Weekend Show – Sat 20 Feb, 2016

The State of the Economy

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Al KorelinGlen DownsJeff DeistRick AckermanChris TempleDana Lyons
Brien LundinDavid MorganRichard Postma
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  1. On February 20, 2016 at 12:29 am,
    CFS says:


    Indian buyers of gold are anticipating a decrease in tax on gold purchases and thus have not been in the market for a while.
    When the tax is reduced after march begins, we can expect gold and silver prices to rise.

      • On February 20, 2016 at 4:41 am,
        Dragonite says:

        Indian has a strong black market, which thrives on tax.

        • On February 20, 2016 at 3:30 pm,
          Big Al says:

          You mean thrives on taking advantage of a lack of taxation?

      • On February 20, 2016 at 2:00 pm,
        Frank from moscow CCF says:

        thanks for posting Andy………

    • On February 20, 2016 at 5:13 am,
      Excelsior says:

      This will help the cause if the Indian taxes on gold purchases are reduced, but the physical markets don’t move the prices, the paper markets and futures markets move the prices. Physical metal fundamentals have not mattered in quite some time.

      Rick Ackerman’s technical price targets are based on the price movements on the futures markets. The prices displayed on Kitco, Bloomberg, Yahoo, whatever…..are based on the current futures markets. When all the investors and institutional funds worldwide look at charts of how Gold is priced in US dollars, they use charts that have reflected the futures market prices and previously the London fix (but this is changing and loosing importance).

      There may be a day where supply and demand, based on the physical markets come back into focus, but not anytime soon. Most of the world doesn’t give a rip about Indian jewelry demand, and it doesn’t cross their mind when investing in PMs or the vehicles and stocks that follow the sector. It is a contributing factor though in mopping up some of the production, but it’s role is minimal in the global investment marketplace.

      • On February 20, 2016 at 5:22 am,
        Dragonite says:

        It is undeniable that physical demand chips away the metals used to backup the futures. As long as physical delivery is required to match delivery request, shorts can not create unlimited contracts to drive the price down. Default risk will rise with the decline of available physical metal. The effect is indirect but it exists nevertheless .

        • On February 20, 2016 at 5:28 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Agreed. That is why I said: ” It is a contributing factor though in mopping up some of the production, but it’s role is minimal in the global investment marketplace.”

          In an ideal world, the pricing would be based solely on supply and demand fundamentals, but we don’t live in that world.

          P.S. – Dragonite, I did respond back to you on Thursday’s blog regarding Endeavour Mining. Thanks man.

          • On February 20, 2016 at 8:17 am,
            Dragonite says:

            Thanks. I just read it. This company has been a difficult hold and one of the two in didn’t sell in 2011.

          • On February 20, 2016 at 8:30 am,
            Excelsior says:

            It looks like it has turned the corner and W. Africa has a lot of activity going on right now, so with their 5 mines rolling right along, and costs coming down, they are on much better footing now than they were even a year or two ago.

            Check out the silver charts posted below….. Silvercorp was the 4th biggest mover in the entire Silver producer sector out of the Jan 19th bottom with over 100% gain.

            From Jan 19th to Feb 19th – Americas Silver moved the most at 177%, then Impact Silver at 134%, then Coeur at 106%, and then Silvercorp at 100%. Not bad in one month after the miners bottomed. 🙂

          • On February 20, 2016 at 8:41 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Before my buddy Matthew points out how well Alexco has done (and they absolutely have), they are not CURRENTLY producing, so that is why they were not on the lists below, because they are a prior producer, but still fall into the near-term producer category.

            *Having said that, it is only fair to give credit where credit is due, and Alexco has been on absolute tear lately. So the chart below swapped out Alexco instead of Mag Silver, and I added in Coeur instead of Minco.

            Alexco was up 171.58% over the last month (since the Jan 19th lows), and came in a close second, but it actually way over-performed everything if you look at it from from the recent dip down to the spike up it was over 200%. Amazing move!


          • On February 20, 2016 at 8:45 am,
            Excelsior says:

            …..and BTW one last thing…..

            I would say by far the 4 Silver producers that we have discussed the most on the KER blog in the last 2-3 months, preparing for the bottom, were Alexco, Americas Silver Corp, Impact Silver, and Silvercorp……. 4 out of the top 5 producers in the entire Silver miners sector since the January bottom.

            This exactly why it is a stock pickers markets, and why you don’t just throw darts.

            Just sayin’

          • On February 20, 2016 at 8:47 am,
            Dragonite says:

            I have put some svm for sale but not sure it will hit $2 or not. As for edv when I started invested in it in 2006, their main business was mining finance with a lot of shares and warrants. They had two mines in northern Europe and Mexico. These five were all newer development. Since I have put it in dark corner so I never looked into it closely again. It used to be my reversed trophy which I make myself look at it painfully. LOL.

          • On February 20, 2016 at 8:52 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Yes, back on the trail of the Gold market….. It was interesting to look into Endeavour Mining, as I had always meant to. Again, I usually got onto their page by accident searching for Endeavour Silver. I am impressed with both companies, and it is interesting that they both have 5 mines.

          • On February 20, 2016 at 9:28 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Oversold Rally & Global Economy
            by Tiho | Feb 18, 2016 – Theshortsideoflong

            “Additionally, sentiment became very negative throughout the early part of February. In some instances, various indicators have fallen to levels of pessimism rarely seen over the last three decades while others match the fear seen during the depth of the Global Financial Crisis in 2008. Surveys, such as AAII or Investor Intelligence, recently touched rock bottom levels.

            Retail investors (dumb money) have been heavy buyers of put options, while market participants around the world have piled into safe havens such as Treasury Bonds, Japanese Yen and Gold. All three of these asset classes have moved up in vertical fashion over the short term, a clear indicator of fear. Finally, various credit spreads and credit default swap indices have also spiked sharply (usually seen near intermediate or major market lows)….”


          • On February 20, 2016 at 9:36 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Here’s an update to the chart of Gold / Yen / TLT doing the safety dance:


      • On February 20, 2016 at 7:33 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Here’s a composite perf chart for the Majors & Mid-tiers in the Silver Producers:

        (right click on the time horizon button at chart to try (previous month, previous 3 months, previous 6 months, previous year, etc….)

        Companies Featured:

        Pan American Silver, Coeur, Silver Standard Resources, Silver Wheaton, Tahoe Resources, Fresnillo, Hochschild Mining, First Majestic, Hecla Mining, & Endeavour Silver.


        • On February 20, 2016 at 7:46 am,
          Excelsior says:

          This chart has a composite perf chart of the Mid-Tiers & Smaller Silver producers:

          (right click on the time horizon button at chart to try (previous month, previous 3 months, previous 6 months, previous year, etc….)

          Companies Featured:

          Sabina Gold & Silver, Fortuna Silver, Mag Silver, Silvercorp, Avino Silver & Gold, Minco, Americas Silver Corp, Impact Silver, Excellon Resources


          • On February 20, 2016 at 7:54 am,
            Excelsior says:

            * I truly hope this bar chart posts correctly of the Mid-Tier and Small Silver Producers.

            If this bar chart posts correctly you will see the staggering gains made in these smaller Silver stocks on a percentage basis from Jan 19th to Feb 19th (in one month):

            Americas Silver up 177.78% since Jan 19th !!!

            Impact Silver up 130.43% since Jan 19th !!

            Silvercorp up 100% since Jan 19th !!

            …….and more great gains on the chart (select bar chart + previous month)


          • On February 20, 2016 at 8:08 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Sorry – I forgot Great Panther Silver on that last bar chart. It looks like it worked, so here is a better chart:

            Sabina Gold & Silver, Fortuna Silver, Mag Silver, Silvercorp, Avino Silver & Gold, Minco, Americas Silver Corp, Impact Silver, Excellon Resources, and Great Panther Silver


          • On February 20, 2016 at 10:25 am,
            Brian says:

            Avino Silver and Gold is my 4th favorite Silver miner (Although 50% of revenue is from Gold and Copper). It has not rocketed like *Alexco, Americas, and Impact, but it will catch up eventually.

            The large producer (Gold and Silver) I like best (meaning has the most upside potential) is Coeur (CDE), with McEwan (MUX) a close send

            * Alexco is in the “Developer” category in my EXCEL spreadsheet. Hopefully I can move it “Silver Producer” category by 2017.

          • On February 20, 2016 at 10:54 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Great thoughts. Yes, Avino Silver & Gold is one of my favorites as well, and while it has been growing in share price, it has not rocketed off like America Silver, Alexco, Impact and Silvercorp. Another stock I finally own again, which has moved nicely in the last week or two has been Aurcana, and they are still small producers.

            I really like Fortuna & Great Panther for the Mid-tiers, and First Majestic, Endeavour, and Hecla for the for bigger companies. Silver Wheaton is a streamer but I like it as well.

            McEwen Mining, Sierra Metals, and Mandalay resources are in my Gold miners list now, but they all have significant Silver credits. I am thinking about moving Hecla from Silver over to Gold as well, since they now have more revenue and assets in Gold than in Silver.

            On the smaller speculative play I really like the new combined Kootenay/Northair Silver combo (with Pan American as a 20% investor), Bear Creek Mining, Nicola Mining, Dolly Varden Silver, and Bayhorse Silver.

          • On February 20, 2016 at 11:19 am,
            Matthew says:

            Brian, based on Avino’s valuation, I don’t think it is going to catch up to IPT, USA, and AXU. Instead, I think the three that the market thinks are riskier will continue will continue to outperform until their valuations better reflect the new reality for the sector. Then, I think all four will often move very similarly (barring company specific developments).

            I don’t know Avino but, looking at the weekly chart, it looks like it must have a lot of good things going on. Not only did it go up 300% in 34 weeks from its June 2013 low, but unlike most of its peers, it never took out its 2013 low – it held, to the penny while IPT and AXU went 75% lower and USA went 70% lower.

          • On February 20, 2016 at 12:42 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Here’s something interesting about AXU. It turns out, its initial move off of its 2008 low was exactly the same as the move it just had off of its recent low. In fact, the similarity is so precise I had to check it thrice. According to StockCharts, both moves were exactly 278.39%. The 2008 move was followed by a 41.05% decline in two weeks. A repeat of that move would take AXU to 49 cents this time.
            It will be interesting to see just how well history continues to rhyme since the two periods are very different in many ways (technically/fundamentally/etc).


          • On February 20, 2016 at 10:03 pm,
            Brian says:

            Hey Matthew

            I actually found one of my ancient spreadsheets

            I actually bought a block of shares for Alexco right at the bottom in 2008 ($US 0.45).

            I then bought more shares at $1.25 and then more shares at around $3.10. Both in those multi-month congestion zones. I knew less about TA then (if that’s possible) and traded on the: (A) Buy shares on pullbacks and (B) Sell shares when you feel uncomfortably lucky.

            I started selling at $6.50 though $8.50. I never did sell any at the top, though.

          • On February 20, 2016 at 10:12 pm,
            Brian says:

            I think Avino is a tiny, hidden gem.

            I mean. Really. Producing 7,083 ounces of gold per year is just ADORABLE !


          • On February 20, 2016 at 10:51 pm,
            Brian says:

            I’m 99.732% sure that Excelsior introduced the KER crowd to Avino, by the way.

          • On February 21, 2016 at 2:55 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Thanks Brian. I have to tip my hat to Jay Taylor who has been covering ASM for years and years, and some of his interviews kept me up to date for a long time. I did find out about David Wolfin because he is also CEO of other venture Coral Gold, and they had a big deal with Barrick in 2014 and I have them targeted as a potential take-out target.

            Here are a few of the things I really like about Avino Silver & Gold.

            1) It is like a large family business at this point, and many of the staff have been working in this area and at this mine for decades. The son David, took over the business having grown up with the mine managed by his father and they have invested a great deal of their lives to understand this deposit. To me, it is a plus when the geologists and team assembled have decades of information, maps, previous drilling data, and experience with the ore body.

            2) The primary mining complex in Durango, Mexico has proven itself, has low costs, and a nice mix of Silver, Gold, and Copper. The San Gonzalo mine kicked things off in 2012 to get the cashflow going, and the next step was they de-watered and reopened the Avino Mine (which had filled with water in 2001). Once they added in the production from Avino and have all new equipment, it nearly doubled their output from 2014 to 2015, and brought the copper into the equation (along with the Silver & Gold) in their concentrate.

            David Wolfin has mentioned that there is a minimum of 10 years mine life in Avino alone, not including San Gonzalo, Bralorne, or the old tailings. They produced over 3 million Silver equivalent ounces in 2015, and this will grow to 4-6 million over the next few years.

            3) Exploration – They have aeromagnetic surveys, soil samples, satellite imagery being utilized to expand their drill program, and they own their own drill and can do this exploration at 25% of what a drilling company charges. They continue to find more extensions for both mines.

            4) They recently acquired back the Bralorne property in BC, which they used to work in tandem with in decades past. With Bralorne back into the fold, they have permits to take that from 100 tons per day up to 500 tons per day. David bought new equipment and are going to right into production without years of proving out reserves. They know and understand the deposit, and the infrastructure is all there and in place so they are going to start mining, and expand and define the resource out of cash flow from the mine.

            5) Their current Tailings pond has a big resource (1.4 million Silver equivalent that they can mine over a 5 year period). The PEA has been based on surface, but they plan on putting 90 holes in it in later 2016 for possible production 2017. They are currently getting the permits to build a new Tailing pond, and once that is complete, then they can add the old tailing deposit into the mix.

            6) The offtake agreement with Samsung is a huge deal, and unique in the marketplace. This may very well be the way business gets done down the road where companies source commodities directly from the mine itself. Samsung is a major player in Korea, and this bodes well that they did their research and determined Avino Silver and Gold is the company they wanted to partner with. This agreement also allows Avino to get access to funds ($10 million so far) without messy dilution to shareholder. They have a tight share structure with only 37.5 million shares, they are cashed up, and they will likely wait to raise more money until they have a higher share price.

            I just see them as solid company and their share price is not currently reflective of all the value they have built and continue to develop.

            Recently I’ve trimmed a bit of my position into the strength, but will be continuing to build a larger position in this company throughout 2016.

          • On February 21, 2016 at 3:05 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Here is the most recent press release from Avino Silver & Gold:

            Avino Production Up 116% Over 2014 To 3,020,348 Oz Silver Equivalent
            January 18, 2016

            Consolidated Production Highlights for Fiscal 2015 (Compared to Fiscal 2014)

            -Silver equivalent production increased 116% to 3,020,348 oz*
            -Silver production increased 68% to 1,625,285 oz
            -Gold production increased 37% to 7,083 oz
            -Copper production increased 1,453% to 4,743,691 lbs


          • On February 21, 2016 at 3:07 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Here is a good overview that Jay Taylor did with CEO David Wolfin last fall, that does a good job highlighting what to expect for 2016:

            David Wolfin, President of Avino Silver and Gold Mines
            Oct 14, 2015 – Jay Taylor Media


          • On February 21, 2016 at 3:09 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Sean Brodrick speaks to David Wolfin of Avino Silver & Gold (NYSEMkt: ASM) about all the great things this cash-flow positive miner is up to.
            Published on Nov 11, 2015


          • On February 21, 2016 at 7:29 am,
            Matthew says:

            Brian, I’d say you operated like a pro with AXU. If you can do so well without TA, just imagine what’s going to happen this time.

            I’m going to take a look at Avino now, who doesn’t want at least one adorable miner in their portfolio? 😉

          • On February 21, 2016 at 8:57 am,
            Brian says:

            Thanks for taking time to write about Avino. Prior to reading your posts, I only knew Avino from the data standpoint. Knowing the history and story behind the company just gives me more confidence.

            I tend to have an emotional attachment to my investments; I know that is considered bad in the investment community.

          • On February 21, 2016 at 10:13 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Thanks Brian. Always glad to discuss specific stocks. Yes, I try not to get an emotional attachment to any investment, but I like to see quality management and a good growth profile. What I like about David & his team, is that they have under-promised and over-delivered thus far, and expect their winning streak to continue. Eventually the marketplace will realize they should be trading at significant multiples to where they are now.

          • On February 21, 2016 at 3:13 pm,
            Frank from moscow CCF says:

            AVINO………….is that A favorite wine……….

          • On February 21, 2016 at 5:20 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Me encanta el vino tinto y Avino plata y oro.

          • On February 21, 2016 at 5:48 pm,
            Frank from moscow CCF says:


  2. On February 20, 2016 at 12:30 am,
    Skeeta says:

    As per usual,
    Thanks for the weekend show guy’s.
    Much appreciated.

    • On February 20, 2016 at 5:05 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Yes, more of an expose on our regular contributors and the great guys they are.

      Thanks Big Al.

  3. On February 20, 2016 at 12:47 am,
    Ohad Tal says:

    implications of zero interest rates – sorry guys but you are misleading. the demand for GOV bonds are not from individuals but from institutional money. the regulation force the pension funds to invest in the “no risk” GOV bonds. only traders spread for the yield curve have some demand for 30Y … no body is that stupid to park his money in 10Y for the next decade and if there are some people they are the minority. the GOV regulation force the people to “invest” in negative instruments.
    cheers guys

  4. On February 20, 2016 at 12:59 am,
    Herbert Howells says:

    FAO Doc and Matthew. Thanks for your replies yesterday. I couldn’t acknowledge them at the time because I am in the UK so keep different hours.

  5. On February 20, 2016 at 1:44 am,
    Pete says:

    Thank you guys,great weekend show.

  6. On February 20, 2016 at 3:34 am,
    Herbert Howells says:

    Doc – chartist Chris Vermeulen is predicting an intermediate bottom in oil and equities leading to a rally for about a month. At the same time, an intermediate top in gold and gold miners leading to a retrace. He says things simply can’t maintain a parabolic rise indefinitely and the eventual fall should be similarly steep. Are you thinking along similar lines? Yesterday, you seemed to say that gold and equities would fall at the same time but I could have misheard. This is the link to Chris Vermeulen’s interview. The main points are covered in the first 5 minutes.

    • On February 20, 2016 at 5:19 am,
      Bob UK says:

      Haven’t we just had the oil rally though?

    • On February 20, 2016 at 5:22 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Herbert Howells – Thanks for posting that interview with Chris V.

      • On February 20, 2016 at 10:02 am,
        Herbert Howells says:

        Excelsior – you’re welcome. Of the chartists I like to read or listen to, Chris and Doc seem to be the most cautious about the ongoing strength of this particular rise. That’s why I posted it.

        • On February 20, 2016 at 10:57 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Yes I am weighing their thoughts against Gary Savage, Gary Wagner, Jordan Roy-Byrne, Avi Gilburt, Morris Hubbart, and Clive Maund. (many of their viewpoints are represented further down the blog). It seem like there are some in both camps, so I am partially invested ready or a breakout or breakdown 🙂

          Good luck in your investing this next week.

          • On February 21, 2016 at 2:59 am,
            Anders form Copenhagen says:

            Dear Ex.
            I agree totally on your approach.
            We need to balance viewpoints.
            If anyone has an hour this Sunday. I can recommend this macro discussion between Grant Willams and Willem Middelkoop.


          • On February 21, 2016 at 3:48 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Thanks Anders from Copenhagen. The link to Grant Williams & Willem Middelkoop is appreciated.

          • On February 21, 2016 at 6:12 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Yes, good interview. I have always likes Grant but it’s funny that he said FDR devalued the dollar by 20% when it was more like 37% (gold was revalued roughly 70% higher). I also found it humorous when Middelkoop talked about the Chinese pushing for gold to be included as a “sixth currency” in the SDR. If gold is included, it’s accurate to say that the SDR consists of five currencies backed by gold.

    • On February 20, 2016 at 7:33 am,
      gary says:

      Again gold is not in a parabola. Parabola’s form at bull market tops, not at bottoms. Gold and miners are simply mirroring the crash that happened in Oct. How many times have I said this? The further the rubber band gets stretched in one direction the harder it rebounds in the other once the selling exhausts.


      I’ll say it again. Bably bulls are unlike any other market. The failure to recognize the change and adapt has cost almost everyone a once in a lifetime opportunity to ride the initial blast off that bottom. This is why I was willing to try to call bottoms because I knew when it came it would be unlikely anything anyone had seen before and the gains would be simply mind boggling. Especially in how fast they would occur and not just in magnitude.

      • On February 20, 2016 at 8:12 am,
        Excelsior says:

        A nice W pattern. Thanks.

        • On February 20, 2016 at 9:20 am,
          Anders from Copenhagen says:

          Thank you for posting the graphics, Gary.
          Do you have any opinion regarding the COT, Doc posted yesterday?
          It could be interesting to hear your view.

          • On February 20, 2016 at 1:29 pm,
            gary says:

            If this is a new bull market then gold and silver will just continue to rise and the commercials will be forced to cover their shorts into higher prices.

            This is what happens during the beginning stage of a bull market. I’ll say it again. The things that worked during the bear won’t work during a new bull. You have to throw everything you’ve been using for the last 4 years out the window and start fresh.

          • On February 21, 2016 at 1:54 am,
            Anders from Copenhagen says:

            Cheers, Gary.

          • On February 21, 2016 at 2:48 pm,
            Frank from moscow CCF says:

            thanks Gary…………….

      • On February 20, 2016 at 9:51 am,
        Marty says:

        Gary, nice to have you aboard both here & GS.com. So very appreciative of your perspective.

      • On February 20, 2016 at 12:17 pm,
        bb says:

        Not expecting a top until the hui reaches about 180ish.
        ok, whats that in gold price?
        thx to anyone that knows, Ill have to google it.
        same as talking gld, I never know what it means in the gold price.
        (i know, theres an equation) dont understand why people dont just talk gold price tho. lol

        • On February 20, 2016 at 12:44 pm,
          Matthew says:

          Not even google can answer that, BB. The miners can go into a strong bull market even if gold leaves bulls a lot to be desired.

    • On February 20, 2016 at 2:20 pm,
      Frank from moscow CCF says:

      Herbert…………..in Chris’s comments….. said, “he just recently got into gold”………therefore, I question his thought on “parabolic”…as I think Gary would…………….jmo

      • On February 20, 2016 at 2:23 pm,
        Frank from moscow CCF says:

        btw……thanks for the post………

        • On February 20, 2016 at 2:42 pm,
          Frank from moscow CCF says:

          Oh, and Welcome to the KER…………….

  7. On February 20, 2016 at 6:01 am,
    Marty says:

    Rick, Small world, I was at an Orioles game in Baltinore in the early 90s with my son and low and behold James Dale Davidson and a colleague sits right next to me, and before he sat down I was murmuring his name to him. In amazement he wondered how I knew who he was, I told him that I was a subscriber to his newsletter and occasionally saw him on CNN business. A very nice gentleman.

  8. On February 20, 2016 at 7:08 am,
    Dick Tracy says:

    I have said for many years now that what The US needs is a businessman to be The President of their country and when Donald Trump announced his intention to be The Republican candidate I felt he was the right choice. Canadians are very supportive of his thinking and ideas and I have gotten this feedback from trips to my dentist and barber. Just recently my hygienist asked me what I thought of Donald Trump and I said “I like him a lot but I’m not sure others agree”, to which she said “most of the people who are their clients speak very highly of him.”

    • On February 20, 2016 at 7:59 am,
      CFS says:

      I have spent considerable time looking into Trump’s history.
      I would never vote for him.
      He appears to have no guiding principles, other than “what is good for him”.
      He has been a Democrat for most of his life and I believe he is a most dangerous RINO; like Bloomberg, he is running as a Republican, only because he has a better chance of winning as a Republican, not because he believes in small government,
      Listen to what he says on issues…..all sound bites, no depth of policies.
      Further, because of his business history, he will be destroyed by the media.

      Big Al,
      What was not shown in the BBC video was his bad choice in business partners, his dealings with the mafia, hiring illegals, etc.
      As recently as 2013 he was boasting that without undocumented illegals, his golf course greens in Florida would be much more expensive to maintain.

      • On February 20, 2016 at 3:09 pm,
        gregd says:

        I agree with your comments on Trump. But with his bold statements that got him to this point, if he’s not a changed man, would you agree that he’s still hugely more acceptable than what we have had the last seven years?

        • On February 20, 2016 at 7:29 pm,
          CFS says:

          NO, gregd.

          He will put the final touch on the destruction of the US.
          The Constitution will be buried forever.

          • On February 20, 2016 at 7:37 pm,
            CFS says:
          • On February 20, 2016 at 9:26 pm,
            gregd says:

            Well… with Ron Paul not running I can find nobody else who is solid and consistant that I feel, even has a chance to lead this Country the way it needs. Its an embarrassment that these are the best we have. But that’s all they send us. No new ideas or old proven ones. We would have gotten ideas had we made elections public financed and only public financed. But that never comes up anymore.
            As an example, I follow these Candidates and they all say “we can’t deport 11 million illegal aliens” but nobody mentions that if you pass a law making it a high fine and jail time for anyone hiring one, they would self deport.
            So perhaps it might be best we collapse as a country rather than crumble.

          • On February 21, 2016 at 3:17 am,
            Anders form Copenhagen says:

            Trump is a good and needed challenge to the establishment.
            However, as CFS, I am afraid that he will not do any good as the President of the US.
            If I were a US citizen, I would cheer for Mr. Bloomberg. The most ‘Ron Paul like candidate’ in the crowd.
            Among ‘the usual suspects’, a loose cannon and an avowed socialist, I find Mr. Bloomberg a very enlightening alternative!


          • On February 21, 2016 at 8:58 am,
            Matthew says:

            Anders, Bloomberg is no Ron Paul. Not even slightly. He’s a statist just like the rest and couldn’t care less about protecting individual rights or promoting free markets.

          • On February 21, 2016 at 11:21 am,
            Anders from Copenhagen says:

            Maybe I should not have compared Mr. Bloomberg with Ron Paul. That was not wise of me. But, I do find him a much better alternative than the rest of the crazy crowd.
            He is a dark horse in this race. And dark horses also win races.

    • On February 20, 2016 at 9:52 am,
      proudcanuck says:

      I think we would be better served if our own Prime Minister were not a former drama teacher and trust fund baby. Starting with replacing our idiot bank governor who has brought down our currency 30-40% in the past 2 years with someone like Danielle Park or Bob Hoye.

  9. On February 20, 2016 at 7:36 am,
    Ebolan says:

    Rick Ackerman of Ricks Picks talks about his career. This would make a great movie.

    If a movie is going to be made about the life and times of Rick Ackerman I would like to know who will play Rick? Who is Rick’s pick? And who would play Big Al Korelin?

    • On February 20, 2016 at 7:47 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Funny Ebolan, and great questions.

    • On February 20, 2016 at 9:56 am,
      proudcanuck says:

      It sounded from the interview like you covered to about the mid 90’s…it would be great to hear a follow-up on the past 20 yrs also…like getting back into trading, developing his hp method etc.

  10. On February 20, 2016 at 9:06 am,
    Excelsior says:

    When Will Gold and Gold Stocks Correct?
    02/19/2016 | Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT


    • On February 20, 2016 at 9:08 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Gold Stocks: Top Or Bull Flag?
      Morris Hubbartt

      Super Force Precious Metals Video Analysis – posted Feb 19, 2016 on 321gold

      (check out the different videos – which are the BLUE links)


    • On February 21, 2016 at 12:37 pm,
      Frank from moscow CCF says:

      EX……….thanks for the post……..on Jordan Roy-Byrne….

  11. On February 20, 2016 at 9:34 am,
    Matthew says:

    When the gold-oil ratio was 35.48…

    On January 10, 2016 at 1:13 pm,
    Matthew says:

    Here’s an interesting one. Gold has now tripled versus oil since the summer of 2013 and looks like it could be starting a blowoff that takes it to over 40 barrels per ounce.

    Those who have plenty of gold should fade the whole move, in my opinion. (And buy gold and silver stocks, of course.)


    The ratio hit 43.55 last week and is now back down to 38.38.

    • On February 20, 2016 at 9:42 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Check out the bar chart up at the top in the discussion with Dragonite about Silver stocks. I even went back and added in Alexco for ya man (even though they are technically not producing at present). Both Alexco and Americas Silver finished over 170% from Jan 19th to Feb 19th (based on the closing prices). 🙂 Nice!

      Thanks for all your ideas hashing over the micro-cap stocks.

      • On February 20, 2016 at 10:05 am,
        Matthew says:

        Thanks. I don’t know where to find the comment but you might recall that I said AXU would probably offer a little more leverage to silver than IPT (even though IPT probably has more potential upside long term).
        In 21 days from AXU’s low, it went up as much as 281% while IPT went up as much as 168% from its low and took just 10 days.

        • On February 20, 2016 at 10:59 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Yes sir, you were spot on man. Fun times.

          • On February 21, 2016 at 12:39 pm,
            Frank from moscow CCF says:

            dang right…………..or….. you are not franking kidding……

          • On February 21, 2016 at 2:05 pm,
            Excelsior says:


        • On February 21, 2016 at 10:10 am,
          Brian says:

          If we have the bull market in silver that we all expect, 19th of January will be a milestone. I actually bought more Alexco that day @$US 0.26. I’m going to hold onto those shares tightly. Who knows, if silver goes to $100 then Alexco could be a $25 stock = 100 bagger.

          • On February 21, 2016 at 10:29 am,
            Matthew says:

            I think AXU will be $25 at $50 silver. The next time silver hits $50, the economy and AXu’s profitability will be much different than they were in 2011. There will also be far fewer appealing asset classes to compete for investors’ attention.

          • On February 21, 2016 at 10:29 am,
            Matthew says:

            I still have 90% of my position.

  12. On February 20, 2016 at 9:38 am,
    Marty says:

    Al, you can count on 2 hands the number of times the Au/Ag ratio has reached or exceeded 80 the last 25 years, although it stayed above 80 for much of the early 90s. It reached there 2/19. So purchasing a little right now was pretty intuitive. Ain’t nothing quite like holding ” The Real Thang.”

  13. On February 20, 2016 at 9:45 am,
    Matthew says:

    I forgot about this one:


    If you can’t see the chart, when gold was 1088…

    On January 10, 2016 at 8:24 am,
    Matthew says:

    Gold is up 4.11% for the week. This gains plenty of significance when you consider how world stock markets performed. Gold is worth 11% more Dow in just one week and is a daily and weekly chart BUY on good volume — highest weekly in months.

    • On February 20, 2016 at 9:47 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Great call.

  14. On February 20, 2016 at 10:02 am,
    CFS says:

    For what it’s worth.

    gives the best list of Cameron’s desires and actual achievements re: Brexit, which is 123 days away.
    I expect heavy lobbying to occur from both sides, but believe the result will depend on the state of the British economy in June.
    Hard to call right now.
    Clearly, Brexit would lead to the slow collapse of the EU, which I suspect will slowly die anyway. (The extra economic drag caused by the extra layer of bureaucracy only makes any sense if either you are a pure Keynesian or if you believe trade tariffs would be much higher without the EU.

  15. On February 20, 2016 at 10:10 am,
    Matthew says:

    Since the following comment was made, FR is up 34% and IPT is up 104%.

    On January 10, 2016 at 9:27 am,
    Matthew says:

    If you’re not placing huge money, I’d buy Impact Silver before First Majestic.

  16. On February 20, 2016 at 10:31 am,
    Brian says:

    It’s official: Claude is the first 10-bagger. If you bought shares in late-2013 when the PPS was $C 0.12 congratulations.


    • On February 20, 2016 at 11:37 am,
      Temple says:

      Thank you!

    • On February 21, 2016 at 9:04 am,
      Frank from moscow CCF says:

      JUST GOES TO SHOW…….SOME OF the TROLLS…..did not understand the market…jmho

  17. On February 20, 2016 at 10:31 am,
    PF says:

    The odds would still favor Clinton getting elected. Sanders can only be competitive against her in some states, but will lose badly in the South. In the general election (Clinton vs. Trump/Cruz/Rubio), the Republicans would need to win most of the swing states like Florida and Ohio. But the Democrats could split those swing states and still win the election. The math favors the Democrats in the general election. Michael Bloomberg is the X-factor that could change everything.

  18. On February 20, 2016 at 11:31 am,
    BXM says:

    I think the Brien Lundin comment that QE fundamentals are driving/ will drive a bull rally fly in the face of golds drop over the past 2 QE’s. How do you square that circle?

  19. On February 20, 2016 at 11:57 am,
    Chartster says:

    Sanders and Trump are going to run away with it.
    The cabal candidates are cooked! ( the rest of them are cabal )
    America wins!!

    It will be interesting to watch Trump expose the rigged process of the electoral college and the super delegates. That guy exposes everyone!
    And America wins!!

    • On February 20, 2016 at 12:47 pm,
      Matthew says:

      I can’t believe you’re falling for it, Chartster. Those two are not enemies of the “cabal” even if the D and R bigwigs thoroughly dislike them.

      • On February 20, 2016 at 1:19 pm,
        Chartster says:

        I can’t believe you can’t see it for what it is, Matthew.
        Sanders and Trump both are changing the game.

        The game for years has been, put up a candidates that “appear” different, when all the while it matters not who is elected. A prime example is Clinton and Bush. Even Cruz and Rubio are the same ilk. There’s virtually no difference, both answer to the same puppet masters. Both will ultimately be funded by the same groups. When Jeb drops out, his donors will go to Clinton, Cruz and Rubio. Trump and Sanders are the paradigm shift for the American people. The younger generation has awakened. Thank God, cause most of the older folks in the US are shot-out-brain-washed.

        • On February 20, 2016 at 1:34 pm,
          Matthew says:

          I couldn’t disagree more Chartster. The shift either offers is in the minds of the confused and hopeful. Those who know economics or right from wrong know that the supporters of either are still fast asleep.
          The people’s unshakable need to believe is as powerful as their ability to shun the facts (of course, few have equipped themselves to understand which facts are significant and why).

          • On February 20, 2016 at 2:17 pm,
            Chartster says:

            All I’m saying is, Trump is exposing the process and Sanders is exposing the corrupt system. This hasn’t happened in over 50 years since JFK.
            Both Trump and Sanders are a breath of fresh air and they at least are exposing the politics of the nation. Exposing the corruption is needed. It’s a step in the right direction. The last 50 years has been a mind controlled brainwash electorate that is clueless. Now it has changed.

          • On February 20, 2016 at 2:27 pm,
            Frank from moscow CCF says:

            Educated college kids…….are now getting their college loan wake up call…..without a job to pay the loan back, are starting to see…..something stinks…..

          • On February 20, 2016 at 2:47 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Both are a cog in the corrupt machine and so was JFK. Do not believe the myth of saint JFK.

          • On February 20, 2016 at 3:15 pm,
            Chartster says:

            You can bitch about everyone, but you should acknowledge progress when it exists. And it does.
            I look at it this way. When John McCain, l Grayham, Soros, Shumer, Obama the MSM and the Pope all lash out against Trump? I Like Him!! He is exposing all of the corrupt groups!

            Everyone’s comments against Trump have been very interesting. This election is way different than any I’ve seen. Watching everyone expose them selves has been fascinating, to say the least.

          • On February 20, 2016 at 5:54 pm,
            Matthew says:

            What’s fascinating to me is that you don’t see how differently the media is handling him compared to the way they handled Ron Paul. The tactics are very different because Trump is no threat at all to the status quo.
            You’re getting played by one more D.C. production. I don’t know who said it, but it’s true that politics is Hollywood for ugly people.

          • On February 20, 2016 at 5:56 pm,
            Matthew says:

            The media obviously loves Bernie, btw.

          • On February 20, 2016 at 6:14 pm,
            Chartster says:

            The media is all about ratings. Being controversial gets ratings. Notice how they always try to discount what he says. And then his poll numbers soar.

            I guess we both look at it from two different angles.

          • On February 22, 2016 at 10:44 am,
            GH says:

            You really believe the brainwashing gets shaken off this easily? The masses still know nothing, but now they’ve savvied up enough to escape the trap and re-take control of their political system? Not even.

            Look at Sanders calling for Saudi Arabia to take the lead in Syria. Look at Trump calling for the execution of Snowden. A couple of extras for the DC plot, nothing more.

          • On February 22, 2016 at 11:05 am,
            Matthew says:

            Damn right, GH. Stick a fork in ‘er, the U.S. is long past done.

        • On February 20, 2016 at 7:06 pm,
          CFS says:

          You seriously think Trump will change the game, Chartster?
          You are being FOOLED by a pathological liar……Trump.

          He says he will built a wall on the southern border.
          So how come he met with “Dreamers” in Trump tower and said that he supported illegal immigration?

          • On February 20, 2016 at 7:13 pm,
            CFS says:

            You think Ytump is a Republican, Chartster?
            In NAME ONLY. He is a DEMOCRAT…..Always has been.

            You think he will cut government? BS.
            He is for government support of Planned Parenthood.
            He is for a National Healthcare System.
            He is for Eminent Domain abuse, whereby Government can seize private property even if it is not for public use.

            Did you know he has paid money to support Democrats running against Tea-Party candidates?

          • On February 20, 2016 at 7:20 pm,
            CFS says:

            Did you know Trump has mob ties?

            You think he can vet advisers and make good choices. Ha, what a laugh.
            He has several business partners (i.e. more than two) that went to jail or permanently left the US to avoid prosecution.

            Trump is a good showman, but honest? NO. He is a joke of an ethical human being.

            Listen to this Dana Loesch show:

            Want more citations of his unethical behavior? Just ask.

          • On February 20, 2016 at 7:29 pm,
            Chartster says:

            I don’t vote republican or democrat. I vote who I think will change things for the better. Trump used the system for his business for all it’s worth. I respect that! He is quite a good businessman, no? That article proves he is adapt.

            At this point, I believe he wants to leave a valuable legacy. He’s putting it all on the line. His enemies are many! No one would put him self in the crosshairs without a major conviction to make major changes, as he is doing now.

            He’s one of very few with brains and balls.

          • On February 21, 2016 at 9:18 am,
            Frank from moscow CCF says:

            BYE, BYE…….BUSH…………..

        • On February 20, 2016 at 8:20 pm,
          confused says:


    • On February 20, 2016 at 8:03 pm,
      CFS says:

      Not everything Trump says should be believed.


      Listen to this radio show:

      The liberal media is accumulating so much dishonest behavior by Trump, which will not be aired until July.
      He will not be elected in November even if he wins the nomination.

      • On February 21, 2016 at 12:56 pm,
        Frank from moscow CCF says:

        the educational system is a scam………..stop thinking that college is the college of the 1910. True education stopped a long time ago.

        • On February 21, 2016 at 1:01 pm,
          Frank from moscow CCF says:

          Today…….a private college is $35,000 per yr……and most come out uneducated.

  20. On February 20, 2016 at 12:50 pm,
    Paul L says:


    * New fields to add 3 mln bpd of oil in 2016 – Rystad

    * More than $220 bln of projects scrapped since 2014

    * New production to delay market rebalancing

    By Ron Bousso

    LONDON, Feb 18 (Reuters) – As oil firms scrap dozens of billions worth of mega projects essential for supplies in decades ahead, fresh output from huge fields already being developed is set to weigh for many more months on an oil market struggling to shake off a glut.

    A collapse in oil prices over the past 20 months to below $30 a barrel has taken a heavy toll on production around the world, reversing spectacular growth in U.S. shale oil and halting plans to develop costly and complex fields deep in oceans or treacherous seas such as the Alaska Arctic.

    But companies that have been investing often more than $10 billion in projects that were approved in the first half of the decade, when oil fetched in excess of $100 a barrel, are pushing ahead with many of their developments.

    These include the TEN field off the coast of Ghana, operated by British company Tullow Oil, which is set to start production in the middle of this year, expansions at Chevron’s Jack/St Malo field in the Gulf of Mexico and at Cenovus’ Foster Creek oil-sands field in Canada.

    Around 3 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil production is set to come on stream in 2016 from projects whose development started as early as 2013, according to Oslo-based consultancy Rystad Energy.

    These projects will add a further 1.5 million bpd in 2017, with around two-thirds of the production coming from offshore developments.


    Patrick Pouyanne, chief executive of French oil major Total , was unapologetic about boosting his production by more than 9 percent this year even as the world faces a huge production overhang.

    “We are all still investing in projects we decided in 2012-2013 and 2014. These projects will be put in production in 2016, 2017 and still 2018,” Pouyanne said last week at the International Petroleum Week conference in London.

    “I am not sure we participated in the stabilisation of the market, but you know, there is only one good reaction when you face a crisis, that is to be selfish and produce as much cash as you can.”

    Total in recent years began production from the CLOV field off Angola’s coast, in which BP, Statoil and Exxon Mobil are partners. It is on track to launch the ultra-deepwater Kaombo project, also in Angola, in 2017.

    In January, Anadarko started production from its Heidelberg project in the Gulf of Mexico which was discovered in 2009 and started development three years later.

    The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects production in the Gulf of Mexico to rise from 1.5 million bpd in 2015 to 1.8 million bpd in 2017, offsetting some of the declines in shale oil production.

    The ramp-up of production from projects is equally vital for the host nations, particularly economies that depend heavily on oil revenue such as Angola, Nigeria or Mexico, where national oil companies are partners in the developments.

    The vast majority of the world’s projects of over $1 billion are formed by joint ventures between international and national oil companies, according to data from consultancy EY.


    With more than $220 billion of oil and gas projects cancelled or put on hold since the start of oil’s price decline and companies slashing spending plans, a correction in global supplies is under way, Rystad Energy head of analysis Per Magnus Nysveen told Reuters.

    Production from mature fields is nevertheless set to decline by around 3 million bpd this year due to natural field decline and lower investment.

    “Behind the scenes there is a lot of correction going on because old producing fields are declining faster than they used to because there is less drilling,” Nysveen said.

    Global oil production is expected to align with demand towards the year-end as U.S. shale output declines, even though the world will continue to store unwanted barrels for the rest of 2016, the International Energy Agency says.

    That means the rebalancing is taking far longer than most OPEC members had anticipated when the exporter group’s leader pushed through a strategy in late 2014 to maximize output and drive higher-cost producers out of the market.

    New production is likely to delay the rebalancing further, analysts at U.S.-based investment bank Evercore said.

    “While ultimately lower upstream (oil production) capital will drive lower aggregate supply, evidence suggests the balancing point is shifting to the right,” Evercore said.

    This sets “a challenging environment for the market to question the sustainability of demand trends, and (is) likely a reflection of today’s market reality, in our view”.

    (Reporting by Ron Bousso; Editing by Dale Hudson)

  21. On February 20, 2016 at 12:56 pm,
    FranSix says:


    With the steepening of the yield curve in Canada, and the flattening of the yield curve in the U.S., the $CAD should see a lengthy rally:


    The only ETF I’ve been able to find is the FXC, on the NYSE.

  22. On February 20, 2016 at 1:28 pm,
    Frank from moscow CCF says:

    Thanks for an informational Weekend show…………..One line CCF..

  23. On February 20, 2016 at 1:52 pm,
    Matthew says:
    • On February 20, 2016 at 8:46 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Here are some companies with a good Zinc credit:

      Nevsun Resources
      Trevali Mining
      Canadian Zinc
      InZinc Mining
      Thunderstruck Resources
      Pasinex Resources
      Slam Exploration

      • On February 21, 2016 at 5:53 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        I should really add that while I still view Arizona Mining as Silver play (formerly Wildcat Silver), they really have made some big Zinc discoveries at the Taylor deposit near their existing Central Deposit at the Hermosa Project mine.

        Here is the corporate presentation for Arizona Mining:


    • On February 20, 2016 at 11:50 pm,
      Skeeta says:

      Thanks for the link Matthew,
      At present, my ASX listed zinc plays are underwater.
      Hopefully this will breathe some more life into them 😉

  24. On February 20, 2016 at 4:50 pm,
    Dick Tracy says:

    I believe if Trump wins The US economy will begin to show some life, and they can take the IV out.

  25. On February 20, 2016 at 6:19 pm,
    CFS says:

    The state of the economy in Hungary is not good and the Parliament has delegated economic stimulation to the Bank of Hungary.
    Hungary’s central bank, already facing criticism for a spending spree ranging from real estate to fine art, is now beefing up its security force, citing Europe’s migrant crisis and potential bomb threats among the reasons.
    The National Bank of Hungary bought 200,000 rounds of live ammunition and 112 handguns for its security company, according to documents posted on a website for public procurements. (Bloomberg)
    Revolution is a possibility if the migration problem is not dealt with soon.

  26. On February 20, 2016 at 9:03 pm,
    Chris in Thailand says:

    I have voted for Libertarians my whole life, however i will be voting for Trump this years. And include my two daughters in that too. Screw the establishment New world Order pukes like Bush, Rubio and Cruz

  27. On February 20, 2016 at 11:00 pm,
    Brian says:

    I REALLY urge everyone to routinely peruse the posts over at Gold Tent.

    This is an extraordinary chart showing the massive move back into GLD. Remember, GLD influx WILL pressure gold prices upwards.

    I believe a chart like this significantly reduces the relevance of old-school, COT charts and analysis.



    • On February 21, 2016 at 9:23 am,
      Frank from moscow CCF says:

      THANKS BRIAN…………………

  28. On February 21, 2016 at 1:15 am,
    Chris in Thailand says:

    That’s a huge spike in volume at the end……interesting.

    • On February 21, 2016 at 9:28 am,
      Frank from moscow CCF says:


  29. On February 21, 2016 at 3:32 am,
    Anders form Copenhagen says:

    Thanks for posting the link.
    Very interesting analysis!

  30. On February 21, 2016 at 5:28 am,
    FranSix says:

    Two for one Ross Clark, Rick Ackerman interview:


    • On February 21, 2016 at 9:22 am,
      Matthew says:

      It’s good to know that Clark’s reading of the COTs is about like mine – we’re probably a few weeks away from the danger zone.

    • On February 21, 2016 at 9:45 am,
      Frank from moscow CCF says:

      Fran6……….thanks for the post…………….

      • On February 21, 2016 at 9:57 am,
        CFS says:

        In response to Rick’s commentary:
        Second, while Americans have not been noticing,
        the problem with the US is increasing taxation and regulation.
        That’s why in a marriage, most often both the husband and wife have to work.
        Corporate taxation is the HIGHEST in the world. The average Joe in the street won’t notice it directly, but it has contributed to the destruction of the US economy.
        Over-regulation in everything is rampant in the US Nanny state.
        Land of the Free! What a joke!
        Land of the sleeping simmering frogs, maybe.

        • On February 21, 2016 at 10:10 am,
          Matthew says:

          What Joe blow doesn’t know is that he pays the corporate tax both directly, as it is passed on to (and onto) the consumer, and indirectly as all taxation reduces economic prosperity and, therefore, jobs.

    • On February 21, 2016 at 9:48 am,
      CFS says:

      That was an interesting commentary by Rick.
      I believe he was incorrect as regards Russia financially needing to pump as much oil as it can.
      First, Russia’s current account is in surplus.
      e.g. Russia Current account balance as % of GDP is +4.4%
      Compared with US at -2.5%
      Saudi Arabia at -2.7%
      (Data from page 90 of The Economist February 20, 2016)

      To increase knowledge within this group, I might also include the latest oil production numbers: (Rounded to nearest million barrels per day, from p 65 of The Economist) Largest producers:
      USA 13 Mil. barrels/day
      Russia 11
      Saudi Arabia 10
      Canada 4
      China 4
      Iraq 4
      U.A.E. 3
      Iran 3
      Kuwait 3
      Brazil 2 mil. barrels per day December 2015.

      • On February 21, 2016 at 10:01 am,
        CFS says:

        Third, Rick, if you don’t think the Bond market is in a bubble, because of direct monetization by the US, you and I have different definition of “bubble”.

        I’m not going to say it will pop, because I believe the US will monetize to infinity and beyond.

        • On February 21, 2016 at 10:16 am,
          Matthew says:

          Priced in real money, the bond bubble began to pop 15 years ago and is now turning down from its 4.5 year bounce.


          • On February 21, 2016 at 10:20 am,
            Matthew says:
          • On February 21, 2016 at 11:30 am,
            CFS says:

            Longer term bonds are, indeed, dropping.
            Just wait until food prices rise.

      • On February 21, 2016 at 10:59 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Crashing crude prices expected to hit Canada’s banks as earnings loom
        Paul Bagnell, Host, BNN | February 19, 2016


    • On February 21, 2016 at 10:09 pm,
      Frank from moscow CCF says:

      Hi Irish………..hope all is well, thanks for posting………

  31. On February 21, 2016 at 7:42 am,
    Matthew says:

    Silver does not look like it’s going to fall apart:


  32. On February 21, 2016 at 8:42 am,
    Karl345345 says:

    Gosh the bullishness on KER is pervasive. What’s it’s like in the mainstream? I don’t watch cnbc or Bloomberg. Personally I think it is the mother of all bear traps. Gary will be crying manipulation in a few weeks. I can’t see how gold can resume its cyclical bull when other commodities like oil have not yet bottomed or confirmed a bottom.

    I have a few juniors which I will hold but am not buying anything yet. In fact I am short large caps. They will be hammered hard if gold does not resume its uptrend.

    • On February 21, 2016 at 8:53 am,
      Matthew says:

      Karl, at the start of the bull market in 2000, the gold bugs index bottomed a month before the commodities heavy TSX-V and went on to dramatically outperform it for a long time. It’s a mistake to treat gold like any other commodity.

      This is no bear trap but that does not guarantee that there won’t be a very scary correction soon.


      • On February 21, 2016 at 8:53 am,
        Matthew says:

        Oops, I also meant to say “bull trap.”

    • On February 21, 2016 at 9:25 am,
      Frank from moscow CCF says:

      I Find it hard to put oil in my safety deposit box…………… 🙂

  33. On February 21, 2016 at 8:43 am,
    Karl345345 says:

    Meant to say bull traps.

  34. On February 21, 2016 at 8:44 am,
    Matthew says:

    Silver has crashed versus AXU (and most silver miners):


    The miners are in a new bull market.

  35. On February 21, 2016 at 9:52 am,
    Matthew says:

    Fibonacci fan support for AXU for the coming week is .66 followed by .58:


    • On February 21, 2016 at 9:57 am,
      Matthew says:

      The standard Fibonacci 382 retracement from Thursday’s high (closing and intraday) is .59-.60:


  36. On February 21, 2016 at 9:58 am,
    Bobby says:

    Well, I was Wrong regarding Jeb, somehow i thought his family would overcome. Looking better for The Donald as the rest of the field is weak. I cant imagine Trump as president….his changes for the country would be devastating imno to quote the master.

    • On February 21, 2016 at 11:28 am,
      Frank from moscow CCF says:

      The entire election process is a joke at this point…………jmo

      • On February 21, 2016 at 12:08 pm,
        Bobby says:

        I find it repulsive. It will be very interesting to see who the elite have chosen.

        • On February 21, 2016 at 12:32 pm,
          Frank from moscow CCF says:


  37. On February 21, 2016 at 10:11 am,
    Dick Tracy says:

    CFS, it is totally naive of you to suggest that anyone could be a developer and in this case a major developer (Trump) in Manhattan and the other burroughs of New York city and not be constantly brushing shoulders with organized crime. (mafia as you suggest). Anyone who can survive and thrive in that atmosphere must be as street smart as a fox. I think that is what we are seeing with his campaign. In fact this also like saying that you don’t have an agenda but we all know that’s not true.

    • On February 21, 2016 at 2:43 pm,
      CFS says:

      You are probably right DT, I just don’t want an amoral unprincipled,left-leaning, ego-centric, fill in the expletive, as president.
      I prefer to have someone that has, at least, read the Constitution.

      • On February 21, 2016 at 5:15 pm,
        Robert J Moriarty says:


        Or better yet, been a Constitutional professor.

        • On February 21, 2016 at 6:48 pm,
          CFS says:

          Very Funny, Mr. Moriarty.
          I would indeed prefer even a Constitutional Professor over a sinecured adjunct Lecturer.

          • On February 21, 2016 at 7:05 pm,
            CFS says:

            Like I said, Mr Moriarty, “I just don’t want an amoral unprincipled,left-leaning, ego-centric, fill in the expletive, as president”, even if he has a pen and a phone.

      • On February 22, 2016 at 8:52 am,
        Robert J Moriarty says:


        It’s end of empire. You get what you pay for and you get it good and hard.

  38. On February 21, 2016 at 10:18 am,
    bb says:

    Just listened to Rick at talk digital network.
    He spoke about the “ghost cities” in China, I always wondered why the refugees were not moved into one of these cities.
    This refugee invasion of Europe must be planned.

    • On February 21, 2016 at 10:29 am,
      Dick Tracy says:

      bb, The Chinese have always been heavy handed in control, and in their favor when it comes to foreign intrusion in their economy and in their country. They have thousands of years of resistance which won’t go away if ever. Do you remember gunboat diplomacy in the 1800’s to try and get them to trade.

  39. On February 21, 2016 at 10:59 am,
    bb says:

    Ya, I guess thats it DT.
    I hadnt considered that.

  40. On February 21, 2016 at 11:37 am,
    CFS says:
  41. On February 21, 2016 at 11:44 am,
    CFS says:

    Sprott in the second commentary of:
    gives reasons for silver.

    • On February 21, 2016 at 1:12 pm,
      Frank from moscow CCF says:

      US citizen is to obedient(to stupid laws) in the states, per HUGO……

  42. On February 21, 2016 at 11:48 am,
    Karl345345 says:

    An interesting presentation from raoul Paul in November 2014. Some of his his macro themes have played out subsequently.


    • On February 21, 2016 at 11:58 am,
      irishtony says:

      John Thomas , in pig head Cameron is NOT amused ….HaHaHa.
      Yes a few years ago our lying PM told the people of the UK they could have a free referendum on the EU & he would go along with what the people decided .
      Now it turns out he will only go along if the people vote to stay in…..Bastard.

    • On February 21, 2016 at 12:33 pm,
      CFS says:

      Given that the EU Court over-rides the English legal system, given that the extra layer of stupid bureaucracy is darned expensive and wasteful, given that Brexit would allow a re-building of trade with ex-colonies, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, etc., who in their right minds would not vote for Brexit. EU needs UK more than UK needs the EU…..that is bargaining power.

      • On February 21, 2016 at 1:02 pm,
        irishtony says:

        CFS…It will be interesting to see what happens to the British pound in the FX markets after the announcement by Boris. What do you think?

        • On February 21, 2016 at 2:48 pm,
          CFS says:

          I have no idea on exchange rates. It seems to depend more on the balance of trade than hedge fund action provoked by newspaper headlines.

  43. On February 21, 2016 at 12:26 pm,
    CFS says:
    • On February 21, 2016 at 5:10 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Thanks CFS. That was a great interview on Palisade with Russell Fryer!

      He is the first analyst I’ve heard in a long time that really has a good grasp on the Uranium producers, the real cash costs and AISC for the hard rock versus the insitu producers and the big disconnect between producers (some with mills) that are undervalued versus the lofty valuations some of the explorers are getting that likely will never make it into production.

      I completely agree with his point that “The companies that control the mill control the district”. He mentions how both Denison has the mill in the Athabasca and really camps out on Energy Fuels and their mill as a game changer for supply the US energy demand. (he didn’t mention it, but ironically Energy Fuels got that White Mesa mill from Denison). He is spot on as to the difficulty in getting a new mill approved, and how both of these companies will benefit from milling arrangements where they get tolling money because other companies will be forced to use their mills.

      I also think he made a great point about companies like Energy Fuels, Western Uranium, UEC corp, and Ur-Energy being the companies that will drive the US markets. (I’d also add Uranium Resources to that list).

      Most people in the energy sector still don’t seem to grasp the incredibly bullish supply demand fundamentals in regards to nuclear energy, and seem to miss the fact that the largest nuclear nation on earth is the USA, and it imports 90% of the Uranium it needs. Hello….ding, ding, ding! As a comparison; what would US oil producers be worth if we had to import 90% of the oil?

      The companies that supply the US energy companies will do amazing in this next cycle, and companies like those mentioned above will thrive much more than many of the speculative explorers (including many of the companies in Canada). Yes there is tons of opportunity to supply the east as well, but it isn’t just a narrative about one country, as nuclear is a global marketplace.

      Lastly Russell made a fantastic point about how most of the Canadian companies scrambling to stake claims in the Athabasca Basis, are just fluff stories, and they likely will never make it into production. Cameco is the kingpin, and Denison with their mill will mop up much of the rest of the district. Fission and Nexgen are great exploration plays with high grades, but as he mentioned, new processing technology in milling is allowing other companies to feed ore with with those same grades into their circuits, without the huge expense of the Athabasca. He really knocked the froth of that Athabasca play, and rightly so as it has garnered 90% of the focus from the marketplace, yet it is not where the production is going to be coming from to feed the US market. He also mentioned the 4 corners area and TX, as other emerging trends beyond the Wyoming hotspot in the US.

      This was a great interview from someone that gets it in the Uranium space. Refreshing.

  44. On February 21, 2016 at 12:36 pm,
    Karl345345 says:

    Super bear Russell Napier recommends cash,treasuries and gold in a deflationary world.


    • On February 21, 2016 at 1:32 pm,
      Frank from moscow CCF says:

      “RULES ARE CHANGING”…………..great post………thanks Karl

    • On February 21, 2016 at 2:53 pm,
      CFS says:

      A canny scot.

      • On February 22, 2016 at 7:57 am,
        Power Corrupts says:

        Yes, Russell Napier is a brilliant student of market history. His book “Anatomy of the Bear” is a classic study of the 4 major secular bear markets in the 20th century in the US. He posited in the book (I read the first edition published around 2004) that 2014 would be the time frame for the final bear market low of the current secular bear. I don’t believe he anticipated the extent of central bank intervention following the 2008 GFC though. Looking forward to listening to this post, thank you Karl345345…

        • On February 22, 2016 at 8:06 am,
          Power Corrupts says:

          Somehow I tuned into Carl Rove on the tube Friday night. He was talking about US political campaigns in the 1890’s. It was very enlightening, and I was amazed at how knowledgeable he was about the seemingly smallest details of those races. He was also extremely well informed about the hard money (gold) easy money (silver) causes of that time. I was pleasantly surprised at his knowledge, but now even more disappointed knowing that he obviously understood the consequences of the economic policies of the administration he served.

  45. On February 21, 2016 at 2:49 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Orex Minerals Completes Initial Program of 17 Drill Holes at Canasil’s Sandra-Escobar Silver Project in Durango State, Mexico
    Vancouver, February 18, 2016 – Canasil Resources Inc.


    • On February 21, 2016 at 2:57 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Canasil – 7 Drill Ready Projects in Mexico & BC

      1. Salamandra, Durango, Mexico
      Large Silver-Zinc-Copper mineralized system
      Airborne ZTEM survey and surface sampling define drill targets
      *Option agreement with MAG Silver – 14,380 m drill program completed
      2. Sandra & Escobar, Durango, Mexico
      Gold Silver, disseminated and high grade veins
      7 target zones identified over 25 sq. km. area for drill testing
      *Option agreement with Orex Minerals – 2,000 m drill program planned
      3. La Esperanza, Durango & Zacatecas, Mexico
      High-grade Silver-Zinc-Lead vein system with district scale potential
      *On recognized Fresnillo Silver trend close to several operating mines
      4. Brenda, BC, Canada
      Gold/Copper Porphyry system close to Aurico Metals Kemess deposit
      5. Carina, Durango, Mexico
      Disseminated Silver Gold; Adjacent to Coeur d’Alene La Preciosa deposit
      6. Vizcaino, Durango, Mexico
      Gold/Silver vein – Drill targets defined for testing
      7. Lil, BC, Canada
      High grade Silver vein system

  46. On February 21, 2016 at 3:12 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    In addition to Canasil’s exploration upside, I’ve been interested in the story developing with Canarc Resource Corp. They just got the permit to revamp an existing plant, and this is a huge advantage over trying to go through the permitting process to get approved to build a new plant of their own. Very strategic move on their part, and it allows them to go into production this year.

    Canarc Leases Permitted “La Plata” Processing Plant in Zacatecas Mexico
    Vancouver, Canada – February 1, 2016

    “Canarc plans to use the plant for processing ore from the Company’s recently acquired, permitted El Compas Mine, located 20 kilometers away from the plant by road. Canarc also agreed to reserve up to 100 tonnes per day for toll milling of ores produced by local small miners in the area.”

    “The plant was constructed by the Zacatecas state government in September 2013 for processing minerals available from local small miners in the state. The plant last operated in October 2014 and it remains a fully permitted crushing, grinding, flotation and tailings facility.

    Canarc technical staff inspected the plant equipment and found it to be in generally good condition but it requires approximately US$1 million in capital investment to refurbish certain pieces of equipment and recommence operations.”


  47. On February 21, 2016 at 4:27 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    CFS had mentioned a company last week – Maya Gold & Silver. I finally had some time to look into their projects and it is interesting that they recently became a small producer in Morocco Zgounder Silver Mine, and they have an interesting 2nd Boumadine mine in development w/ old tailings from prior mining that can be monetized. It is an interesting company to keep an eye on.

    Here is the most recent corporate presentation for Maya Gold & Silver:


    • On February 21, 2016 at 6:10 pm,
      CFS says:

      since you’ve mentioned my name, i’ll comment on another producer that recently reported:
      TORONTO, Feb. 8, 2016 /CNW/ – Alacer Gold Corp. (“Alacer” or the “Corporation”) [TSX: ASR and ASX: AQG] announced today that it has filed its operating and financial results and related management’s discussion and analysis (“MD&A”) for the full-year ended December 31, 2015. The corresponding financial statements and MD&A are available on http://www.AlacerGold.com and on http://www.SEDAR.com. All currencies referenced herein are denominated in USD unless otherwise stated.

      Rod Antal, Alacer’s President and Chief Executive Officer, stated, “In 2015 the Corporation delivered both operating and cost targets. The Çöpler Gold Mine met full-year production guidance, producing 204,665 ounces of gold at Total Cash Costs[1] of $482 an ounce and All-in Sustaining Costs1 of $690 per ounce.

      In 2016, we anticipate another strong year, as Çöpler will produce between 150,000 – 170,000 ounces of gold at Total Cash Costs of $575 to $625 an ounce. Alacer remains focused on its exploration efforts in the Çöpler District and based on the recent drill results, we are optimistic that we will be able to extend the oxide production at Çöpler.
      According to its reported numbers that gives it a P/E of about 12.
      I don’t own the stock, but it appears to be funding further exploration out of current production. I don’t like the number of shares out. It has not run up in price yet and is not heavily discussed in the media.
      Compared with ABX, which has run up, I infinitely prefer Alacer.

      • On February 21, 2016 at 6:51 pm,
        CFS says:

        Oceana Gold also has a P/E of 12.

        OceanaGold Corporation (OTCPK:OCANF) Q4 2015 Earnings Conference Call February 18, 2016 4:30 PM ET
        Let me go through the result summary and we’ve seen these numbers before for the production and I’ll just go through them again. 419,000 ounces which is just ahead of our guidance and copper production is within guidance at 23,000 tonnes, all-in sustaining costs within our guidance at $709 per ounce, so demonstrating the continued strong cash flow in the business. On the financials revenue was down, probably as reasons to do with the metal prices but EBITDA was still strong at 193 million, with net profit of 53 million which is down because of the lower revenues and some transaction costs associated with the M&A.

        • On February 21, 2016 at 7:01 pm,
          CFS says:

          Another way to find interesting companies is to follow what is being bought by successful investors:
          DENVER, COLORADO and VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA–(Marketwired – Feb. 12, 2016) – Sandspring Resources Ltd. (TSX VENTURE:SSP) (OTCQX:SSPXF) (“Sandspring” or the “Company”) has been advised that Fiore Financial Corporation, a company owned and controlled by Mr. Frank Giustra, acquired 2,615,000 common shares from the exercise of share purchase warrants at an exercise price of $0.15 per common share, and Mr. Giustra has acquired 2,000,000 common shares of Sandspring in the public market at an average price of $0.176 per common share. The acquisitions represent 5.18% of the issued and outstanding common shares of the Company.

          As a result of the acquisition of securities described above, Mr. Giustra directly and indirectly owns or controls in aggregate 10,951,500 common shares of the Issuer, representing 12.85% of the current issued and outstanding common shares of the Company. Assuming exercise of the 400,000 options and 3,040,000 share purchase warrants held by Mr. Giustra directly and indirectly, Mr. Giustra would own or control 14,391,500 common shares of Sandspring, representing 16.23% of the issued and outstanding common shares of the Company on a partially diluted basis.

          • On February 21, 2016 at 7:16 pm,
            CFS says:

            I just came across another Lithium company:
            Brisbane, Australia (ABN Newswire) – Orocobre Limited (ASX:ORE) (TSE:ORL) OROCF (Orocobre or the Company) wishes to advise on progress at the Olaroz Lithium Facility.

            – Production of 699 tonnes of lithium carbonate was achieved in January, an increase of 272 tonnes over December and above guidance.

            – The “de-bottlenecking” programme commenced mid last year was completed.

            – Cash operating cost breakeven achieved.

            – Production for the March Quarter is forecast to be approximately 2,400 tonnes.

            Production update

            Production at the Olaroz Lithium Facility continued to increase in January, with 699 tonnes of lithium carbonate produced, an increase of 272 tonnes on December. Included in the 699 tonnes produced in January is 80 tonnes recovered from within the purification circuit.
            I don’t own any shares, but it appears to be about breaking even with production costs. Potential exists if lithium ramps up in price.

          • On February 21, 2016 at 9:48 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            I’m a big fan of Orocobre. After Talison Lithium (the 4th company to make it into lithium production) got gobbled up by the big 3, then Orocobre was the 5th company to make it into production and it has been doing well lately. Western Lithium is the next company that is already in production of it’s organic clay, and has tested the pilot plant for it’s Lithium extraction and it will be the 6th company to go into Lithium production (right behind Orocobre). Then the 7th company to go into production will be Pure Energy Minerals. After that it’s a toss up but I like Galaxy Resources, Nemaska lithium, and Lithium X.

          • On February 21, 2016 at 10:31 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            LiTHIUM X has also acquired the Clayton Valley South Expansion, totalling approximately 9,540 acres (3,861 hectares). The property is strategically located between and contiguous with the Silver Peak lithium mine operated by Albemarle Corp. on the northern boundary, the Clayton Valley South project operated by Pure Energy Minerals Ltd to the east and the Neptune property owned by Nevada Sunrise Gold Corporation to the west.


          • On February 21, 2016 at 10:37 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Western Lithium Project Overview

            Western Lithium focuses on lithium carbonate for use in lithium-ion batteries and electric/hybrid vehicles and commercial organoclays (Hectatone) for oil and gas drilling applications.

            The New Western Lithium – Combined With Lithium Americas CORPORATE PRESENTATION:


          • On February 21, 2016 at 10:45 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Galaxy Resources Limited – Corporate Presentation
            January 2016


          • On February 22, 2016 at 12:36 am,
            Skeeta says:

            My small spec stake in ASX.ORE is still in the red to be honest,
            I’d be lieing if I told anyone anything different.

          • On February 21, 2016 at 10:03 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Mr. Giustra has a checkered career. He is the founder of Lithium X, which I mentioned below.

            Frank Giustra’s Lithium X Energy Corp. may serve Tesla Motors and help him approach its founder Elon Musk’s $13-billion net worth.
            MALCOLM PARRY 01.21.2016


          • On February 21, 2016 at 10:05 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Here’s where the questionable actions of Franky boy Giustra start getting shady:

            Did Clintons Arrange ‘Sweetheart Deal’ for Canadian Tycoon Frank Giustra?
            Submitted by Peter Flaherty on Tue, 12/08/2015 – 10:24


          • On February 21, 2016 at 10:08 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Furious B.C. magnate says he’s caught up in ‘vicious’ smear campaign against Clinton charities
            Brian Hutchinson | May 6, 2015 11:45 AM ET


  48. On February 21, 2016 at 4:45 pm,
    Dick Tracy says:

    Meet The Woman Funding The Efforts To Stop Trump: This only makes me like him more. DT

  49. On February 21, 2016 at 7:44 pm,
    CFS says:
  50. On February 21, 2016 at 8:23 pm,
    CFS says:

    Bye, Bye, Angie.


    Stupid wanton, wasteful destruction, but the sentiment of the people is clear.

  51. On February 21, 2016 at 8:29 pm,
    CFS says:

    Frankie, Baby, you don’t get it.


    Francoise Hollande thinks he can suspend right-wingers!
    Your country is collapsing under your socialist yoke.

  52. On February 21, 2016 at 8:51 pm,
    CFS says:

    The Greek Government tried to gently introduce a change to less cash being used by its populace, by allowing income tax deductions only if half of the after-tax income was spent using credit/debit cards.
    As I reported in this forum over a year ago, it is very common when one walks into a store to be asked if you will be paying by cash, and to be given a 10% discount for cash.
    (Clearly splitting the VAT tax with the customer, and not giving any VAT tax to the Government.)
    Why did the Government EVER think that allowing a deduction for credit/debit card use would ever work for income that was not reported in the first place, regardless of the availability of credit card terminals, versus the immediate benefit of a discount.

  53. On February 21, 2016 at 10:22 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    CFS – None of these comments are going where I tried to post them.

    Sorry they are all jumbled now…..the velvet hammer must have struck because the blog is all wonky now.

    Anyway, the articles and responses I posted were in reference to the Frank Giustra involvement with Sandspring resources, and reference to the Orocobre Lithium article. I’ve posted on Orocobre about a dozen times over the last year or two, and remain enthusiastic about their increasing Lithium production.


  54. On February 21, 2016 at 10:41 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Galaxy Resources Limited is a lithium-focused resources company, with assets spanning Australia, China, Canada and Argentina.

    In April 2014, Galaxy announced the divestment of its processing plant in Jiangsu Province, China – a deal which held an enterprise value of US$173.2 million.

    Galaxy is currently advancing plans to develop the Sal de Vida Lithium and Potash Brine Project (“Sal de Vida”) in Argentina, which is situated in the Lithium Triangle, a region where Chile, Argentina and Bolivia meet, and presently accounts for 60% of global lithium production. Sal de Vida is a proven high quality resource has excellent promise as a future low cost production facility.

    The Company also owns the Mt Cattlin Spodumene Mine near Ravensthorpe in Western Australia and the James Bay Lithium Pegmatite Project in Quebec, Canada.

    Once processed, lithium compounds are used in the manufacture of ceramics, glass, and electronics and an essential ingredient in producing battery materials such as cathode and electrolyte. It is also used in the manufacture of long life lithium-ion batteries used for consumer electronics, power tools, electric bikes as well as hybrid and electric vehicles. Anticipating the growing demand, Galaxy is positioning itself to become a major supplier of high quality lithium.

  55. On February 21, 2016 at 11:27 pm,
    CFS says:

    Thanks, Ex.

  56. On February 22, 2016 at 5:01 am,
    Marty says:

    Let’s see if we get a 4-8% retracement in the miners as I suspect this Monday am. Sold all my AXU last week at average of $.745. We shall see.

  57. On February 22, 2016 at 7:45 am,
    Matthew says:

    Just like the charts have been indicating, silver is now outperforming gold and the miners continue to outperform both metals. This is very bullish action.