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Gold, oil and the trends developing this year

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March 19, 2016

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Discussion
363 Comments
    Mar 19, 2016 19:04 AM

    Thanks guys,
    Appreciate your efforts to give us your weekend views as always.
    Cheers.

      Mar 19, 2016 19:26 AM

      Many thanks Skeeta.

        Mar 19, 2016 19:42 PM

        It was a good show Big Al and all of the speakers had interesting ideas to mull over.

    Mar 19, 2016 19:22 AM

    Well said as always Skeeta.
    Please note my new moniker guys – thought I needed a bit of self-promotion!

      Mar 19, 2016 19:40 PM

      Nice! Good to know Archdeaon. (Andrew).

      Can I still call you Rev? Or maybe Archie? 😉

        Mar 19, 2016 19:55 PM

        I think he’s missing a c.

          Mar 19, 2016 19:55 PM

          Si?

            Mar 19, 2016 19:14 PM

            Yeup. Here I thought he had some ancient Latin derivation, but you nailed it.

            Archdeacon. I get the self-promotion now. Congratulations Andrew!

            Now Archie sounds less endearing, because I didn’t realize it was based on a position change, so I won’t use it. Archdeacon it is……

            I gotta admit that Archdeaon sounded cool though.

            Mar 19, 2016 19:39 PM

            Who put the c in archdeacon?! I stand corrected. lol.

            Mar 19, 2016 19:09 PM

            Archdeacon with a C!

            Mar 19, 2016 19:03 PM

            You can change your moniker from Rev to whatever Andrew ? No drama.
            As long as you understand (as Im sure you will) that every time ‘The Ashes’ between your mob & mine is played, then I will more than likely only affectionately refer to you as a that ‘Pommie B@stard’ other than Rev or whatever 😉
            Cheers to you Rev/Andrew/or Arch however you spell it !

      Mar 19, 2016 19:37 PM

      Funny ANDY…………

        Mar 19, 2016 19:39 PM

        Arch…..de triumph……..Next Arch Bishop of Canterbury

          Mar 19, 2016 19:40 PM

          Next you will be collecting taxes for the QUEEN………. 🙂

    Mar 19, 2016 19:56 AM

    Canadians had a voice to vote for a right wing conservative, a centrist and a socialist party and chose the centrist party. Notable to the discussion with the collapse in oil markets, conservative fortunes disappeared federally and an unabashedly socialist provincial party won the provincial election in Alberta, after fourth years of rule in that province. The socialist NDP, which had a strong following in Eastern Canada, lost their lead when it was observed that the Liberals could merely tear a page out of the NDP platform. The difference in Canada us that you have three major political parties, but what the NDP could not foresee is the collapse of polarized politics through centrism. In the US, politics is deeply mired in polarization.

    Trudeau, in order to make the Liberal platform a success will have to adopt some of the conservative strategies, such as persuing national pipelines, but what marks Trudeau above all, is that he succeeded against a conservative government deeply committed to polarization, and whose leader was a closet western separatist. The socialist party lost on their part, because they were depending on the same polarized politics.

      Mar 19, 2016 19:08 AM

      FranSix, your post on Golden Band Resources from another thread was very interesting. I checked out some of your research and it was a partial reminder of the Allied Nevada chapter 11. ANV lied to shareholders and filed misleading financial reports and committed Sarbanes Oxley violations. Regulators haven’t batted an eye. I noticed there has been about a million shares traded this month. In the Allied Nevada case, there was a mine worker that came forward and enlightened shareholders to their misdeeds. ANV shareholders ended up with warrants that were split on a 10-1 basis before they went private. They were able to cramdown over a billion in creative accounting and got bonuses to boot.

      WELCOME TO THE GOLDEN BAND RESOURCES HUB ON AGORACOM
      Saskatchewan’s SECRET Gold Mining Development.

      Conclusions –

      Golden Band Resources is no longer able to keep secrets. they are unable to control perceptions by lying to the public. The balance sheet has been debugged from all its loopholes, and the source and amount of capital raise is exposed.

      For the asset-based financing with Sprott, there are certain assumptions that must be made for the entire financing to be revealed. If you assume that the depreciation and depletion of ore from the EP Mine is $100/oz., then you may be mistaken in the number of ounces produced for the asset based capital raise. If you believe it’s $200/oz., you may be overestimating the depreciation cost. continued…http://agoracom.com/ir/GoldenBand

        Mar 19, 2016 19:12 AM

        It’s very possible that the bankruptcy was meant as a cover for a going private transaction which would have been illegal under US law. The bankruptcy of Colossus minerals looks similar. Now, I don’t know whether Colossus was taken private in the framework of a bankruptcy proceeding.

        GBN.V can go into a going private transaction, and my hunch is that they’re positioned to do so, but if the liabilities are actually revenue deferred, then the company cannot defraud about the financial condition of the company. It really depends very much on the gold price, after all.

        It’s difficult to determine exactly what the company intends, simply because there isn’t enough available information at all. The satellite photos are helpful in this regard. My guess is that if you get squeezed out as a shareholder, then they’ll pay out in cash. The other option is to accumulate as many shares as you can to be in the top 50 shareholders.

        Are they bankrupt? In a word, no. They have financing in place for growth which both ANV and Colossus failed to do.

          Mar 19, 2016 19:56 PM

          It’s difficult to determine exactly what the company intends, simply because there isn’t enough available information at all.

          Accumulate the majority of the shares on the cheap, then do a reverse split?

          If they wan’t it kept hush..hush, act like they are trying to find a solution through the advisor. Allied used Scotiabank as an advisor to find a partner for their mill expansion. Scotiabank analyst Trevor Turnbull put a 5 cent price target on Allied’s back. Scotiabank just happened to be the counterparty to a failed swap.

          Thanks to your research, Golden Band has red flags all over it, perfect for spectulation. Hopefully a former employee goes public with the goods. Feb 04, 2016 GBN announced hiring a financial advisor. If the intent is to go private, buy out remaining holders with creative accounting? With a share price of 0.005, they could easily do a 10 – 1, 100 – 1 reverse split, if they want to remain public and avoid the hassle Allied went through.

          Allied’s intent was to go public after their approval. The noteholders got greedy.

          Allied aka Hycroft Mining, already had an OTC ticker HYCT and a Yahoo message board set up within a very short period of time after the judge approved the POR.

          Current holders of the majority of the GBN shares would be nice to know. ANV wasn’t expecting shareholders to appeal the chapter 11 after they went private. Now they have to wait until that is resolved… see alliednevadafraud.com

            Mar 19, 2016 19:59 PM

            GBN.V doesn’t answer who the top shareholders are when asked. All of the insider information is years old without being updated, and recent additions have also been deleted.

            One thing is for certain. If Sprott and Netolitzky are getting behind a swindle, then they’ll be risking their own projects in the gold space because both are renowned. My guess is that Netolitzky has been buying shares almost daily for over a year. The people formerly on the insiders list are still there, holding millions of shares. The larger shareholders are all from former companies in The La Ronge Gold Belt that were active prior to the downturn in 1998.

            Current largest shareholders are: Netolitzky – known to own 10% of the float, more if he accumulated shares during the no-bid period, up to 30%, Sprott – known to hold 8%, but is a participant in the shares through at least 9 separate accounts, so this number is not known, Klaus Lenert Thiel, the former CEO of Uranerz – at least 3% of the float, and various former directors, all owning up to 1% of the float.

            The latest crop of executives, all staffers from Lincoln Mining, have options for a million shares.

            GBN.V announced a reverse split over a year ago, but never carried it out. The insiders participated in short sales of company shares and non-dispositive short sales of shares to themselves. All of this was meticulously planned and carried out and impeccably timed.

            They have no need of financial advice of any kind, because they can rely on Sprott, and TD and RBC as third party facilitators as they had setting up Sprott PHYS and The Mint ETR. The gold for these ETFs comes from the EP Mine ‘pay streak’ and the Roy Lloyd mine ore stockpile which they built over four years, and began depleting in 2014, even though they claimed they were shut down. Mining might have stopped but they continued to process the available ores.

        Mar 19, 2016 19:30 AM

        Thank you Market!

          Mar 19, 2016 19:41 AM

          How do I know that they have financing in place and they aren’t bankrupt? From the simple fact that if they could not complete the asset-based financing, they would not be into the revenue-based financing. Both of these tranches are now complete, and took five years of effort. (Complete as of the end of September, I reckon)

          The auspicious date in all this is April 1st, five years since commercial production was declared.

            Mar 19, 2016 19:40 AM

            To add: IF they are listing deferred revenue under liabilities, they would have paid the cost of operations through the asset-based financing. THIS is the way it works.

      Mar 19, 2016 19:29 AM

      Look for more viable political parties in the U.S., Fran. Possibly sooner rather than later

    CFS
    Mar 19, 2016 19:26 AM

    You need to listen to this SilverDoctors podcast:
    https://youtu.be/Ru-55s6haf8

    Painting the tape.

      Mar 19, 2016 19:58 AM

      thanks for the post……….good to hear Turd…..

      Mar 19, 2016 19:29 PM

      CFS – Thanks for the Turd Ferguson interview.

    CFS
    Mar 19, 2016 19:33 AM

    The price of gold and silver will not sky-rocket unless and until the DOMEX runs out of physical.
    I know there is more leverage in stocks, and there is more convenience in buying GLD and SLV, but it is buying the physical metal itself that will initiate the take-off.

    CFS
    Mar 19, 2016 19:34 AM

    I meant COMEX not Domex, of course. above.

      Mar 19, 2016 19:12 AM

      I kind of like the new DOMEX……

        Mar 19, 2016 19:32 PM

        How about DOOMEX…..

          Mar 19, 2016 19:52 PM

          OR DOOM EX……………….what a downer…………… 🙂

          Mar 19, 2016 19:17 PM

          DOOM EX………sounds like a laxative

            Mar 19, 2016 19:45 PM

            “Constipated from nervous trading in the commodity space. All you all bunched up?”

            “Flush those negative interest rates cares away with all organic DOOM EX.”

            (Brought to you by the makers of Precious Metals Depends).

            (Recommended spokesperson Dr. Marc Faber of the Doom, Gloom, Boom report)

            Mar 19, 2016 19:05 PM

            good one………….EX ER……….

            Mar 19, 2016 19:06 PM

            EX ER……..tonic for lasting relief…………

            Mar 19, 2016 19:41 PM

            😉

      Mar 19, 2016 19:33 PM

      Good article on Gold as the bankers and wealthy money, and Silver as the people’s money.

    CFS
    Mar 19, 2016 19:52 AM

    The silver doctors MP3 explains the action in gold and silver. Wake up you chartists:

    http://content.blubrry.com/silverdoctors/The_Whole_System_Can_Blow_BIG_Moves.mp3

      Mar 19, 2016 19:02 AM

      Maybe bad chartists need to wake up because the potential in the metals is clear to me even if I end up wrong about this:

      On March 18, 2016 at 9:47 pm,
      Matthew says:

      The dollar hasn’t looked this risky in years. Like I said the other day, it looks similar to gold before it collapsed in 2013.

      http://schrts.co/r5XJAP

    Mar 19, 2016 19:44 AM

    In reference to Mr. Lundin’s comments, for the hoi polloi, gold prices need merely reflect their anticipation rather than an exaggerated price target which followers of the trends in gold prices seem to attach to the gold market. I would say that price is probably $1300 US/oz.

    CFS
    Mar 19, 2016 19:51 AM

    The problem with Jeff Diest, while an intelligent establishment insider and thus knowledgeable in generalities, he fails to have a depth of knowledge in latest poles and statistics.

      Mar 19, 2016 19:36 AM

      He’s intelligent, yes, but an establishment insider? He’s President of the Mises Institute; you can’s get less establishment than that.

        Mar 19, 2016 19:33 AM

        Thank you Matthew. Jeff is definitely not establishment, by my definition!

        CFS
        Mar 19, 2016 19:39 AM

        Libertarians can still spout the general statements of the establishment except for specific political ideological differences.

          Mar 19, 2016 19:07 AM

          Sure they can, CFS. My comment was related to Jeff specifically.

            CFS
            Mar 19, 2016 19:20 AM

            So was mine, Big Al.

            I have been tracking various opinion poles on Clinton, Trump and Cruz; actually over 3 dozen of them in the last month.
            They have to be analyzed very carefully because some are clearly designed to be push-poles, not for the purposes of extracting information. However, both Clinton and Trump have serious negatives among voters from their own parties. This is strange and different from any other election I have seen in the past.
            Trumps winning has been dominated by Democrats voting for him.
            Rubio (In my opinion a nice guy but immature of limited experience) and Kasich (n my opinion, an incompetent party hack who has bankrupted Ohio) have acted as spoilers.
            All but about 3 poles have indicated (and clearly this may change in the future, but I’m talking about existing poles), all but about 3 poles have indicated that Cruz would beat Trump in a one-on-one race.
            Further the majority of poles have shown Trump would not beat Clinton or Sanders and that Cruz would beat Clinton or Sanders. Although that conclusion is barely defined within the margins of error. I would also remind everyone that it is yet very early in the election process……a lot can happen.

            Mar 19, 2016 19:34 AM

            And, a lot will happen.My prediction, at this time, is that Clinton will win the marbles.

            Mar 19, 2016 19:47 AM

            That is a given Al. My question is what do you think will become of Trump and the republican nomination?

            Mar 19, 2016 19:18 PM

            I don’t think that the party will unify behind him. What do you think??

            Mar 19, 2016 19:56 AM

            I said when Trump entered the race that his role was to get Hillary in. People sure fall hard for a little acting.

            Mar 19, 2016 19:16 PM

            Interesting that I had a similar thought.

            Mar 19, 2016 19:33 PM

            AL

            I bet you a burger and fries that the Clintonite will win.

            Mar 20, 2016 20:07 PM

            I would agre with you Beentnail.

            Mar 20, 2016 20:21 AM

            Al, I am not a political genus and actually only voted for a presidential winner once in my lifetime (45 years of voting). I do believe that the elections are rigged, not necessarily corrupt but designed so that the elite can have whom ever they want elected.

            Mar 20, 2016 20:39 AM

            I would probably agree Bobby’

      Mar 19, 2016 19:42 AM

      Rather ironic that you would all be talking about “establishment insiders” (AKA – shills) when I believe it was you who insisted that I be removed from the site for asking a guest to their face if they are a shill. At least I am man enough to do it to their face. And yet, I am the one who was removed. How pathetic.

        Mar 19, 2016 19:40 AM

        Not removed anymore.

          Mar 19, 2016 19:15 PM

          Glad to see BENTNAIL BACK…………. BEST…..

            Mar 19, 2016 19:28 PM

            FRANK

            Thanks. Great to be back.

    Mar 19, 2016 19:18 AM

    Sugar ($SGG) has made a break-out.

      Mar 19, 2016 19:57 PM

      So did coffee. The soft commodities are on the move. The dollar weakness is causing some mild inflation.

        Mar 19, 2016 19:20 PM

        I think commodity traders are shifting back out of metals as they sense a top is in. We see this kind of movement all the time but its not obvious unless you track a lot of the charts each day. The traders are like a flock of birds moving in unison from one resource to the next as they rise and fall on their own cycles.

          Mar 19, 2016 19:49 PM

          Money movement…. It is like a flock of birds…..or a school of fish…..

            Mar 19, 2016 19:57 PM

            Exactly Shad. You ever notice it? It becomes almost predictable if you start to get a sense of when something is topping or hitting a tradeable low. Maybe its all machine induced though because the changes are so fast I can’t keep up and catch the movements a lot of the time. Like a switch goes off somewhere and then everyone is piling into a trade that comes out of nowhere.

            Mar 19, 2016 19:47 PM

            Yes, many of the trading algorithms are keyed off certain triggers, so money leaves one sector and shows up in another. (kinda like the game wack-a-mole).

            These machine trading correlations do get updates though, so I look for trends, and do my best to anticipate where the flock or school may show up next to feed.

            Mar 19, 2016 19:56 PM

            Ha! Yeah, whack-a-mole is a much better simile in this case. Maybe what we need to get is better software so it can track the changes in commodity behavior as each week goes by. I just do it in my head for the most part but there is often a lag time before I catch on that something important is changing.

    Mar 19, 2016 19:44 AM

    Gonna have to listen later. Taking Stinky Easter egg hunting.

      Mar 19, 2016 19:50 PM

      Are you referring to diaper changes?

        Mar 19, 2016 19:54 PM

        If so, stay away from the brown eggs……

          Mar 19, 2016 19:32 PM

          Ha ha ha !

    b
    Mar 19, 2016 19:38 AM

    I keep seeing “baby bull” what is that?
    a short squeeze? “x” moving up a little bit? a rally?

      Mar 19, 2016 19:19 PM

      Gary’s term. Seems it got picked up by a few other guys who read his site.

      He is wrong about it though and my certainty on that score is growing daily. We are not seeing the resumption of a bull market at all, just a spike up that has not even reached the top of the trading channel.

      If you examine GLDX, GDX, GDXJ or the HUI you can see that not one of those has yet broken out on a monthly chart yet. All of them are close however but gold has stalled out short of a breakout and a reversal should be in the cards fairly soon.

      What we have here instead is a topping pattern in gold at a time when mining stocks are still rising. I don’t see a lot of strength there right now and gold futures volumes have been declining all of March already.

      We could expect a retest of the highs seen earlier in the month (at most) and then a protracted decline as gold falls back once more. I know that’s not going to be welcome news for metals fans who have been so certain a new bull market was just born but we need to stick to the facts while ignoring conjecture and wild-eyed speculation such as that presented by Gary.

      Judging gold, silver and the miners on long term charts is now our best evidence that this current run is just another false start and it is not the beginning of a bull market at all.

      Unless and until we see breakouts on the monthly level charts we had best contain our excitement and take care not to be too heavily invested in a thesis (like the baby bull nonsense) that looks less and less likely to play out satisfactorily.

      My advice is to use caution in giving too much credence to those writers and analysts who have been relentlessly bullish no matter what gold does as most of them seem to have little valuable perspective or insights at times like this.

      I am now looking for a long choppy decline back to the bottom seen in December of 2015 and eventually to new lower lows possible by year end. It won’t be easy to play and it is sure to leave the bugs extremely frustrated as most will end up holding losing positions (again).

        Mar 19, 2016 19:48 PM

        I agree with that, Farmer i C.
        But I still believe a washout will happen( just like everything does ) before the bear is over. I think and hope the bear is over in the summer.

          Mar 19, 2016 19:14 PM

          I wish that was going to be the case Chartster. But when you look at the rise and fall on a cyclic basis odds are stacked against that happening. The reason is that should this rally fail short of the upper channel that gold is almost certain to make a full retrace back to the lows again. And given that this would still be a bear market then a lower-low is inevitable meaning we can’t see a new rise on a time basis into a bull market until the end of the year at the earliest given we are already in late March now. We are almost four months into this current rise. A washout would take months and come at the end of the decline at least another four months in the future. Its why I said that gold is done for 2016 if we don’t break out on this cycle as the next low is so far off in the future. Odds are then good we close the year below 2015’s close so we should all feel pretty miserable about metals by next New Year.

            LPG
            Mar 19, 2016 19:19 PM

            Hello Bird,

            Hope all’s well.

            I find your views on gold interesting – with lower lows potentially ahead in the next few months/quarters. Incidentally, Martin Armstrong feels the same as you: both from a price level and timing perspective. He had an interesting c. 45mn long interview this week on RealvisionTV.com. Suggest anyone to watch it.
            [Before anyone checks, I have to add that RealvisionTV is subscription-based. But imho, it’s money extremely well spent for one’s financial education – as opposed to listening/reading some of the non-sense that’s around].

            So on the topic of gold, I’ve been on the record here on KER saying that for me, the low is in given that we made higher highs (right translated move on the charts). And given my way to look at technicals, this is what I HAVE to recognize.

            However, I’ve said to Richard/Doc that it is VERY possible that gold revisit the lows, and even, potentially move to marginal lower lows over the next few months: on one of the previous upcycles – can’t remember which one – this is what gold did: it moved up (–> everybody thought the low was in) but THEN made its low (“THE LOW”) 1 or 1.5yrs after that previous low was elected.
            From a chart perspective, despite the higher high after the December low, it is NOT impossible for the chart to turn down big time. I’ve been looking for examples of that (coz I like to always remain open to the possibility that my views can be proven wrong) AND I’ve seen a few charts where the price action has been the one exhibited from gold since Dec 2015 YET a new marginal low is made a few months/quarters later. The caveat are that the charts I’ve seen are charts of STOCKS /EQUITIES and not commodities. I’ll stop here. Just food for thought.

            What I’ve indicated to Richard, and what is more important for me in terms of capital appreciation potential, is that under that former historical scenario I mentioned, the stocks, AS A WHOLE, didn’t make lower lows despite gold making its final low after 1-1.5yrs.
            So 2 points to make on the stocks here:
            1) For those who’ve read me for some time (and I feel sorry for what you had have to read from me 🙂 ), they will remember that the fact that stocks have bottomed doesn’t really matter TO ME as I don’t invest in the GDX/GDXJ (as some of the newsletter writers do/recommend to do). Reason being that GDX/GDXJ always underperform good names. Always.
            That’s why I value, from a conceptual/cerebral/mental/intellectual standpoint people such as Avi Gilburt who has a dedicated service within the various trading rooms of his site who SPECIFICALLY tries to pick up what he (and his team of analysts) think are the best names within GDX/GDXJ and try to avoid certain names which have no good prospect at all. The goal here being to outperform GDX/GDXJ.
            –> To me, there’s much more money to make in stock picking when one does proper homework, so again, I don’t focus on GDX/GDXJ.

            Also, one has to keep in mind, as Chris Temple rightfully pointed out (a few months ago now), that the best PM stocks ALREADY bottomed in 2013. So when I read or hear once in a while people who claim “i’ve called the bottom in the PM stocks”… I just can’t help “smiling”.
            To illustrate my point… I’ll give 1 simple example: Doc/Richard brought Claude Resources to KER listeners attention at the end of 2014. The stock has been a c. 5 baggers from back then till its recent top. On the long side, betting on great specific stories is where the SERIOUS money is made (I’ve been very far from making a 5 bagger on this one but I remember reading someone on the site making a 4 bagger, can’t recall who it was –> kuddos to that person).
            So whenever I hear/read someone with: “I’ve called the lows on GDX/GDXJ recently”….I’m like “BIG DEAL….. Zzzzzzzzz….”
            Plenty of stocks have doubled (and more) on this run last run, vastly outperforming GDX/GDXJ. So GDX/GDXJ is just Zzzzzzz for me…. Anyway… sure everyone gets the picture.

            2) What is important is that IF the ETFs (as per GDX/GDXJ) have made a bottom… THEN from a SECTOR SENTIMENT standpoint, this DOES matter, imho.
            It does matter as it is likely to attract a pool of fresh capital to the sector.
            And just by looking at (1) discussions I regularly have with a few fin. institutions AND hedge funds owners/managers that I am acquainted with and (2) new position openings for commodities analysts roles (that’s broad, it’s “commodities”, it’s not PM specific typically…but it gives a good idea) within fin. institutions or hedge funds (anybody interested, just take a look at the specialized financial press, you’ll get the drift quickly)… I get the feeling that interest from both big AND hot money has DEFINITELY picked-up on the PM space (PM space specifically, but Nat. Resources/Commodities in general).

            *****

            Going back to my point on gold
            I’m gonna stick to the view that the low is in for gold (coz again, my view is reflective of the way I look at technicals), but (as always) I am open to the idea that I might be proven wrong on that one. And that’s ok for me if I am wrong (3 weeks ago, I expect a move down to 1150-1170 for gold, and it didn’t happen –> again, I’m ok with being wrong).
            I still have orders on long-term Call options on gold that I have not cancelled. So if gold moves to lower lows in the next few months/quarters, I’ll be quite happy to see these orders probably filled.

            Re: the stocks, imho, a good strategy is to keep a core on the best names in one’s portfolio, and add on pullbacks. Add on pullbacks… add on pullbacks. Then, trim when the chart is REALLY stretched or when a res level is too tough to break. Rince, repeat.

            For those who don’t have the technical acumen (or intellectual appetite) to use technical analysis, it’s ok: I believe that sticking to your best stocks, and adding on pullbacks while keeping a core should treat you well over the next 2-3 years. But if you invest on funda(funDER)mentals and not technicals… just always make sure that the reason why you invested in a name is still valid over time.
            But keep in mind the whole sector has been on fire lately, and some/company names definitely don’t deserve to trade at the level where they trade (as Doug Casey says: “when the wind blows hard, even turkeys can fly”)… so bad news will happen soon for some of them (and that will mean share price feeling the reflection that “one can defy gravity… but not for long”).

            Stay selective on the names. Do your homework. Manage risk on your positions. With time, everything is likely to take care of itself if you apply this discipline.

            GL to all investing/trading.

            LPG

            Mar 20, 2016 20:02 AM

            Thanks for the input LPG. There are innumerable scenarios to sift through as you are suggesting. I am trying to keep my life as simple as possible by discarding just about all the current popular gold themes as they are rarely tradeable.

            I can tell you my plan though. Some miners are still rising and there is upside ahead until the major indexes reach resistance on the monthly chart. I will sell off my remaining silver miners this coming week if we have topped there. (On a case by case basis of course because a single stock cannot mirror the index which is just my guide).

            Depending on how the charts play out I will enter short positions in gold, silver and miners once we have retested the highs earlier this month. Its my belief we will get another run at 1287(?) gold for example before the real decline begins and that will allow me to position at what I think is a point near the absolute top of this range.

            It could go higher of course so I am playing it by ear. What I am not doing is opening any new long trades in any metals or miners as most, including the good ones, should fall in sympathy with one another. The risk/reward of trying to pick the odd winner in the batch that rises despite a sector decline is really not worth the effort.

            So now it is a waiting game as this top completes its formation. It looks like it will be a grind so two weeks is not an unlikely amount of time to expect the pattern to work itself out. The last few days of March and the first of April will tell the tale.

            I am fairly confident in my belief that this bull market is not a new bull at all and that the money will again be made on the short side with a time frame spanning months and into the end of the year.

            Have a great day!

            Mar 20, 2016 20:42 AM

            Incidentally LPG, I have had tremendous success in accurately timing reversals in gold and silver over the past few years on this site. As always though we are only as good as our last trade and I try to keep that in mind to keep myself humble as these markets can confound the best of analysts.

            While I am expressing confidence in my current projection I will also admit it is based only on my best observations and in fact not one of us knows what tomorrow will bring.

            So it is still possible for me to be wrong in spite of producing what I believe is a very good record in calling the metals market these past four years on this site. Should I be correct one more time though on this contrary bet in defiance of the gold experts I will put a feather in my cap and come back as Jeddi Birdman (because I will have earned the title!!!)

            Just a little morning humour! 🙂

            Mar 20, 2016 20:24 AM

            Good thoughts LPG and Farmer IC,

            LPG I agree with you on picking the individual stocks that will greatly outperform the indexes on Silver and Gold Stocks. The difference in earnings (or losses) can be startling with individual stocks, yet the risk is more than betting on a basket of stocks. However, using fundamental analysis to identify a good company, and then technical analysis to time entry and exit points can greatly reduce the risk in a single stock.

            As for the mining ETFs, I like trading the leveraged ETFs for macro directional trades where I just want to capture a move without worrying about a specific companies trading and just get the general direction correct, with a little oomph on it.

            This idea seems to agree with your point 2:

            “2) What is important is that IF the ETFs (as per GDX/GDXJ) have made a bottom… THEN from a SECTOR SENTIMENT standpoint, this DOES matter, imho.
            It does matter as it is likely to attract a pool of fresh capital to the sector.”

            LPG, I concur that a shift in the mining indexes is what will get institutional investors interested in the space again, and what will get the media attention. Very few news stories are going to come out when a quality stock hits new highs, but when GDX, or GDXJ, or the HUI makes a new high, then it does get coverage and generates focus on the sector.

            As for fading into and out of positions to build a core position with a good cost basis, I completely agree and use the same strategy you mentioned:

            “Re: the stocks, imho, a good strategy is to keep a core on the best names in one’s portfolio, and add on pullbacks. Add on pullbacks… add on pullbacks. Then, trim when the chart is REALLY stretched or when a res level is too tough to break. Rince, repeat.”

            Both LPG and Farmer in Canada – I agree that a pullback in the metals to lower lows is still not out of the real of possibilities for me until Gold puts in some meaningful closes above $1308 and $1321-$1322 (the drop level in 2013 that started the 3 year consolidation in the first place). Again, as we’ve mentioned for a long time, a testing of the lows or a new low in the metals, doesn’t mean that will be the case for the mining stocks, as they are being evaluated with different metrics now.

            Mar 20, 2016 20:13 AM

            Thanks Ex.

            Mar 20, 2016 20:21 PM

            Super Force Precious Metals Video Analysis on (GDX) and (GDXJ)
            Morris Hubbartt – Mar 18, 2016

            http://www.superforcesignals.com/video/2016mar17gdx/2016mar17gdx.html

            Mar 20, 2016 20:08 PM

            Thanks x

            Is there a sarcasm emoticon yet?

            Mar 20, 2016 20:20 PM

            Ha. Not sure if there is yet or not. We’d need it a lot on this site though.

            LPG
            Mar 20, 2016 20:25 PM

            Interesting additional output/comments Bird.
            Take Good Care,
            LPG

          Mar 19, 2016 19:21 PM

          The good news is that you will get a second chance to play the gold bounce next year if you happened to miss the action this time around.

        b
        Mar 19, 2016 19:01 PM

        march 19, 5.19pm post
        excellent post Farmer, hmmmm, only variation from doc is he sees/saw a turnaround 2016, but as he says, we know more in a week or two.

        Now, a consideration, some miners are actually making money at this level,they might be as good or better to invest in than some equities, meaning, maybe some miners increase even if the price of PM drops., especially as they have been hammered to an inch of their existence.

        Course, maybe Im thinkin 2 much.

          Mar 20, 2016 20:46 AM

          Thanks bb. I am following my own charting here and doing my best to look at things with fresh eyes each day. I don’t see that turnaround coming for 2016 that Doc has mentioned but I might be convinced if he were to explain how he arrives at that conclusion. I am still in the camp that expects gold to fall for en extended period of time once this current cycle turns back down and believe we should be prepared to anticipate gold at sub 1000. I am tracking on a cyclic basis and keeping a close eye on the longer term charts now. Just a casual look at the monthly strongly suggests more downside is ahead. Where we were in December is an improbable place to make a final bottom low because the projection is for numbers much closer to 800 than even the 1000 that the bugs assure us can never happen. They are in for a rude awakening. No special skill is needed to divine that 1050 was only an interim low on a very long chart that still seeks a deeper retrace to complete its cycle. Choosing a top where we are now is not dangerous in any case. The risk is low to just stay on the sidelines until a directional play becomes obvious again. At this time we appear to be in a topping pattern that is frustrating for bulls and bears alike. Probabilities favour a decline so I would not be doing any fresh buying as upside is limited. If that decline is as technically certain as I think it will be then this “baby bull” is a dead bull and we shall resume our trajectory back into a bear market much to the dismay of every gold bug who has been sold on the idea this is the really big one. In other words, I suspect that what Doc was seeing has already happened and cannot be repeated as we should now ratchet our way back down to the lower bound of the long term bear channel. We will know soon enough though. One way or another this needs a resolution within the next two weeks so hanging on patiently is my advice until the trend either reasserts itself upwards or a we get that technical failure I anticipate before months end.

            Mar 20, 2016 20:05 PM

            I agree that this gold rally is probably not “the really big one and have put my money where my mouth is.

            Mar 20, 2016 20:14 PM

            No kidding? That comes as a surprise since the bullishness is overwhelming lately if the number and type of comments and articles on this site is an indication. So you agree with what I am saying then?

            Good for you Al. The perpetual gold bulls that reside here and elsewhere are some of the stupidest people I have ever come across. Glad to hear you are not one of them.

      Mar 20, 2016 20:53 AM

      Gold Stocks’ Tiny Baby Bull
      Adam Hamilton – Zeal Intelligence – March 18,2016

      http://www.mining.com/web/gold-stocks-tiny-baby-bull/

    b
    Mar 19, 2016 19:54 AM

    This voting 51-49 happening repeatedly, I posted a while back the fellow from nasa testifying to the ohio state legislature? I think, that he developed the program that determines elections. He said they make them close at…….51-49 as they want.

    I really think its funny people still speak , (even after people that rig them tell everyone the elections are rigged) as if there is actually an election.
    How long does it take to “sink in” to people?

    The U.S. president has already been determined, the people just get to watch the “reality show” to see who they decided upon.

    Voting only tells tptb how many people still support their system.
    As long as a high enough % of people vote everything is hunky dory.

    Mar 19, 2016 19:11 AM

    Jeff Deist is clearly a well educated articulate guy but like many of his ilk he has the ability to see the problems but when it comes down to making decisions he lacks common sense. A match up between Hillary and Trump would be a total failure for The Democratic party. Democrat’s aren’t crossing over in The Republican primaries to vote for Trump because they believe that he would be an easy win for The Democrats in a Presidential election. People are just fed up with all the nonsense that has been happening in US politics for many years and want real change not business as usual. Without getting into specifics which we all know anyway that is the nub of the problem. DT

      Mar 19, 2016 19:19 AM

      I agree with your statement “fed up with all the nonsense”

      Mar 19, 2016 19:57 AM

      I believe Donald Trump is showing the US, what happens when someone who is NOT controlled by politics, cannot be bought, and frankly, is “just an American”. Just what happens. Democrats hate him, Republicans can’t control him, and the government wants to destroy him. So, if no party backs him, most likely, he’s a threat to their agendas. Which in turn means he’s a threat to their lies, corruption and deseptions. Which means he is exactly what America needs right now.
      People are always saying, ” we need to get rid of every career politician, and get them out of office.” ..Well…we might as well start at the top!

      If no party likes you, your doing it right!

        Mar 19, 2016 19:07 AM

        I find it very interesting that, in the MSM, the photos of both Trump and Sanders show facial images with “funny” or “odd” expressions. Hillary Clinton is almost ALWAYS shown with a calm, dignified expression.

        Humans visually connect to VERY subtle facial expressions; people attach great meaning to the person’s underlying personality traits based on their face (ancient survival mechanism, probably)

        Mar 19, 2016 19:26 AM

        Trump: Narcissism is a personality disorder which is dangerous in and of itself if one intends to act in the best interest of the people. Being narcissistic may block one from being an effective leader due to the inability to consider anyone but oneself in any agenda pursued, whether claimed to be in the public interest or not.

          Mar 19, 2016 19:37 AM

          He’s just a reflection of the confused, unprincipled masses and their wishes — just like Obama.

            CFS
            Mar 19, 2016 19:01 PM

            Obama is not a reflection of the masses, Matthew, but more an American-hating Marxist.

            Mar 19, 2016 19:55 PM

            CFS, the masses went apeshit for him just as they are now for Trump. Most Americans, including those on the so-called right, are too stupid to know that they are just fine with plenty of Marxist ideas. Obama is FAR from the first one to embrace them but half of the masses want them delivered by a neoCON.

          Mar 19, 2016 19:22 AM

          Great comment, David.

        Mar 19, 2016 19:27 AM

        Great point, Chartster.

        CFS
        Mar 19, 2016 19:46 AM

        I disagree to some extent, Chartster. I believe it shows that many voters are low-information voters, who vote along lines of name recognition and showmanship as opposed to policy planks. It demonstrates how antiquated and obsolete the election process is in the age of computers.
        I have longe advocated that voting should be correlated proportionately with the amount of tax paid by each voter as a way of achieving fiscal responsibility. An idea that could never be accepted by corrupt politicians; each competing with ways to buy votes by using the public purse to give incentives for voters to vote for them (the politicians)
        The Democrat politicians want open borders because more than 60% of low income immigrants from Mexico and Central America are shown to vote democrat. The Republicans are told by their lobbyists that they should vote in favor of cheap labor. So we have open borders; never mind that it will collapse the welfare system, if not the whole economy.
        Meanwhile all politicians, regardless of their political stripe, will not balance the budget; they continue to drive the economy into oblivion by a policy that can do nothing but destroy the country as we know it.
        They do, however, have enough sense to buy over a billion dum-dum bullets to ensure they can maintain power when the voting dummies finally revolt.

          Mar 19, 2016 19:51 AM

          but, does the Vote of an American really matter or count? I just think back to the gore/bush fiasco.

            Mar 19, 2016 19:44 PM

            you have to be a hanging chad…………or is that shad………

            Mar 20, 2016 20:45 AM

            watch in now……I’ve been known to hang…… 🙂

        Mar 19, 2016 19:51 PM

        Chartster, just want to make sure that your gold between 500-600 is no longer on the table, right?

          Mar 19, 2016 19:19 PM

          Good question Dragon……….

          Mar 19, 2016 19:31 PM

          On the table, mid 500s

            GH
            Mar 19, 2016 19:40 PM

            I give that about the same odds as Trump being a good president!

            Mar 19, 2016 19:18 PM

            Zero for each!

            Mar 19, 2016 19:54 PM

            You guys are funny, LOL.

            Mar 20, 2016 20:37 AM

            So I can safely assume you are either short or on sideline.

            Mar 20, 2016 20:31 AM

            It is funny how folks are sure of, what they do not know..

            Mar 20, 2016 20:47 AM

            Yes Chartster, it is. You have been sure of an imminent fall for about two years. You can’t really be a chartster if that is what the gold chart is telling you right now.

            Mar 20, 2016 20:45 PM

            And you? Who thought the bottom was in the last two years..? C’mon..

            Mar 20, 2016 20:14 PM

            You got my vote Chartster. Mr cherry-picker, rear-view-mirror, after-the-fact investor who quotes himself daily always gets the great score but NEVER makes an actual call anyone can hold him too.

            You know…in real time.

            He is a fraud. But Al wants him on the show.

            I could not stop laughing. Almost pissed myself actually. Yes, bring that guy on.

            Should be a laugh a minute.

            Mar 20, 2016 20:15 PM

            I nailed each of the major bottoms of the last few years. So what if they didn’t turn out to be THE low. Buy weakness sell strength, remember? I have not seen a comment from you in which you recognize a low or a high.

            http://schrts.co/NIXkTC

            If you haven’t made a killing this year, something is wrong with your approach.

            C’mon is right.

            Mar 20, 2016 20:18 PM

            Oh look, it’s our resident sociopath Birdman “the pretender” Farmer from Canada.

            http://schrts.co/NMLZxf

            Mar 20, 2016 20:47 PM

            You “nailed” each of the bottoms all right. Too fu**ing funny Mr Stopped-clock.

            That was only because you called every single rise and fall (without exception) as a favourable time to buy more gold and gold stocks. No finesse at all. You remind me of a juvenile boxer in training.

            The kind of guy who goes into the ring, closes his eyes and then tries to overpower his adversary by the number of blows he lands. Like a cat fight between two angry gals who swing wildly and never make contact.

            One day you might learn its quality that matters…..not the quantity of posts with blue forks and other flaccid, meaningless charts. Most of what you put up is freaking useless but a few idiot followers of yours seem aptly impressed.

            And so we have the legend of the juvenile boxer punching the air.

            All volume but no skill.

            Mar 20, 2016 20:45 PM

            Wrong about everything as usual, ya little commie chicken man.

      Mar 19, 2016 19:08 AM

      People are just fed up with all the nonsense that has been happening in US politics for many years and want real change not business as usual.

      Perhaps. Some for sure. But the majority are still asleep IMHO. They will do as they are told and elect who the establishment wants for emperor, most likely Shillary. And of course Shillary will promise more free stuff and say whatever is necessary to sway the rubes.

      And if all that is not enough, the powers that be will just rig the vote count. Heads they win, tails you lose.

      Mar 19, 2016 19:09 AM

      People are just fed up with all the nonsense that has been happening in US politics for many years and want real change not business as usual.

      Perhaps. Some for sure. But the majority are still asleep IMHO. They will do as they are told and elect who the establishment wants for emperor, most likely Shillary. And of course Shillary will promise more free stuff and say whatever is necessary to sway the rubes.

      And if all that is not enough, the powers that be will just rig the vote count. Heads they win, tails you lose.

        Mar 19, 2016 19:12 AM

        Agree of course.

        GH
        Mar 19, 2016 19:41 PM

        Absolutely, asleep. Having a bad dream. But do they understand the situation? Very little understanding or will to understand.

          Mar 19, 2016 19:52 PM

          I tell you Mr. Big Al and GH, I have no idea who the next emperor…er prez will be. I don’t even know who the nominees will be.

          But if I had to bet money I would say barring an indictment which I don’t think is going to happen, it’s Shillary on the Demonrat side.

          On the Republowcon side I think it is clear Trump will win the most primaries but what happens at the convention, who knows.

          If Trump gets it my guess is the PTB would prefer Shillary, but either way they will make sure they get what they want in the end.

          The only thing I know for sure is that who ever heads the Demonrat and Republowcon tickets they won’t give a rat’s @ass about people like me.

          These parties don’t, won’t and never have represented me.

          If you want to know how it works you really should have a look at THIS

            GH
            Mar 20, 2016 20:57 AM

            Fantastic graphic–that’s going to family and friends for sure!

            Mar 20, 2016 20:14 PM

            A lot of truth in what you are saying, Eddie E!

      Mar 19, 2016 19:29 AM

      Of course Mr TRACY

    Mar 19, 2016 19:18 AM

    Avi
    I really enjoyed your segment this week, especially the GDX analysis. I would REALLY like to see what your charts would show for the silver miner junior ETF: SILJ
    Brian

      Mar 19, 2016 19:17 AM

      I agree, Brian. He humbly and PROFESSIONALLY changed his outlook based on the evidence while most who have been looking for a top have just stubbornly dug their heels in. I agree with the potential he sees as well as the caution with which he’s proceeding.

      He’s also right to focus on the miners as THEY are where the real action is and will continue to be. I’ve been saying that for a long time.

      Since SILJ priced in GDX bottomed 7 weeks ago, it has rallied about 50%. I expect this outperformance to continue since silver has lagged gold and is now starting to outperform it.

      I am personally not interested in the seniors but it is important to have exposure to both gold and silver miners, in my opinion.

      SILJ:GDX

      http://schrts.co/o4qs1F

        Mar 19, 2016 19:22 AM

        As always a great chart, Matthew.

        I am considering buying a chunk of the silver producers (AG, GPL, CDE) mostly for trading purposes, as they are easier to buy/sell due to volume and liquidity (The OTC can be challenging with <$1, very wide bid/ask range, and very low volumes.

        Mar 19, 2016 19:56 PM

        Matthew, I am surprised that you bought into his change of opinion.

          Mar 19, 2016 19:17 PM

          I didn’t buy into anything, Dragonite. His new opinion happens to be in line with the one I already had. I don’t follow his calls or know his record but not many analysts are objective enough to change their opinion when it would appear to be riskier to do so. Look at Clive Maund; he just became more married to his view with each passing week that he was wrong.

            Mar 19, 2016 19:57 PM

            There are too many people who care more about being perceived right. It does not help one’s analysis.

            Mar 20, 2016 20:09 AM

            I actually thought you made a very good point there Matthew:

            “not many analysts are objective enough to change their opinion when it would appear to be riskier to do so.”

            I thought this was one of the better segments from Avi in a while just because it seemed more informed on how he was arriving at the targets, and he admitted he was off on the dollar, but laid out his new outlook clearly. For the technical targets he outlined it was interesting to follow along on GDX and see where he could see things heading.

            Mar 20, 2016 20:11 AM

            Poor Clive. I really like him, but no it doesn’t help anyone to get married to a view or thesis. Many days I take a step back, look objectively at what I thought may happen, and realize I’m wrongo in the congo….. back to the drawing board….new plan.

            Mar 20, 2016 20:32 AM

            I agree Ex. Nothing wrong with changing a position when a person gets additional information.

            Mar 20, 2016 20:44 AM

            Yes, it is investors inability to do this that causes them to experience big losses or get wiped out completely.

    b
    Mar 19, 2016 19:29 AM

    https://youtu.be/tjvtSquZkhs

    Programmer Testifies About Rigging Elections With Vote Counting Machines

    I found it. Only about 3k people have watched this, nobody really cares? lol
    What has to happen to the mind to believe elections actually determine anything?
    People see it, hear it,feel it, even smell it, and off they go to vote, amazing really.

      CFS
      Mar 19, 2016 19:47 AM

      I often wonder about government.

      Are employees hired for intelligence or competence?

      https://youtu.be/j62UNxrrDe0

      Or color or party affiliation?

        Mar 19, 2016 19:17 AM

        You often wonder? I more than wonder!

          CFS
          Mar 19, 2016 19:04 PM

          I’m not Hispanic. I know, obviously, Hispanics are a minority voting block. But, just as Blacks, I believe, another minority voting block, gave the edge to Obama’s first election, I look at Trump’s potential for winning.
          Did you know: Seventy seven percent of Hispanics have an unfavorable view on Republican Presidential hopeful Donald Trump, while just 12 percent view him favorably, according to the most recent data from Gallup.
          Just saying!

            Mar 19, 2016 19:02 PM

            I was told by frustrated Chinese Democratic supporters that majority of Chinese in US support Trump. I guess it could be called another voting block. If I am in US,Trump might be my only choice even he is far from ideal. In Canada, majority of Chinese vote Conservatives. It is why Chinese candidates were wiped out in the last Alberta election.

            CFS
            Mar 19, 2016 19:34 PM

            I mentioned Hispanics, Dragonite, because in California, the highest deligate state is where the Hispanics are a controlling voting block if Anglos split evenly.

    Mar 19, 2016 19:01 AM

    For those interested in the GLD holdings (and think the GLD influx is ONE of the main reasons the gold price is rising)

    30% increase in 3 months

    Date / Ounces / Tonnes

    17-Dec-2015 / 20,260,461.73 / 630.17
    18-Mar-2016 / 26,331,177.27 / 818.98

      CFS
      Mar 19, 2016 19:12 PM

      I have a relative, Brian, who used to work in currencies in the City of London.
      I don’t often speak with him, but have recently because he is moving to Zurich.
      He tells me there is a movement of Russian oligarchs out of London to Switzerland.
      He does not know if that is because of possible Brexit or other reasons. He also says that a significant amount of profits of Russian trade, even if in US dollars, is often changed now into gold or Swiss francs, rather than leaving it in US dollars or converting it into GBP or Euros.

      Mar 19, 2016 19:15 PM

      A second look reveals that GLD has accumulated 6.07 M-Oz in 3 months.

      Total world-wide production of gold, for 2015, was 95 M-Oz (or 23.75 M-Oz for 3 months)

      So … for the past 3 months, the GLD influx has accounted for approximately 25% of all mine production.

      I believe this is a FUNDAMENTAL statistic that must be considered, when predicting the future trajectory of gold price

      Brian

        Mar 19, 2016 19:44 PM

        I’ll leave it to another KER poster to do the same calculation for SLV (lazy, me)

    Mar 19, 2016 19:18 AM

    Silver

    I have been looking at Silver TA / Charts (across a number of sites and done by other people).

    There seems to be a better than 50/50 chance that Silver is heading towards the $US18-19 region. My action will be to buy SILJ (Or buying equal amounts of AG,GPL, CDE) for a trend-trade.

      Mar 19, 2016 19:52 AM

      Brian: I own both GPL and CDE along with HL. Happy with all of them. CDE seems to move with greater % moves. HL seems to be affected by it’s gold components more than in the past. Another thing, many of the big boys can’t buy into any issue less than $5. This would seem to favor CDE at the moment and likely HL in the near future. Remember, HL has been around for over a 100 years so lots of history.
      Good luck.

        Mar 19, 2016 19:18 AM

        I would chalk up Hecla’s underperformance to its relatively safer profile. Big moves are the result of significant changes to a company’s situation or outlook. Riskier companies (generally speaking) enjoy the most significant such changes when the metals turn up.

        Leverage can come from many angles.

          Mar 19, 2016 19:10 PM

          I’d also say that Hecla has more exposure to Gold now, and it may not get the multiplier of more heavily weighted to Silver. I actually use it as a more conservative mining anchor because it is more stable than many.

          Speaking of SILVER STOCKS……

          Composite chart showing how well some of the smaller producers have stacked up to some of the larger Silver producers over the last few months since the bottom.

          Silvercorp, Impact Silver, Great Panther Silver, AZ mining (should be Arizona Mining now, but Stockcharts hasn’t updated yet – was Wildcat Silver), Coeur Mining, Americas Silver Corp, Endeavour Silver, Fortuna, Hecla, and Silver Standard Resources.

          http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?SVMLF,IPT.V,GPL,AZ.TO,CDE,USAPF,EXK,FSM,HL,SSRI&p=2&O=111000

            Mar 19, 2016 19:43 PM

            Ex
            Thanks, as always, for the time you spend putting together these comparison charts.
            FWIW, I actually did a rare (for me) trend trade on CDE and made +100%.
            Brian

            P.S. I forgive you for omitting Alexco (Not a producer right now)
            😉

            Mar 20, 2016 20:25 AM

            Way to go on CDE. It has had a stunning move out of the January low for a larger company, but it had sold down to the point of being ridiculous, so it was warranted.

            Yes, I had Alexco on, but swapped it out with AZ Mining (really it should be Arizona Mining), because I thought they were producing….at least I was pretty sure when they were Wildcat Silver that they had started small amounts of trial production. At present they are just gearing up to go into production, so I’ll swap them out with Alexco (since Alexco’s mine on care and maintenance may get swinging again if Silver does make a run for $18.)……and I’m a shareholder again too 🙂

            P.S. – Alexco has outperformed almost all of the producers on this run, so imagine what will happen when it actually goes back into production again……

            http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?SVMLF,IPT.V,GPL,AXU,CDE,USAPF,EXK,FSM,HL,SSRI&p=2&O=111000

            Mar 20, 2016 20:44 AM

            Brian, just as follow up on this previous thread, it looks like my pick of Silvercorp for a small producer has done pretty good.
            _______________________________________________________________________

            On February 29, 2016 at 11:49 am,
            Brian says:

            Excelsior and Mathew

            What would be your #1 favorite (READ: Most potential for gains with some risk) silver miner stock, after Alexco, Impact, Americas, and Avino? I would like to do some research.

            Or maybe, It’s time to by some SLW and just relax?

            Berian

            On February 29, 2016 at 12:31 pm,
            Matthew says:

            And your #1 favorite, Ex? Drum roll please…

            On February 29, 2016 at 12:52 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Matthew – If we take out Alexco, Impact, Americas Silver, and Avino Silver & Gold?

            My # 1 longer term Mid-tier Silver producer (minus the above stocks) is Silvercorp.

            (I own or recently owned Aurcana, Great Panther, Hecla, Endeavour and Fortuna and like them all for different reasons)

            My #1 Speculative company is Nicola Mining

            (Kootenay, Arizona Mining, Bear Creek, Bayhorse Silver, and Dolly Varden as others I’m considering)

            I also have considered just buying Silver Wheaton and the ETF (SILJ) and never thinking about investing in individual stocks again and just letting it ride…….

            Mar 20, 2016 20:06 PM

            Silver has begun to outperform gold — Commerzbank
            Cecilia Jamasmie | March 18, 2016

            “Because silver has noticeably outperformed gold of late, the gold-silver ratio has decreased from almost 84 at the end of last month to a good 78, its lowest level since early February,” Commerzbank says in a research note Friday.

            http://www.mining.com/silver-has-begun-to-outperform-gold-commerzbank/

        Mar 19, 2016 19:38 PM

        The $5 share Price is something I had not considered. Thank you for that information.

        The other share price target of $1 is meaningful, also, from a trading standpoint, as a limit order is required to purchase sub $1 share price stocks.

          Mar 20, 2016 20:29 AM

          I have to place a limit order on any shares under $3.

          As for big boys investing in the smaller companies, they still buy shares of the ETFs (SIL) and (SIL).

          Here are the companies inside of SIL that benefit and their weighting inside the ETF:

          Tahoe Resources Inc. 13.95%
          Fresnillo PLC 12.98%
          Silver Wheaton Corp. 12.75%
          Industrias Penoles SAB de CV 9.71%
          Polymetal International Plc 5.45%
          First Majestic Silver Corp. 4.91%
          Pan American Silver Corp. 4.64%
          MAG Silver Corp. 4.59%
          Alamos Gold Inc. 4.44%
          Hecla Mining Company 4.31%
          Primero Mining Corp. 4.11%
          Silver Standard Resources Inc. 4.02%
          Coeur Mining, Inc. 3.71%
          Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. 3.31%
          McEwen Mining Inc. 2.40%
          Endeavour Silver Corp. 1.60%
          Hochschild Mining plc 1.41%
          Silvercorp Metals Inc. 0.88%
          AuRico Metals Inc 0.47%
          Bear Creek Mining Corporation 0.36%

            Mar 20, 2016 20:31 AM

            Here are the Silver companies and weighting that benefit in (SILJ):

            PureFunds ISE Junior Silver (Small Cap Miners/Explorers) ETF – SILJ

            FIRST MAJESTIC SILVER CORP AG 16.58777266
            MAG SILVER CORP COM MAG CN 11.87311342
            PAN AMERICAN SILVER CORP PAA CN 11.69834785
            COEUR MINING INC. CDE 6.051493612
            SILVERCORP METAL INC COM SVM CN 5.396700282
            ENDEAVOUR SILVER CORP EXK 5.099721141
            HOCHSCHILD MINING HOC LN 4.703019229
            FORTUNA SILVER MINES INC COM FVI CN 4.482974322
            MANDALAY RES CORP COM MND CN 4.002089312
            SIERRA METALS INC SMT CN 3.734400386
            GREAT PANTHER SILVER LTD GPL 3.676914669
            SABINA GOLD & SILVER CORP COM SBB CN 3.352375075
            SILVER STANDARD RESOURCES SSO CN 2.981123988
            ALEXCO RESOURCE CORP AXU 2.966294121
            BEAR CREEK MNG CORP COM BCM CN 2.465613838
            MIRASOL RES LTD COM MRZ CN 2.107996502
            TREVALI MINING CORP TV CN 2.107600987
            AMERICAS SILVER CORP USA CN 2.04955291
            IMPACT SILVER CORP IPT CN 0.670122699
            SANTACRUZ SILVER MNG LTD SCZ CV 0.575560246
            GOLDEN MINERALS CO AUMN 0.459339669
            MINCO SILVER CORP COM MSV CN 0.455483981
            EXCELLON RESOURCES INC EXN CN 0.391371774
            AURCANA CORPORATION AUN CN 0.353652876
            KOOTENAY SILVER INC KTN CN 0.323368699

            Mar 20, 2016 20:41 AM

            Here’s my SILVER Watch-list. Please let me know if I forgot any companies that anyone is following. I’m pretty sure this covers it but there may be more Gold/Silver companies to add at the bottom:
            ___________________________________________________________________________

            SILVER STOCKS & ETFs Symbol

            ALEXCO RESOURCE CORPORATION AXU
            AMERICAN SILVER MINING COMPANY ASLM
            AMERICAS SILVER CORP USAPF
            APOGEE SILVER LTD AGEEF
            AURA SILVER RESOURCES LTD AUSVF
            AURCANA CORPORATION AUNFF
            AVINO SILVER & GOLD MINES LTD ASM
            AVRUPA MINERALS LTD AVPMF
            ARIZONA MINING INC WLDVF
            BAYHORSE SILVER KXPLF
            BEAR CREEK MINING CORPORATION BCEKF
            CANARC RESOURCE CORPORATION CRCUF
            CANASIL RESOURCES INC CNSUF
            COEUR MINING INC CDE
            DOLLY VARDEN SILVER DOLLF
            DEFIANCE SILVER CORP DNCVF
            ENDEAVOUR SILVER CORPORATION EXK
            EXCELLON RESOURCES INC EXLLF
            FIRST MAJESTIC SILVER CORPORATION AG
            FORTUNA SILVER MINES INC FSM
            FRESNILLO PLC LONDON FNLPF
            GOLDEN MINERALS CO AUMN
            GREAT PANTHER SILVER LIMITED GPL
            HOCHSCHILD MINING PLC HCHDF
            IMPACT SILVER CORPORATION ISVLF
            KOOTENAY SILVER INC KOOYF
            LEVON RES LIMITED LVNVF
            MAG SILVER CORPORATION MVG
            MAX RESOURCE CORPORATION MXROF
            MINCO SILVER CORPORATION MISVF
            MINES MANAGEMENT INC MGN
            MIRASOL RESOURCES LTD MRZLF
            NICOLA MNG INC HUSIF
            OREX MINERALS ORMNF
            PAN AMERICAN SILVER CORPORATION PAAS
            SANTACRUZ SILVER MINING LTD SZSMF
            SIERRA METALS INC DBEXF
            SILVER BULL RESOURCES INC SVBL
            SILVER DRAGON RESOURCES SDRG
            SILVER RANGE RESOURCES LTD SLRRF
            SILVER STANDARD RESOURCES INC SSRI
            SILVER WHEATON CORPORATION SLW
            SILVERCREST METALS INC SVCMF
            SOUTHERN SILVER EXPLORATION CORPORATION SSVFF
            TAHOE RESOURCES INC TAHO
            TREVALI MINING CORP TREVF
            VENA RESOURCES INC VNARF

            SILVER ETFs and SILVER FUNDS

            CREDIT SUISSE X-LINKS SILVER SHARES COVERED SLVO
            ETFS PHYSICAL SILVER SHARES SIVR
            Global X Silver Miners ETF SIL
            iShares MSCI Global Silver Miners ETF SLVP
            ISHARES SILVER SHARES SLV
            POWER SHARES DB SILVER DBS
            PROSHARES ULTRA SHORT SILVER ZSL
            PUREFUNDS ISE JUNIOR SILVER SILJ
            SPROTT PHYSICAL SILVER TRUST ETF PSLV
            VELOCITYSHS 3X LONG SILVER USLV

            GOLD & SILVER COMPANIES

            COMSTOCK MINING LODE
            HECLA MINING COMPANY HL
            KLONDEX MINES KLDX
            MANDALAY RESOURCES CORP MNDJF
            MAYA GOLD & SILVER MYAGF
            MCEWEN MINING MUX
            PARMOUNT GOLD & SILVER CORP PZG
            SABINA GOLD & SILVER CORP SGSVF

            Mar 20, 2016 20:55 AM

            I left this one off – Not a key company but it stands to prosper from a 15% off-take agreement with Golden Minerals Co.

            – Prospero Silver Corp PSRVF (added to Silver list)

            Mar 20, 2016 20:32 AM

            I guess I should included Argonaut Gold with the Gold/Silver Companies at the bottom:

            Statistics – 2016E 2015 2014 2013 2012

            Gold Ounces Produced 53K- 57K 55,056 40,535 22,544 20,369
            Silver Ounces Produced 180,720 192,837 153,548 169,673 132,805
            ______________________________________________________________

            Latest Corporate Presentation for Argonaut Gold:

            http://www.argonautgold.com/_resources/presentations/Q4_and_YE_2015_Conference_Call_final_v2.pdf

            Mar 20, 2016 20:40 AM

            For clarity that was just for Argonaut’s “La Colorada” mine.

            On their other Mine it is primarily Gold:

            Gold Ounces Produced – El Castillo Mine:

            2016E 2015 2014 2013 2012
            75K-80K 79,751 92,500 94,804 87,712

            Their Magino and San Antonia assets are primarily Gold, but their San Augustin project has a very nice Silver Credit.

            Mar 20, 2016 20:28 PM

            SFJ Core Holdings {Video Analysis}
            Morris Hubbartt – March 18, 2016

            Good video with Chart Analysis on the following companies:

            First Majestic, DRDGold, Torex Gold, Endeavour Mining, Seabridge, OceanaGold, McEwen Mining, Harmony Gold….

            http://www.superforcesignals.com/video/2016mar17sfj/2016mar17sfj.html

    Mar 19, 2016 19:34 AM

    Thanks for one of the best week-end shows in a while. Al, Cory I only wished I’d have come across your site years ago. Certain that I’d be a rich man but likely not any happier. Anyway, wanted to let you know I’ve learned a tremendous amount. Listening to your show, guests, comments and thoughts is far more valuable to me than all the econ and finance courses I paid good money for in the past. Keep up the good work. As the kids in Vietnam used to say, Numba One.

      Mar 19, 2016 19:21 AM

      Many thanks, Silverdollar

    Mar 19, 2016 19:39 AM

    Caterpillar sees Q1 revenue, profit below
    Wall Street estimates
    Caterpillar forecast first-quarter profit and
    revenue well below Wall Street
    expectations, prompting questions from
    some analysts on its full-year outlook.
    Caterpillar said at an industrials
    conference in London it “remained
    comfortable” with its full-year sales and
    profit outlook. It said it
    expects first quarter
    2016 sales and revenue to be in a range of
    $9.3 billion to $9.4 billion. Analysts had
    expected about $10.3 billion. The company
    also said 2016 profit for the quarter would
    be 50 to 55 cents per share, or 65 to 70
    cents per share excluding restructuring
    costs. Analysts had expected 97 cents per
    share on average, excluding restructuring.
    The global slowdown in mining and
    construction activity has cut demand for
    Caterpillar’s products and the company

    And that is why the stock has shot up. Makes a lot of sense.

      Mar 19, 2016 19:19 AM

      Of course it makes absolutely no sense. But then again, what does make sense?

      Mar 20, 2016 20:02 PM

      CAT sales show mining slump only getting worse
      Caterpillar sales drop 42% as Asia-Pacific and Latin America orders fall off a cliff
      Frik Els | March 18, 2016

      With sales and operations at the ends of the earth, few companies are in a better position to take the pulse of the global economy and the resource sector in particular than Caterpillar.

      The world’s number one heavy equipment manufacturer has been hit hard by the decline in mining and construction – sales are down more than $20 billion from its peak just four years ago after a drop of over $8 billion last year.

      And things are only getting worse in 2016. Much worse.

      After a flicker of hope in January when the rate of decline seemed to slow at least in some regions, Caterpillar’s latest sales figures released today shows a renewed slump in the sector.

      Sales to the mining industry make up 19% of total sales for the Peoria, Illinois-based giant (quarrying and aggregates account for another 10%) and worldwide sales to the sector dropped 42% in February on a rolling 3-month average basis.

      CAT sales show mining slump only getting worse
      Overall sales have been falling for 39 months straight.

      Earlier this week Caterpillar warned of a 40% fall in revenues for the first quarter again led by lower sales into the resources industry.

      With the release of its full year earning in January Chairman and CEO Doug Oberhelman said the company hasn’t seen any signs of improvement and was reluctant to predict a bottom for the industry

      http://www.mining.com/cat-sales-show-mining-slump-only-getting-worse/

    Mar 19, 2016 19:12 AM

    If oil volatility has declined substantially it might be time soon for it to pick up again rather than a signal of much higher prices in the short term.

    Mar 19, 2016 19:47 AM

    Al, I just hope & trust that everyone that visits here at least has a core position (insurance) in the actual metals. I’m surprised premiums are still respectable. If & when the price breaks out, premiums will escalate as well.
    Ownership is well worth mentioning on a regular basis.

      Mar 19, 2016 19:40 AM

      Agree, Marty!

    Mar 19, 2016 19:24 AM

    I hate it when the VELVET HAMMER comes out………….. hard to post and reply. 🙂

    Mar 19, 2016 19:35 PM

    Martenson: “I love Bernie.” Socialism is evil. The economics of socialism is evil, based as it is on THEFT! And here I thought you (Al) understood economics.

      b
      Mar 19, 2016 19:56 PM

      Socialism isnt evil in the least.
      Think how many people got put out of work by magically producing fish to give away, for free, no charge. lol
      Thats gotta be socialism.

      What is evil, imo, is killing the planet and/or its species for profit.

      When the “replicators” get invented, no one will have to work or need money for anything ever again, we are not to far from that I bet.
      What will we call that?

        Mar 19, 2016 19:28 PM

        To say that socialism isn’t evil is to say that slavery or unprovoked violence isn’t evil.

          Mar 19, 2016 19:13 PM

          Socialism is definitely a poison which makes any country which adopts it poor. And at same time their pollution to the planet is actually worse since people are not motivated to work on the pollution control.

            b
            Mar 19, 2016 19:50 PM

            The only things better than socialism would be monarchy or communism.
            When I was a kid, on a magazine cover was a soviet jet shooting down santa in his sleigh, the pilot shaking his fist snarling “die capitalist pig”.
            I always liked that cover. lol

            Lets agree to disagree.

            Mar 19, 2016 19:36 PM

            During Communist times in Poland,
            My business partners parents would load up a wooden chest of goodies and send it back home to Poland every 3 months for the family who still lived there.
            It contained basics that were hard or impossible at times to get there without long queing in lines for often hours…be it coffee,tea, band aids, aspirin etc.
            They’d also stuff in what were so called luxury food items over there, plus bottles of Scotch which could be barted for other stuff they wanted via the black market.
            They once sent over a large jar of Vegemite in the crate,
            They (as usual) got a very thankfull letter for everything….but were told not to send any Vegemite again as they thought it was the worst boot polish they had ever used. 🙂
            Cheers.

            Mar 19, 2016 19:07 PM

            B, I’ll agree that you’re fine with criminal behavior.

            Mar 19, 2016 19:31 PM

            Sheeta, you are right. Under communism, everything is in shortage except poverty. Communism is a form of extreme socialism.

            b
            Mar 20, 2016 20:21 AM

            Thats funny skeeta, but I might have thought it boot polish too. I had to google it to find out what it is.

            b
            Mar 20, 2016 20:30 AM

            Just for kicks.
            Skeetas example of shortage, Poland was not the only place those items were tuff to get at the time. Camaroon for example or even the Canadian north.
            Also, Poland was never communist, (you guys mix things sometimes) the entire soviet union was a dictatorship.

            I never lived in the soviet union but I was best man to a fellow that escaped from Czechoslovakia, he left of course but there were positives to go with the negatives.

            b
            Mar 20, 2016 20:46 AM

            Mathew, we being “capitalist” have zero criminal behavior?
            None from Bush? Clintons? Lincon? FDR? Wilson? Pharmaceutical industry? Military complex? Police? Politicians? Lawyers? Judges? Religions? Oil industry? and on and on and on.

            No criminality with capitalism alright, criminality is not the difference.

            Socialism steels other peoples money? uuhhhmmm excuse me, our capitalist ideals have us steeling entire nations, you guys gotta do better than criminal behavior.

            Well, when we bomb somebody it is for their own good,and when we get bombed they are terrorists thats true, but criminal behavior? You should be able to do better than that.

            Canada needs a monarchy, Wayne G should be our first King, King Wayne, nice ring to it.

            Mar 20, 2016 20:28 AM

            Lot of truth in that b!

            GH
            Mar 20, 2016 20:04 AM

            b, funny how you and I so often agree on the nature of the crimes being committed, when few others do (or at least don’t comment about it), but when it comes to solutions we’re virtually 180 degrees opposed.

            My simple principle: I don’t care what you call the system, if it tends to concentrate power into fewer and fewer hands it’s bad. The specifics we could go round and round on, but it wouldn’t be worth the typing.

            b
            Mar 20, 2016 20:23 AM

            I agree with you GH.
            I say it as “we need a new system”
            I dont know what it is tho. So, alota help I am.

            I actually dont think any of our options are sustainable, well for 10 thousand years, say.
            All of them seem to last a few hundred.

            As to power to fewer people,Im on a board of a condo complex, the main reason I would prefer Monarchy, lol

            Mar 20, 2016 20:15 AM

            I am the past president of our Board and you are in manny cases absolutely correct!

            Mar 20, 2016 20:23 AM

            B – communism IS dictatorship!

            Re: “Mathew, we being “capitalist” have zero criminal behavior?
            None from Bush? Clintons? Lincon? FDR? Wilson? Pharmaceutical industry? Military complex? Police? Politicians? Lawyers? Judges? Religions? Oil industry? and on and on and on.”
            ———

            What are you talking about? First of all, criminals will ALWAYS exist. ALWAYS! Second, what you listed, from Bush to FDR, has nothing to do with anything. None of those presidents were friends of free markets and it is absurd to suggest that they were.

            The problems you see with the military industrial complex, pharma, oil, etc., are the result of government. Such alliances and the favors that result are socialistic NOT capitalistic in nature. Central authority and the arbitrary power that is used to tilt the playing field in favor of a special few (at the expense of society) IS socialism.

            Socialism is inherently unsound (against nature), which is why it always fails. It is FORCE. Capitalism is COOPERATION. You’ve been brainwashed from every angle by your socialist masters to believe the opposite. Everything that you THINK is wrong with capitalism is due to the ever encroaching and corrupting influences of very socialistic power.

            The 20th century was the bloodiest in human history because of socialism. The entire global population needs to get a clue — but they won’t, I guarantee it.

            Mar 20, 2016 20:47 AM

            Sorry Al, but there is no truth in what B is saying. The socialists and their cronies are stealing TRILLIONS. The guys B calls capitalists aren’t capitalists at all since they’re all in bed with various governments and HATE competition.

            Mar 20, 2016 20:48 AM

            Btw, Jeff Deist or Peter Schiff would probably be happy to explain it further.

            Mar 20, 2016 20:00 PM

            One more thing B. Socialism can’t exist without theft (force/violence).

            Capitalism is a social system based on the principle of individual rights. Politically, it is the system of laissez-faire (freedom). Legally it is a system of objective laws (rule of law as opposed to rule of man). Economically, when such freedom is applied to the sphere of production its result is the free-market. (That great definition came from http://capitalism.org/ )

            There will always be criminals but the difference between socialism and capitalism is that socialism itself is criminal, no matter how it’s done, while capitalism is absolutely not.

            b
            Mar 20, 2016 20:38 PM

            Mathew, are you trying to tell me capitalism exists?
            Like the “american dream” its an illusion.
            Socialism is force? uummmm, what was the U.S. for the last 70 years?
            My mistake, 200 years, I forgot they negotiated a nice friendly peace with the natives.

            Thats your capitilism Mathew, murder and steel for profit, wether its people,animals the water or the very air we breath.
            Maybe the other forms are force too, that would be hard to disagree with, but capitalism better? A crockawhalesh@tmaboy, as we would say in the forces. lol

            Mar 20, 2016 20:20 PM

            He is a admitted anarchist bb. The guy has no idea what terms like free markets and capitalism even mean. What he wants is another system of theft that most people are unfamiliar with and one where he can operate undetected.

            Steal from the poor and line your own fat pockets with filthy lucre.

            That is what Anarchy is all about. But they call it capitalism to make it sound nice.

            Mar 20, 2016 20:38 PM

            B, your ignorance is criminal.

        Mar 20, 2016 20:34 PM

        If fish were free, people wouldn’t have to work. Socialism is FORCING (with a gun or the threat of a gun) producers to “share” their wealth with non-producers. That is and always will be a recipe for economic disaster.

        Jesus didn’t magically produce anything. The Word Incarnate performed miracles to validate His message: “Repent, for the Kingdom of God is at hand.”

        Since the beginning men have WORKED to devise a way out of WORK. So far, the best thing they have come up with is STEALING . . . from WORKERS. That practice, when institutionalized, is SOCIALISM!

          Mar 20, 2016 20:54 PM

          Exactly, Wayne, yet the morons of the world think socialism is somehow synonymous with justice or charity.

            b
            Mar 20, 2016 20:52 PM

            My ignorance? You guys are “whacked”
            Socialisim is at the barrel of a gun, uummmm, were there not guns involved with the war of independence?
            Course that capitalism had nothing to do with slavery and genocide, yup, capitalism is great.

            Theres no dif people between the systems,there are people running things and other people living with whatever rules are made.

            Theory is another story, you might theoretically show one has advantages worth pursuing, but when it comes down to how they actually work, ask the people sleeping on the streets in american cities how its working for them, better yet, Brazil, more capitalist than the states, good grief look at them now.

            Now ask the football stars and film stars, of course they love it.
            Same goes for other systems, there will always be successful people in any system, and people that end up sleepin on the street.

            Capitalism, profit, 30 silver pcs, its killing us.
            Lets keep investing in guns and gold mining, like we need more of either.

            but, to itch his own, I itch my own.

            b
            Mar 20, 2016 20:28 PM

            I just noticed your comment Mathew, “capitalism based on individual rights”.
            that is truly funny, you need to watch some George Carlin (that guy was smart),
            anyway, as he says, you have 1 right, you have the right of “right this way”.
            Straight to the camp. Thats your right Mathew, your capitalism is an illusion, as is democracy. neither exist.
            but what the heck, so are time and space.

            Mar 20, 2016 20:55 PM

            Guns are almost always involved but that doesn’t exclude the possibility of justice, real justice, not the kind you, b, subscribe to, the kind that so easily falls from your lips. No one is above or equal to the law. The law comes from above, that is why no one is above to equal to it. Now, the Lawgiver from above is God. But the lawgiver for atheist b is god, the god of b’s vain imagination, because b thinks the law can come from man and at the SAME TIME AND IN THE SAME RELATIONSHIP come from above. This can never be. It is nonsense, or as b would say, “Whacked.”

            Mar 20, 2016 20:13 PM

            Your ignorance is complete, B.

            First, you said above that capitalism doesn’t exist so I would like to know how you can blame it for all the BS that you’re trying pin on it?

            Second, what do the actions of the U.S. government and its assorted cronies have to do with capitalism? Have you had a brain injury?

            Third, what do you not understand about the difference between individuals cooperating and little scumbags taking what isn’t theirs?

            Your beliefs make you the enemy of civilized people everywhere no matter how common your beliefs are.

            You are obviously unteachable.

            b
            Mar 20, 2016 20:37 PM

            Wayne, you have zero idea what I subscribe to.
            Definately not your beliefs tho.
            Oh, and justice? Justice my butt, at best revenge, even your god is vengeful if I recall.

            Of course capitilism doesnt exist, as soon as you have a “bail out” poof.
            Capitilism allows bankruptcy last I heard.

            And if your trying to say a government is dif than its system….
            Im unteachable by you, well duh
            My beliefs make me an enemy? lol Ya ever hear of democracy? Everyone gets an opinion,
            maybe deep down you prefer something else? (not that I think we have a democracy, thats your belief, or so you say)

            Anyway, its been fun gettin you guys goin. lol
            thats all I was tryin to do, you guys gotta lighten up. Lifes short.

            King Wayne, spread the word. Anyone that can score 92 deserves to be king.
            Elvis was just an imitation,probly an alien anyway.

            Mar 20, 2016 20:03 PM

            Sorry B, you AND democracy are the enemy. Criminal is criminal no matter how many idiots vote that it is not.

            b
            Mar 20, 2016 20:06 PM

            Mathew?!?
            Democracy is the enemy?
            ah ha, the truth comes out, you would prefer Monarchy,dictatorship, or communism.
            There are a few other option but I forget them right now, too long since I read Plato I guess.
            Which one do you prefer?
            Democracy is the weakest form so I dont blame you.

            Mar 20, 2016 20:24 PM

            Wow, another brilliant comment B. Since you ignored your buddy Birdman, why don’t you start with a free book and then tell me what you think I prefer.

            https://mises.org/library/anatomy-state

            Even the audio version is free if reading isn’t your thing.

    Mar 19, 2016 19:23 PM

    I have seen 42.50 or so mentioned for the WTI oil peak on Friday but I only saw a little above 41. Brent did touch 42.50.

      Mar 19, 2016 19:36 PM

      Paul L. – WTI put in a triple top on Friday of $42.45, $42.46, and $42.46 on the futures contract which is what dictates the Oil pricing on CNBC, Yahoo, Bloomberg, etc…

      That’s why I wrote on Thursday’s market wrap on Friday morning and wrote:

      “I mentioned yesterday that for WTI Oil that the $42.41, and $42.58 (2 significant prior troughs) and $42.52 (200 day EMA) represent the most likely resistance, so if Oil gets up to $42.50 then I’m going to heavily short Oil. [I did add to my DWTI position this morning at the $118.21 price point]

      Here is Fridays chart for your veiwing pleasure.

      https://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=CLK16.NYM+Interactive#

        Mar 19, 2016 19:54 PM

        I meant to say I did not see the 42.50 price. But now I noticed you are looking at then new May contract. On the old contract it touched a bit above 41.

        Mar 21, 2016 21:07 AM

        The chart I posted above has rolled over to the next day now, but you can click on the “5 day” tab and still see the triple top on Friday at $42.46.

        So far in overseas trading Oil is down to $40.63, so at least that resistance level did deflect Oil’s price rise back down. For how long and how low remains to be seen.

    Mar 19, 2016 19:37 PM

    It is NOT nice to see Gary’s comment deleted.
    I’m on this blog to learn from all the great people here.
    And don’t forget that we will ALL die a day. 🙂

    Mar 19, 2016 19:39 PM

    It’s not nice to see Gary’s comments deleted.
    I’m on this blog to learn from all the great people here.
    And don’t forget that we will always die a day 🙂

    Mar 19, 2016 19:06 PM

    Hope so too…………This goes way back……so, my thoughts are he has been concerned for a long time…….That would negate the thought that he is a Trojan horse, in respect to HILLERY SUPPORTER.

    Mar 19, 2016 19:07 PM

    Trump has done some bad things in the past that I don’t agree with but he is not all about himself as much as when he was younger, now he cares about what is happening in his country. Times have changed in fifty years and so has Trump, isn’t that what should matter in life. DT

      Mar 19, 2016 19:13 PM

      DICK……..every man is without fault……..and all have sinned……….

      CFS
      Mar 19, 2016 19:41 PM

      DT on some issues Trump has flipped, flopped and flipped back again, all inside one week.
      He never says he hasn’t decided yet or does not know; so it is very hard to be inspired by his convictions.

        Mar 20, 2016 20:09 PM

        What are his convictions, Professor?

    Mar 19, 2016 19:11 PM

    DICK…………..RELAX , THIS is hide and seek nite……………..

    Mar 19, 2016 19:45 PM

    Right you lot, I’m off to bed now as I need to dream of rabbit holes.
    Nighty-Night.

    Mar 19, 2016 19:02 PM

    The bubble of TBTF……………look out derivatives …. Irish posted a great tape on bubbles……….the next shoe to drop…………

      CFS
      Mar 19, 2016 19:55 PM

      FFM, I don’t believe derivatives per se will fail.
      I believe a bank will fail, causing counter-party problems, which will collapse the unbelievably large derivatives market.

    Mar 19, 2016 19:16 PM

    Chart of the us/cdn dollar. The Cdn dollar is likely to turn lower soon with oil which is due for a correction too. Turn at around 1.28 or sooner.

    Mar 19, 2016 19:25 PM

    More gov’t controls coming:
    IRS back taxes may mean really getting grounded
    http://www.cnbc.com/2016/03/19/irs-back-taxes-may-mean-really-getting-grounded.html

    PF
    Mar 19, 2016 19:55 PM

    Voting fraud? The reason Trump has no chance to win a general election is because he will lose the black & latino vote very badly and because many Republicans will refuse to vote for him.

      Mar 20, 2016 20:34 AM

      PF….I have to disagree about the black vote. For years & years the establishment shit on the US blacks. Then along came Obama & they saw him as the messiah, in his first four years he did very little for them, so they gave him another four years, now today eight years on they are no better off, & that goes for the non black voters as well. That’s why Trump is doing so well , the ordinary people are now starting to wake up , they are fed up with been used & abused by the uncaring bastards in congress……….The people want to try something different.

        PF
        Mar 20, 2016 20:08 PM

        Trump had a chance to denounce the KKK during an interview on CNN. Instead, he lied about not knowing who David Duke was. Do you really think African Americans are going to vote for someone who feels indifferent about racism like him?

      Mar 20, 2016 20:11 PM

      Agree, Pf

    Mar 20, 2016 20:41 AM

    Things are going from bad to worse…..
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-19/kkk-dressed-nazi-saluting-protester-beaten-black-trump-supporter-arizona-rally
    Expect a lot more of this in the coming months.

    Mar 20, 2016 20:31 AM

    Weekly Outlook: 21-25 March
    https://sasafuturestrading.wordpress.com/

    b
    Mar 20, 2016 20:08 AM

    Posts jumped around.

    Anyway, I dont think it matters who is president.
    I also think it is delusion to believe people have a choice

    https://youtu.be/tjvtSquZkhs
    Programmer Testifies About Rigging Elections With Vote Counting Machines

    Anyone remember the Ron Paul votes not counted? Was it hanging chads that beat Gore?
    We dont choose our presidents.

      Mar 20, 2016 20:24 AM

      B, did you hear what Chris M said?

    Mar 20, 2016 20:10 AM

    The Republican Party keeps forging ahead deciding that Trump is what the people don’t want, but no what the public wants is TRUMP. What a farce!

    Mar 20, 2016 20:14 AM

    The Republican Party keeps forging ahead deciding that the people don’t want Trump, but no what the people want is TRUMP. What a farce!

      Mar 20, 2016 20:22 AM

      Welcome to craziness Mr TRACY.

    LPG
    Mar 20, 2016 20:02 AM

    GREAT little article from Martin Armstrong on his website today:

    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/basic-concepts/feel-the-beat-survive/

    I suggest EVERYONE to have a read/look, especially the section/paragraph where he discusses MARKET MANIPULATIONS.

    ****

    For those who are not familiar with Martin, he was probably one of the most successful hedge fund managers back in the 90s, managing billions of dollars, and often being on the other side of trades made by boys such those at Goldman Sachs, yet prevailing.
    He has therefore, imho, 1st hand experience of 1) managing money on global markets, 2) recognizing trends, and 3) trading against “manipulators” wannabe.
    So again, I suggest everyone pays STRICT ATTENTION to his paragraph on market manipulation in his article. Just to get some perspective.

    Martin is also, IMHO, the “master of cycles”, something he started to use while trading/investing as early as the 80’s, when no-one was using them.

    Most people/so called “analysts” who currently use “cycles” these days, imho, pay strict attention to what he says (and often plagiarize his views), whether they admit it publicly or not.

    Best to all,

    LPG

      Mar 20, 2016 20:29 PM

      LPG, are you sure that no one was using cycles or don’t you think it was just an elite few until Martin took it mainstream? Gann understood cycles decades before Martin was born.

      I do agree that he knows his stuff and that a lot of people pretend his views are theirs but I have wondered about his transparency when it comes to his publicly available info.

      Mother nature is definitely stronger than the manipulators and absolutely everything in nature is cyclical.

      Governments and the big banks have and always will manipulate markets but with the associated risks comes great potential for reward so I’ve never been one to bitch about it.

      “Silver has been the target of the same old manipulators as usual. So be very careful in this market.” —Martin Armstrong, 2010

      Cheers!

        LPG
        Mar 20, 2016 20:05 PM

        Hello Matthew,

        Hope all’s well.

        Thanks for your input.

        Maybe I wasn’t clear enough in some of my write-up, or some of the things I wrote could be misinterpreted. When I wrote:
        “Martin is also, IMHO, the “master of cycles””, I didn’t mean he was the “father” of cycles. For ex. Kondratiev and his cycle waves came decades before M.A.

        It is just that to me, Martin is currently the master of cycles. That’s just my opinion.
        And I mention this cause he is the one who, imho, mixes the most successfully, various business, economics, war, civilizational, weather (…) cycles. That’s all.
        So this was just to clarify my initial statement.

        Re: his publicly available info, one thing I have to admit is that his various cycles turning points are ALL advertised quarters if not SEVERAL YEARS well in advance. And it seems he doesn’t change them.
        For me, given these facts, he cannot be criticized for changing the dates of his expected cycle tops and cycle bottoms as he sees reality fits. This is just how I see the things he publishes when it comes to turning dates.

        I’ve mentioned to various people that markets are indeed “manipulated”.
        To me, every of them is, and always has been. ALWAYS.
        To be clear, what do I mean by “manipulated”? I mean that the big pools of money are pressing hard in the direction they want, for they own benefit.
        But this, to me, IS THE ESSENCE of markets. This is the way the game is and has always been played.

        The fact that central banks now are big buyers in the markets don’t mean that there is manipulation. It just means, to me, that there is a new class of market participant in the markets, with deep pockets, and they are called central banks.
        A few decades ago, pension funds were created in the US. They became a big pool of capital as a whole, and a major market participant in the markets –> they became a new reality –> People (other market participants) needed to adapt to this.
        Over the past few decades, Sovereign Wealth Funds Assets have exploded to the upside (mostly curtesy of the run in oil prices in the 2000’s) –> SWFs became major participants in the markets too –> New reality –> People (other market participants) needed to adapt to this too.

        To me, the most important thing, as a trader and an investor, is that nobody can alter the long-term trend.

        Corrections, even 50% ones in long-term bull markets, are ABSOLUTELY NORMAL. (“legendary” commodity trader and investor Jim Rogers spoke several times about it over the past few years). I also note that Jim Rogers said several years ago, after the top, that it wouldn’t touch gold until it touches $1,000.

        There were very good reasons for PMs to correct the way they did. Very good FUNDAMENTAL reasons for the PMs to correct. No need to resort to manipulation theories.

        Unfortunately, most of us take what we view as “fundamentals” as being “the fundamentals”, a proxy for the truth. Most of the time, we just fail to realize that our analysis is incomplete, flawed and ultimately WRONG.
        So what we view as sacro-saints “fundamentals” are just “opinions”. Just that: o-pi-nions.
        So instead of being humble and try to understand what is potentially flawed in our own analysis, some of us (and I AM TRULY NOT AIMING AT ANYONE SPECIFICALLY HERE) just resort to “market manipulation” excuses and theories.

        IMHO, this is not a way to be successful in the long-run. More importantly, this reflects 1) mental/intellectual laziness, 2) lack of accountability for one’s mistakes (mistakes which will always occur), and 3) a lack of understanding that money managements is first and foremost about managing risk.

        I often write or say during interviews “and I can be wrong about it”. It’s not something I write/say to “cover myself” in case I am wrong.
        It just reflects that despite all the effort that I put in my thought and investment process, I recognize that I can make mistakes, and there can be points I totally overlook, and hence my views can ultimately prove to be totally misplaced.

        So if one day I ever come around and say: “that market/stock didn’t go my way, it’s because of manipulation” … please please pleaaaaaase someone just shut me up and tell me to step up my game and work harder on correcting my flawed analysis.

        GL to all investing/trading.

        LPG

          Mar 20, 2016 20:53 PM

          Thanks for that, LPG. Yes, any size correction can be perfectly natural.

      Mar 20, 2016 20:27 PM

      Did’t Martin Armstrong spend several years in prison for financial fraud?

        Mar 20, 2016 20:56 PM

        He did but from what I read many years ago, there was an awful lot wrong with the case and actions against him.

    Mar 20, 2016 20:54 PM

    I used to be all the California immigrants had Utah drivers licenses and no insurance when then hit you.

    Mar 20, 2016 20:55 PM

    It used to be all the immigrants in Cali had Utah Drivers licenses and no insurance when they hit you.

    Mar 20, 2016 20:57 PM

    test, not sure where the posts are landing now!

      Mar 20, 2016 20:26 PM

      If Gary would stop posting this problem with the jumping around would probably end. On the other hand…if Al would stop deleting Gary’s posts so we could freely argue with that blowhard then the posts would also stop jumping around.

      Whaddya say Al. Let that goofball post so the contributors can have a piece of him each day.

    Mar 20, 2016 20:26 PM

    Can we please get back to markets and forget the politics it’s all a dog and pony show anyway!

    Mar 20, 2016 20:31 PM

    For anybody who has 45 minutes to spare…..The truth………
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-20/must-watch-video-veneer-justice-kingdom-crime

    Mar 20, 2016 20:33 PM

    On March 20, 2016 at 3:31 pm,
    irishtony says:

    For anybody who has 45 minutes to spare…..The truth………
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-20/must-watch-video-veneer-justice-kingdom-crime

    Mar 20, 2016 20:37 PM

    Bank of America has a 2000 year end target for the S&P. I think it has a little juice left to maybe around 2070 to 2080 and then a correction which looks overdue.

    Mar 21, 2016 21:51 AM

    So the American vote is been run out of the UK….Interesting.
    Soros..The DEVIL himself has a hoof in all of this….Interesting.
    So just give the below video a little looksy.
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-20/judge-jeanine-republicans-plotting-against-trump-proof-they-are-bed-democrats

    b
    Mar 21, 2016 21:45 AM

    gold going south and my shares are going up.
    really looks kinda bottomy to me.guess it did a mth or so ago. svm I got for 60? cents and now closing in on $2
    Geez, if gold ever does go up I imagine goldshares really will “skyrocket”

    you could be right Farmer, gold headed lower, but it might not matter so much to share prices, the day will come I think when we cant believe how low they actually got.

    Who knows tho I guess. anybody? cause I dont.

    b
    Mar 21, 2016 21:54 AM

    I tried to post and couldnt, maybe this will.

    Anyway, maybe you guys have a “bug” might be an idea to run the antivirus and malware aps.

    Posts are jumping and you were saying you dont know why.