saying.
I don’t have a copy of that chart handy btw but I think he first drew it and presented it back in the late 80’s or early 90’s which means it is at least a 25 year old prediction. And that in itself is quite remarkable.
No Doc, his peak date is October 1st but even then he is not calling for a stock market crash if I am understanding him but rather the start of process of a bond market crisis that will unfold for the next few years as we turn down.
It is a loss of confidence in governments he sees coming as obligations are not met and defaults begin. It was the 1001 other guys copying from his playbook that got that “crash in September” ball rolling as they tried to interpret his words and take a few accolades in the predictions wake.
Unlike them, Martin made his original 2015.75 prediction quite a few years ago and there is obviously no way he could have foreseen exactly what the market would look like today from a standpoint that preceded the credit crisis itself.
I mean he could not have known for example the Fed would not raise rates a few days back. That is not what his cycle tells us. The indicator points to much broader changes which in this case is the end of the debt cycle and the realization by the public that governments have not been entirely truthful with their promises to the citizens.
We are seeing the first signs of the unwind process already in Greece, Detroit, Cyprus, Argentina, Puerto Rico and the like. Anyway, the Armstrong plagiarizers don’t get this. They think he is talking about a stock crash leading to another Depression without understanding that it was actually a sovereign debt crisis that was at the heart of that long period of economic pain.
So the closer we got to September the louder they pounded on their war drums about how a huge crash was coming without any idea of what the cycle chart was actually saying.
I don’t have a copy of that chart handy btw but I think he first drew it and presented it back in the late 80’s or early 90’s which means it is at least a 25 year old prediction. And that in itself is quite remarkable.
According Martin Armstrong, loss of confidence is the only reason of the gold price rise. I don’t know why he is not bullish on gold if you believe this is what he means. However I don’t believe it is the only reason. It could be a reason for gold spike but increase of the money supply (above gold inflation) is the fundamental reason which leads gold up.
I sense he seems to believe gold will stay down regardless what happens in the foreseeable future, which was a big change with his view on gold prior to 2012. I have been trying to find an possible explanation from his interviews but I cannot.
2015.75 end of sept. begin. oct.
He could be right about that as far as the next leg down on the conventional market. He might have missed the first leg down in August.
He means bond market I think, I listened a couple of times.
The bond market is heading up again but there’s not much upside to it any longer. The top is beginning to look pretty precarious up at these levels—-technically.
China, russia, saudi and some others are dumping treasury. It is not sure thing it will go up. If selling treasury becomes a trend, US will look like monetizing all its debt in history in the matter of years. The result can be massive devaluation relative to goods and service and hard asset..
He also forecast $5,000 gold for 2016 just over five years ago
$5000.00 gold will happen but not in 2016.
Not necessarily. It still may happen, even the chance is small.
I agree, Lawrence. Not every cause of a currency crisis can be seen on a chart. I wonder how many Russians saw their gold spike coming in the late 1990s.
http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/vaneedenprub.gif
Matthew,
Great stuff regarding Lincoln and the truth!
Most are just brainwashed in history..
I’m glad you know, and I’m glad you bring it! (-;
Sad isn’t it? Most people are not interested in finding out that what they’ve been fed is wrong. They are motivated by their own comfort and economic standing and little else.
+1
It is sad. But know one takes it upon them selves to do the research. Thus ,being lost..
no kidding the gold bulls are the worst as they worship those that have been wrong heading into the top and ever since, maybe the bottom will be when one of these always buy gurus is hanging from a tree!
JJ, your words are very unfair. Unlike you, I trust nobody let alone worshiping anyone. You don’t have to be worshiping anyone to buy gold. for example, my grand parents only save in silver. They don’t speak English and knew nothing about who the gold promoters are. They only know their villagers. Also most gold promoters have been saying general market is going down, and house is going down and I have both.
Words about my grand parents should be in past tense.
jj..back to the cave..it’s getting dark….
You’re the one doing the worshiping, JJ.
I still want to know why Martin didn’t know that the Fed would not raise rates. :\
That was a coin toss and nothing more. Even the Fed said that decision was a close call and at the last minute deferred to those who felt a hike at this juncture carried more risks than were acceptable. We will have to wait until early 2016 by the looks of it but the idea has hardly died. It is just a matter of waiting for an acceptable entry point. If commodities do indeed bottom this year we can be more certain the dollar will fall as gold, oil and the like slowly recover. A rate hike would not therefore assure a dollar strengthening cycle as it would be overwhelmed by the inverse correlation of commodities and the dollar.
A Listener; you’re dead on as far as the coin toss comment. I was waffling on this one and finally felt they would raise just to save face and make the appearance that the economy was as strong as they were marketing. Interestingly, my technicals were telling me they wouldn’t raise.
A rate hike would support the dollar at higher levels and also force the government and consumers to pay more to service their debts, at some point they will attempt yet another blunder. This mess is not going to be corrected by the people that got us here in the first place. The market will decide our medicine not a bunch of bungling bureaucrats.
I completely agree with you, Mr. Tracy!
The most interesting point about Lincoln was, when Sherman won the war, he was assassinated ( after doing a good job ) so that the ” new ” government could come into view.
If the south would have won the civil war?. This country would have been much better off. The civil war was about slavery, but not for just Africans. It was to enslave all of America. And It Succeeded ! ! !
It ended the confederacy ( states rights )and enacted the constitution. Then came the act of 1871. At that point , America was toast , ( has been ever since )
Now, everyone is brainwashed into talking about ” and Actually Believing In ” a democracy !
This nation was built on THE foundation of being a REPUBLIC.
NUFF SAID.
You can lead a sheep to water but you can’t make him drink. 😉
My Bitcoin stock is up 100% today…
BITCF 6,925 0.003 +100.00% 20.775 +10.3875 -237.53
Still in the whole. Was up 80% last week and 40 the week before.
GLD / SLV ratio is down .85%
If this persists into the close, with SLV in the green, it sets up your typical turn-around-Toozday!
This type of opposite gold and silver movement is happening a lot lately which rarely happened before. It may mean silver is tight in physical supply.
Silver is up 8% vs gold since its late August low.
A normal weekend show (great show btw) with normal posts. And most of them interesting and on topic. What a relief. Thanks again for kicking the crazy guy off the site Al. He created far too much discord with zero benefits for anyone here. Most of us just grind our teeth in exasperation whenever that guy started in with all his weird personal stuff.
Good to see him gone again. I appreciate you took action quickly this time.
A.L. your post about Armstrong’s 2015.75 was spot on, so many read his computer data commentary incorrectly. Still blows my mind how so many hang on every word of the buy, buy, buy salesmen and ignore a computer system that has correctly nailed a key date for global market action years!!!! in advance ….yet lets follow those who keep calling bottom after bottom only to see lower lows, WTH
Not sure how much you know about computer. In our computer industry, there is a famous phrase, garbage in garbage out. Computer cannot create information but it just extract data quicker and more accurately. I worked on computer for a living. I know it just does what people want it to do.
+1!
+2!
sorry Lawrence but I’ll take Armstrongs computer data results over your opinion ANY DAY!! the data that goes into the computer is the daily market data, lows, highs, closes that not garbage in/out…good grief!!!
There’s more to his data feed than that; why do you think he’s the only one doing the programming?
For the third time, why did he blow it with the Fed decision? And why did he blow it with gold and silver at their major lows 15 years ago?
Why did you blow it with your GDXJ call that jj noted yesterday (and you admitted too). Anyway Matthew, 15 years ago was the dinosaur age in the computer world. How ridiculous are you trying to look today?
JJ. I am surprised you get offended by a common phrase in computer industry used on daily basis. It does not mean anything Martin has done is garbage. It specifically means that the input data has to be right and compete to get meaningful result. So I think you don’t know much about computer. Computer result can be just like human work, it can be right, wrong or harmful. So my whole point is that the Martin’s computer result could be wrong as well.
So I am totally surprised by your attack since I did not attack Martin at all.
“Computer result can be just like human work, it can be right, wrong or harmful.” +1
JJ attacks because he has not been domesticated. He knows nothing else.
LOL, it is a bit rude though.
If that’s the case Lawrence then you need to explain how one famous algo-driven hedge fund managed to go more than a year without a single loss. That story was on ZeroHedge some time back (sorry i cannot recall the name of the company right now). But we have also seen the same thing with Goldman and JPM posting stellar results quarter after quarter and it is partly because they are using a systems based approach to trading that alerts them to key technical changes minute by minute. So what I am saying is that the evidence tells us that those with the power of computing at their backs have an edge that cannot be mirrored by the typical trader who is still working alone. Having an advantage means harnessing the power of variables that is often only possible by a number crunching algo. In Armstrongs case he is attempting to create a model based on his Pi cycle theory and we should greet its introduction with the same enthusiasm we might have for any other good market tool. Whatever works. If it gives you an edge then use it….if not, go back to an abacus.
Only a fool would believe that JPM achieves those results legitimately. So… everything appears to be in order here. 🙂
Only a fool eh?
Yeah….right.
I cannot explain why someone can get trade right all the time even with a computer. I have been computer programmer for many years until I started doing higher level strategy work. What I have been struggling is computer bugs. It is computer program which turns out bad result or even crash regardless data is right or wrong. Funny thing is that you can give bad input and computer can create really funny result. I sometimes trick vendors to create funny result when they claim their software is magic like JJ claims Martin’s program is. If computer can be that powerful, the software developers will be the richest people on earth. Actually without right business data and business logic, computer is useless. So all the successful program you are using is the concentration of human knowledge. It can provide great help to people and allow regular people to do a lot of work. However, someone has to design it.
We are also deleting posts with profanity. I simply don’t want to offend others. Thanks for the compliment, by the way.
Those algoes are nothing more than trading at support and resistance, they just do it better than people.
I read the article your talking about Listener, JP and others not taking a loss for over a year. They get info before others giving an advantage.
One point, they operate in milliseconds, not minutes.
The guys that use those computers spend millions to get their pewters closer to the exchanges so their trades happen before the competition that use pewters with algoes.
People will never out trade those machines, they only out trade each other.
My guess is eventually people will figure that out and quit playing, but people take a long time to catch on. lol
GNX weekly (commodities):
http://schrts.co/zW5pUh
You think spending millions means he can’t be incorrect? You need to take a class on logic. The guy has already proven to be confused on a few issues, what makes you think he’s god-like on everything else. I think you need a nice hot cup of STFU.
Dear God, people are just so rude on this forum that I’m tired of it.
Sorry Reverend I have been away since about 3 p.m. yesterday. Which comment are you referring to?
agree Rev how rude Matt and Lawrence are towards Armstrong who has been correct since the top in gold, imagine that!
If suggesting Martin and computer can make mistake is rude, I don’t know what is not. Do you want me say everything Martin says is right? I cannot say it since he got things wrong before. I also don’t worship people. It is against my principle.
BTW, Al’s computer is wrong since my comment is supposed to follow JJ’S
Lawrence all write this in the most simple way I can, there are so many so called pm’s sector experts that have made terrible calls regarding gold, silver and the miners both leading up to the top in 2011 and ever since yet to this day when they speak many will provide links to what they have suggested adding their +1! crap!!
These guys are completely clueless as to how one trades a bear market and they have called the bottom many, many times INCORRECTLY, my point all along has been who has called the trend correctly since the top, it happens to be Marty, its that simple, no worship, no he’s always right comments from me just outlining his correct calls again with OIL, GOLD, US EQUITIES, CURRENCIES etc, etc.
I paid for his metals report year after year and his turn dates and price values have been far more accurate than anyone here, but I guess that makes me a worshiper?? hello!!
If you all would have sold your gold and silver in 2011 and all your miners… then buying US equities based on Marty’s computer work would you all hate the man so much, I doubt it….I like to follow those who have been correct these past 4 years and I get attacked, really!
JJ’s I happens not agree with a lot of the guys you mentioned (Sprott for example). But to be fair, Martin did not call the top for metal prior to 2011 peak. I listened to him. He was still bullish sometime into 2012. I don’t think he was bearish on oil prior to crash either. He turned bearish on oil just recently. He appears on Puplava and Howestreet all the times and he is the one I must listen.
Yes I agree with you it will be great if you sell gold in 2011. I did sell nearly all my miners and some silver, BTW. However, no one knows how to sell in the past, not even Martin.
did you BUY his metal report Lawrence, I did, so you don’t know what you speak of because you didn’t read his report, just as he updated his report recently outlining the computers outlook and its not straight down either but I’m not cheap so I’m not going to post here was his call was, your eyes will fall out of your head if his silver price zone is correct, lol
No I don’t. I am more interested in his big picture predictions since I cannot afford short term trading. I don’t think he will tell opposite stories. As for trading, I am not into it since my job does not allow me to.
JJ, I dont buy reports so I didnt get Armstrongs either, but Im thinking $4 is a possibility.
The question for physical buyers is what would the premiums be.
I wonder if being able to purchase silver at $8 including the premium would convince people of no shortage.
It also depends on how high the cost is for mines to produce the products. At the current price, no mine is making money, let alone it drops to single digit. Silver is consumed, where is the metal coming from if the mines close. There is only be so much cost cutting before production cutting. Just like the current oil price, if it last long enough, tens of million of barrels will come out of production stream. It is different with paper or even gold, paper can be printed at no cost and gold is rarely consumed.
yess bb if your a physical buyer the premium will make a difference, what did the premium do while silver fell from $26-$20….$20-$15 Canadian friends tell me BNS in Toronto has no problem filling large orders of silver bars or wafers, no shortage at the biggest bullion trader in CDA – BNS
Marty’s target is based on continued global deflation which we all are aware inflation at street level is rising as it costs more every month/year to live but global demand for commodities has been falling for years and could well fall A LOT further.
As a trader its the support resistance levels that I watch one by one
JJ, you’ve never been attacked for anything other than your sorry, combative personality. Furthermore, my criticisms of Marty have had a lot more to do with his huge mistakes in other areas than his ECM or day to day market commentary.
JJ simply gets a pain in his vajayjay when faced with the fact that there are methods other than his own that work just as well or better.
Many thanks for the civility “original”
ditto………
ditto should have been posted under Andy………for the rude know who they are and continue to do so.
Anywhere did I suggest he add incorrect data? You are barking on the wrong tree. I am just saying computer is not God and Martin is not God. Is this clear enough? Everyone and computer could make mistakes. Is that agreeable? Whether those gold bugs is right and wrong is irrelevant, since I am not suggesting they are better. I like Martin Armstrong and listen to him often. Martin is great but he is not always right, his prediction of gold going to 5000 which was postponed several times and now put into back burner. It means he was wrong before and he changed his forecast. what prevents him to change his current prediction later? Nothing. btw, just a few weeks ago he was predicting the rise of China and fall of the west. Do you think it is his computer saying it?
Listen to Howes tree.com
Howestreet.Com, stupid auto correct. It however proves computer can make mistakes. 🙂
In our computer industry, there is a famous phrase, garbage in garbage out. I know it just does what people want it to do.
You need to read your own comments, does the above suggest Marty’s computer is worthy ??? I agree NOTHING IS GOD never said it was what the H is so tuff to understand Lawrence his data results have been correct since the high in gold PERIOD never said the guy is always right WHO CARES!! his OVER TREND CALLS HAVE BEEN CORRECT…but you wouldn’t know a trend Lawrence if it looked back at you!
This sentence is very formal and it is out of any computer class. There is not any reference to Martin’s work. Also I am sure Martin is not the greatest computer guru. Even Microsoft and apple makes mistakes all the time. Check their known bugs. I wish people go over the above sentence and find anything even hints what you say. I think you strong belief has clouded your judgement.
yup my judgement Lawrence created a 130% return this summer SHORT the miners trading DUST, yup I’m completely lost so I’ll toss you in the BM, Matt pile as well, your dangerous to read, good luck in what ever you do!
jj relegating Matthew’s comments to the shit pile for starters…Appears to have now got deleted.
You bet Reverend, no more profanity!
Here is an interesting You Tube telecast by Greg Hunter that sums up just about everything posted here and your panel discussion this week (which is very good every week). I waited to post this link more as food for thought for you Big Al and your regulars rather than add fuel to the fire on your weekend show. AS for me, I always appreciate and respect those better able to explain those things I care about.
It’s about 20 minutes long. Hope you guys find it worth your time to watch and launch further discussions in these areas in the coming days..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ORsOQbYPqgo&index=1&list=PLdzvOQoDXpskEfTtswFSwi0QYAY9BRFId
Thanks BJ
Lawrence all write this in the most simple way I can, there are so many so called pm’s sector experts that have made terrible calls regarding gold, silver and the miners both leading up to the top in 2011 and ever since yet to this day when they speak many will provide links to what they have suggested adding their +1! crap!!
These guys are completely clueless as to how one trades a bear market and they have called the bottom many, many times INCORRECTLY, my point all along has been who has called the trend correctly since the top, it happens to be Marty, its that simple, no worship, no he’s always right comments from me just outlining his correct calls again with OIL, GOLD, US EQUITIES, CURRENCIES etc, etc.
I paid for his metals report year after year and his turn dates and price values have been far more accurate than anyone here, but I guess that makes me a worshiper?? hello!!
If you all would have sold your gold and silver in 2011 and all your miners… then buying US equities based on Marty’s computer work would you all hate the man so much, I doubt it….I like to follow those who have been correct these past 4 years and I get attacked, really!
glad to have a scroll button………………..
Note to MATTHEW AND ANDY………..above “ditto” was not intended to imply be underneath jj’s comments, nor, was anything implied for jj…………….sorry.
messages are bouncing all over the place………
Sorry Frank but ditto does not mean anything at all.
A listerner………better get Webster out , and brush up on your grammar.
Sure thing. Here you go…..
Full Definition of DITTO according to Webster’s:
A thing mentioned previously or above —used to avoid repeating a word —often symbolized by inverted commas or apostrophes
——————————–
Hmmmm, how revealing.
Thanks for showing us that there is a WORD and a MEANING for the word…….DITTO.
(since you say it does not mean anything)
Hmmm……..very revealing.
Yup, I actually stopped buying silver some time ago, about 30 on the way up to 50…
Figured I had enough.
Gold I buy every month or two, never a shortage, but a time or two over the last 5 years I might have had to buy a bars instead of coins for example.
Thinking back I guess gold premiums for smaller stuff 1 once and less have run about 10% I think, obviously bigger the smaller you buy.
I think of selling when I buy so I want small stuff.
As for no demand for commodities, that is gonna change big time, I remind you, China/Russia are going to build a railroad from Bejing to Moscow.
This will be boom time big time, lottsa commodities will be required.
I expect gold to do as it always has, up or down in dollar terms.
Personally I start selling in 7 years so $400 gold to me is simply more for my dollar.
No, there never has been a shortage, the closest thing to a shortage we have seen is a wait time. Which by the way, were you buying big enough to require an armoured car has always been the case. At least whenever I looked into it, it has been.
China/Russia are going to build the railroad from Bejing to Moscow, that will be boom time big time, lottsa commodities will be rquired.
Gold will continue to do what it always has done, increase or decrease in dollar terms.
Myself, I intend to begin selling in 7 years, so $400 gold anytime soon I see as more gold for my dollars.
Less than $10 silver is tempting, but I already have all I want.
Makes me go hmmmm
Saturday morning, get up, make coffee, lie in bed and listen to the kereport weekend show.
Love it.
Really enjoyed listening to Michael Belkin, Avi Gilburt and Doc. Haven’t listened to the other segments yet.